Road to the Preakness ’24 – Heft Stakes

I like my politics. I went from right to left there.

Welcome to the horse Racing Happy hour road to the Preakness

edition starting in late December, of course December

28th edition. Dan Elman from the Daily Racing

Forum joining us. Appreciate him very much.

And of course our guy from the Maryland thoroughbreds, his name

is John Kiasi joins us at their off.

You can find Dan online at DRF under score.

Dan Elman, if you are listening to this one, you're missing out.

You can check us out on Spotify, see all of our videos and of

course we have a YouTube channel that you can check out as well.

Boys welcome back in It's been a minute.

We hung out for Maryland Million Day.

Of course I saw Dan at San Anita for the the Breeders Cup.

How was your overall Breeders' Cup trip there?

Dan, very nice actually had a very good day on Friday.

I had a pretty fair day on Saturday, but you know it's it's

Breeders' Cup. There's really no such thing as

bad days, really great horse racing that week and I'm looking

forward to 2024, looking forward to this little mini road to the

Preakness. There you go.

We'll get going with those as well.

John. Anything you know, I, I talked

to Steve Kornacki, apparently your mom, big fan of Steve

before you guys came on to this show here we talked to Clips

Awards because we happen to both be Eclipse voters.

Horse of the Year for John Piasik was what?

I am firmly and unequivocally on Team Idiomatic.

You know she had a both campaign this year when I think 5 graded

stakes, 1A Major Mid-Atlantic Stakes in Delaware Handicap.

One of the. Breeders' Cup to staff, dance

every dance. And you know what we always talk

about? Oh, you know, nowadays horses

don't race as much as they should.

We always reward voices who have, like, light campaigns and

kind of take it easy. Here's a chance to award.

Of course you did well a lot. I mean, I know Cody's wish is

kind of the sentimental choice, but I am only anti sentimental.

I am. I am 100% on team idiomatic and

I am food to be disappointed. That is the first use of the

term anti sentimental on this show.

Danielman, tell him why that's a bad pick.

It's a terrible pick. I, I, I I mean I don't want John

to be the guy though. You know the guy that has the

one vote for idiomatic for horse of the year.

I don't want that to happen. But it's listen, I understand

what you're saying. It's nice to see these horses

run and champion older female, but it's either it's either

Cody's wish or White a barrio. You could probably go either

way. They faced each other twice.

White a barrio, whipped Cody's wish up at Saratoga, and Cody's

Wish beat White a barrio in the in the Metropolitan Handicap.

I guess I would go with Cody's wish, but I think there's no

wrong answer between those two. Yeah, I was going to vote for

rattle and roll, but hey, what are you going to do?

All right. So the no, I made a case

actually for him in top three of older dirt Bale just because of

that back-to-back Pimlico special and then running back at

Churchill 2 weeks later, that Pimlico Special.

Crushing many dreams, right, John?

Well, back in June, you know, back in June I was.

So it's John's connection, all right.

And Dan, you seem to not like my pick of rattle and roll in the

top three it. Is rattle and roll.

You know, there used to be an old saying, you know, and this

is way before your time when the giant Dodgers were, you know,

you know, battling it out in the 1920s or so.

And Bill Terry, the Great Hall of Fame first baseman for the

New York Giants, would would be asked about the Dodgers.

And he'd say the Dodgers still in the league.

And why is rattle and roll still in the league?

I mean, I guess he's coming back.

He ran an OK race in the Pimlico special.

I dare you to tell me who John can, but I dare you to tell me

who ran second in the Pimlico special.

And. He has speed bias because he

cost me about $2000 by not getting his nose out.

Sounds about right. It's it is the one race I saw in

person this year when I was there and I watched it and they

told me who the winner was and I didn't believe them at all.

Like there was no test. I I mean, I mean, you're telling

me that Elite Power isn't a finalist for Horse of the Year.

I mean, not going to win. But you know, I think you've got

3 finalists to Horse of the Year, and I think that they're

Cody's Wish. White Abario and Elite Power and

Idiomatic will be a very deserving older Philly and Mare

champion there. You go, all right, well, enough

eclipse talk. Let's get into what we are here

to do, which is to talk Marilyn circuit, get you ahead and ready

for the roads of the Preakness. Just so everybody knows, it's a

little different and the road to the Kentucky Derby.

There's a point system associated with the Derby and

those sorts of things. The Maryland Jockey Club puts

together this road starting this weekend with two races.

The the race for the girls is called the Gin Talking.

That'll be Race 7 on Saturday. And of course the heft is the

race for the boys on Saturday as well.

That'll be Race 8. Both races are 7 furlongs, so

you'll see them get progressively long longer,

excuse me, as the races go along.

Frankly, Maryland has the most logical path to its Derby race,

the Preakness. And so we will be cataloging

that once a month with the two guys that you see here, and

hopefully Mike will show back up at some point on this show.

All right, so let's get into it. We'll talk late Pit 4 here as we

go into it in just a minute. But Dan, I wanted to ask you

lots of different ways to talk about this.

One of the things we try to do in the fall predict which two

year olds are going to become good three-year olds, right?

And so it's pretty hard to do frankly, especially on the cold

side. Seems like there's a little more

consistency on the Philly side. But of course, last year showed

us that we didn't know anything. And So what is Dan Ulman looking

for this time of year for two? I'm looking for a horse that's

active, that's on the work tab, that hasn't been put away and

has disappeared for a while. A horse that has shown ability

to go two turns. A horse with a stout pedigree

and solid connections and I would have to say locked is a

horse that I'm really looking forward to seeing as a

three-year old for Todd Pletcher because he's already back on the

tab. He looks so good in his races

leading up to the Breeders Cup and I'm just not sure that Santa

Anita surface, which can be hard and speed favoring, really

played to his strengths in the Breeders Cup.

Juvenile. So if ever a horse gets a

Mulligan for a Breeders' Cup race, I think it's locked.

And if you're looking for just a Crazy Horse, we've seen Japanese

horses in the Kentucky Derby the last few years.

There's a pretty good one out there named Forever Young.

He's 3 for three. He's the points leader right now

in the Japan Road to the Triple Crown.

Two wins at a mile and an eighth one win at a mile.

His trainer was the guy that won the Two Breeders' Cup races back

at Delmar, so at least he knows how to ship and win.

We'll think he's a little bit better than Derma Sodagate.

We'll see if he runs. There you go.

How about for John Kiosk? What are you looking for at a 2

year old this time of year? I would say pretty much anyone

who's already won around two turns.

I think it's a big help and anyone who I would say ended

their season with a career best figure because you don't want to

have peak by now. God knows how much money has

already been burned on horses who won big races and like

August or September and then they get back in the Derby

futures and they end up losing. So I would say if it all if look

for a horse who's getting good right about now like fierceness

for example. I kind of wonder like if in all

of our haste to try to be clever with Derby horses if we're kind

of glossing over the fact this was dominated computers cup

juvenile when one of the biggest figures if I have to talk

quickly one of the biggest figures in the race in years.

He's trained by high profile people who know how to get a

horse ready and he might just just be so much better than

everyone else. You know, like we we him in 1/2

a months over this and then he watched him win and pay like 8

bucks and we're like, well that somewhat easier than it should

have been. And I am also I like Sierra

Leone a lot. And.

Next time Bournach runs runs in, the winner runs.

I am taking everything I got in my account that day and betting

against him. He was it was such a bias aided

win in the Remsen. I think he's getting a lot of

hype because he's made his brother and people are and I saw

so many takes on Twitter. In fact Dan and I watched that

race together in the Laurel Winterson and we saw so many

takes on Twitter like oh man, you know he's he's got so much

guts he got so much heart and and I'm like he rode the bias.

He's a fade next time, but I do like Sierra Leone because he ran

a big race against the bias. Yeah, I think Sierra Leone is

absolutely. If, if we're betting on the next

couple of months, I would bet on Sierra Leone.

I agree with that almost for sure.

All right, well, let's get into it.

It is the road to the Preakness here on the horse racing happy

hour. Happy to have our two guys back

in this year to follow along. Which Preakness edition is it

this year? We have like 148.

Contrary to popular belief, I haven't been to all of them,

John would know. I believe we're talking about I

I did lose track. I think this is 149.

Let me double. Check.

All right, so we'll do Derby 150 and then two weeks later we'll

do Preakness 149, one of my favorite three-week stretches of

the year for sure. And so, looking forward to all

the travel and all those things, Let's go ahead.

We'll start with Race 6 on the card out there at Laurel on

Saturday. It is a maiden 30 going 6

furlongs on the dirt course there.

This is for Philly's excuse me, for for Maiden's 3-4 and five

years old. Not just for Philly's excuse me,

but usually on the guy side. Here.

Is Maiden 30 the highest level of maiden claimer on the the MJC

or is there one above this? There's Maiden 40 fives, but in

a Maiden 45 race, if you're a Maryland Red you don't have to

be in for the claiming tag. Generally those races are as

strong as straight maidens. So I would say as far as pure

Maiden claimers go, there's a much, much bigger jump from 30

to 45 and there is 45 to straight maidens.

Got it. All right.

Well, we'll start with that race.

Like I said, six furlongs on the dirt here.

Lots of different ways to go. We do have a favorite in this

race under Javian Toledo for for trader, Horacio de Paz raced

once in open company at Aqueduct in a maiden special coming back

second time down. That is the 9 Common Prosperity

Dan, who we using to beat Common Prosperity?

Going to use super bourbon and if you're going to beat Common

Prosperity or any horse on the Maryland circuit, why not with a

Brittany Russell trained horse especially a third time starter

on dirt. She's 6 for her last eight with

a big ROI with those kind of horses and we talked about the

drop, the step up in class from the 30 of the waiver 45.

The source is going the other way, dropping out of the 45 into

the 30 with some tactical speed sort of down on the inside.

Last time out, and I'm not sure that's where Super Bourbon

really wanted to be. It was a quality race.

The runner up came back to win with a big figure, something

like an 84 by 82 by or winning by about 7 lengths.

And John, I know you have a longer shot that you like in

this one. Who you going to be using on top

here in Race 6? Yes, I do like Super Bourbon as

well for the reasons Dan mentioned.

However, my top pick is going to be on the inside #1 box of

Rockets 20 to one on the morning line for Bobby Plummer and

Carlos Lopez. This one just the start of his

debut and he got really well. Bet on his debut he ended up

going off at about 7:00 to 1:00. Looked like it was going to be a

total disaster. He broke kind of slow, dropped

over the inside. He was way behind early, but he

made-up a lot of really good ground.

Kind of got the picture laid and that sometimes happens with

young horses. They won't quite know what

they're doing at Frozen late and then late in the Grace on debut

we're kind of like, Oh yeah, this is what it's all about.

And he closed. Well, he got fourth, not a a

particularly close 4th, but it was still a pretty solid effort.

Only lost third by about two lengths.

We ran a decent figure on the Brizmet scale.

He ran a 67, had some good workout since then.

Went three furlongs in Pimlico at Pimlico last Saturday in 37

seconds flat. Don't know if he's most likely

winner, but in a race like this crazy things can happen.

Horses cannon proof suddenly. And I think he's the clear cut,

long shot play of I think the whole day, not just this verse.

What do you think of the Jamie Nest runner here?

The five Guapo Nest Dan coming in long layoff but going back

route to Sprint here. I know that's an angle that you

do like. Is this too much of A layoff

here? Do you think this is just a race

to get a race? I don't think there's a race to

get a race when you're at this $30,000 level.

You look at Jamie Ness's stats and almost all of them are good

just lately. I'm not a fan of his sources

coming off long layoffs, especially those of the six

month variety, which is what we're getting from Guapo Ness

here. Plus his go To rider Jamie

Rodriguez was listed on the overnight on both Guapo Ness and

Brush Back and it appears Jamie decided to go with the Nest

train first time starter. Brush back Guapo Nest is getting

Lasix for the first time and he is cutting back in distance with

some speed, but considering the connections just Jamie alone

takes money. I might try to fade the source a

little bit. There you go.

All right, let's move on to the 7th race.

This is our Black Eyed Susan prep for the weekend, the gym

talking for two year old Phillies.

Goal 7 Furlongs on the dirt down there at Laurel Park $100,000 in

the Kitty here and John, remind everyone do you have to be a

Maryland bred to be involved in these races this weekend?

No, no you're not. All these races will be covering

our open stakes. That being said, there are

plenty of Maryland bred in these races, including, in this race,

the Philly who won the Maryland Juvenile Philly Stakes in their

last start, kissed by an Angel number six.

There you go. The six kiss by an Angel is your

winner of that Maryland juvenile Phillies back at the beginning

of December. Dan.

A smaller field of seven here, but an interesting one, I think.

A lot of different directions that you could go.

Certainly plenty of speed with a horse like the two Carmelina and

a horse that's going to come from off the pace is the

undefeated 4 Cap Classic for the aforementioned Brittany Russell.

Personally I'm not sure there's a lot of pace in this race and I

think that helps a horse like Carmelina, who's been pretty

well travelled already as a 2 year old.

She's raced at Park, Saratoga, Colonial, Laurel and Penn

National. I talked to Butch Read earlier

today, he says. The key with Carmelina is

getting her relaxed in the paddock and in the warm up.

It's something I'm going to be taking a look at because she

often gets very, very antsy. He was pleased with how she

behaved at the National last time out and she just dominated

that field in the Shamrock rose against PA breads.

I think she's the speech is going to have to navigate 7/8

for the first time, but maybe she gets a breather down the

back stretch. It's interesting, Carmelina from

that into mischief line, Cap Classique, a daughter of Vino

Rosso. Obviously the curling line

there, John, both of those scream two turns eventually when

we get to the spring. Do you think those are the two

to beat? I would say so.

I mean on paper Carmelina is much faster than I think KISS by

an Angel early on I think Kiss by an Angel might want to go a

little further. I mean, I mean issue one at 7

foot long flat time out. This is pretty big I think I

think. All right, John.

We're in that last trace all. Right.

Good little tech issue with John.

John, do me a favor. Go ahead and reconnect, man.

We'll get you. We'll get you back in here, Dan.

He mentioned the Maryland bed. Kissed.

I was like kissed by an Angel. How much do you give a?

How much of a shot do you give Kissed by an Angel?

I thought Kiss by an Angel handled a very weak field in

that Maryland bred race last time out and also had just the

easiest trips. Take a look at those fractions,

Louis 24 and 148 in change for a Sprint race and this source was

able to relax up front. That's not happening happening

on Saturday with Carmelina. With her speed breaking to the

inside, Kiss by an Angel is much improved.

Just to consider she was claimed for $12,500 for a career debut.

But this is a pretty tall ask I think because not only does she

have to be Carmelina, she has to be cap class sneak.

Just been a very professional 2 year old.

You see a lot of these two year olds, they're like Carmelina

aren't they speed crazy? They love to go to the front and

they're just more brilliant than their competition cap class

sneak rates and finishes in the manner of an older horse and I

think this extra distance right up her alley.

There you go. All right, well, we will get now

into the Preakness prep. It is the heft.

It's $100,000 race here, 7 furlongs on the dirt.

As I mentioned, you do get the shorter races now and that will

lead into the two turn Tessio as we get into the spring.

Dan, I mean look sweet Saudi J's in here for the Ganter barn, but

of course standing out there winner on 1st asking by 7800

lengths was great opportunity to the four, but that was in the

slop. We're going to have cold but dry

conditions on Saturday. Is that your favorite for

Saturday or we we wondering if that was a wet number?

I think she's going to be, I think he's going to be the horse

to beat. But you're absolutely right.

It was not only wet conditions, it was not a one turn mile.

I'm talking to Brittany earlier today.

This is a great big horse and Brittany was looking forward to

running the source a distance of ground first time out.

So he's cutting this, she's cutting this one back to a sharp

7/8 of a mile and just looking off the cold dope.

While great opportunities, career debut was super

impressive with a solid speed figure.

Katahalla Moon has run faster I believe in his last three

starts, including his most recent race where he was

involved in a vicious speed duel, put the favorite away and

then just was run down late. You go back to Katahalla Moon's

big performance, three starts back.

That was a rate and finish job in the Maryland million.

I think Katahalla Moon is going to revert to those tactics, but

I also think great opportunity is going to get the jump on that

horse. Turning for home, it's going to

be about price for me, great opportunities, very short on the

morning line. I think it's going to even out a

little bit more. I give great opportunity a

slight nod. And in this sequence is is great

opportunity the single opportunity or do you think that

you have to play both in this race?

Oh boy. It kind of depends on how else

where else I want to go. I think in a situation like

this, you always want to play. You either single the favorite

or you're just trying to find bombs.

But I'm not even sure who's going to be the favorite in this

race. I prefer an opportunity.

I'm not sure if I would single her or not just yet, but I think

she would get more weight if I was waiting my wagers from an

ABC standpoint over Cato Holland Moon.

There you go. Great opportunity of course.

The son of Kinect warfront on mom's side.

You do have in Catahoula moon a son of golden lad.

How about that? Maryland bred their Malibu moon

on the mom's side. They close the race, close the

car. Dan with a really competitive

12-5 claimer. 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt course here I steal the

nine. Should be an interesting one to

close the card. Like I mentioned, Gabriel 7 in

here prohibited 2 to one favorite.

I think if that the horse runs even slightly better than last

time Dan, I want to get the gelding.

He probably wins the race. He sees the horse to beat and it

looked like he was going to win the race last time out.

Now. Keep an ear out for some

equipment changes there. I'm not sure that horse wore

blinkers last time out and I think he's going to wear him for

the first time on Saturday, so watch the replay and drop me a

note on Twitter if I'm wrong, but I think Gabriel, Seven race

without Blinkers, may get him on Saturday.

He looked boldly at the top of the stretch and when he was.

Asked with a right-handed stick. He popped to his left lead

drifted in and I think that cost him a lot of momentum.

He eventually gathered himself, got past the pacesetter and then

a horse just rolled up the rail and nicked him on the line.

It was a brutal beat for Gabriel Seven, who is the horse to beat,

but I'm not sure he's the kind of horse I want to single in

here. There are some others that are

interesting. Uncle Chinito was the speed of

that race. That was the horse that Gabriel

7 went by and Uncle Chinito went very fast on the lead in that

spot. I'm not sure Uncle Chinito is

getting the lead in here because I think the two burning up the

dough is going to show some speed, so maybe a rate and

finish job will work for him. Mini Speightster was the

disappointment last time and maybe if you're looking for

price in this race you lean towards this Jamie Ness Jamie

Rodriguez production because they were very aggressive with

Mini Speightster Last time outgoing A6 Furlongs battled up

with Uncle Kenito simply wasn't fast enough, was outpaced and

finished legally. This time he rates and finishes.

But this race is interesting. You can go a lot of different

ways, so this be the spread if you I want to find a single in

some of the shorter fields. Yeah.

Any chance that ABC YA shows up for a second run here under

under Rosato Sometimes I I love to play a second timer that, you

know sometimes they just figure it out.

Terrible conditions at Delaware last out.

Is that the kind of horse coming off the claim here?

Has been working it at Laurel? That might actually have

something to say here. I can't knock any long shot in

this race ABC. They saw enough to claim him out

of his debut, which is pretty much something in its own right,

and they gave this horse a break afterwards.

And I have a feeling we're going to see a more mature individual

going back to that Delaware race.

He just got wired in a slow paced race.

He really just didn't have anything to run at this barn.

Scored with a horse off about a four month layoff here earlier

in the month. So they can do it and I won't be

surprised if this pace heats up and gets a much better

situation. So you might want to look for a

horse like that, or at least use one like that in a race like

this. There you go.

Well, he's Dan Illman at DRF under score.

Dan Illman on Twitter. Dan, what are you cooking up for

this weekend? You you guys looking at

Gulfstream? What are you guys doing?

Well, we're taking a look at Gulfstream.

We're taking a look at Oak Lawn. We're taking a look at Aqueduct.

We're taking a look at Santa Anita, weather permitting,

because they're actually expecting some rain at the Great

Race Place on Saturday morning. And I'll be down at Laurel

covering these two stakes races for DRF.

So you can check me out again on Twitter DRF under SCORE

danulmandrf.com, Daily Racing Form, YouTube channel for video

previews. Dan's preview of The American

Oaks was free money the other day, by the way.

Just complete free money. So it was good stuff there.

There you go. Anisette is one of those horses

this year. When I was talking with Steve

earlier, the three-year old class just it reeks of what

could have been just over and over and over again, especially

on the guy's side. But Anisette's one of those

horses. Just a couple more.

Frankly, if her her year is 2 lengths different, she's got

three more wins. No, she has that powerful kick,

doesn't she? That's very exciting in these

races. But I think in the American Oaks

she showed that she doesn't have to be pace compromised.

They didn't go fast in front of her.

She stayed close and once she tipped out, there was no way she

was losing. We saw some really nice racing

at San Anita on opening day. I mean Baffert running 1-2 in

the Malibu. I think Speedboat Beach is kind

of a an interesting horse. Does Bob try to keep him

sprinting? Does he look for a race like the

Met Mile? Does he dare stretch him out in

distance? Something he hasn't done despite

this horse running some very fast races on dirt?

He's sound of a fascinating contender.

Yeah, Speedboat beach for sure and a rare turf to dirt for Bob

Baffert there as well from his races last year.

So there you go again. Dan Elman, John Piasik.

Sorry that we missed him ironically in the best way.

John was in his parents basement so the Internet just didn't

work. So there you go.

It is what it is. All right Zach, why don't you go

ahead and play that music. We will get out of here.

We will keep these episodes going, like I said, once a month

here on the road to the Preakness.

Get you ready for that that third Saturday in May down there

at Old Hilltop in Baltimore. So I'm Louie Robot at Radio

Louie on Twitter. You can find our show at Horse

Happy Hour if you are so inclined.

Zach, play us out and we will see you next time.