Kevin Kilroy Previews the Indiana Derby

All right, so we do have Kevin Killory.

We'll invite him in. Here he is at Trust Your Luck on

Twitter. He's the king of KC.

Mo. What else do we want to say

about Kevin? Oh, he writes for First Gen.

Sports. How about that First

gensports.com does a A column. Kevin, I have to say Caitlin

Free is a friend of the show and she on Twitter was very

complimentary of the piece. Except for, as she pointed out,

so many of us have horses that we're just gonna bet on, right?

And for her, it was. You're so silly.

But we just have those horses we're going to bet on.

But that column started to pick up, pick up a little steam if

anyone doesn't know what it is. Essentially it is Kevin looking

back at what did we miss that we didn't bet on a horse over the

weekend trying to figure out the trends that are going on.

Kevin, how are you this morning? Where are you this morning?

I'm doing good. Thanks for having me on though.

Are you doing good? I'm living a dream, my friend.

Where are you this morning? I'm in Door County, Wisconsin,

Babies Harbor on the Lakeside. Got my inlaws have a home here,

so we come up for a week and have the 4th of July.

There's a small town parade that goes down the Main Street and

the kids love it and it's beautiful.

Life is good. Door County is that little

finger that sticks out into Lake MI.

Off the eastern part of Wisconsin, Will, you're in

college. You should know those things.

Our producer today is a young college student, Dan, did you

know that that was what a Door County is?

No. Oh, you grew up near Chicago?

I'm surprised by that. OK, yeah.

No, I did. I didn't.

I I I rarely got farther north than Lake Geneva.

Oh. OK, yeah, that's a good stopping

spot. What about Michigan, though?

People tend to either go into the Michigan camp or Wisconsin

camp from the Chicago area. I agree.

Yeah, we we, my family had had a cabin when I was in high school

on a little tiny lake called Turtle Lake, and it was more of

a fishing You could only have a wake from like 3:50.

So yeah, you could only water ski 10 to four.

Other than that, it was for the fishermen.

But Wisconsin's beautiful. Yeah, it is.

It's it's a surprise. You know, it's a lot of great

people's, you know, especially in the summer when they get, we

get lively, you know, the winter, everybody's kind of

turned in and honoree, right. But the the sun is shine and

then the days are long and everybody's up, you having a

good time. So Wisconsin really opens up to

you. Well, there you go.

Kevin Kilroy with us First Gen. Sports First gensports.com for

the stuff that he started to write there as well.

You catch him of course on the track feed of fairgrounds.

I'm working track feed today and tomorrow at Horseshoe

Indianapolis. I've done it before, Kevin, but

what are your basic tenants for doing track feed work?

For doing track feed work, like feeding the horses.

No, no, no working on the simulcast.

I mean, I think it is. You know you want to look into

Camera Louie. It's not radio.

You want to. You want to don't look at the

person you're talking to. Talk to the people.

Make sure you have a shirt on, that kind of stuff.

Put a shirt on. You know, I think being

animated, moving around a little bit is good.

You know, give something people something to look at and then be

concise and, you know, just just pop, just pop.

It's all got to pop. Give out winners, right is a big

part of this. That's the main, that's the main

one. Bingo.

There's that too. You want to give out some water?

Yeah, you got some good picks for for today.

You got if you already gone over.

I did. So I'm doing the early pick five

up there today and we have not gone over them yet.

But no, no, you're good. I think in race 6 the Ravelli

horse romps, but I love a six to one horse in race 5.

It's a state bread allowance. Angela's coming out of a a win

in a maiden special way at a faster time than the horse

dropping out of the stakes is in that race.

So if you wanted the longer shot horse, the one in Race 5 in

Indiana would be my longer play today.

Love it and hopefully you get to run into John G Dooley.

He's. Of course, yeah, yeah.

We're having dinner with John tomorrow night, so.

You okay. Great, great, great.

So we'll do that. I don't know, Dan, have you

spent much time with John Dooley?

I've never met the man. How about that?

There you go. There'll be a couple of tall

dudes. How about that?

There you go. Yeah, tall guys, they could.

We could hang out. I mean, yeah, Dooley is so

great. Yeah, I get to spend time with

him down in the fairgrounds in New Orleans and he, you know,

he's he's a man of his spots and he, he's always got a good spot

that he goes to each night. So you kind of just hop a ride

with Dooley and you'll find good spots throughout New Orleans.

He's a good one to follow. Well, there you go, Kevin.

Kevin Kilroy with us at Trust Your Luck on Twitter.

All right, so you're looking at some of the derbies for this

weekend. Where did you land other you

have a piece up right now about the.

The Indiana Derby, obviously. The Iowa Derby going on this

weekend as well. Indiana Derby.

Interesting field we get verifying we get raised, raised.

Kane who has confirmed for for Indianapolis this weekend.

Did you land on anybody in particular outside of those two?

Yeah, I'm all about the Calvio's throwing here.

The 8 horse in the in the. Yeah, the number eight, I think

8:00 to 1:00 in the morning line there coming out first to read a

bow. A horse that was down with me in

New Orleans and I got to work at work, watch work out and spend

some time with, wrote an article about him.

All that sort of good stuff. He's, you know, he's poured of

bread, been really well intended the whole time that they fought

Kentucky Derby for him. But he's been a project.

He's mentally just a little bit of a nut, pretty, pretty, pretty

local. But you know, in terms of

watching a barn work with with a with a with a crazy colt.

No better than the Street of O Bar and they've been so good in

terms of just that, letting him go to his own pace and and coach

him around coaching him along. He has the talent always has had

the talent. He started to really figure out

the race just a few back and he got that layoff after that

Louisiana Derby and you can you can draw a line through that

Derby because he broke through the gate which always, you know

run through a wall before you run, you know, a mile and 3:16

and you're going to run a little bit slower, right?

And then it was such a horrible pace set up right we had that

King's barns just walk the dog out there so that was a you know

a race you can kind of draw a line through that comeback race

at Churchill A2 on 3rd raft which is right there with

verifying and that wasn't that was the prep race for this it

was one turn two turns is his jam according to Sharita Bowe

and I think he's going to step forward now he's going to need

some paste to close into. He does fit midpack.

And I mean I think Horseshoe that plays pretty favorably to

those those forward runners also inside draw.

And so he's got a little bit of tough there.

But I don't know what do you guys think?

I think this is going to be a pace meltdown.

I think it's going to be really sharp at the front.

And here I think the one and the three got that Rebelli horse who

looked good on the turf act the fool last time and then you got

transect, put the blinkers on for that first start.

They're off the layoff. I think they're both going to be

wanting the lead. I think verifying is going to be

in a tough spot either trying to go in front of them which you

know we saw what happened in the Derby when when that when that

happened. I think he sits better pressing

and they had that wild card. The number six stay in your lane

who's going to be going from Sprint to route.

Doesn't look like he belongs in the race.

Maybe the owner just wants to be in there was a horse that I did

get some some pushes on when he. Debuted there in March at

Fairgrounds. So there is some talent there,

but just hasn't really been showing up.

Maybe an excuse last time according to my trip notes here.

So I think it could be interesting in in messing things

up for verifying. So I like Kyostro.

I'm going to try to be verified. Try to beat them out of the out

of the, out of the money altogether.

Play a Tribecca to go for, go for it all, go for the big

score, yeah. Kevin that that cult the 8th

horse for Sherry must be a good looking cult.

They they paid 385,000 for him in a 2 year old in training sale

and he's by upstart that's that that might be as much as an

upstart can bring right there. So I like that pick.

Yeah, absolutely. No, David and Gordo knows how to

how to pick him out. He definitely has that has that

ability, right, a great record. And yeah, they they paid a good

pretty, pretty for him, you know, I think.

He yeah, I think he's going to step forward from that last

effort is just all about getting that, getting that pace set up.

Kevin Kilroy with us here. Honestly, Lou, we're taking you

up until noon. Bobby Vee after us at noon, fast

break Friday and of course first replay three to six.

Love the mixtape today around 5:30 as well.

We're talking Indiana Derby and those races we're having Brad

Cox on after you. What would you ask Brad Cox

today, do you think? I would ask Brad Cox, what are

you going to do with that speed draw on your inside?

Are you going to try to sit right off of it or are you going

to try to get out in front because you know, verifying has

a sharper pace figures, early pace figures.

But you know what is his preferred running style?

Is it to sit right off of it or is he can he get bullet on the

lead? I think that would be the big

question just given some insights in terms of how that

the race design is going to be, because I think that's an

interesting part of handicapping this one.

What do you think of Collie Ostro Dan?

Yeah, no, I I I like that. I like that pic.

I I don't know, I I I wish that he had Torres up instead of

Morales. But I I guess that's okay.

I was going to ask you actually, because you mentioned you

mentioned Larry Ravelli, an act of fool who's coming off of the

turf. They they ran here, ran him,

excuse me, in that in that Hawthorne Derby, comes back

here, gets back to to dirt. Larry Ravelli does everything

well, So we're not worried about that.

But he does pick up Orlando Mojica here, who I do think is

an interesting move as far as jockey, but a positive one as

well. I think he's tipping his hand a

little bit here that he thinks this horse has a serious shot.

You and I, Kevin, have talked before about, for example, Kenny

Mcfeek, runners. If you see Brian Hernandez Jr.

that's it right that you know Mendel since March earlier this

year, we thought he was kind of tipping his hand about who he

thought had a real shot in the bluegrass leading into the

Kentucky Derby. Yeah, we should have played a

rattle and roll last week. I mean, I made that mistake of

going smile happy instead of following DJ.

Yeah. And so there it is.

That's a great example. Actually, Raised Cane was a

horse that you were very high on prior to the Kentucky Derby,

didn't run well last time out in the slop.

Is there any concern for you about Kali Ostro if it is wet in

Indianapolis tomorrow? Let me think here real quick.

Do we have any? No, no performances.

On the wet, you know, I mean in general if I think a horse is in

form, I don't care if it's if it's wet or you know or fast or

whatever. Unless I've seen something to

the contrary, right, where I've seen that just all they just

don't want to run on a wet track.

So I I trust the form more than I do worry about the surface.

So I I think he should he should be good.

But you know if it's wet we might have some scratches so

that could that could change some things up.

But no I don't I don't have any concern about that.

Kevin, what about what about the Oaks is, is the Oaks just a 2

horse race like the morning line states between taxed and

defining purpose or is there somebody else in there that you

might play? Well, remember we were talking

last week for the other card there and on the Stephen Foster

day with that Sandra D, that Steve Margolis horse that I was

interested in. I think it's really curious that

he scratched out of that spot and entered into his oaks, you

know, seemingly tougher spot. This is, you know, George

Messina as part of the ownership group here.

And he does great work with the horses that he owns and runs the

fairgrounds. Steve Margolis brings his horses

along at the right time. We're going for that second

time, going two turns. We saw some really nice speed

for that first effort there. I think we're going to step

forward. We see that bullet workout.

So I'm interested in standard D I'm also interested in #6 Lily

Pooh. Looking at that Summer Oaks run

from a Lily Poo, I think she looks fantastic.

She was running in tight in that second term, but really bold and

making a great move was wide. Just didn't quite have it to

kick home at the end there and traveled wide throughout.

So I think we're stepping forward at the right time.

That's what you got to remember with these three-year olds is

that they're continuing to improve.

They're they're maturing mentally as well as physically.

And I think Lily Pooh, the number six, is sitting on a good

one, but tax is hard to deny. That was a big effort, a nice

modest step forward. And I think we're going to see

another good run from the two. But those are the three that,

that I like the best. The Oaks is interesting because

the the Indiana Oaks itself. Something I love to do, Kevin,

is I love to try to figure out which races are good predictors

for success in following races. So for example, the Florida

Derby leading into the Kentucky Derby or the Santa Anita Derby

into the Kentucky Derby for example.

In a more obvious one, there is no great.

Prep race for the Indiana Oaks, you know, and that's that's

understandable. But we did have two years ago

Sue say shipped in from California out of that out of

the out of summertime Oaks and she ended up winning the Indiana

Derby Interstate Daydream last year wins the Black Eyed Susan a

Pimlico ships in wins the Indiana Oaks.

And so it is it's more about, you know so that was with a

Flavia and Pratt three years ago when we had the the weird COVID

year. And the Indiana Oaks was before

the Kentucky Oaks, She dares. The devil actually won.

The Indiana Oaks Talk Vov to me won this race five years ago.

So it's a quality race As far as the Phillies that end up winning

it, are you looking for anything from a previous performance as

far as, like, you know, you mentioned a Lilly Poo coming out

of a out of the summertime Oaks. Is there something, something

else that you might be looking for?

Because for me she's a toss, which is interesting that you

and I are are in different spots on that.

Is there anything else you're looking at?

Because I do think for example that that tax coming out of that

Black Eyed Susan, I thought she was so impressive.

Rafa Bejarano is on an absolute terror right now.

That's the horse I would be looking at here.

Yeah, you know, and talking to, you know, or here in Morris.

Talk on the Steve Big show after I mean he's really thinks that

she's going to continue to step forward.

So it it it's like in my pick five I'm singling Kyle Estro.

So you know I just want to be a little bit more spread here than

just the tax. But if I I wouldn't blame

anybody for for singling her she should she should be informed

and have a good run. But that's what I love about

these three-year old races that you can find value by seeing

that the race they haven't run yet.

You know you're looking at past performances but it's all about

projecting. Forward what they could do in

here. And yeah, I really do think Lily

Pooh was showing something there and what do you all think about

defining purpose? I mean I think it was a perfect

set up there in the in the Ashland, it really was.

And you know we just haven't seen anything come out of that

race punch bowl and Julie signing they haven't run.

So that's kind of. A little bit of mysterious

mysterious in terms of you know, who did she be.

We know those horses had great form coming into it in the you

know going into the oaks. She was working very sharp in

the morning maybe a little bit too sharp.

She was she was really put a lot forth in the mornings and she

was in a hot pace that was a that was a sick pace there in

the oaks. So she got an excuse but maybe

she gets tied up again in another hot pace.

It's it's she she could I mean if if the price was right on

defining purpose. She could be interesting.

I know the morning lines got 8:00 to 5:00 on that one.

I'm surprised to see that that she was made the favorite.

I think that that first finish line sometimes at Keeneland

gives us a false sense of who these horses are when they have

to be in deep stretch and I think defining purposes that

horse. I think that on the on the other

side you see like a Malifat win that race, win the Ashland and

you knew that she had another two furlongs in her right, that

there's a difference there. I think defining purpose

happened to pick off. Then early finish line in the

Ashland. Go ahead Dan.

I'm sorry. Well, she was 20 to one too,

let's not forget that. So that she kind of that kind of

she out ran her odds and didn't back it up with, I don't think a

great performance in the oak. So I I think she's a toss for

me. Well, there you go.

All right, well, he is, he's Kevin Kilroy.

He is the, the appetizer. To Brad Cox this morning.

So we appreciate him doing that. We're no, no, I'm making.

I'm making a segue. Hang on, damn.

We're going to St. Elmo in Indianapolis tonight.

Have you been to St. Elmo before?

St. Elmo No, but I know there's a

place called Kilroy's in Indianapolis.

You should go there. Well, Kilroy's is in Bloomington

and I was there one there to see.

OK, so the reason that exists is because a bunch of of beer guys

like me. Drink at the one in Bloomington.

And then when you graduate, you have to get a job.

And so you move to places like Indianapolis.

And then you still want to drink like you're in Bloomington even

though you can't. And so you go to you go to

Kilroy's to remember what you think are your glory days, and

then you have a bunch of kids and get married and you realize

those weren't your glory days. The thing, Elmo, I haven't been

there. So you're gonna hit it up a.

Little steakhouse, Yeah, a little old school.

You know, nothing's changing there in about 75 years.

Kind of steakhouse. Yeah, it's been there longer

than you've been alive. I mean, I actually have my

wife's cousin is from Indy. I can go ask her.

If you do, you need to push on this place.

No, no, no, no. We know what we're doing.

No, no, no. No, we know what we're doing.

Like, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, we need.

We need no push. I was asking Kevin, because I

do. I see.

You know, Hey, Kev, can you do the podcast?

Oh darn, I'm going to this restaurant in New Orleans is

usually what he says to me. I'd love to hang out, but I'm

busy eating at awesome restaurants.

That was a nice mosque is with Neil Pess and that's that's

something that guy Pess. If you can never go out to eat

with Neil Pess and just do it. Cancel everything and just do

it. He's the.

Man, there you go. He's got the killer at Trust

your luck on Twitter. What else can people find you

have? You were on a bunch of pods this

week. What were you?

What'd you do this week? What'd I do this week?

What do I do? Oh, I've got my my pick 5 plays

up on Twin Spires. So they'll shoot that video out

here pretty soon and you can little bet share action.

So they'll be offering you can buy a piece of that pick five.

It's like a $96 pick five leaning on the 8 obviously.

So try to find that then. Always on edge.

I've got my columns up on Twin Spires Edge so you can find out

that stuff. And if I was on another pod, I

totally forget. But you know that's how it is

when you're on vacation. 1st and on 1st Gen. sports of course

too. With the the articles.

He's shooting over our way as well.

Kevin Kill, right? We appreciate the time man.

Talk to you next week. Thanks guys.

Talk to you. Thanks, Kevin.

There you go. All right, though, I gotta, I

gotta pause the show real quick. I have something I have to do to

start the show. So yesterday we had our friend

John Sherva on from the LA Times, and I asked him about a

treat, a tweet that I attributed to Ray Pollock and I got got.

It was not a real tweet. It was by a fake account.

And I got a message from Ray last night.

Yeah, I got a message from Ray last night, and I told him I

apologize like I scrubbed everything that I could

digitally. I got rid of all the tweets that

we had made about releasing that episode yesterday, and I wanted

to apologize this morning for getting got.

It was said to me by someone that I trust, but obviously I've

got to do my own due diligence on it, and so I apologize to

him. I put John in a bad spot, so not

a good. Not a good moment for me

yesterday, but with promises to do better in the future.

So you go Dan.