Louie & Barry are back with another edition of SoCal Saturday.
Del Mar is this week's track, including the G2 Pat O'Brien.
Full card analysis.
Presented by www.amwager.com.
Louie & Barry are back with another edition of SoCal Saturday.
Del Mar is this week's track, including the G2 Pat O'Brien.
Full card analysis.
Presented by www.amwager.com.
play music. What's a beautiful day here in
Louisville, KY sitting outside 80° and sunny Lou remote with
you alongside Barry Spears. Another edition of SoCal
Saturdays we're presented by AM Wager Am wager.com really cannot
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You can bet Del Mar, you can bet Santa Anita, you can bet Los Al.
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Who beats who beats sovereignty tomorrow?
Which what you got? Nobody.
But if somebody were to, it would be strategic.
What is a strategic focus? To a strategic focus.
All right, there you go. I think, you know, I had our guy
Matthew DeSantis on the show this morning and his sort of, I
don't want to call it an upset pick because he wasn't calling
for the upset. He's actually calling for
sovereignty to win by 10 plus lengths.
That's bold thing to say out loud.
But yes, he has strategic focus running second.
So there you go. Cold exact a four three for both
Barry Spears and our guy failed to menace in the traverse
tomorrow. But of course, this is so Cal
Saturday. And if you haven't joined us
before, thank you so much for hanging out.
We are live every Friday around this time previewing Saturday's
card. The Pat O'Brien is tomorrow.
We winning in for the Breeders Cup and so of course we want to
pay attention to that as last year's winner and raging torn
how he doing the Breeders Cup. He did pretty good.
Huh, He did. All right, so we get back to
that sort of race, 7 furlongs on the dirt.
It's that weird in between 2 Barry, because you have to make
a decision coming out of a 7 furlong race.
Are you a sprinter at six or are you more of a Miller?
Right. That's really a question we
asked once we get to the Breeders Cup.
We'll get into that once we get to the Pat O'Brien later in the
card. But Barry, I thought for a
Saturday card at Del Mar, you and I really just looking at the
quick, you know, sort of handicapping here.
I found more long shots on this card than you did, which is
interesting to me. Fair number of state bred races
mixed in on this card as well where I thought there were some
open plays, but should be fun. Let's get into it.
We'll start with race one, of course, the start of the early
pick five there at Del Mar going a mile on the dirt.
And this is for two year olds, maidens and $100,000 on the
line. We see a pair of first timers
for Baffert. Not a very common angle Berry
for him to start someone at at least a mile.
Yeah, I, that I, I definitely found that a little odd.
It's not an easy thing to do, although when he does it, he
does OK. I mean, you know, hovering
around 1213%. But I, I decided to go elsewhere
in this spot. I thought the second time
starter in Trepido might be where it's at.
Didn't get out of the gate that well last time against Brandt,
who's really, really good and and I think that race might be a
little bit better than this one. So we're going to use Intrepido
on top. The Intrepido will break from
the four. I have that horse second in my
handicapping. I do have one of the Baffert's
on top here, the Juan Hernandez ridden Provenance in the three
hole son of Into Mischief here. And the reason Barry, I'm going
to lean on this one is actually a gate work a couple back on
August 3rd and then followed up with another gate.
Good gate work on August 10th. Both of those works show me at 5
furlongs. This horse is going to be just
fine. Frankly, none of these horses
except for what biggie, Biggie, Biggie have ever gone a mile.
And so it's not as though there's a ton of experience
going the distance. I do think that look, his
numbers, he's getting better. Barry, terrifyingly at first
time starters, his numbers up to 35%, which is an insane thing to
say, of course, but he is. He's up to that number.
He and Juan Hernandez, of course, winning at a a paltry
42% at Del Mar this meet, which is a pretty remarkable thing to
say out loud. But I'll go with Providence on
top. I do have Intrepido in the
second spot. And something I didn't hear
myself saying about 10 years ago was I really like the move from
Julian Leper Roux to Hector Barrios, but here we are.
But I do think Barrios is going to be better in this spot
probably than Leper Roux would been.
I in the third spot. We both agree on the 1:00 here
in Charlie's Curlin. This is a royally bred one for
Peter Miller. Yeah, I I thought this horse ran
a decent race first time out. Falcon Jet came back to run
pretty good last time and this source was kind of why didn't
get the greatest of trips. Why not?
Might be a little bit better than the rest with the fact that
this horse has run already. Yeah, no, I I love a second time
starter. Peter Miller wins a fifth of
those races exactly on the #2020% there with second timers
is Peter Miller. We move on to race 2 here.
I make these nice banners. We should probably use them to
our race too. We'll be a claimer, 25 claimer
on the grass here. We're starting in the chute
going a mile and a 16th. This is for three and up, which
is never won two races. Simple non 2 lifer here.
Barry, I'll go first with the even numbered race here.
You and I have the same top 2 here.
This is your boring play of the day in here.
You have the one on top. I have the seven on top and let
Sheamus go. By the way, that's pronounced
Sheamus. Had I let you go first, how
would have you? How would you have said that
horse's name? I really was thinking about that
earlier. That's how much I think about
him, Sheamus. You know why?
Because I know. Well, you a lot of time in
Boston. WWE.
Wrestling. Yeah, I got a little everything.
Oh man, that's why I hang out with you.
In for the tag here for Brian Corner.
Jose Valdivia Junior is going to get the mount.
Wasn't great last out at the end of the race, Barry, but this one
I thought was competitive throughout.
We're second in the form cycle here.
Really good angle for Brian Corner at 16% as well.
Horse put in a nice piece of work the other day as well, so
I'm hopeful that we'll see something good from him in here.
This son of Justify. But the one horse on the inside
is your boring play of the day. Go ahead and tell us why.
For the fact that I cannot trust Let Seamus go.
That's the only reason I I think these two are really identical,
just with two different running styles.
I just gave the nod to the one on the fact that this horse
might be traveling a little bit better late.
All right, so I'm 71. Barry is 1/7 in the third spot.
Barry, you have the four horse here to round out your trifecta.
What do you like about Mischief's Causeway?
Came back off a long layoff, didn't run all that poorly.
I know this horse counter was lingering at the back but
clearly needed that. Race.
Numbers wise should improve and probably stacks up to where
where I place this horses probably third or lower.
Yeah, I'm probably in the same spot here.
I've got Volatile Storm, the three horse in here in the third
spot and that's an Armando Iuso piloted for Lauren Robson who
never gets out to the West Coast, has only had 24 starts
this year, but very clearly trying to attack this condition.
If we go 3 back, this is a horse at the maiden 17 five at
Gulfstream Park that went a mile in a 16th, lost by half a
length. Before that was at Gulfstream,
same conditions lost by length and 1/4 got over the hump last
out on the synthetic at Presque Isle, but before that tried to
slop it. Indiana.
This is one that's just run well on the turf ferry and I think it
at least get a piece of the three volatile storm.
I was surprised to see the five to one number.
I expected it to be a little bit higher just considering the
connections, but I'm excited to see this one in this gelded
three-year old son of volatile. By the way, wanted to give a
shout out. We've got a a new sponsor on the
program today, but the Sazerac brands Buffalo Trace cigar
today. They make a bunch of blends on
the tobacco side of things that you pair with your whiskey.
So it's not that this has been dipped in bourbon or anything
like that, but rather it is formulated to smoke alongside a
Buffalo Trace bourbon. Unfortunately, Barry, I'm still
on the ice. I'm on the iced coffee right
now. All right, so race 3 a $20,000
claim. We're going a mile on the dirt
there at Del Mar. This are three and up pure, pure
claimer. No conditions outside of the
claim price, $36,000 on the line.
Odd numbered race Barry means it is your turn to go first, but
you landed on an even numbered favorite in the three to one
number six ready to pounce. Yeah, I think this horse off the
claim is going to be pretty tough in this spot.
Prove that this horse can win at this spot back in March off a
small little layoff there ran really good then they kind of
went over their head and was weren't really drawn well in
that race at Santa Anita on April 27th.
But after that the horses run pretty good since and I think
this race sets up well. You know, there's enough speed
up front with the one contrarian Chieftain.
Great King should get involved early and and I think Ready to
Pounce is going to sit a nice trip off of those two.
In this, in this, in this group, that that horse makes a ton of
sense. The only thing I would say to
winning with ready to Pounce is that is a horse that runs three
races, then wins, run three races, then wins, runs three
races, then wins. And usually it's because they
do. What they're doing here is they
move from winning at 16 up to 20, and then they drop back in
the ranks. Now, the move from 16 to 20 is a
lot less pronounced than some of the moves that this horse has
made before going say, from A225 Claver to a $32,000 allowance.
That's a big step up for sure. But in this case, this is still
a step up. So I'm gonna try to beat.
I'm gonna get a long shot here. Fireman Dan breaks from the 24.
Armando Iuso and Van Belvoir, those 2 / 4 at Del Mar so far.
Why not? Let's go.
But this one did run pretty well at that 16 level, losing to your
pick here. But before that, if you go back,
what is Santa Anita at the $20,000 level for non 3 lifers?
We get rid of that non 3 lifer thing here.
We get into that $20,000 kind of level again.
I just think under Armando where this horse wanted Santa Anita
going a mile, he could be better this time out before that ran
really well in the $20,000 level as well, losing by a neck in
second. I just can't pass on the 12 to
one price there, Barry. I think it's totally playable
and I think in this field he's a very logical candidate to win
this 6 year old gelded son of Summerfront.
Why not? But after the 6th horse there,
you landed on the inside. We're going to the we're going
to the rail for Contrary Chieftain.
Yeah, I think the source is is kind of forced to get into this
race a little bit earlier than they probably would want to.
That being said, this horse is kind of on the rise claiming
wise and fits here pretty good. I I just think the the pressure
that this horse is going to get from great king and vice versa
should be both of their undoing and and allow for a horse like
the one I picked on top rated to pounce to to take over in in
late stretch and and win this race.
So I think contrarian Cheevan is going to be tough though and and
hang around a long way. Yeah, should be interesting this
this race, this field in general, pretty difficult for me
to figure out. I put the three and the four in
the next two spots. Great King is a French bread.
Hell of a thing picking a French bread.
They usually think turf with those, but this is a giant
Causeway. Grandkids.
Smart strike mayor kind of made for the dirt.
Has not missed the board this year. 2 seconds 2/3 and a win in
five runs ran at this level. Last out at Emerald down.
So this is a step into better company.
But frankly was running at Santa Anita on the turf before this.
We're going to try the dirt here.
I don't hate that after winning at Emerald Downs, maybe we can
keep that going here with Kazushi Kimura, who's starting
to come around over 10% wins now on this meeting as well.
Did win one time paying 1590 with Francisco Rodriguez already
at Del Mar this year. And so hopeful that we can get
back to that kind of number. And then I also think the four
is interesting and Father Delay, Edwin Maldonado rides for for
the Hesbarn here and this one was third last time, Barry and
up the track a bit. We're, you know, coming back in
about 3 weeks here I think is really interesting because at
Los Al before that, this horse was really, really good.
And we're moving out of that 40 range back into the 20 claimer
here. I think Father Delay is a real
player here. So I'm 234 and six here.
I think a lot of different horses can win here.
Barry, behind the six, you had the one and the four as well.
Do you agree with me on Father Delay?
Yes, I absolutely do. And when you you do talk about
French bread, I think about pizza.
So if you want to throw that in the mind of Spears, that's what
happens when you say French bread.
I don't think you know horses on the dirt.
I think pizza. But that being said, I I'm in
total agreement with you with father delay.
I I think the the drop in class alone emerits this horse a a
good chance. Did you you went to Catholic
High School, right? Yes, Sir.
Did you have a cool priest teacher?
Like like a math class or anything like that?
Yes, English. What was his name?
Brother Ernie. Brother.
Ernie Oh, even better. Brother Ernie Oh God, my man.
Barry's been through it, folks. He's done a little bit of
everything. French bread, math teacher or
English teacher, brothers like, all kinds of stuff.
Brother Ernie. Cool guy though.
Come on. Yeah, Yeah.
Taught me Chaucer. What a guy.
Look at that, I'm brother Ernie. I apologize for the glare off of
the top of my head. My name is Louis Robot.
This is So Cal Saturday with Barry Spears.
Should I get a hat? Are we okay?
Is this just funny at this point?
I think it's just funny. I think.
Do I get a tan line with my headphones here?
Man, I hope so. All right, we got an event
tonight. It's also my wedding
anniversary, so that could be very funny.
But we'll move on to race 4 here on our SoCal Saturday program.
We also want to know why is it called Barry's boring Play of
the day if he lives in the no chalk zone?
Very fair question from a podcast that no one pays
attention to, but I would say this.
You leave my man Barry alone. Yeah, I'm like, I'm like that
guy under the coverage yelling about Barry Spears, but that.
That is a good question, but I I I figured I gotta give something
for everybody, you know, I can't just once.
In a while you box, you got to just pick sovereignty.
Once in a while you have to. It's OK.
Like it's the right thing to do. Race for is a $25,000 claimer as
the Bugs start to get a little more excited around here.
I like that $25,000 claimer on the turf here. 5 furlongs for
Phillies and mares that are three and up.
Claiming price is at 25. The purse is at 43.
Even number race means I'm going first here.
Barry, I landed on the four and the five.
You have both of those horses in your handicap tapping as well.
Shangri Lama is going to break from the floor under Antonio
Frisi, coming off a long break here from June of last year.
But this is a great angle for trainer Steve Knapp, and this
horse has been working really well this summer as well.
And so I'm hopeful that this one will pounce back, jump right on
the turf and be ready to go. What gives me hope about this
Barry is that the last time this horse took a break from December
of 22 to May of 24, she won on 1st asking and so my hope is
she'll come back and do that again here.
So I've got the four on top 8 to 1 on the on the morning line is
a nice sort of upset pick or excuse me, longer shot pick
there. But I do think Itzel, the five
horse, who is the 8 to 5 favorite.
I don't think this horse will be 8 to 5 at all by the time we get
to the game. Five to two seems more right to
me. I think there are more horses
with chances than the morning line makers making here.
The horse ran 4th last time DQ D to 10th.
Whatever will push that aside. But that was behind Tejon
passing bad Uncle Barry. We watched Fed Uncle Barry come
back and win just the other day as Barry told you on this show.
And if that's the case, then that really does flatter the
form of this horse dropping into the 25 level.
This is a 5 year old mayor. She's already earned $180,000 in
her life. Maybe they're just ready to move
on from Itzel in this spot. Barry, I'm not sure, but I know
you've got a different one on top in Tam's Little Angel.
Yes, I do. But one thing about Itzel I, I
think they're really going to really, really bury this horse
in the windows. 5 to 2 is probably fair value, but I think
this horse is going to be. It'll go the other way, OK.
Interesting. Yeah, I I think they're going to
bet this horse under under that 8:00 to 5:00 morning line.
Unfortunately, just because the bad class, then you got bad
Uncle Barry in there after the last race and and I think
they're going to take the bait, but I'm not with it.
I'm going to #7 Tam's little Angel.
I think this horse sits a better trip.
Also on the drop last time didn't get the best trips,
although I Yuso goes to the four here, but I still think tomorrow
can get it done. Hopefully he gets it together
and gets a nice trip for this horse.
I I think that one's the goods. You know what's interesting?
I have, I have Demuro on top, I think either once or twice later
in the card as well. Barry, did you have a lot of
hesitancy with that just because it hasn't worked out for him
yet? A little bit, but he's good
enough. I mean, I'm with you, you know,
he's he's a journeyman. He's been around, he's just not
seeing the ball well right now. And all it takes is really one
horse and some of the times, especially in these lower level
races, it's the horse that's going to do it more than it is
the the jockey by any means. So I I I wouldn't be too adverse
to take a shot like this. There's a cowbred in the in the
9 hole here that I'm interested in.
In Sensational ZZ trying the turf for the first time, it does
have a win over the Synthetic at Golden Gate as a maiden back in
May of 24. This one ran all over Northern
California, then came down to Los Alamitos to run during the
nighttime races and fared very, very well.
Last out at Del Mar in a 16. Claimer didn't get claimed and
one under Kazushi Kimura frankly had the lead by three lengths in
the stretch and they just held on no problem.
Did sensational ZZ Hector Barrios gets the mount here.
If this son of Ohm or daughter, excuse me, of Ohm at all.
Barry ends up liking the turf I think by the way, because it's a
first time turfer and the connections.
I think 12:50 is the baseline for this horse.
I think you might get 15 to one or something like that.
Sensational ZZ and the 9 might be an interesting play here.
Yeah, Why not? Those are tough reads, those
horses coming from those really short quarter horse mixed kind
of races and. That's why I like having a top
and a half of Del Mar last out on the on the board.
Like I know I saw that right, That one.
I know, I know. That's a real, that's a real
option. And just having speed in a race
like this kind of puts you in contention because there's
always, you know, with these lower level claimers, they fall
in and out of form. Some horses might not fire.
And then all of a sudden sensation of ZZ's winging on
alone on the on the front end. And there we go 20 to 1 upset.
And I I think it's certainly possible in a race like this.
We'll move on to race 5, of course, the closer of the early
pick 5, but of course, we want to remind you about our friends
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match up to $150.00 with them. Barry, move on to Race 5.
You'll go first here in a state bred maiden 50.
We're going 6 furlongs on the dirt for $40,000 in this 1/3 and
up are running in This one's Barry Hoochie land on.
I landed on the 910 figures. I thought this horse out of the
Peter Miller barn. I'm sorry.
Little long shot action all. Right, Yeah, a little bit.
Little bit I thought I. Love that 8th 1 is not a long
shot to you. That's a good thing about
knowing Barry Spears. Slightly slightly better
workouts than the stablemate, the 10 cross right hands and I
think the drop and the experience might end up helping
this horse in this particular race.
There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of speed here and from the
workouts and everything. I think this might be a little
bit of a push. They might try to go for the
lead getting lasix for the first time getting back to the dirt.
I I think this this race is kind of wide open.
So I'm I'm going to give the 910 figures a shot on top.
This is, you know, I got cross right hands, the 10 that you
just mentioned on top here, second timer for Peter Miller.
I'm going largely on that angle because we're going in the same
kind of company. But the horse what broke OK was
at least part of the race for a little while, did fade to the
back of the field by the end. But we've seen stranger things
that a horse do, you know, break better, get involved in the race
a little bit more early. I would have liked to see a
little bit better of a break from the gate in the last work,
but I think this horse breaking from the outsides has the
experience now, can at least get up and be part of the equation
during the race. I then went to Smooth Whiskey
going down the seven horse here. Gio Franco rides for Ian Kroyak
and so this one I thought showed a lot more last out.
Barry going the five and a half. So hopefully, you know, staying
at this kind of distance going 6 furlongs.
But the horse was making up and passing horses in the stretch of
Del Mar last time we saw him. So I think the seven to two
number makes a lot of sense for this son of Dad's Caps.
So I landed 10/7 and an 8 in here.
I know you like the 8 as well in Bazooka Charlie.
Yeah, seems very logical after they went long last time,
cutting back into a level where they they look like they can
run. I'm not really sure about 3:00
to 1:00 in this spot, but I think other horses are going to
get better. I think the sevens going to get
better a little bit and the nine and the 10 might take a little
bit of action to the point where the seven might actually, you
know, take really a lot of money and and be favored.
But we'll see. I I kind of hope that does
happen because I I think the seven is is a little
one-dimensional, doesn't get out of the gate very well and it
needs to make up a lot of ground.
As you can see by the the the races this year, this horse
hasn't really been betting any of them and is going to get bet
on Saturday. So we'll see.
That's a good point by you. It'll be interesting to see
where he ends up on the tote board there for sure.
But frankly that last race, I'm hopeful he'll be able to show
some of that pace again. Barry Spears, Luther Bow hanging
out with you. This is So Cal Saturday on the
horse racing happy hour platform and of course, we're presented
by Amwager and amwager.com. Race 6 up next state bread
maiden special weight here. We're back on the turf mile on
the 16th in the shoot there. This is 4 Cal breads 3 and up.
And I thought, Barry, we got to a race here where I think there
are some more logical sort of conclusions, except that I
picked a horse that hasn't won in 10 starts.
And so here we are. This horse just ran in May, a
little bit of time off the horse probably should have won in May,
frankly, right behind winning Patriot there.
But is back Antonio Phrase who gets them out here?
And I'm kind of baking on that. Barry, actually a little bit of
a change in style from Umberto over to Antonio Frisu.
And so interested to see if this horse bounces back and runs a
little bit better at Del Mar than he did at Santa Anita.
But I went 5-1 and eight in here.
You and I are pretty different here.
I do think big Bill on the inside for Umberto is the second
best horse in here. He's at least been part of the
equation the last couple of times.
Almost broke his main first time outgoing 6 1/2 on the turf
sprinting, but should get a better trip here. 2 back.
They tried to been open, you know, maiden special company
just didn't work Outback the state bred ran second was part
of the equation of early speed. I'm hoping they can figure out
with this horse how to rate if this horse could figure out how
to run third in a race for a little while and then you can
probably pick off a lot of races.
This son of English Channel. But yeah, so I went 5-1 and
eight. Barry, I know you went a
different direction here and you've got a longer shot on top.
Yeah, I'm going with #4 Mavman I I like that last race a lot,
actually. Any time you get a horse that
does something different and improves 10 points on the buyer
scale, to me that signals that the horse found what they want
to do, and now it's just about building upon that.
I think this horse ran a real good race from the far outside,
had some trouble but still kept running.
And I think that experience will do this horse a lot of good in
this race. And I think Ayuso will probably
be able to get this horse into the race a little bit earlier
than last time and get a way better position, and I think
that might make all the difference.
We're going Mavman on top. I like this one quite a bit.
You got Madman on top, you have Bonneville, Jim.
Second. If this exacta hits, buddy,
you're going to make some money. Hector Barrios gets them out
here for Jeff Mullins. It's almost kind of the same
sort of play this this horse improved going long.
I, you know, the buyer scale doesn't give that indication,
but to me they did because they were had a lot of trouble early.
We're going wide and kind of made-up some ground.
I I think with a better trip that horse would have been a lot
closer and it was something to build upon.
Gets the best turf rider I think right now over there at Del Mar
in in Hector Berrios, Jeff Mullins, his horses second time
out usually run pretty good. So I'm going to give Bonneville
Jim a real good shot in this race also.
Jeff Mullins 19% second off of at least a one month layoff will
send Bonneville Jim to the gate there in race 6.
Race 7, Barry, as we get into the later part of the card here,
late pick four does start here. We're going a mile on the dirt
here. Another State Red race is an
optional claimer, $81,000 on the line, $20,000 claim price at the
bottom here. A couple of favorites in here.
Barry. If we were going with Louise
Boring play of the day, this would be my race for sure and it
is an odd number race. You get to go first.
Would you land on at race 7? Yeah, I kind of figured Mr.
Disrespectful is just going to disrespect this field.
I I tried, I tried to get this horse beat, but they, you know,
he lost to Kings River Knight twice and just couldn't get the
lead. Barring that horse being in this
race, which clearly Kings River Knight is not, there is nobody
else that will get this lead. I think Mr. Disrespectful just
goes wire to wire disrespects this whole field unfortunately.
I agree. I have him on top as well.
I have longer shots in the second and third spots there and
I think that's very how I'm going to play this race.
Sonia De Vino will break from the 6th.
Daniel Herrera gets the ride for Peter Miller here, and this was
one that ran third last out on the turf after winning on the
dirt at Los Allen. It's something we talked about a
lot with Peter Miller when we were doing Los Alamito shows was
how often he was taking turfers and trying them on the dirt.
But this is 1 run that three back ran at Santa Anita in a
maiden special at a mile on the turf and a damn near 1.
And so this is one came back against winners for the first
time ever, ran third last time, including against Kasnani, who's
in this Kanani, who's in this race as well.
Excuse me, but Sonia Devino, I think getting back to the
surface, staying here at Del Mar, I think will run a nice
race here as well, back on the dirt.
And so interested to see if Sonyo Divino who broke her
maiden or his maiden, excuse me, at LaSalle over the dirt.
I can't get it here. Do you think there's a case for
him here? Yeah, why not?
I mean, behind Mr. Disrespectful, it could get a
little chaotic and I I would give pretty much anybody a
chance. You you think Carrie Gold right
next to him? By the way, Speaking of Eight to
One has a good shot here, too. Yeah.
Carrie Gold I was running an open company the last four
efforts and not running too poorly, dropping back into
state. Breads on the dirt.
The dirt efforts aren't too bad. Should be kind of best of the
rest. I can see this horse getting up
for a second. You also on your handicapping,
you have the four horse here in in a speed grazy.
It's an interesting race this way, Barry, where if the one
does do what we think he can, figuring out what's right behind
him could actually become quite a fun puzzle, frankly.
Kent de Zormo gets a ride for Aggie Ordonez here.
What do you like about speed gracing?
12 seconds at the distance really and then three at Del Mar
with one win. So I I think this, you know, the
elements were kind of there for this horse to kind of be the
best of the rest and finish second or third, which seems
appropriate in a spot like this where that horse has no chance
against. Disrespectful.
You mentioned horses that just hit the board.
Pete's Old Fashioned. The 9 is the third horse of my
handicapping for this one. Antonio Fraser keeps the mount.
This horse last three times out when 2nd, 2nd and so I'm just
hoping we're keeping that kind of form going.
This one has been running and claiming ranks, but last time
out was in a 25 claimer running at the 20 level here as far as
starter allowance is concerned. And so again, Barry and I both
think the one's going to win here, but I think Pete's old
fashioned with Antonio Freis you can at least get a nice check in
this one as well. Moving on to race 8, late pick
three starts here. If you were unfamiliar with
California betting, the late pick threes in Southern
California, at least at Del Mar and Santa and Santa Anita, are
$3 minimum or three dollar base a wager pick threes with only a
15% take out. Barry and I both love these
wagers. We're going back to the turf. 5
furlongs for sprinting in an optional claimer, 80,000 if you
want to put your horse in and 82,000 is the purse.
It's for non 2 lifers. Barry even numbered race means
Louis goes first. I went long shot here in Tejon
Pass for Peter Miller. This one.
One at the optional 40 lot level last time at 56 and four under
Juan Hernandez, who keeps them out.
This horse is never going to be 8 to 1.
I want to be very clear. I understand that, but I'm going
to try to hide it in a pick 5 or a pick 5 or a pick four play
late in the card here. But I think this one son of
Justify, we've seen these justifies on the turf just be
absolutely outstanding, Barry. And so the five lands on top for
me here in this race. Another long shot I think is
really interesting is the Mike Smith piloted Agency.
This one's been off since June, gets a little bit of a break,
but Mark Blatt breaks his horses back at 24% off this kind of
layoff. And this is one that one last
out at the $50,000 allowance level, we're dropping into the
20,000 optional claiming level. But this horse last time it was
in this kind of level at the optioning 50 level, finished
second by a length. And so I think it's 1 Berry that
can get there. So man, I I went 5/8 here
because I think those two horses absolutely have a serious shot.
You agree on Tejon Pass So that I'm doubting this horse is going
to get anywhere near 8 to 1. Yeah, I was thinking 8 to 1
might be a little bit of a pipe dream, but again, you see bad
Uncle Barry show up again. Bad Uncle Barry showed up again
in In Somebody's Past. Performances.
But yeah, I just think that this horse came back running.
I love when horses do what Tejon Pass is doing.
Ran in October, was kind of fading off, then comes back off
that kind of layoff running. So from October 5th to July
18th, this horse came back running.
I there's always a little bit of an improvement off of those kind
of layoffs. This is a certainly a good spot.
Tatum Pass can be on the lead off of it.
Lot of versatility there. I think Pete Miller is holding
the cards. I have the two in here in my
handicapping as well. Proof he rides Kyle Frey, gets
the mound for Sean McCarthy here.
Feel like I'd never say Sean McCarthy's name.
That's ridiculous. By the way, a much better
trainer than that was in that race with yellow card and Patron
Dioro, who will also be in this field, finished fourth in that
one for second off of a very long layoff here.
It's not a great angle for Sean McCarthy, except this horse just
put in an absolute fireball at work the other day after another
one breaking in July before this last race.
And so if that's any kind of indication of how the horse is
going to run, I think he's going to run really well.
So look for the proof he rides the two horse in this field as
well to be part of the final equation.
I know a horse you had in your handicapping as well.
Yeah, Proofy Rides I I do like, I just don't like in this spot
in particular because the two horses that I have picked in
front of them are just flat out better in Yellowcard and Tay
Home Pass Proofy Rides is is is a close third, but I, I just
don't think this is the greatest spot for this horse.
I'm definitely going to keep an eye down the road.
All right, so on this show, when we go through the biggest race
of the day, that will be Race 9, it will be the Grade 2 Pat
O'Brien. If you win this race and you are
healthy in November, you get a starting spot in the Breeders
Cup for free. Quarter, $1,000,000 on the line
here, 7 furlongs on the dirt. We see a lot of names, Barry,
that we know in here, but we like to play a game of buy or
sell if a horse can win. So I was trying to go with the
Irish theme with this one. OK, So if a horse can win, he's
an Oh, yeah, it's not my best work.
I think this one is much better. I think head pad is pretty
funny. If that one, the horse can't win
this. That's nice.
That's nice. Oh, you go over there.
Head pad do. I put the H on.
Oh yeah. Is that what you're saying?
Is that what I need to do? Oh yeah, yeah, whatever, it
works. Wait, should I just change it to
Oh yeah like that? Oh, because that, that'll be
like, that's like something for Gulfstream.
Like that'll be a Gulfstream thing.
Oh, yeah. All right, so let's go through
the field. Let's meet him here.
Doctor Bankman. Yes.
That Doctor Bankman will break from the inside of Verta Rispoli
rides here, which I think is something we can talk about
because Antonio Fraser will be aboard Stronghold instead of
Doctor Bankman head pad here. Or is this a an.
Oh yeah. This is an Oh yeah for sure.
OK, I know. Where do you have him in your
handicap? I believe I have him second
because the post position I I just don't like the post.
You know, being stuck on the rail again is real detrimental,
especially going 7 furlongs and they don't want the lead and
they're not going to get it here.
So it it puts them in a tough spot.
If they break well enough to kind of get tucked in behind the
speed, they might be OK. But lately this horse has been
shuffled back and and kind of has to make a a winning move up
the rail the last couple of times and they really don't want
to go around horses. So they're in a real tough spot
but can definitely win this race if things fall apart.
I'm going with Headpad here. I There's something about him
that I just don't like in this spot.
We've seen him three times this year.
He's run second twice in the Kelly's landing and in the
triple bend. He lost a roll on Big Joe who
has not turned out to be real great.
I think was just in good form at that point.
Lost by 5 1/2 Denisos. None of us are holding that
against him in the triple bend, but he comes back at the Bing
Crosby. Do we really think a lot of
world record in a jazzy Dewey? I'm not sure.
And so I'm going to go. I'm going to go ahead, bat with
him, man. I'm going to pass on Doctor
Venkman this weekend. I think the horse the most
difficult to figure out in the field is Speedboat Beach, back
for Bob Baffert after trying during Derby week, the Saint
Matthews Black type overnight in Churchill Downs, where he
finished 733 lengths behind. The next horse in the race, Fort
Bragg won that one. What do we say about Speedboat
Beach? Look at all my 7000 likes.
Fine. Don't be my friend, it's fine.
I was going to say it's just a head pat, not really too keen on
that horse's chances. I, I, I want to believe that
Speedboat Beach is in this race as a rabbit for the horse I pick
on top. Ma'am, Naman naman.
He's an absolute O Yeah, for me, an absolute O yeah.
Recent works have been outstanding, and I don't think
Juan Hernandez cares about Kazushi Komora's feelings.
And he jumped off of Mainmum and on the Speedbo Beach.
I think that is a giveaway that Baffert thinks that this horse
is ready to go. I don't think there's a planet
on which Kazushi Komora gets set ups from Juan Hernandez.
And so I'm going to go ahead and disagree with Barry Spears, who
has much better hair than I do, but I think Speedbo Beach isn't.
Oh yeah, the spot Spirit of McKenna will break from the
three spot here. This is usually where Barry says
something like, Oh yeah, and here's the reason.
Not this time, not. Fast.
My friend straight up head pat. No chance.
Not even going to attempt. Agreed with you.
Maimam comes in. Sounds like you have this one on
top. By the way, we agree this is a
no, Yeah. Yes, definitely.
And Oh yeah, I, I think Maiman is, is really has the look of
one of those horses that Baffert that gets hot at the right time
and, and kind of. It's a Breeders' Cup.
Right. And and then strings together 3
or 4 races in a row and you're like man, where did that horse
come from? This is Maiman.
We should try to find before the show ends what the Maiman future
is for the Breeders Cup right now in Vegas.
Like what it is right now cuz I bet you could get like, I don't
know, 80 to one or something on that horse.
Easy to for for breeders. Yeah, that, that would make
sense. Yeah.
And yeah, we're going through the Pad O'Brien field here on
Socal Saturday. We're presented by Amwager at
amwager.com. This is the horse racing happy
hour. Barry Spears, Louis Rabo hanging
out with you as we do every Friday.
Awesome rhythm will break from the five here.
Víctor García and awesome rhythm, excuse me.
And Armando, I use so on this one, who has won his last two
races and three of his last four.
All of those, though at a considerably lower level period.
Yeah, that's that's a head pat and send awesome rhythm on his
way. I don't hate his inclusion here.
I'm not going to lie. I think he's pretty fast.
It'll just be a it's he's, it's an uphill battle here against
this group. I said earlier that Speedboat
Beach might be difficult to handicap.
Stronghold might be in that group, too.
This was, this is 1, trying to figure out if the cutback in
distance is good for him, for this son of ghost Zapper.
We last saw him bury in January in the Pegasus World Cup
Invitational, the Grade 1 going a mile and an eighth at
Gulfstream Park. I believe you were there for
that one. That was never going to happen
for him. Does he have a chance here
though? He ran well in the Malibu last
year. Yeah, I think this is more his
his speed and I think the race might set up for his kick.
So he is an Oh yeah, in this spot.
I think he has enough class or back class to prove that he can
run fast enough to win a race like this.
If he gets the setup, he can certainly do it.
I just don't really like the price at 3:00 to 1:00.
I think it's a bit short. Yeah, I'm going head pat with
him here. I I don't hate the idea, Barry.
I just think it's a little too much of an ask at this point.
Could he win another race this fall?
For sure, For sure he could. But I think this one's probably
just a little bit too early on the calendar as far as his
comeback is concerned for me, for him to put out his best
effort, essentially. Another fascinating one.
Express train's going to try the seven furlongs here.
He's only done it once in his career.
This will be his 27th start, Barry.
Oh, yeah. Head pat for our guy.
Express train 12 to one. Head bet for the old man.
I, I, you know, he runs hard and, and I, I appreciate they,
they run them because he does cash checks, but I just don't
think he can win. Yeah, he still works really hard
in the mornings too. I always check workouts to see
how horses really feel about the job and Express Train still
wants to be there, so God bless him.
He's an 8 year old horse, son of Union Rags.
They bought him for a half million bucks.
He's earned 1.6 million in his career to Paulo will break from
the 8. John Sadler and Abel Escano in
here. He's also cross entered in
another race at Del Mar. I'm going to guess he's not even
going to run Barry, but I'll go ahead and put the head pad up
for me. Same, I I don't see how he gets
the lead but he can kind of make the pace even faster.
Yeah, he was in the Las Barrera and won that in May of last
year, but we have not seen that form since.
If we saw, if we'd seen that more recently, he'd be a
different conversation. But if that Las Barrera feels
like a long, long time ago, Mana Rose will break from the
outside. This is when we've seen it's Cal
bred. So we've largely seen in Cal
bred races before we dismiss Cal breds.
Of course the chosen Run was a winner of this race previously,
Barry, but this feels like a different Galbraith than the
chosen PROD for sure. Absolutely a head pat and I
don't see how this horse can win but I would like to see the
horse on this race to to add to the pace.
Yeah, no doubt about it. His better figures are actually
on turf, so I'm a little surprised to see him back on
dirt here, except that I'm sure they're hoping for a little bit
of, you know, at least a chance to get out there and get a bit
of a check. Did run really well in the
Johnston at Locile last September, but we haven't seen
him since November. So if you were playing a late
pick 3 Barry, who would you include in your ticket?
It sounds like Doctor Venkman, Maiman and Stronghold.
Yes, Sir. OK, so you are one, four and six
as far as your tickets for this race.
I AM 24 for this race and that's all I'm going to play in.
Here are two Bafferts and I'm going to try and lean on the two
horses coming off a big boy layoffs in this one.
We go to the closer. It is race 10 on the card there
at Del Mar. It's an optional claimer for
state bred Phillies going a mile on the turf, $81,000 on the
line. In this one, Barry and I landed
on the 10 horse toward the outside in lavender Love.
It's my wedding anniversary. Think it's gonna be?
Lavender. Ain't lavender at all.
Nothing. OK, Lavender love in it.
David Cohen. How about that?
Like seeing his name on there did break its maiden last time
out under David Cohen and I thought looked very impressive
doing it. I love a horse coming out of a
maiden win. This daughter of Grayson in this
spot. It is a state red race, so it's
frankly not at all a step up in class for me.
And Richard Baltz's horses go 21% back-to-back.
So I think that's enough of a reason for me to lean on this
one, Barry, in this race. So I landed on the 10:00.
I've got the one in my second spot, but you have guilty of
having fun the one on top. Yeah, arguably the two mile
races that guilty of having fun has are the probably the better
races that this horse has run. I, I know the buyers don't say
that, but the way the race set up and everything and how this
horse ran, I, I think they were or could be a little bit better
than any other races this horse has run.
Came back running on July 26th. Didn't get the best of trips.
I don't think this horse really likes that 5 for a long
distance. I think going longer is better.
Should be in the race a little bit earlier than they probably
would want to be. But I think that's a good thing
in this race because it doesn't seem to be like there's too, too
much speed. That's why you're 10.
It might be pretty tough winging it out there and I think the one
has the potential to sit right off that and and get first run
on these and and it could be the winning move.
Guilty of having fun piloted by Kyle Frey, who has hit the board
20. That's insane.
It's 32 times this meet only five wins.
The poor guy. So hopefully a breakthrough here
we saw guilty of having fun almost break is made under
Frankie Dettori at Santa Anita going the distance last spring.
And so the the form is certainly there.
You have the one on top. I think the 12, by the way, if
it does draw in Brev for Manuel Badilla, Antonio Fraser would
get them out here. That one almost one last out at
this level going this distance, etcetera.
So if the 12 does dry and I've got that horse in my
handicapping, I also have the four in here, Barry.
Hello, kiddo, kiddo. Juan Hernandez gets a mark for
Labrado Borosio. My first time mentioning in him
on this show today, which is ridiculous.
Big fan of Labratos. And so the brakes is made in the
last out. Everyone knows I love that
angle. Juan Hernandez keeps them out.
Had them out for the first time, last time with this horse.
So maybe get a little bit of back-to-back kind of momentum
with this one. So 10112 and 4 for me.
Here you went 1-6 and five. True patriot.
Oh, we get Hector back on the grass.
Yeah, I think this horse fits very, really well at this level.
His previous races, her previous races have been pretty good in
this spot. The only problem is is the
running style. This horse likes the pretty much
a dead closer should be a little bit closer to the pace.
I know last time just didn't get the greatest of trips,
especially in the stretch and looks looks pretty decent at
this spot. If you get 6 to 1, I might think
about putting this horse on top. You know, depending on how the
other you know all the other betting shakes out.
We're guilty of having fun lands 6 to 1 is is a really good price
on True Patriot if you can get it.
True Patriot, of course, will break from the six.
You also like a horse right next to her, and she's misbehaving.
Ricardo Gonzalez and Jorge Gutierrez combining on this one.
Kind of the same ideas True Patriot really fits at this
level, just doesn't like to win. I I thought this horse is a
really good try. Super kind of play.
With what you've seen from the card, the late sequence, what do
you think the better play is? Lean into that $3 pick three?
Or should we try to hit the pick 4 here or something like?
That with the. Pick three is gonna I think the
pick three could blow up this weekend.
It it, it certainly could, especially with that Tejon pass
the eighth race. Yeah, that that's going to be a
tough race and and you could get a price there.
I'd say either that or the pick 4 because you know, you could
really. Up the amount.
And then crush right single Mr. Disrespectful spread in a couple
races and and try to nail one in the last.
You might be able to to catch a good price.
Allrightwellnoheadpats@amwager.com Don't worry about.
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amwager.com. I forgot.
Oh no, I put up did. Did we get into my to Spears
today? Did we do that?
I think we did. We did.
We definitely did. 20. Two years probably better off.
22 years married for me today. Barry by the way, the the on the
lead guys agree with you on something.
How stunning. What a what a stunning thing for
that to happen around people would be.
Agree with Barry. Thank you.
Thank you for telling us that the marriage advice from Barry
Spears. What's the number one thing?
Make sure you stay funny. It's don't take yourself too
seriously. I don't hate that take at all.
If you don't, if you don't laugh with your spouse, man, it gets
it gets bad. Oh yeah.
Oh yeah. You ever you have that buddy
who's got a roommate. They don't like it.
It's their wife. Yeah.
That's not that's not what I want.
Yep. That's not what I want.
All right, well, I don't have that, and I hope you don't
either, but I hope you have a great weekend.
This has been So Cal Saturdays presented by Amwager here on the
Horse Racing Happy Hour. Tony Gwynn, the absolute go.
One of the great goats in my lifetime.
That's right. Harry Spears and his thousands
of dollars of hats. You like my wife with you.
Happy anniversary. Happy anniversary.
We'll be back next week. Good luck with those wages this
weekend. It's OK on Saturdays on the
Horse Racing Happy Hour Network. We'll see you next week.
Good luck with those wages.
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