Johnny P (@theyreoff) joins to share his early pick 5 ticket on Maryland Million Day.
Visit our friends at TrySprinkle.Com! Use our promo code HAPPYHOUR for 20% off sitewide!
Johnny P (@theyreoff) joins to share his early pick 5 ticket on Maryland Million Day.
Visit our friends at TrySprinkle.Com! Use our promo code HAPPYHOUR for 20% off sitewide!
That's true things that only I would do 2 barely million shows
in a day. It is we're a horse racing out
there hanging out with our guy Johnny P Louis Roboto thanks so
much for hanging out with us on a Thursday evening edition of
the program that is worth handling.
You know he means business. John, how are?
You I'm doing great. You know, the way most people
are excited on like Buddhist Cup Thursday that like adrenaline
level. I have that adrenaline level
right now. It is ironically my Breeders'
Cup weekend. It's a very best in Maryland in
the spotlight and I just love it.
And from like a fan and betting standpoint, it's always a great
weekend. So I am super pumped.
Yeah, it turns out to be these these days, and I love it
because we get back-to-back and they are separated out by a
couple of hours. We'll get Marily, then we'll get
the Charlestown races as well. If you want to hear from Paul
Espinosa, he'll call the races at Charlestown.
He'll be with me tomorrow at 10:20 Eastern Time on ESPN
Louisville, our usual horse racing spot there on Fridays.
And hey, we got a new sponsor on the show today.
Want to welcomeourfriends@trisprinkle.com?
Very cool spot. And look, man, who says the
happy hour has been cocktails? It's time to try sprinkle
instead. It's a dissolvable THC powder
that turns any drink into a vibe.
You want energy grab, go. Want to mellow out?
Try chill. And if you it's time for lights
out, go ahead and sprinkle sleep.
No booze, no sugar, no hangover, just pure good times.
And right now it's sprinkle happy hour.
Use our code happy hour to get 20% off your next purchase.
So skip the bar tab and sprinkle your happy hour.
Find them online, try sprinkle.com.
Some of my favorite stuff going right now.
Man, I really love that stuff, John.
So really, really happy to get connected with them.
Nice American based company there in Arizona.
Very, very good people out there as well.
So, John, this Maryland million day, can you sort of explain to
folks how it is that you are, I don't want to say allowed to
run, but qualified to run in these races because there is a,
a big distinction in Maryland between siring and bread.
Yes. And I think especially in light
of the fact that the Mary's bread report came out today and
it kind of illustrates how basically people only care about
20 stallions and and everybody else can go shrub it.
It's very important to highlight days like the Maryland million.
So a Maryland million is four horses who are not Maryland
bread necessarily, but Maryland sire.
So if you're sire was standing in Maryland in the year in which
you were conceived, you are eligible for the Maryland
million. But sometimes you'll see horses
bred like Pennsylvania or New Jersey or like neighboring
states. West Virginia comes up good.
Yes, yeah, even if they are because they're they're Maryland
sired. And the only time a horse who's
Maryland bred or not Maryland sired can run is if it draws
fewer than 8 Maryland sired horses.
So like Post Tire is in the classic because there's only, I
think 6 Maryland sired horses and him and Secret Zipper are
able to run. And especially in this day and
age, it's really important to highlight to highlight state
sired programs because not only can a good horse come from
anywhere, they can be sired by anybody as the state proves.
Like you don't have to go to some Marquis stallion who is
being breaded 250 Millers a year.
You get a good horse. There's so many great stallions
all over the place. They're producing great horses
and yet a lot of times they don't get their due.
And a Maryland million is Maryland's way of giving their
stallions their due. So I think it's just amazing.
That's spectacular. And that sired versus bread
distinction, just so people know is for the stallion farms in
Maryland and it is a it's a proud tradition.
It goes back to the mid 1700s. It is something that's been
going on in that part of the country for nearly 300 years,
frankly at this point. And so obviously want to protect
some of those programs. And look, you and I were out of
Country Life Farm this year, for example, right ahead of the
Preakness. And you're, you see those
operations, you step on the grounds and you know what an
important day Saturday is going to be for so many of those
people. So let's get into it.
Earlier in the day, I did a Pick 6 preview with Dave Rodman and
Mackenzie Pfeiffer. Dan Elman was on for the first
part of that, but it is barely. He waved.
He waved, he said, hey, I'm betting on this horse.
And the last he ran out as fast as he could.
But this is the point, though, that John was just making big
week in Maryland. So Dan's giving tours of Laurel.
I mean, this is the kind of week we're talking about and it's one
of those things going on Maryland.
John and I are going to go through the early pick five and
try to get you rolling in bankroll early in the day there
at Laurel Park. So we will start with race one
at Laurel Park on Saturday. It is a starter handicap. 7
furlongs on the dirt, a one mile dirt course, a turn core, A1
mile turn is available at Laurel Park.
Excuse me. The track itself is a mile and
an eighth, so we'll do the seven furlongs from just at the bottom
of the chute there. Phillies and mares 3 and up.
Going for $40,000 in this one. John, where'd you land in race
one? You want to note post post on
Saturday is is a bit earlier than usual.
It's 11:30 Eastern Time, so make sure to set you alarms.
I am very enthusiastic about #9 clock, clock.
In fact, I spent most of the year thinking that she'd be a
serious contender in the Maryland million, this staff.
I thought she'd go in the big girls, but she was claimed to
12/5 earlier this year. That could end up being the
claim of the year in Maryland. And because of that, she is
eligible for this race. She really has not set a foot
wrong since getting claimed by Claudia Gonzalez.
She's hit. She's hit the exact in her last
seven starts, four wins in that stretch, a lot of them big
efforts against much better horses than she'll see here.
Thought she ran well last time, outgoing 6 furlongs in a third
level allowance officer, claiming probably a bit shorter
than she might have liked to go against a better field than
she's used to, but she ran a big race press the pace on the
outside. Worldwide got shook off by Top
Gun Girl, who's much better than anybody she'll she'll have to
see in here, but did hold on for a clear cut second Open Cap
Classic, who is a stakes winner and also a nice Philly in her
own right. Clock Clock Grant, another big
speed figure that day. I mean, if she wins back like
any of her last five races, I think she wins this one easily.
So she's a single in my pick 5. There you go, early pick five
talk with Johnny Piazza here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour out
at Laurel Park. The 9 will be John's early
single here in the early pick 5 John.
I'm going to include the eight in my ticket, which is
Neolithica will break right next to her out of the Karen Karen of
McGee Bar. I'm wondering if the McGee Bar
doesn't have a day on Saturday, Maybe three wins, something like
that. Acostic gets the ride here.
This horse came out of a very high level allowance at Delaware
Rent 7th, but only my 4 legs did have the lead in that race for a
little while. John as well and so was I was up
for the task, just wasn't as fast as those other horses.
And I'm not going to hold a $70,000 allowance purse against
this horse. Here is 6 for 15 lifetime at
Laurel Park as well. And I think dropping back into
this kind of level for this daughter of Neolithic makes a
lot of sense in this spot. So give me 8-9 early on in this
card if you're trying to play an exact or something like that.
John, which on these days I really think of, yeah, it's
great to play pick 5. So I know all that.
But man, with the size of these fields, if you can hit a couple
of nice exact as, you're going to be real good to go.
Oh, Oh, no question now, and I don't think A98 exacta is going
to pay a ton here because it it it is pretty much one of those
two, but it but it is going to be a good way to start your day
and and maybe build a a banquel take bigger swings later in in
the car. There you go race one again.
John is 983 and one in race 1, so if you wanted to follow along
with Johnny P, by the way, at their off on the socials, you
can go find him there. Race 2 on the card is the first
of the Maryland Million races. It is the Turf Sprint.
It is 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf running for $100,000 here.
This is for three and up John. Some names and names in here
that especially if you were watching, certainly if you watch
the Maryland circuit at all, but over previous weekend, you'll
recognize some of these runners as well.
Had to have them in here in the one hole.
Most recently ran in the Van Cleef before coming back to the
Laurel Dash at Colonial. Comes back in at 2 to one, I
think a worthy 2 to one in this field.
But Witty, of course, kind of one of those those locals with
Elizabeth Merriman, of course, in that in that barn with
Rodriguez, the two of them getting together a lot on these
kinds of horses. He's ridden him the last two.
He was the winner, by the way, of the Van Cleef.
The interesting part of this race, I think, John, is that
there are that may, there's a very serious chance that the two
best runners in this race are actually going to come from off
the pace. And so I think it might actually
set it up that if someone does get the jump on this field,
they've actually got a shot as well.
Where did you land in Race 2? I mean, first of all, Witty is a
good example of kind of what the Maryland Maryland is all about.
He's a half brother to to Caravel.
And as you said, Lizzie Merriman is the breeder, trainer and
co-owner. So she does it all and her
family has been involved in Maryland racing for decades.
Maryland. Royalty, Maryland royalty for
sure. Yeah, Maryland's through and
through to your point, I I pick how to have him on top, I he's
in improving for him. I really liked his race in the
Laurel Dash where he just toppled up ground on the outside
and one by two. But he he could have run by a
lot more if he was asked maybe a half second sooner.
I mean, witty, he's a fun horse, a cheer for, but he's just so
inconsistent. I mean, to your point about him
winning our Preakness Day, that was a day where speed was
extremely good on the grass and he came from off the pace and
one going away. And I was like, Oh my God, what
an effort. And then he shows up in the
Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga. He does nothing, comes back in
the Van Cleek, he wins, comes back in the the Haas again, does
nothing. He won this race in 2023.
He was 8th in it last year. So you don't know what you're
going to get with them to. Defend him, though, he has hit
the board in four of his five races this year, so it's not as
though he throws in legitimate high level clunkers or
something, John. But you're right, as far as
winning races, it's a little difficult to.
Predict, right? So he's kind of hard to gauge.
And to your point about a possible speed horse getting
away #8 when I get to heaven, I think is the biggest danger of
that. He's won his last two stars.
Ian Stakes Company won the Ben's Cat.
I'm just off the pace and then I ran a huge race in the boat
Allen at a Colonel Downs where he was hounded every step and
ended up winning by a head. I know he's he's got the outside
post, but there's not a lot of other quality speed.
I think as long as he breaks well he'll be able to cross and
clear to the rail and the lead and if he's left loose enough he
could very well steal it. I only picked him third in my
analysis, but I think he's still a must use in the pick 5.
Yeah, I have him on top actually, because of what you
just talked about. And frankly, if those two longer
closers who break from the inside of this field don't get
good trips, John, I I think he could absolutely get away from
that outside post when I get to heaven.
The son of St. Magician.
Why not? There you go.
Of course, bred by by Larry Johnson.
The you know, and by the way, this is a Ramsey ownership group
too, right? I mean, there, you know, people,
I think assume that this is all the, you know, the Merriman
family, whatever else. Some of the national outfits for
sure are playing the game in Maryland as well.
And so I, I just, I I'm interested here.
Nolan Ramsey trains as well. I this one comes out of that
handicap and those handicaps are popping up in play, you know,
Gulfstream colonial, I think of them.
He also won the Benz Cat right here at Laurel, 4 for 9
lifetime. I just, man, don't let this guy
get away. And frankly, they let him do it
in the Ben's Cat at 23 and three.
The fractions were like that. So even in a race when he didn't
break all that great, he was able to get that done.
And so I largely, John, I was going on his record at Laurel
Park. And I think the fact that the
other two major contenders in here are going to have to come
from off the pace. So I went eight, I went 831.
I know you went 138. So it's not as though we're
terribly different. Yeah, and and I want to note
also he is not best Larry Johnson bread grass sprinter
running this weekend. We'll have future is now over in
your neck of the woods on Sunday at Keeneland.
Hopefully a prep for the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint.
And if she wanted that race, that would be just amazing it.
Would be unbelievable, frankly. Yes, lots of good racing
happening here in the Commonwealth this weekend at
Keeneland. But of course we're talking
about Laurel Park. Presented by Spike Tri
sprinkle.com tonight. Go ahead and check out our promo
code happy hour. Get 20% off site wide with them.
Everything from a little bit of energy during the day to
something to help you sleep at. It got you covered at
trisprinkle.com. Race 3 in this sequence is
another starter handicap Gold 7 furlongs on the dirt.
Again, this is on the male side of things. 3 and up here,
$40,000 on the line in this one. John, you have a very different
horse on top in this one than I did in race 3.
Where did you end up planning? Something following this was for
a while, it's #4 MO is perfect. Who by the way, is by Mosley who
stands at Country Life Farm. To your point, this guy, he has
a lot of early speed and he's flaunted it all year long.
He won three back and four back gate Dwyer both times.
He was claimed by Kieran McGee in July at Parks.
One for McGee at Colonial ended up being transferred to the
Michael Pinot Bone at Parks and didn't run quite as well for
him. He he set the pace both times
going two turns and faded. Now he's back with McGee.
Historically he runs much better for McGee.
He he looks like main speed or at least one of the main speeds
in here. He loves this track.
He's won here 6 times in 24 starts and he's hit the exact of
four more times. I think there's a chance he goes
Gateway here as well. There you go most perfect a a
chance to go ahead and get the lead, keep the lead there two
wins and eight starts this year alone.
One of those at Colonial going a mile will step back into 7
furlongs here. I'm with you on especially the
cutback angle. I think it makes a lot of sense
for the source because like you said, he's capable of early
speed, right. He's willing to break out of the
gate, be in the lead, do that kind of work on the front end.
So as far as that's concerned, I I'm not going to push back to
dare to terribly difficult on that one.
I leave it on the 10 on top here, John in Irish Heroes,
Andre Perez is going to get the ride for John Robin this one.
And if we draw a line through what was an allowance for
$86,000 last out and we get back to this kind of level where he's
running in 12 K optional claimers, yes, at Delaware, but
also they throw him on the turf at public health.
We throw, you know, draw a line through that in his last races,
take out an allowance, take off a turf race and put him on the
dirt, put him at the distance or just a little bit shorter.
He's got four wins and four starts and I think that's the
horse we're going to get on Saturday.
I do have questions about the distance because he seems to be
a bit of a six furlong specialist.
I I can't, I can't tell John, but my sense is this is the
furthest he's ever going to go to this point in his career.
So that is a question here. But you also have that horse in
your handicap. And do you largely agree with
this? And that's a Irish Warfar in
this case. I picked him third.
My thing is, if you bet him, if nothing else, you're going to
run for your money because he is going to go to the front.
No doubt you're going to have a moment, yes?
And just keep going. It's possible that he can last
gate twire. I mean, I was skeptical of him.
I remember I was skeptical of him going even 5 1/2 furlongs
back in March. And he answered that question on
the private terms undercard. But then he won going 6 furlongs
time after that, and he did it again at at Delaware Park in
July. So wouldn't shock me at all if
he stole it on the front end. Do you want to give a shout out
as well to my second choice #3 Alvy, who is 30 to one on the
morning line? But if you look at the prison at
scale, he's one of only two horses in the field who has run
in the 80s in each of his last three starts.
Going First off the Claudio Gonzalez claim, he had a pretty
good closing kick. I mean at a 30 to 1 morning
line, I'm not going to say no. Yeah, no, that makes a lot of
sense, especially at the price, as you mentioned, out of that,
Claudio Gonzalez, Bart, who already has two wins this meet
at Laurel Park himself. But John lands in race 3/4, 3:10
and 9:00. If he's right about any of those
boys, we're going to get the payouts on that one for sure.
That's exactly right. John Piazza with the Learboat.
We're here previewing Maryland Million a Saturday.
We're going through the early pick five Race 4.
Boy, John, I, I got to say one of the things we talked about
early on, and this is one of the Maryland Million races, by the
way. It is the Turf Milan and 8th on
the turf course there. So we will start about halfway
up the stretch and do the two turns thing there at Laurel
Park. We'll put the yeah, when do we
put the tarp on? Does that happen after October
or is that getting to December? Like how much more turf racing?
We got along. We got a couple couple weeks
right. Generally, like right before
Thanksgiving is when they pull the plug, so we've got some
time. But this is one of those races,
John, when we talk about that sired and bred distinction,
that's super important for who gets to draw in to these races
because sitting on the AE list at 9 and 10 are Kuringa in hard
spun Reason. I want to be very clear, John, I
have those two. If this were just a 10 horse
field, they would be my top 2 selections for this.
And so if they draw in, I'm gonna show my pick five later.
And it's going to be a little confusing just because if one of
these horses gets in, I'm going to include it.
If they both get in, these are the two I'm going to use.
I'm going to scratch the other horses I'm using.
So in race 4, I know you landed on the 9 here.
Who's on the AE list? And Karenga, we you and I both
hoping that there's just at least one scratch here.
Right, Yeah. And look, try to point about
when I get to heaven and most perfect earlier.
This one has a lot of speed. I mean, he had a bit of a case a
second night as earlier in his career he loved to come in
second. But he faced what I thought was
toughest field he had ever seen on this track.
Last time out he said fairly honest fractions and he's not.
And not only held on, he wanted going away.
He won by over 4 lengths. We had a huge figure, not a lot
of speed drawn to his inside. So I think he could be very live
with a loose lead. A morning line favorite is the
only non Maryland sired horse in the main body.
That's number seven. You know nothing for the Miguel
Clement barn. I thought she raced really well
last time out over in your neck of the woods at Kentucky Downs.
Stellify, who won that race set just absolutely darling
factions. Nobody had any hope to catch
her. Stellify verified her own form
by winning the ladies marathon next time out, so you know
nothing ran huge that day. My only thing is, it's possible
that Kuringa plays the role of Stellify and You Know Nothing is
once again Pays compromised. I think that's the definite
possibility in this field. I real question for you here.
Throw the blinkers on here. Equipment change that way at
least. Does that tell you that Miguel
Clement wants this horse to get out front?
I think it does in my opinion. Yeah, I think he kind of knows
what's up. So I think it's a possibility he
might try to have this have disability rather challenge
Kringer for the early lead. Only thing is, is that Kringer
has. Been proven that he can go to
the front and just keep going. Some voices are just by their
nature not frontrunners. Oh, it's possible that Jamie is
going to try to send, you know, nothing all he wants and she
does might not want to go. And Karinga still gets the front
and he still sets that slow pace.
So I mean, she's even money on the morning line.
There's no way that you'll get that if any of those
aforementioned 2 draw in, even if it stays intact.
I don't think she's worth even money, but she is, I think in
the main body her best force in the race, but not like a cinch
by any stretch. Is is, you know, once in a
while, John, you and I do these shows and we try to pick out a
pick five. And one of the questions I
always ask is in this sequence, who's the horse you have to beat
to get that pay right to get to bump it from being an eight $900
pick 5 to being 2 grand plus. Is this the horse?
Is it? Is this the even money favorite
here? Is this the horse of this
sequence? Because it doesn't feel like it
to me. I I think not that she deserves
to be such a big favorite, as I said, but she is the most
vulnerable favorite I think in the sequence.
And because of that, again, if it stays intact, she'll end up
being my top pick. But if you wanted a junker
completely, I'd be like good for you.
Toss it. You went 9786.
I went 910786. So I mean, we could not have
been more. So I I've been talking to you
for years. This is probably the closest
we've ever been on a race, all things considered it.
So it's a pretty, pretty wild. But closing out the early pick
five, of course, is race 5. It's another of Maryland million
races and it is the Lassie. It's one of the two year old
races. And don't worry, John's got
notes on the later part of the sequence too that he wants to
get to, so we will definitely do that as well.
This is 6 furlongs on the dirt. We're going for two year old
Phillies here, $100,000 on the line.
And I'd like to go through these fields, John, just because
something you said earlier, I actually believe as well, which
is you don't know where the next superstar might come from.
And the two year old races this time of year around the country,
I think we should treat the ones in Maryland like I treat the
ones in California or Kentucky or New York or whatever might
be. So let's go ahead and go through
this field. At least some of those that we
know have legit shots here. We'll start with the 2 here out
of the Capuano barn in Doc's Miracle.
Tried the Small wonder last time, but before that did break
its mango in two terms at Timonium.
What do you make of this? This horse here?
The son? Excuse me, This daughter of Long
River? So she's interesting because she
was, I think going into the spring kind of the second banana
in the captain mono bone behind a stablemate of hers named just
filtered who ended up winning two stakes at Colonial Downs and
would have been an odds on favorite in this race because
she's by great notion. But her people decided to put
her in the matron on grass and aqueduct last week.
It it didn't quite work out, but hey, you take your shots and
Katyuano still has who who who who He actually bred, by the
way, also under the name non-stop stable.
So he again, trainer, co-owner, Co breeder.
He does it all with this one. She has, you know, she's gotten
better in her last few starts, but her whole career has been
kind of underwhelming to me. Like I know she won easily two
starts back at Timonium, but that was not a strong field at
all. I mean, she pretty much had to
win that race. I thought 6 to 5 was kind of a
gift on her. Punched out second last time out
in The Small wonder but didn't have I think a lot of like
punch. Now she could take another big
step forward here and at least make some noise in the exotics,
but I'm not too enthusiastic about her in the Pick 5.
That is the two in docs miracle. Let's go to the five and share
success. A second timer for Brittany
Russell did break her maiden in a state in the state red race at
Laurel Park just a couple of weeks ago in the beginning of
September. Very clearly trying to time it
for this one. It appears at least a daughter
of Engage and that is the into mischief line.
If you don't remember Engage folks, an interesting one I tend
to lean toward. I trust Brittany Russell in
these spots. Do you think we'll get 4 to one
number one? And what do you think of her
prospects long term? Well, I will say that Engage is
becoming one of the most popular stallions in Maryland.
He stands at Northview where Great Notion stands.
And I kind of wonder if Northview kind of sees him as
the heir apparent to Great Notion as the marquee stallion
in Maryland. I mean, I mean, for the reasons
he talked about, he's by into Mischief.
So he has that going for him. So I'm curious to see how this
one races and it's rarely that a Brittany Russell horse goes
under the radar in a 2 year old race in Maryland, but I have not
heard much buzz about that source.
So she could kind of slide through the cracks.
I mean she did run a big race on debut set the pace kicked away.
It was a largely inexperienced field, but she did what she had
to do. Shawn and Russell gets a board
for the first time. Now I'm I'm not planning on on
using her in my pick 5 but but that being said I picked her
4th. I'm not sure what what her
morning line is, I'll look it up real quick, but I think it's a
decent shot. 4:00 to 1:00. Five O 6 to one at the end and
again, how often you get 5-6 to one on a Brittany Russell 2 year
old. I mean, come on.
That that would shove me over the edge to vote to bet for I
bet honestly, if I got 5 to 1 on a on a Russell Russell.
Right, that's the thing. At that point, I'm betting for
sure. I I'm fascinated by that one
just because, you know, that's a great notion on the damn side as
well. And I don't know if she'll turn
into a classic horse, you know, an Oaks or an Acorn or something
like that kind of horse. But once in a while you get
great. You know, we've seen some of
those in the mischiefs turn into, say, turf sprinters and
that kind of stuff. I wonder if we won't get, you
know, more of a quick type of foot out of her.
Dave Rodman and Dan Ilman's top choice of this race is Rerun
Table, the Six Tori Alba rides for Salzman here in those four
furlong baby races at Timonium. I never quite know what to make
of them, John. But what do you make of of Rerun
Table? No business to doubt, Dave.
Robin, you understand me? I'm no business.
So I didn't hear you guys talking about this horse on the
show this afternoon. I remember when she was going to
debut because she was entered for her debut on Derby day and I
was looking forward to her debut almost as much as I was looking
forward to the Derby because she had such has such a huge win,
early pedigree. I was like she's going to win
and it's going to be great. And then she got scratched,
finally came back at Timonium on August 24th.
I didn't bet as much money as I should have because she went off
at 7:00 to 2:00 and she ran just a gigantic race came from all
off the pace In a four foot long race, horses do not make up 2
1/2 lengths. They don't atrimonium in 1/4 of
a mile. But they but but she did wore
down. What are we doing for the
Russell Bone won by a head has worked very well since.
And I think Dan, they've noticed she was going on, you know, a
lot of three and four furlong drills over the summer.
She's been going 5 furlongs and each of her last three stars
kind of getting her read before this spot.
And I know Morning Line favorite, who I'm sure we'll
talk about in a bit, is Superstitious, who was written
by JG Torrealva all summer long at Colonial Downs.
JG also rode a rear on table in her maiden win and now he's
taken. Are you on the table here too?
Wow. Yeah, we talked about Doc's
Miracle earlier. Doc's Miracle was in the same
race as a horse named Witchiness and that horse will break from
the 9 hole here. Has been off since mid-july
where the horse won on debut at Delaware in a main special.
Does have a bullet work at parks the other day in a small sample
size, but it's been working well.
Good work from the gate a couple back as well.
I like witchiness a lot in this spot because I think you're
going to get unbelievable value. I think the speed figures not
going to speak to people. I think the connections are not
going to speak to people. I think this ends up being an
8:00 to 12:50 kind of horse. I think that that's the kind of
price you're going to get on this one.
Other than the layoff, John, is there anything about this horse
not to like in this spot? I mean, I could see it being as
low as 4 to 1. I could see you being as high as
12 to one. I really don't know.
I mean as you said, there's a lot of ways you can go.
She ran well on debut at at Delaware.
Broke slowly, made-up a lot of ground.
They learned a huge speed figure that day but still overcame a
lot of adversity at the start. It was always good to see as a 2
year old came back to the work tab in mid-september and has
worked well since. She was Co bred by Jamie Ness,
who won this race with a home bred 2 two years ago in chicky
nest Ness being kind of the the giveaway that this is a Jamie
Nespera. So so I do think he's he's had
this one pointed towards this race specifically for a long
time, possibly from the moment that she got on the work tab in
early June. So I'm just curious see how the
board is going to look with her. And obviously you can't see that
in the early pick 5, but you know, if you're betting to win
or if or if you're playing a, you know, medal pick three or
medal pick four and you can watch the board.
I do think she's also one you want to keep in mind.
Yeah, super sloper Stittis superstitious.
Superstitious. There's no stitious, there's no
shish at the end of that. There's no, I think, the key.
You know, I'll see if I can find Robbie or the risers on
Saturday, but I feel like. You you get these people on
camera saying what the name of this horse is, because I think
this horse could be pretty good. All right, so it's a daughter of
great notion Slew city slew on the damn side.
I love that, by the way, And this is one that's been
sprinting, of course, 2 year old.
So we wouldn't expect too much of A stretch out unless they're
running an adjustment or something or at Kentucky Downs,
this one that ran in the alley Madison that ran in the Keswick
before that has been in those stakes at Colonial.
Obviously though, as the Maryland bred was in this field
the whole time. I'm I'm fascinated.
I think 9 to fives. It always feels short a 2 year
old race to me, John. It just it is what it is.
Even with a tetanofi or something like that.
I just kind of go 9:00 to 5:00. I don't know even if it it feels
obvious or whatever, but this is one that if you take out the
effort on the turf, but even the effort on the turf was fine.
Let's be honest, like it was it was fine.
It was by just filtered who you've talked about already.
How good can superstitious be? Look at me saying things
correctly and, and do you agree with me, you know, on that great
notion kind of line, we're looking at a, you know, 5 1/2 to
7 furlong kind of specialist. Absolutely.
And, and I'll say also if I'll say sluperstitious, if
sluperstitious had. Sluperstitus.
Broken her maiden in that style she did at at Saratoga or Del
Mar or Total Downs. People will be falling over
themselves about her. She made a huge move in the
center of the track broke broke on the far outside post swooped
the field one by almost 9 lengths and a huge prisoner
figure of 84. Very good for mid-july at
Colonial Downs and as you said, ran very well in who nest two
starts following that now. Now, as you said, she's by great
notion who's progeny generally don't want to go that far, but
it's only 6 furlongs. She showed a great closing kick
even though Torialpa's not aboard her.
Javion Toledo obviously a more than capable replacement.
So I think she's very alive. That being said, I don't think
she'll be as low as 9 to 5 and I definitely don't think rerun
table is going to be 6 to 1. I think they're going to be
pretty close in the final betting.
John landed 1063 and five in this one.
The only horse in that list, John that we didn't talk about
is a winner on debut in Noble Status.
And shame on me, by the way, because this horse won by over 4
lengths on debut, keeps all of the same, all of the same
connections. Hamilton Smith Barn and all the
things. But that was a debate in 25.
And so, so people know around the country, if you're dropping
in on Maryland for the weekend, the different maiden levels that
they have there. So I was, I was joking earlier
on the show. I'm sure you heard of John.
You know, they run for 150 claimers in the main level in
Kentucky. We're not doing that in
Maryland. 45's about the highest that you see in Maryland.
So 25 is about a step and a half below that, something like that.
So they decided to debut this horse at that level.
Now to be fair to the connections, they also paid 4
grand to breathe this thing. So I sound like she was an
expensive breeding job at all this daughter, her first
Mondays. But that is the curling line.
She's from that jumpstart line on the damn side as well.
Is it the breeding you like? Is it the performance in that
maiden climber? What do you like the most?
Combination of both just by First Mondays who was kind of
unheralded when he started his career in Maryland, but he's
been doing very good work. He's hitting at 24% with first
time starters. So it would not shock me at all
if First Mondays ended up being a relatively popular stallion.
I mean, I mean, I mean 24%, it's a much higher rate than a lot of
those big ducky stallions and you don't have to pay nearly as
much. It was, I mean that was not a
strong field at at all. It was a $25,000 ban and claimer
you probably cross off at least one zero to get an idea of how
much those horses were actually worth.
But she closed off of very moderate fractions opening
quarter only 23 2/5, half 47 4/5.
But she kept on coming, won by over 4 lengths going away, ran a
decent figure. I don't think she's a great win
candidate because she will have to improve quite a bit to beat
the likes of superstitious and show success.
But I think if if you're playing a trifecta or a super factor, a
20 to one on the morning line or even something like that, she's
definitely worth using. All right, I apologize for that.
I've never in my life had that happen.
My computer literally just restarted.
I don't know if. It was.
Odd or something like that but literally popped off.
But to be fair, that's also the quickest my computer's ever
restarted, so maybe work out we're here.
Exactly right. So you are in race 5 again, 1063
and Five Horse Racing Happy Hour, He's John Piazza.
I'm going to apologize for that, whatever that was.
I apologize in advance for that. John.
I want to show your pick 5 here, so let's go ahead and run
through that together. You mentioned in race one you're
going to single with the 9 horse there, but after that a little
trickier, 2 races in a row with five if someone has more of a
bankroll. Are those all kind of races to
you or will those those five largely cover what you think can
happen in those races? Yes, I will say in race number
two of the four, Olive Rev kind of scares me because she's also
done well on this track. She's 5 for 9 lifetime and she
has also cost me a lot of money in many of those wins.
So I think she is a bit dangerous.
Definitely one worth using if you have a bit of a bigger
bankroll. And in those starter races, I
mean, I think you could spread 10 deep and still be concerned
about #11 yeah. So.
Treat them like the dime claimers they they represent.
I mean, that's the best of the 10 to $12,000 climbers, right?
It is what it is and it's OK, by the way, that makes for a good
betting product. So absolutely Phil's gates and
handicap. Yeah, just give us all the
stuff. That's exactly right.
So you go 5 deep in the next two legs, 12368 in leg 2, 134910 in
case anyone happens to be listening instead of able to
view this at all. But then only two deep in the
last two legs, you go 79 in race 4.
So a reminder of that race is the turf is the turf itself.
So in that race I need to point out that you are on 7:00 and
9:00. So that's Coringa if he draws in
and then you know nothing. Of course, the Clement trainee
that they are trying to get closer to the front for sure.
And then in the 2 year old race at the end there, you are going
to use #10 who is, I'm so sorry, my computer's still acting up
here. Superstitious, of course,
Everyone's favorite horse, of course.
And then the Brittany Russell tradie shares.
Success. No, no.
Excuse me? You're on the rerun table.
Yes. OK.
All right, I All good. All good.
I no, no, no, we need a single rerun table is what I'm saying,
That that's all I need. Like we're at the point now.
It's Dan, it's it's Dave, it's you.
I think Mackenzie talked this horse up.
We have to have the bag. Yeah, that's it.
That is what's going on there. So that is John's ticket, right?
At 50 bucks, might somewhere between 96 and $144.
Frankly, if Karinga draws in, go ahead and use it that way.
I'll leave this up on the screen for a minute.
I'm going to go 8-9 in the first leg, I'll go 1/3 and eight in
the second leg. So skinny in a spot that's not
an easy spot to be skinny 691011.
So that's the leg there that I'm going to go a little bit
differently than John because John did not have the 11 or the
six in his handicapping in Race 3, but I'm going to include
those two in mine. I have 678 and 9 and 10 in the
fourth leg. Again, the 9:00 and 10:00 would
have to draw in to that field. If they do not use the 6-7 and
eight, that would be $144 ticket.
If the 9 and 10 draw in, just use two horses to $96 ticket and
then 569 and 10 in the finale. A little bit of a flyer there.
I'm also covering my bases. I do think share success can win
in here and I do think witchiness off the bench can win
as well. So, and frankly, I think
witchiness would probably pay the best of those four horses as
well. Yeah, so there you go and that.
But John, I know you do have some horses that you wanted to
talk about from later in the card.
So let's go ahead and do those. Tell me which races they're in
and then I'll I'll follow along with you.
So race #7 not in the early or late pick 5, but it does begin
the Chesapeake Jackpot pick six. It's Maryland Million Death
Staff, which by the way, out of the 12 horses in here, 8 of them
are homebreds for the driving home.
The point of how this is a real like down home kind of race.
And I really like a horse who we followed a lot on the road to
the Black Eyed Susan and the Preakness, who neither I, I, I
don't think either you or Dan or Mackenzie or Dave brought her
up. And I think she is, I think a
single. And I love the LOL race to
office. I wish they had put this race in
the late pick 5 so so I could single her in the pick five.
That's number three, Onyx 10. Whoa, whoa, Time out real quick.
Time out real quick. Because I need to talk to you.
I need to talk to you. Hey to Gabbard.
Hey to Gabbard, but also the single with the pick 6 just
making a 20 cent pick 5. That's true, but it's a jackpot.
It's not quite the same. I know but Laurel this year
they'll be playing better on the pay 6:00 they have been on the
pick 6 excuse me they have been they've just been there we'll.
Be playing the pick 6 just because of this force so I I OK
all right OK OK. Continue.
Continue. Yes.
So I'll allow it. I'll allow it, yes, So folks who
listen to our shows over the went through no Onyx 10.
Well, she won the wide country and the extra heat both times by
a length or more, both times running big figures, both of
them going short distances. 6 furlongs and seven furlongs
respectively. Try to go a mile in in the
Beyond the Wire stakes. Didn't work out front of the
sidelines after that race. Came back in the tax free
shopping distaff allowance at Delaware Park.
Basically a stakes race in everything but official name
only based older horses for the first time that day sat just off
the pace kicked away ran a career best prisoner figure in
her first start off a 5 1/2 month break.
Now going second off the bench keeps Yens at Hazelwood, who's
been having an amazing meet. He's AI think a there's a course
for the Eclipse Award for leading apprentice, as many
Marylanders have won. I was going.
To say that is that is a Maryland specialty, no doubt
about it. Yep.
Yeah. So I so I think on pure ability
she is the best horse in this race.
I think if she moves forward at all, second off the layoff, the
rest of these are earned for a second.
I think the excite, one of the exciting things about this
particular race is how many good 3 year olds there are in it.
Yes, speaks to the future in this division in Maryland.
I think it's going to be very, very good for a while.
And so that part has been really, really good.
So again, that is the three horse in race 7, Onyx 10 in the
Distaff there on Maryland Million Saturday, John Piazza,
Guru Rabot. We are going through John's
later in the card standouts for him, which race we're going to,
not John. So going all the way to the end
after after post time has won the Classic and everyone talks
about how great he is again. There's still one more to go and
everyone's trying to get out, making sure they still have
enough money to go to Jimmy Seafood.
At the end of the day, of course, I'm going with another
horse bred by the Risers, trained by Robbie Bales and one
easier to pronounce than their other home bred #5 Slam.
Notion was a not dissimilar profile to that of Onyx 10 in
that he's a three-year old who proved himself against older
horses last time, has been getting better throughout the
year and I think is ready to run a career best race.
He's run well on this track numerous times.
He's hit the exact of five times out of six year.
Really his only bad races this season came in the Chick Lang
when he broke slowly and might have been a bit outclassed in
the 1st place, and then when he tried to grass a Colonial Downs
in late July and that just didn't quite work out.
When did the dirt nest time out? First time against older horses
on today off track and there's a chance of raining later in later
in the car. Knock on wood.
The rain stays away till the end of the day.
But it's possible it's a bit of an off track.
And he handled that with ease. Sat sat off the pace, split
horses one easy. There's a lot of speed in here.
I mean, Haley's first notion #8 is definitely going to be the
main speed. There's some high quality speed.
It was outside in Twisted Ride, few more speeds to their inside.
I think Slam Notion sits just off the pace and he gets to set
up. You mentioned it does post time
when the classic. You know, I I have tried to beat
him before and I don't think he's as good as he once was,
which kind of which both the Whitney and and Order would
proved, but he still has enough left in the tank.
Beat these, I think, if you want to try to beat him, if you want
to be kind of a wise guy #2 Barbadian runner.
If Barbadian runner takes a step forward from the Hilton, he can
win this race. I actually agree with that.
Absolutely. Yeah, He'd absolutely win four
times, takes 10 stakes, placed a million times.
I mean, as as I said on Twitter a while back, he has another
great story. He's by like a real working
class stallion, working class owner, working class trainer.
Forest Boyce has been riding in Maryland for a million years and
he's been having a great season. And also before a secret zipper,
I picked him third. He's 21 in the morning line at
his best. I don't know if he's capable of
his best anymore. At this best, at his best, he
can wire this field and at his best he can wire this field.
I think even if the best version of post time shows up, so it's
it's going to take kind of a perfect elixir.
But if you want to take a shot of the pick 5, if you found
enough singles elsewhere and you have the opportunity to spread,
which I don't, I'm going to end up singling post time.
God bless those people. But if you really want to take a
shot, yeah, yeah, there are options.
You know, we talked about it earlier in the earlier part of
this episode, John, where in the early sequence, who's the horse
you have to beat to get the pad. It's post time in this in on
the. Car.
Obviously it's post. It's not hard.
Yeah. Let's let's walk through it,
John. Let's assume he wins on
Saturday. What?
What are you saying about post time in five years?
I hope there is a stakes at the new Pimlico named after him
because he would deserve it. And I'm hoping that I mean, I
know, missus. I don't hate that by the.
Way. Oh yeah, and.
I. And, and I know Missus Charles,
who owns him, is a Marylander through and through.
Her family's been involved in Maryland for a long time.
So I'm hoping that he ends up standing somewhere in Maryland
after he's done. Yeah, right on the track.
So he is just, I mean, he he in in many ways, his owner, his
trainer, his jockey, everything about him.
He is almost like the embodiment of Maryland racing.
You know, he's had a great closing style.
He's really, I'm, I've seen him mature over the years.
I remember when he debuted. He's to like lug in like crazy.
He's really established himself. He's run a huge on many big
stages. He's had a tremendous career.
So he'll, he'll, he'll always be a favorite of mine.
He won the Deputed Testimony Stakes, of course, in June,
named for the last previous winner.
But but it's possible that a post time had not gotten hurt as
he might have. I mean, we'll never know, but
it's possible that we have to bring up that we wouldn't have
to have to bring up a computer testimony if we.
Like that changes, right, If if Marilyn Bread wins the
Preakness, like we got to move to Pewdie testimony out of the
way on that sakes name, right, it goes immediately to the next
horse, right, I mean. Well, well, I must say there is
one horse who there is one horse who you and I saw live this year
and we had talked about as a possible horse in this race who
I thought might have broken the drought had he not gotten hurt.
And that is Passion Rules by Friesian Fire, who has been
working at Central Downs over the past few weeks.
I was hoping he would show up here.
He did not. But I have to imagine he's going
to come back fairly soon somewhere out in your neck of
the woods. And he's a horse who people
should should have their eye on, like those Fairgrounds Oak Lawn
Foil Stakes, because he can make a lot of noise in those.
Yeah, it'll be interesting too to see who ends up, you know, as
we start to get to this time of year.
Obviously Breeders' Cup in a couple weeks, we'll be focusing
on that. But the post Breeders' Cup
stuff, we get to Churchill when we get back to those, those
Aqueduct races, the the Cigar Miles and that kind of stuff.
The Clark, of course, where some of these horses are going to end
up because the horse like post time ain't going to the Breeders
Cup and I don't know if the cigar miles a better spot for
him. I don't know if the Clark's a
better spot for him if they got discouraged by his effort here
at Churchill Downs, but against a track record.
So like, what are we doing? And so I just I'm interested
where some of these horses are going to end up after this this
weekend, essentially where, you know, a post time.
This is I'm going to call it a soft spot, but it's a soft spot
for him compared to the woodwork or something.
And so, you know, get some of that confidence back and then
move on with it. Do you think even with them
being 10% at Laurel, they're actually hoping for a little
moisture in the track because he's very good?
Yeah, I yeah. I mean he's excelled in the mud
too. Like he's one and off tracks
here. And in fact, probably his most
impressive race of his career was in Maryland juvenile as a 2
year old and that was in a sea of mud.
Or at least his most impressive Laurel race.
I mean the quote is probably his most impressive race in general.
I won't say too. I think a lot of post times
campaign the rest of EU depends on if they're going to bring
them back at six. If they are not, I can see them.
You know, Just wanted to end his career, but some stakes win at
Lowell and I cap them all, hopefully with an underfeeded
record at Lowell and not make too many big swings with him.
I think one more run in the Cigar Mile and then off to stud
makes total sense for him. It really does.
And and yeah, right. Go, go see what that that field
looks like and then go, go to the breeding shed.
But like you said, he could stand in Maryland.
He could stand for a decent price, frankly, and make it
worth it. For that.
Ownership group for sure. And so yeah, gosh, crazy to
think about him not running anymore.
So I used to seeing him all the time.
So durable as a 4-5 year old. All these races we've got to see
him in. Well, John, thanks so much, man,
for for hanging out for sharing your your insights here.
Again, head back to the early part of this episode for John's
early pick five and my early pick 5.
Frankly, if you want that as well, you should play John's
instead of mine. Maryland million day out there
as well. Two more of his picks there in
the distaff in the Sprint to close the show.
And again, hey, happy hour doesn't have to be all about
cocktails is trying to try sprinkle instead.
It's a dissolvable THC powder that turns any drink into a
vibe. If you want energy grab, go.
Need to mellow out, try chill. And if it's time for lights out,
of course, try sleep. No booze, no sugar, no
hangovers, just pure good times. Right now it's sprinkle happy
hour. Use our code happy hour at
checkout, 20% off your purchase site wide at try sprinkle.com.
So skip the bar, skip the bar tab and try our friends at try
sprinkle.com. Happy Marilyn million to you,
John, have a great time. Thank.
You so much. If you're doing the the cigar
thing that I didn't get invited to, take pictures for me, tag me
on socials, do all the good stuff, make me feel like I'm
there. I'm not going tomorrow night,
but the illman is though. If you want to get those
pictures, you can. We'll have to do that.
Thank you to everyone who hung out.
We got up to 660 people watching.
We appreciate you very. Much.
There you go. I'm a.
Heartbreaking happy hour back at tomorrow, sometime Saturday.
We'll preview that car now.
Race day tip sheet in your inbox before the first race. No spam. No paywall. Just picks.