KY Derby 150 Preview – Hour 3

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Live from Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby 150, it's the

horse racing happy hour on ESPN 680 and one O 5 Seven.

Here are your hosts Louie Rabeau and Mike Endolfo.

All right. Welcome back.

We're at the top of 3/22 here. This is the horse racing happier

Mike Endolfo, Louie Rabeau and. Look, Producer Zach, Producer,

runner, Rich, we got producer Tanner coming back, Tanner's

coming and by the way, Tanner just crossing today, new the

trivia questions. So we go to the trivia question

for this 80 to one on Rich Strike two years ago we've had a

91 to one shot in the Kentucky Derby.

Tanner, who was that horse? That was Don Rail 90. 9:00 to.

One in 1913. Thirteen.

That's exactly very, very Back in the day I knew I thought it

was like 1950s. I was way off.

That was Thistle's fourth Derby. There it is.

That's the very top. Right there, all the top of the

second round. There you go.

How about? That I need you definitely know

I'm getting. Crushed in the DMS Now that you

talked about those cuffs. Hey, can you grab me one of

those? What do I look like?

I've already got the ones what? Do I look like a restaurant

service here? What are we doing?

That's right. That's right.

That's right. We're going to go back into our

handicapping right here as we we got 11 minutes until Race 6.

Real quick though, let's just remind people who we liked in

Race 6 so that we can get the picks that you get your pick in.

Yeah. So Dan and I were on the same

two horses 10/9 here. Vava and red carpet ready again.

Vava Probably the best sprinter overall in the group, but red

carpet ready 3 for three lifetime at Churchill.

Could be the horse for the course.

Could be horse for course. Long shot.

I like it here to hit the board has gone from 8:00 to 1:00 to

6:00 to 1:00. Here is 3 witches, not three.

The other itches. Word witches.

Witches. Witches 6 to one.

Right now I think has a real shot.

Ought to be part of that trifect, at least.

All right. The horses are coming onto the

track right now for that race. Race six will be starting in

about 10 minutes or so. We're going to do it, go though

to a race that we, we know what you love the American turf.

This, this race is super competitive this year, right.

It looks very, very strong. Race nine, Race 9. 3 year old

boys. We watched this yesterday with

the Edgewood on the girls side right?

Really great race. That was the one where I got the

really long, big, long shot. We're going to scratch the one.

OK scratch the one Twirly point and then we're also going to

the. Also Eligibles did not draw in

the 16 and 17 did not draw in. The 15 does draw in though.

However this is interesting to me Lily.

So I'm going to just set you up here this way.

I there's a lot of horses that's coming out of this Transylvania

right neat looks neats 1 pretty well.

A Gate Rd. decided to take a little route to the Gate Dr.

before figuring out was a turf. Horse.

I love that, by the way. Endlessly should be in this

race. Would endlessly be the favorite.

Yes, OK, yes. And I would single endlessly if

he were in this race. And a Gate Rd.

I. Think he's just a gamer?

And we'll talk about that later. I I don't.

I'm not really seeing why people love a Gate Rd. more than NEAT.

I don't. I have.

I have. I have.

I have neat second behind the five legend of time.

That's just Charlie Appleby and Frankie Dittori.

So I'm I'm. Ledge of time is the favor right

now by the. Way.

OK. I'm just trusting connections

for that race. I I'll be very honest.

I'm just trusting connections for that race.

Did run a maid on Last Out one the Jumeirah classic before that

Won the Jumeric Guineas before that won the Jumeric Guineas

trial. Before that Ran into grade 3IN

new market and then in Haydock 4 for five lifetime 3 for three.

This year we talked about on the Derby side Mike being undefeated

as a three-year old going into the Derby.

This is a horse coming into the American turf undefeated as a

three-year old Charlie Appleby seems to have figured out

whatever the travel thing is. So I'm not worried about that at

all. Picks up Frankie Dittori here.

I trust them. On top I have neat 2nd and the

reason is this. This horse is actually second

off the layoff now, so off the bench.

This horse won that Transylvania at a really nice price by the

way, 13 to one. We're going to get 6 to 1 here

because it's Ray, Lou Gutierrez and Rob Atris.

Look, we're looking at a horse that's probably going to be part

of the early pace. We watched that work yesterday.

Now it's not yielding today. I want to be clear, but it's not

exactly a firm turf course by any strategy.

So this. Is a horse that's going to be

able to get out front, Can he stay out front?

My guess is maybe and so I'll go 5-6 because I think the five

will be the best closer in this field.

The six will be the best front runner.

I got the 10:00 and 11:00. Next set is 10 to one for Jose

Ortiz for Mark Cassie, 2 for two lifetime coming in here didn't

run until his three-year old year.

This year at Gulfstream Park they started him going two

turns. So if you look at the form and

you see 7 1/2 for Luncie Gulfstream Park, you might

think, oh, that's a one turn turf race.

That's not the case. They start at the start line,

They end at that same line. That is 7 1/2 furlongs at that

course. So that's a full 2 turn race.

We're only going a little bit further than that in this race.

I think he'll be just fine doing that Son of Oscar performance.

I think he'll get the distance, no problem.

Cucina was right outside of him. The 11 horse was right behind me

in that Transylvania. We're getting a full 12:50 here,

but I get Javier Castellano with Shug.

That's what we're doing today. Let's take that kind of value.

So I'll land on those. I'll go 5610 and 11 in the

American turf. I gave a fifth horse with the

seven in the book with with Antonio Fresu because that's the

California speed in this race. I never know how the California

turf horses are going to show up here, but I I if I give out five

horses in a race Mike, that means I think it's a spread

race. This is a.

Tough one, but you talked about the connections.

I guess if you're going like a Gate Rd. you're going to love

IRAD on the turf, right? Right.

I mean that's one of the things and and listen that's a good.

So I'm trying to beat him. I want to be really.

I got Greens, by the way. I mean, I think you would want

to try to be in here, Quality Rd. sire, and we'll move on from

there. So now we're going to move to

Race 10, which is the Churchill Downs.

Is this, is this what Danielman said was his favorite race?

This was his favorite race. This is Zozos right here, right?

We got Zozos. It is Zozos.

Here and this was Louis Pick to be his best bet of the of the

African. It's way up there for me,

that's. Right.

But you know what's interesting? I have Gun Pilot second in this

race. So yes, I have 6 Zozos on top in

Race 10 is what you're talking about here in the Churchill's

town Great. 1. How much money, buddy?

How much money it is 1,000,000. Dollars.

So that doesn't suck. And Gun Pilot's the second horse

in this race. And in all of my tickets, I am.

I am. Absolutely, including him, even

though I did talk about if you think there's a horse you can

lean on to the sequence, it's probably Zozo's.

I would go to gun pilot though as my second choice here ran

second in that eclipse last time out is really consistent and

frankly seems to be improving in what we call the form cycle.

That was his third race, this will be his fourth.

Usually we see the best from a horse in his third race, but if

he maintains that speed, that 98 buyer from last time, Mike, that

might be a horse that we see go up the long shot here, or excuse

me, the wild card here. Part of me is hoist the gold 11

horse here coming back from the Arabian Peninsula.

I just told you, man, I I picked the horse yesterday.

I said, look, I think they just need that first race back from

the Arabian Peninsula state side.

Does hoist the gold need one race here?

I don't know, but I think you'd be a fool that not including the

new tickets. So those of course trained by

Brad Cox, ridden by 4 inch row, and then gun pilots trained by

Steve as mustard. And by the way, it needs to be

said as mustard specialty to us is this six to seven furlong on

the dirt kind of Sprint. That's what he does best.

And so if you need to ask, must I need a good price for sure.

A horse in here that's a total wild card that could blow up the

day I think his race came. The one.

All right. I love that horse.

I think it's seven. No furlongs.

He's really good. Two for four lifetime.

He hasn't shown up in the big, big stage of Churchill Downs

yet. Oh boy.

I think he's a horse. Going forward, then, we're going

to have to deal with it 6. And seven, four.

We're going to scratch the three horse out of race 10, by the

way. We're going to scratch the three

other names that people might recognize.

Mr. Wireless isn't. There, Mr. Wireless, here,

Tejano Twist also right. You know in here we talked about

all the time, even 3 technique. Honestly, there's there's horses

in here that you're going to recognize the names if you've

been following the sport and we want you to follow the sport,

right? We want you to fall in love with

these undercard races just because.

By the way, the great thing about horse racing is everything

happens on Saturdays. We don't have to spend the whole

week watching like the best races are on Saturday.

So just get, you know, you can get into the pattern.

Hey, it's the afternoon. What are the races we're talking

about this weekend? Where are they?

Are they in Tampa? Are they in Baltimore?

Are they in New York? Where are they?

Let's figure that out. Yeah, it's fun thing about

sport. All right, this is typically the

best race of the day, no? Question.

We're going to move on to the old Forrester Turf Classic,

which is Race 11. In Race 11, we're going to

scratch the nine and never explain.

That's the only scratch in that race.

Louis, is this live up to that? Is this one of the best races of

the day? It's a It's telling how much of

A grade one this is That never explained.

Just won a Grade 3 and was going to be 15 to 1 for sure.

How about that? That's the kind of giveaway that

I really love about these kinds of races.

Yeah, it really sets up to be a great race when you can get a

horse like Cellist who's 2 for five lifetime at very high level

stakes at Churchill Downs for 12:00 to 1:00 in the morning

line with Luis freaking Saez. That's a great one.

All right. So who's your picking this one?

Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm copping out again.

I'm going to Charlie Appleby the 11 horse here on the outside.

Naval power because this is the mile and an eighth turf turf

course here. My favorite route in in horse

racing. Start all the way on the left

there at the red at the red 8 pole there and then they run up

the chute here. I I just.

I absolutely adore it and and and naval power is coming in.

Got that first start. North America in the Maker's

Mark mile. He's going to get more distance

here. I think he needs more distance

and so he's going to get back to some of those better races that

we saw earlier in the year. Wanted a mile and an eighth

twice already in his career in the Arabian Peninsula and in

Britain so he's done them in both places.

So the weather isn't going to be a factor.

The surface isn't going to be a factor.

Naval power the 11 on top for me.

I'm very busy as the 6th. I write Ortiz, Chad Brown.

We watched a horse yesterday. It overcharged come up here from

that turf course in the in fairgrounds and I said, man, I

don't know if I trust those buyer figures.

This is another horse that ran last out at fairgrounds in that

Muniz memorial. One O 3 speed figure, one for

fun frankly ahead of Gigante which is a nice horse. 3 1/2

lengths is a lot 3 to 3/4 hex and so can he keep that up

thing? I'm interested in the reason I

put him second. Can't run with Lasix here.

He's on Lasix last time. So the medication has changed.

That preparation has changed. But look people it's Chad Brown.

What are we doing here? It's Chad and I ran on the

grass. I definitely think he's got a

serious shot here man. I'm I I then moved down to

program trading. He's the five here nine to two.

Flavian Pratt ran in that Hollywood Derby.

Last out out at at Delmar. Before that ran in Virginia.

Before that ran in New York State.

Before that ran on Long Island. Before that ran in New Jersey.

Chad Brown moves his very best horses around.

I think he's tipping his hand a little bit here that he really

likes this horse. He flies Flavia to wherever this

horse is, regardless of the grade of the race.

I've got program trading third in my handicapping and then in

4th I have the horse that won the American turf last year.

His name is Webslinger. Webslinger.

So it's not. It's not may the the spider man,

it's May the. May the what The 4th?

The 4th today, right. May the fourth be with you.

So we're going to go spider Man on a on a on a Star Wars day 4th

is that OK? OK, all right.

How about that? So we'll go web Slinger.

The 4th spot here. He's coming out of the same

Muniz that that web Slinger is coming out of did run on Lasix,

but he's done all of his best running without Lasix.

So it gets back to that. Hopefully here 2 for two

lifetime at Churchill Downs. Maybe we just recapture.

The magical web Slinger. How about that?

We have done the entire undercard now.

We did it, man. We got it.

We got it all in. They're they're a couple of

minutes away from. The start of racing tape, we got

it all. In we got it All in all right.

Tanner smiling. I know he's.

Smiling. It's all right.

He's he's playing with this mustache, smiling at you, saying

we got it all in, Yeah. Let's go ahead and let's get

back to this Derby field. We got about nine more horses to

go through. We'll get a couple of them in

right now and then we'll get the rest of the field in, in the

last second, get it all in, get it all in.

This is a horse that you think that could dramatically impact

the race. Oh, I think he's going to be a

huge part of the Kentucky Derby. This is number 12 track Phantom,

trained by Steve as and ridden by Joel Rosario, has won one

time in 2024 and it's actually not lightly raced. 7 starts hit

the board. Six of those won, three of them.

What do you think about track? Family.

Very easy to be positive about this horse and here's why.

Like you mentioned, he's already won this year.

Frankly, won the Gun Runner before that, late December.

Around Christmas, right Gun Runner in the comp.

If we start like December 20th to now, this horse has won

twice. He's finished second in the

fourth place, finished by 2 1/2 lengths.

It ain't like he's exactly like off the track or anything.

He's always part of the equation.

Right now, that was at a mile and an eighth, and he was fading

in that race. He got passed by both Catching

Freedom and Anna Marie, and in fact he got passed by a horse

named Tuscan Gold. Like, tell me everything you

know about Tuscan Gold. I just did.

OK, there it is. So that's, that's what I

concerned about with him. But he's going to need the lead.

He's that kind of horse. He's got to be out front.

The worst he's been in any race is second before he finishes at

the finish line in fourth. In one race he's always in the

front of the pack. This is the Kentucky Derby.

We always say, oh, there's no pace this year and we lie to

ourselves. I don't know why we do it.

I'm not doing it this year. There's massive pace in this

race. Track fan is going to be part of

it. He's going to want the lead door

knocks in the one. He's going to want to not be

stuck on the rail. He's going to go.

You got two horses that are going to meet up on the front.

Fiercest is just outside of him. I think you're going to have

three horses. I think the half mile mark my

words 46.6. I'll go under, OK.

Wow. OK wow.

That's really fast. 46 Six is not sustainable in the Kentucky

Derby, and so I think track Phantom's out for me.

But you know, I do wonder, in this case, which race is this?

Race 66 OK, Lava is in the 10 at the top stretch.

That's our pick. You can see what happens here.

Volvo is looking strong. Let's go.

We're going to have a good finish.

Here. Good finish here.

So 10. And seven out.

Of the star. Where's red carpet?

How's she doing today? The Force.

Flying. The force flying.

But it is looks like it is going to be on top again.

Another on top winner in the book.

Good to go there. Listen, I hope that the pretty

young lady next week bet that, because that's why I told her to

bet. Did you?

Did you bet it? Did you bet that?

No, what are we doing? Told her to bet it.

That is terrible for live radio. Oh man.

There it was. All right.

Oh, yeah. Baba wins with another gold

book. Hits again, man.

That's right. Top three in the top two there.

There you go. All right, so.

Or did we have to try? Did the 9 get up?

Yeah, for sure. Yeah.

Yeah. Oh no, no, I know.

Baba hits again there. So did turn the tables.

And actually, you know what we should give.

Yeah, we. So he just played it.

We should give Dan, Dan Thistle credit.

He said. He's she's going to turn the

table today. He was totally right.

All right. Another track, Phantom.

Yeah, I just. I think he wears himself up

because I think that pace gets heavy and.

We're not. We're talking about impacting

the race because of that early pace.

Yes, the same way that Summers is tomorrow did when or with

with rich strike. Yeah, Sierra Leone wants Track

Phantom to go as fast as he possibly can go and go.

And go great play by. You and Sierra Leone wins.

They should send a portion of the of the.

Summer tomorrow should get a check for the Red Strike folks

who totally agree with you. Yeah.

West Saratoga is the 13. This is another horse that, I

mean, we fell in love with this horse.

This is the only Gray in the field.

Actually, we've got almost all bays except for one chestnut and

1 Gray. Gray does nothing for me, but I

fell in love with the connections for sure.

But the connections we definitely did from the owner

who we got to have a fan out. The owner was a fan, a fan of a

friend of Thistle. 'S by the way, Issel said.

He looked terrible. I didn't like.

I'd appreciate that. Oh yeah.

Thistle was like, he looked because we were like, wow,

you're in your 70s. You look great.

And Dan's like, wow, he really aged.

And I'm like, who are you? Who are you?

Dan Issel. He looks you're talking about.

Yeah. Right.

Thank you. Yes.

Thank you. I mean that's.

Our guy. There will be no bigger cheering

session for Sarah Togo. If they win, then what's going

to happen up here? They were awesome on the

backside. They have a weird confidence

about them too, don't they Really?

They really do. They're very comfortable with

this. I wonder how much, though.

Mike is just house money. They bought the horse for 11

grand. He's already won a graded stakes

in the Iroquois. Like they they really think that

they're just sitting on, they're sitting on the House money here.

They ran him at Jeff Ruby Stakes and he did that.

He did what he was supposed to do under Haser's custom on yeah,

essentially there. By the way, I have AI have a

text from my priest. Let me find it.

He's picking this horse and he's got a reason.

Let me see if I can find it. There it is.

Derby pick #13, the Gray horse and Jesus is the jockey.

That's a sure bet. 50 to one. I think you'll get every bit of

that number. Two things happening in that

barn that I think are really substantial.

Larry Demerit battling cancer is still the friendliest, nicest

guy at this course. Marty Smith giving him a run for

his muddy frankly. But just smiling.

Every picture you see of him, he's got the same grin on his

face. It's intoxicating, frankly.

He's awesome. And then we meet, and then we

meet. Dante Lowry, West Virginia kid.

The most hair at the at this place right now.

Coquest is giant dreadlocks, the whole thing.

Exercise rider, assistant, trainer.

He does everything with. He walks him, does everything

with his horse when you see them.

He broke the horse. When you see him on the track

and you see that guy with the giant dreads, that's the pride

of West Virginia, man. And that's the pride of that

circuit. We talk about these regional

circuits. Dante is one of those guys.

They talked. They were.

From talking to Saffy Joseph Junior about dreaming to Dante

and dream. And they talked the same way.

Man, it was beautiful. So Dante Lowry, just a name to

remember from this Derby. One of those guys kind of off

the beaten path. If he's back here in five years

with a runner, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised.

He's willing to do the hours, he's willing to do the work.

He just needs the connections. That West Virginia riding

program was really one of the first ones that took advantage

of casino gaming. It really was.

And they just really they came on the they came on strong, man.

It was awesome. So W Saratoga there the 13 big

long shot doubt you know doubtful.

But they they I know they think they have a shot for sure.

So all right, we're going to move on to Louis pick.

We're going to move on to a horse that Louie's going to pick

to win the Derby that's never ran on dirt before the 14 horse.

Jeff Jeff, Ruby Stinks winner. I have to ask you a personal

question because it happened yesterday.

You weren't feeling great yesterday.

I think we could share this on the show.

By the way, you're loving the odds on the interview where it's

going right now. I think we can share this on the

air. You did the show and it was your

flu game. It was my I did my best.

It was your flu game. No.

You did a good job yesterday that I'm not criticizing or

making excuses for your your performance at all, but you

laughed when we got done. I paid for it last night, yeah.

OK, Danielman came on with us during the show and I said I

have endlessly on top And I said, do you want to crush me?

And what did he say? He said no, OK Was that the

worst part of your week? No, I'm your biggest

cheerleader, right? I have no idea, but I am.

I just really like this horse, man.

I love the late kick. I love that in the final

Fraction series on a slower surface than this, the horse got

up and ran great. 150 flat over that mile and an eighth, the

only horse that ran faster in 100 point prep was fierceness.

You know what? Only one you.

Know what you're getting right now in Ansley. 47 to 1. 48 to 1.

48 I'll take all of it. I feel.

Look, I don't. I don't know if he's going to

win. I want to be clear.

It's a damn Kentucky Derby. I feel like him about how I felt

about Sarah Gideon. OK, I want to be clear about.

That that's wrong. I do.

So we're talking W Saratoga's gone for 50 to 1 down to 23 to

one. He's great endlessly he's got,

that's true. And I think that's the play,

right? Endlessly.

He's gone from 30 to 1 to 48 to 1 and that's a winner of 100

point race. I mean, that's one thing.

Who, by the way? Who's by the way?

Last year the 100 point winner finished second in this race and

the year before the 3rd place finisher won the race.

OK, it just as we talk about the circuits changing and and the

the focus of horse racing moving to Kentucky.

I appreciate the the commissioner saying it's always

been here. That simply isn't the case.

It just isn't the case. The the stars of horse racing

used to be Los Angeles and New York.

It's not anymore. Keeneland's a star.

Churchill Downs is a star. Kentucky Downs in in horse

racing is a star. OK, that shift has started to

move the purses, Mike, when I moved here.

When I moved here. What, 15 years ago?

Well, I would, I would agree with that and that and that was

actually before they they knew they had to figure something

that was before historical cracks and they were losing stud

farms. They were losing all the the

things that really. The real economic drops?

That's right. And and they had to do something

that the historical racing. What I'm getting at is the new

turf. The new.

The new, of course. There has given us a top three

finisher, a top two finisher in the Derby two years in a row.

That's the new surface. Why would that stop now with a

horse that finished top three in the final fractions?

Theory. Why would that stop with a

horse? Who in his final workout here

went sub 48? He went sub 48 here on the dirt.

That's right. Why would that horse not be able

to get its on? I'll take a shot, dude.

I'd rather bet him at 47 to 1, The fierceness at 2 to one in

the 20 horse field. No question in my.

Mind. And by the way, if we can make

that case about Frankie Detroit, these European jockeys in big

fields, why can't I do that about about Umberto Riskley?

I think I can. Sure, you always want to bet on

the Italian. All right.

Another horse I like. Another horse that and actually

the final fractions loves too and you're going to get a good

price on domestic product that is.

By the way, the top three in that in that by the way, which

is the last 3/8 of a mile in the final prep race coming into the

Kentucky Derby. We're a domestic product

endlessly and catching freedom. Those three, I don't know if I'm

getting those last two in correct order but those two are

in the top three fiercest was like 6th which but he was under

the threshold. I'll pull it.

I'll put it up for. Winning, yeah.

Yeah. So domestic product, the 15,

Chad? Pull it up here and fit it in.

Trained by Chad Brown Irad Ortiz You're getting Chad Brown Irad

Ortiz right now at 29 to 1. Yeah.

OK. OK.

I think that's that's about right.

Tell me why domestic products didn't want to tell you, baby.

If the pace gets hot, he's another one of these horses

capable of finishing very quickly.

The final fractions talks about that right?

That's exactly what it's pointed toward in the Tampa Bay Derby.

He wins against. Look, is it a great field?

No, it's not. I I want to be very clear, But

he wins against a field that doesn't go very fast. 2551, one,

sixteen. He has no speed to run into.

No one's tiring out and he still overtakes those horses, wins in

a blanket finish and by the way in a finish where he had to be

between horses. It's not like he got outside of

the the 8th path or something. No, he was in between horses had

to make his own way. That's how he's going to win and

Irad's just going to bully his way to a Kentucky Derby win.

At some point that would be the case I would make look and it's

Chad Brown like you said the connections there that's that's

why he'll win the Kentucky. OK, in the final fractions

theory, we'll do this right now since we only got a couple

minutes and we got a trivia question.

This is not necessarily saying that you got to be at the top of

this, but it's just saying that you got a really good shot If

your last furlong is under 13 seconds and your last three

furlongs is under 38 seconds and we've got a boatload of horses,

Domestic product is on top of that list, catching freedom of

second, endless lease third. I beg still something.

My fault. Autumn Reese 4th Just Feel 5th,

Fierceness 6th, West Saratoga 7th, Forever Young 8th, Mystic

Dan 9th, Resilience 10th, Track Phantom 11th and Sierra Leone

12th. So those.

Would be the threshold, right? And capable of winning.

That's a huge number of. Do we have to get credit to run

flatter on this? Well, Jenny Reese, did the

theory, and that's from Horse Racing Nation, tell people No,

of course. Yeah, so Ron Fladder wrote the

article Jenny Reese. But listen, Ron and Jenny have

been awesome to us all week. Oh my God, actually that's not

unfair. Really.

For the last several years, Ron and Jenny have just been very

important. Jenny Reese is one of the

greatest helpers of my career that I've ever had.

Yeah, how about that? Right there.

We owe as much of Jenny as we do to EJ.

And so it's just incredible right there.

All right, You got a trivial question for us.

We do. Look, so who are the 2 jockeys

that have won the Derby five times?

We'll do that next. We talked about Rosie to Pravnik

yesterday, winning the Oaks twice.

Who are the two jockeys that have won the Kentucky Derby five

times? And of course thanking our

partners, I mentioned Jenny Reese and I got to mention the

folks over the Kentucky HP AKY hpa.com.

Get in today. All the articles, all the videos

from the backstretch that have been going on all week here at

Churchill Downs. Of course.

Our friend Brian Dettman 2TS1 end Brian Dettman injury lawyer

Go check him out online. Go find out how he can help you.

Maybe just a second look at something.

Something doesn't seem right that insurance companies

offering you whatever it might be.

Something happens at work. Get an opinion from a good

lawyer. Go find our friend Brian

Dettman, injury lawyer and of course our friends up in

Horseshoe Indianapolis. I'll put out a pic on Twitter

today. They're running alongside

Churchill Downs full card up there and I'll give out a

quarter horse pick up there. Well, QH, how about that?

You like that little 3 yards, Frank, You like that?

And then and then finally, of course, we got to thank our

friends. At at at.

Base, plastic surgery, Med spa. They're just fantastic folks.

They have us in, let us host the Derby draft there this year.

In the in the men's, in the men's club there.

They've got, frankly, if you're a guy and you're listening,

you're like, eh, that's not for me.

And Oak Contraire, I really think there's a bunch of

services that can make you feel better about yourself.

They got that weight loss stuff that I talked about, those

infrared spas. If you're an athlete, you need

that quick recovery. They've also got the Cryo

Chambers. Lots of good options over there

with our friends at May's Plastic Surgery Met Spa.

That new location on Exley is just freaking beautiful.

It's fantastic. So we'll be back final second on

the Derby show. Before we go to break, though,

on the screen that just actually Devo, who's trainer of Vava,

we've been talking about rising stars.

Yes, and we were talking about Maryland.

She's a she's a rising star, Oh no question.

And she's dominating Maryland as a trainer to watch.

That's pretty Russell. Pretty.

I'm sorry. Charita both, though is

absolutely a rising star, so you don't have to you.

Don't have to but. It's Louisiana.

Yes, she's. Yeah, but but Louisiana, and

especially in stakes like we're seeing her pick off this, that

race matters. And so she's.

Yes, she's picking off battery races.

That really, really matters. So good for her, really good to

see. It's good to see the people who

put in the time getting. The We had Jenna Antonucci last

year. I mean the the women.

Trainers are the women, the people.

Trainers are really rising. That's right.

Alright, we'll take a break. We'll be right back.

This is the horse racing Happy hour.

Live from Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby 150, it's the

horse racing happy hour on ESPN 680 and one O 5 Seven.

Here are your hosts, Louie Rabaud and Mike Gandolfo.

All right. Final segment here of the horse

racing. Where does these shows go, man,

I'll? Tell you what, they just showed

Tom Brady got Jimmy Fallon up there, you know?

You mean Jimmy Fallon, the precursor to our show?

That's pretty much it. Yeah, that's.

It takes Kornack in the Kodak is like, OK now I can go on the

happy. Hour.

Go find Kornack. I don't get that picture

picture. So we're here at the top of

3/20. Two, if you have a Derby pick

437-9680 and you include your name.

I will read it on air. How about that?

Just. Cut me off.

Not saying anything. I was saying what you saying, I

said we're on the top of 3/22 are going to let everybody know

that we were filled. That started filling nicely,

give a little bit. The weather really right now is

holding up. You know, who knows if this pop

up shower happens or whatever else.

Track looks good, turf looks good.

The next race race is going to be on the turf, but we still got

a couple minutes before we got to go back to that one and just

remind you of who our picks were.

We're going through the Derby field.

And we got to do well. We got to do the the, the trivia

question jockeys that have won five times and someone had our

Caro and hard sack. That's exactly right.

Great job. By then, of course, Eddie Acaro

just clicked on their own thing on my computer.

I apologize very much. Yeah.

Eddie Acaro, of course. And and Bill Hartek, of course.

Yes. Sorry.

Yes, thank you. Texture, by the way.

I've seen a bunch of text from numbers of people that I know

hang out with Rabo and Co during the week that are chosen to

spend their Saturday with us. That means that means a bunch.

Subscribe to the podcast. Well, that's not a terrible

idea. But also just, hey, thanks for

hanging out, right. Just be for hanging out with us

on a Saturday. We really do.

Appreciate it. Absolutely.

OK, where the the horse we're going to now is the 16 grand MO,

the 1st Louis. This was the first Derby horse

that I saw on the backside, which means that you're supposed

to bet a bad horse. Yep, 2 bucks on him, so.

Guy put this the 2 bucks on the big launch.

Out there my CEO password. How?

About that. Oh, there you go.

That's not bad. It is not.

The How about that grandmother? The first was 50 to 1 Morning

line down to 44 to 1. Not really sure why it's getting

money. Part of that blanket finish in

the Tampa Bay Derby, If you like domestic product that much, why

not take a longer price on him? Or did an Uncle MO play?

Oh, sure, why not? That sure, Sure.

I I don't. I don't know that the

connections that Victor Barbos is ready to win the Kentucky

Derby, But why not? Why not?

Is there anything else other than the source that you?

I mean, are you You're not including the source right now?

He's probably my rich strike in this field.

Oh really? Like least likely to do it.

Least likely OK. All right, the 17 is the Derby

favorite. At least I think.

Yes, it is right now. 7 to 2 Derby favorite.

Considerably better, almost playable.

So yes, that's right. If it gets up to four to one, I

think Fierce This is playable as a win bet.

Absolutely. And I I think 72 to me you're

getting close, you're getting close, right so.

Because remember to it could be like closer to 4:00 to 1:00 but

they show 72 because it's below 4 to one.

It's all kinds of little things anyways.

This is Micropoli, this is Todd Pletcher, this is John Black

Velazquez. And again, we're we're sitting

here getting ready for this race and everybody has had the same

take, which means that we're all going to be wrong, right?

That this horse wins his runs his race, he doesn't have

trouble, no issues. Wins it 100 for 100.

We've asked that question. Everyone said yes, everyone.

Ilman finished it yesterday, Issel finished it today.

Yes, 100%. If he gets in any trouble,

people think that he shuffles back to the back of the pack.

It's a winner or nothing, basically, and.

I don't think that's true, by the way, I'm the only one.

You think that he can hit the board or do you think he can

overcome some trouble? Not overcome trouble.

I think he can finish second to Sierra Leone and endlessly.

Could run him. Down I think we could get to the

8th pole right here. And there are three horses and

two of them have a shot to overtake fiercest.

I think he can hit the board in that scenario and not win the

race. I'm different than other people

that. So we were wondering, so let's,

I just want to go. We have a little history of this

horse because we were at the Breeders Cup.

Saw him win. The juvenile was not the

favorite dominate. The juvenile was not the

favorite was, but you know it was actually and that breeders

juvenile. The biggest, the biggest.

It appears to be, at least on paper and and and watching

replays. The biggest beneficiary of the

dry track today is fierceness. If it's sloppy, I'm probably not

playing him at all. OK, that's that's a great.

Right, because he ran in that champagne and he hated it.

He hated it. 20 lengths up the track doing nothing.

Under I ride Ortiz, they ship him out West.

He runs in that dry dirt, that that warm weather out at the

Breeders Cup like we have today. Very similar weather days,

actually. It's interesting, isn't it Like

low 80s, right? It got actually into the 80s.

People so it was hot for. Very hot for that day, very

similar to that kind of setup. Probably not different than the

Florida Derby was, frankly. So he's run well in heat before.

Look, it cannot be said enough. And because all of us believe in

and we're not, you know, we're not blowing smoke.

If he runs his racy ones, he's the most talented horse here.

But there's no guarantees in the 20 horse field or having to make

the move from 17 or 16. I guess in this case, all of

those things. It's just it's, I don't know,

it's just a lot, but we're getting closer to 4:00 to 1:00.

That's a much considerably better.

So where I was going with my train of thought.

When's the Breeders goof juvenile looks dominating.

Doing it comes back in that holy bull does not look great in the

holy bull. Got a little trouble.

Didn't, didn't fire. We thought, Oh well this is a

horse where everyone else is kind of catching up with him.

You picked him probably third. I think when we got to our

Florida dirty, we had handicapping and so knock on

you, you just thought that he wasn't going to answer dominate.

The best Derby prep performance that we've seen was an F4 Derby

pulled away, no question. It's going to be very

interesting to see what what percentage of the races do you

think? If we had 100 races, how many of

them would he not have? No trouble 1/3. 11. 11 of them

so. I think he wins the Derby 15 to

18% of the time. OK.

There you go. Like he wins one in every six.

He's like a 15 percenter. All right.

So that there, that's what you got with fierceness.

If you love him, you got, I mean, you got to play him.

If you're doing a multiple thing, you got to play him

because he is the most talented horse in the field.

Now, if you're if you're a person who's willing to swing

and miss to try to get a price, then you got to leave him out of

your tickets actually, right? Because you're not going to get

a price if he lands right? Unless you really, unless you're

really sure of some long shots earlier in the races.

Now the good thing about Jeremy Day, the pools are massive, just

absolutely massive. So it's an opportunity to do.

This all right. And a horse that we have been

mentioning a lot on the show who's starting to get a little

run but you wouldn't know by the odds is the 18th Stronghold 20

to one in morning line 34 to one right now on the Santa Anita

Derby winner. And we mentioned that stronghold

has won here in Churchill Downs has beaten two other Derby

horses in that field that he went and won the Santa Anita

Derby over imagination. This horse is being besmirched

like no other. What says?

You why don't you play it up? I mean.

You're the worst reason guy here.

Let's. Go.

I mean, I'm just. Saying like your eye on this

guy. I'm just saying like, why not?

All of the all of the touch points are there, right?

I mean it. Look, Phil D'amato, 16% is in

graded stakes. This horse wins the San Anita

Derby. Great predictor of success in

the Kentucky Derby. Traveled one that Sunderland

Derby First off the bench. After that low S from charity,

right run second in that race to bafford.

There's no bafford here. There's no booth here.

There's no nice house, right? We've got these horses.

Stronghold made that move at the top of the stretch at Santa

needed to go between horses, bullied his way through to make

his own path. That's real positive as well.

I just don't know if he's fast enough.

I'll be really honest, I just don't know if.

He's back to that point on the final Fraction theory.

OK, it's not one of the horses we mentioned in the final

fraction series, because he wasn't 13, he was 13.1.

He wasn't 38, he was 38.7. He's right on the edge.

For if you want a value, you want a price right on the edge,

you want a horse that could hit the board.

There you go. Texture 437968 already PS Job

Sex line. It turned out to be a beautiful

day. We haven't had weather like this

in forever. Time to watch these young horses

run. Young is the pick there.

Other dropping in. Louis.

I listen all day while I'm working.

Give me a bet in the Race 7. Thanks for the show today.

How about? Race 7, which they are getting

ready, 15 minutes to go to Race 7 and we can do that real quick

with. Yeah, we got time.

Two more horses for us to go through.

So Louis, remind everybody again, we're scratching the

eight, we're scratching the 10. The eight's a huge scratch in

this race. Right.

The 11's a heavy favorite at 8:00 to 5:00 right now.

That's unnecessary. And it's actually not one, just

one to nine to five, OK. You're trying to beat it, Is

that right? No, no, no.

We have. Well, yeah, actually you're

right, we are. I got Compass in 3rd spot here,

so we're trying to beat the favorite here.

I got the three on top. Still only seven to two, but

we'll take the seven to two rather than 9 to 5 for sure.

Chili Flag in here. IRAD and Chad won the honey Fox.

Last out is a 5 year old mayor red in France but with with

British connections. That's the best way I can put

it. But Chad Brown seems to not

matter who's who's here, I'm having to actually conduct

traffic while trying to do live radio because the person who's

here to do live radio with me isn't doing his job and is about

to be fired. And so don't touch me right now.

Don't touch me. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

No, listen, it's all. Engines fault.

Blame it all on him. Oh, cow.

Blame Summit. Yeah, go with that.

All right, Never mind. OK, so I got the three on top

here. I actually, like I said, I have

conference third Delahay here for me as well.

The six horse. We talked about this earlier.

Get Chad Brown, you get Tyler. I think we're starting to see a

little bit of a shift, especially here at Kentucky.

Chad really trusts Tyler in this spot, right?

And we're seeing that more and more.

It's not Floppy and Pratt on this horse, it's Tyler got Leon.

So interested in Delahaye here, coming out of that Tom Benson

memorial down to fairgrounds. I'm starting to wonder, Mike,

that that that Sprint we saw yesterday coming off of that

fairgrounds grass, is that going to translate to the other grass

races today? I'm interested to see it.

Would be very interesting. But I do have that 11 thirds, so

if it wins I would not be surprised.

I have to imagine in the book we've got that horse as part of

the Pick 3. The Race 7 is the Distaff Turf

Mile, so we will be again on the turf here, which has been pretty

good. All right, we're going to be

it's. Been more than pretty good, by

the way. I want to.

I want to defend it. We've been, we've been critical.

We've been critical. For years it's been good.

This week for sure. Not a question this week at all.

No, that's the real issue is the end of the month.

That's right. That's right.

All right, the 19, we actually, I said we spoke, we have 3 Derby

horses to go through. The 19 is resilience.

This is another hundred point Winner won the Wood Memorial.

Memorial winner since Vino Rosso.

That was 2015. That was 2015.

It's been 10 years since we've had one this good.

How good did this horse look on the track?

So eyeballs wise, this horse makes total sense.

It's only. 29 to one now in this.

Horse. That's a beautiful number.

You get Bill Mott, who I know DQ D into it.

If he could get Country House to run a good Derby.

Why can't he get resilience to run a good Derby?

I'm sorry. He can't.

The answer is he can. Absolutely.

So I think that horse absolutely can win.

And I I got to look. I think we got him in the in the

book. I mean like.

Got Junior Board, Junior Alvarado I.

Have I have him as a as a winner in our pick three in the book?

OK, awesome. The 20 horse.

I think a lot of resilience, by the way.

I really do. It's a if you watch that path,

they knew exactly what they were doing because they start here

after he's that Saratoga doesn't work out.

He comes here for a couple races, they ship him to Gulf

Stream, where Bill Mott goes at that time of year.

Then they go to fairgrounds, try the Risen star.

It's not great. And they see there's a spot in

the Wood Memorial and look like we've talked about that

represent a lot. It comes out of Aqueduct.

There's something about resilience this year.

Is there any concern to you about him not hitting, about him

not winning one of those two races at Churchill Lambs?

Not at the maiden level, not at 2 years old and not over

sprints. We're talking, we're talking

about all time. I'll record a race here.

Danny Gargan's other horses, the 20s society man, he talked a lot

about this horse, got Frankie Dettori aboard.

This horse right now was 50 to 1.

Morning line at 47 to 1. You know, he was weirdly calling

about this horse. What'd you?

Think that's the thing. Sometimes the the trainers, they

just give it away. They just tell you what's going

on. I think if you're playing a

superfecta, trifecta play here, man, I I think you have to use

society, man. I cannot believe I'm saying that

out loud. I can't believe I'm saying that

a lot. But he was weirdly confident

about that horse. And so I I I got nothing for you

except that he's the son of good magic.

I mean the the, you know, the breeding actually makes sense

here for this ride to be good. I just you and I talk about this

a lot. We've talked about it on on this

particular episode of the show. We're also you and I are also

looking obviously we we want to get today right.

We're also looking forward in the season right to the

three-year old season eventually to the Clips awards that we're

fortunate enough to get to, to to vote on.

Is this the kind of horse that is an Indiana Derby horse?

Is he a, you know, an Ohio Derby horse, something like that or is

he a damn horse that hits the board here and they're like, you

know, we got to try the Belmont because Danny's up in New York

anyway, right. I think he runs well today.

He's seen in the Belmont. The last horse we need to talk

about is the 21 epic ride drew in with a scratch of Encino Adam

Bashiska on aboard here. John Ennis, the trainer you

love. John Ennis.

I too like John Ennis A. Lot 30 to one.

Morty line 46 to one. Now is the odds on Epic.

Ride. You and I have the same approach

to people who move across the world to come to the United

States to try to make their lives.

And John Ennis is one of those guys and he just every day he

gave up everything to come to Kentucky of all things to, you

know, base himself at Keeneland. He's got a really nice barn now

he's doing things down at Thurba Training Center as well.

This is not a horse that I trust in this race.

If you wanted to, you would point, you would look at

probably the Leonidas where he was really good over a mile.

But the second that we started to stretch out further in

distance, he got less effective. You talk about Indiana Derby.

Horses ever cried. Might be just that.

Race 7, the horses are getting ready to come on the track.

We've talked about all the Derby horses.

You know, it's it's really shaping up.

The sun is out, it's gorgeous. It's got the energy.

Here is different for how early we are.

I don't know what to tell people.

It's just there is this little bit of a buzz right here and

it's always awesome here on Derby day, but today just seems

a little extra special. It is Derby 150.

Louie, You mentioned the horses that we have picked in the book.

Yeah, give them real quick who we have as the win contenders in

the book if you were playing those late sequences.

So we have seven horses. So my idea is if you take a

third of the field you got a real good shot to win the

Kentucky Derby. As far as a multi race sequence,

we talked about that of course we're talking pick threes, pick

fours, pick fives etcetera. In the book today I gave out

pick threes. It's my favorite play I Kentucky

Derby day. The pools get big so you can get

some payouts regardless of who wins.

And so that's what we've been doing.

We have Sierra Leone. We have catching Freedom.

OK, OK. I'm sorry, the numbers are all

mixed up. I got, I got the if you tell me

I got the I. Threw an honor, Marie, for you.

Oh, for me? Yes.

Why for me? Because you love the

connections. And also if that horse wins, I'm

going to hear about it forever. If I don't have him in here and

I don't want to deal with it, the other one is is then I threw

it forever young, OK, that one for me and that is also for you,

OK? The 14 and endlessly because of

me. OK, that's obviously.

The 17 is fierceness. I think that's an obvious one.

And then we have resilience. The 19, those are our seven

horses. I also wouldn't mind playing

that as an Exacto box. What about domestic product in

me? We do not have domestic product

on our sheet as a win as. A winner as a winner.

That's right. So that's what we got so far,

man. So we got about 10 minutes left

to go on the show. What's your just general

thoughts on the day? How's it gone so far?

I'm interested, so I kind of want to get into a little bit of

what what can happen if if X Horse wins.

OK, and what that looks like. Fletcher hates the Preakness.

Hates the Freakness. OK, so if if he doesn't have a

winner here today, all of those horses are skipping next week or

two weeks from now, right? And so we're going to lose out

on quite a bit of options for that race, OK, but who are the

winner? Who could win this race, you

think, and come back in two weeks and run their race again?

Fierceness. OK, just because of the running

style. Yeah, I think.

And especially with it being shorter.

Yep, even though I know Pletcher doesn't like it.

Yep, I think he would still. I mean, he would.

I think he would try. Right.

Yep, would would Rappoli let him skip the the Preakness if he

said we need to skip the Preakness?

No, OK, I don't think so. That guy, man, when you think

back because Rapolio and Omaha Beach, is that correct?

I don't know. I think he might have.

I I feel like is that. Saint Elias, do you want St.

Elias? St.

Elias stables. Yes, OK.

Go ahead, keep going. I think that when you think

about what he's trying to do with Forte last year, like if he

thinks he's got a shot at greatness, he's going to go for

shot at greatness. I agree with that.

Always going to go for it. Yeah, you and I have never

agreed on that one. So yeah, I don't, especially if

you can get, you know, be the second horse to get the. 4 Oman

be shown by Fox. Hill.

OK, I was wrong. Sorry.

Sorry about that one. Definitely though, Forte, you

know the the disappointing kind of last year.

They're here this year. OK, so fierce this Could

resilience come back and win? Could resilience come back and

win? Probably not.

Endlessly. It's a dirt horse.

There'll be a dirt horse at that point.

Won't be a. Reminder that the El Camino real

Derby winner a couple of years ago.

Won Romba, won the previous Endlessly, of course, was a

winner of that race forever young.

I think the Japanese horses could do it the best.

I think they could too, because. They train a lot.

Harder, like not knowing what the quarantine use over there,

right? I would love for them to win the

race and then force everyone to figure it out.

I would too, because honestly, I think I would just open

Timonium. Let him train.

Yeah, let's do it all right for. People who don't know tell

people what Timonium. Is, oh, sorry, the Maryland

State Fairgrounds. Yeah.

Yeah, the Maryland Got backfall track.

It's a Bristol Motor Speedway of horse racing.

It's if you've ever seen the track with the with the Ferris

wheel in the background, that's timonium.

Yeah, you're right. Sorry.

I should do that. What if like a just steel jumps

up? Can that horse do it again?

Son of Justified. Yes.

Yeah. The answer is yes.

How about that? Catching freedom.

Son of Constitution Pioneer, The Nile on the bottom side.

I'll. I'll go.

Yes. Brad Cox, right.

Maybe. Right.

Okay. Sierra Leone, son of gun Runner.

Malibu Moon on the Mom side. I'm going to go no.

Okay. Just the style, right?

Just so much work to get revved up for these races.

Might be hard to go too once. The at once the extra distance

on the court. By the way, this is where I'm

Now that we actually know people in this race.

I'm conflicted, right? Because Brooke Smith would

follow us around in Baltimore. I think we'd have great time,

right? Yeah, right.

Oh, my God. Crushed. 100 percent and again

all. Right.

Serious show question. We'll do happy hour stuff right

now. Dan Oman, our guy wins the old

Hilltop Award. Do we have an obligation to be

at the old Hilltop Breakfast? I mean, I mentioned that

yesterday. I, I, I like literally cannot

make it happen because BJ BJ. But I'm also got another TV

thing I got to do. I could not do it.

OK. I would if, if I if it worked

out, I would have loved to have been there for him.

I definitely would have been there for him because I think

it's such an incredible honor for him to get that and nobody

deserves it more. Dan is just an amazing guy and

we're just really blessed and he's embraced our show the way

he has, so. 100% We're really fortunate that we get to have

Dan Ellman and Dan Issel on back to that day.

Now you. You know, are you going to

change your plans and go out there earlier or?

What I'm working on it. OK, I'm working on it.

Dan. It's an important guy.

The. Cool thing is that you can

actually get that Southwest like the Baltimore early enough in

the morning. And actually, just do it.

Damn. That's right.

Yep. I looked at it for sure.

Yeah. And I'm sure if I went to them

and said, hey, I'm flying in and coming straight there, they'd be

like, yeah, just break your back.

Yeah, you know, whatever. Yeah, for sure.

So now I look looking forward to that trip.

Not expensive either, to go that breakfast.

Who is your Derby pick? I don't know that you told us.

I'm. I officially went with

fierceness in the Herald Leader. OK, I'm going to go.

I'm going to stick with fierceness.

But I, you know, I think forever.

Young's got a real shot. I really do.

So I like that a lot. So you're so you're top 217 and

10 or 17? 1711 And then I would I got to

remember exactly what I put. It's a domestic product.

You sound kind. Of IO I I think I am now.

Like I wrote that thing. I wrote that thing for the

Herald Leader and you know your mind changes.

Everything kind of flows. It's just this this field is so

interesting. Try to figure out right and

because you really got Sierra Leone and you got fiercest up

top and then it's very balanced the rest of the way.

There you go. All right.

I'm endlessly on Top 14. I'm not.

Going to be shocked by the way I'll be waiting for you.

I I I'm wondering so we're three for five today on top right or

three for six now? Gold Books.

Wait, did we have the winner in the in the sixth race?

I can't remember now. Baba.

Yeah, OK, never mind. We're four for six today.

Geez. And I tried to beat that

ridiculous mindlessly favorite, and I just picked that guy Be 5

for six, right? I'm wondering if I'm just in a

beery zone. In a weird zone and it's

endlessly that's at the end of the trail, I wonder.

Let's see, man. So I'm 14 on top, then I'm

catching Freedom the 4th and Fierceness 3rd.

I'll put Sierra Leon 4th just because I think he's got too

much work to do. But this has been the horse

racing happy hour on ESPN 680. By the way, thanks to all the

folks at ESPN 680 for always hosting us, letting us do this

Tanner back at the station, getting up on a Saturday to do

this for us as well. He's Mike Andolfo.

I'm Louie Rebel. Thanks so much for spending part

of your Derby 150 day with us. We're going.

To pay the tab and get out of here.

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