Keeneland Saturday | Byron King

That's true that's the horse racing podcast with the worst

music. It's the horse racing happy hour

Byron King alongside blood horse my name is Louie Robot as you

can tell not in the usual studio hanging out here at ESPN 681057

where you can catch me every weekday 11:50.

I'm Robot and Co and usually on Friday nights at 6:00 as well as

part of the Kentucky racing spotlight our friends over at

Churchill Downs hosting inside Churchill Downs during that time

slot right now young Byron how are you things good and.

Busy. For you.

I like being called young. Thank you, Sarah.

I know how to get. People to come, Charmer.

That's exactly right. Yeah, I've been married 1/4

century. From.

Byron, you settled down. All right.

Well, look, you just, you know, I love to, you know, one of the

things that's been a great joy of mine, Byron and you and I

have frankly known each other longer than, you know, me just

having, you know, Blood Horse Monday on my resume.

But one of the things I love about getting to connect at a

place like Blood Horse is those by lines we see with your name

all the time. We don't always get to catch up

with you and Bobby Hall, those guys, you know, Jay, Hubby,

whoever might be that are out there and getting to put you on

screen like this is awesome. How was your vacation very

recently? Tell people where you went and

what you did. Oh wow, isn't this fun?

Well, for for those that don't know, when I'm not at the

racetrack, I'm usually out in nature enjoying the the

wonderful beauty that our country has.

And I was on the Arizona, Utah border visiting a place called

the Wave, which is a unique rock formation that you got to win a

lottery to to go to. So I went there and had a great

time with some some good buddies.

So thank you for asking. No, that's awesome.

Glad it worked out. I was even able to to suggest to

the great hiking Byron King a spot in Puerto Rico that he's

got to go check out sometime. I'm telling you, the Caribbean

Championships are at Camarero this year.

That's a good excuse to get Blood Horse to fly you to San

Juan and then it's a 30 minute drive to UK.

Man, I'm just saying, I just. I think we should, I think we

should definitely submit it, yeah.

You and I should probably be the ones that go Byron King on.

With us. I speak the language at least.

All right, so Further Ado moves to the top here, and it's cool

to have Byron on this time of year, of course, since he is the

author of the Derby Dozen, one of part of a great line of

riders there at Blood Horse that have carried on the Derby Dozen

tradition. I was there on Saturday at

Keeneland Racecourse. As Further Ado went ahead and

romped against that field, our our mutual colleague Joe Perez

was very quick to point out that hey, this wasn't the field we

thought it was going to be. He also pointed out this is what

you're supposed to do against the lesson field.

So I, I will hold it up as a very good win.

I think it is he he owns a worthy spot at the top of your

Derby Dozen. Did you go into the day assuming

he would get there thinking he might or what did you think

going into the day? I was literally like, Hemming

and hawing of which one I should put first, Renegade or him.

And it was a tough call. I mean, essentially, it's the

same kind of call that Steve Rushing, the jockey agent for

Irad Ortiz Junior, had to analyze, right?

Which of these two horses am I going to ride in the Kentucky

Derby? And by the way, he chose

Renegade, according to reporting from David Grinning.

And that's probably the safer choice in the sense that, you

know, Renegade is 2 for two this year.

He won the Arkansas Derby handily.

Big question with further ado is can he transfer the brilliance

that we've seen from him at Keeneland to Churchill Downs,

right? I mean, he's had two races at

Keeneland that he has won by 20 lengths and 11 lengths.

His other races have been good, but not the same kind of

blowouts. So that's the big question.

You know, just what you mentioned just a moment ago too,

Louis is, you know, yes, he won by 11 links, but the Bluegrass

didn't have Paladin in it. It didn't have class president

in it. And those were the leading

contenders that many thought would would be in contention for

that race. So what was left?

But at the same time they were 11 lengths behind him.

So, you know, he he he ran up the score on them.

He got a huge buyer figure off the top of my head.

I want to say it's like a one O 6.

And and you know, I ultimately went his way for this reason.

I think sometimes we see patterns in things that aren't

necessarily patterns but just coincidence, right?

Maybe this horse is just a Keeneland freak, right?

And and runs at a far higher level there than elsewhere, but

maybe for other reasons. On those particular days, he

really just shined, right? The fact of the matter is he

does have a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs.

Renegade does not, you know, he does not have that proven

victory over the track. And through the years if you

know, a lot of times we've seen the top buyer speed figure horse

go into the Kentucky Derby and people pick against them for one

reason or another. Oh, it was accomplished with an

easy lead or it had the things where his body and then a lot of

times they win anyway. So, you know, ultimately I just

gave him the slide. Not on that, but I certainly

respect Renegade a great deal. Same thing with Commandment the

Puma. These are all very, very

legitimate good horses and it should be a exciting Derby.

Chief Wallaby, 4th on your list here and, and I wanted to ask

you, you know, cuz every year we're looking for that route to

the Derby that we think is the best quality, right?

And certainly the races in Florida this year inclusive of

Tampa as well, right? You bring up Renegade and that

Sam F Davis might end up being one of the grand stories of the

of the three-year old season. You mentioned the Puma, you

mentioned him. I mean, how, how telling might

the Sam F freaking Davis be this?

Year I know exactly, and this is a race that recently, I can't

remember if it was this year or the past year, but it was

downgraded from a Grade 3. It has through the years not

produced many Kentucky Derby horses for that matter, the

Tampa Bay Derby has been fairly limited to.

But I mean, there's no doubt about it.

I mean, you look at the Sam F Davis, he wins it, the Pumas

3rd, right? You know, I mean, those are two

of the leading contenders. Compare that to say, you know,

you know, even if you look at the bluegrass.

As much as I'd like further ado, I mean, I, I think a lot of us

accept the most diehards. If you had or unless you cashed

on the exact or the try, it'd be hard to remember who was second

and third because it was a somewhat forgettable opposition

in there, right. So yeah, it was it was a great

race for the the same F Davis and even the Tampa Bay Derby.

And obviously the further ado in in the Puma.

The Puma won that race and then missed by a whisker in the

Florida Derby. So it seems quite strong too.

So, yeah, you know, these things sometimes they vary very much

from year to year, you know, depending on who where the the

strength is. And obviously people like to

take their better horses down to warmer climates like Florida and

and the Florida Derby was a great race, which by the way,

has been the most productive prep through the years.

And this year was no different in terms of depth.

I mean, I think you could take three horses from that race

Commandment, the Puma and Chief Wallaby, and say all of them

have huge chances in the Kentucky Derby.

Yeah, of course, the connections of Mage.

Hoping they can run it back with the Puma this year.

Two horses right behind your top five that I'm personally

fascinated by. I think the buzz horse this year

will be silent tactic, not 100 point winner.

Everybody loves a deep closer Byron and so I think he'll end

up being that kind of horse. But another one that's

absolutely a candidate is 7th on your list here and it's the son

of candy ride in emerging market is going to go to the Derby.

Only his third start ever. You mentioned Leonatus 1883 of

the article as part of your analysis of hey, horses just

don't do this. A couple years ago ago, of

course, we had Justify come out in his fourth and then go ahead

and win his 5th and 6th as well within the next couple of weeks

as well. How good is emerging market and

is there a chance that I'm right about a silent tactic here that

he's the 1:00 because of that closing style?

The fact that he's not a top winner frankly reminds me a

little bit of Mystic Dan this year.

Yeah, very similar I'd say. You know, he might be a horse

that has to get the right trip. Maybe some of the other ones

maybe have to have a little bad luck or they don't fire.

But that happens in horse racing, right.

I mean, when you look at silent tactic, the he's been first or

second in every race. So a super honest horse.

And that by the way is quite uncommon for a late runner as he

is. You've got Hall of Fame trainer

Mark Cassie that's training him. You have an owner and John

Oxley, who's already won the Kentucky Derby, you know, so you

have some some definite elements to like.

I mean, you know, it's what's hard is you just can't it's hard

to get out of your head that Arkansas Derby when he he sits a

sweet trip, he moves up, he looks like he's going to win or

contend and renegade just goes whoosh, you know, on by.

So he's got to find a little more in his next race.

But at the same time, our Hope Renegade regresses that kind of

a thing. But he's he's legit, at least in

terms of belonging in the race. And I think, you know, you

mentioned Mystic Dan. That's a good example.

I mean, was Mystic Dan the best horse in the Derby?

Well, he was the best horse with Brian Hernandez going through an

opening about this big on the on the turn to to save ground.

And that was key in the in the in the victory.

Now they're the horses credit. He was brave and went through

there and a lot of horses wouldn't.

But I I think, you know, when we look back at that was, you know,

Sierra Leone and forever young were superior horses to Mystic

Dan. But on that day it was Mystic

Dan and and, you know, I think some of the other things that we

talked about. Who was the other horse you

mentioned? Not Simonton emerging market.

I'm sorry, my my escape me emerging market.

You know, experience is not what it used to be in the Derby back

in the day. We used to say, oh, you need to

have all these starts with two and this, that and the other.

It's very hard, first of all, to make the Derby with two starts

because how would you do it? I mean, you kind of have to do

it the way he did it, which is like win first out and then

qualify in a big points race, right?

I mean, there's really no other way to do it with two starts.

When Justify did it with three starts, he had a maiden win, an

allowance win, and then did San Anita Derby.

Mage took a slightly different route.

He qualified by running second in the Florida Derby.

So it can be done with limited experience, but it just stands

to reason that he's up against it.

But you know, Flavian Pratt is sticking with emerging market.

I think some of that has to do with loyalty to the Chad Brown

stable and and whatnot. That's a major client for him.

But at the same time and quite an endorsement.

So, yeah, these are horses that I think both of those two, you

know, they, they come with a little more question marks than

the, the first half dozen or so on my list, but they're very,

very nice three-year olds. Your top three all won a 100

point prep coming in. We have not had 100 point prep

winner win the Kentucky Derby since Justify.

Does that get snapped this year? In your mind, if you if I gave

you the top three in your Derby dozen or the rest of the field,

what would you take today in the Kentucky Derby?

Oh, wow, that's a good question. I would take the top three, I

guess. OK, you know, I I guess I would,

but but at the same time, I mean, let's let's be honest with

it too. Is is, you know, if you like

commandment, you gotta like the Puma.

He was only this far behind, Chief.

Wallaby. Is a chief Wallaby is 1/2 length

back and lightly race so capable of improving.

So, you know, we're talking a fine line.

You know, there is no I don't think there is a the equivalent

of the Michigan Wolverines in this year's Kentucky Derby.

You know, there's not one team that's just going to stand out

so far ahead of the others. And I think some of that

competitiveness is reflective in the Florida Derby.

You have potente, you have potente one spot ahead of so

happy as far as your Derby doesn't obviously both of them

coming out of that Southern California, a route to the

Derby. I was there for the San Felipe.

Byron, I won't lie to you. I'm I'm not overly impressed

with that group, but boy, I got to say so happy.

I'm wondering, especially with him, Byron, if I'm doing the

thing where I didn't expect him to do what he did.

So I'm very impressed by it because of that or if he

actually just ran a damn good race.

Which one was it in your mind? Can he get the 10?

Yeah, I mean, I I think the Santa Anita Derby, the reason

why I have them in the order that I do is is they've traded

decisions, right. So in the San Felipe Patente

beats so happy and then in the Santa Anita Derby, so happy

beats patente. Now the trips were different.

In the San Felipe patente rated sat just behind the speed came

on and won. That's what's so happy did in

the Santa Santa Anita Derby. I felt like Patente was, you

know, up with another speed horse who ended up finishing

last, if I'm not mistaken. And I think it just took a

little of the starch out of him. I think he would be probably

better suited from from stalking.

But ultimately, I think both of these horses I think are not on

the same level as the leaders in my Derby Dozen.

But I I think I have Patente in part ahead of So Happy because

of who trains them. I mean, let's face it, Bob

Baffert has won 6 Kentucky Derbies and two Triple Crowns.

If you overlook Bob Baffert at Churchill Downs on the 1st

Saturday in May, shame on you, right?

Yeah. We learned that with Medina

Spirit for sure. Byron King with us, of course,

from Blood Horse. His Derby doesn't appreciate him

sharing those thoughts. I catch that every Tuesday ahead

of the Kentucky Derby. Let's get into some handicap

here in our final segment on the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

Lou, your beau hanging out with you in the studios of ESPN

681057 the Maker's Mark mild I we don't need to do a deep dive

in this, but I thought it was very cool and very telling about

probable that we're going to see him again a couple times here in

North America again with notable speech being in the field here.

I like to say things like this. Do you know how I know that this

is a Grade 1 field Is that brilliant Birdie is 20 to one.

That's all I know this is a great one field.

Just your general thoughts about this race buyer.

It's loaded. I mean, you literally are

bringing back a champion. He was the last year's champion

male turf horse in notable speech, who, of course won the

Breeders Cup Mile and the Woodbine Mile.

And no one's running scared. I mean, it's just a kind of

amazing that you have all these great horses in there.

Besides him, you've got horse like Rhetorical, who was fourth

in the Breeders Cup Mile and won the Coolmore Turf Mile at

Keeneland last year. You have a horse like talk about

another huge long shot who's an accomplished horse in his own

right troubleshooting and you know, but Zulu Kingdom you have

in there, you have wolfies, dynacos deterministic is one of

the best turf horses of the the first half of last year.

I mean, it's a great race, but I mean notable speech, Charlie

Appleby, when he runs horses in North America, his record is

kind of like off the charts and he runs two and here he runs a

Mori City as well. And he has been known at times

to to surprise a little bit. But it's kind of hard to look at

a Mori City's form and and conclude that he's better than

notable speech, but just a fantastic race on a Friday no

less. So if that doesn't make you want

to leave or work a little early on a Friday, what would, right?

Post time of 516 Eastern Time, you can still get out there and

catch that one on the late double if you want, even at

Keeneland on Friday. I talked with Byron King from

Blood Horse Move on to Saturday. Now looking at the late pick

three, they have changed the pick 3 wagering there at

Keeneland to follow the rest. Certainly the California circuit

is what I think of immediately, the $3 late pick, 3 minimum, $3

races, 9:10 and 11:00 on Saturday.

And another, Speaking of great turf fields, we get to Jenny

Wiley to kick this one off Byron in Race 9, Phillies and mares

going 8 1/2, nine, 8 1/2 furlongs there.

Mylan is 16th on the turf, 4 and up, 650 in the Kitty.

Another one of these fields where you're going to know a lot

of the names. And when Maduro is 12 to one

coming from the West Coast, you know it's a great one.

There you go, Byron. I'll leave it open.

To you, you know, this is another stacked field, but this

is a race that through the years, like a lot of races for

Phillies and mares on the grass that Chad Brown has dominated,

right? So he has 2 clear contenders

here in the Suggesta and dynamic pricing, both of whom are very

high class. Suggest A1 last year and would

be my top choice in here. She won out at Del Mar at the

end of the year with just an incredible move and I mean just

really looks like a special, special horse.

Chad Brown. I should, you know, mention his

success. He's won this race 7 times and

there's been times without looking up where he's run, you

know, 12123, that kind of stuff. Dynamic pricing is his other

one. I would say if there is one

that's not among the the Brown squad, it would be lush lips.

Lush Lips cost like over $3,000,000.

Yeah, went went through auction and and has been just as good

this year as last year. But I would rate her just behind

those. But I think those three are the

class of the race in that particular order suggest a

dynamic pricing Lush Lips for me.

Of course, suggested last year was second in the first lady.

The other Grade 1, the October grade one for Phillies and

mayors over a mile there at Keeneland should be right there

and she won the matriarch as as Byron mentioned there as well.

The grade 3 Lexington. No Derby implications in this

one, Byron. It's been a while since we've

been able to say that, but mile in a 16th short stretch there at

Keeneland, Grade 3-4 and 1000 on the line, 3 year olds in here.

I'll ask you for your winner in just a second.

But if we were looking for the Gossgar of this year, a horse

that's going to show up in the Preakness, show up in some other

races, who might that be in this field?

Well, one of the I enjoyed writing up our preview for this

race and chatting with Joey Peacock, who is the owner of the

Hell We Did, which is a great name, by the way, the hell We

did. He is this horse is 1/2 to

senior Buscador, who of course won the Saudi Cup a couple years

back and was just a, you know, great horse.

So even though this horse comes from kind of these little

smaller tracks, beware him at your own risk.

He ran one O 8 flat in winning at Sunland last time and he's a

contender who's bred to stretch out, obviously, if he's 1/2 to

senior Bruce Gador to a mile and a 16th here.

Corona de Oro is an interesting horse to me as well on the

fence. This is a horse that has run

well in recent starts. So they could potentially go on.

I mean the only horse that could maybe have enough points.

To run in the Derby would be confessional, who has 15

already. The Lexington, just to backtrack

a little, is one of the lesser points races on the road to the

Derby. It's more of a tiebreaker.

That's where how it was designed and through the years we've had

a few horses take final cracks to qualify and and there's been

a couple that have won the race that have gone on to compete

some decently in the Derby. But most recently Disarm picked

up like 6 points for running third a few years back and use

that to to make it into the Derby.

So confessional if he won would have 35 points, which as it

currently stands is not enough to get in.

But there's usually defections and things and he could

potentially the rest of them are probably looking at if they want

to run in a Triple Crown race, looking at the Preakness, which

quite honestly makes a lot more sense for these horses.

I mean, I think the Preakness is the easiest of the three Triple

Crown races. I what happens is so many of the

horses dial in on the Derby and then only some of those are

going to come back in the Preakness because of the short

turn around. And if they do, they're at risk

of, you know, regression on short rest.

So that honestly is the usually the the better path for success

than for, you know, taking that home run swing for the Derby in

three weeks. But that's easier said than done

if you as a turf rider and not the owner of the horse who has

dreamed his whole life of the Kentucky Derby.

So you know. As Brad Cox said to be on Blood

Horse Monday, I'll train the horses.

Louis, you worry about the radio.

No, that's exactly right. He does have a pair in here that

I think are pretty interesting, actually.

He's got. Yeah, the pair of Ezum, who

didn't look great on debut at Gulfstream Park, moves that one

up to colonial winds easily under Flavian Pratt, who keeps

them out here. And then confessional, as you

mentioned, either of those stand out because he's, you know,

Morning Lines got Ezum, of course, as the favorite here.

If you had to bet one of those two, which one would you lean

on, you think? I would lean on confessional

more so than Ezam. Ezam while he won by 19 1/2

second out and certainly was a dominant winner.

You know, I just look at the company lines for confessional

and would conclude that he is the most likely winner.

I mean you just look at his his form.

First of all, he wins at Keeneland last year.

So he has that proven kind of ability to to handle the track.

But then you look at him, he runs against nearly who goes on

to win the the Holy Bull Stakes. Then he runs against Renegade in

the Puma in the Sam F Davis and then he runs against incredible

in the Virginia Derby. So this is a horse that is

battle tested against some some high class competition.

Certainly a big maiden winner can repeat those kinds of horses

do on occasion, but for the most part, you know, if you're

following the, the horses that keep the best company in the in

the class, I, I think I would lean in that direction, but I

don't know that I would. If you asked me like put your

single confessional in here, I wouldn't have quite that that

level of confidence. You know, it's I to me, I think

I, I think I'd spread a little bit in here.

I think I would use Corona de Oro, a big maiden winner from

Fairgrounds on the rail. Another interesting horse and we

didn't talk about the hell we did, which I mentioned earlier,

but decisive win. Here's an interesting horse.

Louis is this horse is a maiden running against winners and it's

trained by Doug O'Neill and talk about a bold move here.

So the horse runs first out and he he he's bent down to three to

1. He duels for the early lead.

He runs 4th, right. The winner of that race, Crude

Velocity comes back and it was just a Dynamite winner earlier

this month at Santa Anita. You know, most of the time, you

know, a trainer, particularly a winning trainer, a leading

trainer like a Doug O'Neill is going to come back in a maiden

race, right? No, they're putting him on the

plane and and running for 400,000.

So I think they think the world of him, they've spent $600,000

for him. Then he comes off a six furlong

workout, 111 and 1/5. So I think it's quite

encouraging the level of confidence they're showing in

this horse. So I would throw him.

He's 15 to 1. I think he'll get that down from

that, but I'd sprinkle him in there and some pick threes too.

Week off there in Southern California, at least at Santa

Anita Park, means those jocks are available.

You'll see Juan Hernandez and Antonio Fresio at Keeneland on

Saturday will close the card of the maiden special weight here

at Keeneland on Saturday and 1/2 on the turf. 3 year olds here.

Byron quick pick, 110K in the Kitty.

Well, I think you got to go with here's Johnny as your top choice

in here. This is a horse that's look at

the company lines that he raced against last year when competing

as a maiden. And then you throw in some other

interesting elements about this horse.

He's by Oscar Performance, who's a fine of tastic, A turf sire

and he's also very well bred. He's a full to a Grade 1 winner

on the grass. So here's Johnny looks very,

very good in this particular spot with some consideration as

well I would give to West End kid and coordinator.

Yeah, I would give a West End kid my nod on top here.

At some point, Tyler's going to win a race at Keeneland, and it

may as well be for Will Walden on Saturday.

So there you go. All right, Byron, we appreciate

you very much. Of course, bloodhorse.com for

everything. Byron's working on the Derby

Dozen, all the other things, and you can read his preview of the

Lexington and the hell we did the connections there with Todd

Fincher and all that up at Blood Horse as well.

Byron, appreciate it very much and I'm sure I'll catch up with

you on the line. You're most welcome, Louis.

See you. There you go, Byron King with us

here on the Horse Racing happy hour.

Appreciate him jumping on the program.

We'll let Byron get on out of here.

Remind you some programming on this show tomorrow, 2:00, we'll

do Socal Saturdays. I mentioned that they're off at

San Anita. Barry and I are talking low Sal.

You're damn right we are. We're going to talk some low Sal

here tomorrow, so make sure you get tuned in for that tomorrow

morning. 10:00, 10/20 segment. I should say Audra, Boneco,

Danissel, Mr. Keeneland himself will join me to do a little bit

handicapping. You'll hear his opinions.

Go with Byron's not dance, but listen to the radio anyway

tomorrow. I blew your vote.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.

Back at it tomorrow and we hope you'll be here with us as well.

Good luck with all bets today. Thank you.