Scott Shapiro | Jim Dandy & Bing Crosby Preview

Life is good. Yes Sir, life is good.

Horse racing happy hour. How about that little Thursday

action? Louis Rabeau.

We dumped Gandolfo today. I I got to say, I mean, I just

if you text me at like 6:45 and you're like, look, bro, I'm

sick. It feels a little like the mean

girl scene where Karen, I'm sick.

And it just if if you were if you had Mean Girls reference in

the first minute of this show on your bingo card, go ahead.

You get the whole bingo card. You get 4, you know, 5 bingos

across, five up and down. You get the two diagonals.

You're welcome, producer Zach. How are you, friend?

I'm feeling fetch stop it. Fetch is not going to be a

thing. I'm.

Trying to make fetch happen. Oh man, I people are always done

that they when they find out that I love that movie.

But it's it's great. It's a great movie.

It's it is what it is. I would guess, by the way, that

movie and office space, the top two movies I've watched with my

spouse. How about that?

You got a you got a movie like a go to like date night like and I

look, I don't want to I don't want to out anybody's spouse.

But the night when you know what's going to go well for you.

What's that movie? What is that movie?

Like the go to, you know, both of you were going to laugh, both

of y'all are going to enjoy it. Like that kind of thing.

What is that movie for us? It's Office Space, believe it or

not. I don't know why, but there's so

many damn good lines in that movie.

I mean, it's just a free space of great lines.

And the Roots, they're very good in Office Space.

That movie, I don't know, it would be.

It'd be some terrible ROM com I'm sure.

Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah.

I don't I don't even know that that we have a that movie.

It's more like if there is a terrible ROM com that we're

putting on then we you. Don't spot to go down.

We have made the agreement, right?

Yep. Yep, Yep.

Every, every good couple's been there.

That's right. It's all good.

Well, I got to go to New Jersey last week.

And it you did. Dude, it was high level

delightful. I'm not gonna lie to you.

I had a great time. Monmouth is awesome.

Shout out to Tom Lucci, the folks out there.

They were really great to me. We we got set up in their their

library at Monmouth Park. This is amazing.

Which look, I absolutely am worthy of that library.

However, I was just not expecting it.

And so it is. It's good to know.

And Tom on the way out the door said, you come next year, you

get the same spot. So Zach will have to fly to New

Jersey. You get to hang out in the

library next year. I I.

Feel like a librarian. I'm ready to go.

Be your personal librarian. I will be the I'll.

Get my library card before then just.

How about that? Whatever I need to do, if I

could be a librarian at a horse track and get paid for it, that

would be awesome. They got a fun they, they got a

cool crew there. I know you know this 'cause

you've been many times with me. But of course it's Joan in the

press box at at Piblico that makes things go with all the

scratches and everything. We all, we all love Joan

Monmouth has a Joanie, how about that?

And she guards the door, dude. Yeah.

Money. Yeah, it was fantastic.

So your boy got to meet a new Joan, which is fantastic.

And I hit the middle pick 5 for two grand on a $56 ticket.

And I played the late pick four for a buck and we hit that for

1200 bucks. Dude, I New Jersey, let's go.

I was so talking to Illman. I'm like, easy game.

He goes, yeah, here you go. Moved to the Jersey Shore.

Bet here twice a week, make some money, be good.

Like, there you go. That's how you do that.

But no beautiful part of the state for sure.

Zach, I think I sent you the photo of the grandma's pizza

that we got that we me, I, I had, I had extra cash.

How about that? So I just they're like, do you

want a slice? I'm like, Nope, make me the pie.

So I had a big old grandma. Oh gosh, delicious, absolutely

delicious. And you know, it's a good part

of the country for pizza. When I didn't even look it up.

I just drove around till I saw a place that I knew was a hole in

the wall and I just went to that and it was awesome.

So there you go. I don't even remember the name

of the place. I'm sure I could find it.

It was next to a cigar store that wasn't open at the time, so

I'm sure I can find it if I need to.

To be fair, New Jersey's like half pizza joints, half cigar

shops. That's pretty much what they do

in that part of New Jersey. I feel like you're being very

reductive there. It's Italian restaurants.

They're not pizza joints, they're Italian restaurants.

But one of the races. You get a sandwich with cheese

on it you can. There's a meatball available.

People, there's a meatball. Got to meet Matt Dinerman in

person, watching a couple of races.

Our guy Sean Collins, we hung out with him, did some stuff on

bloodhorse.com, which is a lot of fun.

So no, just a nice, you know, I'm Matt Matthew DeSantis, who's

been on this show from Naira Bets, all those guys.

And so no, just a nice a nice weekend.

And you know, when Gandolfo's not around that illman guy's a

little nicer. Maybe it's because he doesn't

feel like he has to compete for your love.

I I give love to many people. It is just my nature, but it is

what it is. But I had a fantastic time, I

really did. I stayed a little roadside in in

Eatontown, just just past the the track.

Do you know what I did pass that I thought was pretty fascinating

was Fort Monmouth, which they decommissioned, but is was

purchased by Netflix and they're making it into a gigantic

futuristic studio and that work is just started.

Yeah, it's about an hour 10 drive from Manhattan kind of

thing. Huge property, really cool

passing the old barracks and stuff and that kind of thing.

And and then I looked it up and I'm like, oh, Netflix is taking

this over. So all the way back I noticed

where the new construction was starting and that kind of stuff.

But just a really a spectacular trip, really great time.

And two of the races that we got to take in, one of them made me

look really smart, and the other one made me look really, really

smart. And so we'll start with the one

that made me look smart, which was for Dornak, who's making a

case to be 3 year old of the year.

He wins the Haskell holds off mind frame, who I'm sure

frustrated the heck out of his betters again this weekend after

a similar trip to what he had in the Belmont.

But Dornuk, I think, deserves a lot of credit here for not

letting anyone pass him. He's just a gamer.

He's just that kind of horse. He's get.

He's a get out front, stay out front type.

And here's that stretch run. Door knock set to log.

Mine frame moving up ominously. Here's mine frame and Irad Ortiz

Junior going strong. Door knock set to long but he's

lost the lead. Attempts to re rally Timberlake

in an all out drive between them.

It's mine frame confidently handled, switches leads and gets

the queue to go. Door knock is trying hard but

he's left behind it. Second fighting back from the

inside. Mine frame, door knock coming

back. They're at it again.

The two fell 1st and 2nd place finishers 1-2 and Door Knock

Stubborn Door Knock wins. The Haskell.

Presented by Dyra Betts Heat. Well, shout out, by the way, to

NBC. They did something that I've

complained about before and they did it right, which was they let

the local guy call the race on their broadcast.

Great to hear Matt's voice there and all the enthusiasm.

That crowd, by the way, 30,000 plus packed in loud, engaged

fun. It was a young crowd really

stood out how young the crowd was.

Zach and and look, Dornuk man, that's a that's a winning

formula, man. If you can get on the lead, slow

down the pace, get to 112 over over over that amount of

distance and then and then just kind of do that work in the

stretch mind frame, though, just just all over the track man, by

that second turn. Really fascinating.

By the way, Timberlake, I thought looked a little better

now that I'm re watching this with you.

It looked a little better than I remember and I'll be interested

to see what his next stop is on the training, you know, on the

on the trail, because he, you know, hadn't run since that

Gosh, what's he in Louisiana Derby, I think, and you know,

just had it been off for a long time.

I thought he looked right there like he was right there with

that group. Dornak obviously just a better

horse at this point and so not really impressive.

I have to share this too. So I'm down by the winner's

circle after the Haskell and, and the, the whole door knock

ownership group is coming out and every, it's it's fantastic.

Every ownership group has this one guy and he's in it and he's

coming out and he goes, what are they going to write there?

And by the way, it's very New York, very New Jersey, OK.

And he comes out and goes, what are they going to write this

time about the horse? Huh?

What's the excuse for my frame here?

And I'm like, bro, you just want $1,000,000 race, like just have

fun with it. And literally I looked at one of

those bodies. I'm like there's always one of

these guys. Isn't he goes, dude, just write

something nice about it. I do, I will later.

Right now he's in the lead for three-year old of the year.

What can we say? He is on the male side for sure.

And so I mean, it is look, he he runs like that in the Belmont

wins gets the same, you know, kind of set up again, wins

again. Now, can you do that to

traverse? I don't know.

Can you do that in the Pennsylvania Derby?

I don't know. But he got it done in the

Belmont got it done in the Haskell.

And at least we know that a that early part in Florida of the

year for him was not a fluke. The Belmont wasn't either,

right. He backed this up.

So what 3 great at stakes this year.

And so it been up against some extraordinarily good horses.

He did run in the Kentucky Derby and we did the thing, Zach, with

Dornock that I think we need to be mindful of as as

handicappers, as people who observe the sport, which is he

runs to the Derby, he runs to the Belmont, and I think people

do the thing. Oh, did oh, he's tired.

No, no, no, no, no. He had five weeks off between

those two races. He's fine.

They're spacing his races almost perfectly frankly, 5 weeks to

the Belmont, 5 weeks to the Haskell, five weeks to the

Traverse. Couldn't ask for a better set up

for a horse that ready and in shape.

And so kudos to the Gargon barn and all the folks there and even

even what are they gonna say now guy you're OK buddy, it's

$1,000,000 race. You got a $600,000 check.

You're gonna live you're good. Your horse is fine the but it it

was a nice reminder that we do have a a horse at the top of

this three-year old class and his name is Dornoch.

The race that made us sound really smart though was our

single in the late pick four sequence and his name was Get

Smoke and he wins the United Nations.

One of my very favorite races every year.

I love this race at Monmouth Park.

Here he is on the lead, trying to keep the lead ahead of Tawny

Port and running Beat. Up to the back, get smoking 3

furlongs to go A3 length lead. Tawny Port still chasing, eating

up ground, getting closer running.

B has come under a hard ride. Far Bridge being asked to

produce a run, needs to get going.

Web Slinger has passed him. Get smoking.

Trying to make every pole a winning one here, but the lead

is decreasing. It's two likes.

Let's see what he's got for the final furlog.

Tawny Port still charging right behind him.

Get smoking, trying to seal the deal.

Grant Sonata coming up the inside with a surge.

It's get spoken. He's almost there.

Toddy ported Grandsonata inside Grand.

I got to say I was standing just past the finish line.

I thought we were done. I thought grandsonata got up the

inside got there. The one horse and the kid

standing next to me do his credit guy named Jordan.

Jordan, if you happen to be watching shout out Jordan goes,

Nah, man, your three got there because he sits, he stands to

the gets next to me on the rail. We've never met before.

He goes, who are you on here? And I said, actually we're on

the three and he looks up. He goes 9:00 to 1:00.

Oh, yeah, yeah, We're on the three here going for it.

Good smoking. This is our horse.

He's gonna get the lead. We're gonna see what happens.

And he's coming down the stretch and I start yelling, right?

Because I look, yeah, of course, essentially have $100 on this

horse, which, by the way, looking back, I should have just

bet the horse to win. But anyways, the this that

finish man is a reminder of how deep the general jockey, the

general jockey group in North America is.

That's Fernando de la Cruz man. That's a guy who's regularly in

Indianapolis rating that thing perfectly getting get smoke into

the line in a mile and three ace race over three turns at

Monmouth Park where he does not ride.

That's a really nice job by Fernando de la Cruz to time that

frankly about as well as you're going to be able to time that

just a fun race. Huge exact to pay out of that

one. You got 9 to one over like 25 to

one to end that one. But look, I don't know who's in

charge of these things in the greatest stakes committee or

whatever, but the idea that two of the races on that card, the

Mali pitchers a Grade 3, bleep off idiomatic, wins that one and

joins a long line of great Phillies and mares to win that

race. The second one is the United

Nations. It's a Grade 2.

That's a Grade 1 turf race. Stop it.

And the Mali pitchers at least a Grade 2.

So let's be better with the Greatest Stakes committee and

upgrade a couple of the races there on the card.

Scott Shapiro's due to join us here today.

I do not have access to the backstage.

And there he is. How about that?

And I gotta say, hey, Scott, I'm so glad you're wearing a hat

because I was very concerned that you were going to look like

this. And no one needs to look like

me. Scott, How are you, buddy?

What's up, Louie? Great to join you.

I do look like you. I'm just decided.

You're a smarter man than me. How about that?

You know what it is? Is, is I got one of these.

And so I, I stopped worrying about the, the follicle action

on my end. We were just talking about the

Haskell of the United Nations. How did you take in Haskell Day

last week? Yeah, no, it was a fun day.

I was didn't doesn't sound like I had as much success as you.

Probably one of my least successful recently, but a great

call by you in the United Nations.

I did not like Tappa Trice at all, but he was, you know, a new

horse in there and then you know, I the the Haskell was a

really a great betting race obviously.

But I thought, you know, Dornoch definitely show that the the

Belmont was no fluke. If if anybody thought it was.

And you know, I think it'll be an interesting Travers.

It'll be interesting to see how things occur on Saturday.

But the three-year old crop up for grabs.

But like you, I think I heard you say when I came on it, it's

definitely Dornick's race to lose at this point.

Yeah, I think that's right. And I also for three-year old of

the year, Scott, you know, and and we're starting to hear the O

Thorpeeta Anna needs to run in the, you know, in the in the

traverse and this kind of stuff. So we're starting to hear a

little bit. I don't want to use the word

degrading, but you know, people putting down this three-year old

class is Dornick right now the class of it.

I think so. You know, you got to you got to

give Mystic Dan credit still. I know we had the great ride and

trip in the Derby and then, you know, came back and ran fine in

the Preakness and you know, the Derby winner to me and I, I

assume many will always get a little bump over over the

others. You know, you're beating the the

best of the best that day, but, you know, I don't think he's

cemented himself going into the race, you know, as more than,

you know, a middle tier horse. So I think he's got to do more.

And Sierra Leone just doesn't win races, right.

And so, you know, until that changes, I think that it's

Dornix. But at, you know, there's a,

there's a couple big races to come and I think it's, you know,

pretty much up for grabs. Yeah, the just the, the the

Breeders Cup Classic, sort of, you know, Dornix got a spot if

he's healthy, right in November in the starting gate there by

winning the Haskell. No one stands out to me yet,

Scott, this year as far as two turn horses.

Obviously we'll have the San Diego Handicap this weekend.

Get a sense of some of those horses trying to qualify for the

Pacific Classic where the Breeders Cup will be held at Del

Mar. Anybody stand out to you?

Does Dortek have as good a chance as anyone else I guess at

this point? Yeah, nobody stands out to me at

this point. You know, it's early in the, you

know, I mean, it's not early, but in terms of Breeders Cups at

this point, it's still kind of early these days to kind of get,

you know. I mean, you know, it's only a

couple, a race or two, but we don't even know who's going to

be in there. And not to say somebody's going

to appear on the scene, but yeah, I think it it it's

definitely wide open in my eyes. Nobody is.

I just saw Reincarnate who was going to be appointed for the

Pacific Classic with an underwhelming effort in the in

his prep in the whatever that race that long.

The Cougar 2:00 today yeah, the. Cougar the 2nd, so I don't know

if we'll even go. But yeah, lots, lots to to sort

out still as always is the case in mid-july or late July,

wherever we are. Yeah, we'll see some of those

horses, you know, express train, maybe Doctor Venkman is ready

for two turns. Arabian Night, New Grange are

both in that San Diego Handicap this weekend.

So maybe maybe one of them will really show up and give us more

of an idea of who's gonna be challenging, maybe Adornik or

anyone else in that two turn Breeders' Cup Classic.

But let's go ahead. Let's head to Saratoga and talk

about that Jim Dandy this weekend.

Kind of a short field here, six horses.

But I think, you know, if you, if you told me, hey, if you

could get four horses after the Haskell to show up for this

race, I think we got all for them.

You know, Batten Down is an interesting horse to be coming

out out of that Ohio Derby, maybe one of these later later

developing sort of three-year olds.

We get Sierra Leone, who I think many people still think of as

the most talented 3 year old in this class.

Fierceness. Obviously you throw your hands

up in the air because when he's great, he's great, but he's not

boy is he not? But let's go through this field

kind of 1 by 1 Scott, starting with Sierra Leone on the inside

there. The the interesting thing about

him is he's the only dead closer in this field.

Everyone else is either a a lead type or, you know, right off the

lead kind of type. The Violet at 8th is actually

even better for him than the 10 furlongs, which is interesting.

Gets back to a mile and an eighth here.

Do you like his chances on Saturday?

I think he's, you know, almost a mortal cinch if there is one

that hit the board and maybe even run second.

I don't trust him anymore to win horse races.

You know, he he seems to have an excuse each and every time.

And you know that the blinkers Chad has, you know, messed with

them. I don't know enough about

different such types of blinkers to know when he talks about it.

But clearly he's still hoping that he can figure things out

'cause his stride when he kind of lugs in is inefficient to an

extent. And it's cost them horse races.

Maybe, you know, anyone could even argue the Kentucky Derby to

an extent, although Forever Young was probably best in

there. But I just can't trust when you

look at the the price, is he the likeliest winner?

I I guess I'd have to say so. But from a gambling perspective,

he is just really tough to trust because he's just found ways to

lose, not win, even if he's one of the best, if not the best in

the crop. You mentioned him as a second or

third place type of horse. How does Scott Shapiro play a

race like this? Do you play it you know, within,

with, with an exact or trifecta kind of player?

Is it going to be part of a larger sequence for you?

Yeah. You know, if, if I think look at

Sierra Leone as a horse that I don't think is a win type and I

would key underneath. You know, I could see a

situation if I like a horse, a price or two keying Sierra

Leone. But most times in that

situation, you know, as a guy that definitely puts a

significant portion of my budget in the horizontals, I would just

try to beat Sierra Leone, you know, in that situation.

Now, if I see a horse like Sierra Leone talk about the same

and he's 4:00 to 1:00, not even money, then I'm going to look at

the race more to attack from a, you know, a vertical perspective

and maybe key a horse for second or second and third.

That's a price to try to take advantage of it that way.

We watched Seize the Gray Run a million races in about a seven

week span and he finally gets a little bit of time off here.

Scott, before we talk about his chances in this race itself and

what he'll have to do to be one of those front runners that

actually just stays on and wins this thing.

If he wins this race, does he actually move to the top of the

three-year old standings in your mind, 'cause he would for me?

Is that because of his resume or just because you think he's the

best horse? Because of his resume, because

he will have won the grade 2 Pat de Mile Hill, have run a won a

classic race 2 weeks later frankly, and then come back and

win in the grade two against both Sierra Leone and

fierceness. That would put him at the top

for me. Understandable for sure.

My problem is is that his other races have been fairly

uncompetitive, but you know, winning this rate, you know, I,

I understand where you're coming from because we are in a

situation like we talked about where it is, you know, pretty

wide open and the only reason we're saying it's Dornick right

now is because he won last weekend, not because of anything

before that right. So my problem with him as a

horse for, you know, I, I don't disagree.

I I don't strongly have a have a strong take against for or

against. He's the Gray, you know, as

horse of the year. Should he win, I.

I just think he's I just think he's still a cut below.

I really do. I think he ran.

You know, the Pat de mile was good.

I mean, and The thing is, I remember the coach who talking

about how he had to cut this horse back.

He couldn't get the distance all right, and then mode.

I mean, I think he's made the right move and you know, he's

going to take a shot in the preakness.

But I it was the right move in that field and he and he ran

great, but he took advantage of a track, you know, a situation.

It was a, it was a, you know, not a great group.

Mystic Dan coming back after a hard race 2 weeks later.

And it was, he was loose on the lead in the mud.

And then he comes back and, you know, and he has to work hard in

the Belmont against the best of the best.

And I think we see a little more of him at a mile and an eighth

mile and 1/4. So I just don't see a scenario

where he gets loose here. And I think that's his way of

winning when he goes as far as a mile and an eighth.

I totally agree with you about the pace scenario for him here.

I think he's going to have to do a ton of work early.

We'll see. Maybe not a repeat of the

Belmont, but something similar where it's just it's too much

work for him up front, too much, too much other legitimate speed

in this race. Right.

There are there are other horses in this field that feel just as

fast as him or faster on the on the track man.

But I I really think just Sierra Leone fierce's I do you think

they're just gonna get so much money that even a seize the Gray

in a six horse field might be an 8 or 9 to one kind of horse

here. I could see a lot of people

having the say, you know, I don't know if my opinion or what

you know or our opinion or whatever, you know, is going to

be unique one of this race. So he certainly could get some

float. There's one part, I don't know

how much it comes into a play on a Saturday at Saratoga, but the

my racehorse factor. Could.

Play the wind pool little, but usually those the you know, and

then, then the naira has the limitations for the Caws with

the wind pool. So maybe that would impact it a

little, but I, I could see where you're coming from maybe getting

a little bit overlooked. Batten down is in here.

He's the three horse junior Alvarado Bill Mott here.

When's the Ohio Derby last out? Scott, if you tell me that you

won a bunch of money on Ohio Derby day, I'm going to be very

impressed because I could not figure out those state bred

races to save my life. The lady Jacqueline a little bit

more to form there. What do you make of this

Horseman breaks his maiden. They figure out hey, get this

horse to the front two turns at Churchill goes up the Thistle

down. When's the Ohio Derby against,

you know, frankly, a grade three kind of field comes up here,

tries to win the Grade 2 Jim Dandy against considerably

better horses. Do you give him much of a shot

here? Well, First off, I'm you brought

up a salty subject because I faded both of those coupled

entries and one of them I just couldn't find the right horse I

like. That first race that.

Was, yeah, I don't remember exactly the situation, but

anyhow, you know, I've been dead wrong.

I was dead wrong in the Ohio Derby about that.

You know, those mile and a quarter maiden specials at

Churchill usually are pretty weak races.

A lot of times it's a number of horses that trainers are just

hoping want more ground because they're not fast, right?

And they just kind of plod along and you get a horse like this

that has a little bit of ability.

I thought that race, you know, a lot of times you get phony

numbers. Or was that horse that that

Baskin horse for Wilkes that kind of did this?

Just asking who who fit this, the profile I mentioned?

Well, you know, Batten down really had things his way in the

Ohio Derby, but but he took advantage of it, right?

So it's hard to knock him. The field was weak.

He hasn't taken on this level of competition.

It seems like he wants to be involved early, which was we

discussed. There's a there's a lot of other

speed in here, but he has upside.

He hasn't really proven he can't do anything yet and maybe he can

sit just off and take advantage and get the jump, maybe on a

horse like Sierra Leone. Do you give them a chance to and

at least hit the board here? I'm going to fade them because

I'm going to be stubborn and stick with my opinion.

Still, I don't because I don't really know what the Ohio Derby

told us, right? I mean, fair enough.

Look, you know, it just was a race where the favorite, the Cox

horse that ran forth in the Derby, the names.

Yeah, chasing freedom. Yep, Yep.

Chasing freedom. Catching.

Freedom excuse. Me, yeah.

Catching freedom didn't fire. Yeah, so I just don't think

there was much in there. So I'm going to fade him again,

but I wouldn't be very little. Would surprise me if he's able

to not get caught up in a battle.

I don't think he's good enough if that happens to to be around

late. I I could not agree more.

An interesting late developer, though Santa tap it there the

Juddmont folks and Bill Mott with Junior Alvarado Pony

Express ships in from the West Coast.

I I love these kind of entries, Scott.

I'll be honest, I love when when trainers take a shot with these

kinds of horses who show, you know, the first time going two

turns really like it. You know, it's something that

they maybe the light goes on, the trainer watches the light go

on for the horse. But under Bear Torrespoli to

this point, just pick up Joel Rosario, who knows the course up

there at Saratoga really, really well.

How much and I want to a little bit of a different question

here. How much of A motivation do you

think it is for some of these California owners to get east of

the Rockies for some of these races just cause of the purses?

Yeah, I mean, for the owners, you know, 3 chimneys, I'm sure

it doesn't hurt to have those purses.

You know, that's, that's obviously part of it.

And there's also just not opportunities back there.

They have the shared belief, right?

And if not, you want to run, you need to run in the Pacific

Classic. And that has been done recently

because of the lack of options. But it didn't really ever used

to be. This is an interesting move.

I don't know, you know, how much of A hustle maybe the horse gets

scratched. I doubt it.

But you don't see John Sadler send a horse like this, you

know, to Saratoga. I I should have probably looked

up the the his statistics if he. I can't really remember more

sending horses to Saratoga question.

Yeah, I don't either. Yeah, but he, this horse has

never taken money either. And it's a $500,000 gun runner,

so I'm leery on his quality. But the fact that they send him

here is very intriguing. Just that makes him intriguing

that that fact on paper, I don't love him.

Hey, he reminds me a bit of Batten down right?

Coming out of a maiden win like that against a lesser field.

Finds out that they like, you know, they find out with him

that he likes two turns like his dad did.

And maybe ship ship about east and see if he's got a shot here.

I'm with you though. I don't think I'll be using him

in longer tickets at all, but I I can't.

I can't. Get past it, Scott, I'll tell

ya. I kind of wish I saw a reason

why he ran so much better, like if the blinkers came off or if

there was time off. It just makes me wonder, you

know what happened. But clearly they thought that he

figured something out and the like I said, the fact they sent

him here is very interesting. I have a feeling I understand,

right? I can predict what you're going

to say about Gould's Gold, who ran second of that Ohio Derby to

Batten Down. Is this a horse that can improve

and hit the board here, Scott? Well, his numbers would say he's

moving in the right direction. I just have never really thought

all that much of this horse that he has that rip went up the rail

in Oakland Park and he's just kind of grinded along.

I think the races that he's hit the board, you know, hit the

board in that our stakes races are third tier, not second tier

races, You know, for the, you know, other than maybe you could

argue the Ohio Derby, but he was no match for batting down.

You know, the way Brian will ride the race, I would not be

surprised if he if he relishes the surface at all, if he's able

to, you know, pass a lot. You know, a good deal of these

horses, if they do go at it, that's probably a ceiling

though. And if if it's and it has been

pretty speed favoring at Saratoga.

So assuming they're all going to stop, you know, just because

they go a little fast, it might be a bad assumption.

Same ownership group that does own Mystic Dan, the good folks

on Lance Gazaway, one of the good guys, the Arkansas owners

there in the Kennedy Mcpeet group there.

Brian Hernandez Junior will get them out there on Saturday.

Fierceness is on the outside and Scott, I hate playing horses

when I for the reason, the sole reason of if they fire, I'll

feel like an idiot. But here we are with fierceness.

I feel like I'm going to end up using him in tickets because if

he fires I'm going to feel like an idiot.

What's that? Scott Shapiro.

Well, you know, this is like the horse that I've never used.

So it's kind of yeah. And I mean, you look like you

said, you know, you know, he's when he beats you, you feel like

an idiot. I wish I used him on the one

day. I wish I used him obviously as

Breeders' Cup dad because he was 16 to one or whatever that day.

You know, when I first saw the race and I saw that he drew

outside and I didn't really know who Pony Express necessarily was

at first, you know, like like that.

I thought, well, this might be furious.

This is kind of race. Maybe speed to his inside, but

he'll stay in the clear. The bet breaking a little slow

won't matter much. But now I look at it and he's

not going to have things in his way.

You wouldn't think. I just can't see.

I can't see a scenario where, you know, unless he just breaks

like a shot where he has it easy, you know, and I just don't

think he has a lot of heart. I hate to say it.

I think he's got a lot of ability.

When he has things his way, he can be dominant.

So I guess that means he's an automatic fade when he's going

to be that price. But I wouldn't be one bit

surprised if he runs a huge race, and if he does, I'll be

lining up to try to beat him in the traverse.

So. The every other type thing, this

would be the every other for him.

Does Scott Shapiro factor that into his handicapping?

I don't, I mean, you could definitely it's hard for me to

argue that that that's not the truth with him.

But I think you could also say that, well, the every other the

three races that he that the every others were the ones where

he either was loose in the lead or just sitting out and clear

right off a horse that he was better than.

So maybe, maybe he gets himself in a better position when he's,

you know, there's there's a case for when he's fresh or when

he's, you know, better, you know, going into a race better

that he's able to get himself in a better position.

But I think it's more a race shaped thing than anything.

Yeah, I, I, I he's actually not great off the bench.

Last time that he tried that in the Holy Bowl, he just, he was

stale, right, frankly. And so there's actually a

chance, I think that he's stale in this one.

I think what's going to happen in this race, Scott, is all

these horses are going to try to get the lead and Sierra Leone is

just actually going to win one of these damn things because

everybody just tries to get the lead and he's the really the

lone late speed in this thing. What says Scott Shapiro?

If he doesn't win this race, I think you just have to, I just

think you have to assume we've seen the best of them, right?

Yeah, I think that's fair, yeah. You know, it's one of those

situations where I would never bet him to win.

But as you know, a public handicapper, you make picks.

He's he's got to be my pick just because of the the race shape.

All right, Scott Shapiro with us here on the Horse Racing happy

Hour. Look, earlier in the card is the

Vanderbilt. The other grade one Sprint on

Saturday, $350,000, six furlongs on the dirt there at Saratoga.

I'm going to try to beat Nakatomi in this race.

Scott. Who are you going to use on top

do you think? Well, I think, I think Skelly

will go off favorite and Nakatomi will be second choice.

Is that how you see it or you see you think not?

Yeah, I think he'll be second favorite.

Maybe. Maybe Yoda gets a bunch of New

York money. I'm not sure.

Yeah, I don't trust Skelly or Nakatomi.

You know Skelly will be loose, but he doesn't he stopped

braking well and that's a bad sign.

I know he ran big considering that and the worst that beat

him. We'll talk about the Bing Cruz,

but close the game. Sugar is legit.

I don't trust him and I think Nakatomi's always been a little

overrated and run his best and fastest races against second

tier. I'm going to try Subregate,

who's an up and Comer. He hasn't switched leads in his

last couple of races, which leads me to believe or hope that

he has still some more upside as he figures things out more

mentally. His father Arrogate, obviously

figured things out a little later than others, but I'm going

to give him a shot. And you know, Baby Yoda makes a

ton of sense to Saratoga. He's one that I do worry about,

even with little extra time off here, putting back-to-back races

together. Yeah, he has one, two in a row.

The true north, obviously last time at Saratoga over that, that

Jude 8th Belmont Festival, which I'm still getting used to saying

at Saratoga. Luckily, we only have to do that

one more time. But yeah, no, it's an

interesting field actually, of these six, because you're right,

Skelly's gonna get his way early if he breaks.

Well, right. And but you're right as well

that, I mean, last time, for example, he should have won that

Aristides. There's no excuse for that one,

right? And then close the game Sugar,

who we'll talk about flew past him was I read on close the game

Sugar that day he was. Right he was.

Yeah, so I read gets them out here on subrigate.

I think that's a good enough reason in my mind to bet him 3

for three this year, plus the upgraded jockey.

I'm with you on that. I'll try subgrade here too.

Do you worry about going off Lasix at all with him?

Always and you know, I could sit here and and you know, the the

one thing is he did run well as a 2 year old, you know, without

it, but he did. You're right.

I hate that we have to, you know, I hate that we have to

even think about that. It's just an, you know, maybe at

times where you can use it against favorites and and catch

something good, but overall it's just an added piece of the

puzzle that's not needed. All right, well, let's head out

West then. Have you looked at the San Diego

Handicap? I didn't include it in the

message that I sent you. I didn't I didn't write.

I didn't write on it, which was surprising.

I did happen to write on the Bing Crosby.

So I didn't look at the San Diego yet.

And now that you got me a little excited to because I I hadn't

even looked at the field to be completely.

Yeah, just, I mean, we're getting press trade, we're

getting Doctor Venkman, Arabian Night, New Granges in here.

I mean, it's it's not a huge field, but I mean, if we're

talking West Coast and we're talking two turns, at least

we're getting those six in this field.

And so does anybody, I mean, just on initial look, does

anyone stand out? Let me pull it up here real

quick here. I'm just I'm fascinated.

I mean, Arabian Night taking this much time off coming back

in this spot. You know, he did win at Del Mar

last out the Pacific Classic, obviously under Flavio Pratt

gets Juan Hernandez here with Bob Baffert.

They only win 40% of their races at Del Mar together.

And so that kind of stands out. But it's it's an interesting

field, Scott, just because, you know, you know, when we were

when we were younger men, big capital is the big day in

Southern California. The Pacific Classic has blown

past that as far as the most important two turn dirt race in

in Southern California. And so, yeah, just trying to,

you know, weave through this, this field itself.

You know, express trade's just one of these horses that

randomly jumps up. He's really good at Del Mar, for

example, in his career ran terrible at the Pacific Classic

last year, hasn't had hasn't put together good races in a while.

But you get Doctor Venkman in here, he's never gone two turns.

It's just it's kind of a fascinating field, frankly.

Yeah, Doctor Venkman, the pedigree isn't isn't overly one

turning and he's running well here.

It's just odd that it was never in it doesn't you know, I mean,

he I guess maybe he just ran so well springing there was no

reason to try it. I mean, the only thing you can

hope for, I think is if if that Arabian Night doesn't make the

lead, maybe they bat or else it's going to be the, you know,

Doctor on the lead and Arabian Night just sitting right off

him. It looks to me just.

Waiting for. Him New Grange, probably a

little better at Santa Anita, maybe.

I don't know. Yeah, so Sanador did run a good

race in the Gold Cup last out under Flavian Pratt, gets Hector

Berrios here for Richard Mandel on the outside of that field.

Should be an interesting set up and see how that race goes on

Saturday. But the grade one Bing Crosby is

race 10-6 furlongs on the dirt out there at at Saratoga at Del

Mar, $400,000 of the Kitty here 3 and up.

I thought Scott turned into a really nice field.

This is a fun race. You get the people's champ in in

the Cal bred with the chosen Bron.

But hey, you get the new shooter Jacks Town one is in here for

Bob Baffert. On the outside you've got happy

Jack who's put together back-to-back really dynamite

sprints in the cone of gold and triple bend.

And then you get close to game. Sugar, who you mentioned has won

a bunch this year, really impressive.

Last out at Churchill Downs. Yeah, I think this is pretty

clearly the, you know, the graded stakes races on Saturday,

the one that came up the strongest, you know, both from a

wagering perspective and just overall quality.

And I think it's a race that, you know, I think Delmar's been

pretty speed favoring as well. But the main major players in

here, you know, you got Straight No Chaser, who I think is going

to make the lead, you know, almost for sure.

But you got anarchist who got caught up in a battle at

Churchill. I think he if he could sit, you

know, a little bit off the pace and not get caught up along the

inside, he's not without a chance.

He's run well in both of the starts at Delmar and he kind of

shook off the rust last out. And then you've got the ones

that you, you know, you mentioned the chosen Bran, who,

what more could you say? I mean, he just wins every race

he's in. He's a winner.

That's right. And then, you know, happy Jack,

who many of us might, at least I, I and a couple others thought

was rich strike back in May 2022 up the rail.

But he's kind of reinvented himself here as as a sprinter.

close the game, Sugar. I think every he has everything

going for him. I like that he draws outside of

Straight No Chaser, which I think is an advantage for the

speed type horses that do. I just think it's a it's a big

ass. I mean, he's been really, really

good. But we've seen some of the best

barns in the in the East Coast and you know, the the Midwest

try to ship out right, you know, to the West Coast for these

races with real horses over the years way back, you can think

about it and it's just not a lot of success.

Can Adam Rice pull that off? And then, I don't know.

I mean, Jack's town to me. Bob Baffert knew who's going to

be in this field. He has two races.

He's going to sit to the outside there.

I I think he might be the bet. Damn it, Scott, your Rooney.

That's all. I'm playing him.

Yeah. No, we're going to try it out.

I look is does is the chosen broad probably going to rid

this? Yes, probably.

Let's be clear. He's he's the class here that

the horse just wins. Scott I I have a soft spot for

horses like the chosen bron that are, you know, cheap breeding

jobs and, you know, just win. It was the 18 for 23 lifetime

He's won on the turf. He's done everything.

Just a great horse that way. And and I was so happy for that

group to watch him step out of those Cal bred races and into

open company and do the exact same thing.

Right. Did not bother him for a second

to be against that kind of company.

But you're right, man, it turned into a really interesting

betting race. What are the chances we get

12:50 or better on a Baffert Hernandez combination?

I I think there's no. Chance if you do, you don't want

to back him because he's not live.

You want him to open up. You want him to open up a like

second or third choice I mean. That's right, I hate.

I hate to be that guy and I'm not like that with a lot of

betting, but in this case, if this horse is live, he's going

to open up live. I doubt we're gonna.

He's gonna be an overlay and you're gonna and he's gonna win

by three or something. So what's the number here?

Do you think he ends up at 4 to one, nine to two, that kind of

number? For I was thinking 9:00 to 2:00,

but I mean that's a lot of money for this field.

This is a real field, but is it the best field that chosen the

bronze faced as well? That's a good question actually.

Between close the Game, Sugar and Happy Jack, those are two

really fast horses, no? Outside of the Breeders Cup

Sprint, but he didn't win that race.

So, yeah, I think this is one of the better, better sprints we've

seen, you know, graded state. Usually they're either compact

fields and there just hasn't been, you know, multiple really

good one, you know, good sprinters.

And at this point, you know, it's just kind of an intriguing

race from the chosen bronze perspective.

You got the East Coast shipper. It's, you know, it's kind of

neat. Yeah, no, it should be a fun one

for sure. Well, he's Scott Shapiro.

Please tell people where to find all of your stuff that you're

working on right now so they can keep following Scott Shapiro.

Yeah, you know, I'm on X or Twitter, whatever you want to

call it at Scott chap 34 post most of my stuff there.

I'm doing a lot of work for Express bet and 1st bet and then

you can find so a lot of my work in the Daily Racing Form as well

out of closer looks for Del Mar, Saratoga and Monmouth this

summer. You know the things below the

past performances there. Well, that's awesome.

Well, he's Scott Shapiro at Scott Shep 34, like you said on

Twitter. Go find him there.

Scott, I can't believe it took this, almost five years of this

show existing for you to get on, but so glad you could make time

for us tonight. Nah, it was great.

I'm glad that you reached out and it was good joining you and

I hope to reconvene sooner rather than later.

Oh, it'd be great. All right.

Thanks, Scott. Good luck with the bets this

weekend. Thanks you too man.

There you go. All right, Scott Shapiro joins

us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour, 40 minutes in.

Zach, go ahead, you can jump back on screen with me.

I do want to do a little bit more handicapping just because I

think part of the sequence out at Saratoga is interesting.

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free shipping to your house. Heading back to Saratoga.

Man, I wanted to talk about the last two races.

So race 11 is going to be, well, you know what, let's talk late

pick five. I'm a liar.

Late pick five starts with Race 8, and I am interested in this

because Zach knows me. And Zach, what kind of sequence

do I like to play? You like to play or are you good

at playing? Cuz those are two separate.

Hey at Monmouth I could have played the pic 15 and hit.

I guess it was like a random. Day so.

It's so isn't it great to hear? Isn't it interesting to hear

though, when Scott comes on, for example?

Yeah. And he and I today agreed on the

handicapping and I had a great day on Haskell day.

And it's so fast. It's so interesting.

I'm so glad we get to have so many different voices on this

show. But I'm sorry, I'm usually a

pick three guy like you said, right?

So. For me, what you like to play is

a pick 5. I'm just not very good at it.

And so I think there's a single to start the pick five, which is

why I'm bringing it up. And that is the one horse in

Race 8 coming off of a Sprint at Aqueduct under Flavia and Pratt,

who gets them out again for Wesley Ward, 34% for his horses

coming off of this kind of layoff, 26% in turf sprints.

The two of them together have not won a race together yet.

How about that? But I am not worried about that

in their three attempts total. And so Flavia and Pratt will be

aboard Scarlett Poppy. That'll be my single for the

weekend in the five and a half. Spa Mellon turf course 5 1/2 two

sport luck. Britt Sprint for the for the

maidens out there should be a fun one as well.

Race 9 is an optional claimer. I think this is one of the best

betting races of the weekend. On top of that, excuse me, on

top of that, Bing Crosby out West.

I included a lot of horses in here, but I would absolutely

include the two in the 8. Main beach is the two here comes

out of Monmouth wins his wins's maiden race last out so he comes

out new confidence Chad Brown trains here Sammy Camacho Rd.

last time we pick up Irad Ortiz here 21% together the two of

them at Saratoga should be part of the equation at the end of

West Hollywood. We mentioned Flavia and Pratt

again. This was a horse that Brogas

made and going a mile and an eighth on the turf there at at

Churchill Downs comes back against winners almost wins

second time out under Floral Giroux.

Ironically, the two of them are probably going to be the

pacemakers here. So I'm actually just betting

that one of the two front running horses will win here.

So for the two or the 8:00 to pick off this race here at

Saratoga in Race 9, an optional claimer going a mile into 16th

on that inner turf course. Then we moved to the gym dandy

itself. I agree with Scott.

We talked about it. We walked through that field.

I think this is Sierra Leone and it just happens to set up for

him in a really, really perfect way.

I'm rooting for Cease the Gray because I really want people to

have to sit in the fact that he's a good horse.

Yep. I just think he's going to have

so much work to do on the front with fierceness that Downs going

to try to get the lead. Like I mentioned, Podi Express

is going to press his as much as he can.

I just think they're going to be so many horses trying to go so

fast at the beginning that it's going to be Sierra Leone who

picks up the pieces in that race as well.

And then we get to the 11 and race 11.

Man is a state bred race. The last two on this Carter

State bred races. I mean good luck with race 11

people. This is this is about as open as

I can remember. 3 and up man New York breads, as I mentioned,

mile and the 16th on that melon turf course.

And so look for the 124789. Here is what I put down in my

notes. Clear conscience on the inside.

The one Javier Castellano out of the Lewis barn here for Lisa

Lewis was really good last time at Aqueduct over a mile and an

eighth just ran out of time under Javier Castellano, who

gets the mount again here. I think if that horse gets a

little bit better of a trip, he could win there at Saratoga.

Rabaja is the second horse here. Kendrick Carmouche keeps them

out here, broke his maiden last time in a mile and a 16th at

Aqueduct comes back here coming off a win.

Not a great angle though for Harold James Bond.

Bond trainer Bond with Kendra Carmouche, the two of them

though, one for their last seven.

That one was this horse in Rabaja.

I do think can go back-to-back here as well.

The four in here is Jim Mint 10, the four horse with Louis Saez.

Randall Raven Handel here as well just ran out of gas last

time. If that horse is in a little bit

better shape going forward, should be OK to go in this one

as well. Dylan Davis had them out before

that. This horse has hit the board

four times in 10 runs. Should be part of the equation

at the end there. And then 7891 that I think could

come in from out of the sky is topic Changer is gonna do all of

his running late. Finish fourth last time out but

only by a length and a half under counter.

Carmouche picks up Tyler Gaffell Leone here from Mike Maker, two

of them hitting right at around 20% should be an interesting

one. I think 12:50 is a very fair

price for that one and should be part of the equation as well.

I mentioned the 8:00 and 9:00 as well in that race.

And then to close out the card is the 12th race, a maiden

special for those New York breads going a mile on the Inner

Turf course. A couple of coupled entries here

and I, I think you have to play the One, not because of the 1A.

The 1A is probably gonna scratch 'cause I don't anticipate rain

before that point, so we won't get Empire magic.

But I do think the One is interesting in here.

If I can find the One wherever it is starting.

There we go, Miss City girl, Joel Rosario and Christophe

Clamon just missed last time at Aqueducts seems to be putting it

together, throwing the blinkers on.

So they're obviously gonna try to be a little bit closer to the

pace with this one in this race. So look for the one to have a

better run here in this field. The forest summer world will be

the favorite at post time man missed by I would say less than

a head last time out for grand motion and John Velasquez, a

grand motion on a bit of a tear right now.

He's hitting at 19% total, one for seven so far at Saratoga,

but should have a really good run under Joel Rosario here as

well. And then look for the 10.

I think the 10 is the best here. This will be North End lane

under Flavia and Pratt is going to get the lead most likely.

They'll try to they'll try to rock everybody to sleep here and

and pick this one off. Second off the layoff here for

Barclay tag 60% in those kinds of races has won half of his

races with Flavia and Pratt and a small sample size with just

four runs to their credit so far.

So I would use the 1/4 and 10 in the last there as well.

Thanks again to our guy. Thought about that little,

little Scott Shapiro on a Thursday.

So there you go. That's everything for me.

Thanks again to all the folks at Monmouth last weekend.

Had a great time. Thanks to Blood Horse and all

the folks, Sean Collins hanging out doing all those things.

We had a great time. And of course, Scott Shap, 34 on

Twitter, go fight all of his stuff, right, for both the DRF

and for Express Bet as well. You got anything else there,

Zach? Not really all.

Right, there you go. Well, you're a bum, Gandolfo.

And this has been Thursday, July 25th, 2024 edition to the Horse

Racing Happy Hour.