The guys are back with another edition of SoCal Saturdays.
Santa Anita the track, the Grade 2 Twilight Derby the feature.
Check out our friends at AMWAGER! They have a 100% deposit match up to $150 for new customers. Get in for Breeders' Cup!
The guys are back with another edition of SoCal Saturdays.
Santa Anita the track, the Grade 2 Twilight Derby the feature.
Check out our friends at AMWAGER! They have a 100% deposit match up to $150 for new customers. Get in for Breeders' Cup!
Some poor person is just having a normal day, some Friday.
They're excited about the weekend and then they see this.
Imagine, Barry, me playing terrible drums, you dancing
around poorly. I mean, it's just a whole.
It's a vibe. What a vibe this show is, as the
kids say, I'm Lou Rebellions, Barry Spears, the horse racing
happy hour, so Cal Saturdays. So so excited that you decided
to spend part of your weekend with us.
Yes, we're an hour early. I know which boy is busy.
Breeders' Cup next week will be out there.
Barry and me. You can hear us live on ESPN
Louisville, ESPN Radio Louisville Thursday and Friday
from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM Pacific Time.
New 11:50 here in the Eastern Time zone, as our guy Chase
would like to say 9 to 11, of course, in God's time, but we'll
be out there paddock side both mornings.
Tons of guests, tons of fun leading up to the races on
Friday and Saturday out there at Delmar.
Hell, Barry will probably have some ridiculous picks for
Thursday as well, so make sure you are tuned in for that.
I'll be on the blood horse feed as well throughout the weekend.
Blood Horse at the Breeders Cup. So if you're interested in
hanging out with us on that as well, Thursday, Friday,
Saturday, we'll be putting those up up at YouTube as well.
Very good morning, Afternoon, afternoon, afternoon.
Hi. Hi, afternoon.
Hey. Afternoon, hey.
It's morning in California you know what bleepa this is so Cal
That's true that's true leave it like that all right am wager am
wager.com. We encourage you to go check out
our friends over there. Had a meeting with some of the
folks at AM Wager this week and just thrilled with the response
to this show. So we are so, so grateful to you
if you've used this show to find amwagerandamwager.com. 100%
deposit match right now up to $150.00 with them that all the
Breeders Cup races. Of course, all the action as
well at Santa Anita. Go ahead and get in with them
over there. Busy 10 race card here.
Barry and IA little worried about the chalk picking that may
have happened or not happened prior to this show.
Thanks. But the early pick five, I hate
this Barry that it came up as light as it did as far as the
numbers, because many of the contenders of the races are
interesting. I just wish they were deeper
fields. And so it's disappointing that
way. There's still some very good
high end tail in those races. Yeah, you know, I, I think it's
just that weird period of time before the beers cup and and,
you know, a lot of the the better horses are kind of saving
themselves for next week and. Or to go to Del Mar for
something or whatever, Right? Exactly so.
So it's a little, it's a little special kind of situation, but I
think they they made do had a nice card put together.
The late part of the card is definitely better.
Well, and you and I were chatting about this off air
yesterday. Frankly was the races that
filled the most were the claimers, right?
And frankly, maybe moving forward, it's something that,
you know, we can take a couple cues on in Southern California
and include more of these races. I'll take a dime.
I'll take a dime. Claimer pick five with 14 horses
in every race. Yeah, throw it at me.
Let's figure it out. Let's have.
Fun together. It's funny you say that because
that's kind of what happens during the championship meet
down at Gulfstream is the early part of the card is typically
the lower level claimers and they run on synthetic and turf.
Sure, which they don't get the opportunity to because, you
know, a lot of places don't run those kind of races are really
lower level types like, you know, open $10,000 claimers on
the turf and you get those that that's usually like the first
race on the car to go stream. So hopefully they can, you know,
talk to each other and and get those those kind of situations
aligned. Well, and especially with the
low take out on the early pick 5, right?
I mean it, it, it makes sense that you would want to have a
great early pick five. I understand back loading cards
and you know, by the time people roll around to the cards, blah,
blah, blah. But when you're on the West
Coast, man, you're already getting those East Coast batters
early in the day and all that kind of stuff.
I, I just I think you could go ahead and do that again.
And wager.com for our friends over there, appreciate them
hanging out with us. At some point we will go inside
the mind of Spears and we will have multiple berries boring
plays of of the day. Today.
I raised one. We'll get it kicked off here on
SoCal. Saturday's Luder Bob Berry
Spears hanging out with you here at the horse tracing happy hour.
Starter optional claiming here. So starter allowance in this
spot. You can put your horse in for a
50,000 tag or not, $34,000 on the line here.
And this is one of those races. Barry I this is a fun one to
handicap, but unfortunately, only six horses in here.
You and I landed a very different spot.
You landed on Aloramo. Excuse me, the two horses.
Yeah, Aloramo, the horse I picked way back in September ran
really good in that maiden $50,000 Claimer 1 going away and
I finds a similar spot. I think this horse could do it
again. Honestly.
There's only really one speed horse in Willow T who got a
really, really exceptionally easy trip in that maiden breaker
back on in August, and I don't think that's gonna hold up.
I I think this horse is a little bit better Aloramo and we'll get
a trip, you know, kind of sitting behind that one and and
ready to pounce. I I think that alarmo if we can
get 3 to one, I'll be very very happy to start.
Off the game with a. $8 winner. Comes out of hand no doubt about
it out of the maiden 50 there at Del Mar going the mile a turf
course there of course and look that's an angle that I love and
I don't have that probably a bad job I'd be I did laying on the
chalk here in time to shine on the outside of Antonio phrase.
You get some them out from Mark Clatt was second in this level
last time was second at this level essentially 2 back did
break air maiden in a maiden optional down back here at Santa
Anita and that was on the dirt actually.
So this is 1/3 try consecutively on the turf.
Ironically, this horse now we'll have six starts on the turf with
only one on the dirt and the dirt 1 wasn't winning one.
And so just saying what happens with the condition book and
different things. So Barry, go ahead.
You have that one second. But the one horse you and I both
have in our handicapping as well.
What do we, what should we like about Willa T?
By the way, my niece's name, Willa in love with this horse
pops up. Go ahead.
Nice. Yeah, I think this horse might
be the speed, although that race I I did mention was very, very
slow, but it doesn't look like anybody has the desire to get
out of the gate and I think this one lands in front and and
probably will take him a long way just on that alone.
So I I think this horse is good enough to hang around.
Might be a little bit better than what that slow paced maiden
breaker was, but we'll see. Is there a horse in here you
think just pace wise can get out front?
Just keep it? That horse, is it her?
It's got to be her, right? Yeah, sort of a similar angle.
Tim Yaktine. Not great off these breaks, so
hopefully she's ready to go to the work.
Sort of indicate that she is not exactly a fast working group,
unless you want to look I guess to with love the five here.
Do you like Hector Barrios aboard this?
One no, I, I mean, that horse hasn't been out since January
2024, January 1st on the horse's 4th birthday last year and ran
OK. I mean, I, I, I wouldn't be
surprised if this horse jumped up in one.
But you know, it's hard for me at least to take a horse coming
back going a a mile from that long of a layoff.
I I would tend to think they may need one.
But this isn't the greatest field in the world.
And if that one kind of drifts up in price, I I would look a
little harder at it. Very seriously with you.
So Cal Saturday is here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour Network.
We go to race 2. It is the Tokyo city.
It's a black type 4 runners in this one.
They are going a mile on the dirt, $85,000 On the line.
We see Pony Express Gaming Mining District and Privman in
this one. And Barry, this is one of those
races I was talking about where I like 3 of the horses in here.
I just wish there were three more like them.
Yeah, absolutely. This is a this is a nice little
field and and I mean little. There's only four horses, but
the. You and I landed the same way,
by the way. Yeah, that's amazing.
When when we do, we usually score, but I was kind of taken
back that gaming wasn't the favorite here.
OK. So I agree with you on that.
By the way, what do you think it is?
Is it simply the morning line maker looking at speed figures
and saying the handicappers going to look at a one-on-one,
for example on the buyer scale with the one horse here in Pony
Express or look at Privman who's been well into the 90s and we've
got that shared belief last out from gaming in the 70s.
Is it essentially that? Do you think I I?
Think it has to be, it has to be because if you look at the body
of work and gaming, of gaming and privman.
Just yeah. What?
What? Just what?
What company they've been in? Right.
I mean, especially gaming, I mean you got Citizen Bowl,
journalism, Speed King. So this horse was basically
running with the best horses of this generation that are out
West and running well competitively.
I I really don't see how gaming loses this race.
You and I both 2 four and one in this race, Would you be
surprised to Priman won? No, Priman's a decent horse,
just probably needs a little more time and better
competition. But that that horse is
definitely on the improve. It's just, you know, a shame
that they're running into their own horse here.
And what do you make of Pony Express?
This kind of layoff for John Sadler is usually not a problem.
The horse worked well in September all the way through.
Now, here's my thing about Pony Express that I'm trying to
figure out, Barry, is why were they working this horse on the
Tepeda? Now, if I saw it once, I would
say, oh, it rained and they just wanted to run.
They wanted to stretch their, you know, legs, whatever, that's
fine. That's not it.
There's been multiple runs on the Tepeda here for this horse
who's getting on the dirt here and has never tried the turf.
What do you make of that? Well, I mean, in theory, working
on the synthetic is a little bit kinder, Sure.
And it's, you know, akin to a turf work because you know it.
The the surface is a little bit kinder and.
Bounced at least closer, yeah. Right, right.
And maybe this horse I, I would think because of the layoff
lines that I see, this horse might have some foot issues that
may prevent this horse from being out there all the time.
So working on the synthetic might be a good idea.
I mean, all this obviously is speculation, but you know it.
It could be a reason like that, an injury, something like that
or something nagging thing that keeps the horse from from
running his best and they don't want to waste it in the morning
and they want to get in the afternoon.
What do they need to do to get more horses in this race?
Probably run this race a week or two earlier.
I don't get it. I don't get it. 85 is a nice,
it's a nice purse, man. It's a nice purse.
That's tough. All right, Race 3 maiden
special. We're going 6 1/2 furlongs here.
This is a 2 year old race on the boys side of a things and it is
open company. We've got a horse in here that
is a second timer with an 80 speed figure Berry.
We've got some first timers that are very interesting as well.
Where did you land with experience or with a first
timer? I went with a first timer.
I'm under the notion that a horse like Blacksmith who is in
the Baffert barn but training at Los Al can't be one of his
better horses no matter how you slice it.
That being said, it's it's really peculiar that this horse
is just starting this late in the year.
How much they paid for the horse.
It's, it's just not a good sign, at least to me it isn't.
I'm going to try Easy Company. I think this horse has run
equally as good workouts as the five.
And actually the one that really sticks out to me is that October
12th workout, Easy Company had 112 and ones for six furlongs
and Blacksmith did that eight days later and gets a bullet and
it looks a lot better on the page.
So I think they're probably comparable, at least speed wise.
Maybe we'll see, but that's all we got to go on. 15 to one on a
horse that's working equally is a horse that's six to five.
I got to go with a longer shot. And you get 14% first time
winners for Richard Mandela with that and frankly better.
You know this too. We watched them all year.
Mandela isn't pushing his horses for the the fastest workouts.
He just wants them out there building.
Frankly, this horse is before before a debut multiple 6
furlong works. We don't see that outside end of
the Baffert barn terribly often, but we do see it with Mandela.
So I'm with you. If you wanted, especially in a
see in a sequence, Barry, where there isn't a lot of value
potentially, right with a four horse field in Tokyo City,
etcetera. This might be a spot where you
take a shot with a horse like that.
Unusual that you and me and A5 horse field come up so
differently. I will put Blacksmith on top
here. The most recent work at Santa
Anita seems to indicate that this one is ready.
Baffert moving this one over for the last two works most recently
as you mentioned though it's this is the son of Liam's map
$40,000 to breed over a half million bucks paid by the Lofman
folks and so should be interesting to see there maybe
one we should put on the Kentucky Downs watch list for
next summer. But I went 5-3 and one in here
and so I'll have Rio Grande. Second is 1/3 time started for
Bob Baffert. And then I do think acknowledge
me please is interesting except that it's a lot of time off
since June, man. And I do wonder why a horse who
showed up so well would need this amount of time off.
The works have been sort of whatever and and that bothers me
a little bit. So I think you got a chance to
kind of beat a nine to five here.
Get that one out of the way. I'll go 531.
Barry, you went 4-5 and two. Tell us about a postmodern spot.
Yeah, Mark Glad does pretty well with first time starters and,
and like I said, I'm not really enthused with the the 2 Bob
Baffert horses in here. You know, Mark Glad does well
enough with first time starters that I can give him a shot here.
The October 20th last work, one minute and three handling from
the gate is a decent work in comparison to the rest of these.
And the post position actually is, is, is OK too because of the
fact that the one is in the race.
I'm not really sure why the one is 9 to 5 here, but we'll take
that. I, I hope they bet that way
because that'll put postmodern in a in a different kind of
scenario and possibly even a better win kind of proposition
than if this horse gets bet down to let's say 2:00 to 1:00.
Should be an interesting maiden special there.
We move on to race four. Another maiden special.
We're on the Philly side of things here, but this is for
Phillies and there's 3-4 and five years old going 6 furlongs
on the dirt at 60 grand up for grabs here.
Six horses in this one, Barry. Of course, even number races
means it's time for Louis to go 1st, and I landed 6, four and
three in this one. You settle down over there, of
course, Juan Hernandez riding for Bob Baffert in a maiden race
at Santa Anita. The two of them, you know, I'm
worried about their partnership dissolving here, Barry, because
they're only winning at 40% together right now at Santa
Anita. And I, I got to imagine when
you're only winning at 40% in horse racing, you're not
sleeping very well. You know, I it's just got to be
sleepless, no? Checks not cashing any, you're
not making any money. You're not making any money, so
your wife's like, yo, where's the money?
And you got to deal with that. So I'm worried about it.
But this is a chance to get back on track.
You understand me? Get back ready ahead of the
Breeders Cup being a little a little nudge for that Baffert
Barney feels so bad for him here with this $300,000 purchase.
A daughter of Justify, a three-year old.
First run was in August at Del Mar.
I thought she looked OK. She kind of stayed and I didn't
like that about her first run. So you've seen her working in
tandem more recently at Los Al and trying to get that done.
Another one that's been working at Los Al the Mafford.
I know that, but you see the debut, what it was I could, you
know, after I slandered Blacksmith last race, I'm
actually all. Feel a little better?
Nico in this race, because of the fact that this horse had a
run, I, I think second time out is going to be perfect for this
horse. There's enough speed inside.
He's going to stick to them like glue and stalk that pace and win
this race fairly easily, I think.
You and I are both 6, four and three in here.
The four horses into the hall who almost won last out just ran
out of gas in a similar race at Del Mar at a similar time of the
same day actually at Del Mar as well.
What do you make of Into the Hall here?
Yeah, I think the fitness going that way is going to do this
horse a lot of good, especially getting to the lead.
My I think this horse is quicker than Magnificat who's inside of
them. Yeah, but they're both gonna be
out there kind of winging it and and probably Ding Dong ING out
front and that'll just yeah, that'll just leave everything
wide over for Nico. That's why I think that horse
gets a perfect trip. Now, if Nico gets the perfect
trip in this race can. You stop saying things like Ding
Dong and then wide open right after it.
I can't live like this Darren Spears.
I cannot do it. I got dad jokes in my brain.
I got I'm still a very immature individual.
You can't do this to me that that's my bad.
That's. My bad, but I'd fade Nico next
time automatically if this horse gets the trip.
Got it. OK, there you go. 643 for both
of us in that one. We'll move on to Race 5, the
closer of that early sequence of course.
And it also starts the pick 6th Twilight Derby Grade 2 feature
on the card. We're going a mile and an eighth
and another one of those races, Barry, We get five horses.
Hopefully say hopefully because I mean as miles really get
around on this thing, I hope so. This is a mile and an eighth on
the turf course there at the at San Anita, 200,000 on the line.
Of course, this is just for three-year olds.
So we do see the shipper from across the country in test
score. Who will be the four to five
favorite here? Obviously the ownership there in
the Ambermans trying to get a graded stakes win into this one
once again after that Belmont Derby win.
Barry Ridgeland in this race. It's as easy as 123 here.
I, I thought September 64. I, I, I really like the way that
this horse was ridden last time. I know they, they kind of
petered out, but I appreciate those kind of moves because a,
it's good for the, the race they're in and it's even better
for the race that they're going into next.
And I think that's really the key here is this horse is going
to get out in front and be able to control that pace.
Now, if this horse is a runoff, they might be in trouble if they
can settle, if Kimura can settle this horse, they should be the
goods because I don't see anybody getting in the front of
this horse early and be able to take the the trip around the
track with no issues here. I, I mean, I don't think the 2
is going to pressure him and Scipio might want to, but I
don't think they'll be able to do that.
And last, even though Scipio has has run some really good races,
I, I, I really think September 64 has a real big pace advantage
in edge here. We'll get the lead almost
certainly right. I don't want to say by default,
but almost certainly right and and default might be the proper
term here. Kazushi Kumar keeps the mount
here. Any concern about the stretch
out and kind of the fade of the mile last time or is that more?
No, because I mean 3. Year olds are getting that
experience. Yeah, right.
And I think that experience is, is what's going to make the
difference. Now this time they can go slower
or right and, or to finish right and, and I think that that's,
that's a good move here. OK, so here's my dilemma here,
because you and I are the same except for the first horse.
OK, So we obviously agree on the two and the three being
contenders in this race. I, I, I'm going on two things as
far as using test score on top here, Barry.
And it's not the four to five number because I don't want it
to be 4 to 5 is a couple of years ago I remember saying
probably on this program. Todd Pletcher is placing his
horses as well as anyone I can remember right now and he was
having a a year ship at the Churchill ship in the I mean, he
would just drop horses in it was it was Todd Pletcher off the
plane. OK, it really was.
Do you know who it is this summer?
It's grand motion, man. It's grand motion dog.
And like he's, he's especially turf, of course, turf racing,
but like, but especially turf races, he's dropping horses into
spots that make a ton of sense. When this horse dropped into the
Belmont Derby, no one was like, Oh yeah, you know what?
That's it. That's that's what we're doing
here. We all need test score.
And now the horse ended up going off at a lower number because
this horse was in the American turf, etcetera.
Won the Transylvania at Keeneland.
That's a grade 3. Let's be clear, that's way
better than any Grade 2 that's been run at San Anita on the
turf this year. And so at least at the
three-year old level. And so I just think class wise
etcetera, they're not shipping by accident to this race.
And so give me, give me Tesla. Definitely no accident, but at
least for for my counterpoint on this horse is I'm not convinced
that this horse wants to go that far.
OK, I know they won the the Belmont Derby, but I I think
that horse kind of laid over that field at that time.
You know, they tried going longer the two times after that.
The horse ran well, but not much of A kick.
And I think maybe mile and 8th is probably the ceiling here for
for distance. And I don't know if this is the
best distance. I would rather see this horse
run a little bit shorter baby basically a mile and 16th or a
mile. Not saying that this horse can't
win. I mean class wise definitely
fits here, might even tower over this field.
So I was trying to take a shot with the the pace dynamics and
leaving this source out with the idea that the distance and the
trip might not be the best for test score.
I think, I think Graham Motion agrees with you to the point
that he's throwing blinkers on this horse.
Yeah, that's what I mean. And that's pay.
Attention to earlier right? Pay attention.
A little curious that that's happening.
In I don't disagree with you. Yeah, I, we'll see.
Race 6 is up next. And Barry, this is an
interesting moment in the history of the show, which is a
very short history here, but it is the first of the ratings
handicap races that will be happening at Santa Anita.
It is a, I'm not even going to call it a pilot program because
it appears we are way past that point with the folks over at
Equibase. Of course, that's Chance Moquet
and the whole team over there. So First off, the first thing I
want to say, Barry, is I, I, I know there's a lot of criticism
on the Internet. You could give away free puppies
and popcorn and trap and there would be criticism.
OK, so number one, I'm going to dismiss the online criticism out
of hand, frankly #2 the people who are begging for like, how do
I get the transparency on this? And the exact like everything,
it's. Pretty simple, no?
It is very simple frankly, and so like I just at some point
read. That's really all it takes and
trust me, in my personal life, I understand the importance of
reading because I come across so many people that do not.
Just don't read. Just don't read.
So go ahead and check it out. Based on multiple factors, of
course, the horses forum and lots of different, lots of
different things and how the weights are determined and all
that sort of stuff. Fantastic.
So go ahead and go check that out.
But this is the first of those ratings races.
They're running for $35,000. It is for three and up, which
have earned a rating number of 79 to 70 for each rating step of
two allowed 1 LB. So in other words, they are
creating a handicap system within a a decade within a 10
point part of the system. OK, this is a race in the 70s.
If you are 79 and there's a 71 in the race, you're going to
carry four more pounds, OK? That is essentially how this
works. And so that is what we are
looking at here. Barry Topolo comes in as the
favorite from the rail. I went a very different
direction here in Race 6 as I should probably put that up.
There we go and I went to the five in last call.
Zonlo not so different because this one is a 2 to one on the
line here. But Zonlo, we'll get Antonio
Afrezu in the mount here. We're sprinting on dirt.
I would have not mind. Kept keeping Edgar Paeras for
this one, but we'll go back to Alfrezu who won at the $10,000
level 2 back was right there at the optional 20 level in state
bread company last time. Barry.
Part of this learning curve for us, those of us who sit down
every week and look at Southern California is going to be do do
we have to simply look at the past work and and the class of
these horses while we're figuring out whether the ratings
fit or not? Because this is a 122 horse and
there are 120 fives in here. And now some of this is based on
weight and based on age and different things, of course.
But that horse I don't think should be carried 122 a little
bit more than that. So I'll land on the five here.
Where'd you land and race it? I thought Tepelo stands out
insanely here. I think this was going to be 1
to 2. And in fact, I wish we had prop
bets, more prop type bets, because I would bet that Tapolo
will not be on the lead and will come and do and and be a
different running style. That's how much better this
horse is than everybody else in this race.
I don't think this horse can lose them.
And if they do lose, either the horses hurt, sick or they're
cheating, which probably isn't the case.
So I I just don't think Tappolo can lose.
OK. All right.
So you are one seven and two. I am 5/2 and 7:00.
So we agree on the two and the seven here, Barry.
I'll talk about the two and drop them three to 1 here.
Kyle. Frank keeps them out or gets
them out back. I should say, after being in the
real the real Good Deal Stakes at Del Mar just in August, this
one came back in an optional claimer on the turf just the
last time out. We get back to the dirt here.
I think that's where this horse wants to be. 4 times in the
trifecta in five runs lifetime. And so I'll use this horse for
that. Race broke its maiden on the
first asking at Golden Gate Fields.
How about that? Matt Dinnerman called that one
back in May of 2024. And then, you know, I say that.
No, he was gone by then. Matt was doing Oakland by then.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But the other one that you and I
share in a handicapping here is the seven.
So we both found the 12:50 Don't fly standby.
Yeah, that horse ran some pretty decent races at Turf Paradise in
particular. Those steak races were decent.
You know these these races are are going to be tough because
you get horses like Tapilo and the Seven in the same race,
right? You know, this one's coming from
Turf Paradise, Zia Canterbury, Prairie Meadows, and this horse
has been hanging out so Cal the whole time.
It it it's hard to to match up how the better horses at Turf
Paradise match up at Santa Anita.
However, in this race in particular, I think the seven
fits pretty well. The running style in particular
is probably more of the attractor than the actual
anything else with this horse, because I think they they'll
fall into a really nice trip here with drop them probably
going to the lead with a little of tougher than the rest.
This horse and Tapolo will probably be lined up right
behind him with maybe last calls on Zonlow.
So I I think that will make a little bit of a difference and I
think the post position itself will lend to the fact that this
horse is going to not get bet as much but.
They won 7 cold exact the same. That's what I was going to do
1/7 old Medina. That's it.
That's all I see here do. You know where I am, people
inside the mind of Spears. You understand that I knew
exactly what was coming. You knew where you can bet you.
Had the map do. You know where you can bet exact
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If you are a new customer at amwager.com, get you all set up
for the Breeders Cup. Double that, double that
bankroll, Barry, you understand me, double that bankroll that's.
What That's the that's the goal. And then you double it the next
day and the next day. Obviously right, that's how it
works. Easiest game in the world.
There you go race seven another ratings handicap 65 grand on the
line here Barry Boy, I'll tell you what these ratings handicaps
are going to catch on and keep putting up 65 grand at Santa
Anita, right? This is down the hill which I
freaking love 65 grand on the on the on the line here again,
Billy and bears 3 and up rating numbers here 80 to 95.
So if you are a higher rated horse, you are going to get more
money in the pools or this very a tough one as most of these
horses either don't have much experience going down the hill
or don't have a lot of success going down the hill.
Yeah, this is this is a really tough race.
They all kind of look the same on paper.
Late before absolute fire this weekend, and that's because of
these claiming races and because of this ratings handicap, yes.
Absolutely. You know, I ended up going with
number six Spicy bug and really I, I, this horse has not been
down the hill but is coming out of a mile race, a really good
one in fact. And I think that's just going to
accentuate this horse's kick. I say it all the time on this
show, how horses go down the hill after going a mile, cutting
back in distance. It really, really, really
accentuates their their leg kick.
And I think this is the perfect scenario for spicy bug.
This is what this horse wants to do.
I'm surprised they haven't tried this earlier, but here we are.
Hopefully we get that 3:00 to 1:00.
We're very similar here and how we're gonna talk about our top
selections here, but I'm gonna go 41 and two in here.
I'll take Miss Lizzie, who has won twice down the hill most
recently. Only time missing the board was
in the grades, three Las Amigas and it was down the hill, but
that was in January. A little bit of time off here
for Doug O'Neill, but look at the works, Barry.
This is one that's been flying on the Tepita at Santa Anita, I
think is really ready. I will admit this will buck a
trend if O'Neill does win this because he wins 4% of his races
with six months plus off. But this one feels a little
different to me, Barry, just because the horse did run this
year. It's not like we're talking
about didn't run since, you know, last August or something
and does have those works as well.
Drops back out of stakes company into what essentially they're
telling us, Barry, because of the rating system.
These are horses that are black types essentially, right?
Or or you know, something right below that, whatever that might
be. So I'll take Miss Lizzie here,
the four horse who I know is also in your handicapping 3rd.
I have the one in the second spot like you do as well.
So why don't you go ahead and talk about lunar impact in here?
Who does have success going down the hill previously?
Yeah, I, I think that's what I like about this horse.
You know, back February 2024, this horse was really running
good and, and won a race down the hill January 6th and then
kind of lost his way. They they went long, went back
to the 6th and 1/2 for a long ran a great race in this
direction and then, you know, they went a mile again.
And then last time I'm I'm sure this horse just didn't like the
the course at at Kentucky down. It's just the way this horse ran
and got eased up. It just not a good day for lunar
impact. I think they can bounce back Dan
Blacker on their home turf. I I think this horse will run a
much improved race and be right around it at the finish.
Yeah. And you got to try, by the way,
that's a grade 2 at Kentucky Downs, which I'm not kidding,
probably means that's a $2,000,000 race.
Yeah, exactly. Like you've got to go try.
So. And by the way, the the horse
had had success down the hill, right.
So you would assume at Kentucky Downs where you got to go down
the hill. Yeah, but.
You're going uphill too Uphill. That's the problem.
Shane like the uphill, She's like, give me the down.
Yeah. Oh, give me the escalator up and
then I'll take the stairs down. That's what she said.
All right, so. Leg workout, leg day, leg day.
That's all that was. That was a leg.
Day. That was a leg day race.
Well, Glute mentioned there. All right, we'll move on to race
8. This is a 6250 claimer.
No, we're not at Los Al, but I want to say this.
Where's the camera? There it is.
Good job, Santa Anita card. More of these, please.
Please. We will take all of them.
Fill, fill the gates for us to the next race, people.
It's very exciting. Late victory here, $3 minimum,
15% take out. Cannot suggest playing that
enough. 6 furlongs on the dirt. We're running for 15 grams
because damn right we are. Tons of options in here, Barry.
I laid it on the five. You and I are very different.
Late sequence. I like it.
I went 5-2 and six in here. Rousing Jewel.
Antonio Fraser gets them out here.
Here's why I'm interested. Why is Antonio Fraser riding a
6250 clamor? Because they think there's
something here. So they're going to try this one
out. He has been under.
She has been, excuse me, Aguilar, Silvera Garcia in
Americano before since Alvarado had the the mounts in Northern
California. I think rousing Jewel here drops
into the level that she needs to be at almost one at the $10,000
level. Last out at Santa Anita going 5
1/2 gets to go 6 here. Was making up ground at the end
of that race as well. So I think she's in a good spot
here. Barry, I know you in a different
spot with the two horse who I do have in my handicapping in a
rousing babe. Yes, looks loose lead looks
loose on the lead and that should go a long way in this
race. Not to mention the fact this
horse is kind of dropping in class quite a bit.
Those races up north in Emerald might be a little bit tougher
than this one. And and I think this horse, if
they are smart, Rick and Gonzalez just going to go and
just put the pedal to the metal and play catch me if you can.
I don't really think that the 10 can keep up.
I mean that horse has a lot of quit in running in condition
claimers while the 2 is running in open claimers.
I'll be it up north. It's I still think that's a
little bit better in in this spot.
You know, the Blaine Wright really knows how to spot good
horses, and I think he's done. Especially at the top here he's
really good at claiming level. Yeah, exactly.
This is what he's dealing with up there at Emerald.
So I I think this is to me, I like this horse the best on the
card. I'll say something else too
about racing in Southern California.
Now that they can condense the circuit, you need a guy like
Blaine Wright to succeed. You do because that's who fills
your gates. You really do.
You need him like four or five, four or five entries a card.
That's the guy you need to succeed at at Santa Anita.
Is, is a guy like Blaine Wright, frankly, up and down the West
Coast, filling the gates with these kinds of races, etcetera.
Maybe jumping up once in a while, winning a 2 year old
stake, whatever it might be. But you need dudes like that to
really care. I'm not kidding.
How to fill the gate? Yeah, no, you're absolutely
right. Because that's that's what gets
lost a lot of times where people like to see the headliners and
they like the Bob Bafferts and you know, the Michael McCarthy's
and the journalisms and the gaming's.
And but it's these horses in this race like rousing Babe that
hold the foundation together. And like you said, we need more
guys like that. We need these kind of horses to
to fill out races and to have their own races.
I mean, this one, the next race is 14 horses in the same sort of
class. So this is what we definitely
need. And as horse players, it's a
challenge because these. Races are challenged.
The horses are inconsistent, they do things in and out of
form and it makes for good payouts.
It's like everything that everybody wants, so let's keep
that rolling. Yeah, we don't have to pretend
that we don't love it. 5-2 and six for me here in Race 8.
Barry, is 246. Pretty easy to remember there.
The late double starts with Race 9.
It's a $5 minimum late double there at Santa Anita, as Barry
mentioned, 14 to the gate for this one.
Fingers crossed, $10,000 claimer for non 2 lifers 3 and up.
Six furlongs on the dirt. We're running for $18,000.
Odd race means an odd man goes first.
Barry, you're up. Yeah, I landed on #9 Kitten in
charge. First off, the claim for Chuck
Treese, who does really well with this, Yeah, I mean.
He my goodness, especially lately.
Yes, right. Yeah, He hasn't done it a lot.
But I mean, from years past and just knowing, you know, watching
Los Allen, all that kind of stuff, I know that he does very
well off the claim and and I don't think this is an
exception. There's enough speed in here.
This race should be fair. There's a lot of horses.
Hopefully this horse can get a little bit more forwardly
placed. I don't want this horse too far
back because it might get into traffic trouble.
But last time, first time at this level, second time at the
level is always the better race. I'm going with Kitten on charge
in first. I hope people heard my Ding Dong
joke earlier. Yeah, that was pretty because I
was setting it up for race time. You know who I got on top here,
Barry? Ding Dong and.
No more Ding dongs on top, you understand me?
In for the tag here. Last seen at Santa Anita in a
$25,000 claimer. Y'all be better than that.
This is a $10,000 horse. Calfre gets the mount back after
this one has been trying optional claimers and 25
claimers. Let's call this horse what it
is. It is a dime claimer back into
this. The sire is idiot proof by the
way, which I love that they named a horse No more Ding Dongs
when the dad is idiot proof. It's just a good job.
Yeah, but no more Twinkies. No more Twinkies is the damn.
It's a it's just a spectacular great, I'm sorry, Victory Rose
thoroughbreds. Shout out for chefs carrying
idiot proof with no more Twinkies.
It's a great job. It is a legitimately great job.
It was worth every bit of the $3000 stud fee.
I would do it just for the jokes.
I mean Joe for the show, good job.
Plus this horse is going to win in this 14 horse, this Kentucky
Oaks size field. Give me give me no more Ding
dongs on top. I agree with you about the nine.
I'll talk about the 11 now. That is self-sufficient.
That horse is 2 to one in here. I want to be clear, I wouldn't
have a stingle horse at 2:00 to 1:00 in this field.
No chance Herrera gets them out for Mathis here.
Has not been aboard this horse before, but this is Andy
Mathis's level as well. Two for 9 so far by the way it
wins and two more 2nd place finishes in nine starts in the
exact of four out of nine starts right now in this meet at Santa
Anita. This horse has been working
about as well as anyone in this group.
And so if you wanted to lean on that, that's fine.
And 2nd off the layoff here, a terrific, terrific angle for
Andy Mathis as well. So I landed, what was that
49114911 Barry giving away what kind of car he drives?
We know you got a Porsche. It's OK. 911 And Seth, what,
what do you like about Ariel? I look kind of the best of the
rest I know. Especially if the Avril Downs
earlier form translates. I'm with you.
Right. And that, and that's what I'm
kind of counting on. And I think, I think it does
translate well here. I'm not really enthused with the
11 too much. It seems like a, a bit of a
suspicious drop into this company.
I, I don't really think that they need to do that or to drop
this far, but they're in this race.
So that's why I kind of bet against the 11.
The seven should be coming late. I, I really, you know, it's the
running style that that's really prevented me from putting that
horse on top because I do think they fit very, very well here,
especially on the drop from 25 to 10.
It's a tough one, folks. Get as many as you can in there
for sure. That was 911 and seven for
Barry. I was 49 and 11 in Race 9.
We move on to Race 10 closer on the card here.
Barry calls these get out races, but I make money so I don't have
to call them out. It is what are you?
Trying to say. You know what I'm saying?
Down the hill, 6 1/2 furlongs. I'll see you on Tuesday.
I'll see. You next week?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's see, you're already new.
Where did Barry go? He said no.
Beat him in the alley. It's $64,000 on the line state
bread. Phillies and Bears 3 and up have
never won. Essentially a $21,000 starter
allowance here. Running for $61,000 in this one.
Barry, I'm going to let you go first because I'm going to admit
to the crowd I have no idea what to do in this race.
I have no idea what to. Do in this race.
I'm really perplexed too, but I ended up on the one.
Princesa del Tigre, look at you. I kind of agree with you
actually. You know it's the cutback again,
you know the cutback is is very, very strong there and this horse
seems to want to close on a Sprint.
If you look back at 2024 those races at Golden Gate,
Pleasanton, this horse was closing fast a lot and I think
this might be right up her alley on the cutback.
Kazushi Kimura to the hoop. Let's go there's.
A horse named Tina Turner in this race and you have that
horse third in your handicapping.
And I've I've been trying to come up with a good Tina Turner
joke. Roland, Roland.
So simple, so good. Too easy.
I got to say I love this from Steve Knapp.
I love this take a shot. Big purse.
You qualify for this your horse comes in with a ton of autopsy
out of that race yes and upside frankly right wins on debut
rallies to do it I'm with you I'm actually one and eight in
this race. I'm interested to see if either
of them gets it done. I'm also looking at Barry.
Where am I at a garden party here.
Tough race last out in state bred company should get back to
the form we saw at Del Mar. But this is one that that they
tried on the dirt at the end of at the end of May and it just
didn't work. So they're getting back to the
turf here and the two races off the layoff there at Del Mar were
both good. The last race was fine.
The horse was just it took forever to get going.
And so if if Herrera can get this horse out of the gate at
all, which is a massive question.
I think it's got a chance. But we've also seen Barry down
the hill. Sometimes these horses that can
rally are the ones that end up winning, right, Especially if
they can kick a little bit of kick on the dirt for whatever
reason, like whatever they can do there at that turning point
at the very top of the stretch, it can really matter.
But I'll go one and eight in here.
Interested in that one. The one right next to it as
well. Nancy Griffith is really
interesting for Edward Maldonado, Steve Miotti.
This one has been on the turf 9 times, finished second four of
them and they tried the horse down the hill in a high level
allowance for non 2 lifers and I and I just I don't I don't know
if that's one that can keep up. One that you and I have not
mentioned is my atom of a horse here. 3 to 2 for Jeff Mullins.
Why do we not like that horse? Is it the price only?
Don't know what we're going to get.
I mean, the horse is very, very inconsistent.
We don't really know what this horse does well.
I mean, is he a dirt horse? Is he a turf horse?
He's one on both. He's hasn't looked bad, but he
seems like a just kind of a middle of the road type.
I, I, I mean, he could easily win this race.
He has races to go to, but I, I tend to think that that last
race was sort of a perfect trip and and not really
representative of his talent. I don't think he's that good.
Honestly, as far as garden party goes.
I think that horse probably will need to just keep be kept clear,
OK, You know, kind of like a locomotive, you know, the horses
just. Put her in the middle, put her
in the middle of the track, just.
Stay clear and not get stopped. That'll that'll be the best trip
for that horse and I expect that one to be really running late.
So I don't know this is this is a really, really tough race.
I thought Tina Turner was a good get.
I just wish the price was a little bit higher at least the
morning line. I know Steve Knapp is first time
turf is over 20, but you got to try it in this race because it
nobody looks really good here. There's no standouts.
It could go a bunch of different ways and I can definitely see a
horse like Tina Turner running big OK.
All right. Well, Barry, you're going to be
up here on Tuesday. Yes, Sir.
And I kind of wanted to pause the show and talk about that
and, and what we're going to get to do together next week.
Just so everybody knows what Barry and I are working on
together coming up here. I'll take these things off the
screen so that you can see us. Luther Belberry Spears again,
we're presented by Amwager and amwager.com.
We appreciate them a lot. And one of the things Barry, I
met with them kind of our annual get together ahead of 2026 and
those kinds of things this week. And, and I sat down with a woman
named Marissa who works there. And I and I said to her, Barry
and I wanted to just say this publicly on the show.
The first thing I said to her, and I'm not kidding, was thank
you for your partnership on the show.
The best thing that's happened is I've gotten to know Barry
Spears this year. And thank you for allowing me to
do that. Because otherwise, I don't know
that we would have had much motivation to hang out more
than, you know, like once a month on a show or something,
Barry or not serious, like like, well.
Now, yeah, I mean, that's how it was before.
Like on my podcast or like, you know, I would jump on with you
guys on, you know, the SGPN and all that and, and whatever.
But the, you know, you and I had a we were cordial for sure.
But once we started doing this, it was like, yo get here for the
Wood memorial. Like it happened right away.
Yeah, it did. And, and, and so I've just been
really grateful for that. I pitched to Barry the idea of
going to the Breeders Cup, but of course he was in.
But I also pitched the idea of coming up here on Tuesday to do
a seminar with me in person rather than having to do it over
the air. And I'm also hopeful, by the
way, the government works on Tuesday for you, so you can fly
out here. But anyways, the yeah, those
poor people, the and Barry said yes, and then he said something
else after that. It's my 50th birthday and if you
want to know how much fun Barry and I are having, Barry is
choosing to fly on his birthday to a rainy Louisville, KY to do
a seminar at a restaurant he's never been to with a bunch of
people he's never met and hang out with me and and sleep in my
house the night before. We get up early to go catch a
flight to San Diego. And again, Marissa Amwager, if
you folks are listening or watching, we appreciate you very
much. We love getting to do this.
Barry and I have not Just fun getting ready for the show and
doing it all day Saturday. Your bum picks, your great
picks. Oh man, you're on fire.
You should never do the show again.
Whatever it might be on Saturdays is just spectacular.
It's a Barry ahead of next week. I just wanted to share that that
that moment I had with, with Marissa and how much this show
has turned out to mean to me. I, I was, it's caught me off
guard how much I've enjoyed it. But I hope you're having fun as
well. If you, if you are able to get
up here, visit martinilouisville.com.
OK, Martini, louisville.com. 30 bucks a head.
You get dinner. We'll have some bourbon tastings
and different things as well. We'll be doing our seminar.
And if you can't make it, it is 7:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday.
Barry and I will be going through as many of those races
as we can cover in about an hour.
All of it will not be available here.
It will be available at Bloodhorses, social media stuff.
So you have to find them at Bloodhorse all over the place.
It'll be on IG, it'll be on Facebook, it'll be on Twitter.
You'll be able to find it there. So look for us on Tuesday the
weekend. Barry and I are flying
Wednesday. You won't hear from us.
Maybe we'll do like a we landed Wednesday thing like what we're
seeing at Del Mar or something like that. 5 minutes.
We'll throw it up Thursday morning at 10:00 Eastern, 7:00
Pacific. Barry will be Co hosting Rebo
and Co with me on ESPN Radio Louisville.
OK, so at ESPN 680 for all of that, you can come find us.
We're efforting guests. But right now we'll have Matt
Bernier from NBC on Thursday. We'll talk to him a little bit
ahead of. He'll be on in the 11:00 or the
8:00 hour depending on your personal time zone, but we'll
have him on as part of the show. Then we'll talk to other
luminaries like Matt Dennerman, Steve Kornacki, hopefully Kenny
Rice will be able to pop by that sort of stuff.
So you'll get a lot of the the faces that you know and that you
affiliate with the Breeders Cup. But Barry and I will be on radio
for two hours Thursday and Friday.
Barry's going to have to pick football games next week.
That'll be fun. And then M, you're damn right
you are. And then on Saturday.
Probably better than I think. If you're better at that than
horses, it'll be a sad day, but a funny day, which I'm hoping
that's what'll happen. It'll be hilarious.
Anyway, that's Saturday right here, wherever you're watching.
This show will be on for an hour next week, Saturday.
I will announce a time once I have cleared everything up with
Blood Horse and I know what we're doing for Saturday, Barry
and I will be on, that'll be Carlos Morales, that'll be JD
Fox, that'll be Danny Brewer, that'll be Matt Dinerman.
Those will be That's the fun bleep around show on Saturday
ahead of all they keep smiling about Danny, Danny.
And so we'll be doing all of that next week.
So if you're looking for the the vest in the buttoned up shirt
that I'm wearing right now, Blood Horse, we got three shows.
If you're looking for this show, we'll be back at it on Saturday
and on the radio for two hours. So five hours of coverage
between Barry and me just on those outlets.
Well Barry, I am be on pump for next week.
It's so fun to work with someone who cares about this bleep as
much as I do, so I appreciate you very, very much.
By the way, if you ever have an idea you want to work with us,
whatever it is, horseracinghappyhour@gmail.com,
you are welcome to get a hold of us that way at Horse Happy Hour
on Twitter, climbing the DMS at Radio Louis at Urban Handicap or
whatever you want to do. We'd love to work with you and
we'd love to work with your track potentially as well.
For Barry Spears. My name's Louis Ribow, check me
out on Sunday. I'm talking to James Welch on
Sunday is a Scottish handicapper.
We will go through all of the British Isle shippers on the
turf for the Breeders Cup, one of our most popular episodes of
the year, every single year. That'll drop in the afternoon,
evening on Sunday and then of course, the seminar on Tuesday
with barry@martinilouisville.com.
But on all the blood horse socials.
We will see you then for Barry. I'm Louis.
Have a great weekend everybody.
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