Matthew DeSantis | Kentucky Derby Prep – Iroquois

We were talking about Churchill Downs with our guy Matthew

DeSantis. He's from Naira bets at Failed

to Menace on Twitter. Is it a menacing with the

weather there or is it a nice day as we are dealing probably

with a sealed sloppy track today?

It is an absolutely gorgeous day up here in Ozone Park, so it is

fast and firm for opening day of the fall meet at Belmont.

Big A So happy for that. And you know, we dealt with our

fair share of rain this summer up to Saratoga.

But a nice way to kick off the meat today.

You mentioned Saratoga and I, I have to let me preface it with

this. Is this your first or second

year staying in Saratoga for the summer?

Second year staying up there. Oh, yeah, yeah.

OK. Did you, did you learn anything

from the first year that you applied to this year of being in

a place like Saratoga for the summer?

How to pace myself that's. Right.

Yeah, No, I'm kidding. You know, it's just that when

you're when you're running five days a week, I mean, you just,

it really is about scheduling and handicapping and, you know,

staying on top of things three or four days out.

And so, you know, it's so critical, especially with us

drawing six days out in advance. So you know, those past

performances were out a lot earlier.

So just kind of getting on that stuff.

But I think it, you know, one of the things was we obviously

dealt with our fair share of weather.

So track conditions were kind of changing sometimes throughout

the meet, but it was a pretty speed favoring track for the

most part on the main track and on the inner turf course we saw

a lot that closer is doing well. So those are some of the trends

you just kind of pick up and learn as as you go by throughout

the meet. Yeah, I always laugh when people

are like, wow, they have a lot of people working at Churchill

Downs and I'm like, that's four people.

They run five days a week, like 11 times a day.

Like there's a lot to do over there.

I mean, she's so. What do we?

What do we expect people to do? Just handicap 100 races a week

and be totally fine? Come on, people, it's it's

really pretty remarkable. He is Matthew to say this at

failed to medicine IRA bets all of the things 2 year old races.

Do you have a general approach to two year old races as we get

into that season? I had Dan Elman on last night.

He's one of these guys I really trust, you know, about two year

old racing. And and one of the things he

pointed out with was that they, you know, people always want to

be smart and be the person that picks out the first time

starter. And you don't need to be that

person. You know, get the second timer,

the 3rd timer that's seen the track a little bit, who's been

in a race, who's broken from a gate with, you know, eight other

horses or whatever. That was something he talked

about, you know, as we get to like a stakes kind of company,

are you looking for a horse you think can move forward or are

you looking for a repeat performance?

Like what are you generally looking for, Matthew?

That's a good question. I think for a stakes sort of

thing where these horses all have experience or you know, for

the most part horses will have experience, I tend to look for

horses who have shown some amount of versatility or the

ability to overcome obstacles. I think that's something which

in two year old races, so many times you see horses win first

time out date, the wire, they've they've encountered 0 obstacles.

They only know one way to win, which is upfront.

And so finding horses that had a little bit of a trouble trip and

still had the talent to overcome it, or horses that just maybe

have a natural running style that is going to allow us to

speed horses to kind of wear themselves out up front.

I mean, we saw this a little bit down in the Bashford Manor.

I remember over the summer where they just were bleeding fast up

front. It's just the pace completely

fell apart and that happens a lot in these two year old races.

So I think finding horses were more comfortable sitting a

little further off the pace and have overcome obstacles that

always really stands out when I'm looking at 2 year old.

Horses, yeah. The Bashford Manor, of course,

was earlier this summer, as Matthew pointed out, the early

part of our two year old schedule here in Kentucky.

You watch these things a bit from apart.

And by the way, politically correct, who won that race from

off the pace is entered in the 12th hole for, for the Iroquois

this weekend. You know, Dan mentioned it last

night and I, I think it's, it's just true, which is the best 2

year old in, you know, the best 2 year old program in the

country is at Saratoga. But boy, Ellis is really making

a splash on that scene. Yeah, they really are.

I Brendan Walsh has a lot of good horses that were debuting

down there this summer and I think they have a really nice

group of two year olds and and obviously the morning line

favored in the Iroquois Owen Almighty coming out of that

juvenile victory at Ellis Park. You know, looks so impressive

and again, a horse that fits what I just said in terms of

doesn't need to lead, like to kind of stalk from off the pace

and has a little bit of patience, has the ability to

rate. You saw the stretch out to seven

furlongs was successful. And that's the other thing that

when you're looking at these two year old races, which of these

horses are ultimately going to end up being sprinters and which

of these horses have the ability and the foundation and the

pedigree to suggest they're going to want a mile, let alone

and eventually a mile and an eighth a mile and 1/4?

It's interesting because you know, and and Matthew DeSantis

with us from Naira bets that failed to menace on Twitter that

we all look and we see the 10 points for the Kentucky Derby

next to this race. But we all we forget there's

also $300,000 next to this race, right?

I mean, it's a it's a point. Like you might think you have a

six or seven furlong type of horse, but hey, maybe he can go

an extra of a mile and we get a check for 160,000, right?

It'll be like we forget that part of this too.

Yeah, for sure. Absolutely.

I mean, I think a lot of times the Pocahontas, yeah, I heard

the ear questions say 1 Pocahontas for the Oaks.

Of course they you know, yes, they're 10 points for the Oaks

and Jerry Prep. But you're right.

Like it's still a stakes race. And a lot of times you do look

at a horse that maybe you go, well, six, 6 1/2, but you know,

sometimes the speed is A1 turn race.

So, you know, maybe we can get a mile and the horses are more

likely to take a shot and then sometimes you see them back to

six, 6 1/2. But still, it's worth taking a

shot and these sorts of things. It's actually a 2 year old where

these horses can be so precocious.

They develop so quickly. You know, these are the kind of

fastest developing horses in the crop in a lot of cases.

And so you never know who's going to end up, you know, kind

of coming out on top. Doesn't mean you're going to be

the best 3 year old by a long shot.

But for right now, they show a lot of talent at this early

stage. Matthew DeSantis with us from

Naira Bets. Let's get into a couple of those

races. Let's talk about that.

Pocahontas. It's the eighth race tomorrow

here at Churchill Downs on a mile dirt course there.

The one Turner I by the way, I, I, I went into this a little bit

last night. Matthew.

I appreciate that these races are at the one turn mile.

Actually at this point in development for the horses, I

think that it's an appropriate thing to be doing with two year

olds. Stilettos is in here.

The 12 horse, obviously a name that we remember from that Ellis

Park debutante. Utterbrain Hernandez Junior Jose

Ortiz gets them out there, which is interesting.

I like Liam in the dust here. The 14 horse, 15 to one.

Love that number for Rudy Bruce. Where'd you land in this one?

Yeah, I landed on a horse that I saw up in close in person up in

Saratoga, which is Lacara, who is 5 to one on the morning line

for trainer Mark Cassie. Cassie has got a really good

group of year olds this year and Lacara was so impressive

stretching out the seven furlongs after not being able to

break that maiden that 5 1/2. And so I thought the fact that

you saw this horse stretch out, go longer and and really improve

is what really stuck out to me. I thought 5 to one certainly

would be a fair price to get on Lacara, the number 3, if I'm not

mistaken, in that race. And the other thing that, you

know, goes back to Dad Elman's point that you brought up

earlier, she's run four times. You know, she's got experience.

She knows what it's like to get in a gate, to run around with

other horses. She's had some setbacks.

She's faced adversity. She's also gotten a win.

So I like that sort of experience in a field where a

lot of these horses are coming out of one, maybe 2 races.

Anyone else stand out in this race maybe at a longer odds that

you think am I crazy to like a Liam in the dust out on the

outside of Liam's daughter of Liam's map, for example, Luis

aggressive rider. So I think he kind of mitigates

that 14 spot just by being aggressive out of the gate.

Yeah, yeah, no, I I think that the horse makes a lot of sense.

And Louis, you all have to take seriously to Churchill, I think

and like it. Just the Liam's Map pedigree,

the one turn mile should actually fit perfect.

The the other horse I really like is the number six.

Pretty sure for Brendan Walsh. This is one who debuted at Ellis

Park and just looks so good doing it does need to probably

get a little bit faster, but you're getting 12 to one odds

and I just think this horse has the opportunity to take another

step forward. You mentioned that Ellis Park

program. I, I just think Brendan, the

buzz around Kentucky was Brendan's got a lot of nice 2

year olds and so this was kind of one of them I thought who

really stood out to me and look again, a little bit of a price

at 12 to one. I think we're going to have a

situation in the in the state next summer.

Speaking of this 2 year old program, Matthew that I was

talking with Dale Romans last week at Kentucky Downs and he

thinks there's a purse increase coming at Ellis Park that's

going to make it not worth it to ship to New York with your two

year olds. Interesting.

So he thinks, you know, something like, you know,

they'll get to 8085 on the maidens.

And at that point, like, what is the actual value of shipping to

New York? And you know this because, you

know, you're behind the scenes on this stuff.

Shipping a horse ain't what it used to be, man.

It is not as easy as it once was.

That company is not back in business yet running the horses

around in planes. And so it is, it is a very

different thing to get a horse from, you know, Turfway Park or

Keeneland or whatever to Saratoga than it is to get them

to Ellis. And so I, I wonder if perhaps

he's right. We'll see even more of an

expansion of that program next summer.

What do you make of a horse that just one right in front of you

up there in the landing in Kimchi Cat Tyler, Obviously

three wins on the card immediately yesterday for Tom

Amos in this one. This is what Tom Amos does well,

by the way, Philly's how ones especially gets them ready for

things like the Kentucky Oaks. Do you like?

Her, I do like her actually quite a bit.

She was really impressive and that that Bolton landing we

should mention was an awful but yeah, still very.

It was still a very good field though overall.

You got a bitch a doll in there who I thought was a pretty good

runner, and so you had some nice horses in that race and it

wasn't that short of a field. I think he's still 8 runners in

there, so it was a really good effort.

I think she's a pretty serious contender in this spot.

She got the best of my choice, Lakara in the maiden special

weight ranks. You know, obviously stretching

out to a mile. We'll just have to see kind of

how that goes. But listen, she's a serious

contender in this sort of race. You're absolutely right, Tom.

You know, that's the other thing about two year olds.

Going back to what we were talking about earlier, there are

certain trainers that you just trust with two year olds and Tom

is one of those. And certain trainers are better

with the Philly, the Colts. And so there are just certain

people you just go, you know, just this trainer knows how to

get these horses ready early. They tend to be able to spot

precocious runners and it just, you know, those things tend to

fit together and it's not a mistake, but the same trainers

tend to have a lot of success in these types of races.

That's right, Matthew DeSantis with us at Failed the Menace on

Twitter. Go find him there.

The Iroquois Race 10, same course, same money a mile on the

dirt for $300,000 open field here for two year olds.

A couple coming in. Owen Almighty is, I got to say

this, Matthew, and I don't know if you saw my tweet, but Kevin

Kirstein essentially said that Owen Almighty is the buzz horse.

And here's what we. Got Oh interesting.

So here's what we got to do. I'm not ready for a world where

I got to deal with a buzz horse every race.

I can't do this. I'm not cut for it.

I cannot emotionally take this on.

And so, Kevin, Christine, if you're listening, we, we need to

not do this anymore. And I just, and, and by we, I

mean, can you not, can you block me on that tweet or something

like I just like, I can't, I can't do this, Matthew.

It's not something that I'm capable of undertaking as a buzz

horse here. But he's, he's actually really

good too. So it's total thinking, Yeah.

I remember when Anna Marie was a buzz horse before the Kentucky

Derby and you know, that didn't really work out for anybody and

it hasn't worked out for. Buzz horse I can remember was

Danza because he hit the board in the Derby.

That's the one I can remember that was actually a good one.

Is that? Yeah, that's it.

Yeah, it's just again, this goes to a horse can look amazing in

the morning and all in almighty certainly I mean Tutu want to

stake so very competent and deserving morning line favorite.

But until they break, you never know what's going to happen.

And when they're facing the toughest company they face to

this point, I think it's absolutely legitimate to

question, you know, OK, the horse looks good, but we just,

we got to see and I really like Jonathan's Way and it's a horse

that I saw again up in person and that course fits the profile

that I described earlier. Had some significant issues

coming out of the gate, was pinched back to 2nd to last

place early and just made a move.

You do not see 2 year olds make at Saratoga, which is I'm going

to go 5 wide and just circle the entire field despite being 45

lengths back. And I'm going to do it around

the turn and it doesn't matter and I'm just going to blow

everybody away. I mean, it was he as impressive

as Ferocious and Chancellor Mcpatrick were in their maiden

wins. I thought Jonathan's way was

equally as impressive in his. I think I doubt you're going to

get 9:00 to 2:00 on that horse, but I just think Phil Bauer has

got a really nice group this year and that's a horse.

If you can get even 3 to one, I think it's a really good value

in this race. Last year we watched W Saratoga

win this race under Rafa Bajirano.

He's on 1st Resort at 12 to one. He was in the Saratoga Special,

a son of Uncle MO Obviously the mile ain't going to bother him

for Ian Hardy. What do you think of his chances

here? What did he look like in that

race? He had the lead for a while,

seemed to fade at the end. Are you, are you dissuaded by

that performance or do you think he can get back to good form and

get the mile? No, I think he can get the mile

and I'm not dissuaded by that performance.

And sometimes courses you'll see this where the first time they

maybe go a distance or maybe, you know, just it's not unusual

to see a horse that's two years old fade and then come back in

the next race and look strong and they're just building up

that foundation. It takes time.

And so I'm never really that persuaded when I see a 2 year

old fade in a race and then they stretch out or they go a little

bit longer because as you said, the pedigree, the pedigree would

suggest this horse can go longer.

I think First Resort is a pretty serious contender.

Grace, you're getting a pretty honest price in this spot.

So definitely a horse that I included in my top four in my

analysis. So one that I like a lot and

I'll probably be using in some variation of ticket either, you

know, in verticals or horizontals.

There's a very nice, old, nice looking older man who listens to

this show named Bill and he has a question for you, young

Matthew Desanis. He would like to know what you

think about Sandman, who just broke his maiden at Saratoga.

Sandman was a very popular maiden winner and it led to a

variety of Metallica based tweets for me on social media of

Exit Light. Enter Sandman.

But listen, it was it was an impressive win and I'll tell you

what's impressive about and why I think he's going to like the

mile. It was more of a grinder and I

actually like that in in big. I like that type stretching out

usually because it wasn't this sort of big bold move that you

go well, was it like the pace set up there like we talked

about politically correct, you know, horse that made this huge

move and won the bachelor Manor earlier this summer.

But you go, well, the pace absolutely collapsed in this

race and, you know, you wonder sometimes how that sort of stuff

affected Sandman looks very professional second time out.

But we came out of a very productive debut race.

And I just think that running style is going, you know,

stretching out to an extra furlong.

I think it's going to set up really well.

Six to one. You're getting a little bit of

value. I'll be interested to see again

how the board looks come post time because I think Jonathan's

way is going to take money. If Kevin keeps tweeting about

Owen Almighty, he might go off of the even money and do it.

Kevin, we got to see where. Yeah, exactly.

We got to see where some of those other horses end up

floating up or down and and Sandman certainly could present

some really nice value. All right, well, he's Matthew

DeSantis. He's with Naira Bets at Failed

to Menace on Twitter. What should people be looking

for? Because I know you've got a

preview this day up as well. Yeah, we got a preview of the

Iroquois and the Pocahontas up on Naira Pets.

Well, actually just finished on Naira Pets YouTube up later

today is going to be capping the card where I get my top pick, my

top value play for all 11 races at Churchill on Saturday.

Also have a preview of the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational up

here at Belmont at the Big A taking place tomorrow.

And then I was joined by Jeff Pratt up at Woodbine, and we

previewed the four grade one races at Woodbine taking place

on Saturday, including the EP Taylor, which is absolutely

stacked. And that's up on the Nighter Bet

YouTube channel as well. So a lot of stuff, whether

you're playing Churchill, Belmont or Woodbine, we got you

covered. By the way, late sequence at

Aqueduct today starting race five 11/10/11, 12:15 and 11:00

horses. That's fun, people.

Yep. So there you go.

And by the way, tomorrow is going to be exactly the same.

I think it's 11/11/12 and 13. Excellent.

Yeah, good. No, that means I got multiple

places since we check it out. That's great.

All right, that's DeSantis. Get them out of here.

Thank you, Matthew. All right.

Thanks, Louie. There.

You go Matthew DeSantis.