KY Racing Spotlight 3/ 28/25

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We are ESPN Louisville. Welcome to the Kentucky Racing

Spotlight with Louis Ribo, presented by the Kentucky HPA.

Now here's Louis Ribo. Hi, welcome in it is a March

28th, 2025 edition of the Kentucky Racing Spotlight with

Louie Rabo. Hey, I'm Louie Rabo.

I'm in the studios of ESPN 680 and 105.7.

You can find me here 11:50 every weekday.

Odd Rabo and Co amongst other ventures for me this time of

year. We're going to get straight into

the Derby trail with this show. Today we'll talk to my friend

Matthew DeSantis. He's based in New York.

We will talk to him about his impressions of the Derby trail

to this point and all those great horses that are either

showing up right now at Churchill, which is open, which

is our man. You know, they changed that

Derby sign. They those horses start showing

back up to Churchill Downs. That's our own Groundhog Day, is

it not? Is that not Kentucky's Groundhog

Day? Is that not when we know that

spring has sprung? It is time to get going When we

see those horses back at Churchill Downs, I always think

of Scott Eckert and that kind of stuff.

The overhead shots that he's always able to get does such a

great job over there. But man, we see that sign

change. We see 151 and we know that it's

just five weeks until that first Saturday May.

We know it's just five weeks until Churchill Downs is rocking

and that's what today is about. We'll talk to Brian Nadeau in

the final segment of the show about the Florida Derby in the

car down there. Sovereignty obviously going to

be the favorite going to the to the gate there.

Just some unbelievable bad luck with jockey injuries this

weekend. Tyler out, junior out.

We're going to get Manny Franco on Sovereignty and we're going

to get Mike Smith. How about that Hall of Famer

shipping in from California to ride Maticot Rd. for Bob Baffert

last out in the Rebel, of course, but you'll hear about

all those horses in the next two segments.

And I just, I was smiling so big when I saw the sign change

because this winter has been so brutal.

The weather's been up and up and down and I know today's a

beautiful day. I'm not complaining.

And I'm the guy who shoot closes all of his shows, encouraging

people to get outside and encouraging people to enjoy the

weather no matter what it might be.

But man, spring is sprung and we've had a fun Derby season to

this point. I was just up for the Ruby at

Terfoy Park, one of our two preps here in the state.

I love that we have, we have 3 races like that.

Of course we always have the Derby.

We've had the Bluegrass for a very, very long time.

Obviously the Ruby is an established race, but now that

it's a win and in for the Kentucky Derby and frankly has

the Providence that it has now. If you were trying to figure out

10 years ago where the best horse is going to come out of,

you would have said off fairgrounds.

We know, we know. But man, the the turfway thing,

it's changed so much. It's worth remarking.

It's worth reminding ourselves, whatever we think about it, just

how much it has changed. That was a serious prep final

game, but was a serious winner Flying Mohawk right behind him.

They're going to they're going to give it a go.

Jason Worth back at it. And every time we think we're

losing star power, we're losing whatever in our sport, man,

someone else pops up. Solid reminder.

We just need to get people to the track.

It was so fun being up there seeing people at the track that

you could tell just don't go very often and it's always fun

to be at a tracks big day. I don't know if people remember

over the summer on this show, we had Grant Forster on and he

talked about that, you know, being a Pacific Northwest guy,

talking about, you know, being there for the Long Acres Mile at

Emerald Dods, being at those kinds of days and being at Ruby

Day at at Turfway Park, that the the the smash of people, the

noise, the excitement. Now, to be fair, at Turfway,

it's a little more difficult to pick out a winner.

So a little less celebrating with the horses are coming down.

Those favorites seem to win a lot less.

But man, it was a great day, great weather, everything else.

They did a great job up there for the Ruby.

And then we get in the Louisiana Derby.

We get it test tastic for Steve Asmussen and and you know,

obviously for so many trainers that Derby is the thing they

haven't done. Steve's done everything else.

We know that, but Tab started on the Derby feeling good for him,

feeling good for those connections.

Hopefully that horse shows up like he did in Louisiana Derby.

We're seeing a lot of horses who want to come from pretty deep at

the top of this class, sovereignty included, who we'll

see tomorrow in the Florida Derby.

Interested by the time we get to next week.

And we're talking about those 3 preps, the Bluegrass, the Wood,

and the Santa Anita Derby. Can we get a horse that's a

little bit closer to the front? Maybe a journalism out West,

we'll find out who's running in New York.

That bluegrass field looks stacked.

Should be a lot, a lot, a lot of fun moving forward.

I'm Lou Rebeau. I'm I'm done with the first

segment here because we're going to have a long discussion with,

excuse me, with Matthew DeSantis and then of course with our guy

Brian Nadeau in New York and in Miami respectively about our

great race here that everyone from around the world comes to

see. And that is our Kentucky Derby

were presented as we always are by the Kentucky HBA, KYHBP,

a.com, all the great people and all of the great equine athletes

that make our great sport go here in the Commonwealth.

Go check them out at the website kyhpa.com.

On the other end, we talked with Matthew DeSantis.

I keep wanting to say Brian Nadeau.

I just enjoy what talking about. We talked with Matthew DeSantis

about the the status of the top and contenders in the our excuse

me on the Derby trail and we do that next.

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Kentucky. Welcome back to the Kentucky

Racing Spotlight on ESPN 680 and One O 5 Seven.

Now here's Louis Rebeau. All right, welcome back in

second segment on a Friday, March 28th edition of the

Kentucky Racing Spotlight with Louis Rebeau.

Guess what? I'm Louis Rebeau in the studios

of ESPN 680 and one O 5 seven. Thank you so much for making us

part of your horse racing weekend.

We're presented as we we always are by the Kentucky HBPAKYHBP

a.com. Great stuff over there.

Of course, all the photos, articles and videos from around

the Commonwealth, all the great people that make our great sport

go here in a Kentucky. He's not in Kentucky, but he's

on Long Island. His name is Matthew DeSantis.

I will see him next week for the Wood Memorial, which is always

exciting to get to talk about. We wanted to get into a little

bit of these Derby rankings and where we have our horses, and

frankly, if you've got some Oaks horses that aren't named Good

cheer, I'd love to hear about it, but we'll get into that in a

little bit. Matthew, thanks so much for

coming back on the Spotlight Show.

Really do appreciate it. How do you take in the Derby

trail? Because obviously for all

intents and purposes, it does start in September with the

Iroquois Stakes to Churchill Downs, move around Breeders'

Cup, all those things in the fall.

When do you really think you start keying in on your Derby

horses? Well, it's funny, I think I

really start keying in on them. Honestly, the last couple of

weeks to to now. I'm not somebody.

I think a lot of times people try to pick a Derby horse in

January, February. There's almost this pride in I

got my Derby horse and you first, and it's just like, OK be

I'd rather be right than first. So I kind of want to wait to see

how they stretch out, how they handle 9 furlongs.

I think in particular to me, that's Louis.

I don't know about you, but for me that's always the big

distinction between 8 1/2 and nine.

Once you start hitting nine and nine plus furlongs, now I can

start taking you a little bit more seriously, I think as a

legitimate contender. That's why races like the

Louisiana Derby are so critical. That's why these final round

preps that are a mile and an eighth I think are so important

because a mile on a 16th, there's a lot of different types

of pedigrees that can get that. And a mile and an eighth,

suddenly the practical jokes aren't running quite as well.

Suddenly some of the end of mischiefs are are starting to

fade a little bit and you start to kind of get oh, suddenly,

hey, here's the curlings, here's the gun runners, here's the

tappets. And it's just like, oh, here's

the ones that are really going to be the major players for the

first Saturday in May. So I tend to try to wait.

I just try to take as much information in during these

early preps as I can. And then and like I said, this

is the time of year where you evaluate every single race.

So this is where you're like Travis Stone and I'm like Jason

Beam, Hear me out. So I asked both of those guys in

recent in recent weeks, hey, when same question, when do you

start really paying attention? And Beam told me, hey, when when

the Risen Star 50 pointers, that's when I start to really

pay attention. And even Travis, though, who

calls this called the Virginia Derby, he calls obviously the

Kentucky 100 pointers. I'm and he called, he told me

that right before he called the 50 pointer.

And look, I, I appreciate the candor for sure, but it was, it

was a little surprising to hear him say that I'm more like

Jason. I think that, you know, Tampa

Bay Derby essentially starts it for me.

If I see a horse run well in that race and I know they've got

a shot to land in Louisville or you know, some other prep that

way, that's really when it starts for me.

So, but you're you're right about the the 100 point part for

sure. We know that horse, if healthy,

will run in the Derby and you know, connections want them to

be there, etcetera. We had two of the 100 porters

already, Matthew in the books. I was at the Ruby.

You mentioned the Louisiana Derby winner in Tastic for Steve

Asmussen and the pick five only paid 188 grand.

So obviously you didn't have that because you're talking to

me today. But the correct tastic man, I

thought frankly, he kind of just put it together in this case,

gets out of Oak Lawn, gets away from that cold battle group and

everything else that we'll see this weekend in the Arkansas

Derby. Was it a softer field or do you

think he ran a really good race? I thought I thought both things

might be true. I thought it wasn't basically

the strongest field. I mean you saw a horse like

chunk of gold finishing second who I really like.

That was my pick to win actually, I I really like that

horse a lot. The great story that's the worst

that'll be in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby cost 2500

bucks. So that's pretty fantastic.

But tastic also classic Steve Asmussen training job.

Just like horse keeps getting better, keeps getting better,

keeps getting better, figures things out.

And I that's the horse that just also benefited from the right

sort of pace scenario. That pace melted down.

And this is a horse that likes to come from off the pace and it

was a great ride and came it came from off that pace and did

it. But you know something the last

few years, what have we seen horses coming from off the pace

to win the Kentucky Derby? So I too tend to put a lot of

value on those horses that have shown the ability to pass

others, handle pace meltdowns and that sort of thing because

there's going to be playing front end speed, I'd imagine, in

this year's Hundred and 51st Kentucky Derby.

Tis the Law, the sire here. It always makes me feel old,

Matthew, watch horses like Tis the Law jump up as sires and

frankly, high end sires like we're seeing in this case.

Obviously he's the winner of that Milan and Nath Belmont in

2020. Kind of a strange race, but ran

a really good Kentucky Derby man.

I mean, he loses to Authentic in that one.

Just a terrific stretch run with me and like 38 other people at

Churchill pounds that day. But you know, yeah, we're seeing

Tis the Law. You know, you talk about, you

know, the tappets and the curlings and whatever else tis

the law seems to line up in my mind as a horse that whose

prodigy should be able to get, you know, 9 and 10 furlongs.

100% agree. That's one of the things we saw

with this first crop and that the second they started going

along, whether it was on the dirt or the turf, you saw their

numbers really pop up. I think at one point last season

with this first crop, something like 32% of winners in route

races, dirt and turf combined. I mean, so it was one of those

were once they started stretching out, they really

excelled. And you're right, I he seems

like going to be a great distance, sire, I think moving

forward. I talked to Brad Cox on Blood

Horse Monday this week and he he was very non committal about the

third and 4th place finishers in this race.

You did mention, however, Chunk of Gold who finished second.

He's got 75 points. He's going to be in the starting

gate, 3 for three, running second this year in the company

that he's been in and frankly all of it in stakes.

Company breaks his maiden at Turf Way in December.

Then they move him down to Fairgrounds to try him on the

dirt. They find out he likes the dirt

look weirder things have happened that a chunk of gold

hit the board in the Derby. Absolutely no chunk of gold is

that's a legitimately good horse.

And you know, I know the pedigree, you know, it isn't

overwhelming necessarily, but he's 1/2 sibling to Band of Gold

who won the Martha Washington last year.

I mean, so it's not as if there's no pedigree there.

And again, he's a horse that likes to come from off the pace,

can pass other horses, has a lot of useful characteristics.

I think you saw really gutsy effort from that horse running

2nd. And how do you not be happy for

Ethan West and the whole family? You know, going down there, it's

a great story. Again, you know, especially when

you combine it with something like Cole Battle, who we're

going to be seeing this weekend in the Arkansas Derby.

Another kind of feel good story with trainer Lonnie Briley.

A $70,000 purchase. You know, we talk about all

these. One Point X $1,000,000 you know,

purchases for Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox, and

it's nice to see. All right.

Was that me or you, buddy? Actually.

I don't know. I'm back.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I'll edit it out.

It's not a big deal. Matthew.

You can say this way with us here on the Kentucky Racing

Spotlight. Louis Rebo, of course, in the

saddle today. We've talked Louisiana Derby.

Let's head up to Turfway Park. We'll talk about that.

Ruby. Now final gambit does get the

job done. We talked with, we tried to Brad

Cox again on Blood Horse Monday about him and a great moment.

Matthew, you'll appreciate this. Brad is literally driving to his

house from Louisiana and doing the interview.

OK, so he's got the he and of course I have to ask him to do a

podcast link because we're doing the show, right?

So he's got his phone laying next to him on the passenger

seat. OK, so you see the top of his

car on the on the camera. OK.

And we, we go through the Louisiana Derby.

Nothing, nothing, nothing. He's waiting for us to to, you

know, bring him in on the show and then we announced that we're

going to watch the stretch run of the Ruby.

And then all of a sudden I see that phone face move just a

little bit and I see Brad's face because he's watching the

replay. He gets closer to his house and

you know what? I don't blame him.

This was an incredible stretch run, frankly, and you mentioned

it. We're getting a bunch of off the

pace closers as winners of the Kentucky Derby, not necessarily

as all the horses that hit the board.

Certainly he had a Mystic Dan mid pack got the lead early in

the stretch there held on last year.

And so we'll see those kinds of horses as well.

I don't love that this horse is so far back in his running

style, Matthew, because with twenty horses in a field, having

to pass 19 is too much of a task in my mind.

However, something I did like is this horse was willing to go out

not just to the middle of the track, but even further out a

couple of paths to make his own move, run by himself.

And yes, did he come back in a little bit, but final game it'll

or excuse me, a flying Mohawk a little bit there.

Yes, absolutely. But that's going to happen with

horses coming off the turn, making those lead changes,

etcetera. If I took a positive from it, it

would be that. I still think a bit of, I don't

know that I saw the Derby winner in the Ruby and I say that we

got, we got Cesar Gray out of that race last year.

We got 2 fills out of that race. Very recently, we got Rich

Strike out of that race. So it's been a harbinger of very

good results for horses going forward.

Did you see that on Saturday? Yeah, I I kind of saw the way

you did on Saturday. I think there might be some nice

horses. I think flying Mohawks, a really

nice horse. And I think that that's a horse

that we're going to talk a lot about as the year goes on.

Maybe a little bit more like a sees the grey.

Maybe not in terms of the exact same trajectory in terms of

races, but in terms of, hey, that's a really nice horse.

You remember when that horse ran in the Ruby sort of a thing?

Yeah, I worry about all of that in terms of just like how, you

know, obviously unless you're Sierra Leone and you get a

nuclear pace set up coming from all the way in the back is going

to be a real big challenge for you and I, you know, again the

the challenge with the synthetic and it can go one of two ways.

We've seen that transition from the synthetic to the dirt

Churchill be very effective. But at the same time, we've seen

turf horses do very, very well on the synthetic and sometimes

that is not as replicable when they get to an actual dirt

surface. And we saw that with Endlessly,

maybe to the lesser extent last year.

So I think for me, it's a little bit of a lamb with let's wait

and see on that one. And I'll, I'll be interested to

see, you know, what the workouts might look like at Churchill

Downs for that one, because that was a key with Endlessly, I

think. That's exactly right.

And you know, you and I disagreed on endlessly last

year. You have turned out to be very

right about that. But the you.

Know. No, no, but what I'm saying is

I'm I'm also trying not to let that one horse shape how I look

at all of the Ruby runners going forward.

A mistake we make in horse racing so often is is we draw a

line through performances, but we don't draw a line through a

single happening of a stakes race or something like that,

right? Where the, you know, the Santa

Anita Derby last year was not a great prep.

It just wasn't OK. But it doesn't mean the Santa

Anita Derby sucks forever. Like, what are we doing here?

Right? I mean, it's simply that's not

what we're doing here. So I don't want to do that with

the Ruby either, right? This is AII think your approach

is the right one here with a horse like final gambit.

In other words, hey, let this horse get to Churchill again.

He's trained there before. Let him get back to the dirt.

See what's going on? Because Because Brad Cox even

told us. Hey, we were ready to run them

in the rush away and then the American turf, like they were

just ready for that. So I think we're going to see

him get to Churchill. You know, the ownership will

have to make a decision there. But I, I, I think with this one

and you got Brad Cox in your corner, I think you're going to

see this one in the Derby. Especially because the other

thing to point out is Brad Cox's other runners have kind of

disappointed this year on the Derby trail.

You know, with John Hancock, with Rapture, with Patch Adams,

they've not really come through. Now with Tappan St. we will see

this weekend in the Florida Derby, but he doesn't have as

many as maybe you'd think he might at this point on the Derby

trail. So you know, getting one in the

starting gate might be important.

You mentioned you mentioned him going forward Tappan St. in the

Florida Derby. The other horse we're going to

see there is sovereignty. And this is one when I talked

with the morning linemaker Brian Nadeau down at Gulfstream last

month ahead of oh gosh, the oh gosh, is it the holy bull, the

fountain of view, the fountain of view It was was, hey, what's

sovereignty going to do here? And he said, I have no idea.

And I. And look.

I, I, we've, I've kind of gone back and forth on this and, and

you know, my colleague Sean Collins said something like,

yeah, he doesn't have to be totally turned on for this one.

He's already qualified for the Derby.

He's good to go. And I said, here's the

difference. I think with Godolphin and with

a horse like Sovereignty, when you get the words grade one next

to a race, they're cranked. That horse is cranked.

You, you don't know what's going to happen in a 20 horse Kentucky

Derby, but if you could control a grade one like the Florida

Derby you're going to, it just makes way too much sense for

them. It's a home bred in this case

and so I think he's going to be totally cranked.

Do you agree with me about sovereignty and where is he in

your sort of general rankings? Is he a top like three kind of

horse for you right now? Well, he's a top two horse for

me. It's journalism and sovereignty

and maybe from A1B coin flip sort of a thing.

He's he's outstanding. I mean, and honestly, his

estimation has only gone up with Tastic winning the Louisiana

Derby because he dusted that horse at Churchill Downs in the

street sense last year. So, you know, it makes you just

go, this horse is good. And to Brian's point, I don't

even know if Sovereignty knew what he was going to do halfway

down the backstretch of the Fountain of Youth.

Because he. Was just kind of floundering

around back there, about 10 lengths back and you're going,

hey, are you going to do something here?

This is Gulfstream Park. You got to start going.

And all of a sudden the ears pricked up and junior made a

move and it was like, all right, here we go.

And he just gobble up all that field despite the short stretch.

I, I think that I, you know, I'm probably somewhere between you

and Sean in this one. I, I don't know if he's all the

way cranked, but I also don't think it's just like, we'll see

we're already there. I don't think it's like, hey,

we're happy for running sort of a thing.

I do think that the jockey change is a little bit

significant because Junior Alvarado has that fractured

scapula is all out of racing for three weeks.

Manny Franco comes in of course, rides for Godolphin quite a bit.

Does Manny Franco with for Brad Cox a lot of times.

But so Manny's got a lot of familiarity there, comes in and

is riding. Manny's a great rider, but he's

been riding up at Aqueduct all winter and now he's coming down

to Gulfstream Park and Manny's a strong rider just like Junior

has finished. His race is strong, but I

sometimes worry about a new rider on a closer.

You even saw that with Sierra Leone and Flavian Pratt taking a

few races to really kind of figure him out.

I always feel like with a new rider, it's easier to be on a

speed horse because you just go, let's go, let's get out there

and go. And I know I I just have my own

internal clock. I can control the fractions and

we're good to go. Whereas like now, hey, we got to

navigate things, we got to do this, we got to do that.

And that scares me a little bit with sovereignty in this

particular race. But he's no, even if he doesn't

win, he's not moving out of my top 2.

That's how good I think he is. Got it.

It makes a lot of sense. Of course, the Florida Derby,

the best predictor for high level success in the Kentucky

Derby with the most winners coming out of it.

Tappan Street is a Brad Cox trainee.

Windstar Farm on the ownership here and in the mischief.

Brad sounded really excited about this one when we talked to

him on Monday. He's only run twice but I

thought last outgoing two turns for the first time really showed

something in the Holy Bowl right behind Burnham Square, who at

the time I thought was running as well as any 3 year old in the

country. So finishing the race that way.

If he comes back, he's been training well enough at Payson.

I I think he's interesting. I I do think he's going to have

to finish second to make the Derby though.

Yes, he will. I mean, he only got 10 points,

so he will have to finish second, I think.

I mean, it would maybe skate in if there's a lot of people who

decide to pass with only 35 points, but you, you probably

have to finish second. The I'm also very excited for

him and I thought he ran, I thought Pio actually called a

great race that day in the Holy Bowl because he said Tappan St.

ran his race and he was absolutely right.

Tappan St. ran his race. He didn't run a bad race.

He fired. He just you know, Burnham Square

just ran a little bit better, that's all and and I thought it

was really interesting that Cox it's it's so interesting.

He said he's excited because I even just finished writing about

this for Naira Bets, which was it's notable that he didn't try

to pressure this horse into another prep race, knowing this

is my one chance to get this horse into the Kentucky Derby

basically. And so he must know this horse

is sitting on a massive effort in my opinion.

And so at 5:00 to 1:00 in the morning line, this is the horse

that I actually most want to bet in that race because I think

you're getting the best combination of value and

potential for winning from everybody else in the field.

I saw we have a chance to see a Baffert trainee at the Wood next

week. I'm open.

Certainly the case we will see a Baffert tradie in the Florida

Derby, which is not something we always see in Maddocket Rd.

This is an interesting one because he's he's going to be

able to be near the front and when when the best horse in the

race of sovereignty, who's going to be behind him?

I love Matt for getting a lead and just just being able to hold

on to 1. I would not be stunned at all to

see a Maticot Rd. in the top two in this 1 and in the starting

gate when we get to that first Saturday.

May. I'm getting to the point here,

Matthew with just the ability to qualify Ha Citizen Bowl and him

who knows the cornucopian, we'll get to him in a second, but you

know, just might have like 5 starters here dude.

You know, he could no, it it's it's incredible.

I mean, when you see him just spreading these horses all

across the country the way he that he is.

And yeah, Maddocket Rd. Also, another late jockey

change, Tyler Gafflione paddock incident on Wednesday, broke an

ankle. He's off big money.

Mike Smith coming in now for the day is going to be on.

So again, Mike Smith. Now here's another example.

What I was saying earlier, you put Mike Smith on a horse with

good early speed. Sure, I'm interested in that

horse. You know, Mike knows how to ride

that horse. Now.

Mike takes over her sovereignty. I don't like that so much, but

Mike take it over from Madigan Rd.

That works for me. He'll be interesting this

weekend as well. They'll run another Hunter

pointer in Arkansas, Million and a half bucks on the line in the

Arkansas Derby publisher Sandman and Cornucopian, sort of the top

of that group that aren't in that automatic top five.

Like say a coal battle. What do you make of coal battle?

Are we, are we downplaying how good he is?

Because it's Lonnie Briley and there's a $2500 sire fee.

I think a little bit, I think a little bit, I think people are

underplaying him because the speed figures, you know, he only

ran in 91. I think buyer speed figure in

the Rebel, I think people would say, well, that's got to get

faster. Well, you go back, people were

saying that before the Rebel. They said, well, he only ran in

84. Well then he runs in 91.

Well, now he only ran in 91. Well, you know what he does?

He keeps winning. He's never lost on the dirt.

He can win on a wet track. He can win on a dry track.

He can win sprinting, he can win routing, he can win off the

pace. He can went on the lead.

You know, I heard David Aragona the other day talking, you know,

kind of like he goes, this horse just seems to keep getting the

magical trip and I go David, it's because the horse is that

good. Like it just gives himself the

right trip every single time. It's not rocket science.

It's just, you know, it's not that the horse locks out.

It's just the horse has that ability and I love that.

What Lyle, what Vargas, the jockey said, she goes, the horse

moves himself at the 3/8 pole. The horse just knows at the 3/8

pole. I got to go and just gets

himself into a position and I think that's actually the

biggest difference between him and a horse like Sandman, who I

believe is more naturally talented, which is Sandman puts

himself in a position to lose races and Cole Battle puts

himself in a position to win races.

And and that's the difference between those two horses.

Yeah, Sandman terrible start last time did give him a self,

give himself a chance to win last time.

An additional 2nd place finish, two back in the Southwest.

I think he needs probably a third place finish here.

What do you think of Sandman on Saturday?

You think he's going to be cranked?

I think he will be. I think he'll be cranked and I

think if Jose Ortiz and there's a jockey change there from

Christian Torres, I think if Jose Ortiz gets this horse to

what I just said in a position to win, if he can get him just

sitting mid pack and you're not out of distance from the the

leaders, then that horse has shown a massive turn of foot

late in these races and just a huge late kick that is honestly

reminiscent of a red route, one of a Sierra Leone of a horse

that can just come flying late. But at some point you got to

graduate from being the champion of the gallop out to winning the

actual race and crossing the wire 1st.

And I think that's going to be the biggest question with with

Sandman. And the big question is what

price are you willing to take that on?

Because right now at a three to one morning line price, I don't

necessarily love that for a horse that has never won a state

race compared to Cole Battle who's won four in a row.

So it's it's going to be a little bit of a challenge on on

Saturday, but he's got the talent to do it for sure.

Cornucopian is going to be in this race going from six

furlongs to 9 furlongs. One start ever.

We see the classic Baffert 5 and 6 furlong workout pattern at

Santa Adidas, so he clearly thinks he's got something here.

Yes, a million and a half dollars will help you ship

anywhere you want, but he had this horse break its maiden at

Oaklawn as well, moving Madikit Rd. away from Oaklawn down to

Gulfstream Park. Am I reading too much into this

or does Baffert think he has something?

Because I think Baffert thinks he's got something.

I think Baffert thinks he has something and I think, I think

it's not just that he moved Madika Rd. he moved Barnes and

that's the horse. I mean, Barnes is the horse that

we, you know, now is kind of on the outside looking in on a lot

of these. But Cornucopian in one race

managed to leapfrog about 90% of Baffert's horses.

And to really the point where only Citizen Bull is kind of the

protected 1A horse that's going to stay out of Santa Anita and

run out there. But otherwise, I mean this horse

seems to have the goods you know and would seem to be able to get

to 9 furlongs. Now whether you can do it in a

second career start switching off Lasix going against grade

one company. Those are you know, look

legitimate questions to ask. It doesn't happen often, but I

listen. He you watch that maiden

breaking victory at six furlongs and the way that he spurts away

from them the last 100 yards would say this horse wants to

keep running. And he is a physical specimen.

I just saw Matt Dinnerman posted a picture of him paddock

schooling, a video of him paddock schooling at Oakland

Park. He's dappled out.

He looks amazing and so I rather teach junior who wrote him that

day has been telling everybody this horse looks to be the good.

So I I have a hard time thinking that Bob shipping this one to

Arkansas just to run 3rd or 4th. I I think he knows he's got a

really good one here. Yep, top one or two in the

Arkansas Derby. Of course, we'll move you on to

the Kentucky Derby starting gate should you be healthy enough for

that. Last one I want to ask you about

is a horse who's qualified and we know he's going to be there.

Speaking of Irad Ortiz junior, and that is Owen Almighty and

you talk about the mile and his 16th preps and those kinds of

things. He does win in Tampa.

And look, he's an impressive horse, man.

He's you get an honest effort from that horse every single

time he goes to the starting gate.

So even even if we don't see him in the Kentucky Derby or he

doesn't do a lot in the Kentucky Derby, Matthew I I'm going to be

following this one because you're just going to get an

honest effort from him every single time.

Is Ted Furlongs too much for him or are we reading into Brian

Lynch telling a just saying the words Pat de Mile earlier in his

career and just kind of honestly, like we talked about

Lonnie Bradley and and it being him and the and the stud fee.

Are we not? Are we doing that now with, with

Brian because we're, are we using Brian's words against him

essentially? I, I don't know if we're using

it against, I think we might be using history against Brian a

little bit because everybody remembers Classic Causeway and,

and I think there's a little bit of that of like the owners were

like, no, no, no, we want to go to the Derby.

It's like maybe we don't do that with Classic Causeway.

And so it was, I think it's something similar where you want

to see the horse put forth its best effort in every possible

race. And I admit from a pedigree

standpoint, I don't really like this horse going 10 furlongs at

all. And the horse, yes, went gate to

wire on 2 speed favoring tracks. And you know, I just you, you

put this horse against legitimate front end

competition. You know, I don't mind the idea

of running in the bluegrass, maybe see what we have there and

if it runs well in the bluegrass, then then we can go

to the Kentucky Derby and feel pretty confident about things.

OK, I get it. But I also understand the sees

the Gray perspective of maybe we don't run well in the bluegrass

and we go and we end up in the pat a mile anyway.

And that's fine. We're right back to where wanted

us to start in the 1st place. So, you know, I'm just hoping

for the best for the horse. But it's funny, I was thinking

of this a little bit with as it relates to you, because it

actually reminded me a little bit of the debate over endlessly

from last year about, well, should we run the horse on the

turf or the dirt? And for this one, it's like,

well, do we run the horse in the Derby or a mile?

And what's best for the horse and what, you know, the owners

can do whatever they want. They own the horse.

So it's, it's one of those things, but it is it's going to

be interesting to see And, and it's one of the cool storylines

because he is a he's a very cool horse, very plucky little horse

and definitely picked up a lot of fans along the way winning

those two races out of Tampa. I have Citizen Bowl second in my

rankings, which I think makes me a little different than other

people. I'm sovereignty, Citizen Bowl

than journalism, and I'm with you largely.

To me, those are the same. They're all on the same kind of

level. I trust all of them.

They all kind of run a little bit different.

I guess Sovereignty and journalism are a little more

similar. Journalism I think of being

closer to the front, but it's hard for me, Southern

California, to really know how his running style is going to

play, but he seems to be a little bit closer.

Am I crazy to have Citizen Bowl in my top three?

I think you're great. I have him third, so not far off

from you at all. And I think that he is a horse

that I don't know if we're going to actually have a good sense of

him until the Kentucky Derby, because the problem is he has

gotten the easiest potential leads on merry go round tracks

in California with his stablemates basically playing

defense flanked to his outside the whole time.

And when you see, you know, what is the Robert B Lewis where

Maddocket Rd. is is rating in fourth place and then suddenly

goes to the rebel and is running like a 22 second first opening

quarter. Wait a second.

How could you not press Citizen bull in the in the in the Bob

Lewis? But you know, so he just has

been getting these leads. He's not he's not really been

pressed and it's been kind of pretty easy going.

But the way Bob has managed him makes you think that Bob thinks

very highly of that horse and that he's been managed like the

one a horse in the barn and like the Alpha in the barn and that

everything kind of is around Citizen Bowl being the crown

jewel of the Santa Anita Derby. So I don't think you're crazy

for having him high. I have him high up as well.

And I'll be honest, if we keep seeing horses winning from off

the pace, winning these hundred point prep races, maybe we

suddenly go, hey, son of a gun Citizen Bulls alone in the lead

in the Kentucky Derby. And you know, Bob Baffert knows

how to win that race. Gate Dwyer as well as anyone.

Just as well as anyone that's exactly right that Santa Anita

Derby sets up and and I can't wait to talk about it next week

because I think even if you don't follow horse racing, it

sets up such an obvious clash of styles with Citizen Bowl on the

lead, journalism, chasing whatever Barnes can do.

And you don't have to understand horse racing at all to think

that that's going to be a great finish.

It's going to be spectacular. So I'm very, very.

Yeah, I'll be there at aqueducts next week with you, Matthew.

Just any any anything I need to know about Wood Memorial Day

you. Know.

I'm excited about the car. That's probably Barry Spears.

I'm kidding, Barry. All right, Sorry.

We'll. Get out of here, we.

Love, we love this night. He's making the trip.

You'll see him next week. I know I'm very excited for that

and I think, you know, I don't want to get too far ahead of

myself and I don't want to, you know, I don't want to promise

things that I can't but you know, but it looks like maybe

some clouds and 57°. Oh, I could do that.

So yeah, not not terrible at this point and excited to see

who who ends up entering in the wood, you know, because you like

you said, we might have Rodriguez potentially come over

from California. Certainly it looks like a Grande

for top Pletcher is probably going to be up here as well.

So, you know, uphill Rd. for Chad Brown is probably going to

be up here. So, you know, maybe Chancer

Macpatrick even, although that's probably more likely the

bluegrass, but we'll we'll see. It's it's going to be a lot of

fun to see who we end up with in this field.

Please, Matthew DeSantis, that failed the menace on the

socials, go find him there. Naira bets, of course, and that

and IRA bets for everything that he's working on.

He's the man in the hat. Matthew.

We appreciate you, buddy. I'll see you next week.

There you go. He's Matthew DeSantis, joined us

here on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight.

We take our friends over at the Kentucky HBPAKYHBP, a.com, get

in with them. All the great features from

around the Commonwealth, all the great people that make our sport

go. We'll wrap up the show with

Brian Nadeau. He sets the morning lines at

Gulfstream Park. We'll talk with Tim about the

late sequence and several of the stakes races at Gulfstream Park.

Lou Urabo with you. We'll be back on the Kentucky

Racing Spotlight after this. Welcome back to the Kentucky

Racing Spotlight on ESPN 680 and One O 5 Seven.

Now here's Louis Rebeau. And Speaking of racing, we

talked now with Brian Nadeau. He set some warning lines and

he's on the set of the simulcast down there at Gulfstream Park,

kind enough to join us ahead of tomorrow's 100 point Florida

Derby, the grade one of Florida Derby.

And Brian, last time we talked, we couldn't figure out if

sovereignty was going to want to run or not.

And boy, did he ever want to run last out there in the Fountain

of Youth. How are you, man?

Yeah, really good to talk to you.

I'm. I'm good.

Yeah. Boy, was that a Tour de force in

the Fountain of Youth. So certainly front and center

and Saturdays curling, Florida Derby to wrap up while Sunday

wraps it up. But you know, kind of put a bow

on the championship meet down here and there ain't no deny.

And the race goes through him, that is for sure.

That's right, he'll break from the outside in the Florida Derby

and just a really unusual and unlucky run of jockey health

down there. Unfortunately, between Junior

Alvarado and of course, a guy that we got, we've gotten to

know really well over the years up here in in Tyler Gaffe, Leon,

maybe Franco's going to be in to ride sovereignty.

And there's always questions Brian with a with a horse that

likes to come from off the pace like a sovereignty.

Can a new jock climate with him do those kinds of things?

Is this the kind of case where frankly, he's just the better

horse? And look, we're talking about

Manny Frankel. This is still a high level

professional jockey. We're not talking about, you

know, taking a huge step down from junior, but is that at all

a concern for you? No, not really.

He's won a Florida Derby actually before with, you know,

a little bit ago with his law. So he knows it.

Well, I thought it was a little surprising maybe they didn't go

locally, Louis with, you know, someone that rides on a day in

day out basis here. Yeah, but he's had a lot of

success for good Dolphin and wrote a champion for them last

year and immersive. So, you know, they leaned that

way and you know, the flow of the race seems to point to

sovereignty. He's so much the best horse.

But you know, the weird thing is we talked entering the fountain

of youth how how cranked Sovereignty was.

And I don't think he was all that crank.

And he won for fun. And oddly enough, that's the

that's the question on Saturday. How, how, how cranked is he?

Because obviously we love our Derby, but this is not the

Derby. So it'll be interesting.

You know, he still has a huge pedigree and it's not won a

grade one race. So, you know, and it's

$1,000,000 and it's damn important.

So the race just so so goes through him for several several.

Different reasons. What I've actually the point

that I've been making on on different shows this week is if

this were a grade 2 Louisiana Derby, I think a dolphin would

think of it differently. But because it is that Grade 1

Florida Derby, right? I, I think that you know, for

them, for breeding purposes as a home bred for them, this makes

sense to me that they'd be they'd be cranked for a grade

one and then, hey, if he wins the Derby, he wins.

But boy, 20 horses. Who knows what can happen at

Louisville? Yeah, I think that's a great

point too. And they're, they're, they're

so, you know, into breeding and it's so important.

He's got such a huge pedigree. So I, I, I feel pretty strongly.

He's ready to roll on Saturday. We see a Bob Baffert ship here

first time in a while. We also see a Mike Smith ship

here. I thought actually I was, I was

actually excited for Tyler to ride Maticot Rd.

So this really does throw me off as far as my analysis of this

race. But this is a horse that ran

really well on the Rebel. No one's touching Cold Battle as

of late. We'll see tomorrow in the

Arkansas Derby up in in Hot Springs.

But there's a horse that comes in wasn't quite ready for the

the Roger for the Robert B Lewis, excuse me, does run

really well in the Rebel. What do you expect his tactics

to be tomorrow and do you think he can get up?

You don't get second or third and get in the starting game.

Well, Mike Smith's never seen a supersonic pace that he doesn't

want to be a part of, so I would expect those horses rolling

early on Saturday. I know they did take the

blinkers off, but you know, you saw him going 45 and three in

the Rebel I and it's Bob Baffert.

Bob Baffert doesn't take train horses to come from off the

pace. You know, speed is the weapon

here. It's some California speed as

well. And I would expect him to be

definitely, if not on the lead involved, to be sure.

I expect a pretty hot pace in this Derby on Saturday.

Madiket Rd. of course out of the SF Racing Connections, Authentic

and lots of other great horses as well that have gone on the

great things. I talked to trader Brad Cox on

Blood Horse Monday this week and he I was a caught off guard and

how upbeat he was about Tappan St. and obviously an interesting

pattern with this horse. They run him, you know, at the

end of last year at a 2 year old maiden, he wins.

That comes back in the Holy Bowl.

Brian, there was a moment where I thought he was going to win

that race. Burnham Square, the best horse

that weekend, frankly, in in winning that Holy Bowl.

Great works at Payson. No stunner here.

Brad Cox picks us off right. Yeah, not at all.

I think he's kind of actually coming in a little bit under the

radar too. Chapman St.

This is a pattern. You know, White of Ario did

this. He skipped the Fountain of Youth

after winning the Holy Ball and dominated in the Florida Derby.

So Captain St's got to step up. He's got to improve.

But after two starts and and a very lightly race campaign,

obviously in a fresh horse, he's eligible to do that on Saturday.

And you're right, he ran very, very well in the Holy Ball

behind Burnham Square, so you can't take anything away from

him. He's also a horse that on paper,

Louis is supposed to trip out quite nicely in this race

because he doesn't need to be involved early.

He can take back a little bit and see what's happening and

then make the run off the far turn.

Trying to do with us from down there, Gulfstream Park, Grade 1

Florida Derby tomorrow, a hunter pointer for the Kentucky Derby

on the trail there. Disruptors in this race as well.

I read Ortiz and Todd Pletcher, a very impressive winner over 7

furlongs last out there at the beginning of the month.

These are never accidental placements by a Todd Pletcher.

I really believe that. Obviously the pedigree the the

the gun runner on the sire side. A little bit of question on the

damn side, of course with the spikes town, but one that should

be able to get the distance. What do you expect disruptor to

try to do what we try to see that early pace again, do you

think? I mean it, it looks that way,

right? He's he's chasing and and 44 and

two last time he's on the lead dueling and 45 and three he's

never taken back. I don't know why they would do

that on Saturday when speed seems to be his his weapon.

Well, boy, it's just it's a lot Louis and I don't want to speak

for the connections, but the the the chips have kind of been

pushed all in here. The barn Todd is this is not

his. Let's just be honest.

I think we can all agree this is not the best year for Todd.

In terms of three-year olds, he'll probably have some late

developing 3 year olds. But in terms of getting to the

Kentucky Derby, the days are peeling off the calendar pretty

quickly and he's not left with a lot of bullets.

And he's got a Grande who I think is probably his best

horse, Disruptor. Now, to be perfectly fair to,

when you win by over 9 lengths and you have a three-year old

that's by gun runner, what are you going to do?

You going to wait for a 1X? I mean, come on, let's be honest

here. So they have to run in this

race. It doesn't mean maybe it doesn't

mean they're going to win this race.

I just, it's a lot to me and it's too much too soon.

I'm I'm willing to side against Disruptor and you know, I've

already mentioned the flow of this race.

I don't think it's going to flatter him either.

Sovereignty your top pick here. I'm going to take a real dumb

stab with Jimmy'z dailies. I'm going to use I'm going to

use 3A's really tapping St. sovereignty and Jimmy'z dailies.

He he didn't have a fair goal of it behind Grande.

Last time he was facing winners, he was trying two turns and he

he unfortunately was the inside speed with a really nice horse

for Todd, pressing him the entire way and he held nicely to

be second. He's not going to be on the lead

on Saturday. It was 9 furlongs in that race.

He's got that little feather in his cap.

He's got it for my money. Jill Rosario, you can say a lot

of different things about him, but he's a phenomenal, tough

finishing rider that can drag horses home and oh, by the way,

he's going to be 12 or 15 to one.

So that's what I'm what I'm doing there.

You know, Sovereignty ran A1 on the thorough graphs.

If he even sniffs that again, he'll laugh.

This field, you know, somebody's got to really, really improve.

Like I said, those are the three I'm going to use and I'm as much

with them as I am playing against sources like Disruptor

and certainly not a Cat Rd. Jimmy's dailies, of course, out

of the Brian Lynch barn already has Owen Almighty in the Derby

field. Text on the text line here for

you. Brian on 437-9680 on our UPS

jobs text line. How is the track?

There's been some weather, we've seen them off the turf a little

bit. How is the track?

What are you expecting for both the dirt and the turf tomorrow

for the for the race? Yeah, You know, we took off the

turf on Wednesday and Thursday, you know, and we're fast and

firm. Now the weather could possibly

come into place Sunday. I I hope we're going to be OK

tomorrow. If there's the weather thing

tomorrow, it it, it kind of feels like it's going to be

tomorrow night, not tomorrow racing wise.

So I think we're OK there. The turf to be perfectly honest

with you could have you could needed the rain that we got.

So it'll still be a very fast and very firm turf course on

Saturday. And you know, anybody that's

taken the time to listen to to me and the program knows that

that's been the thing, all meat that fast and firm and front

speed has played. And I don't expect anything

different really on Saturday. Race 9 is the the Gulfstream

Park Oaks. We should mention this as well

with a spot in the Kentucky Oaks up for grabs as well.

The Queens MG at 9 to 55G at 8:00 to 5:00 have Do we have an

update on who's riding 5G tomorrow?

I have not heard as of yet and, and and obviously unfortunately,

Tyler Gaffely on the. The weird thing is since we draw

so early, Tyler and Junior are named all the way through

Sunday, so there's so much bobbing and weaving going on.

I have not heard that yet. It doesn't mean it's not out

there, I just haven't heard it yet.

She's an early speed type. The Queen's MG likes to sit just

off. Do we kind of expect those two

to, to, to dominate this race? Or could like Cassiar?

Could someone like that under Dylan Davis become part of this?

I've never been a Queen, the Queen's MG fan and she got

really all the best of it. And the Devona Dale, she does

not look like A2 turn horse to me.

So I'm all about 5 GS here and what I'm going to try to do is

get maybe a little value underneath of the exact because

I do think Cathy R is interesting.

I didn't really love her Maiden when it came up fast on the

buyers, came up really slow on the thorough graph.

She ran a 12. So I think it remains to be

seen. It was a bit of a blanket finish

too. But hey, this is a Hall of Famer

and Chuck Mcgay, he's saying off of Tampa, all out, Tampa win,

he's going to run in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

I think, you know, you have to sometimes just take things at

face value. That's a lot of confidence from

Chug. So I do think she's interesting.

She's bred to run all day in her pedigree.

And his promise was so good off the claim for Carlos and David

last time. And she's supposed to sit a nice

trip in this race. Short stretch finish line.

But we did back up the starting gate.

So it gives everybody little fairer chance.

But still Lily at the end of the day off the far turn, it's a

quick run to the finish line. I don't think that's going to

flatter the Queens MG and it's certainly going to flatter 5G.

Who is to me, I know it's I know it's happy.

I know it's irad, but I, you know, I was pretty firm in

making 5G the favorite here because the race to me clearly,

clearly goes through hearts. Carlos David has Annas promise

on the outside for Luis Saez. Is she going to be OK from the

seven? Yeah, yeah, that's OK.

She's got the speed to get involved, especially because I

don't think Cassiar is is going to be involved.

And you got 1000 to one in there and what what, what in the

literals, that doesn't really seem to be a pace player either.

The the elephant in the room on Saturday and a lot of these

races and Hannah's Promise is a great horse to just mention it.

A lot of these horses are taking Lasik's off because they're

running in stakes races on Saturday and it's just something

you've got to prove and there's a lot of dressed up horses with

big figures. Actually the great another one

is Paradise City. She completely blows up what

Lasik's added last time. She's got to prove she can run

just as good without it. She's the one horse in there.

So that is a lot of stakes on Saturday for the three-year

olds. You're going to see Lasik's

coming off and I, I don't have a, I can't tell you who's going

to be good and who's going to be not, but I can tell you it's a,

it's a thing. There's no doubt about that.

Earlier in the car to Brian Nadeau with us from Gulfstream

Park is the ghost effort. It's race 7, it's a grade 3.

We see why Debarrio adhere and Brian, I try not to get involved

in the in the horse racing Twitter sort of disputes and

different things because I tend to be a rather positive person

and horse racing Twitter is not a positive place.

Why Debarrio is in here. Obviously, he won a grade one

earlier this year in the Pegasus World Cup by a billion lengths.

And people, people are questioning why he's in this

spot. To me, it's simply, hey, get him

back out there, get him in a race, you know, set him up for

either, you know, trips to Saratoga, whatever it might be.

Are are you critical of them running them in this spot or do

you think it makes sense? Not in the least.

I never understood why people tell think they have the right

to tell people where to run their horses or where.

No, they spend the rest of the year telling us no one runs

their horses. Like, hey, shut up, what about

the horses? Yeah, that's a great, Yeah,

that's a great. That's a great, great point as

well. Listen, they said shortly after

the the the Pegasus, they didn't want to go to Dubai, OK?

The goal was the races like the Met Mile and the Whitney and

stuff. And this is a great spot to get

him ready for those races. They don't want to run in a race

like the Met Mile off the bench. OK?

So now they've got a perfect trap.

Oh, by the way, he lives 40 feet away.

Why do we want to? It's dumb to question it because

why would they want to ship to Oakland Park?

They don't. It's going to sound dumb.

They don't care about the money, OK and.

I get it. You know, and I don't mean that

in a negative way. The horse is made.

They're trying to be horse of the year.

And it's a big and exactly. And you know, I'm not a Twitter

guy. Louie and I post stuff my pics

on there and that that's it. I try to see if we can get Pork

Porter Moser to Villanova, and that's about all I do on

Twitter. But yeah, so but you he's

running on Florida Derby day. He's the best horse in the

country. Like golf.

Clap for it and and be quiet. I mean, come on.

Power squeezes in here. Are you surprised she keeps

running against the boys? Next question.

I I don't, I don't know. I don't know if she's I don't

know if she's running or not. I don't get it.

She's a damn. She's a damn good horse.

She is. What they're doing, he won the

most historic 3 year old Philly race in the country.

Like what are you doing? I don't get it.

I hope, I hope if she runs on Saturday, I hope everything goes

well and we get to see her in proper races for older Phillies

and mares because she's eligible to be in those proper races and

she's eligible to make a dent. She's the next level behind

Torpedo Anna. So.

I'm with you, Brian Nadeau with us.

I'll get you out of here on this.

Is there a horse in, say, races like 11 through 13 here ahead of

the Florida Derby that can help us with the late ticket?

Is there one that's either a single or a long shot that you

like? Like is Knightsbridge going to

win his race? Like where?

Where should we be looking in the late sequence?

You know, I'll say this, you're allowed to play against

Knightsbridge. I feel like the brilliant, the

brilliance has worn off a little bit.

I'm going to I'm going to come back in race 12 to in our time,

she should have never lost last time.

I don't know who's riding her. I'm going to come back.

You can be very tight late, Louis.

I mean, you've got a horse in race 13, like the major dude

who's supposed to win the Appleton.

If I had advice to everybody listening, my advice is spread

early on the card and you're allowed to play like $5 pick

fours or something late because I think that's not the spot late

where I'm going to be looking for something too funky.

All right, well, he's Brian Nadeau at Brian under score J

under score Nadeau on Twitter. You can find him a capital OTB

as well. Their sheet is really, really

easy to follow and I really love checking that out, especially

for Aqueduct and Gulfstream plays and of course at

Gulfstream Park for all the great stuff happening down there

tomorrow. Say hi to Sam and and Ron and

all the folks down there. Brian, I'm sure we'll catch up.

Are you making it up for the Preakness this year?

What are you doing? To be determined, Blue.

Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, last year I went up and

did the, the, the morning line kind of stuff.

So we'll see if I get up there or not.

But yeah, it's always fun to catch up with you and I

appreciate you having me. Alright, Brian, no problem.

They go. Brian Nadeau down at Gulfstream

Park. Take a quick break here.

Come back, back to hoop stock. We do it next.

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