Matthew Desantis | Whitney Day

We bring in Matthew DeSantis from Naira to talk all things

Whitney. Matthew, are you wearing a hat?

I'm I'm not wearing a hat. And I hear I thought we were

talking about a Santa boy Downs Louie.

I didn't know we were talking about Saratoga.

All right, you know you got me a little off.

Guard listen, once in a while you got to slum it.

You got to leave a Santa boy and go to Saratoga.

It is what it is. The people demand it.

It is what it is. They love those lower tier

tracks like Saratoga. It is what it is.

All right, so he's Matthew DeSantis at failed to Metis on

Twitter. Find him up there at Naira bets

as well of course. Look man, big card tomorrow.

Where do you rank Whitney Saturday amongst the the big

Saturdays at Saratoga? I'll be honest, the last couple

of years I think it's really challenging the Travers for

being the preeminent weekend of the meet.

And you know part of that is also the OBS or the Phase Tipton

sales that happened the that Sunday and Monday.

The New York sales are the following weekend.

So you get a lot of different people from the industry coming

into Saratoga, but just anecdotally, it is crazy the

number of and you know, colleagues from different tracks

that I have coming in to Saratoga for this weekend.

So Whitney, last year I think we had 42,000.

It feels like we're going to have another big crowd on

Saturday. And it's it's definitely one of

those really special weekends up here.

Make Saratoga. It's just quite the place to be.

Whitney's also turned into a really good predictor for who's

going to be at least a problem in the Breeders Cup between

white and Barrio Knicks go in the last couple of years, Gun

runner, of course, in 2017. Do you think that we're we're

looking at a potential Breeders' Cup Classic winner in this

field? I mean big field of 12.

Yeah, I think we might be. And and certainly, you know, you

have to start with the morning line favorite national treasurer

who, yeah, just seems like he's continued to take a step forward

as he's gotten older. You know, won the previous as a

three-year old, but really ripped off, you know, winning

the Pegasus World Cup this year to kick off his four year old

campaign. And then I thought ran a really

good race over in the Saudi Cup, finishing fourth.

But, you know, sitting right on that really blistering pace.

And closers were the ones who won that one.

But he stayed on for 4th. And then just blowing out the

field in the Met Mile. Bob Baffert's got him ready to

roll. And, you know, he's he's

certainly formidable. But I think you look at some

other horses in this race and you know, whether you're looking

at a horse like Bright Future, who I think Todd Pletcher is

really high on, you know, a horse like Arthur's ride for

Bill Mott is very aggressively placed coming into this even,

you know, I know Brad Cox has big expectations for his runner

First Mission as well. So I think there's some very

serious horses in this race who we're going to see in that

Breeders' Cup Classic. Matthew DeSantis with us at

Failed the Menace on Twitter. You can find him there.

He's with naira bets. I, you know, I think one of the

biggest consternations on horse racing Twitter, of which there

are thousands is is this division is this older two turn

dirt male, you know, thing and the I feel like we've had a

bunch of acceptably good races this year in the division.

Do you agree? IA 100% agree and I this is a

distinction that I try to make sometimes between what is maybe

a, you know, there's not a flight line, there's not a life

is good. We know that, but that doesn't

mean they're not great betting races and that they're not great

races just to watch and they're thrilling races because I don't

think there's necessarily an elite horse in this division,

but they're all pretty evenly matched and I think it presents

outstanding opportunity for betters.

I think it makes great finishes for fans and they do kind of

take turns sometimes beating each other and there's not

necessarily a clear cut hierarchy.

So I think as a horse player, I'd much rather have a field

like this than a six horse field with Flight Line as a one to

nine favorite. And we can all go Gaga over a

horse like Fly Line and God knows I did when when he was

running. But this is a very evenly

matched division. And, you know, certainly, you

know, we don't like to see some of the early retirements of the

three-year old that would, you know, help populate this

division if they remain running at 4:00.

But I think we have to celebrate horses like Skippy Long Stocking

who stick around and disarm, who comes back at 4 National

Treasure, who comes back and, you know, Brad Cox, you know,

keeping first mission running and, you know, horse like

Croupy, who really, you know, for Todd Pletcher, he's a

beautiful long shot. But that's a horse that really

just started figuring things out at four years old, it feels

like. So I, you know, I think there's

plenty to celebrate this division.

Matthew DeSantis with us up there at Saratoga.

Who wins the race and how many horses in this race would you

include in say, like a Pick 4? Yeah, I'd probably include maybe

3 or 4IN in a pick sequence. I'd probably include National

Treasure defensively a little bit.

The horse that I'm a little out on is First Mission.

I just don't think he know. I don't think he gets the

distance against this caliber of competition.

You know, he won the Grade 3S6 going a mile and an eighth, but

that field was nothing compared to what he's facing here.

And I just don't know the trip he's going to work out

necessarily in this spot. The horse that I ultimately

landed on was the number nine Bright Future at 5:00 to 1:00.

This is a horse coming back from a lengthy layoff one last time

out in the Salvatore Mile. I was there that day on Haskell

Preview Day and that was an impressive race.

Horse looked like he was done around the turn and then

straightens up for home. Javier Castellano gives him a

tap on the butt and man, that horse just took off through the

rail and just hit his best ride late.

This horse fired by Curlin can absolutely run for days.

Won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year at a mile and 1/4.

And I think important to point out outside of National

Treasure, he is the only other Great One winner in this field.

So I think, you know, gives you a little bit of class. 5:00 to

1:00 in the morning line. Matthew DeSantis with us

previewing tomorrow's card at Saratoga.

Let's go back to the beginning of that pick five sequence.

Race 7 is the Saratoga Derby Invitational.

It's grade 1600 K. We're on the Bougie Melon turf

course. I don't know if you know this

about me, Matthew, but I had a shtick for a long time in the

happy hour where I would, I would badmouth all of the bougie

things in horse racing. So I would make fun of

Keeneland. I would make fun of the Mellon

turf course. You know, anything with a name,

anything that was nice, I would make fun of it.

But now that we don't have a turf course in Louisville, I'm

nice to turf courses. I by the way, I thought, I

thought of you immediately. Last night we came up with a new

term for the turf course at Churchill Downs.

Are you ready for it? I'm ready for it.

OK, so just replace the D with AT in dirt.

It's the tert course. I like that.

Yeah, yeah. That was an unintentional

outcome of talking with Danis the last night.

So the tert course. I'm going to have to start

working that into my analogy. A little Saratoga Derby

Invitational grade one. We get the usual two shippers, a

Charlie Appleby and Aiden O'Brien.

I'll be honest, I'm going to give White Palomino on the

outside a chance here. Horse has never been worse than

third place's entire run, as you know in any race.

Been a grade two, Grade 1 fields the last two times out lost by a

head. I think this is a great chance

at probably closer to 6:00 to 1:00 because it is a Chad Brown

Flavian Pratt to get some value in this race.

Where did you land? It's funny, maybe great minds

think alike because that was where I landed as my top pick in

this race was White Palomino. Listen, Diego Velasquez is going

to take a ton of money for Aiden O'Brien coming over, but

important to point out this horse ran two weeks ago.

This is a quick turn around coming out of what was a

relatively weak Group 3. If you talk to the people over

there who follow European racing and, you know, certainly a

talented horse, but one that I, I think you could absolutely

beat in this field. And I've never been overwhelmed

by legend of Time, the Charlie Appleby horse, a perfectly fine

horse, but I, you know, won the Pennine Ridge 2 back.

But I, I just don't know if that horse is really as elite as some

of Charlie's other horses, particularly at Philly.

He's got run into name, name today named Cinderella's Dream.

So yeah, I landed on White Palomino.

And part of the reason is I really like a horse like Izzy

Doro and even Cucino being in this race because I think White

Palomino is actually best tracking the pace.

And the last two times that was kind of forced to be on the

lead. And I don't know if that horse

actually does his best running on the lead.

Ran well both times out. But I think if you go back to

looking at that maiden breaking victory was at this distance and

tracked the pace. And I think that's what Plavian

Pratt's going to do. And nobody's riding the turf

better than Flavian right now. So I'm a big fan of White

Palomino. Buyer speed figures have gotten

progressively faster every single time out.

The other grade one up there is the test race, 87 furlongs on

the dirt, a half million bucks for Phillies and mares that are

three or excuse me, for Phillies and mares for three-year old

Phillies. Look, this is this is one of

those races that I think I always look forward to every

year because by this point we know we largely know what the

three-year old Phillies want to do as far as routing or go and

more of a spread. And we've got a Ways and Means

in here that I think is a perfect example of that where

they tried her over the two turns, both in the Gulfstream

Park Oaks, the Kentucky Oaks, of course, but she won the spin

away last year at Saratoga. Usually horses like this Matthew

don't necessarily translate from 2:00 to 3:00 and she really has

runs a huge race in an allowance last time.

Do you think she can repeat that performance?

It's a, it's a good question because that race that she ran

that you mentioned, the allowance race, it did come with

the addition of LASIK, but it was run more importantly over

Belmont Stakes Racing Festival weekend up here at Saratoga.

And we have seen a lot of horses running over that weekend come

back with slightly slower speed figures in their next start.

So it's something to be concerned about.

That said, she could take a step back from that last race and

still win this race pretty easily.

So she seems like probably the single on the sequence, I think

for a lot of people, although Cogburn might very well be a

single as well in one of the later races.

I will say the horse that I'm most intrigued by seeing is the

number six Bright Work, who beat her in that spin away at

Saratoga last year and has not been seen since the Breeders Cup

Juvenile Phillies. I love that John Ortiz is

cutting her back to sprinting. That's where she's at her best.

And yes, Johnny Velasquez aboard.

And there's no rider better at getting horses to relax on the

lead than Velasquez. You know, Bright Work is going

to be the commanding speed in this race, going to be very

keyed up after a long layoff. Johnny is able to calm those

horses down on the front end. And I'll be honest, there's not

a lot of other early speed and and he could very well end up

just kind of loose on the lead doing what Johnny does, which is

setting his fractions. And Bright Work is a horse that

has shown a lot of grit in the past and she could easily dig in

on this track and make it pretty tough.

But and she's 6 to 1, so she's one that I probably would use in

an exact in some way with Ways and Means as my top choice.

My. Horse in that in that race is

actually my main squeeze the five.

If we're going to get one that's going to come from a different

spot. You know they try her in the

acorn last out mile and an eighth doesn't like the two

turns won the 8 bells before that in the slop for sure.

But you know that one turn mile in the Matty May at Aqueduct,

she wins that race. I wonder if she's just more of

A1 turn type. And so I'll be interested to see

what Luis Saez, who's frankly, I, it's, it's OK to say, Lou, I

think Luis is, is riding well. I think he's not getting the

caliber of, of mount that other people are.

So that 6% you see isn't, isn't very good.

I, I won't lie about that. But there's a reason he's 14%

for the year still, despite, you know, almost 70 starts up there

at Saratoga. The lure is the next race.

Is this your spread race in the sequence?

100% because as much as More than Looks is an impressive

horse for Cherie Devoe. Much like bright work, we have

not seen this horse since Breeders' Cup weekend.

And I, you know, Cherie is very, very good at getting these

horses ready off the layoff and absolutely and, and the

placement speaks to confidence. But the far outside post I think

does give you a little bit of pause.

And I'll be honest, the horse, you know #1 Kubrick for Chad

Brown is I think an interesting option in this race with Frankie

Notori aboard. And that one is, you know,

working out pretty well up here. And, you know, I think you can

draw a line through the Maker's Mark Mile, which was just a way

tougher than this horse wanted to face.

But, you know, ran a really good race in debut in North America.

And then last time out, I feel like that was a little bit of a

merry go round racetrack. Nobody did any passing that day.

Gets the inside and is going to be able to save ground.

And I I think that one an 8 to one.

I don't much like white Palomino.

I don't think you get 8 to one on this horse.

Probably 5:00 or 6:00 to 1:00. But I think an interesting

choice and an alternative as my top pick in this one.

I think with the with some of the moisture you have up there,

I think smoking tea is actually really interesting in here as

well. John Velasquez clearly pointing

this horse again toward Kentucky Downs.

This will be his first run since June 1st in the Arlington here

on the turret at Churchill Downs.

But I do think, I think there's a chance, man, that that horse

jumps up and defends his his, his title a. 100 percent, 100%

agree with that. Because if you remember, last

year's lore was over a yielding surface.

Well. No problem at all and and won

that race over Dakota Golden portfolio companies nice horses

and you know, has been facing tougher quite frankly and and is

a grade 3 winner and you know, won the Appleton earlier this

year down at Gulfstream Park. So this is a really good horse

for Sugar Mcgahee. Another with Johnny Velaska

aboard and I really like that last 20 July 27th, 48 second

bullet work down at Fair Hills over the synthetic.

Always love seeing that. Yeah, no, I think he he looks

good coming in for sure. The son of Warfront old Smoking

T Troy is the last race we'll talk about race 10/5 and 1/2 on

the Bougie Melon turf course they're at at Saratoga. 300K and

the Kitty here for the Grade 2 Cogburn's in here man.

And this is a horse that set the world record last time that he

went in the J per before that of course wins the turf Sprint over

the turret at Churchill Downs as well.

What do we think of him as this? I mean, it's the last night said

essentially he'd have to fall down twice to lose this race.

It's going to be tough because it is.

It's hard to get past him because of his versatility.

He can win on the lead, he can win tracking the pace, he can

win closing from well off the pace.

He can win over a soft track, he can win over a firm track.

I mean, this horse has so many different plans that it does.

It gives I rat Ortiz Junior so many options depending on how

things, you know, start at the break.

And it makes him different from horses like Golden Powell and

Caravel, who if their plan A wasn't up to snuff, they didn't

really have a Plan B all the time.

He's got a plan, BCD and E, he's ready for anything and he just

looks heads and shoulders above this field and and it's it's

going to be hard to get around him, even with potential rain in

the forecast and maybe a softer ground to run over.

Your your YouTube page doesn't have me on it yet but I'm sure

it's good. How do people find it?

Absolutely it is the naira bets YouTube.

You can just go check it out if you search naira bets on

YouTube. We had Louis on talking to

Cinepoy Downs on on Tuesday. Night on.

Yeah, absolutely so. But we have race previews, full

card analysis, and we also have great handicapping and betting

tutorials for beginners and a lot of great insights for tracks

not just up here in New York but all across the country.

You know, what I learned on your show on Tuesday was I need to do

a horse racing and cigar podcast because you don't you and I are,

are friends by proxy essentially through horse racing.

And I, I, I stopped drinking over a year ago.

I just thought it was something I needed to stop doing in my

life. And, and it's something that

people on this show that listen to the show are very tired of me

talking about. But I have discovered after like

10 DMS of being on in the Cineboya Downs show on Tuesday

that I need to start talking cigars.

Like that's something I just actually need to do is we used

to do bourbon tasting. I need to be doing cigar

tastings now instead. And so I got to figure that out

somehow. But he's Matthew.

DeSantis, Yeah, when they're dragging the pot for another,

you know, 20 minutes at a Cinaboy.

That's exactly right. That we can fill.

Oh man, yeah, sell some kind of package where you get you get

cigars sent to your house with the with the with the form or

something, you know something like.

That but anyway all. Right.

Well, he's Matthew DeSantis that failed the menace on Twitter.

Find all the good stuff over there, Naira bets on YouTube and

all those things as well. He'll get out the big board for

you if you ask. How about that, Matthew?

We'll talk to you soon, buddy. Alright, thanks so much, Luke.

Alright, see you there you go. Bad to say it's up there.

Naira bats at Phil de Menace as well.

Fun card there at at Saratoga tomorrow.