GP & Harlan’s Holiday 2024 | Brian Nadeau

Our friend Brian Nadeau from down there on the simulcast.

You know, I'm from Capital OTB. All kinds of good stuff.

Brian, Jane Nadeau on all of the socials.

Brian, good morning, man. Been a minute.

How are you? Yeah, Louis, good to hear from

you. Happy holidays and doing good

down here. A lot of lot of fun, a lot of

big, big weekend coming championship beats role and

weather's been great so can't complain at all.

There you go. It got down into like the 60s.

Are you OK? Yeah, it's funny you say that,

but I'm like, as an upstate New York guy, I've been down here a

long time now and, and, and I, I totally tapped out of up north

and, and when it, when it's like I, I walked outside one day to

come to work. It was like 62.

And I'm like, you know, this is BS Then I this is, this is no,

I, no, no, no. So, yeah, we get a few of those

days down here. But I'll tell you what,

yesterday I felt like it was about the middle of September.

It was hot and humid. The weekend looks good and going

to be a little cooler this weekend.

So if anybody's in the area down here and they're listening,

please come out and say hi. We should have a big fun day on

Saturday. Yeah, I'm excited for you.

Got a bunch of great steaks on the card.

I, you know, something that's that's developed in the last,

you know, five years, that last decade, Brian, in horse racing

that I think is a real positive. Are these preview weekends

right, where we get to see horses, you know, try to qualify

for a race or whatever it might be?

How long have they been doing this, using the Harless holiday

as a prep for the Pegasus? Yeah, I mean, it was always kind

of, you know, we had the Don back in the day.

So it's kind of been there as a as a prep.

And, you know, the preview days down here are pretty cool too,

because, yeah, I guess you could even say this across the

country, actually, Louis. But I think down here, the

Pegasus is such a big day and we've got horses from not only

all over the country, but the world.

So I think the preview day is a lot of fun, you know, for the

locals in that it's, you know, you're a boops guy.

I said this to a friend the other day.

It's kind of like almost like a little bit of a conference

tournament where you got to prove yourself to see if you can

move on to the national stage, you know.

So I think we're going to see that on Saturday.

And that doesn't mean every, everybody's a Pegasus horse or

Pegasus Turf or Philly Ameriturf for that matter.

But, you know, they get a chance on Saturday to to prove it.

As we go through these races, I think it's pretty obvious that

there are horses that are, you know, hey, they're, they're,

they're prepping for the Pegasus.

But there are also horses that are, you know, they're, they're

they're amped to win on Saturday because maybe those races in

four weeks are a little much for them.

So I think everybody kind of meets in the middle and it's

going to be fun. Yeah, Brian with us from

Gulfstream Park, at Gulfstream Park, the Socials, if you want

to go find them down there. Big race day tomorrow at

Gulfstream. Race 8 is the Janus Foxtrot.

Anna. The 12 will run at Turfway Park

this weekend. So eleven horses entered for

this one. Brian starts that late.

Pick four also starts the $3 tropical pick 3 and that's a

race. I see your, your colleague

Samantha Perry put out a bet for that pretty often, but 50% take

out that that raised, you know, minimum as well.

You got to see some good payouts and I think this will be a

sequence that pays really well. Yeah, Louis, I'll tell you what,

that's the best bet we have because if you just kind of

chart it and follow it, you're going to see payouts that are

just countless times over the parlay.

So we'd probably get $100,000 pool on Saturday, maybe a little

more. The big ones are going to be

close to six figures, and I highly recommend everybody

looking at that. And on Saturday, what a doozy,

because there's three turf stakes in it.

Good luck in the Janice. I wish I had something clever.

I spent about 45 minutes trying to make this morning line

because I'd love to jump off the opening leg here and give you

something clever, but I I just kind of feel like at the end of

the day, RZAC is too much for these.

There's some solid horses in here.

The locals are pretty solid as well.

But we're we're talking about a, you know, graded stakes caliber

horse who has threatened in the diaper and made a run in the

Breeders cup turf Sprint and, and I don't think anybody in

here is doing that. He's going to be a short number.

He's very likely going to be lower than this 2 to one morning

line. I just couldn't get there

because they don't want to blow out too many other horses.

But I'm going to start this late, pick four and the TT pick

three with a, with a single. You know, you can there's

there's other horses and we can talk about some of them.

But I think at the end of the day, you run this race 10 times.

He's he's supposed to win at six or seven of them.

OK wow, how about a horse like XY speed comes in eight to one

on your line in the two hole there.

Hamario gets the ride, you know, just is a a Gulfstream

specialist really fast out of the gate, 7 to 14 lifetime on

the track, an insane 12 of 23 lifetime at the distance.

This 5 furlong thing, very short, very quick.

You know, we're used to more 5 and a halfs and sixes up here in

Kentucky. Is that the kind of horse that

you might be using, say in your case underneath?

Or is this one you know, if someone wanted to key in on it,

it would be a reasonable play. Yeah, well, you're going to get

fair value on anybody else. That's that's a good thing here.

And XY speed is one of those next level next, you know,

second run kind of horses. He's probably a bee in here.

And as you mentioned, he loves it here.

I think the cool thing about him is he used to be a stone one run

closer. And as you can see in his past

performances, he's he's gotten a lot more tactical speed of late.

Michio will suit him perfectly. He's going to have to hustle

from down there. You don't want to get shuffled

back when an 11 horse field being down on the inside.

I I think he's definitely, you know, if the favorite comes up a

little empty, he's one of the ones.

Coppola certainly likes it here. He won two stakes on the turf

last winter. Brad Cox is now now taking over.

Yes, I am free and he's got wild speed, but he has not seen it

out in quite some time. So even with Brad, he hasn't had

him that long. So I I don't know if he could

then maybe they'll bet him a little bit.

I tried to make them lower, I couldn't do it.

Axtell is going to get bad for for Sappy and Zayas, but boy, he

has no speed at all. And you watch turf racing around

here, You you mentioned there's really 5 furlongs.

Boy oh boy, you good luck trying to get up with that running

style. Yeah, yeah, yes, I am free the

the first time ever the old Brad Cox junior Elvorado combination.

How about that? Yeah, isn't that crazy?

I've never seen it before and that and it occurred to me, I'm

like, how have I never seen that before?

With all the, you know, the New York runners that Cox has and

all that, it was just surprising to see maybe, maybe they teamed

up. It was just little distant past.

Listen, I, I, I, I think it's a valid point though, because I

don't, I don't get into musical jockeys.

And I know that, you know, there's so much stuff going on,

but, and listen, Junior is world class, not a dig on him at all.

And he's the best guy you'll ever meet.

But like you said, Louis, Brad's never ridden him before.

And you know, Brad is a guy that, you know, I can get

anybody basically. So I just said I thought it was

odd. I don't know if that means

they're just going to take a spin and see what they have

under the hood or what. And listen, like I said, Junior

is so, so good. But I just, I, I thought it was

a little odd for sure. You have Tumba Rumba as the

eight to five favorite in the Harlan's Holiday.

It'll be Race 9. It's a grade $365,000 in the

Kitty, a mile on the 16th on the main track at Gulfstream Park.

I I hate to put it this way, but is he the favorite by default in

this race? That's that's not a terrible way

to put it that that's fair. He's I think he's a horse of

beat, though. But the other thing is, and you

know, I know, obviously I I pay more attention than anybody

because I do the morning line. But then the money that Brian

Lynch has attracted since since we've opened the Championship me

is, is incomprehensible. So I've got to factor that in.

I usually I circle guys like Saffy, I circle guys like Irad.

Now I'm finding myself circling Brian Lynch because there was so

much bizarre betting activity on him last week and it was

typically right in most spots. So I think Tumblrum is a horse

to beat. Anyway, here's the interesting

thing about the Harlan's eye. This goes back to the point I

made when I first got on about OK, we want to win on Saturday

or do we want and I get ready for the Pegasus And I think we

can all agree Tuscan skies, the horse that's looking for the

Pegasus short stretch finish line on Saturday.

I don't think that's going to play to him very well.

Tumba Rumba comes in off of, you know, a really game and hard

fought try in the Breeders Cup Dirt mile.

Huge effort by him. So does he regress a little bit?

Is he fully cranked? Brian?

Brian has mentioned he'd like to try the Pegasus with his source.

So I think this could be a race where maybe you're allowed to to

get a little funky. I'm going to try Kate Trafalgar

at just a a speed pop. I I I think slash hope Irad's

going to put him on the lead. He's coming out of Sprint races.

I think that's his path to victory here.

He might be the 6th or 7th best horse in this race really.

But the flow and the circumference of the trip at the

short stretch and the fact that I, you know damn well he wants

to win on Saturday, you know, they're not thinking Pegasus, at

least not right now. So I'm going to take a little

shot at him. It's rare you get Saffy and I

right out of price and you're you're supposed to get that 6:00

to 1:00 on Saturday. Man, OK, I like a different

Saffy in here. I love digital OPS.

For some reason. I think Dylan Davis is going to

give this horse a really fair shake.

I talked with David Levitch on our podcast yesterday and he

said, man, I don't know that move from Brown to Joseph.

I don't know that the horse is going to improve.

My thought was I don't know that he needs to improve to be

effective in this company. Do you give Digital OPS much

shot 10 to? One, well, you know, yeah, he's,

he's, he could trip out in here because, you know, I'm trying to

go really fast with Kate Trafalgar because Tumba rumba is

not really letting anybody get too far away.

And Tuscan Sky's got speed too. So, you know, there's a there's

a, there's a race on paper where you close your eyes and imagine

it and digital OPS could trip out pretty nicely.

I agree with what he said about, you know, maybe you're not going

to improve off Chad, but maybe you don't have to.

Maybe he's the horse that that could kind of freak.

He's never been down here before.

Just maybe a change of scenery a little bit.

He looked pretty good winning in New York last time, kind of

finally got back on the beam a little bit.

So hey, you know, I'm thinking outside the box and I'm not

going to fight anybody else that's doing it as well.

The Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale is Race 10 is the late daily Double

Here mile and an eighth on the turf course there at Gulfstream

Park. We talk about the tight turns of

Piblico, the turns, all the turf course at Gulfstream Park quite

tight as well. I landed on major dude here.

The four horse I read and Todd in this case, I thought looked

really good at Keeneland last out.

No one was getting close to that four-star day before that.

So we're getting back to more of, I think this horse is sort

of level. I know this is a grade 2, but

really feels kind of like a grade three kind of feel to me.

I'll land on major dude here, the four horse, I'll take the

five to one. I think I'll probably get about

four to one here at the end of the day.

But you know, you've got Win for the Money five to two.

Obviously. I just praised Dylan Davis with

digital OPS. What do you see about Win for

the Money? Yeah, Louis, I think he lays

over this field. I would I will bet I'll make us

a nice win bet if he is 5 to 2 and I think he might be because

you know, there's other horses with some pretty sexy

connections that they're going to bet.

You know you've got Pletcher and I route I think major dude in

second. I think he's I think he's got to

prove it Saturday. I agree with what you said about

the Fort Lauderdale, but I think he does have to prove he can be

an older stakes caliber graded stakes caliber horse because

he's beaten up on softer. You know they're going to bet

Grand Sonata for Todd and Tyler. You got Sappy and Zayas down

inside with cash equity off graded stakes form in Kentucky.

So you know there could be a path where win for the money

does go 5:00 to 2:00. I tried to make him a little bit

lower, but I couldn't do it. Louis, I think he lays over this

field because not only is he a Grade 1 winner, but he loves it

here. He didn't beat anything in the

Mr. Steele. I get it.

Go back and watch the race. He was absolutely devastating

and and you could argue that the last two times he's had had

realistic chances. He's won a Grade 1 and he

dominated here. You know, he's out of beer, just

got mile horse. We we know that the Churchill

turf races. I don't I don't count them.

That's so wonky there. And he caught a field at Ellis

over a good turf and I think he wants to get a fast, firm turf

course. He's going to get that on

Saturday. He's my single in here.

It might be a little aggressive to some people, but I I think

there's a lot of horses, Louie, like major dude that are still

trying to prove that that they can play at this level.

You know, there's a lot of eights and 10s to ones kind of

in here. I don't think we have to wonder

about that. We we win for the money.

He, he, he's the, he's the horse in here, I think.

All right, wow. All right, Strong take the

Swanee River will close the card.

Race 11. We're going a mile on the turf

course there. Grade 3, so $165,000 in the

Kitty here for this one, I thought felt pretty wide open.

I happen to be a big fan of Papillio as a horse overall,

except that that horse just doesn't win it just but 15.

I think 15 to 1 is a totally fair number if we're if we're

purely talking morning lines. I don't know what to do with

Golden Hostess in here because I do trust Graham Motion.

A lot of this horse is going to be stretching out to the mile.

Didn't have a lot of, you know, success in South Africa at that,

at that distance. But that's a kind of guy that I

really trust in this spot. Where did you land?

Yeah, well, I'm with you in there waiting, Graham.

We trust and I hope everybody listening and you and me, we're

all having a really good day when it gets the Swanee River.

But I'll tell you what, if we all need to get out, this is the

race. I got a four to one morning line

favorite. Who I don't know, Ocean Club

could be the 5th betting choice for all I know.

I I have no idea, but but you, you made the points on Grand

motion. That is exactly why I landed on

Golden Hostess. If Graham's going to try this

horse, as good a horseman, as good a horseman as we have, if

he's going to try her going along, I think he thinks she can

get it. I think she'll be closer

stretching out because she was kind of run off her feet a

little bit in the turf sprints. And here's the other thing too,

the interesting thing about the Swanee River, it's the exact

same kind of race. This might sound silly, but I'm

going to explain it. Same kind of race as the Harlans

holiday is. And what I mean by that is I

pick Cape Trafalgar. I don't really think Cape

Trafalgar at the end of the day is a true two turn horse.

But if you're ever going to get two turns and you're not

supposed to, it's on the dirt at a mile and a 16th at Gulfstream

or it's going 7 1/2 or a mile on the turf at Gulfstream.

Because it can carry horses. That might be at the end of the

day, not as good at two turns, but I think it can carry horses,

especially if they can get involved early.

And that that's kind of what I see with with Golden Hostess.

I think she'll be closer and she she's supposed to be a price

Louie and I, I think you just have to look for a number in

here, don't you? You're talking Filio.

I mean you have to look for a price in the spot.

Yeah, I agree. I think it's very much a spread

spot. By the way, I will add the first

finish line at Keeneland to your your two turners where yeah, I

think that's actually a good spot too.

Yes. But yes, anyways it is the.

Same. Race it is the same race.

I agree. And so no, but I, I was looking

around and, and I'm with you Ocean Club, like, oh, oh, sure,

you could be the favorite. Sure, like, you know, you won a

grade 3 before, sure, that kind of thing.

But no, like you point out, the the mile course at Aqueduct is

nothing like the mile course at Gulfstream Park.

I mean, they're very, very, very, they are very different.

But the scary thing for the competition is here is that

she's supposed to like this course way better and she's

drawn inside. Honestly, Louis, it's a little

bit of a post position race too. If it Bless My Stars had a post,

I'd probably make her favorite. If Brett the way had a post, I'd

probably make her favor. But you know, everybody watch a

mild turf race at Gulfstream or look at the circumference on

your racing form when you're in the 11 and 12 post.

I mean, you better. I rather be in the Hall of Fame

one day. He might be in the Hall of Fame

Saturday night if he wins him out.

There it is. It is so difficult Louis the

quick run to the turn in the ground loss that you're probably

going to have to deal with all. Right.

Well, he's Brian Nadeau. He'll be on the on the track

feed down there at Gulfstream Park the next couple days.

Go follow him, Brian, Jane Nadeau, couple of underscores in

there on Twitter. Of course, Capital OTB as well.

Go find them at Capital OTB on all the socials and all of the

things. Brian, appreciate you, man.

Merry Christmas and we'll talk to you in January.

All right. Yeah, Louie, I'm glad we caught

off. I appreciate that as well.

And same to you and everybody back there.

Thanks. Right, there you go, Brian

Nadeau.