Keeneland Preview 10/19/24 | Ellis Starr

All right, welcome in. It is a an October 17th, 2024

edition of the Horse racing Happy Hour Lawyer bro hanging

out with you solo tonight. We will have Ellis star along in

a few moments the the Uber capper, if you will, ought to

talk some Kaitlyn tonight. We'll make sure that we've got

you set for the races on Saturday.

We'll talk a little Breeders' Cup as we get closer to those

dates. Of course, I was thinking about

I'm actually flying to California two weeks from today,

which is wild to think about. Reminder, we will have seminars

in both Louisville and in San Diego.

So if you're in Louisville here on the 29th, hang out with us at

BA Colonial, 6:00 PM start for that one.

No charge to get in. We'll make sure you're good and

covered for that as we get ahead and set for Breeders' Cup will

be out Friday night in San Diego at Excalibur Cigar and Scotch

Bar. If you want to swing by and say

hi to us there as well. So we'll be hanging out at both

spots the week of Breeders' Cup. Make sure that you are tuned in

for both or or for either if you can.

Sunday night that week. Man, oh man.

To start the week, talk to our guy James Walsh there in

Scotland. He'll get us ready for the

shippers coming in from Europe, especially for those turf races.

Always want to get his opinions on those.

And the man follows a lot of dirt racing in the US.

I'm sure he'll have lots of opinions on that as well.

And look, we'll have our guy Matthew DeSantis back on that

Monday. I like to do episodes around

where people are in the in around the country, frankly,

around the world. So we'll talk to James Welch

from, from Scotland, get those British Isle horses a little bit

firmer as far as our handicapping is concerned.

I think I'm like lots of people, you know, I, I pay attention to

the European races, but I'm not at all sure that I'm totally

dialed in on them. That's what James is for.

But I'm on, on that Monday, we'll go to New York.

We'll talk to our guy, Matthew DeSantis.

I, I, I like to talk to people who see the horses essentially

in person ahead of their trips to the Breeders Cup.

And I think that's a great opportunity for us with Matthew

DeSantis there from Naira Bets. Wanted to make sure sorry too,

that my, that my, my microphone was in the right spot.

But look, I think there's a real chance that we saw, you know,

for sure at least some of the folks that we're going to see

for for Breeders' Cup. And I think almost certainly

we're when we talk about these kinds of the showdowns, these

matchups, whatever you want to talk about in sports, we can

also talk about them as far as horse racing is concerned.

But I think before we get to Breeders' Cup stuff, I got to

address Luan Machado. And I know that people are

interested in the conversation and the different things.

I've seen a lot of different opinions.

I've been really interested, frankly, in the conversation

around it. If you haven't seen it, Luan

Machado and I think it's pretty clear at this point what did

happen in the race yesterday at Keeneland.

Maiden claimer, end of the day. Well, Machado has the horse on

top essentially 12 to one at the line and he thinks he's won.

Why does he think he's won? Well, there's two finish lines

at Keeneland. You ever read me in the LA Times

horse racing newsletter when that was a thing?

You know that that's one of those things that I cannot stand

about horse racing is that 2 finish line thing that we have

at Keeneland and I really wish it weren't there, but hey, I get

it. And I even suggested on Rabo and

Co, if you haven't listened, tend to noon on ESPN Louisville

here in the market or anywhere, frankly, maybe we use that first

finish line for those 4 1/2 for, you know, the four furlong, 4

1/2 furlong little baby races in the spring.

And then we kind of phase it out.

And I understand that Keeneland likes to run that their mile out

of 16th races, especially at the shorter finish line.

We even asked Brad Cox a couple Fridays ago on Robbo and Co if

he used the shorter stretch of Keeneland to kind of predict

whether his horses were going to do well when they got to Del

Mar, given the similar, you know, length of the stretch

between that shorter Keeneland stretch and obviously the short

one at Del Mar. And he said yes.

So actually, frankly, for him, it's a good predictor of the

horses that are going to do well when they're there.

But Machado thinks he's won the race.

He stands up with a full, I mean, with at least a 16th to

go. And James Graham, of course,

goes flying by. There's a carryover in the Pick

6 after that. Almost certainly someone sitting

out there on an $18,000 winner in the Pick 6 doesn't get paid

on it. And all of that is consequential

for sure, because at the end of the day, the difference between

horse racing and other sports is very simple.

If sports betting went away, we'd still have the NBA, we'd

still have NFL. And for years, you know, we

filled in the gaps on the NFL by on the gambling side, at least

in places that aren't Nevada and aren't New Jersey.

These kinds of things with fantasy football and sure, that

filled in the gaps and now I think a lot of people are moving

away from fantasy to betting, you know, touchdown parlays and

that kind of stuff where they can apply those skills that they

learned in fantasy football toward football and toward

football betting. But in a horse racing, the

source of revenue largely comes from betters and the integrity

of of races. The integrity of wagering has to

be at the highest level of horse racing.

It simply isn't an option. And I've seen people that have

said what I think too. I think it's an honest mistake.

Like Luan Machado picked the wrong finish line to stand up on

his horse. Like if he rides the horse

through the other finish line, he wins.

I think it's not even a question cost the owner somewhere in the

neighborhood of 18 to $20,000 on the winning.

And so it's a serious matter. It really is.

And I don't want to underplay it at all.

That's why I think you got to give Machado a long suspension.

And I haven't seen an official word on it today.

I know he, he had his mounts at Keeneland today, but I would put

it at multiple months because this is the kind of thing Simply

put in a wagering sport, in a built a sport built on wagering

that we simply cannot have. And so I'm not interested in how

nice he is or if he's never done this before or all those sorts

of things. I, I think you have to throw the

book at him because it has to be a message to everybody in the

sport. Hey, we're not going to put up

with this. And I think it's some spots you

would see really serious suspensions.

I've seen a lot of banter, a little too much frankly, about

Hong Kong recently on Twitter and oh, there's a regular rider

there who made this kind of mistake and it was a dead heat.

So he even still won the race tech, quote UN quote, as I do

air quotes for the people listening on a podcast.

But I don't think that matters, man.

I really don't. I don't think those things

matter. I don't think those examples

matter. I think what matters is what

we're trying to establish here, not just in the United States,

but especially in Kentucky. A lot of money here now.

It's a lot at stake in the state of Kentucky at this point.

I think it's way too important, the integrity of that wage, of

the integrity of people coming to the track and thinking the

jockeys are really trying for them.

I think that really matters. And I think Luan Machado should

probably get a 60 to 90 day suspension, something like that.

I know it seems unfair. I know if he doesn't ride, he

doesn't make money. I know.

But if someone has to be the example that we never get this

again or we don't get it very often or whatever, I think

that's the better outcome there as far as Luan Machado is

concerned. But looking at the Breeders Cup,

I think it is interesting. But I wrote about this at the

Sporting Tribune. You can find us at the Sporting

tribune.com that I think the the showdown that we're all watching

about, we're watching about watching 4 in this case is that

distaff showdown. And we just talked about that

short stretch there at Keeneland and the short stretch that we'll

see at Del Mar. We've got two in the distaff

that I think are really going to like the short stretch at

idiomatic and of course in the three-year old, the third Pito

Anna. And if you made a case for

either, I think I would listen. I think I would be probably on

the same page. We watched Lorpito go to the

front when the Oaks. We've seen her come from off the

pace in other races. The traverse comes to mind.

Of course, the cotillion. She had to work between horses

to get to the lead. Idiomatic though, we know her

style. She wants the front.

That's where she's going to be. And I think those two will try

to be near the front for sure. I think idiomatic, of course,

wants the front. And I think that Pita Atlanta is

going to be comfortable being a little bit off.

I think she's going to have to push and she's going to have to

make her push. But in the case of the the

Distaff, I think you're looking at two really, really well

matched horses. I see a lot of consternation

about Next on Twitter as well. People concerned that he should

run in the Classic, that he owes it to the sport or something.

The ownership owes it to get him out of that marathon division

that he's dominating. I don't know why that's the

ownership's prerogative at all. Why would they not want to pick

off 6 digit checks when they can?

I think that's how it should go and I so I don't think we'll see

him in the classic and frankly, I wouldn't want him in the

classic if I owned him. Our guys, Steve chimes in.

If he gets suspended, doesn't that mean it would only be in

Kentucky? He could go ride anywhere else

because there's no centralized governing body or is that not

correct? It's a great question, Steve.

The answer is no. The other states, at least

within the United States, go with what the stewards decided

the other jurisdictions. So he would actually be out.

We saw this a couple years ago or maybe less than two years ago

at this point with I wrote Ortiz Junior in New York.

He was suspended for a month. What did he do?

He had to go to Puerto Rico to get mounts.

He couldn't go to Florida, couldn't go to Kentucky,

couldn't go to California, couldn't go to Louisiana, even

Texas, whatever, had to go to Puerto Rico.

And I think a guy like that, in Lana Machado's case, he'd really

be up a Creek, man, and maybe he'd go to Puerto Rico, try to

get some rides there. I don't know.

It's his. It's his business for sure.

But in his case, I do think you got to give him days.

And I got to think in my mind, really, I think it has to be

pretty steep. Hell, it stinks.

I see a lot of people coming to his defense today.

I'm not mad at that, by the way. I think it's I think it's

totally legitimate. I think if I ran a red light and

took somebody out, people would say, you know, Louie's actually

not a bad driver. He's not a bad guy.

And everyone would say can't run a red light.

And I think that's where I fall on this is, yeah, I get it.

Good guy, honest mistake. I don't think he tried to do it

at all. I've heard reports that he was

extraordinarily upset after the race.

I believe it. I do believe it.

But in a sport built on wagering, on a sport built on

that wagering dollar coming in to pay for everything else, we

got to be really careful about that.

We have Eric Campbell back on this show from time to time,

certainly on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight, and he's president

HPA. The only thing he talks about is

the owner. The better the owner, the

better. If we take care of the owner we

take care of, the better we'll have a sport forever.

He's right. That's how this works.

Obviously you need tracks to put on these competitions, but

there's money someone will jump on and pay for those things.

And so in my mind, for sure, you got to give him days.

And I think you got to be pretty serious about it, even if it's

not intentional. These things matter.

My dad tells the story of his very short, terrible high school

hockey career. He'd forgotten to take a skate

guard off. He fell on the ice.

He tripped a kid, and he got a penalty.

And that was his only action in high school.

Honest mistake, but guess what? He went to the penalty box for

it. Really happy to welcome in Ellis

Bar the Uber Capper here to the horse racing.

Capper hasn't been on in a minute, but Ellis, good to have

you back. We're talking a lot of Machado

like everyone else on the planet.

How are you today? I'm doing great.

And we're just talking about that with somebody else and

someone said they heard, I don't know if it's true, I've got to

look it up, but it should be on the Commission website that he's

got three days, I believe in $2500.

That's enough to send a message. You can probably never do it

again. And, you know, it was just

really unfortunate and sometimes, you know, when they

it happens, they hear the other horse coming and they pick it up

again and get lucky and hold on the wind.

It didn't happen in this case, but you know, I thought it'd be

three to five days. The stewards have discretion.

I think, I think I'm I might be a little chauvinistic about

Kentucky, but I think the stewards are Chief Stewart

Borden and those are the best stewards in the country.

And they really understand the betters and also that they they

put the jockey on the board to come in already view the videos.

And you just have to let everybody know you're protecting

them as best you can. And as well as sending a message

to the jock, he can't do that. You've got to look at your

program and see where every race ends so you know where you need

to write. And Keelan's unique, by the way,

in case you didn't mention it, but in No not a, Laurel and

Oaklawn for sure have two finish lines.

Other tracks, too, I don't know if they do, but Keelan puts up

that red sign. They call it a bullet.

Looks like a stop sign. And the jocks know that if the

sign's up, that's where the race ends.

He looked at the mirror at the 16th pole.

The sign wasn't up. He still thought it was over.

He didn't put the two together. Hardly ever happens, but it's

not the first time it's going to happen.

It's not the last time it's going to happen.

And of course, you know what's happened in history with

Shoemaker and the Derby and other things.

So I mean not to discount in any way, shape or form, but I think

if it if it is true this three days and 2500 three days for a

guy like that, it's going to be a few $1000 in lost earnings as

well and it'll send a message. So do you like 3 days?

Totally fine. You're good with that kind of

suspension? I 'cause I'm.

I I, I I. Could see things I lied like you

know longer than. That Yeah, no, but, but unless

seriously, if if a jockey causes another horse or jockey to be

injured, you know, 1520, thirty days.

OK, sometimes longer. It it really is.

This was a human error. And I'm not just counting

anybody that had a bet on the horse.

I had no dog in the fight. But let's let's be nice, OK?

This is a kid that is just starting.

His last two years he has been his best.

He had $4 million in earnings last year, 7 million.

That's for all his horses, not just winners, but he rides about

100 winners a year. And with the first structure in

Kentucky, 100 winners a year, let's just say an average of

$40,000 purse, you know, that's $2400.

So that's a quarter, $1,000,000 a year plus 125 bucks for every

race he rides the other 800 and something.

And he's only going to get better, you know, over the next

10 years. It's $5,000,000.

The guy's going to make probably or more in the next 10 years.

OK. It was a mistake.

And, and that best, by the way, the best tweet I saw today on

one of the threads I posted where someone just said Bill

Buckner. That was it.

I said that was it. That's all you got to say,

right? Yeah, I I think you need to be

harsher than than three days. I like a lot harsher, frankly,

but it's more Ellis because the all of the funding and horse

racing comes from the better. And if we look at that race and

you're on the outside looking in and you see guys just standing

up and letting other horses run by, the optics are so bad.

And I understand, by the way, if I understand all the stories

about the axe man, about Machado being a good guy, young guy,

figuring it out, all these things.

Sounds like he was very remorseful after the race.

I get all of it, I do. But man, at the end of the day,

the money comes from the owners, it comes from the betters and we

got to take care of those two parties.

Well, as a fine line, and I, I did tweet this out today, it was

a fine line between punishing the guy so it doesn't happen

again and being punitive. You know, there's an old saying

that horse thieves weren't shot for stealing horses.

They were shot so more horses wouldn't be stolen, which is

about sending a message to other people.

That doesn't work anymore. You know what I mean?

In terms of the other jocks in the room aren't really going to

tried any differently then they know that he he stopped riding

because he thought he won the race as opposed to any other

reason. I could see five days, I could

see maybe 10. But after that you get punitive.

But it's enough of a message for a kid, I think a kid that it'll

never happen again. Maybe other jockeys too, but you

know, you can't do much more than really tell them.

They don't talk to their agents, nobody at the tracks that they

got to look at the programs they have in the jocks room and they

have to say this is where the race is.

I have to ride to the wire and not get cocky.

He gets excited when he's in front by 5 and he didn't hear

the other horse coming and it nailed him.

And you know, it does look bad, but the punishment has to kind

of be that fine line, as I said. OK, Elle, start with us.

You mentioned your Twitter feed. Tell people where they can find

all the stuff you're doing. It's just at Uber Capper and

that's where I post almost everything.

I do have the same thing on threads.

And really, I mean, I do a day a race of the day for Keeneland.

I do a race the day for San Diego's website.

They're all available free. I do a race the week for

Equibase, which is usually the feature Rick race on a Saturday.

Like for this week, it's the Raven Run, which is also found

on America's Best Racing in the Pollock report.

And I do a couple of I never know who anybody's sponsor is,

so I don't mention but you on my Twitter feed.

I do a couple of blogs. I do a couple of blogs for AD

WS, Keelan, Select and Amwager. Again, free, no paywall, nothing

else. If you want to sign up for an

account, that's fine. But it's just content that I've

been doing for 25 years to 911. Give pics.

But to put people in my head, if you're interested of what goes

into it, you know, I say, I say, I say all the time that none of

us that love handicap in the races should ever stop learning.

I get more out of conversing with folks like you, other

handicappers, people I meet the races about why they like a

horse or maybe something they saw that I didn't.

It all goes into this brain of ours and I never think I have it

all. So I try and do the same thing

by imparting my methodology and and easy to understand in terms

of what I saw in the PPS or in a video that somebody else can use

when it's a race I didn't handicap that they're looking at

and maybe find some value. All right, well, he's at Uber

Capper and he's on 708 websites. You heard the man.

So go find him. Lots of places to go find him

there. I wanted to ask you just a

little bit about no problem at all.

I wanted to ask you, it's your second trip on the show here.

If you allow yourself to start looking forward to these

Breeders' Cup matchups and maybe like what that that last turn,

that second turn in the distaff will look like with idiomatic

and Torpedo Anna, do you allow yourself to kind of run those

races out? So that the honest answer is no.

Many years ago I was asked to do like top ten lists for the Derby

and for Breeders' Cup. And I find that that gets my

head in the wrong place because I want to wait until I see who

exactly is running and the makeup of the race in terms of

pace, shape and stuff like that. So I really don't certainly it's

hard as a human being to not remember a horse I saw either on

TV or live at Keeneland or Churchill.

You know, where I'm, I'm local to Kentucky where I saw a horse

that ran really well. It's difficult to do that.

But for the most part it's, it's one of the one of the joys of

not only, you know, being I just turned 65.

One of the joys of being older, one of the joys of doing this is

my brain can be a sieve sometimes.

It's fantastic. It's when I open a race card I

mostly forget anything about these horses histories unless

it's a horse I had a big score on.

So the answer is no. I don't think about it until I

actually see the draw on the fields and I take a look at it.

Hope that I'm not that. Hopefully everything's objective

at that point and not subjective about a horse that I love for

some other reason. There you go.

Well, all right, do do you? Do you have a favorite between

idiomatic Thorpena? And I'm going to ask you anyway.

If they were that way, I, I I got your note.

What? Yeah.

So yes, I I like idiomatic is actually run faster, at least in

terms of the echo based speed figure this year than she did in

the Spencer coming into it from last year.

I think she ran a little faster. And yes, Sir Peter Hannah can

win on the lead, but she also can rate.

Idiomatic is not going to rate. She's going to go.

And she's the kind of horse we've seen throughout history.

And I can't name them all because I'm a horrible

historian, but she's the kind of horse throughout history that

when she gets on the lead and starts getting into her stride,

she gets so brave that the mental component kicks in and

she'll look at a horse in the eye and just say no, no, you're

not going past me. You know, we've seen a lot in

the Distaff over the past few years, so I love Torpedo Anna,

but it in if it was a match race, idiomatic beats served 9

times out of 10. And I think that short stretch

at Del Mar plays very well, the idiomatic as well.

So we'll be it'll be interesting to watch.

I do think, I think what you said about torpedo Anna, though,

to her, you know, to her credit is true that she can run

different styles. We saw her off the pace in the

cotillion, certainly off the pace in the traverse.

A little less time to make that move at Del Mar.

So I'm sure she'll be in much more of a stalking position.

The classic this year. I, I, boy, I feel like the last

couple years and then we got the favorite last year, of course.

So what the hell do I know about horse racing?

But you know, it feels like it's been kind of an open division

the last couple of years. Is this the year we could get a

three-year old again? Well, I think, I think for sure,

I've been hearing a lot about City of Troy, haven't we all?

And do it everybody else watch a couple of races, you know, and

just he's a beast. The question is whether he could

be a beast in California. I don't know.

All the Europeans have tried dirt haven't done that.

Well, I really like Arthur's ride when he run, but you know,

he's a horse that hasn't run since.

I'm waiting to see what goes on here with this.

All the horses that are training up to the British Cup classic.

I do tend to like 3 year olds. Of course, you know, door knocks

out now so you can't use him. Sierra Leone, you know those

they didn't they didn't they didn't do much.

So Torpedo Anna, it's not going to go in the classic.

I really think that probably a horse like City of Troy that

again is so confident in coming into the race first has an edge.

Normally I would like an older horse, particularly a one that's

a four year old, but at this point it based on the horses I'm

seeing, they're likely to be in the race.

I think it'll be a three-year old.

Wanted to ask you kind of a little off the wall question.

We're going to San Diego this year and next.

Where should the Breeders Cup be after that?

Well, you know, again, this is not me being a chauvinist or

Homer for Kentucky, but the reason Keeneland investing

millions of dollars, the reason Churchill invested millions of

dollars was mostly for Derby, but Keeneland didn't do it for

Derby. The reason Belmont investing,

you know, so the the construction at Keeneland, I'm

going to add a few more thousand seats, so really some good

venues looking over the paddock and of course I'll put up temp.

So you know they're supposed to be done before the fall meeting

next year, but not for Breeders' Cup just in case the

construction delays across. It's my understanding.

I don't have inside information. So Keeneland 2726, I don't know,

you know, it it, it should probably go to Belmont if

Belmont's done or Churchill. And I think we need to go back

to a West Coast, East Coast rotation.

Of course the weather is iffy. We know that.

And we lucked out. Last time Kilo hosted the

Breeders Cup was 70, you know, 70°.

It was windy, but it was 70 here, right?

Well, it's going to believe it or not, it's going to be 70

Friday, 72 on Saturday, 74 on Sunday and 75 on Monday right

now in the basically the third week in October.

So never know, you know, last time it was Churchill, I

remember it was 50 the the Senata blame year.

So you know, it was 50 and it was pretty miserable.

But I think I think it should go to New York or Belmont or

Churchill 26 and then maybe Keeneland 27, then back to

California. But if they do it one year in,

one year out, I think they're going to have to change a little

bit. So one of the tracks, probably

Keeneland in 26, California 27, Belmont 28, maybe Churchill in

20-30. I'm thinking way out in the

distance. But I think those tracks, those

tracks can host it. They they want it.

They've built some tremendous amenities for the fans.

Belmont's new things going to be beautiful for the kind of thing

the Breeders Cup once with all the upscale amenities.

Churchill already has that beautiful new Sports Illustrated

venue. On the first turn the home

stretch on the far turn the the suites so they're set for it as

well. Yeah, now it, it, I, I'm with

you. I think it needs to move around

a little more than that. And I think, frankly, they're at

Del Mar two years in a row just because of the construction

happening at the places you mentioned.

Belmont's not ready right now, right?

And frankly, simply, it's just not ready.

Hell, it's not ready for any race.

And Caitlin isn't going to be ready to host that kind of event

again until 2 years from now. So I agree with you.

It's probably going to start making those rotations.

Boy, Ellis, I got to tell you, if you can't have a turf course

in September, I'm not at all sure that you should have

Breeders' Cup in November. So we'll have to see if they get

that righted down the street from me here in Louisville.

I want to remind you though, our show is presented by

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and free shipping to your house. Now it's time to handicap and we

are headed back to Keeneland for the weekend.

Ellis I think an underrated day of racing.

I love these two three-year old, you know, longer sprints here,

the Raven run, the Perryville. They are clearly, in my opinion,

trying to get this Perryville to more than just a grade 3.

Do you think I'm reading the room right there by adding money

to it and and trying to get it up to certainly the greatest

stakes is good, you know, for the stallion ranks, but I think

they're trying to get some more of a Grade 2 with this race.

It, it will be, it'll be a grade two in a couple years.

You know, it, it's, it's a great race.

They got the Lafayette in the spring, which is not graded at

all. Perryville used to be not

graded. Now three.

It'll all depend on, you know, what some of these horses do.

If somebody comes out of this race and runs in the Malibu with

Santa Anita on opening weekend, you know, and runs in a grade

one, this has to go to a .2 for example, you know, at work or

runs in. I'm saying even stretches out

runs and rems in. But these, these are really

sprinters for now. I don't think you're going to

see anything that's really A2 turn horse out of the year, but

I think you I think they can do that.

Yeah. And I think the seven furlong, 3

year old thing, there's not a lot of these races this time of

year and this is a very, very high level version of that.

It is race 7. It's the start of the late pick

four there at Keelan. As we mentioned, 7 furlongs on

the dirt for three-year olds, $300,000 in the Kitty for this

one. They call that a grade one in

other states there, Ellis the old 300,000 look book of Danos

in here. And if you just look at speed

figures, I think you would fall in love and you should very

talented horse. Not his best showing frankly

last time out in that Grade 1 jerkins at Saratoga at this

distance under Javier Castellano.

We'll switch to irad on Saturday.

Is he deserving favorite here? He is deserving favorite because

he's bitten two grade ones, the Woody Stevens and the Jerkins,

even though he was third and 3rd.

But of course he wasn't fair. He's and Woody Stevens.

He wasn't favored and then in between that the non greeted

Jersey Shore. But the seven for long races are

really what's count. You know I'm a handicapper.

Most of them are when when you're looking at 7 for long

races, you want to find 7 for long form 1st and he's got that

seven for long cred the 12 length win at Tampa and the

Pasco in January. Then you know, you only got beat

ahead in the Saudi Derby when he went two turns, comes back and

wins the Woody Stevens again, beat, wins the Jersey Shore.

And then Alan Trukins was OK, but domestic product, I think

now he's retired, ran a good race in the race.

He's deserved his favorite. Whether he's that much better

than them is really arguable. This happens to be the race I

wrote for one of the blogs talking about Keelan Select.

And I have the one Henrow on top.

I have who Day second the four I have book em Dano and

Knightsbridge is contenders. And I'm gonna skip for one

second to talk about betting strategy only because people

you, you might ask me, but what do you do?

Please split the favorites. First of all, you don't play

exact as either short term, long term with Knightsbridge and book

em Dano together. So it's really easy for me.

For example, I play Henrow and who day over Henrow,

Knightsbridge, who day and book em Dano turning around play

Henrow, Knightsbridge, Hude and book of Dano over Henrow and

Knights and hude. If Henrow and Hude run 1-2, you

got twice, which is where you're maximizing profit.

That's the first thing that's that's the only time I talk

about value in terms of exact because I'm more of a win back.

But Henrow is a really interesting horse.

Talk about the dispensing of the comet.

So the Harrods Creek at Churchill, $295,000.

I think the reason it's 295 and not 3 is because it's three.

There's some threshold. I don't know what it is, but

whatever it is, but the difference between 295 non

graded in the Prairieville 300 graded is 0.

It's the same race to me. He just won it and it was

visually impressive. 4 wide going away, 7 furlongs.

Bayerano. He's a versatile horse too.

Before that he won the Iowa Derby.

He is again comparing buyer speed figures.

I look at Echo Base as well. He's faster.

There's no question on both. I'll just give you the Echo Base

speed figures. The last three races, one O

710-8105, Henro was a one O 1 in the Harrods Creek Henrow.

Also on June 6th in a classified allowance at Churchill, beaten

3/4, he got a one O 3. So still a little short.

But these are still 3 year olds. They're still growing, they're

still maturing. Physically, mentally, Henro is

just a horse I can't resist because he shouldn't be 12 to

one against 2 to one from book. I'm down.

He's not 6 times less probable. So that's why I like him in

terms of why he's my top pick, so to speak.

And one of the keys who days the other one who days he was second

in the Lafayette in the spring. Then he stretched out and ran

the pat day. Miley ran 4th, 3rd in the second

in the mat win. Then he ran third Yellow Park

Derby. But it was a horrible race.

But that's that kind of weird one and half turn race.

And then Belterra. He want to classify last now

people, he'll be under bet because it's Belterra.

But I'm sure you you you follow Kentucky racing.

Tom Drury is a heck of a trainer.

He starts a lot of horses at Belterra and he trains for

McAfee, trains for Claiborne. He's a 20% trainer.

He's a great stakes winning trainer.

I don't care the horse is a Belterra.

He just wanted to get this horse mentally in a state where he

could win this very funny pedigree thing using Racelands.

I did. This is just looking up.

Even though the horse has enough races, not only is who they got,

five wins, 2 seconds and a third and nine races, but he's a full

brother to a horse named Everett's Song, who I looked up

who won the 2021 Harrods Creek, the same race that Hammer won

this year. So it's very fascinating to me

the same breeders bred this horse back and got another horse

that's already won almost 400 grand.

So that's why these two are my top picks for value as win bets

and keys. And no knock to book him down at

all except for the price. And Nicebridge.

Yeah. I mean, he's won two huge races.

Big layoff, one time layoff again.

He could fire. I trust Bill Mott, you know,

Bill Mott. We trust, as we say, in case you

didn't know, he's at half the Speakers corner who won the

Carter. So I think this is right up his

alley at 7. I can use him, you know, but

that that's how I'm seeing this race.

To start off the sequence of the pick 4, I'm going to use all

four. But in the race itself, I think

I'm going to try and make some good money in the exact list.

How do you handicap a horse like Lock that's coming off a huge

layoff from September of last year coming back for the first

time this year? I wrote a note about.

I wrote a note, I'll stop because I don't think he's

running. I wrote a note that says his

last, his workout at Saratoga was October 12th, so he would

have had to ship and I don't think he shipped.

And a little birdie told me that he's not shipping.

So I can't say for sure, but I believe that's the case.

If I was to do it, I would say I'm not sure that they're doing

much more than getting him prepped again.

Even though Todd Fletcher's great off a layoff, they're

prepping him probably for a race like the Malibu.

As I said, this would be to go to a grade one in December 26th.

Or set him up for a cigar mile, something like that.

Right. I mean, it really could be.

That kind of race, you know, in a couple of weeks up there in

New York, Ellis Starr with us at Uber capper on Twitter.

You can find him there. There's an allowance in the next

race a mile on the 16th on the turf there for three and

three-year olds and up for non three.

Life is essentially 130,000 in this one or a grade three.

They would call this in California.

A really fun sort of balance field here.

Ellis Irish aces has been really close many times.

The three-year old, the three, the three horse.

Excuse me here. The 10 dripping gold comes in

out of Kentucky Downs and I wanted to ask you about that

angle. We've seen Kentucky downs horses

this year come out boy, the the next race out has not been

fantastic. Are you are you?

Is that a sense of yours? Are you using that to handicap a

race like this? There's so many horses that come

in at Kentucky Downs and I really can't make heads or tails

of it. Honestly.

You know, you get horses that run lousy there because they

don't like the uphill, the downhill, the right hand turn.

You get horses like dripping gold to 1 by 6.

You have to just really consider it.

I'm I'm going, I don't I don't have to big.

The ticket's going to be right now.

I'm 5 deep. I may cut it, but I the Kentucky

Downs races are interesting. I can't take a stand against a

horse like Dripping gold because he ran so BIG6 length win 110

equity speed figure, which is like by far what's the second

best in the field of third? It's tied for the second best

with a couple of the horses I'm going to mention.

But on the other hand, and this is, you know, talk about

handicapping on top methodology and hopefully most listeners

understand this. This is a non winners of three

other than made in their claiming allowance.

This horse had nine tries at the non winners of two claiming

level allowance and they were good tries, but he was beaten at

2:00 to 1, beaten at 5:00 to 2:00, beaten at 9:00 to 5:00,

beaten at 9:00 to 5:00, beaten at 6:00 to 5:00 and then he wins

at 7:00 to 2:00 at Kentucky downs.

He's got three wins and three seconds and Four Thirds.

He's no stand out. I think there's value here and a

couple others, specifically the one and the two Paris and Bull

discovery. There's also a case made for

taking candy except for the outside post, but he's been 1st

to 2nd and fourth straight and Irish chases who you mentioned

who was really dropping in class and won in Keeneland a year ago.

But I really, if you don't mind, I was going to talk about the

the 1st 2 Paris is I'm a big Mike Baker fan, especially on

the grass. But Paris is interesting because

he's won three in a row. He was claimed for 40,000 by

maker at Saratoga. Puts him right into the 2X

level. He doesn't crush the field, but

man, that was visually impressive. 751 from the quarter

to the 8th to the finish and the last quarter mile pace wasn't

hot hot. We ran the last quarter mile in

22, 2/10 OK, that is just smoking.

I ran out. He's gets off to ride Miranda

right? So I can't really figure for

Mark Cassie, even though he rode the horse to a third and a

fourth before, but I don't mind. Saez rides a lot for Maker and

he's going to ride paros here. That 111 Echo Way St. figures I

mentioned is the best last race figure in the field.

And just the fact that he ran so fast from the rail, he could

save Brown if Saez gets a whole boom and he's a horse that

either wins or nothing. 6 for 15, four for seven on grass, no

seconds ever. 8 to one. Definitely valued the two bowl

discovery. You know and most folks know

this. This isn't about medication, but

when horses run in Europe or South America and they come here

in the allowance race and they run on Lasix, my theory is to

discount the bad races and look for the good one.

Assuming that they bled in their few races.

Otherwise they'd have six months off, 12 months off, or they'd be

banned in other countries. Again, this isn't prolastics

Louie. This is just talking about the

fact of handicapping. Yeah, sure.

Today, Thursday, I'd like two horses.

Strong opinions. I haven't had any yet. 1 was an

Argentine shipper who was 6 for eight with a second and then ran

really badly. She was 92.

Morning line. Today she aired it 3 to one.

The other was an Irish horse that had won a Group 3 in

Ireland. She had a really bad race.

She came to the US and ran at Kentucky Downs as you mentioned,

but in a state. So this was her first race on

Lasix. She won it nine to two.

Bold Discovery fits that entire entirely.

She wins a Group 3 in May at Leopardstown off a 8 month

playoff and then 10610. She comes here, she gets Lasix

and blinkers. She has a workout for a good

trainer. Underrated Andy McKeever gets

Brian Hernandez if people don't know the horses she ran against

in the last race she ran against Muta Sarif, who won, Diego

Velasquez who won two stakes in a row, and Mountain Bear who

just ran I think in the Kumar Mile if I remember correctly.

So this horse has a lot of class dropping from Group 3 to

allowance. I don't think a 12th 1's going

to hold up, but I really like the one and two here again for

win bets Keys and then I'll go deeper as I mentioned with some

of the others. You mentioned my horse on top of

the 12 taking candy. Do you consider the outside post

a bit prohibitive here? Not not with Jose and and in

mile 16th. I watched a friend of mine had a

horse today from a 12 post that ended up being 2 wide and 3rd

after before they hit the turn. I think there's enough horses

inside that don't have any really desired lead 8.

Mr. Muldoon will probably go to the lead and that puts taking

Candy in a good spot. So I'm I'm not worried about the

post as much. He could probably, the horse

could probably take up second or third.

He's as fast as these. But again, with three wins and

two seconds, those two seconds are interesting.

They're both in stakes and both his allowance races, the 1X, the

2X for wins and he gets Jose Ortiz.

Of course, he's going back on like 6, which were his last two

wins and the stakes weren't. So I'm going to definitely use

him. I said 110121012 is for sure

it's 4D but I'm going in the race and again, maybe Irish aces

but I'm not worried about the post as much as some people

might be. Ellis mentioned Mr. Muldoon, the

8/3 for three since switching back to the turf up at

Canterbury, gets the try on Saturday at Keeneland in the

allowance in Race 8. We moved to Race 9.

It is the Grade 2 Raven Run. This is for three-year old

Philly. 7 furlongs on the dirt, $350,000 in this one.

We've had some really cool horses win this race, Ellis, and

it stands out as one of the very, I think one of the jewels

of this meat horses in here that people certainly have heard of.

Emery, who recently ran in the test will be the favorite.

Almost certainly my main squeeze in here.

If you watch the Dogwood and watch her dominate the Dogwood

at this distance, utter Louis size, who keeps them out there.

I think a really fun field here. Emery at 7:00 to 5:00.

Man is, is she worthy of that number.

She'll be the favorite because the test and because in the test

she finished in front of my main squeeze.

Is she worthy of that? No, because you know, at the end

of the day, and I do this all the time with people, you know,

handicapping is art and science. It's mostly art.

The science is determining probability.

And I think if you ran the race 100 times, my main excuse to

Emery would win the same number of races about 2830 times out of

100. About 5 to 2 is where they

should both be. Emery's really over bet with

that. And with three-year olds, you

can assume they're still maturing a little bit.

But this is this. I looked at this race strictly

from the perspective of speed figures and using Myers or Echo

Base, I don't care. Whatever you are, Emery's no

faster than my main squeeze. On my main squeeze, one of the 8

bells, she got 100 Echo Base speed figure.

And that was on a sloppy track. And that was, of course, May

3rd. And then Emery won the Leslie's

Lady a month later, and she got a 9080 Echo Base speed figure.

So she ran a little slower, just slightly.

But then the victory ride in the Test 9899, my main squeeze 98 in

the Charlestown Oaks, which is really A2 turn race, but then 96

in Dogwood when she won by 5, she could have gone faster.

So I think if she if my main, it's an if, then if my main

squeeze repeats the Dogwood and if Emery repeats the test,

they're equal in my mind. So my main squeeze, I think 4 to

one's going to be a little reset, but I would take five to

two or three to one on her. I definitely use Emery in the

sequence, but a couple others are just as fast in my opinion,

are almost as fast and offer so much value fibre.

The one who is five lengths behind my main squeeze before

that one, the Autobahn Oaks and before that ran a race to

Churchill. Now again using Churchill for an

example, June 28th 6 1/2 at Churchill she won by three was a

optional non words of 2X, almost a six race.

She got a one O 2E base figure. She ran faster than either of

these horses. Why should she be 12:50?

Well the reason she's 12:50 is because, and no disrespect to

make tomorrow, it's a tough job to make a line.

But my main screen is bearded by 5.

I see that, so that makes sense. But her race, Her two races

before that are absolutely good enough to win and the other one

is hauling ice on the outside with a similar thing.

Probably didn't like the two turns in Charlestown Oaks.

Her one turn races are phenomenal.

Four wins, 3 seconds and seven one turn races.

Nothing wrong. She won the Azalea Stakes at 7

for long, the only time she ran 7 around one turn in her career,

and she won it by 9 lengths with a 98 echo based speed figure.

So 12 to one. So I get my, my, my philosophy

of this race is going to be similar to the Prairieville

where I'm going to take split the favorites in the exotics and

like just personally and people can do this and try and play the

prices. So I for this case, I would take

like fibrin holon ice over my main squeeze, Emery fibrin holon

ice, reverse it, play my main squeeze, Emery fibrin holon ice

over fibrin holon ice. And if my main squeeze never in

1/2, I lose. But that's going to be the

lowest paying possible combination.

But I think there's lots of ways.

If anybody talked to me about any of the other horses race, I

probably wouldn't argue because a lot of these horses still have

not run their best races yet. So Louis size is going to keep

the amount on my main squeeze, which means that Francisco

Arrieta is going to be back aboard a horse that's one on a

synthetic that is one on a race taken off of the different

places running on turf. What would you do with Twirling

Queen here? She's obviously worked at

Keeneland, so we're not worrying about shipping here.

Ellis 12:50 Is that a good value on a horse like that?

I mean, she's just the winner, right?

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely three horses came

back out of that race to win. She's never she's gone 7 and but

that was early in her career so I can ignore it.

I love the blow out at Keelan. I think she had a race of work

since then. I don't mind October 4th 'cause

I think I printed these PPS a few days ago. 98 echo based

speed figure she's won on. She's won on all three surfaces.

And again, if I like for everyone Holland Ice, if you

said I think Twirling Queens is good, I would say yes,

absolutely go for it. You're getting that kind of

price definitely right. Yeah, I think the value's there

for sure. That is the four twirly queen

here. Jose D'Angelo trades there.

They'll close the card with another one of these classic

Keelan Maiden specials at the end.

Mile on the top here. This is for two year old

Phillies. Hunter K in the Kitty here.

Wesley Ward is usually great in these spots.

He's having a tough meet though, frankly by his standards at

Keeland, certainly hitting the board but not winning at the

percentage that we're used to here.

He has running away at 9:00 to 5:00 coming out of a run at

Saratoga in July, A little bit of time off.

And look, if you look at the, if you look at all the lines of the

form here, 25% off the layoff, 33% with two year olds,

etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. They're all great.

We got a chance at a single here.

Or are we going to have to use a couple of horses?

Got to go deeper. I I I-1 stat I looked at, which

is really odd because Wesley isn't known to this Wesley Ward

with turf route maiden specials the last three years, 1 to 25,

one for 25. This horse was 12:50.

Not not well regarded. The third horse they'd come back

to win the workouts are, you know, fantastic go to go for the

Lee the rails at 10 feet early in the meet going for the Lee

work to Tori did it a couple times.

It certainly can happen here, but not a single at all.

So I'll start by saying that I'm I'm 5 deep now and might cut it

back, but it's 867510 and I am still kicking myself.

Last Sunday, I know what race it was, but Gray in motion had a

second time starter stretching out a turf spin to a route at

8:00 to 1:00. And I marked it and I didn't pet

it. And it's what he does.

And this I didn't I didn't even have to watch the video of this

race, even though it says broke slow pinched run.

The running line is 814 back and the wire 4th 2 back.

So by Spikestown out of a dam that's thrown multiple winners.

Grand motion now after that win on Sunday is 7 for 30 turf route

sprinter route second time starters in the last five years.

Small number, but it's a it's a nice percentage.

I don't think she'll be 12th once Saez gets on.

He's been running Ruiz earlier in the meet, but he's using Saez

here. So that's my top pick in terms

of I'm not letting Motion beat me again after Sunday, I get.

It I get it. Take note of this.

The 6th ran at Kentucky Downs. She got better with every race.

86 second beating the neck. It was her first.

It was a actually, it was a mile.

She'd say that no knock to ask me since kids and Keith and

Eric, right? Great.

But when Torres rode this horse for the first time last time,

that was the best race ever. And again, she lost by a neck at

six to one. She's 92.

Morning line here, tremendous breathing for the sharp hours.

A ghost apprat of a tiny former mayor.

He screams route and turf. So the 6th is second pick Evelyn

Louise. Also Sprint Sprint route Biggie

Oliver had two winners of the meet on dirt.

I think they were stretching out off sprints with not great form,

but again this is a great pattern.

Just the thought of again people listening to yourself.

When I see it running on it looks like this 5433 and the

links behind the Sprint are 3357.

Basically means the horse is running even that projects to a

horse on the lead in a route. Now, again, you're going to have

running away to contend with as well.

But when running away LED, it was 2449, so not fast fractions.

So Evel Louise may have to lead here.

And Junior Alvarado's riding at Keeneland Saturday instead of in

New York. So he's like he's riding the mod

horse, of course, earlier in the card.

So Evelyn Louise is certainly a horse that could be sneaky and

I'm not going to let it beat me. One long price here is Grove

City Sunset, 9th in the debut but debut in a route second time

out at Ellis Park. Ran 4th beat in the length when

added blinkers and then Kentucky Downs round lousy, then round

lousy, 6th, 6th, 3rd and then faded and did nothing so made a

middle move. Can't say what but a decent

trainer and Kelsey Danner 30 to one.

I'm not going to leave him off. I'm not going to leave her off

my ticket. And the 10 Birkin girl is the

last one. Good debut sprinting at Ellis

Park and then at 72 favorite at Kentucky Downs ran lousy 9th of

11, so I'm 5 deep in the race. I could make the case for the

first time. Started Judith for John Thomas,

but the dams only throw that well.

First of all, I don't like horses starting first time out

of two turns in the circuit because it's just tough.

But he's won for 37, so probably stay away from that.

Answers that question for you. That's.

Right. Yeah, it's just, it's some

trainers, you know, like Kenny Mcpeak.

He always says he gives his horse a test drive a lot.

And Thomas does the same thing, apparently based on that.

But I rats riding and I wouldn't knock it, but it's tough.

I I, I, if I go shallow, I'm going to use high breeze.

Take note of this, Evelyn Louise.

I might try to beat Running Away only because of that stat with

Ward, which is just really odd for a guy that wins such a high

percentage to only be one for 25 and turf rat maidens locally.

It's small samples so I gotta be careful, but still I might I

might try and beat her. Yeah, if he's 2 for 26, I don't

think we'd be stunned, but yeah, that's it's hard to bet one out

of 25 for sure. My note said ask, ask Ellis

about the 8 high breeze. But apparently I don't need to

do that. We will lay it on the same

horse. So there you go.

Yeah, I I'm watching Grand Motion just pick off turf races

in California like it's fun. You know, whatever something is,

it's. What?

It. Is but he's he's he's kind of

trainer like Mcgahee, like Mott that you will he won't fire

first time out because he's getting them to understand

what's going on. And the second race is pull the

trigger. Yeah, Rusty Arnold always stands

out like that for me when I'm met and up here in Ellis in

different. Places for sure.

Well, he's, he's Ellis Starr. He's at Uber capper on Twitter.

Find him on 708 different websites as well.

Ellis. We really appreciate it, buddy.

We'll talk to you another time. Hey, thanks so much for having

him everybody. He has a great weekend, lots of

sun in Kentucky and enjoy it and make some money.

There you go. Thanks, Ellis.

All right, that was Ellis Cap Ellis, Ellis capper, Uber

capper, Ellis Star joining us here on the horse racing happy

hour. Reminder, October 29th, we'll be

hanging out at the BA Colonial in the South end of Louisville

across from Iroquois Park. Our annual Breeders' Cup

seminar. Come out and find us there.

No charge to get in. We will have a cash bar.

Jay Shepard Cigar is hanging out and our friends from

amwageramwager.com. They've got a promo going right

now, 150 in. They'll match up to that amount,

so up to $150.00. They will match dollar for

dollar in your deposit, so go check them out.

We'll be using them for all of our bets at Breeders' Cup this

year. My name's Louis Roubo, we're

going to get out of here. It's time to go put my kids to

bed and all of the other things. Thanks for joining us here on

the Horse Racing Happy Hour.