Louie Misses a Show

All right, welcome to another edition of the Horse Racing

Happy Hour live from Churchill Downs.

I'm Big Mike Endolfo and I'm joined by not Louis Rebeau,

because Louis's in freaking Italy like this.

Sean, you have no idea. Like I am known as the Italian

on this show. Louis, you've seen him like he.

There's not any of him that looks Italian.

Does not strike me as Italian one bit.

Not Italian in the least and he is, he's where I want to be

right now. Like I'd, I'd much rather

change, no offense to you. I'd much rather change places

with Louis and be in Italy and instead of sitting next to Sean

Collins a blood horse. So.

If you want to go, I'll run the show by myself today.

Go ahead and catch a flight. I'll, I'll be, we're already

making plans for us to go next year.

So the, the, the big goal for me is last time we were in Italy,

we started looking at property. I'm 47 years old.

By the time I'm fifty, we will own a house in Italy and the

goal is to eventually live three months out of the year in Italy.

That's that's it. Can I come crash with you for

the Paleo? You can it probably.

We probably won't be living close to Sienna.

It is definitely. That.

And that's, and that's like a like a little tidbit, I guess

about visiting Italy, like just get over there, get to Rome and

then getting around Italy itself, even though it's, it's

big country, but you can fly from Rome to Sicily for like 40

bucks or €40 or whatever it's. Yeah.

It's not bad. So Sean Collins is joining me.

He is from Blood Horse. Sean, you, I think it's always

interesting to kind of talk about how a young guy from

Bethlehem, PA, ends up in horse racing, you know?

So tell us a little bit about your story.

How did you? How did you?

Get here. Well, it's not the path people

usually take. I feel like most people.

You're not a jockey. Yeah, I'm not a jockey.

I outgrew that dream very early. Although I'm very good at the

Champion Jockey Wii game so I'm a multiple time crown winner in

that so I'm pretty sure I could hold my.

Hall of Famer. You know, well, I'm still

Career's still. Going I don't.

Think I've hit the 20 years yet, but But yeah, So, you know, my

introduction to the sport was not from people that were

involved with racing. My best understanding is that at

one point my parents went to a wedding, I think around Sunday

silences, Kentucky Derby, and they just started watching the

Triple Crown each year. And you?

Weren't born. Then no, I wasn't. 10 years

later I came along and so I was just watching the triple. 1989 I

think if I remember. Right, yeah, Sunday silence was

89. I was 99 so just started

watching the Triple Crown races with my parents and my sisters

each year and then eventually Smarty Jones is the first one

I'm ever watching. And then when Barbara came along

in 2006 after he got injured. In the I mean pretty young still

at that point, like 7 years old or whatever not.

Even that probably, I think probably 6 when so when he got

injured, following his injury recovery after the Preakness is

what made me realize there's more horse races than the three

Triple Crown races. You know, there's people in

Louisville. Kentucky, you still haven't

figured that. Out.

I know some. Some of them don't even realize

that the preakness of the bail bond exists too.

There's probably that is some truth to that.

It's. Would race a year for a lot of

people out here, but yeah, just fell in love with it.

Watching it on TV. It took me from the point where

I fell in love with it with Barbara.

It took me 8 years to actually attend the live horse race for

the 1st. Time and your first live horse

race, you were telling me. Was the Haskell stakes.

Actually, back when it was the Haskell invitation was yeah.

You know who won that? Basketball.

It was Byron. It was the one that's pretty

good. Yeah.

And Untappable was in that too. So I saw the Breeders Cup

Classic and Distaff winner in the same.

Race. Wow, that's pretty awesome.

Yeah, so that was pretty cool. And then from there, once I

realized how easy it is to attend races when it's not

Kentucky Derby day. Like, like this Thursday that

we're here. Just walk in on a Thursday here

at Churchill Downs that open the door to me going to the races a

lot over on the East Coast. And then eventually I went to

the University of Louisville Equine Business program cause

didn't know what I wanted to do with my life.

Knew I liked horse racing, found out you could study horse racing

in college and. Voila.

But you really had no idea when you got to U of L what that path

looked like like. No, not at all.

And you even probably graduate from U of L with no idea what

that path looked like. That's correct.

Yeah. I still didn't really know

'cause, you know, a lot of people that were in my program

they're, you know, people that had connections in the industry

already. And so, you know, it felt like

they were getting off to a quicker start than I did.

But so I didn't really know what the future was going to hold for

me. Eventually through that program,

I ended up as a tour guide at the Kentucky Derby Museum.

Yeah, that was, that was a fun experience, being able to teach

people about horse racing every day, being able to show them

what goes on on a race track on a daily basis.

That was pretty. Cool, 'cause people have no

idea. Like, I mean, you know, I'm sure

if you told people that you had a job in horse racing, they'd

look like you'd be like, you have a job in horse racing like

they have. People have no idea how many

jobs support this industry. It's pretty amazing.

When I was first deciding to come to U of L1 of my mom's Co

workers she told him what I was going to school for and he was

like oh that's why on earth would you let him go do that.

There's no jobs in that. Yeah, there's no jobs in that.

You're not going to make any money in that.

That's a stupid career path. But I'd say it worked out so

far. And so many people that came on

the tours, something that we take for granted is just knowing

that there's people and horses on the backside every day.

About 95% of the general public has no idea that horses even

live on the racetrack, which is pretty incredible.

So how do you go from how do you go from the Kentucky Derby

Museum? The Blood horse.

Well. I mean, you don't have a

journalist background. Right.

I do not. I took one.

Well, I took one sports journalism class in college, so

by the way. That's more of a journalism than

I am. There you go.

And I'm a member of the National Turf Fighters or broadcasters

and actually. Will be soon.

So I will be soon. And you know, luckily the my job

at the museum entailed me writing tour scripts.

So I have a little written experience.

But the main thing I think that pushed me over the edge was my

experience with my YouTube channel.

Yeah, I started YouTube channel in 2021.

And so going to a lot of race tracks, starting to, you know,

film races, I think that's what ultimately was kind of the

difference make. Obviously I don't know who I was

up against when I was getting the job, but I think that was

one of the difference makers was my experience there.

And they blood horse was happy enough to take a shot with me.

And I think it's worked out pretty well so far and I'm very

grateful for. That you should definitely check

out Sean's material on Blood Horse.

We were talking a little bit before the show.

I subscribe now because of Sean to they they do it a weekly or

no, I'm sorry, a daily newsletter that comes that's if

I was we were here last week, right, with all the storms and

stuff like that. We were hanging out up in the

boxes and there's a young couple with us that is getting married

with fans of the show. We you know, it's kind of fun to

get up there with some fans of the show and they were asking me

like, hey, man, I'm I'm, you know, listening to Louis on the

radio and now I've started listening to the podcast with

you guys. I really am enjoying this horse

racing thing. How do I learn more?

This newsletter from Blood Blood Horse is a great quick daily

read to just stay up to date on what's going on in racing.

Quick short articles that you're going to learn a ton.

And would you say that Blood Horse though is probably more

geared towards blood stock? I'd say you know that.

Is the name. Right.

Yeah, that is the name. So, you know, obviously we're

going to cover quite a bit of blood stock.

But, you know, part of blood stock is how the horses perform

on the racetrack as well. So, you know, when you have a

horse that wins a grade one, that obviously is going to

increase their breeding value, especially, you know, for a

stallion perspective, but also on the mayor's side of things.

So, you know, we can make sure that we cover every aspect of

the industry, the racing, the sails, the breeding.

We try to make sure we're diving a little bit into each.

Section, but I think that one thing you're going to notice, I

guess in the writings is lots of times they're we'll talk about

those bloodlines that the worst comes from.

So like that's that's a primary focus, I guess, a blood horse.

And so it's a great way to pick up the sport.

If you want to learn more, if you if you are starting to

realize that it's more than just the Kentucky Derby out there.

It's more than just the Triple Crown that, you know, pick it

up, man. It's a a cheap and easy way

'cause it's free, free subscription and usually, you

know, 25 to 30 page, but a lot of that is like, hey, this is

what I actually like. I love how you all breakdown the

race results in the back by stakes races, like here's who

won stakes races, here's who won allowance races and you know all

that other kind of stuff. And so it's.

An easy way to see. All it really is yeah.

And then you they also do a great job of when the entries

come out for the stakes races that are coming up of posting

those. I mean when I asked you to do

the show, I just. I screenshot at the six stakes

races from that Blood Horse newsletter and send it right

over. So yeah, man, really excited to

be here. You you've enjoyed riding then?

Oh, yeah, I've been enjoying it a lot, especially in the last

couple of months now that, you know, the Triple Crown picked

up, being out at the racetrack, talking to people, writing up

about them. It's been, it's been amazing.

Take me through your average day, because are you here, you

know, watching training every morning?

Not every morning anymore. I was in the lead up the Derby

and the week right after Derby I was here 5:00 every morning for

most of April and then pretty much until pretty much until

Mystic Dan left for Pimlico. And then I switched and went

five in the morning at Pimlico every day leading up to the

Preakness. Now that that has subsided and I

was out here at 5:30 yesterday cuz sees the Gray was breezing,

but I'm a little little getting a little more sleep now.

So, you know, I'll come in sometimes maybe around 7:00 or

9:00 depending on the day, or sometimes, like today, I didn't

even come in at all. So catching up on the rest from

last month. Well, you brought him up.

How does seize the Great look? Well, he looked pretty good to

me yesterday. He went on a nice 6 furlong

breeze, I believe in 113 flat. I know Jaime Torres was really

pleased with it. I know Dwayne Lucas was really

pleased with it. When he went by me the first

time, he was already moving, and I usually stand pretty much

right where he started the breeze at the six furlong, 6

furlongs from the wire. And I mean, he was motoring.

And it didn't look like Preakness really took anything

out of him. And I'm not the best expert at

looking at a horse and understanding how they're

moving, but I can tell when one's moving pretty good and he

was moving pretty good. I mean, we were both at that

Preakness. Yeah.

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say that we encouraged

you to go, but or that were the reason that you did go.

But you know, you you first told me that you weren't going and

then you showed up. So I didn't know that maybe you

like, didn't want to hang out with us.

Maybe that might be what it is. Oh, no, I'm not going to be

there, you know. But at the end of the day, like

when he got out to the lead in the Preakness and I'm saying,

OK, well, here's a mild horse. He's gotten out the lead.

He's not going to, he's not going to go keep that distance.

He's not going to be able to keep it up.

And there was a time when when Mystic Dan got basically eye to

eye with him, I thought. He was going to run right by him

on our turn. Picked another gear, man.

It was pretty awesome. And then Jaime, of course, came

on with us last week. And if you didn't see that, just

going through the race with Jaime and stopping it and

talking about what the horse was doing, what he was thinking,

what he was looking at, it was fascinating.

So I highly encourage you to go back and listen to that episode.

You got to talk to Jaime, though, here recently.

You interviewed him so. I've been talking to him a lot.

Yeah, he's great guy, right? He's one of the nicest guys

you'll ever meet. I was lucky enough I had.

The first time I talked to him was actually a week before the

Preakness, right after he got named to be the staying on the

horse for the Preakness. And he was just such a humble

guy, such a hard working guy. It's been fantastic.

Two years racing, he's already got the Pat de Mile and the

Preakness Center. That's a pretty good start to

your career. And he might have the bell

monitors he. Knows man too.

But you know, the thing with him is, you know he wins the

Preakness and he's right back to work, which I mean, a lot of

jockeys are. But you know, the 1st when I

talked to him immediately after the race, that was one of the

first things he mentioned was the fact that he was going to,

he had to get back to work and he had to keep working hard to

make sure now that he's at the top, he stays at the top.

And he, I know when we were here on Thursday last week, a couple

days after that, he was bringing home a couple long shots and

winning, finishing second. He.

Was he won his he won he was a jockey change on a on a race and

won the first race after doing the show and.

With the rainbow in the. Back with the the double

rainbow, which was we could see end to end, which was amazing.

It really was, it was kind of cool.

So you know what? How do you think about how what

you know what? What are your thoughts about how

the Belmont shaped it up? Well, right now, I mean, you

would think Seize the Grey is probably going to be up front.

You have, you know, fierceness is going to be there showing

speed. That's my main question right

now is what exactly is the pace going to look like?

Because we know Sierra Leone is going to be closing.

We know Honor Marie is going to be closing.

We know Mystic Dan, if he runs, which I feel is very likely that

he will, he will be kind of right in behind the leaders.

So to me, it's just a question of what does the does the pace

scenario look like? What does it look like to you?

I mean, I kind of like that's how we were talking about the

Derby. Of course, they're both mile and

a quarter, right. So we, we, I'm always, you know,

if Thorpedo Anna runs, I guess they're not, they're both not

going to run, right. Yeah.

It's one of the, it's one of the other.

And honestly I know he's hinting at it, but if Mystic Dan decides

not to run, I still don't think Thorpedo Anna runs.

He seems really well, at least when I talked to him and this

was a couple weeks ago. But Mcpeak seems really focused

on just trying to get her to win champion 3 year old Philly.

And I think just the fact because if if Mystic Dan doesn't

run, she runs in the Belmont and wins, then what do you do going

forward the rest of the year? I think you might just play it

safe at this point. You have one of the top

three-year old Colts, one of the top three-year old Phillies.

Just keep them apart and maybe try her against the Colts next.

Year So let me throw a couple names that you didn't mention as

you're very nicely showing me exactly who's who's the

probables are right now. And of course, we the field's

going to still shake, shake out like, you know who's probably

right now we don't play the Ohio.

Derby. Yeah, I'm intrigued by the wine,

Stewart, but he's not 100%. He's not 100%, but he was really

racing really well last fall, right?

I'm intrigued about what kind of campaign he can have this year,

let's put it that way. And I like him.

Third off the layoff. I think this will definitely be

a lot better than his previous two.

And I'm very intrigued by Mind Frame because he might have

stole Derby weekend for me, that horse.

We're going to talk about two horses that broke their maidens

this this week here in a little bit.

I guess this might be a pretty good segue to it, but, and if I

have to compare the way Mind Frame looked to the two horses

that are getting a lot of publicity this week about how

they broke their maiden, I'll, I'll take Mind Frame, right?

Now honestly, I would not argue with.

You and I was just blown away. We we kind of Louie and I looked

at each other. It's kind of reminded us of of

Nashville Breeders' Cup weekend in Keeneland and Nashville just

looked great. Of course, he didn't really do

much after that. He had some issues and whatever

else but I'm I'm really thinking mind now this.

This seems like a huge step up though for mind frame.

And where do you think he would sit pace wise?

Because the problem is with Fletcher looks like he might

have a couple of them, so you got to keep them apart so.

Well, and I guess, you know, at this point, like we were kind of

surprised that the the way, and we talked about this with Jaime

that the way sees the Gray one. The Preakness was not the way he

won the Pat Day Mile. I mean, he stalked in the Pat

Day Mile and. I think a lot of that had to do

with the muddy racetrack because you know, they, I know he broke

his maiden going wire to wire on the mud.

I know Jaime has said that, you know, he seems to take to the

mud really well. And so I think that was a big

player on them going to the lead.

And if it's a dry race track, I don't.

And depending on post positions, I'm not sure they're necessarily

going to go for that. But at the same time, like

Jaime, I think he knows his horse had a little bit more and

the promise he could have gone the extra distance, which is not

much. He saw his horse respond down

the stretch he was. He was able to control the pace

from upfront. I don't door knock, might go

upfront. I mean, who?

Who up here is going to, who else is going to really go?

I think with door knock is just, you know, everybody expected him

to be upfront in the Derby and he just didn't break.

I feel like he didn't break fast enough.

I just don't know if he's a fast enough breaker with these kind

of horses to be able to be up there.

But I mean it depends on where he ends up drawing in the post

position. But that door closed very

quickly on him from the rail. It's kind of funny to me because

not, not to the severity, but we're going to see a horse race

here on Saturday, Cabbage Rice, who last year this time was

talking about how immature the horse was.

We've got a lot of horses in this races with some maturity

issues. I mean they're not again, not as

severe I think is what Taba trice.

But it seems like more than usual are having question marks.

About right, and you don't really know what you're going to

get out of them. And then honestly, out of all

those horses, you feel the most confident about what you're

going to get out of Seize the Gray out of anyone else, because

he's probably been the most consistent.

Nothing taking away nothing for Mystic Dan, who's put together 2

great performances back-to-back. And you could throw you, I guess

you could still even throw the Arkansas Derby in there and put

three races back-to-back. But it's going to be

fascinating. I think that we're going to get

a good field. We're going to get quality

horses. I think that the ownership of

Sierra Leone thinks that he's probably the one to beat in this

thing. I thought, I'm sure that

fierceness feels that way. And and if you're following me

every other with fierceness, I just don't know about that

horseman. There's sometimes that horse

looks about as good as he can. There's sometimes like he has no

excuses. I.

Made the comment right at the probably within 5 minutes after

winning the Florida Derby I tweeted out he's going to lose

the Derby by over 10 and win the Belmont by 50.

And just because that's that's his the way he goes.

So if he runs huge on or next Saturday, I won't be shocked by

it. But at the same time, I feel

like now that he's kind of stepped up to where he's going

to be constantly seeing the best of the division, starting to

wonder whether or not he's actually going to be able to

keep up with the nesting mature. As a betting race, this race is

going to be fantastic, I mean, because you're going to get some

really good prices on some really good horses.

And Sierra Leone's probably going to be the clear favorite,

but you can't necessarily trust he's going to get the trip, so

there's reason to bet. Against and then even if Sierra

Leone's going to be the clear favorite, Misty Dan and Sees the

Gray are probably the second and third choice.

So you could get something like 8 to one off fierceness.

Is that out of the question? I don't think so.

I mean 8:00 to 1:10 to 1:00. Get up there especially, you

know, a lot of people are going to jump off with him after the

Derby, so you know. I wonder what kind it's going to

be interesting, like what kind of number of monitoring gets?

He's going to get bet by a lot of the people that follow

racing. The question is going to be how

much money is going to not come in on him from the people who

just tune in for that race. That's true, yeah.

So I think I think he'd probably be in the solid maybe 10 to 15

to one race. Yeah, I think he's probably more

15 to 20. You think?

Yeah. I mean, just because there's

going to be so many other horses here that are going to take

money. I mean, it's, it's when you look

at this, I mean, I still think Tuscan goal could probably take

some money. And I I'm, I'm not a believer in

that. Horse at all.

I'm not really either, but you know, a lot of people are going

to look at the fact he just didn't like the mud.

And if you like him in the Preakness, if you look at that

fact and it's a dry race track in the Belmont, you're probably

still going to like him in the Belmont.

So, so that's how that's shaping up.

We'll have more coverage coming into it.

Yeah, it should be a great race. It really should.

And I mean, a lot of people were concerned about a dropping in

distance, but I feel like we got a lot better feel than a mile

and a quarter than we might have gotten at a mile and A.

Half, yeah, I mean, and and that's actually something to

really think about too, because when you when you look at a mile

and a half race, I mean as a trainer and you've got this

potential multi $1,000,000 investment in front of you,

that's a big risk to has a horse to go on, on the dirt.

Do you? Think Mystic Dan would be on the

table for a mile and 1/2 after losing the Preakness versus he

is at a mile and a quarter. So yeah, it's a great point add

some intrigue. You know, sees the Gray would be

there anyway because it's Lucas, but.

You're also getting it on a track where it's like, OK, maybe

we're in the showers, maybe we're looking at the hats, but

like it's going to it's this is so fascinating because it's

going to really help map out where these horses are going to

go going forward. And so this is what we talked

about on the show a lot. One of the things I love about

racing is that we're kind of coming to the end of Triple

Crown season and we're going full-fledged in the Breeders Cup

season and these three-year olds are figuring out their patch of

the Breeders Cup. Is it at the classic distance?

Is it at the mile distance? Is it at a Sprint distance,

which we've seen before? Is it on the turf?

And that, you know, after we get this race, there's we've got

some other big three-year old races coming up.

We got all the the mid major derbies.

You know, Louis and I will be out the Indiana Derby.

You're going to be the Indian. Derby.

I'm going to. Try to be absolutely.

I'll go into that one each year. And then we're going to you're,

you're going to things see things like the Haskell, you're

going to see the, the, the Travers and all those kind of

great races. And we're going to.

You got to shout out to Pennsylvania Derby myself too.

Are you a big? Yeah, That's that's you're.

I go home for that every year. It's really kind of uniquely

positioned and because of where it's positioned on the calendar,

they've they've had a lot of really good horses come.

Through they have, yeah, that was I mentioned earlier.

The first race I went to was the Haskell.

My second race was that Pennsylvania Derby where Byron

and he ended up beating California Chrome in that race.

There you go. That was really, I feel like a

couple years before that when We'll Take Charge went the year

before that in 2013 forward. That race is starting to draw

some really good horses. Nice.

All right, so, so let's talk about those two horses that we

saw break their making. You were here for one of them

World record. What was your thoughts?

I mean, he looked pretty good. You know, he broke well from the

inside. He didn't really, in my opinion,

he didn't really get much pressure.

But when a horse didn't get pressure, he did exactly what he

was supposed to do in that scenario.

He ended up winning by I think 7 quarter lengths.

You know, he ran. I went back and watched his

replay of his debut afterwards. He got, you know, kind of out

sprinted early. I think just the distance was a

little too short for him maybe, but he still came running on and

almost won that race, comes back, wins second time out.

So I think he's definitely a horse with the future.

It's just my question is what distance is that future going to

be at? Yeah, that'll be that'll be.

I mean, it is a gun Runner, right.

So I feel like right now Gun Runner's been such an amazing

sire, right. So like anytime there's a gun

Runner that shows any kind of promise, like as a quick and

this is not I'm not trying to besmirch this horse.

OK, this this horse might be fantastic.

And the same thing goes with Eagle's flight.

OK, Eagle, they might Eagle's flight might be a great horse.

Eagle's flight is not flight line.

Let's just let's let's pump the brakes a little bit, right.

He looked very good in his debut, ran completely.

He did he and actually showed we were talking about immature

horses. Yeah, that horse actually showed

a ton of. Well, do you see the picture

afterwards with the half of his shoe hanging off his hoof?

No. Yeah, really.

Yeah, I think it was the right front.

It was one of the front feet. About half of his shoe was bent

and hanging off of it. And so let me see if I can find

the picture for you. So that might have had something

to do on how green he was in the stretch he.

He definitely didn't go out front and stay out front and win

by open lengths like Flightline did in his debut. 6 furlongs for

both those races. When when he broke slow out of

the gate, I was watching the race with my girlfriend and I

told her I was like, Yep, he's done.

And then he ended up winning. So obviously he's a good horse.

He was able to overcome that, but he did not break anywhere

near what. Look at that.

Look at that shoe hanging out. That was crazy, man.

Yeah, so you know, could maybe he is going to be the stud the.

Question is, when did he do that?

Was it during the race? Was it at the start and that's

why he broke bad? But I mean, the fact that he won

anyway is, you know, a great testament to how good he could

potentially be. But I agree, he's no flight

line, at least yet. And the part that concerns me is

the other half brother that debuted earlier this year, he

didn't really run that well at all and his couple starts.

So it's going to be hard to replicate.

Yeah, we'll see. It's going to be hard to

replicate being flight line, but that doesn't mean he's not going

to be a good horse, a grade one winning horse or something like

that. And, and at the same time, like,

I wonder what they're going to do with them as far as like how

they're so careful with flight lines, you know, race schedule

and not overrunning him. And you know, we only saw him a

couple times in two years, but being at that breeder schedule

was amazing. It was.

Unbelievable. Honestly, one of the greatest

moments that I've ever had on the racetrack was not watching

him win the Classic. It was a few mornings before I

was watching him when he came out onto the track to train and

he was just standing there. He wasn't doing anything yet.

He hadn't started his exercise. And he just stood there and

like, I just took a moment like looking at him and you could

almost feel the greatness coming off of him and how special of a

horse that he was. So that was a pretty cool

moment. I need to go stand by Eagles

Flight and see whether or not I get the same feeling and let you

know. You got to wonder like where

these two horses are going to go point for the rest of the

summer. We were just talking all these

great three-year old races. Pennsylvania Derby could be a

great spot for both of these horses.

Well, maybe not for Eagles Flight because of the California

thing, but you know. Well, you know, if you in

California at that time in September, you know you're going

to have that California crown coming up.

If you don't feel like he's ready to take on older horses

yet, you might look at that as an option.

You know you'd have to. Shipping horses just so much

different now than it was like it was.

So it was so much better three or four, you're right, but was

actually right before COVID and just seems like after COVID,

shipping horses has just been whole different ball game.

It's kind of worse, but you would think it would get better

because of technology and whatever else, but it's been

it's a lot tougher. I don't know how that's going

to. So out of the two, who do you

think is going to have the better career?

All right, let me ask you this. We'll put the over under at at

at a half a half a horse. Do we see either one of these

horses run in Delmar at the Breeders Cup?

No, OK, I'm going to. I'm going to say no on that.

One. OK, what about in 2025?

Yes, for one of. Them for one of them.

OK, you want to guess who? Which one?

I'm actually going to go with World Record.

OK, Yeah, All right. Well, I mean, because if but if

Eagles Flight wins a Breeders' Cup race, like what's that

Stutchy going to be? It's insane.

Right. So absolutely insane.

Yeah, Yeah. So it's always going to be

something to watch. Now we'd kind of mentioned, you

mentioned your favorite moment on the track, My favorite moment

on the track. It was actually, I was here non

Derby moment for sure. But being here for the Breeders

Cup when blame beat Senyata and it was probably the most

electric I've ever felt this place.

It was unbelievable. And we're going to get the blame

Stakes this weekend as we look at Churchill Downs and the the

racing that's going to happen here. 6 great stakes races on

the card Saturday, the Stephen Foster Preview Day.

So the lot of these horses will try to run on Stephen Foster

Day. And you know, we're going to

get, I'm pulling up my stuff right here too, but we're going

to we're going to kick it off actually with race 6 and it is

the Arlington. This is a grade 3 turf race, 8

1/2 furlongs. So that's just again, 8 1/2

furlongs is a is a furlong is 8 furlongs.

So it's just over a mile $275,000 purse.

We're talking too, like the purse is here.

Churchill Downs compared to it's unbelievable.

Four year old up, four years old and up race here.

What? Which horses here kind of stand

out for you in this race? Honestly, in this race, I feel

like on a class edge, Ottoman Fleet and Emmanuel are the two

horses that are kind of standing out.

Emmanuel has run a bunch of grade one races and so, you

know, obviously he's got that class edge, he's coming out.

I believe that the. That is the the motto of the

show, by the way. Class going class, Yeah.

I mean so. So that's what we're saying

here, a manual class going class.

Oh, general thoughts on this turf course, though, so far of

what? How it's held up because I think

it surprised people. It it surprised me honestly, and

this was one of the interesting parts of, you know, being a tour

guide here every day for the last couple of years was

watching the status of the turf course for when they ripped it

up in 2021. But in my opinion, it looks

better at this point in the year than it has in any of the

previous couple of years. I think part of that might be

we've had quite a few rainy days where we've come off the turf.

So I think that's helped lessen the load a little bit.

And you know, they're they're seem like they're doing a good

job. They did something different

with it over the winter this year where they I know they had

a bunch of like kind of heating tarps.

So I don't know if they were actually heating the track, but

they were holding more heat in try to try to keep the grass

growing. And there was a one point before

Derby where I thought it didn't look that great.

And then all of a sudden by Derby time it looked like it had

come together. So it seems like it's holding up

well. I've had I remember talking to

Chad Brown right after the Derby the next morning and he said

that he thought that the turf course actually performed pretty

well. So you know, it was a couple

weeks ago now, but I think the problems that it's had the last

couple years I think so far have been pushed away for this year.

We'll see. We obviously we still got

several more months to go, but. We'll see how.

Yeah. I mean, I think there'd be some

people actually be kind of surprised that we were running

turf courses of June. I mean, it's that's not, I'm not

trying to besmirch Churchill Downs in any way, shape or form.

That's just the reality of it. And I would say that I've been

surprised about. It's been fair, you know, It

doesn't seem like it's. Bring one over the.

Other yeah. So I think at the end of the

day, this has been, it's been, it's been a pleasant surprise, I

guess at this week, so. But the other part of it, too is

you don't always know which horses are going to like it,

which horses aren't going to like.

So, you know, we just talked about Emmanuel and Ottoman

fleet. One of them could easily show up

on this course and decide that it's not to their liking and

we're going to have a long shot coming.

So this is a a race in where you're looking like you're

either going to play it very short on your in a multi

sequence or you're going to maybe spread a little bit and

hope for a price. Yeah.

And the price that I kind of like a little bit is stitched.

Before you can't go wrong with Tyler Churchill.

Yeah, you can't go wrong with Tyler.

This was a horse that he upset the Wise Dance Stakes last year

when it was at Ellis Park at odds of 46 to one and he kind of

caught my eye at that point. He followed that up with a front

running effort in the mid million and ran pretty solid

second. He almost got, he almost won

that race. I think he got caught right at

the end and then it seemed like he went a little off form to the

end of last year. He came back on Derby Day or a

couple days before Derby Day in the opening verse.

And I just think that, you know, if he finished 7th, I think now

with that race under his belt, I think he could possibly make

some noise this weekend. OK, well there it is.

There it is. And so stitched as a long shot

play, we don't have any odds yet.

It's a little still a little early.

So you know, you might get a good price on Stitch I'm.

Hoping he goes back up to 40 something to one.

That'd be nice. Yeah, there.

You go, there you go. OK, I got to move on to the next

one, which is the Airstat stakes.

Of course Airstat is the. Was it the 1st?

Is it the? First Kentucky Derby winner and

he is finally much deserved getting inducted into the Hall

of Fame this year. Just this year.

Just this year, the historic Review committee went back, and

I think part of it's because there was a fantastic book that

came out about the first Kentucky Derby and Aristides

career last year. I think that kind of helped give

that final push. He's a lot better than people

give him credit for, that's for sure.

All right, we got some. This is a race here.

It's going to be a six furlong Sprint on the dirt, $275,000

purse, another race for four year olds and up.

We're going to see some horses that are no stranger to

Churchill Downs, the horse Lake Tejano choices of this race.

Bourbon Heights is in this race. Hear Me song.

I mean, there's there. There's a lot of these names

that I recognize. Who are you looking forward to

seeing? Him.

Well, I think this race, at least for me, I think this one's

already a done deal. This is your single.

Huh. Yeah, this is my single and I

would be Skelly now. Third back, third race back from

Saudi Arabia, unless he just doesn't take to the track or he

bounces his two. His races before Saudi Arabia

were fantastic, his race in Saudi Arabia, even though he

lost, was pretty good and his two races back from Saudi Arabia

have been fantastic. Which is unusual, right?

Like we, we talked about that all the time in the show that

the horses that kind of go to the Middle East, when they come

back, it's it usually takes him a little.

Bit and he came back quick. He ran that race in Saudi on

February 24th. His next race was April 13th and

he was able to you know, he's a speed horse and so you would

think maybe that trip would take a little out of him didn't seem

like it did it all. So if this was his first race

coming back from Saudi, I would probably bet against him because

you don't know what he's going to do.

But third race back, I just think this horse is he's going

to be one of the favorites I think from the Sprint division

all year when we head towards the Breeders Cup.

So no reason to get off his bandwagon now.

This is another version. This is a listed stakes.

This is not a greatest stakes. This is another example of just

how great the purses and the horses that you're getting here.

I didn't list stakes. We're looking at a horse that is

like Skelly that is actually we do have odds that's going off at

4:00 to 5:00. You want to tell you the odds in

the last race, by the way? Yeah.

Might as well. All right, so I got on stitch.

20 to one right now on stitch, so manual at 3:00 to 1:00 and

then. Everybody forget that I said

something good about him, so he ought to stay up there.

Yeah, that's. Right.

But you know, you're still going to price on on A twist at 5:00

to 1:00. But Skelly, four to five is the

number right now, and that is for our man Steve Asmussen.

I like Hear Me Song to be a good kind of finishing up the exacta.

I had this volume down. So like you don't know this

story, all right. So like we have a sound when we

say when we say Steve as what's his name?

Because dude, before he was the all time winning trainer,

everyone called him Asmussen. And then all of a sudden people

started saying his name, right? So like we actually last year

the Preakness got Steve Asmussen to say his last name the way

that we say on the show. We always say Steve there it is.

All right, so Steve all right, Ricardo Santana, fantastic

housewife Ricardo Santana on board of Skelly and that one and

we'll see. I was very proud of myself.

By the way, Dan Illman knows that I'm not the the the I'm not

the handicapper of the show, right Louis the handicapper, if

you want these picks, I'm sure Louis probably still going to

release picks. Maybe maybe he is, maybe he

isn't. Maybe he's going to, you know,

put picks out from Italy. Maybe he's not He's.

On vacation. Right, he's on vacation, but

listen, he still wants to. So I took it as a challenge and

Memorial Day I, I sent him in my pics and I was like, here, I'm

going to, I'm going to handicap the card.

And you know, most of those handicappers, they do four

horses a race, right? That's kind of the, you know,

the standard, the standard I had and then you put your but I had

I had three up front winners. So like three of the my first

choices were winners, I had winners.

And do we have 8 races or nine races?

Nine races. All right, I had winners and and

six out of nine races. There you go.

And. What am I giving my?

Tips and we need to well, no and my one single I did actually

went and on one race I didn't I gave one horse and that was you

know, I hit the I hit the my one single for sure.

So and. You didn't pass any of these

tips along to me. When?

I did not, no, but that's OK. I mean, we're here and we're

talking about the horses and I'm just, I'm just saying your

skelly here is going to be that same way.

Yeah, we're going to get that. Build my ticket around him.

But you would. It's also to show that Dan and

Louis, I've learned a lot from you guys.

So there you go. The Shawnee Stakes is the next

race. This is race 8.

This is a grade three $275,000 race.

Mom, the 16th on the dirt for Phillies and mares 4 years old

and up. We're getting a lot of older

horse races here. This was kind of funny.

They call I'm. Sorry, idiomatics.

Yeah, that's right. We kind of talked about the the

this is Stephen Foster preview day and it is for the Stephen

Foster. We have a lot of older horses

run today and there's a lot of three-year old races on Stephen

Foster day. So in this case, we're going to

see some horses that definitely are going to show some and we're

going to get a maybe another stud.

But and you got hidden connection.

This is like to me, like we loved a lot of these horses as

two year olds, Oaks, these Oaks horses, and they maybe didn't do

as much. Obviously Shaguera is a freaking

star in this race. Who's your Philly hidden

connection? Wet paint.

And of course, if it's a wet track, then wet paint.

It's a great selection here. So did you go hard on Shaguera

here or do you think Shaguera is vulnerable?

I don't know. I don't know what to think about

her last race because, you know, she came back, she was dominant

at the end of last year and I thought she was going to be, you

know, one of the top horses in the Distaff division this year.

And then, you know, was the last race on on Oaks day the La Troy

Anne? Was it because of?

The which is one of our favorite races, by the way, here on the

show. Yeah.

Was it because of the muddy racetrack?

Was it because of the layoff? She got beat 39 lengths.

She got in that race. But yeah, she, I mean, they

pulled her up, right? I mean.

They, they just, they just gave up, you know, turning for home

because they knew they knew they were going to finish last at.

That save your horse. Yeah, so that's the good thing

is that she they did save her for this spot.

But the question mark for me is what was the reason for that

spot? The fact that she she comes back

in a month is to me is makes me optimistic means that physically

nothing was wrong with her. So I'm hoping it's just the the

muddy racetrack that ended up kind of causing that

performance. But I'm excited to see what she

does. She'll definitely probably be my

number one pick in this race because I'm hoping she bounces

back. But Cilla is one that I've had

my eye on for a long time now. I was at her debut last year and

excited to see how she performs here against some real greatest

Stakes horses. We saw Sila on Derby day this

year run in the Yep of one O 5 Equibase speed figure here in

that dirt mile in an allowance optional claiming race.

Going a little bit extra distance here, but probably not

an issue. Probably not an issue for

pedigree. I believe she's, I want to say a

full the Tacitus who won the Wood Memorial a couple years ago

and so she's got the pedigree to go longer.

My main concern is just her one time where she did face Greatest

Eggs Company, she got beat and she wasn't really close to

winning that race either. And one of the horses that beat

her was Hidden Connection who comes back to this race.

So this will be a good test to see exactly where she stands.

She came back, she got that allowance victory, get the

confidence back up and now we'll know whether or not she's going

to be a player in the Distaff division or not after this race.

And she lost a raging see and hidden connection at Keeneland

on April 19th. It's kind of funny.

I'm not a I'm one of these people who think that horses

that don't want Runwell Keeneland doesn't.

I don't know how well Keeneland typically translates the success

of Churchill in the 1st place so.

I would agree with that. You see a lot of random results

sometimes that Keeneland that don't translate over here.

Exactly. Yeah.

So Cilla, there is the choice that our man Sean is going with.

OK, we're going to move to the three-year old Phillies.

This is the regret stakes. It is a mile and an eighth on

the turf. And again, 3 year old Phillies,

who did you like in this one? Well I've been a big Boogoo fan

since she won the jessamine at Keene one last year as a 2 year

old. Could be a big day for Rigney

and Bauer potentially if those two run well.

And I think they have one one of the other races, so it could be

a big day for them. So you're liking all these

horses who did not run well in the mud and got beat on Oaks

Day? Is that what?

It is pretty much given we're. Not seeing a theme here.

Yeah. Well, it's staying with that

theme. The other one that I really like

in this spot is everyone. She's coming out of the Oaks

itself and you know, she ran very well on the Synthetica turf

way over the winter. She ran I think a sneaky good

race in the Oaks to finish 5th and they're of 40 something to

one and she comes back here now she's back on.

She'll get a price on this horse, by the way.

Yeah. Well, 20 to 120 to one, I'll

take that. You know, she's now trying turf,

which I think she ran on turf early in her career and I don't

think it went well. I'm going to chalk that one up

to hopefully just, you know, starting off the career.

But she ran really well on the synthetic.

If she can transfer that over, I think this, especially breaking

from, I believe post #2 she's going to have the opportunity to

maybe go up there, be part of the pace and maybe take them all

the way. And so I hope you everyone here

who's not maybe in as in tune to horse racing is understand the

pattern of what's going on. We had obviously the big weekend

of Oaks and Derby day, the horses at ran Oaks and Derby Day

and neither the top level allowance races or in the stakes

races are coming back this weekend.

This is their big weekend. And then they'll be followed up

by the last weekend of the meet in that Stephen Foster weekend.

So I. This race to me could could be

pretty wide open and like you said, if we had a.

Long shot winner that paid like close to $100.

I would not be shocked. Yeah, there you go.

All right, we're going to move on now to the blame, which is

the precursor for the Stephen Foster.

This is for four year olds and up a mile an eighth on the dirt.

We're going to going to see Tabatrice that we mentioned

earlier. We're going to see classic

Cosway come back, although it's going to be that big number.

He will not be. There other they still got.

Well, he ran on Monday. So oh, OK, well, there you go.

Scratch he. He and Uncle Jake both ran an

allowance on Monday and they scratched.

I was actually. Sure.

I picked Uncle Jake in the race, I think.

Yeah. Uncle Jake was going to be one

of my top picks in this race and I'm glad he ran on Monday

because he did not run as well on Monday, so I avoided that

one. So we basically thinking of this

is going to be like the Tabatrice or are you having Hope

for War campaign on Falls? Tappet Trice is one of those

horses that last year, you know, he had so much hype on him going

into the Kentucky Derby. People could see his talent,

right? I.

Mean, yeah, you could see the talent, but it seemed like he

wasn't as mature. And then it's almost like once

it seemed like he matured, the talent kind of left.

And so, you know, he still ran pretty well.

He got that third in the Travers, but he's the kind of

horse that he's hasn't run since the Travers.

That was last August. He's got a horse that I am going

to stay away from. First time back off of that long

of a layoff and if he beats me, he beats me, but we're going to

try to beat him. So we actually talk about a lot

like the this is a Grade 3. Yeah.

And we kind of talked about like, is this a Grade 3 field?

That's it. I think so.

Yeah, OK. I mean we got a horse that have

have been in grade ones, right? Yeah.

We don't have a lot of winners, no.

That's what makes this feel, I guess, interesting to me is like

who's going to step up and win and create a stakes class?

I really like Cagliostro in this race.

He was a horse that I thought showed quite a bit of talent at

the beginning of his three-year old year.

I thought maybe they prematurely took an opportunity to run in

the Louisiana Derby, but then he came back and ran some solid

placings in some of the Midsummer big three-year old

races like the Indiana Derby and that those types of races.

And then he disappeared for a couple months, came back off the

layoff 1 allowance at Keeneland over Dreamlike, who also returns

in this spot. And I, I think he might be, I

think he has the potential to maybe not be top tier older

horse division right now, but he could be in that set that could

win these grade threes and then maybe jump up, run your second

or thirds and your grade ones. Well, this is a horse.

I mean exactly what we were just kind of talking about showed

great improvement in that allowance race race in

Keeneland, one that allowance race.

But in his stakes company came in fifth in the Oklahoma Derby,

second the Smarty Jones, third in that Indiana Derby that you

were talking about and then eighth again in Louisiana Derby

last year. So four shots last year at great

stakes. Hoping he matured while he was

off. It looks like he could have.

I mean, he definitely could have, right?

I mean, that's. That and Dreamlike's an

interesting one too, 'cause he was coming along.

He ran in the Wood Memorial as a maiden last year, got beat

ahead, comes back, breaks his maiden and then he runs a solid

second in the Pennsylvania Derby.

And then they threw him in the Breeders Cup Classic for some

reason. I'm still not really sure why,

but he. Why not?

Yeah, he finished 8th and then he disappeared for a couple

months, came back in that same allowance race.

He just got beaten neck by Cagliostro in that race.

So he's one that, you know, obviously if you're going to put

him in the Wood Memorial as a maiden and he almost wins it.

They thought he had a lot of talent and he's grade one place

now. Too, You know what I I I going

back though? Like his performance in that

Pennsylvania Derby was good enough.

Yeah, to to really say why not. Yeah.

And Saudi Crown got such an easy lead in that race, going to be

hard to catch him, especially on the mud.

So he's the kind of horse where if he did take that step

forward, which kind of looks like he did and he could very

much be a factor. I think the that allowance race

with those two running 1/2, I think that's the key race going

into this one. You're also going to get a an

old timer, kind of like Last Sam Samurai, who, of course, if this

was two years ago, I think a lot of people would love that.

Yeah, of course. So yeah, it's it's going to be

interesting just to kind of see how that plays out.

I'm. Also going to Shadow Trademark,

the Clark winner from last year. He has not run that great his

two races this year, but I've been a big fan of him since he

was a 2 year old so hoping he bounces.

Back and that's a horse right there that at least is one a

great a great stakes and and and and you know you're talking

about the Clark. He beat first mission in that

race by nose. He ran him down in the stretch,

and the first mission now is one of the top hopes for the

Classics. So you, you know, comes out that

Clark, there's not one Runwell Gulfstream.

Yeah. Which that can be a finicky

track. It can be.

Yep, comes back to Churchill on Derby weekend in a stakes race

on. The.

Mud on the mud. Yep, there's excuses for him,

but at 12 to one, you're probably getting the most value

out of that horse and you've got a horse that's actually one at

stakes company. So there you go.

And then Grade 1 stakes company is at the at that.

So classical class. He's probably the class in

subways. I agree with that.

All right, the Ottoman Stakes is the last race we're going to

talk about. This is a turf race mile and an

eighth. It is for three-year olds.

These horses actually could run again on foster Day.

Yeah, in the. American Derby I.

Believe American Derby and then there's another turf rate.

No, I guess that's a dirt race. I'm thinking of the but yes, the

American Derby for sure is that day.

All right, I'm Catholic, so I'm going to go with Thomas Aquinas.

So that's it's out. Thomas Aquinas, 15 to one prey

on it. Brian Hernandez.

I'll take it. Ian Wilkes and his daughter to

Assumption High School. So we got a good Catholic

connection there. Let's go for it.

All right, Who do you like here? Well, the interesting thing I'm

going to look at is going to. Be not going to just Catholics.

You know the Catholic. No, I'm not.

I am Catholic, but I'm not going to.

I don't think I'm going to bet on that.

All right. Might say some prayers for the

horses I will bet on. OK, the main thing for me is to

see what happens with Tricari in the pen mile tomorrow night,

because the that's the benefit is the pen mile is going to go

tomorrow night because the the horses that finished behind him,

formidable man Laganos in the American turf are in this race.

So if he runs huge, I think I'll probably end up landing on those

horses. If he doesn't, I might start

looking, looking elsewhere. But I I really like Laganos

actually. He's a horse I've kind of had my

eye on. He kind of, he was running on

dirt a little bit trying to see if they can make it into the

Derby. He ran a solid third in the

Transylvania run, another solid third in the American turf, and

I'm hoping that this is going to be a Raceway final breakthrough.

All right, so the Laganos is the pig.

Christian Torres will be the jockey and of course that is

also trained by Steve. That's right.

Steve asked most of that. All right, Sean, this was

fantastic. Man, I'm so glad I met you on

the backside. I.

Know that was just chance meetings.

It really was, I don't even know like why I said something to you

or not, but I typically try to meet newer people back there.

And I told Louie I was like, Sean is going to be a connection

that we're going to be glad we have for years to come because I

think going to be a super smart man.

Thank you. I appreciate it.

Maybe not after my horses that I picked out today don't run well

on Saturday, but. But again, your coverage is

fantastic. Make sure like let's plug

everything the blood horse first and foremost because that pays

the pays the paycheck right there.

If you search just search my name on Blood Horse, you'll find

all the articles that I write and also like like him.

Make sure you subscribe to the Blood Horse daily.

You'll see me on there quite a bit.

It's a. Great way again to learn things

about horse racing, know keep up with what's going on the sport

in a very easy way, but you're still doing the YouTube channel.

Still doing the YouTube channel and you know, you can catch if

you want just kind of quick video clips like I've been

posting a Mystic Dan and sees the Gray.

You can follow me on Twitter either under or BH under score S

Collins for my Blood Horse account or at a Pharaoh 12 for

my YouTube's account. And then the YouTube is a

Pharaoh 12. If you forget what that is, just

remember American Pharaoh, the 12th Triple Crown winner, and

you'll find it. So is that your?

Is that your favorite horse? Second favorite behind Barbaro,

but he was when I was like creating, you know, like I

originally started off as my gamertag for Pokémon Go.

That's where the name came from. It was that 'cause that game

came out a year after he won the Triple Crown, so he was fresh on

my mind, you know? So I decided to name my account

after that. Now it's the name that I used

for everything. Just got it turned out where

YouTube got popular with that name.

So now I can't change. It Now all you got to do is

guess Sean's most common used password and you're going to get

into most of his accounts. So there you go.

No, luckily I'm smart enough to not do that.

OK all. Right.

Listen, we're going to pay the tab.

We're going to get out of here. Thanks to Sean for joining me.

Louis will be back next week. This has been the horse racing

happy hour. Good luck everybody.