Pegasus WC ’26 | Brian Nadeau

Gulfstream Park morning line maker Brian Nadeau joined Louie on ESPN Louisville to preview the late sequence at GP.

The Pegasus World Cup is Race 13.

Full Transcript

Looking at the Pegasus races, wanting to get the man in here

who makes the morning lines there at Gulfstream Park.

His name is Brian Nadeau joins us from down there.

You can also find his work capital OTB if you want to go

find them on the socials as well.

Brian, good morning man. It's that time of year.

Good to have you back. Lily, good to talk to you as

always and pre J you have me. Yeah, it is time here.

Pegasus. Pegasus World Cup weekend.

Good stuff. Do you feel the intensity kind

of pick up at your place after this obviously leading into the

Florida Derby? Yeah, it's you feel it, you feel

it and you see it and there's a vibe and, you know, there's a

lot of construction, so to speak, you know, with different

things going in and out and the buzz is here.

So yeah, we've had a good start, certainly to the championship

meet. But it really, really gets going

this weekend when when, you know, it's our first big, big

Saturday and we've probably got four of them.

Certainly thought the youth and Florida Derby, but even next

week the Holy Bowl that really starts.

It's funny, you know, you got the Pegasus this week and

everybody looks forward to the that.

And as soon as it's over, it's it's, you know, Florida slash

Kentucky Derby time with the holy balls.

So yeah, it's cool time. We'll have to bother Sam next

week or something. He's Brian to tell joins us from

down there at Gulfstream Park. Obviously, you know, the Eclipse

Awards last night as well leading into this weekend.

You know, the 10th rendition of this.

You and I talked on Blood Horse Monday this week.

But, you know, just looking back at this race, what it's

developed into, you know, that Turf Series as well, it's really

turned into a nice weekend, Brian.

Yeah, I think the turf races have have added to it to be

sure. I mean when we started, when

they started I was not here but you know, with Arrogate winning

the first one, all the millions on the line.

But then, you know, it was still kind of sort of the Don

Handicap. And then now with the, you know,

the Turf being added five years ago or so, and now the Philly

Mare Turf, I think it's just really made it an

all-encompassing kind of day. And both races have really,

really been supported nicely. And it just, it bolsters what's

already a huge day of racing. Yeah, no, fantastic stuff.

Brian Adele with us from down there at Gulfstream Park,

Pegasus Day tomorrow, big numbers expected pick 6.

All the fun stuff for sure Wanted to pick your brain about

a couple of these races. But you know, Monday you even

mentioned just I don't want to call it a match race because you

know, they don't run these things on paper.

But that Hooper in race 8 we get the emergence of the one horse

in there. He'll break from the rail in

Life and Times didn't get his first start until December of

his four year old year. Quick two and O for Todd

Pletcher, of course, Knightsbridge and here for Bill

Mott. You made Knightsbridge the six

to five favorite 8 to 5 for Life and Times.

Is that how you personally about those two horses?

Yeah, I mean, it could also be a post position kind of race to

the fact that Knights Bridge has drawn outside Life and Times

gives him a massive, massive edge.

And he's he's proven, I don't want to sit here and say

Knightsbridge has ever beaten any real horses either, but he's

proven as a graded stakes winner now where you know, life, that

Life and Times as good as he's looked is winning at, you know,

maiden at Aqueduct and, and, and A1 exit Aqueduct.

So the waters are tremendously deeper.

And here on Saturday and and Knightsbridge now is for the

first time really, and his life actually is putting together a

campaign. He's going to run 3 races in a

row and and he was good last time.

He didn't beat much, but he was good winning the Grade 3 Mr.

Prospector. So I, it's, it's oddly enough,

it's a, it's a race that is probably more important to

Knightsbridge because you can you could say it like the times

he could almost get a pass if he runs a nice second.

You know, it's his first start against real horses, first start

in the stakes race, Whereas Knightsbridge he he kind of sort

of has to deliver in this spot as, as the house horse who's

already won a graded stakes race.

So I'm really, really looking forward to it and, and, and

seeing what happens when you know, for the first time ever,

Life and Times gets looked in an in the eye by a real horse.

What's he going to have? Life and Times only ever run the

one turn mile. That's what they run at

Gulfstream Park as well on the Hooper will be a mile on the

dirt there later in the card. Are those those World Cup

Invitational races? Race 10 is the Philly and mare

side of things and I think is this the race?

Is 9 to 2 the favorite in here as the as the lowest number.

You make the morning lines down there.

Boy, how often do you make 9 to 2 the favorite?

Yeah, not often. I mean, it's an impossible race.

You could really come up with six to eight different horses

that that could be favored in this race.

But regardless, like whoever it is and you know, you've got

Pratt and Brown calling the shots with whiskey decision.

Whoever is the favorite Louis, I think we can probably all agree

this is going to be the best betting race of of the entire

weekend probably anywhere for that matter.

You could make a case for honestly, the longest shot on

the morning line is is perfect. Cheryl ready for Cheryl, Excuse

me and she's got about the best pedigree of any horse on the

ground on Saturday. You could really make a case for

for any one of these horses trip and pace and quite frankly, luck

is going to play a lot of a lot into it.

Yeah, it's a fascinating 1. Is there one that does stand out

to you in here or are you is is there, you know, like a Justino

Dioro coming out of a recent race at at Gulfstream Park?

Does local form matter to you when you look at these races?

I don't think local form matters. 22 part answer.

I don't think it's ever a bad thing, but I don't think local

in this particular race, local form matters because I think our

horses are, are a little up against it.

Now these three-year olds that are now 4 that, you know, Doro

and, and one more they, they, they obviously have room for

improvement and they have more upside.

So, so that's a factor. But these horses to me are a

little bit slow. Corval Doro, who won the local

prep, I think I had her. I think I had her as the second

choice in on the morning line in in the local prep prep, the

Swanee River. And they didn't bet a nickel on

her. She was somehow 12:50, which

tells me that she was probably a pretty short horse.

And even Jose D'Angelo said, I think Michael Ivor on said it

too. We're you know, we're eyeing the

Pegasus. So I would expect her to be a

lot tighter on Saturday. I don't know if that's going to

quite be good enough though, because these are obviously a

cut above what what all the locals be in those prep races.

Caitlin, her greatness is making the trip down from Woodbine and

with a stop there at the Synthetic Championships at

Turfway Park, we saw her run at a mile and seven furlongs before

that. Going to have to go a little bit

further here. What do you make of her chances

on the turf here? Yeah, I mean, she's one of those

horses that you wouldn't fall over if she was a favorite in

this race. Obviously, we know the namesake,

so people are going to gravitate to that.

She's got a lot of form. I mean, Kevin Attard is a sharp,

sharp guy. They've hide this race.

She will have to you know, she will have to prove it outside of

of of her woodbine, you know, but she she wasn't certainly

wasn't embarrassed behind. She feels pretty in in the QE 2

at Keeneland in 2024. She's probably a little better

horse now. She's one of those horses at on

on paper at least, is going to sit the right kind of trip.

You want on the turf here. You want to be close, not going

to make up significant ground weight.

So she's one of those horses that I think if you know, if

you're spreading, you mentioned that the horizontals, there's a

rainbow mandatory on Saturday, which I love by the way, not

Sunday. I I'd be hard pressed to play a

serious ticket without a horse like car on it.

Breath Away is in this field as well.

Always seen Murphy in the ride. Several races frankly on

Saturday as well. What do you what do you make a

hippie into town? Yeah, I think it's cool.

We've seen him here in the past, obviously a world class European

rider, turf rider obviously. So I think that adds that that

that's kind of a good, almost good overall kind of umbrella

for Pegasus Day. That's the, you know, you get

European horses in the past, you get European star riders as

well. We've had Frankie Datori in the

past and you know, Koolmore Philly came over and won the

race a few years ago. So I, I think that's really what

Pegasus World Cup day has morphed into and what we, we

love having those guys around. David Egan's written here now, I

believe three winters in a row and he has really stepped up

this winter and he's a good young kid that rides over there,

you know, in Europe and in the summer.

So it it certainly has developed into a world class International

Day. Writer info starts the late pick

three tomorrow at Gulfstream Park.

We're talking with Brian Nadeau. He sets the morning lines there

and you'll see him on the telecast as well.

Indy Bay nine to two. Jodi's Pride 4 to 1.

And you know, it's a wide open race because the horse coming

off turf and the first lady is the favorite here.

But I happen to agree, I think Jodi's Pride is probably the

horse to beat here. We saw her before, of course, in

other like the Ruffian, for example, where I think if she

turns in that kind of performance, she's the winner in

this one. Another pretty wide open race,

LeBron. That's a beast of a race.

Exactly. I mean, 4 to 1 morning line

favorite. So it's a tough, tough race

again. I think our horses are a little

bit up against it. Sterling silver won the prep.

The Rampart cuts back. Those horses ran a mile that

day. They're going to go to 7 here.

The one horse I'm going to fool around with Louis is the is the

sex beyond belief, who just dominated by the length of the

stretch last time here at the distance, admittedly against

tons, tons lesser. And you know, she takes Lasix

off today. That can be a little bit of an

elephant in the room for some of these horses.

But that was an awesome performance.

Does she bounce? Does it come back to her?

Yeah, she probably could. And she might not be good

enough, but the price is going to be right.

And, and again, another one of these races where pretty much

any horse in this race is, is showing a race at some point in

their career that is good enough to win this race or close enough

where if they improve the younger horses, they can win

this race. So it's another doozy.

The racing office did a phenomenal job putting together

a, a deep and competitive card. And you know, you're gambler,

we're gamblers. That's that's what more can you

ask for? No, that's exactly right.

I really like Grand job in here, the 11 coming out of a an under.

Frankly not a good below her standard performance at

Churchill Downs, but seems to really like Gulfstream Park.

Should enjoy getting back there. The Royal Delta 2nd place runner

over a mile and a 16th last year.

I think getting to the one turn here is probably what she wants

to do a little bit more. That daughter of justified late

double starts with the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf

Invitational Mile and an eighth down there on the green stuff at

at Gulf St. Park.

This is one of those. We did a, you know, a bit of a

handicapping ground table on my podcast last night and I, I

wonder if we're just overthinking this one and

program trading isn't just the best horse here.

Yeah, I I couldn't agree more. Just to let everybody know is

where it was just Friday. Obviously we're off the turf

again today. Now the weather looks great and

there's no more rain expected. But I I think we'll I think it's

very clear that the turf will have give in it tomorrow might

be firm, OK, but it's not going to be the the Gulfstream firm

paved Hwy. that we might be, you know, used to at the

championship meet. So we'll have some give to it.

So just just take note of that. I, I still think it'll be

speedy, but that's definitely something worth monitoring.

But you hit a hit on something. Really, there's some nice horses

in here. I don't want to, I don't want to

disparage anybody, but we're, we're, we're talking about a

horse that that is a serious, serious racehorse.

And I tried to get him down to 2 and I couldn't, I couldn't make

it because it's a big difference between 5:00 to 2:00 and 2:00 to

1 points wise and all that. But this race just absolutely

firmly goes through program trading.

This is just a vintage Chad Brown Seth Klarman turf horse

that they've taken their time with a layoff of over a year.

And you know, quite honestly, the master horseman that Chad

is, he's gotten this horse back to as good, if not better than

ever. You know, he was kind of, he's

probably stuck between a rock and a hard place in the Breeders

Cup. Maybe he's not a mile and a half

horse, but he's probably, he's not a Miller either.

But Mile Nate's going to hit him right between the eyes, and

somebody's going to have to run the race of their life to beat

him. Cabo Spirit might be that horse

for me. I think he's capable of getting

the lead and money. Mike Smith on the front might be

the thing that gets him there. Very good in the San Gabriel.

Last out of course didn't quite get there in the Seabiscuit

before that, but there's a horse that's been very, very

competitive high level races on the West Coast.

How well do you think Cabo Spirit can run in this one and

how do you how do you try to analyze horses shipping from

California? Yeah, well, he, he, he is.

You're going to get loose. I don't think there's any doubt

about that. You know, Mike's never seen a

pace he doesn't want to get involved in.

And there's not a lot in here, Louis.

And he's California speed, you know, there's no doubt about

that. So he is, on paper, supposed to

be not only in front, but supposed to be controlling.

I always felt like he was a cut below.

But I think you have to take note.

You mentioned the San Gabriel. He got at Santa Anita, it had

some cut that day. And I think that's noteworthy

because normally a California horse that's, you know, you want

to talk about highways, that's what they typically run on out

there on the turf. It's, you know, never got any

gift to it. Well, the fact that

unfortunately Santa Anita had all that, but that rained this

this winter, December into January and the fact that he got

to run on it in the San Gabriel, I think it's a feather in his

cap. I still wonder at the end of the

day is I don't know if I can close my eyes and envision Cabo

Spirit as the Pegasus World Cup Turf winner.

I just kind of feel like that's going to be a bridge too far for

him. Pegasus World Cup Invitational

closes the car rate 16 tomorrow at Gulfstream Park.

Brian Nadeau with us. That's the morning lines there.

You'll see him on the broadcast as well. 3,000,000 bucks on the

line here for and up a mile and an eighth is the distance.

That's also the length of the track there.

Gulfstream Park, if you've never been disco time installed as the

eight to five favorite here. Brian, according to the Morning

Line, he's the most likely favorite of the last couple of

races here. Do you agree with it?

Yeah. It's funny, I mean, he is a big

favorite in this race and he's actually the one that I didn't

pick. I picked the other two

favorites, WW and and then also program trading.

I did not pick disco time. I just we ran this race 10

times. He's the most likely winner of,

you know, six or seven of them. I think I don't think tough to

tough to think otherwise. But I didn't want to take the

short number. There's a lot of speed on paper

in the Pegasus World Cup. I mean a lot of speed and he's

on the inside. And if he's not part of it, he's

going to be darn close and it's going to get hot out there.

That pace to me is going to be hot.

So I, I, I wanted to look for someone not only that can come

from off the pace a little bit, but I think someone also that's

got a lot of upside. And it's actually a stablemate

to Pan St., who, I mean, I'm on record.

I thought his comeback was was, to be blunt, not very good.

I thought it was kind of ugly actually.

He thought he had to work really, really hard over a

marginal Listed stakes kind of horse.

He never looked comfortable. I did pull away a little bit

late, but then I went back and I said, you know what?

This was his first start since he beat the Horse of the Year,

Sovereignty in the Curling Florida Derby.

He's how cranked. Did Brad Cox have him?

You know, I'm thinking maybe 70%.

I don't, I don't know. And then I watched the workouts

leading into the Pegasus and he just looks so much better than

the horse that was working out prior to that December 19th

race. So I'm going to expect him to

improve. He's got it.

He's super slow, Louie. I mean, he's very slow on paper,

but I think he's going to make a big move forward and I like the

flow of this race for him and I like his price.

I mean, he's supposed to be probably third choice in this

race. I don't know if they're going to

bet why to barrio or not if people are kind of sick of that.

So maybe he could be second choice, but favorite's going to

be a pretty stiff number down on the inside.

And I think the Pants Street, at least from a flow perspective,

is going to get all the best of it.

So I'll take a shot with him. I'm fascinated by banishing in

here. He just, he does all everything

pretty well and something's not supposed he shows up in spots or

whatever else. I'm fascinated by him in here,

but I have to, I ask you before we let you go about the old man

himself, why Debarrio's in here? Do you think this is his last

race? What kind of chance do you give

him? I mean is there's good have at

it folks betting against the horse that's eight for 10

lifetime in the track. Yeah.

So here's like, here's the thing, you know, I mentioned,

you know, we're gambling here as a, as a, as a house horse, as a

horse that we grew up here with at Gulfstream Park as a Ford

Florida, former Florida Derby winner, as the Pegasus winner of

last year, looking to become the first horse ever to win the

Pegasus twice. I mean, how the hell can you not

root for him, right? I mean, it's, it's a great

story. That is Part 1.

Part 2 is we spend our money on this sport and we gamble and

come on, there's no way you can take this horse.

The way he got here is just not ideal.

He has not run since, you know, the nightmare that was a Jockey

Club Gold Cup. We know what happened at the

Breeders Cup. He missed his local prep here in

the Mr. Prospector, which parlayed him into a win in this

race last year. And I I would assume, I kind of

like to think I got this morning line, right.

I mean, you got Safi, it's Irad and a horse that everybody knows

that won this race last year. It's not like he's going to be

up there at 9:00 to 1:00, right? So he was 5 to.

One of the Breeders cup when he scratched.

Exactly. Of course he's.

Going to be 4 to water better. Yeah, of course.

Yeah. Right.

He might be lower, you know, if they don't.

Yeah. So no, not not for me, but I

will have no problem rooting like hell for him if he wants to

do it because he's a cool cool dude and and shows.

Up every time that's. Right, exactly.

Very easy horse to root there And, and it like I said, it's

cool that we kind of grew up with him around here, seeing him

win the Florida Derby back then. And it's just cool that they

brought him back this year. You know, this is a horse that,

OK, I know he's not, you know, by, by by Mr. Prospector or

anything, but this is a horse that normally would have been

retired three years ago. So I I respect that a lot as

well. My long shot to hit the board

here is brother Kenny from the 12.

I think he set up very well running style wise to at least

pick up a check here. Do you have a random long shot

for us to include in our tries? Yeah, I mean, I've heard the

banishing stuff. I guess I sounds like he's going

to be about 8 to one of his races.

Yeah, my, my funky horse would be poster.

I certainly don't think he can win, but I think he'll make a

dent late again. I think this race could fall

apart, which is a dangerous, dangerous thing to say because

it's very speedy out here, even at a mile and an eighth.

But my funky horse, Like if you love disco time and you're OK

singling him, my poster would be my underneath horse at a big

number. There you go a little cold

exacta there one and eight in the the old Pegasus.

Well, Brian, we appreciate you. I'm sure we'll be talking ahead

of these Derby preps next month month after all that leading

into the Florida Derby. Enjoy the weekend and we'll talk

to you soon. Sounds good, Louis.

Always a pleasure. Take care, man.

There you go, Brian and Nadeau, of course, Gulfstream Park, find

him a capital OTB as well. Guy I've really appreciated

because he always answers the phone.

He did two shows with me this week.

Nice guy that way for sure. 437-9680, keep them coming UPS,

jobs, text line. On the other end, we will get

into our usual end of our potpourri.

And Zach, we bring back everyone's favorite segment. 60

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