James Welsh | Breeder’s Cup Turf Preview

I welcome in a special Sunday before the Breeders Cup edition

of the Horse Racing Happy Hour. His name is James Welsh joins us

every year from the fair city of Glasgow.

They're in Scotland, of course. Ahead of this week, I'm Louis

Rabo. We're heading to San Diego this

weekend. So of course we got to pick

James's brain ahead of these races.

If you don't know James, James been on the show many, I think

this is either your 4th or 5th Breeders' Cup hanging out with

us as one of the two. I'd have to go back and look at

it, but jwracing.com go check them out.

James is the the rare British Isles resident that enjoys the

American dirt racing as well. So we'll get after all of it

with him today. But we always lean on your

expertise, James in these these turf shippers coming in from

Europe. Good after I guess good evening

where you are. Good evening, James.

How are you? Yes, good evening.

Great to be here again. Yeah, it's awesome to have you

and I we scheduled for today because James is doing something

tomorrow that makes me very jealous.

Tell people what you're doing. Tomorrow I'm going to the first

night of Max Richter's world tour at the Glasgow Royal

Concert Hall, so that'll be a great gig, so really excited

about that. You should be extraordinarily

excited about that. It's like you haven't checked it

yet. Go find it.

It's spectacular. Yeah.

Yeah, it's spectacular, absolutely spectacular.

Just as the the the post positions are getting drawn as

well so. Yeah, that's right.

And so that'll happen tomorrow, but we certainly want to get

into looking at least at the pre entries and all of those sorts

of things that come with this. James, let's go ahead and we'll

start with Friday. Just go chronologically here as

we run through. We'll start with Juvenile Day.

That does start with Race 6 is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

Sprint. That's five furlongs on the turf

there in Del Mar 1,000,000 bucks on the line here.

I know who I think of the American runners is going to

have a shot here, but who did? James Welsh.

Who are a couple of horses you want to highlight here?

OK, well, I've got actually I've got one of my strongest fans

fancies of the meeting in this race.

And it might surprise you, it's actually not an American and

it's not a European. So so I think the the the

European Raiders, particularly the British Raiders studies is

quite well fancied. As we know, speed kills at Del

Mar. So you want to be up up with a

pace early on and the steers just certainly get good early

speed. The American horse Governor Sam,

I like that as well. That'll show good early speed.

So I can see those two going pretty quick and brought there

early. The horses were the best forum

and the race from Europe is probably, I would say whistle

jacket, Aidan O'Brien's horse, but it's been running over six

and seven. The pre morning is probably one

of the strongest races in Europe for a juvenile and it ran well

on that. So I see that being actually a

long term possibly the best horse, but for A5 for long

Sprint race. I don't think the the two are

Brian horses Whistle jacket or a few people quite fancy.

It was in March as well that you know, both both I think will be

running well and might be better three-year olds.

So I would look elsewhere. The one that interests me at a

big, big price from England is a horse called Shareholder.

It won Royal Ascot earlier this year, then had a wee break and

ran in France and ran poorly, but it's been working well since

and I hear it's quite strongly fancied, so that might be one

for the exotics to play under play underneath.

But as I said, the one I really, really like here is this

Japanese horse Roko Seg. It's 12 from 2 in Japan.

It's broke the track record. It ran.

I've got figures here. It ran a 3.

It's ran its first 3 furlongs in 32.6 seconds, which is, you

know, Scotch in the tough and I really, really fancy this one

strongly at the moment. It's 11 to 2 five to one in the

UK and I think in the American one in line, it's quite wide

open. So I think that would get us off

to a flyer for me. So I'm quite into that for you

from America. As I said, Governor Sam could

lead. The other one I thought for

America might have been Menti a Pletcher's horse, but I'm not

too sure if it's running in that fence cross entered.

So, but that's that's my take in the first one.

Yeah, this. Is 1 James, where we've seen in

recent years a shift where last year I think the top three

finishers were EUR. Before that this was dominated

by Americans. And I think largely, James, it

was, you know, figuring outgoing from a straight line to a turn,

you know, one turn kind of race for a lot.

Of these two year olds. Just wasn't part of their

experience. It did not seem to matter last

year. Yeah, so so I think if we went

now move when Europe, Britain's went one to the last three

years, so and that was always the thing against it was 2 year

old, 2 year olds growing a bend. Most of the European racing is

on straight tracks. So the sharp 5.

So they certainly seem to have adapted a lot better and as I

said last year, you know big Eaves and that was running quite

fancy that so but I just feel this year they could be up

against something special. It is a bit different going for

the Japanese form, but I'm going in based on on the times and the

times are absolutely frightening.

So before the the gate, you know, the post positions

actually come out again, that was mysterious.

It was the first one you mentioned.

And then I want to make sure everyone knows these Akoro Sieg

is trained by Masatoshi Haramaru Rid by Christophe Lemaire, by

the way. So this is the one that many

people who watch international racing of any kind would know.

And then of course, a shareholder underneath in your

exotics, maybe your exact or trifecta place as well in the

American. I stop her years.

Exactly. And I think you'll find that

most of these races I'll be looking for are a bomb to come

in, as you know, for me. Yeah, no question.

So for me, we, as I said, the reason I love it so much, I've

got 3 opportunities of betting. I can take the fixed price with

the the British bookmakers. We've also got the exchanges.

So you can play into the exchanges, but we can also play

into the American pools. And you know, as I said, I

always like to do the, you know, the exotics in America and

you've got to look for a bomb. And my bomb for that race would

be shareholder. There you go.

All right, well, James Welsh joins us here on the horse

racing happy hour. My camera is being a jerk again,

so we're gonna have to tell it to work again.

There we go. All right, There we go.

There's my there's my face. To the chagrin of everyone

watching. Let's move on to Race 8, then.

This is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Philly Turf here,

1,000,000 bucks and the Kitty here.

We're going a mile, going the two turns, James there.

And look, I think, frankly, a couple of American options here.

But as far as European shippers, who stood out to you?

The juvenile fillies O'Brien's sending over late Victoria.

If there's going to be a lock for this whole meeting, it will

be late Victoria. This horse is way superior to

most horses he's ever sent across for this race.

This is a genuine Group One horse.

He's favorite for next year's 1000 Guineas.

I'm actually surprised he's actually sending it.

It's 1 / 6 furlongs last time out previously 7 furlongs.

It's going to go a mile. It's Bi Frankel, so it can

possibly even improve. So that'll be a real strong and

in the UK now we're probably looking about even money

favorite. I can see that one going going

off odds on and I don't really see too much else to beat it.

Certainly not from the the the the British perspective.

I had to be quite look at American form.

I'm not massively, you know, the the the American 2 year old

Californian grass horses. So an old thought Princess is

quite well fancied, but I'm not but one is get a wee bit of

information out of people talking about quite a lot is

Destino Deoro. I know it's been a wee bit

unlucky. It won well first time and then

it's been unlucky last time out, fast, fast finishing.

But I really do. I think you don't want to.

I don't think you over need to overthink this.

I think of late Victoria, it's a half decent draw and travels

over. Nothing goes wrong with it.

You know, I think that's the probably the Europe, probably

British Irish banquet of the weekend.

Yeah, I just think this Destino Doro needs to needs to close

like so many of the Europeans are going to do.

And if she's going to be as quick as them, I'm just not

sure. The only positive she really has

is Brad Cox's barn is about as hot as it's ever been, frankly.

So if if someone's going to come in in great form, it might be

her. What do you think of a horse

like Kilwin? Kilwin coming in off of that

Kentucky Downsurf? I've never asked you if you bet

Kentucky Downs over here in the United States, but.

That's kind of. A fun one as far.

As major opportunities I've got I, I, I don't know if you know

this stat I watched Kentucky downs.

It's quite entertaining, not a conventional track and it's good

to see I know the prize money is absolutely fantastic and I'm

surprised more Europeans actually don't go over to it.

Maybe just the ones that are just below the top grade because

you're getting two $3,000,000 raises, you know for horses that

probably aren't group class horses here so maybe trainers

are missing their tricks. If anybody's listening out there

and want to buy a horse and we'll go to Kentucky Downs next

year. I'm I'm up for that, but for a

prep for the Breeders Cup. The start is and I'm not

massively in stats are basing forms in time, but the start for

Kentucky, the last I think it's over 100.

A 101 runners have ran at Kentucky Downs and not one at

the Breeders Cup. 101 horses have ran and not one is one at a

Breeders' Cup. Mean now we'll come to the race

later on. It's probably a big concern,

Nico Bar, but certainly it's not formed that the travels well or

or goes elsewhere. So Kentucky Downs form tend to

put a bit of a line through it, Yeah.

OK, all right. The 10th race on Friday will be

the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. This is for open company 2 year

olds, $1,000,000 in the Kitty here.

We're going a mile again on the turf.

A couple of interesting Americans in here in New Century

and in Zulu Kingdom as well. But I'm sure you have another

monster for us coming from someone's bar, maybe Charlie

Appleby here. Even El Kujra has already won,

or excuse me, already run the one mile turn there at at

Woodbine for example. Yeah, Woodbine form.

I'm not saying it's a Kentucky Downs thing, but I'm not overly

impressed ever. We Woodbine form.

It doesn't have a great record coming into the Breeders Cup, I

think. It's like like modern games and

then a bunch of other horses, right?

Like modern games wasn't really bucked that trend.

Yeah, right. Yeah, you if a horse is so

outstanding, yes, once I can remember that one in, you know,

as easy as it could do it up at Woodbine.

So Woodbine form is certainly weaker than the, you know, the

main the European tracks and certainly the, you know, the

likes of, you know, Saratoga and Keeneland etcetera.

So certainly would buy you best step down for me.

I think this is wide open to be honest with you.

I don't necessarily I won't be going single in any British or

Irish horse here. They're all decent form.

You century Henry Batisse, you know, you know the the I cannot

I cannot really make a case, a strong case for any of them.

So as you can see with the bet, I think it's about 5:00 to 1:00

the field here, it's totally wide open.

I don't have a strong fancy at all.

The one it probably once again I do we look at the the the

Japanese horse again and I just thought this seemed to be a bit

workmanlike with for that one time wasn't fantastic.

So, you know, although it's one, it's one going left-handed and

right-handed. So it might not be tooth.

Yeah, that's a Santo San Sanato carnival.

Yeah. Yeah, it's a total carnival.

Yeah, coming. Out of the.

Out of the Satomi barn, That's right, yeah.

Yeah. So, so that was the one.

It was quite a big price and certainly putting that in the

exotics would definitely be the one I would sort of go.

But this is probably one of the latest races for me.

As I said, I think the European horses are all a much, much

muchness and Zulu Kingdom, you know, I, I was wildly impressed

with it. So the one that was I said the

one menti probably could be the one Pletcher's one, but we're

not too sure what race it's going to run in.

So that would probably be the one I would probably go for from

an American point of view, probably relying on yourself

here for a wee bit of information.

In race 9, we'll have the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

I wanted to ask you about this. I know you follow dirt racing on

this side pond, East Avenue, Chancellor Mcpatrick, Jonathan's

way. We've got a couple of horses.

Here, yes. Stateside teams coming into this

race that are all in spectacular form.

Great performances last time out that meant nothing last year.

Conspiracy has finished track in the champagne.

And So what do you think you'll end up doing this year?

Are you going to lean on recent form or are you going to assume

there's another fierceness in this but.

The thing. The thing with fierceness

instead of the form in the book. So you know it's previous when

it did when it won spectacularly.

So it did have it in there. So we certainly had it

underneath. It was in my exotics, but I

didn't bear it to to to win in here.

The horse have been most impressed with without a doubt.

It's an absolute monster. The dolphin's horse East Avenue,

it's so fantastic. You know, it looks a three-year

old against two. You know it's men against boys.

But I've seen it when the one thing I would say, but they were

negative. I would say it for it will be

probably short enough in the betting and also it won its

races with an uncontested lead. I don't think the other horses

would could go go go with it. So if he gets pressed for the

lead, that's a different thing. Chancellor Mcpatrick, I know a

lot of people fancy that Chad. You've always got to consider

any Chad run or here he targets them.

So yeah, undefeated, good times as well.

So that's going to be a win. And as I said, the couple of

other ones, Jonathan's Wade, I know that sort of looked a bit

green and it came through to one quite like that one.

And gaming as well. Baffert's horse, maybe the best

of the sort of Californians. And they're so, yeah, very, very

exciting race. The one I would probably go for

would be East Avenue, but I don't think it's going to be a

massive price. And I think in the States are

probably morning lively about 5:00 to 2:00, and it's probably

not much different over here, probably around about 3:00 to 1.

So with the quality of the rivals and quite a lot of them

will improve, you know, I, I, I like to go for, for something

bigger. It'll be interesting too.

Citizen Bowl comes out of a nice run in the the Grade One

American Pharaoh, which is their their equivalent of these sort

of breeders fraturities. James, I have this horrible

habit. So I was there at Keeneland when

East Avenue won the Breeders fraternity.

I fall in love with horses I see in person.

So I'm, I'm not for sure going to ruin my ticket with East

Avenue, but I also feel OK about that because you look damn good

at Caitlin so. Yes, but I mean literally, if,

if any horse, if people are just watching this and some people

don't watch the American race and they they see it when this

would certainly be one. I think most people this will

catch most people. I big imposing horse, you know,

it's going to be difficult to beat, but nothing's a certainty.

And as I say, there's a lot of improving 2 year olds in there.

As we said last year, fierceness, you know, running a

big price. So so yeah, certainly I think

East Avenue, most potential one most likely one hour, but I

wouldn't put you off going for, you know, the likes.

As you mentioned earlier, Citizen Build Gaming, Jonathan's

way, they could all be there. It's a fantastic, it's

absolutely a fantastic race when I'm really looking forward to

and probably the one that this will be the favorite for

Kentucky Derby next year, I would think.

No, that sounds right. Yeah.

His name is James Walsh, jwracing.com at jwracing.com on

Twitter as well if you wanted to find him there.

We bring him in every year to preview the Euro shippers coming

over to the Breeders Cup. He joins us from Glasgow,

Scotland today. I wanted to ask before we move

on. When you play multi races you

kind of cap out at a pick 3, is that right?

Yeah, that's a feel for for me to to pay him.

I like to, you know, I like, I think the a lot of people would

maybe do the pick fives and pick six and then maybe go into maybe

syndicates and bet 2, you know, $2.00 bets and well, well,

that's great and they could play a bit of fun bets or the bigger

syndicates can go into them. I think for myself, I like the

pick, the pick threes is ideal because I think it's very

difficult to get, you know, pick 5 or pick 6.

But you're actually going to have 656 races where you know,

you have strong fancies or strong opinions in, in all these

races. And it's just unfortunate the

way some of the races work that you don't, they don't get

grouped in the races are like, so I tend to find that if I've

got two or three, you know, we say 2 strong fancies, I can

then, you know, go for the pick three and the pick four and

really bet I'm quite, quite heavy.

That's where my, as I say, being able to play it in American

pools, you know, I can, you know, bet a couple, $100 and

the, you know, the pick three and the pick fours and, you

know, can quite, quite mix up a good bit.

If you if you can land on it last year, as we discussed in

this meeting, we'd have to justify and just FYI and got the

daily double as we said. And then you know, we're into

the other races before and after to try and get to pick threes

and to pick fours. And so but you know which maybe

be greedy after the the double last year.

That was fantastic. So.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So again, James's, if you're

going to play a single, James, a single on Friday will be in Race

8. It will be Lake Victoria

shipping over before you know who.

And so yes, we will be looking for that one for sure.

But let's move to Saturday. Man, what a spectacular,

spectacular set of turf races we should have.

Do people in Europe know that the Classic gets moved up

because of American football? Yeah, no, but I think we're

doing, I think, terrestrial television over here.

They like to cover it, but I think the time it mucked about

with the time. So you would say, I think it'd

be guessed about the the Super 10s or somewhere.

Is it American football, I guess, brought forward for?

Yeah, and it's not just American football, it's college football,

which is the most American freaking yeah, the most American

bleep ever. It just really is.

I mean, it's just, it's so fantastic.

We have this debate a lot, James, because horse racing

people think, Oh no, we should have the whole day and NBC

should quit everything else and blah, blah, blah.

And all I can think is. Or you could be like Britain,

where you look up and there's a horse race on and then there's a

soccer match. Like that's OK.

Like it's OK that they're side by side, you know what I mean?

It's so I think it's actually way better for horse racing to

be part of the normal sort of viewing experience of an

American on a Saturday. Yeah, the one thing I would say,

I think there's too long between the races.

I would certainly this or between a race is far too much.

You lose people's interests. So I think they should certainly

in Europe, most ways in Europe like like everyday American

races, not only 3035 minutes between our race.

Yeah, if it's the classic, give it a little bit longer and a bit

of a build up, but not not one or over an hour between between

races, you know, you lose people's interests so.

Yeah, I'm with you. Let's move to Saturday.

Race 5 is the first turf race on Saturday as part of the Grade 1

Breeders' Cup Series. The Turf Sprint 5 furlongs on

the for three-year olds and up 1,000,000 bucks in here.

And this is where the Cogburn question comes to the forefront.

James, can he come out of Kentucky Downs and be really

fast? Because I James, this horse is

stupid fast. He is, he is just stupid.

He's fantastic. He is a man in person is I, I

really would, I would struggle to think of another sprinter

that I've seen in person that at their peak was this fast.

I mean, he is uncharacteristically fast.

And So what, what do you, what do you make of his chances here?

I think he has an incredible chance.

Yeah. But I think, I think exactly as

you said, probably from what Buff seen the times, it'd be too

far too much to say it's potentially the best American

Sprint turf horse you've ever produced.

Should it be that that good? Maybe that's right.

You know, I agree, yes. Like there's a chance,

especially if he wins on Saturday.

Absolutely. You know, and to be honest with

you, I don't think he's going to have too much problem with the

European horses here. OK, European, European Sprint

division, tough. Sprint division for the last

couple of years has not been great.

It's been good. The Brad Sell has won two great

ones which is fantastic. The horses bet a couple of

times. Similar form is believing she

terrible draws a couple of times so could get a bit closer.

Brad Selby won it all. Raced up with the pace and you

know believing will come from behind.

I think there will be a hot pace in it.

I'll try and go with Coburn, but I, I literally in the UK it was

just it's a bit 2 to one in the UK, 15 to 874 you could get and

if people were playing double s, trebles, you know, parley bets,

you know, you would stick that in there.

I think in America I think that'll go off a lot shorter.

The price might hold up in Europe because they said we've

got a couple of quite well fancied ones that we have good,

good form, you know, to one, two group ones is is, you know, is

Brad Sale. That's that's strong form, but

it's it's hard for a sprinter, you know, to keep going all

year. So a lot of depending the draw.

We've not really we don't know the post positions yet and all,

all of these races, we've got to caveat what we're seeing here

before all these races. The draw is absolutely going to

be crucial. So but as I said, I think it's

probably one of the most exciting horses I've seen in a

long time. This Colburn, as you say, you've

seen it in real, real life. So you know about absolutely, so

don't don't miss it. And I love speed horses.

It's always my favorite. I mean that's going back of

safety going back into the you know, going back to Dejour was

my first, you know, anti post bet in the the Breeders cup.

And then it jumped. It jumped the jumped jumped the

flagpole shadow coming up to the lane.

I had a 33 one and all the prices down.

So, you know, so Dejour, you know, we bit bill at you and

I'll absolutely love the speed. I was at York and days you're

one at York and it flew by me and and and I think you've

probably experienced the same thing with this or so.

The only thing I would say is I say maybe if these into a speed

deal upfront, you know, there's a few late closers in here that

could come down. So you know, so I think that the

bet for me in this race probably would be, you know, cobour one,

but with a with a bomb coming into to finishing fast,

potentially. Is it motorists, Moturius when

it's came, it's won a couple of times and say Santa Anita and

Del Mar that comes comes late. So yeah, it's I think that bit

of the play for me in this race. We try and get Europeans out the

exact time. I think if there is one that

started in Europe and came over to the US, Star of Mystery is

interesting to me for what you just talked about, James,

because that horse is going to run late, right?

And so that's one of those that can pick up the pieces, be a

great play underneath. For sure, that's it.

But I think that's the way to play it.

That's the way I'm thinking about it.

We get cool 1:00 to 1:00 and then possibly, you know, as I

say, Brad Sale can't live with the pace with that and you've

got somebody starting mystery. I'm not wild about, you know, a

three-year old Philly taking on these.

I know next to these these horses, they're absolute

monsters. But certainly that that would

certainly want it would definitely be in my my tickets

underneath, Yeah. Yeah, they they thought enough.

I heard a runner straight up in the Draper.

Which he came. Over against Coburn, against

Coburn, Frankly, it's, it's pretty remarkable, yeah.

Yeah. So no, I've heard good things

about it. So but just if it be for me for

a small 3 year old Philly to beat these monsters.

But you know it will run well. Yeah, there's only one way to

find out and that is to run your horse.

So hopefully she gets in there and we we find out together.

The turf is race seven, $5,000,000 on the line here,

mile and a half on the turf there.

They're going three turns. This is for three and up.

Did you see the comments earlier this week from, from Trader Chad

Brown that he doesn't love the layout of this race, essentially

the three turn aspect of it? He thinks it's unfair.

And so he didn't enter a, you know, horses in the at least on

the Philly side. You have a strong take on that.

Are you a turns guy or are you a distance guy?

No, I mean, I don't know what Chad's doing here, but he seems

to have, you know, why is, you know, not right, Maybe he seems

to be taking a stand. He's made us comment about the

race. You know, to be honest with you,

I'm actually a little bit disappointed when I love the

race. It's normally one of the best

races in the meeting, but and I know we've got rebels romance

and it's you know, it's a road warrior.

It's won all over the world and it probably will go off

favorite, but it just isn't excitement and going for a

horse, you know, six years old, I don't think any 6 year old has

won, certainly not the tough race at the Breeders Cup.

So so I don't think there's any and it'll run its race and it

might be good enough. But you know, I'm not not wild

about inequality when last year we did Gus Rudd and won this

race last year that was a genuine, you know, top class

Group One horse. But as I don't think we've got

that this year. The one I had we talked about

last year was the back to the Japanese horse with Sharjah,

because you know, that was my bomb.

I had it where I got Sridan and the exact and he let it up.

Then I was watching it the whole way and he let it up the inside.

He let it go. Sridan, Ryan Moore get a perfect

run up the inside. But Sarja, as I said, last year

might have been the year for that.

I know it's it's been lately raised in Japan this year, not

done too much and again, it's a six year old.

So I feel that that was its that was its chance last year.

The other are Brian horses Luxembourg, you know, solid

consistent horse, but is it top class?

The one that's getting switched to this race?

A lot of talk about it's probably going to get well bet

we frankly, the Tory booth now is Emily Upjohn, which is going

to go from the move from the Phillies and beers to this race

because of the distance of a mile and 1/2 can round the tons.

Once again on its best form, yes, it could easily win, but

it's not showing its best form for a while.

And I don't like affiliate, it seems to be on the downgrade, so

I wouldn't go for that. The one that does interest me

and it's dual entrance as well, is one of Aidenbranzar horses

called Wingspan, you know, So it's certainly maturing at a

rate of knots. 3 year old filly, we have better potential against

some of these older horses, so that would be one.

As I said, it's cross centered as well and the other race, so

wingspan might be interesting. I think is 12 to one, which is

quite interesting. The other one you would

definitely have a look at and consider.

As I said, my improving 3 year old angle here would be Brian

means horse a JRB OK, but Brian means winning this race twice

before with horses I don't think as good as it was.

It was a red rocks and desert Mitch.

I think it was she's won it twice before and I certainly

this this improving 3 year old could be a bit easily bet on

both of them and it's quite strong form.

Even if it's lost, it could beat a horse.

It's considered one of the best horses in Europe, wasn't beaten

too far. So JRB could well and it does

like to be up with a pace as well.

So I think that's important. So if I can get up, save the

ground, I think that could be probably the best of the the

Europeans. I think the American horse, far

bridge, decent horse for American standards.

So, you know, it could certainly it won't need to be any

superstar to to to win this, I don't think.

Yeah, no, at Farbridge, I mean, frankly, two tries of the

distance, two wins and anytime you get 100 buyer in a mile and

a half range, it does stand out on stands out on figures for

sure. I wanted to ask what are the,

you know, what are the live odds on a horse like Farbridge and a

horse like Boy? I need to know how to say this.

JJ How did you say J? RPJRPJRP.

Yeah, OK. Yeah, absolutely.

What are the live? What are the fixed odds on those

two? Live odds just now I can just go

out to check it out in front of me.

So you could, if you're in the UK, you can lock in just now.

Live odds at the moment, 11 to four favorite rebels.

Romance, 4 to one. Emily Optron, 71 GRB, which, you

know, that's I think, Yeah. And Far Bridge 12 to one here in

the UK. So that's a big price in the UK,

especially price. Yeah, yeah.

And especially with I'm not massively what do you call each

way better. But certainly at 12 to one far

bridge UK odds and you can go and get out just now and you've

got yourself a rock solid bet now, yeah.

You know, that sounds right. I was trying to think of that is

was it bricks and mortar, the last American that won this

race? I'm trying to really zoom in on

that. I I.

Was there, I was at it. Chad Brown's red and white

colors. Yeah.

It's Santa Anita. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah, so tremendous horse, maybe

boy of American turf horses that I got to see a couple of times.

Man, he was that that his his last year running, he was, he

was pretty incredible. Oh, it's fantastic.

I remember I was there. Yeah, I was there.

It's Santa when it went Timing. Yeah.

So I think it's the last 25 years it's been 2020 ones for

the Euros, 5 for the for the for the States.

So it's sort of 4-5 to one in favor of the the EUR and it

probably on numbers that that's the case here as well.

So. Yeah, that sounds about right,

yeah. Yeah, the one that I'll give you

one, it was in quest in this race.

It's probably it's not going to run.

It's going to probably talk about the classic would have

been next. It's been absolutely dominating

the the ducked marathon races and I don't think it can go to

speed at the classic. But as I said, it's cross

entered here. It's still in.

We'll move tomorrow when the when the entries come out.

We're just talking about the pre entries, but it's pre entered in

here and it's a massive price and it's just one of these ones

that you know, if it ran, I can see that get out in front and

you know, probably been hard to catch.

But obviously I think they're going to go for the classic with

that. Yeah, I think he'll end up in

the classic and he, I got to tell you, James, he's just fun

to watch 'cause he shows up every darn.

Yeah, he just does. An honest effort every time he's

goes to guts. Yeah, that's as good as he gets.

All right, let's move on. Race 9, then will be the

Breeders Cup. Philly and Mayor Turf.

Going slightly shorter here. A mile and three furlongs on the

turf. Phillies and Mayor's 3 and up

here. 2,000,000 bucks in this Wayne Cinderella's dream.

Probably the best on the American side of things here,

James. But who's coming over that?

You like We got a South African bread in this race.

Let's go. Yeah.

So this one here. So yeah, the one you mentioned

there, is that the one that's won, the one that won the soft

race in America? Yeah, Cinderella, she won at the

yeah, she won the Saratoga X Oaks Invitational and then she

that was backing up the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational.

So those are both 3 year old races.

But yeah, she she got it done, man.

Yeah. How strong a form do you think

that is? That's a great question.

I don't think Charlie ships her for no reason, but it is, I

think, largely driven by purses and by the fact that he knew

that he gets in a bee horse to win.

That race, yes, I, I agree with you, Yeah, I think so, you know,

because if that was running in any race in Europe, but

certainly it's you know, it's got a good one record, but it's

certainly I would say it's a step below a Group One horse.

But when a horse keeps running, you never know it's ceiling.

So that's right. It's certainly, you know,

definitely, it's definitely got a chance, put it that way.

But I wouldn't be going mad on it.

As I said, the one I quite liked in here, if it does go in this

race, rather than the other one, would be Wingspan.

I think that's the improving one for Aidan O'Brien.

But I definitely think, you know, you've got a chance here.

The other horses from Europe, you know, the other one that was

running. Yeah, so, so Prano, a lot of

people quite, quite fancy that. I don't think that will get the,

the, the distance, you know, it's more I think the distance

will be too far for that. So that's been quite, quite

heavily tipped and fancy tier. Applebee's running out one

beautiful love as well. Once again, a bit of a chance.

A lot of people have talked about a Brian's horse, Yang Yang

Yang Alang. Certainly it's been a talking

horse all year. It's cost people a fortune.

And I can't, you know, it's one of these horses that people go,

they go fall off off a Cliff, you know, and then the bigger

the price. Again, we've all been there.

So so I'll have his supporters and good luck to them.

Let them, let them let them follow Eddie onto that one.

So I don't think he'll be the one to go for there.

So I think the other one, Pinterest and who would you call

it Ryan Weir picks in this race? He's only have to pick up three

potentially in this race. And he's normally normally born

the right one, I think, in this race.

Is that a giveaway for you? Whoever he picks puts them at

the top of the trio for you. Yeah, probably, as I said, I'm

quite interested see the one horse out there, Brian.

I'm not as safety before and these means I'm not a massive in

the Brian fine when it comes to the the the Breeders cup,

because he sends over such a large number.

You know, basically Kilmore are on the board of the Breeders

cup. So they love that photograph

where the army parading, you know, all the horses, you know,

twenty horses a couple of days before the race.

It makes a great photograph. But in all honesty, I think he

only ever targets, but when he does target, I mean he knows

what he's doing two or three horses actually at the meeting

that he trained specifically for the meeting.

And if you know what ones he's training for the meeting, yes,

that's good. But I think a lot of the ones

come in here after a tough season in Europe, probably not

targeted at the meeting. So sometimes thinking that

numbers game, but I think he's he's quite interesting and he's

changing his tactics for me, but he's sending a bit of a smaller

number. So although that you'll probably

see tomorrow is that a lot of pre entry torsces.

I think he'd over 20 odd pre entries.

I think he's only maybe sending over 11 or 12 in the plane and

the flying out early. So I think they're actually on

their way should arrive today. I think normally would send them

out on the Monday or the Tuesday.

So he's giving them that extra two or three days to

acclimatize. So you never know it may may

actually do about 1 of this year Brian so especially obviously

the focus we'll talk about set your toy.

So you never know, he might one of these old horses could one

but the other one in the race when warlike Goddess, I like the

Yeah, I was. Going to ask about her.

Yeah, so 7 seven-year old, she's holding a form.

She could one but you would think some something younger.

Must be a 7 year old you know? She's so fun though man I love

that. She's.

So, so honest every time. I mean, she really is.

And so she, yeah, by the way, I think, I don't know if people

remember fourth against the boys last year.

So it's or seventh against the boys.

Four and a. Half legs back under, under

Junior Alvarado. I mean, I thought she looked,

you know, it's a good showing for, for a mayor in that race.

And so it should be interesting to see if she's got some of that

form left. I'll tell you, I've been looking

at the weather reports. I, I, it's gonna be foggy and

not getting into the 70°F over here, James, so I don't think

any of those Angel Bride shippers are going to hate the

weather. Well, that's good to know.

Yeah, it got hard to say in the heat of last year.

It really did. Yeah.

So, yeah, no, the we know the ground will be will be plenty

fast enough. So, so that's another thing as

well, because quite a lot of these horses have been, you

know, this we've got to watch. So there's one of this horse in

the race. I think it's content, you know,

that that horse's last two runs were in soft ground, his best

forms in fast ground. So you will, some horses, some

European horses will bounce back to form here.

So you need to look back at the form.

So horses don't have had a bad run on soft ground.

You can almost put a line through that.

As long as their best form is in fun ground during the summer,

there's a fair chance to bounce back to form.

So if a horse is disappointed at longshore or an Ascot and soft

heavy ground, you know, like some like content, it could get

back on fast ground, you've definitely got to consider them

here. There you go, James Walsh with

us, call it in from Glasgow. We're hanging out with him.

Couple more minutes here, one more turf race.

We'll get your thoughts on some of the bigger dirt races and

some disappointment of course, with idiomatic retiring

unfortunately, but the Breeders Cup Mile will close the card on

on Saturday. And I, I love this race every

single year. We're going a mile on the turf

here. I should say it starts late.

Double mile on the turf here. This is 2,000,000 bucks, 3 and

up. Open company here, James.

And this is one where I wanted to ask you because we've got a

miler over here and he is, I would say not on the level of

other milers that we've had necessarily.

For example, gosh, I'm trying to oh boy, why am I Casa Creed,

that sort of stuff that we've had over here in recent years.

But boy, all he does is run and win.

He gets the lead. So it's a little different of a

style, James, where he breaks fast.

If he's willing to go to the lead, they'll set the fractions

themselves. Before we get into these really,

really good shepherds coming from Europe, do you give Carl

Speckler a shot here? I, I can, I understand what

you're saying. He's got good form, He's an

excellent horse, but the thing The thing is you have got this

as you've come up against genuine Group One, top, top

horses here. This is the most exciting race

of the meeting for me and probably the best quality from a

European point of view. Notable speech.

Brilliant one out of the 2000 Guineas.

Also won the Sussex Stakes, but it's some below is a couple of

bad races, one in soft ground which we can ignore one it what

as I said, I think once it didn't travel well and so it'll

be quite interesting to see how it travels over.

Hopefully if it travels over it trains well on the track.

Notable Speech is a superb horse on its day and if anyhow, I

think if Evan goes in his favour because it's a decent draw, as

you say, callous Barker will set the pace and I think this horse

could potentially devote it and I would say potentially could

put up the best performance of the meeting and get the highest

rating of the whole meeting. It's that good if it runs to its

best form. If it doesn't, then there's two

Phillies in there and I love a Philly, the Philly and improving

Philly in the autumn is yeah, is is gold.

Have you seen the the the long shot one of the French horse?

There's only one French horse. Come over to the meeting

Ratatouille. Although it was over 7 furlongs,

the weight quickened up very, very impressive.

So you've got to include that. So in improving fill in the

autumn. The other one, is it the Brian

horse, not the Doneker Brian, is it Portofentura?

Done nothing wrong. But to me I feel it's just bit

weaker fields. It's a solid, solid horse and

it'll run its race, but I just feel Ramatou is just improving

past it in a moment. But if there's, as I said, if a

horse is going to pop a spectacular performance, it will

be notebook speech and I wouldn't be taking that one in

any way at all. So Carol Sparkler, yeah, I can

see it running well, but I just think it's, you know, that these

are just somebody's horse are just too good.

I will say this, if you want the horse to fill out your exotics,

that's an on the American side of things.

Yes, actually more than looks, I think more than looks is the

horse that was charging at the end last I was there at Keelan

and I'm doing the thing. I'm doing the thing, James.

I know it was a horse I saw in person, but that horse was

flying at the end. If that horse breaks even a

little bit better, that horse will be part of the top three.

I think so, yeah. That's that.

That's your, you, you totally agreement here.

So that'll be I would actually have that over Carl Sparkler and

and my exotics. That'll be my that'll be my

play. Yeah.

So the €3 with that to come in as a bomb in 3rd place

hopefully. Yeah, right.

No, that's exactly right. Yeah.

James Walsh with us. All right, we got to do it now,

buddy. Let's get your picks.

I'll go ahead. We'll start with the

disappointment I was. I got.

I got it. It's been a minute, James, that

I've been looking forward to a match up like Idiomatic and

torpedo Anna. And of course we get the bad

news about Idiomatic who, by the way, owes us nothing.

She ran like 20 times the last three years she owes us or 25

times the last time she owes us nothing.

So it's, it's just disappointing And, and I don't think anyone's

lying or whatever else. I, I, you know, do what's best

by the horse. Don't, don't ship her if you're

not ready. But we get torpedo Anna.

We get the short stretch, very short stretch at Del Mar.

You got to be near the front or on the on the front of the pace.

Do you see anybody else in that field really pushing her?

Yes. Let's go.

Yeah. Most likely winner, definitely

it's best race. I mean, I, I think, you know,

the some of the Phillies races have been pretty weak.

You know, that's how a horse has been able to dominate, but it's

running the travellers was absolutely sensational, you

know, and that's why it would be actually even favoured, although

idiomatic is the best overall form.

You know, for Peter and I was going to go favorite in the

race. Now it's going to be heavily,

heavily odds on, but one you've got to consider and I said I'm

only going on watching the races from Japan.

The Japan horse awesome result is 7 out of seven.

It's by justify. It's one left-handed

right-handed, there was bits and obviously with either I'm attic

in the would you call it for Peter Anna, but up against the

price was massive. Now it's probably a beset the

third favorite. So you're not getting that

massive price you were getting certainly if you're playing the

I think that's the probably the I would go with the you know the

you know the go with the exact, but you never know if awesome

result can can beat for people for Peter Anna, you'll get an

ace. Yeah.

So I'd box exact to those two. OK, got it.

All right. And then in the classic basic

question for you to start. Yes.

Why is City of Troy in this race and not in a turf race?

And is this a good idea and can he win this race and what are we

doing here? I'm just trying to understand

all the motivation. Yes, go ahead.

Right. This basically I think we

touched the point set of Troy last year when I, when I, I

actually said before on this call last year, if we won the

Derby and then come to this race.

And the reason for that is Kilmore need a new stallion, OK,

and they've bought Justify and they need to get it won.

So it's won it's race, it's won the Epsom Derby here, it's done

its job and now they need to get it to win the the Classic, to

get a new stalling. Now they talk it up now either

Brian, fantastic trainer, but you can't keep listening to him

say this is the best horse we've ever had, the best horse we've

ever had. You see that so many times if

you look at possibly the time form ratings set your Troy Watts

at the 9th or 10th best host of had on meetings.

It's bet a poor 3 year old bunch.

It won its race York last time on the on the Leap which was

quite good. You know Muir Rd. a good race.

It was a speed faving track that meeting at York so Ryan Weir got

it to the front. If you see it coming at the end

they actually started to drift slightly right as well, which is

probably not a great sign. Then bizarrely they they took it

to a track called Sutherland in England and on A to Peter track,

a synthetic track with no relation to duck raising.

Synthetics transfer to tough not duck and people were were white

by this beating 3-4 stable mates.

To me it was poor because you seem it it didn't break well.

Sort of. The last thing you need in

committed this classic is not to break well and get duck kicked

in your face for never been on duck before.

Yes, it's by justify and it possibly, you know, could handle

it, but it's downside. It's all tough, you know, but

the hate train's gone. It's 6064 favorite in the UK

here, 64 as we speak, 3:00 to 2:00.

That's going to be the worst bet probably of all time, honestly.

That is, that is, you know, you know, madness.

Yeah, if it was 6 or 71, you can make a case out and say well, if

it gets I think. You think he can win the race,

but three to two is ridiculous. Right.

Yeah, it's ridiculous. So if if it gets, as I said, if

it gets a draw tomorrow of say middle draw 5678 and he can get

out quick. Now, Arthur's ride's going to go

to the front. So I think Arthur, it's going to

be a hot pace, but Arthur's ride's probably going to go.

So you're not going to lead. But if he can get it prominent

and get out and get running, get a good position, yeah, it's got,

it's got ability, it's got a nice long straight and you know,

it certainly could win and it's by justify.

So it, you know, it's a good one.

And I loved the horse last year as a 2 year old, No 2 year olds

impressed me more the way it was finishing its races and you was

thinking through the line, you know, you could tell it was

going to be a Derby, one of absolutely no problems at all

the way it was finishing. So it was probably 1 of Bath.

As I said this year it bombed out in the Guineas.

It won an awful Derby and the last race, yes, the the form

book looks good. The 4th come out and won the pre

lap to triumph, which is, you know, the strongest form you can

probably get. Well, as I said, I've not I've

not, you know, been too impressed with it this year.

But Ian O'Brien, they've trained it for the race.

They know they need a new stallion and they're desperate

for for this horse to to sort of leave no one, as I said to you,

they're travelling out a little bit earlier this year as well.

So they're leaving no stone unturned, except I think that,

you know, that race, that gallop subtle.

You know, I wouldn't read too much into that.

People were waving about it, you know, not for me.

So at the prices, I think this is a great no, I shouldn't be

saying this, but let them pile on.

Let them let them go for the hate training.

You know, we can get better odds, other horses and we can

get it free. You know, I'm here to win money.

Yeah. So if it wins and does it

spectacularly, fantastic. I love horse racing.

But ultimately, you know, at the odds, I'm a I'm a layer of this

horse. Yeah.

I wrote a piece at the Sporting Tribune about the three major 3

year old contenders, obviously City of Troy, Fierceness and

forever young. I made the case that just by

pure numbers and by betting odds, James, I think forever

young, not even close. The absolute betting best

betting option of the three-year old males.

Absolutely. So fierceness, as you said last

year for for the, I think better in top, better underneath,

because it had the form in the book and it can do it is capable

of brilliance, but it's also capable, you know, throwing a

conqueror as well. And I can't I can't take that

chance against top horses. You can't do that forever young.

What's it when it when is it? Saudi Derby, the Dubai Derby,

very unlucky in the Kentucky Derby when when they bumped in

domestic dance, Sierra Leone, they were all bumping each

other. It was an absolutely incredible

effort. And then it went back, they

freshened it up. It's had a prep race, nothing

special but a nice prep race. So it's coming here fresh.

It's a road warrior. It's travelled before.

Yeah. I mean, to me that is your, that

is the most likely one or the other race, yeah, depending on

draw, you know, and the trip. But as things stand at the

moment and the at the odds, you know, you're right.

Certainly at the moment that that to me is your your bet.

At the moment, yeah. 5 to one on him and at the time when I

looked it was on bet 365 I was looking city of Troy was plus

225. I'll take, I'll take, goodness

gracious. I'll take forever young and that

forever, yes. Yeah.

So that that's. Yeah, I think he's easily the

best. Yeah, the easily the best value

in that field for sure. And plus, plus what, like you

said, his form is as good as it's going to get.

Do you have a strong take on the Dirt Mile to close?

I think this you talked about, you know, some other races being

your favorites of the weekend and the Turf Mile for sure.

This might be mine. And I love that it's the closer

on Saturday. OK.

Yeah, well, the, the, the way I looked at it was I think my, my,

my work will have been, it's been at last race and then my

work will have been done. And it is.

I found this the most head scratching race of, of the

meeting I do. It's a race I love.

But once again, the the draw and the trip is going to be

absolutely crucial. Short, short run to the bend

here. So if you're buried in the

inside and you missed the break, you've gone.

If you're out drawing 11/12/13, you've got you know, so, so

you'll be looking at something, you know, drawn probably, you

know, in the middle, you know, 45678.

But I, I, to be honest with you, it's it, it sounds, you know,

it's I've spent so much time covering all the races.

This was what we thought. Give myself a rest on it.

The one thing I would, the one I would say if you were asking me

for one and it's cross entered in the six Poland race would be

Chancellor domestic spending quite like that.

So that would be one I'd be including, but not with any

strong conference. So I'd be over to you in this

one. No, that's OK Domestic product

for sure seems to be doing his best running over one turn.

And so I do wonder if they won't just leave him in the Sprint.

I don't know if he's fast enough for the Sprint.

He likes to close, but we did see him in the jerkins close.

He closed into seven for a long time.

I just wonder about the six there, James.

And so I do think the mile makes more sense for him.

I'll tell you a horse you're going to get a huge number on

and everyone laughs at me because I love this freaking

horse. But I, I think see, I think Sees

the Gray is going to be a price horse here, James and he is very

capable of getting the lead rating on the lead, etcetera.

And I think that shorter stretch will allow him to just get the

lead and keep the lead. The two turns won't bother him

at all. We've seen it before.

I, I wonder if you're not going to get a really, really good

price on Sees the Gray. And because his sire Airgate

passed away, I think if he wins this race, we'd never see him

again. Yeah, no, totally agree.

I actually was. Do you know it's one I

considered. As I said, there's so many

considering this race. We bet they're all, they're all

top class, all good horses. So I didn't feel there's an edge

in this race. That was that was the one thing

I would say. I think the the edge will come

when the the post positions are declared in this race.

I think that's going to be so significant for this race.

TO Sandini, by the way, the Japanese would be my top

Japanese horse for this one as well.

Well, he is James Welsh at jwracing.com on Twitter.

jwracing.com is the website as well.

Go find him over there. James, man, we gotta get you

back over here, I think. Really.

Yeah. Have you been to a Kentucky

Derby yet? What are we doing?

Here I haven't been, no, I haven't been here to Kentuck.

I looked at it and it's just it's it's getting flights and

it's not not easiest place to get to.

So if you're on the East Coast, you know, a flight from Glasgow

and Edinburgh to New York, absolutely no problem at all.

Couple of couple of times a day. So I think the next time with

the talking, the refurbished Belmont getting the Breeders Cup

in 2026. So we're at Delmar next year.

So as I say, they've been to Delmar, I've been to, would you

know that Santa Anita, you know, sort of stayed in all those

places. So I've done that and as as I

said, I loved it. So maybe the next trip I might

be, might be might plan for and definitely be their stuff.

It gets to gets to Belmont in a couple of years, but I'd love

to, I'd absolutely love to get to the the Kentucky Derby, but I

think it's be be some trip for me to get there.

Well, if you could, I, I will tell you and I'm gonna pull them

up on screen here. So producer Zach makes the trip

every year and I've driven to Lexington to pick the kid up

just to make the flights easier. So, James.

Cincinnati to Cincinnati, Yeah. Whatever, whatever you got to

do, James, you get your ass over here, we'll figure it out and

we. Will we'll figure it out.

We'll make it work for the Derby.

You could. You could crash here.

I got space. We'll figure.

It out that'd be, but are we? All right, James.

Well, he's james.walsh@jwracing.com.

I love this visit every year, and I always say I'm going to

visit with you more often. I'm going to call my own bluff

here, James. I want to see you ahead of the

Derby show this year. You ready for that?

Yeah, no, definitely. Yeah.

I love it all. Right, awesome.

We've. Got a wee break after it.

We put so much into this cup, we take a wee break.

It gets so heavy around here. Well, the good thing for us here

is we essentially the next weekend there isn't a lot, but

then you'll have to watch this. There's a series called the the

claiming Crown, which is all of the best lower level horses in

the United States all come to Churchill Downs for a racing day

2 Saturdays after Breeders' Cup. James, best betting card you'll

ever see. It's unbelievable fantastic,

fantastic card. So hopefully we'll see you

sometime before the Kentucky Derby there in 2025.

James, so much. Thanks so much for joining us.

And let's make it a little more often than once a year.

Yeah, no, that's great and good luck and enjoy the enjoy the

enjoy the weekend ahead. Let's let's crush it.

You know. Well, let's make some money.

There you go. Enjoy that concert tomorrow.

I'm jealous. All right, James.

Great. See you Money.

All right. Thank you all.

Right James Welsh. How about that?

Well, Scotland on a Sunday. Why not a little Austin, TX on a

Sunday? That is way too fast.

That's disgusting. No one needs.

I could smell you through that photo, Zach.

That's terrible. We are presented by

manscapemanscape.com. Our promo code is horse racing.

Get in with that and make sure you get get that free shipping

to your house, 20% off any order.

You can have a beautiful beard like Zach, How about that?

Or you can clean up your hair, whatever's left of it on the top

of your head like mine. So there you go.

Find us at Horse happy Hour on Twitter.

You can find our YouTube page as well.

If you haven't subscribed to that, we would appreciate

awesome subscriptions that way. We will be doing our annual

Breeders' Cup booklet for Friday and for Saturday, so be watching

for that as well. We'll send out a bunch of

notifications about that. Zach, what do you think?

10 bucks for the weekend, Do something like that.

Have some fun. 10 bucks, just get everybody in, 5 bucks

Friday, 5 bucks on Saturday. I will let you buy individual

days too if you want to do that. I'm Louie Rebeau, he is

producer. Zach, it is time to wrap this

thing up. Thanks to our guy James Welch at

jwracing.com. You can find me at Radio Louie

as well. Back at it tomorrow, 12:30

Eastern Time with our guy Matthew DeSantis from Naira

Bats. He will be joining us to talk

dirt races tomorrow and especially those New York

shippers as well. I'll be out at BA Colonial here

in Louisville on Tuesday night at 6:00, totally free to get in,

dress however you want, please wear a shirt and then we'll see

you for that cash bar that night.

Our Guy J Shepherd coming out, cigars and wager will be there

giving away and helping out with your deposits and all those

sorts of things. So get in with us on Tuesday.

His name, Zach. I'm Louis.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.