Keystone Field Wins and Betting Manipulation

Welcome to another edition of the horse-racing happier.

Let's just call it what it is. Literally the best damn horse

racing podcast in America, America, America in the world.

The other places, what's right? I mean, six continents, Louis,

if they got people, we got listeners, let's go.

That's right. And they gave me an eclipse

award vote, so I'm ready to go do this mistakes, human beings

make rubber one. I don't do with them.

Well, lead with the boat on like the Steeplechase It up because

I'm gonna tell you right now, like that's like, you know, you

are allowed to abstain from whichever votes you want to.

I'm abstaining from the Steeplechase votes.

Will, you will do it out of the, obscurity of it.

You will vote, aye. I will be honest, I have very

much tried not to think too hard about the eclipse voting process

just yet. I want to, I want to be fresh

get into that. I'm planning a series of

podcasts about about the eclipse Awards.

And so know that we will cross that bridge when we get there

right now, buddy, we shall looky weekend.

I mean, what are we doing? Hey, what are we doing?

I mean, this is, when you think of Saluki about, when you think

about the horse racing calendar in a broad sense, it's literally

like, you know, the Manitoba Derby.

The, you know, the Prairie Meadows Devi, and then this

weekend, and it's like, that's it, I don't know what idea, what

else you get credential for. This is it man.

So I'll be down there. Media pass crushing the Saluki.

Little great reaction, 1 turn going a mile, I mean, look, when

you get Phillies a 3 end up going a mile.

At Churchill Downs. I mean everyone pays attention

that is what it is and I don't know what else to tell you Mike,

if you're not excited about it, I can't help you and how you're

thinking that far ahead to something like the eclipse

Awards. I mean, who cares.

Don't call ourselves. What are we doing?

I'll come on racing Seasons. That's just how are you Michael

you doing right now? You know, I'm great, man.

I just I'm living the dream. I'm gonna take a little road

trip this weekend, actually. Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna go go on

to Lynchburg Virginia. You're drinking some Cooper's

craft, yeah, hanging out with us tonight, the hundred proof so

that little Coupe scraps and I go see a terrible foot.

Game Lynchburg. So whose Liberty, okay, take

Liberty and Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech's terrible.

You know what? That's actually not a bad

hashtag that producers actors put up.

I voted for the other guy because that is going to happen

a lot. Like I'm going to have contrary

opinions and it's not I mean I'm gonna have to defend them and

people are going to come on the show and crush me.

And you know what, I think actually that will probably add

a little bit of intrigue to the show.

So the one thing you're going to get with our Eclipse award

veloute is, you're going to get a whole lot of transparency, I

think that's really. I mean, for me and I know it

will be for you as well. I think that, you know,

especially next year as we start more of the, you know,

transparency as far as Derby racing silks rankings.

Moving into other class sort of rankings on the website.

I think that people will notice that there's gonna be a ton of

transparency. Our Eclipse Award votes will

probably surprise no one in 2012.

I'm just gonna let you know right now.

I'm gonna go ahead and get the catheter bag for older dirt male

horse of the year, but totally, I'm going to go with Flightline.

No, she's shocker right there. I'm gonna go fly line.

So I believe if he had had Been put in the proper spot skin

Guillermo. Of course, Guillermo would have

definitely, definitely have 100% line.

I mean, look people, I mean I haven't said his name in a while

and I know you haven't been made.

You drink from the Keystone field.

Last week, little crowd of the claimant.

Is this the first time? Stonefield comes roaring up the

turn and kicks away to lead by three.

He's done field. The one to catch Intrepid hard

disk coming on strongly. Been a bingo fights on digital

down toward the rail. One Furlong remaining Keystone

field by two Intrepid heart continues to Rally Intrepid

heart coming after Keystone field.

He's don't feel digs down deep Intrepid heart searches,

Keystone field holds onto To do it and really needed a trumpet

heart there. So those look real terrific

race. If you didn't mean I wanted to

just go ahead and take, that was the first time that the cleaning

Crown was how the church is out. I will say that it's pretty neat

that because I think that that that event they've actually done

a pretty good job of kind of highlighting some smaller

tracks. I think like shit.

Yeah, the year that I had to make old stream too.

You know those places more tracks but I mean you know

cultures got I mean time of year and all that sort of stuff I'm

sure makes a lot of sense to be And they was not always how is

this time of year, though? Like when I horses ran in, it

was in July and I was in Minnesota.

Yep. So, I don't know if they just

pick a weekend or maybe lately has been.

I gotta be honest with you. I don't take the try to move it

to the week after Breeders Cup kind of AG.

Say we had the Champions over here.

Now, we have the claimers over here, kind of, you know,

juxtaposition, which is good. So, yeah, love it.

I thought it was a good. It was a good day even though it

got. I mean, you didn't get right out

and got snowed out, and they had to move things off the turf, of

course, but not ended up being a good day.

I felt free. Really pretty a fair day for

bets which was good. So no, I think I think good

horses one on Saturday and that's all you can ask for a big

days, goes a Gulfstream Park, all the way back in 2012.

And then in 2011, at the fairgrounds Canterbury every

year, except for 2007, she was Ellis and unto Philadelphia

Parking 2002, and then started a very so your course categories

were up in Minnesota there, so I love it.

Get us some claimers, but now we're going back to graded

stakes races and we're going to go to The Saluki.

But we got some things. We probably need to talk about

first. Yeah, so we speaking of Gulf

Stream, probably the biggest story in horse racing for sure

this week. But in maybe in a while, I guess

we talked about the way that the rules were bent and horse racing

and whatever else with drugs, a lot with what the trainer's do.

And yeah, we've talked a lot about protect minors to a during

a race that kind of stuff, you know?

Absolutely, yep. We got to protect the better.

Protect the better, protect the better.

Now we got a little better on better crime, right?

We got, this is a good way to put it.

Actually it is I mean it's people taking advantage of the

situation with the betting pool manipulation and it was at

Gulfstream. First off, I was shocked Louis.

I know you like the Quinella bet.

We're it's not something that's not something, we're very

familiar with because we don't have it at Churchill.

I don't think anyone in Kentucky has a quenelle about.

Yeah, right. I thought Keeneland may had do

it occasionally. Okay.

Not right maybe maybe not. I don't know the answer to that

but it Be more than once or twice a day which was what I

know they do it nairo for example there's you know they

have it at Del Mar for example but it's not a very common bed

in lots of places. Well, let's explain person to

Quinella. Bet is to your, the quenelle is

essentially an Exacta box in a single bet.

And so you get two horses and as long as they finish one, two in

any order, like any other pair of mutual wager, you get the

payout of, you know, they take the take out and then whatever

the payout is, based on where the bets are dispersed.

So within the Quinella pool and I like it because you can just

put five bucks on a Quinella rather than trying to figure out

250 on an Exacta box or something like that.

And so it's a bet, especially Gulfstream, frankly, that I

played quite a bit where I would play it for, you know, three,

four, five bucks, whatever may be up to nine bucks, something

like that, maybe include three horses for three dollar Quinn,

that kind of thing. And so it's a nice way to play

an Exacta box without having to think about it.

You can also watch the exact payouts compared to the Quinella

payouts and try to hit the better one.

So that was something. Kind of play against each other.

But of course, I believe talking about betting on an ADW, only a

Gulfstream. And what you're talking about is

something very different well, and just so people know to you,

like usually, the Quinella payout is less than the exact to

pay out. I mean it's almost almost

always, I think that was kind of one of the first red flags on

what happened down at Gulfstream because and I think that's

that's the appeal of it. A lot of ways.

I mean, you could take the 1 and the 5 horse and you could do an

Exacta box for a dollar and it's a two dollar bet, but it's

really to one dollar bets, right?

And instead you could do a $1 Quinella, which order you do it

twice and you're going to pay out, you know, really well for

the same amount of money and you know, the Quinella bet could be,

it could be a great bet. But in this case, we're talking

about how it's typically the lowest pool that Gulf Stream

has. So what they say like on the

five races leading up to this one or whatever is like 40 100

dollars on average in the pool. Yes, correct.

Yep. And that's a track and that's a

track. We're talking six figures in the

pick for pool. Pick five pool, you know, win

place show bets, well into those kinds of ranges as well.

So that's what we're talking about here is of the total pool.

We're talking one percent, two percent, something like that.

So let me tell people kind of what happened where the red flag

was what was going to be. I mean essentially we're talking

about about that was carrying about four thousand one hundred

dollars and about 18 thousand dollars was added to the

Quinella pool within the Asked very few moments before the race

and all of it using combinations of the 43, 21 number 5, Miss

Grand Slam. And so 88, you know, about

18,000 of that was on that the total pool for the crowds

around, 24,000 dollars, I imagine there must have been

some guy like me watching all the money, get dumped it on

different horses that were very unlikely to be of the

combination with the Kanellis guys.

Started to pop a couple more Grand into the other parts of

that. The reason it stands out is

because frankly that's a horse very unlikely to hit the board.

Even horse finished fourth by 10 and 3/4 legs.

The favorite wins at 9:49, that kind of thing.

But what that does is it generates a mirror pool in an

offshore book and so someone can go to that offshore book that's

been manipulated by the pool at Gulfstream Park and bedded to

that one with better certainty, maybe you put together a

three-horse Quinella, something like that and hit it for a much

better rate you know but much better pay out that you would at

Gulfstream Park by well that's great.

You had a very heavy favorite And so my sense is, you know,

because of this that, you know, this is what they call Pool

manipulation. So this is playing with the

total amounts that are in there. But also dispersing it amongst

horses that are very unlikely to be part of the winning bet.

And so, you know, in it's almost a little bit, like embezzling

money, right? So, if you were trying to

embezzle money, you need the United States, you might buy an

insurance policy and that you, you know, you cash it in the

first year. Well, there's a 10% penalty on

that. You don't care because you're

trying to just get the money into the country.

You'll take the nine grand on the ten thousand dollars,

whatever it might be. Be, it's very similar to that

here. And so it is It is something

that as Mike points out. When we talk about the Integrity

of the bet, this is a term that might use as a lot.

The Integrity of the bet, these kinds of things cannot happen.

I mean, this is, this is taking money out of.

I mean, if you're, if you're a guy that plays a hundred bucks a

week or whatever, and you've got five bucks on this race, that's

that's one out of your over 20 bets or something, right?

And it's you got to be able to be better than that and I want

to give credit. This is we're getting this at

racing Think Tank Dot.com and that is the Thoroughbred idea

Foundation that's Patrick Cummings, all the guys, down

there and lie. Icing said they've caught this

to the effect that Gulfstream has dropped the BET all

together. And you know it is, it is kudos

to them that they're taking out the smallest pool that they

have, which is most vulnerable to this type of manipulation so

that it protects Bettors longer in the longer term and so you

know it is is it going to take a while to get all of these out of

the sport? The answer is, yes, can we get

all of them out? Probably not because we don't

want to tell the smaller tracks. They can only offer win place

and show bets, for example, or you know, whatever it is that

they can bring in. There's going to be manipulation

to different places. What would be the best thing

possible is? If we can figure out a way to

protect especially the smaller tracks from this kind of

manipulation because frankly you know, you and I've worked at

Horseshoe Indianapolis and that's not a small track small

Track by any, you know about. But it's not look, it's not,

it's a trishul cycling, it's never happened.

Also we have in there, right? Yeah, that's exactly right.

So, and, and that's the kind of stuff.

We're, I mean, we know the people there and, you know, you

don't want, you don't want to track to get a reputation for

being a place where the bets are manipulated.

Right example because that it'd be its catastrophic I'm sure and

you know other bats have popped up they've said and Gulf Stream

has frankly been kind of a target of offshore bets and that

sort of thing as well, but it is its own thing, ain't no Brian,

who's who's running racing down there, if people know that know,

you probably don't because he got rid of the Gulf Stream drag

which existed for many, many years.

And so he's been a really forward-thinking guy and he was

the one who was pretty much right away.

They got rid of the Quinella so he's AIDS of relief.

Thinking guy, my hope is that they're able to within the

Stronach group and different groups.

Figure out that whatever that balance looks like and and so,

Good on them for doing this right away.

I mean, the the it's the proper reaction, if that's the smallest

pool, you have that 23 Grand will be dry or directed

somewhere else, and it's something that frankly, they can

probably survive without. All right.

So we have our special guests here and I got, I got to give a

little bit of a, like a lead-in to who our special guest is

because we go way back. David was a high school senior

went on. Well, I guess you guys probably

a junior when I met him, but I was recruiting for the Derby

basketball Classic 2013. He came in with, Three other

young men. Dylan a bar, Anton, gill who I

Louis. Like the greatest myths of my I

thought anytime Gil was going to be an absolute stud and just

kind of worked out, okay? And then a person who you know

is near and dear to my heart, Louis who continues to hang

around, I can't get rid of them, a koi gal.

I don't even talk about me. No, I I think I just feed him

his basically what it is so he's mine it's my charity case, I

don't know. But yeah so this is the whole

reason this podcast even exist is because of my time in the

Derby Classic and then I would radio stations asked me to come

on and talk about basketball recruiting which led to one of

the radio stations asking me to cover horse racing to cover the

Kentucky Derby which led to this podcast and long way and David

was always passionate about that.

I got to see I got to travel around the country and watch TV

playing different. Parts of the country.

I know I saw him playing Chicago and some other stuff and he's a,

he's a great guy coach at the North Oldham Mustangs.

And you know, also involved with horse racing Nation, David,

how's it going, man? Going good, thanks for having me

fellas. That's a hell of an introduction

there. David now was I wasn't he's a

second best basketball player we've had on this podcast.

So who is one Dan Issel? Yeah, I didn't say like Dylan

Like It Was Dylan. At it.

But yeah I mean nobody Anton knowing man.

Yeah Anton, Anton van. I think that whole his whole

right before his whole summer, right before his senior year, he

played that entire a you season hurt played for Gardner Road and

they were, they were sick. I mean, they were super good.

I'm trying to remember who it was.

Anyone else hear from the kid played in North Carolina?

Yeah, it's Hicks. Is that, who was?

Yes, it was as a excuse, we played in my senior year at the

fairgrounds in the big tournaments that they used to

host on what all day at all the courts up at the fairgrounds we

played them in that tournament. Yeah.

Eddie Ford puts all those courts up there.

Yeah, that's right. He actually David had a that

that group with the Derby Classic was one of the most fun

groups Terry was in that Carriage Aronson.

That class no Terry. Terry played in the derby class

of the year before, but then he had to sit out and go to

Hargrave, Yeah. So he so here actually played

yeah. Before he knew he had to be in

the fifth year but you had we had five guys going in ba in

that off. That sure be classy.

So Tyler Ennis and drill a drill Martin who was a McDonald's,

McDonald's All-American, Jordan Mickey scenario, thornwell and

then Troy Williams who went to Indiana ended up, not getting

drafted, but he played three years in NBA.

Yep, and when I look back at those guys, it was just a fun

group, Derek Willis and Dominique Hawkins.

We had the The tennis pro Conner frankamp, who, like, literally

looked like, he was getting ready to go out and like had the

receding hairline. He had the fluffy socks.

Look, he's like Pete. Sampras before pizza was

basically modern-day. Kyle Macy is what it was.

Yeah, and Dominique Hawkins. So Connor is playing point guard

for them. For the I can't remember if you

use the well, he had to be on your team David because you had

been like team because yeah, Dominique is love you guys.

Yeah, and so Dominique like was like full board defense in this.

Again, he was the only guy that we've had over had played in, so

Connor with you. So so mad.

It was it was great. It was a good group of guys.

All right, so let's talk about what are you what are you doing

now? In horse racing.

David's trying to give a given update what you're doing before

we before and after basketball practice.

Yeah. So about a year, nagashima year

ago, January to horse racing Nation, I had my own website.

It was called the Horse Camp 4.com.

I went by patting, friends on Twitter, horse racing Nation

called me and DeRosa who used to work at Churchill Downs.

Got to know him and he was like, do you want to come work for?

Uh so I moved over to horse racing Nation about January of

last year and I basically do tip sheets for my know, everybody

loves the word tip sheets that do that.

And then I do some podcasts with them and some videos for me and

how to do it Daily Dish once a week.

But mainly, I just took my tip she'd company to them because

they Char and such as a wider base that I was covering.

It's been really, it's been fun. Actually, it's been good.

Yeah yeah, deals wrong flattered but that's all right.

You know once every five weeks so it's not that bad.

Well that's not bad. Does he let you say anything or

is he just taught the entire town?

It depends what we're talking about.

If he really likes the subject, I don't get many words out.

That sounds about, right? That is right, so that's my,

that's my profession, I guess in or and then my daddy, we've on

tour, he's on torches. So we have a little DC.

So we do all that. Yeah, because I know you're in

heaven, in The Syndicate to you manage your, you still managed

to syndicate? We just, we just had a

two-year-old, one twice R and S both times.

We just probably sold them. So it's a little sad, but I'm

gonna keep following them. And then we have a couple horses

with we're Norman Cassie. So a couple were so great horses

and got rid of our two-year-old but you know, the business is

going to do it sometimes. Yeah, I mean, I that's where I

remember, I can't remember which Derby horse that Norm, had that

you guys were all over the backside that year and plus you.

Yeah, yep. That's right.

Yeah, that was actually the artwork for know.

I work. For I did my internship with

Louisville for my sports Administration with Norman that

summer and that was the year they attempt in classic Empire,

pretty city dancer World approval.

I mean, my whole body. Catch a glimpse of alarm was

like, great, like great 2017, and the northern wind, and

started his own Barn, right? The year after that, is that

right? Was it that next year, that he

went on to do that or was it? Yeah, 20.

Yeah. It was about.

Yeah, I was rapping. That's what years later.

Yeah. And the summer.

Yeah. How do you hooked up with those

guys? How'd you get hooked with Mark,

honestly? I think me and Norman literally,

I think, I don't know that I should know this story but I

think I do, I barely even know Mark.

But I we started talking on Twitter about something and then

we just and then I one day, I was like, I got this internship,

I don't like horse racing and sports away so I hit him up.

I was like, hey, can I come, you know, work for you for the

summer? And that's kind of how it hit

off. And now we're really close and

he trained to my dad and his buddies horses.

So yeah, it's been a good friendship.

Yeah. No.

I'm actually came on when we were doing Camera pose the for

the Preakness or whatever. I know it's back in the XV.

W days. Louis, were you on?

You are not with that. It was before your time that's

before my time. Yeah, the normal is kind of like

one of the first kind of major trainer names that we had that

came on. So I think Norm is the new.

What? Dale Romans was 56 years ago

with two year olds. I think he's that good for sure.

Yeah, very good. Yeah, he's right here.

Best two-year-old actually running.

Well, I shouldn't say best one that's ran so far.

It's running on Saturday and the 6 race.

So, yeah. Okay.

All right. Louis, I'm let you, I've never

let you go this long without asking questions.

Oh, no, I'm good. Let's, let's let's get a cab,

man. I'm excited.

Are you ready, handicap? Yeah.

Oh, well, let's get a little update them on.

Let's hear about, well, this North Oldham basketball team.

How good are you? It's a huge deal, man.

Yeah, this is the first time that why went to North Oldham.

So I've been in Northern was only 22 years old, 21 years old,

right? So, I've been North, although my

whole life we made state tournament last year for the

first time in school, History, we did not lose one single

player that was in the top eight.

So we have everybody coming back, so it's exciting.

You know, everybody's gotten bigger stronger, mean we have a

really, really good senior class.

So it should hopefully be another fun here.

I'm looking forward to our first games and 11 days now, 12 days

against manual. So now, you know how you balance

of all because I mean I did that high school basketball gig for a

while and to do that and then do all the other stuff it's not

easy. I mean people do it has a good

team. Yes they got that's right I did

not so they they don't understand how How many hours

these coaches put in those pretty dangerous so I joke but

you're right. Yes it's and is they don't get

paid hardly anything either. You know.

Now that's so now but I don't work.

I'm not a teacher so it I'm not in the building.

I can't imagine being a teacher and then being a bag.

I mean, most people are teachers, but that's right.

Yeah, it's a lot hours. It's a lot of things you have to

do. A lot of things.

You would never expect your people live, like no clue, the

random paperwork and all this stuff.

You have to do to all the fun of you for the khsaa, which is like

just, yeah, like there's nothing wrong with 14 videos.

You're 46 hours about things from 1985.

That's what the cage with it. Shoved down your throat and it's

pageant still coaching with you or not.

It is yep. That's exactly why you're

helping me. So it's been good.

Yeah, man. All right, division.

One head coach on your bench, look okay?

Yes. Yeah.

All right. Well, it's getting that some

handicap and of course, our handicapping section is

sponsored by green, sheets until David sponsors are handicapping

sets, right? You know, they should have said

me regardless, for just for this episode, you know, we could have

done that. You know what you should do is,

you should check out David's picks and you should check out

green shoots picks and you always say that get as much

information as much in Focus. That's right.

Don't don't look at Louise picks and you're gonna be all right,

like it Lewis picks for 75% of races head with a gun.

All right, so we're going to start off with race eight, which

is the start of the pig for is a maiden special weight,

six-and-a-half, furlongs on the dirt for two-year-olds 120,000

dollars here. Louis, who you like in this

race, man. This felt a little open to me

and I think you have Kind of make a decision here.

Do you think the first timers have a shot, or is it a horse

that has a couple of runs in it? That can get it done?

You know, I know the favorite here is communication, memo.

The second favorite is Carcano the 7 and the 5.

They both have two races under their belts for as this is a

race for two-year-old. For the boys on the boys side,

the open side, man. I landed though.

I think Corona Bolt the first timer for for Brad Cox, has a

serious shot here has been training.

Well, Brad Cox obviously doesn't need any introduction on this

show. His first time starter stats and

a two-year-old stats or both. Outstanding even floor, all

hitting it 24%, recently at Churchill Downs, as well.

I also like another first-timer under Luis saez, for Paulo Lobo,

the three event detail horse, you know, Pablo will actually

hits with a very reasonable record of 39, starters at 18%,

with first time starters, he said to get 21 percent this

year. He's not running it at crap

tracks either. I mean he's going up against the

very best this is six hundred thousand dollar purchase for for

Oxo equine. And so I think this is a serious

horse that they think has a serious shot.

And that's why they booked Luis saez for the spot.

Tied to one is an unbelievable number on a horse like that.

I do think you have to include the 5 and the 7 here because of

their experience Vicki Oliver's having a really, really, really

fine year. She's a really good trainer and

I think she's got a really serious shot here with Rafa

bejarano. And then I went outside to the

Pletcher trainee, that's a Shadwell homebred in muta weed,

who's the son of quality Road and and just, I mean, between

all of the numbers and all those things, he does actually pick

Ricardo for some interesting spots there. 34, their last 12

or so. Two for the last 12 all

together. They don't really get together

too often. But as first-timer numbers are

around 17%, I think you could use up to five horses here but

in order I landed 2 3, 5 7 and 11 Ricardo still struggling a

little bit. 17 starts only one win at Churchill Downs you know

got we better Mountain. He's usually getting into

pictures Ricardo. Six seconds.

Is it indicates that he's actually writing well it just

hasn't happened. Yeah we're part of got back in

the ask me some Barn a little bit too so she'll stop sir.

About going in Oak, Lawn. I'm sure.

All right. David, what do you think about

this race? I, you know, I agree with

everything you said. If you look at the two and the

three, it's I look at pedigrees first and try to go from there.

And these kind of racing think he said the three cost, six

hundred thousand, but then you look at the pedigree pedigree,

it's altar. So it's kind of a hard read is,

I mean, she must be trained well enough.

But Churchill Downs doesn't have a Turf course right now, so I

don't have to start to get it ready for Gulf Stream because

when I mean gosh I'm sure you guys have seen the fairground

situation. The turf course, they don't have

one either the moment. So I don't know if some of these

guys like the three horse of in Detail, trying to get a start

and then get a race in and Gulfstream on the turf.

Same with the to that they're the dam of Corona fold for Brad.

Cox was mostly turkey as well, but he has by both Euro and they

paid 225 thousand four. So you know, it's ten times to

sired fee. You know, the pleasure or smooth

tile, we need the mama that horse was a Stakes Winner for

Karen McLaughlin. Sprinting, on the dirt.

My only negative about this is, I don't know if this is my head

or not. I feel like Todd Pletcher sins,

like the horses that Churchill that, he's never even seen

before it. You know, he's the theatre, he

didn't want to raise today with hire me, Pioneer houdina, but

this horse has the best pedigree in the race.

It's just going to be interesting to see how much

action, she he takes on the toe board because I think Pletcher

in the spring meet was one for something after after the Derby

after Derby weekend, when he takes most of the big guns out.

So, that's what if my horse should need to watch best PG,

the race. I did land on the horse, that

started Carcano the He Oliver, he has not had good trips and I

don't know if it's because he doesn't get out of the gate

quickly or bear on. Oh, just, I mean, he has been,

he makes very premature moves in his first two races.

So I'm gonna give him one more chance.

But I would watch the board in this race, especially with the

cocks horse. Because if that cocks horse is

BET heavily, that horse is probably the one you want, if

that's. And that's a good thing about

betting, a pig for. You can see what the board says.

It's you know, they didn't stick this race, it race 9, and it's

hidden. So, I would probably, I would

probably go 52 in here and then I think I'm not saying the three

can't run but I feel like it's a start to get her on the turf at

Gulfstream or he's sorry. John Julie we didn't say

anything about the fairgrounds Turf that was all David Loach or

just I don't want to fight you. I just wonder where I didn't

like spoiled. Streak.

When he's having a day that's average.

We never wanted. That is horse racing.

Happy. His dad works for a freaking.

I don't think it actually drink whatever he wants.

That's right. Yeah they look at.

So we're for southern. I don't.

I I do not like bourbon at all. I hope you hope you guys are

like swans. I just not my not my thing

either. Yeah.

So you're drinking that when I came on.

I don't know. What are you drinking?

So Cooper's craft is hanging out with us tonight.

The hunter proof, make it just down the street here.

But yeah, well you're good, we're to each their own Show.

So don't worry about it, you're good.

Yeah and I use that my dad's been in the licorice your whole

life. We don't, we just, I don't know.

We just never really. I never really sip on anything.

I got to be like a bar or something, or out to really

drink. I'm not really a, you know, it's

just not my thing. I'm not a big burden guy though

and I don't want to sip on bike. I'm not going to sit like a

martini, why get on a podcast? So alright if it's fair you a

beer at a tailgate guy, anything like that.

It's okay. Okay.

Okay. You're coaching and you're so

visible. Sometimes it's not, you know, I

remember being at the Chow wagon and getting a beer and looking

over in there was like a couple of kids at the school where I

was coaching that, and I was like, I just didn't feel right?

Yes, know, I can. But believe me when I started

coaching, I'm really not that. I was some wild man, before I

started coaching. But, you know, you just think

about things. You were never really think

about before they become your one, in your county, like Oldham

County were basketballs important.

I mean, people know who you are. I mean, you're being watched,

you're always being watched. I mean, they're like, there's

David Lebovitz, you just Well yeah, that doesn't happen.

Very often anymore who are slow? Watch that mouth.

All right. Race 9 which is an allowance

optional clean race. It has a mile in a 16th on the

turf. We are getting at least they're

going to race on some of the turf here, right.

Louis bothered possibly. That's right.

This race again. Lou, you and I were talking

about earlier, 80,000 are claiming prices for any horse

that stuff for the claim, 134,000 a, Phillies Reels and

up, you've got a handicap, it both ways.

You got a handicapped, it like, interface and monitor face.

So yeah, that's exactly what I was just going to say with

David. I'm sure when you look at these

races right now with Churchill, especially with a high of 40,

maybe on Saturday, something like that, there's an excuse to

take this off the turf. I think there's two ways you

have to, you have to handicapped it.

There's a reason there's for mto's in this race and for me, I

think you pick for Turf horses, you pick for MTO horses,

whichever ticket, you have to play, that's what you play.

I think one of the interesting things is that I think Chris

Hartman snuck in MTO horse in here, under the guise of a turf

wars of the five, Misty Veil, who's 12 to 1 and that horse has

won four times over fast. Go on Dirt 3, seconds and a

third hasn't want to Churchill Downs, over the dirt.

But I'm not going to hold that against the horse.

I just, I think that that's this was a very intentional move by

him to have this horse in the field.

So if they do, go off the turf, watch for a non MTO.

The five to be a huge part of this, but I do think there's

some other horses if Stay on the grass that you have to watch.

I'm kind of outside in this race.

The 8 10 and 9, so Baristas in this race.

Really liked this horse came off a layoff last time out in almost

one in the high-level allow its company at Keeneland lost by two

fancy Martini, by less than a length without a biscuit.

So bored picks up Ryan Hernandez Junior here to me.

That's that's a good sign. Coming off, the layoff comes

back, second off a layoff here. I know the stats don't play off

her trainer James Baker, but I think that that's still a good

angle here. I do think Steve asmussen has

Fairchild the 10 here in a good spot with The italic I found,

um, this is the kind of race that he just wins at Churchill

in these kinds of meats where he just positions his horse in the

right place. Even from that outside.

Post is a ballast. Runner good early, decent early

speed, decent late speed is going to be part of that

mid-pack. Sort of run will have a kick at

the end to finish it off as well and I think a horse that's

coming out of graded Stakes company that's going to try a

longer distance here. For Joe Sharp is the nine dream

worker Luis saez in the mount. If you're getting tired of me

talking about Luis saez. I just, I think once in a while

we forget how much of A wild card.

He is at at Churchill Downs. He's getting out of the one-mile

sort of think it's a little bit more distance here.

If you watch how his race has progressed, he goes to more the

back of the field to the front losses by a half-length in the

Horseshoe 33 back goes to Canterbury finishes fifth, but

by two lengths, was the ninth in that race at the at the at the,

for a long pole before that runs a Kentucky Downs and you can

take a ducky that was for whatever you want, but it's not

Turf racing, its metal racing to me and then the final course I

would include on the turf is the six.

Which is Calvi. Thank you, sir, Frenchy and Brad

Cox? Yeah, there you go.

Yeah, so you go. Go ahead.

Yeah, coming on, it's coming on a list of six company seems to

fit here when I look at church, I don't even die.

Go back, I Go reverse now I see a church with her face.

I go to the dirt first because it's just they like you said,

the weather is going to be what 35 40 on Saturday.

So there's no rain in the forecast but it's really hard.

I guess tomorrow will be a good gauge of lie, beyond the third

5, 16 17 and 15. If they're on the dirt, that's

where it was headed that way. Yeah, so know if they are on the

turf, I have to go back to the torch roughly Diamond.

If you wanted, this is the race at Keeneland where horses got

out of it, cause it was a huge Chaos on the turn.

So if you just throw out his last race and it was El Pollo to

have to, I mean yeah yeah yeah that's what that's my only issue

is. I don't know if this is the

distance he really pray. He does he did when it sunk but

it look like he was really gonna Relish the longer distance but

I'm gonna give him one more chance or her one more chance.

Sorry, because I mean that last race, the Fairchild got a little

quirky on the turn, the ten horse and it just cause like a

big chain reaction and the torch just got taken away out of the

race. So I'm just a study 3/8.

Just I'm gonna give that horse another chance.

I agree with you on call D. I just don't know if this is a

back to the preps, I don't know if this is a prep for Turf way

or not because their last work was a Turfway.

Interval is right around the corner, she is graded, Stakes

plays nice fellow. He has speed, you can't leave

out like Brad Cox inform Drew, it's called.

He could be another horse that stays on.

If it goes to the dirt as well, right?

Yeah, I agree with that and you know it's fun.

I bet Misty Veil last weekend in the claiming crown or in my

Exotics and she didn't return. Okay.

With that was an ugly day outside and that was the

sloppiest of sloppy and it was cold so I guess Hartman did

Route wheeler right back a week later that in mind that it could

come off. What's your general take on that

David? It does that does that encourage

you that the trainer thinks they're in good form or is that

just taking another shot? There's you know, a slot to be

filled in a race. Well when you're right at

Churchill Downs in the purses 134,000 for an allowance race

and you know, it might come off and you can be one of seven

horses in the race and you just want the data's going, the horse

for eighty thousand dollars, that is made 30,000 right on

that same place, you know, kind of strike while the iron's hot

in a way, if you're going to be the third choice in a seven

horse race a week later you kind of almost gotta run.

I mean I don't blame I don't know if she'll even run if it's

on the turf because she's ran one Turf race and it was not

it's not even on my page. So I don't I agree to this might

be just an empty old play. I think it's a general body in

the body of the field and he ran a week later and say, you know,

I'm a scratch. If it's not on the turf, if it's

run on the turf. So, you know, I don't mind

horses running back, seven days later.

And then there's one other horse in this race.

I don't know what, what her excuse was the last time out,

but justify my love with, not very good.

She comes out of the Barista race and give her one more

chance She's going to need patient's, know really speed.

But so if I was picking here on the turf, I would go to 648.

I'm going to give roughly Diamond one more chance.

Not going to, you know, excuse the last race with all the

trouble in the turn. If I was on the dirt, I like you

Leo gamma that 16 horse with a little 17, Jaguar was a part of

the worst, EQ and history. Last time he took me, right?

But it was not her fault that stewards.

Put her up, put her fingers are improving.

So, yeah, I would go 1617 with Misty Balin.

Word on the main track feels moved in it.

I don't know I guess we'll see you tomorrow if it's going to be

moved or not. Yeah well whether and I think

with the 17 for example never having you know gone the

distance I actually think that horse by breeding will be fine

going to turns yeah it's an inch he's got speed whatever hurt

Satterfield down. So here in front of Churchill,

it's a good thing, especially if it gets taken off.

We've seen get out front style for.

We saw the Hosier last weekend so it can only be the case if

hos, you're was the only ones with mine into.

If you it's easy to say after the race with them, Is Tudor

tortoises in the race? Yes, correct the Hoosier was the

second or horse and he paid not he was paid 1160 and they were

betting Turf forces. I was crazy value on a horse,

are we gonna move on to race 10, which is the main event.

It is the true looky and we do something here David where we

kind of we say this is a great three.

And so we basically say is it a great three years and not a

great three. And and my estimation, this is

not a great 3 and this is usually a great race.

This is the race to me that we're like last year we saw

obligatory Come in and win this race and then I did she go on to

win two great ones right after that or I mean we want to race

at Gulfstream and then she won the race on Oaks day this.

Yeah, so I mean I don't know if we got that here.

It feels like this feels way more like a listed Stakes field

to me, you know, I don't know what you think.

What you guys think of this field?

Yeah, it would. Well, I was talking to Ed to

Rose about this, at her. It feels like and are, these are

Phillies. But like, for the male version,

for example, everybody's retiring taking a break.

So, it's kind of one of those Those, you know, there's no

route like, you have the Pegasus and the January, you have the

Saudi cup and you have to buy for Phillies.

There's really not much going on for a while on the main track,

so like the mouth thought. So I know they all just ran, but

all those type quality horses. You kind of feel like there's

not really many left and training at the moment.

So, you know of last year, for example, the mod horse, it one

that was probably an exception of this race because it is a

great 3. So it's not like a bunch of

great one horses to go on and we great ones are running in this

race or they would upgrade it. So yeah, if you look at the

program, I would say it's great three, maybe four, Melissa, s my

opinion. I'm gonna go grade 3 - only

because you have coaches want to listed Stakes Mariah's.

Princesses want to get listed Stakes there, I was a great

three winner but that was sprinting, but heshes a great

through winter, who is that? The three horse Sonakshi. 10.

You're right? Yeah, that's a good point.

Yep. But frankly, I mean this one

turn Mi so she can stretch it out at all.

I mean she could be in that you know that that type of spot.

It's not as though she has to go to turns here, Empire House 1 a

Listed Stakes out in Sacramento. That was sprinting.

I know, but you've got least got a couple of horses you know and

she can't sing as also want to listen steaks.

You've got horses in here who have at least one listed Stakes

were at least black-tie pointers.

So I'll go, great 3 - especially for the time of year and and the

restrictions on the race. So I kind of agree with David on

that one. Yeah, I mean, I think when you

look at the past winners, the booklet or anyone's last year,

finite the year before Pharaoh wins in 2011, coach wins here,

and then she goes on and does, what obligatory does is a

five-year? I guess it's, I guess it's

possible. Yeah, I'm saying any possible we

didn't know obligatory saying before this Last year, not the

way that I mean we know coach's name because the Oaks Trail for

example, right? And so I mean, I think there's a

chance that we see especially if like a Mariah's princess jumps

up and wins and it's impressive here.

I think that's a horse as a five-year-old because she

started so late her career. That actually could be really

impressive going forward. I'm going to take, I'm going to

take a shot on Liberty MD by the way who fortify The Churchill

and that's right. 141 the distance that would be my little

bit of a Long play here with Liberty.

MD in WorkSource Louis, who do you like here?

I think you have a choice here. I think you either really spread

here or you go really skinny here.

I'm gonna go skinny, I'm going to trust that coach and

Mariah's. Princess are this other the

class of this race. I think I don't have to explain

coach. I think we all know who she is

and where she's from and who trains are and all that stuff.

Mariah's princess a second off the layoffs here.

And last time I'll she ran in a hundred thousand dollar

optional, claimer not available for claim at Keeneland at a mile

and a sixteenth losses by a couple of lengths of Martin

Garcia before that, though, when's it a mile and a 16th at

Oakland Park before that, though.

Run rent on an allowance at seven.

Furlongs high level allows Churchill Downs.

Open links winner, six and a quarter.

She's going that one. Turn at Churchill again.

So I'm hoping she'll read claim that sort of form.

I just, I love that she took that long layoff came back at

Keeneland and kicked off the rust immediately.

She looked really good last time out.

So I'm going to pull, I'm gonna hold my nose and just play the

one into here and try to get value because I naught value,

try to find Value in other spots in this longer ticket because I

do think. I don't think Liberty, imd's

about pick here. Mike, for example, I think she's

really, she's really capable. I want to, I want to trust, she

can't sing. And I want to trust that Chris

block Turf, the dirt at 24%, but I don't for some reason.

And, and so I'm gonna, I'm just gonna, I'm, like I said, I'm

gonna hold my nose. I'm going to bet the one and two

and just get away from this race as fast as I can.

Lily, by the way, what is your sequence in the Green Sheet?

This this week I did the late pick three but I did it for a

couple bucks. Okay Gretchen right.

All right. David who do you like here and

little? Well I agree with Lily I really

Rise princess in this race. Thank you.

Yes. Good because I mean coach has a

nice Philly and I'm sure people under 20,000 but I don't really

know how good she is and she's gonna get super over bed in this

room with that to. Yes, I'm going to five the

horse. She lost two wives time out one

of the stakes race at Aqueduct internet start.

So she's a nice Philly. So it was a good race of the

layoffs but I'm with you on the one.

Turn for my ice princess. I agree her race at Churchill

last year ago, was a big-time race going seven frog.

Now she gets back to the Mazda3 Spa.

I'll be going to be the speed in here sooner, I'll but more ice

princess will not be far off. So I think she can just really

tuck in right behind Center Island here and get first run

coaches on The Rail. So it's me interesting where

Ricardo does, I doubt they dead center with center aisle, so

he'll probably also said in the pocket, but I just like the

position rise. Princess is going to be sitting

cutting back to the one turn after her good race going about

60. But if you watch average you can

visually tell she got tired. And the Phil Bauer I mean

Phillip Bauer had a huge share of toga was six wins.

He's got he won a big say Race with Joelle and this September

meat that's escaping me now. So he's got a really you know

he's got a good horses on the come up and this horse looks

Prime s. Also lay off.

And I actually had Liberty and be second, I was going to plan

exactly what the to and Liberty MD.

I'm not against coach, but she's just going to be over better.

You're going to get value. You got to go against her.

Yeah. And I'm not gonna like Paul

Sarah pic for pic 5, but it straight out.

I'm going to use the to in the M7 in here, Liberty MD, it was,

it was kind of a shocking thing. Just a casual observation that

Lou and I were making at the bar.

Our scope is like the the Triple Crown races are so observed

here. Like there was some horses that

were going off at some odds and the the Breeders Cup that never

should have been at those odds because the exact you're not,

you're exactly right the people because you got to think about

when you go like to Saratoga, the breeder separate races like

that. There's so many General fans

there that don't bet fear around, leave you bet Aqueduct

on a Thursday. Those are like the real players

in the game. Absolutely.

For the money smarter in those kind of races.

Yeah. When you go to like, Rich

strike. For example, he was, I think he

was a shorter price in Olympiad in the classic.

Yeah, we talked about that at not, like yeah.

Is that was my, that was my exact to play by the way behind

fly line while the yeah and they'll get Lippy.

I was, I didn't bet that race. Super tight, super pricey was,

for example, everybody Rich striking, because he's coming

out of the Derby olympiads. Away, better horse and Rich

strike is and he had a way better setup than Rich trying to

well projected. So, yeah, I agree with you.

I do think, you know, they're going to see coach.

They're going to see Kentucky Oaks the fantasy and All those

back races to social, probably accounts for sure.

Yeah, yeah. Just it's and I mean to that

point like it was even surprising how many people had

not really seen Flightline run before like had no idea how good

what I really was, what's that? Yeah, run very much now, that's

true. I mean, but I want to say, by

the way, if you're listening and you thought you heard something

different from David and me on the last race, we're not

different. It's David's talking about how

do you maximize the individual race for value?

And that would be to leave coach out of the top two spots in an

For example, but what he's saying is in a fight, pick five.

Pick for whatever you're playing, you have to include

that horse because if she wins, you're gonna go.

Yeah. Of course you want them and

she's classy. She's classy this in this

company and so we said the same thing but I with you I think

we're as Princess is a major threat here.

Yeah. And Coach, I'm not really, I

mean, she's got some good races and figures but she was she was

running at Oaklawn me. She's beating horses that were

just okay, and I think I've heard other than her husband

Horses against that field at Keeneland is an impressive race

for sure. Yeah, so I'm gonna go ahead and

go to to here for some value with liberty and D.

Are you all surprised at the lack of lack of mile distance

experience in this race because it's a pretty common distance,

you know? So we've talked about this on

the show. Mike the mile is so different

track to track, right? Yes, exactly.

Well, you're used to that one turn mile.

If you're a Churchill, you're used to it.

But if you race anywhere else, usually, it's two turns.

And and that's, you know, I think people look at that, that

one, turn mile at Churchill as something, they're able to pick

off if they have a good seven for a long horse.

I think that's a reasonable way to think about it, by the way.

And so it just it it entices, those six Furlong seven,

furlongs sprinters. Who just need to wait a little

bit longer for their major kick too.

Again, and so I'm not surprised by that.

Because if I had a great 74, a long Philly or mayor, I would

run her in this race to me. That's not a question.

All right, let's move on to raise 11 which is an allowance

rates that is a mile and a quarter on the Dirt 3 year olds

and up hundred twenty seven thousand dollar purse.

I love that. We have 110 miles along, let's

go. Yeah.

Well that's fantastic, right? I mean, it's absolutely perfect.

Alright, let's I'm gonna let David start here first.

Louis, good idea. All right, this is this is the

race for me. This is my Play of the pick for

sequencing. Hey I really like The Ninth Gate

runner in here. He did win an amount of quarter

to back at Churchill and if you watch his last race he looked

like he was kind of done in the lane and he just kept finding

more. It just will he just looks like

a horse at Once, Run 10 for a long and luckily Churchill

rights 127 thousand dollar allowance races for 10 for a

long. So he gets right back to the

track, where he had a smashing win.

He beat the five horse in this race who just want to empty.

I was in MTO last week. The one.

So he's got some good horses behind him.

I do not like the 3 horse in here.

Strong quality. I don't think he can get the

distance if he was going to win. It would have been to back at

Churchill. So, I think there's some value

on this race with gate Runner, the 8th War campaign.

His race to back was good. But man, that last race.

I don't know, he had a perfect, he had a good trip in there,

he's going to take money, he's got that smart that really good.

97. Beyer speed figure just hitting

you in the face on the page, if you're a buyer guy.

So he's going to take some money in there and I know it's Todd

Pletcher but I think a runner might be around 4 to 17 22

range. And he's going to be my key in

the late pick for sequence. I really liked this horse who

beautiful. I like that.

I think you use the 8 and the 9 and you kind of move on from

this race. I do think the work Campaigns

got a shot here, because what you talked about on that Bourbon

Trail, frankly? What's interesting to me?

David is in the St. Louis Derby.

For example, where he finished right behind Rattle and Roll in

by right behind. I mean, by open lengths, is that

he didn't have that distance. He only had the mile and a 16th

in that race. He comes back into my own 3:16

that the Preakness distance at Churchill Downs.

Runs a lot better, frankly losses by ahead in a blanket

finish with three horses there, with corollary we keep Corey

Landry here. I'm hoping that added distance

works for him here, but I'm with, I'm with him with him with

David. Thank you.

You don't have to go very deep in this field to find the very

best mile. And a quarter horses on the dirt

at church, I think you can use the 8 and the 9 to work and move

on. Well, the interesting thing is

the thing about the eight horses to it bothers me a little bit

that was kind of a blanket finish to back in the Bourbon

Trail is right and those blanket finishes are always kind of like

anybody really want to win the race.

The winner was a good horse over Brad.

Carter to do you like you said his best race by far as a

Marathon distance of my own 316? So maybe he's a horse to that

just wants them out. And of course, I just think Gabe

Runner off for some more value. And for I wrote, him is raised

to back. So it should be sending a good

spot early to be it to sometimes.

I don't know if you're like me. David.

You look at these races. You see a you see a horse like

were campaign runs wallet? My own 3/16?

Isn't that gig is in that blanket finish?

It turns into jockey for me where if Tyler was on this horse

that might be the horse. I'm leaning on frankly because

Tyler's the one that would get that horse up.

If it's like we're going to put that over.

And I go, he's going to break and he's going to go eat pasta

left and just sit there and hoping you guys yet.

It will take a look. He bounced off the rail and race

yesterday with a meet people or is he legit bounce off the real?

Travis even said in his column? So I think, you know, where the

way I think, you know, where later?

It's gone with it. All right.

Well, that David you want to prove yourself one more time so

people can find you, and yeah. So you can find me on horse

racing, nation.com under expert picks.

I do Aqueduct every day when they run, I don't Churchill

circuit or Kentucky sir. But whenever they're running

Churchill kilo every his church away now.

And then, you know, next winter, they had to Gulfstream for the

championship meet which looks like it's going to be kind of

back to the old days are only going for about three months

this year, instead of four months.

So nice. I'm looking forward to that

because Gulf Stream used to be a really, really, really good

track and they kind of got it, you know, ten races on a

Wednesday every week and they kind of got a little boring of a

product, which you claim or so, it looks like they're kind of

bring it back to kind of get back to the old ways.

So it should be a fun, winter. All right man, we really

appreciate you guys think. I do this real quick, I gotta

pull the There's there's David and the very classy days, right?

That's the only literally pick the worst picture and all.

It's the only one I could find the only.

That's a beautiful SEC haircut. You get over yourself, son.

Man, was it a game? I think we were there watching,

must have been it had to be a game.

I don't know why else we would have been in many high school.

I don't want to Wayne's was, was it a like a?

It was, I don't remember. I wonder if we went and like

watch Quentin Snider players from like that.

Maybe that's possible because Dwayne son played for manual to,

but that was so he was still two years below me so I don't.

Yeah, I wouldn't it. What it was was quite a good

basketball player from Schneider Great Heights together.

I believe it was a really good college player to like, people

take absolutely people people. Just now he was kind of an

underrated. Well, I think well, to your

point earlier, I mean, people don't realize like when you play

a Ballard and he was at the top of the scoring stuff like that.

And he was a pass first guy. I mean, he wasn't like he was a

ball hog and you know you got Allan Houston with her and

lament. I mean you got all these guys

want was a prodigy from the like when he was five years old.

Like everybody just knew he was going to play Louisville and be

like a really good player. It is good.

So that'll that'll do. It for this edition of the

horse-racing happier and less. Lou you got anything else to

add? And I mean, I don't know,