SoCal Saturday | Santa Anita 3/22/25

Oh yes, 10:00 AM Pacific Time on a Friday, You know what time it

is. It's time to talk Saturday,

SoCal Saturday with us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour

presented by our friends at Amwager, hanging out with Barry

Spears. I'm Luna Rabo, we got you for a

nine race card there tomorrow at Santa Anita.

Very excited to dive into this one.

Shorter fields and some Barry, but some I think really

competitive races in other spots, certainly as we get later

in the card, some bigger fields and of course the San Luis Rey

grade three. I know Barry and I are both fans

of longer turf racing and so that's a fun one to get to cover

on this show as well. Barry, how you been, man?

How was last weekend? And of course, you know a big

thing going on this week, a couple of 100 point preps on the

Derby trail. So an interesting layout for us

that are those of us that are handicapping the races in

California, for example, half the jocks are at Turfway, are at

at fairgrounds, right? And so we're, we're, we're

seeing some of the, I don't want to say lesser notes or whatever,

but there's no Flavia, there's no Umberto, there's no freaky

the Tory, there's no Michael Smith, etcetera, etcetera.

Interesting day tomorrow, no? Yeah, absolutely.

When when the the mainstays are away, some chaos usually ensues.

So that that's what I like to see.

Yeah, I agree with you. I think that makes it a

considerably more interesting day tomorrow.

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at AM wager and am wager.com. All right, Barry Grace one at

Santa Anita tomorrow is a maiden 62 five or you can buy it down

the 50,000 pounds $50,000. Excuse me, if you are willing to

take the weight allowance here, mile on the turf purse is

$40,000 in here. Barry I, I always look at these

races, you know where they're at, Keeneland or Oaklawn or or

something like that. And it's made in 150,000.

You know, it's like, no, it's not, it's not a claimer.

Stop it. Like I know it has to hold the

form as a claimer, but don't do that.

And so 62 five for a turf horse running in made not less.

Probably not too many claims coming out of this one.

But if you had to claim one, who'd you land on here?

I'd land on #3 smiling tizzy I. I know this horse went long

first time last time and that is good enough for me and good

enough for this race. I I think this horse is just

towers over this field running style wise, everything else and

I don't see too many surprises here.

The only other one that I was very interested in his dirty

words, the one horse on the inside for Phil d'amato.

So horse is going to stretch out in this spot, Barry, and this is

something that Phil d'amato does well.

Second off the layoff here with this one sprinter out of 15%, he

doesn't have made claiming company at 2020% as well.

I just think this sets up well and with, you know, jockeys are

away the the mice will play in this case.

I think a guy like Antonio Freisu could be one of the great

recipients of, you know, of of guys being out of town this

weekend. So the 92 price, really

interesting to me and we'll see. And I think it's one of the

themes of the day, Barry, horses stretching out, right.

So we're going to see that in a lot of these maiden races where

horses were running at 5 1/2 and 600 tried a mile, which we see

quite often in California. Who'd you have in the second

spot here? I kind of threw 1 downfield in

the second spot with number six missile cruiser.

This horse ran OK first time off the bench at this same level and

kind of stepped up in class last time.

Gets back to this level and I think you know, and ran actually

behind smiling tizzy the three. So I I think those two kind of

dominate this all and your horse actually funny enough, there's a

scenario where this horse gets loose on the lead and and trots.

So you know that's that's definitely in the works here.

So this for a small field in the first race where it looks kind

of like if you're not really doing your homework, it looks

set up for the favorites to win right.

This is actually a more difficult race than it seems.

I have four horses listed out of seven that I thought were

interesting. Like the four horse in here is

20 to one second timer in jumper cables should not be in my

handicapping because I I just wrote that down wrong.

What I meant was the five horse here in flexible terms is coming

off of the layoff here and entering that O'Neal barn.

And we've seen stranger things that Doug O'Neal grabbing a

grabbing a horse off a claim like this put him in a good spot

like this coming out of Turfway. You know, he does the synthetic

thing as well because he has a string at Turquoise Park.

So Doug O'Neill, I would trust in this spot too.

Iran says might be another jacket really benefits from a

shorter jockey colony this weekend.

Race 2 on the card here is a 7 for a long dirt race for $32,000

claimer. So this is for three or four

year olds which have never won two races.

So non 2 lifers in this one. Barry, I'll go first here.

I'm a little chalky. I've got the 1-2 and three on

top, not necessarily in that order, but yes, exactly in that

order. Valentine's candy for me on top

under Iran says last time they tried the turf.

We're going to get off the turf, get back to 7 furlogs here in

this one. I think that's going to be

considerably better for this horse at the getting to the back

of the dirt where this horse has hit the board 1/3 of his

lifetime races. I think it's a better shot.

We get that weight allowance right as well, down to 113 for

this horse because of the rules for this race. 118 lbs for

three-year olds. Plus you get the bug here with a

raw test. I think.

Really interesting. Trotsky comes in here.

I'm a little disappointed. I went back and look, Trotsky

did not run in the Soviet Problem Stakes.

I think that's a bad job by the ownership of Trotsky.

You got to run in the Soviet problem states.

If your last name, if your horse is named Trotsky.

I'm sorry you just got to try. It's just these are the rules.

I don't make them but did win going 6 1/2 at Santa Anita 2

back under Calfre, who keeps them out here.

Stepped up in a big way against in $50,000 company last time

wasn't ready. It didn't run poorly but was

never really in the race, Barry. But I think you get back to this

level and really like it and then Zoom Zombo Bombo is the

three horse here. That's one.

By the way, don't miss Race 2 on Saturday because it's just going

to be fun. If Zumbo Bumbo wins this thing

and Frank Miramati's calling this horse coming down the

stretch, that's going to be fun. It's going to be and Zumbo

Bumbo, it's all Zumbo Bumbo or something like that.

It's going to be great. Herrera again on the mound here

for Pop Pro Dro MU. Easy for me to say.

So 123, Barry, I don't get to do that very often. 123 for me and

race Race 2. Yeah, I was close.

I went 134 you know I I do agree with you with Valentine's candy.

If this horse has improved like I believe this horse has, the

next logical step would be to win a race like this was in over

over his head in the Lewis and the king glorious.

And those aren't really good gauges of how this horse could

actually jump up. But given how this race shapes

up, this horse could actually be on the lead and and that that

could be curtains for everybody else, depending on what the

plans are with Zombo Bombo, because that horse can be on the

lead, but it doesn't really necessarily I I really don't

think they really want it. I think that horse is just

naturally fastened and is always close up.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

But Valentine's candy looks like the goods to me.

And then I use the Mongolian. All tie for fourth or for 3rd,

the four for 4th or for 3rd place.

Jeez, can't talk today. Had some you know closing

efforts. Should be passing tired ones

late I think. OK.

Yeah, once you get to 7 furlongs, it does make it a

different kind of race, right? Where if you've got a horse

that's used to 5 1/2 or 6 and not to that last bit of furlong

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Race 3 will be a six furlong turf Sprint here.

We enjoyed many of those last Saturday.

What ended up being, by the way, did you see the payout for the

late pick five last week, Barry? Oh man, yes I did.

North of 100K. So look folks, there's a reason

we love to wager in horse racing is because we see those numbers

and all of us like idiots think that could be.

But actually realistically it could be me.

So that's right, exactly right. Race 3 closes the early pick

three, $38,000 indicated here in a $50,000 optional claimer.

Again, six furlongs on the turf Florida, which have never

started or excuse me, which have started for that claiming price

before and have never won two races.

So another non 2 lifer here, Barry and I'll go first.

The four horse to me was very interesting at six to one coming

out of a maiden 50 win. So obviously qualifies for this

race because of that, but was good on the dirt 2 back and then

really good on the turf. Trying it for the first time

last out the footing just seemed to click.

Yes, it was, it was Flavi and Pratt and yes, I moved to

Antonio Frey. So it was a little bit of a step

down, but not so much on a day like today, very Saturday at

Santa Anita that I'm going to worry about it too much.

This kind of layoff. We're looking at 12% for these

connections. And you know, just this one

makes sense to me in this spot, especially at 6:00 to 1.

So I'm going to try to take a shot here with the four.

Who did you land on top with? I actually agree.

I went to the same horse. Look at us for the same reasons.

I, I think this horse is, is kind of versatile and you know,

didn't get the greatest of luck early on and then then faced a

horse like Winstock at that point that horse was razor

sharp. So I, I can forgive that effort

and the one after that and the horses come back good off the

layoff and, and I think is ready to, to take that step up.

Just the fact that this horse is putting 2 starts together is a

really good sign. Next source I'm going to use is

is Yogi Boy came off the layoff in this spot pretty good and

kind of that that 25,009 one is A2 lifetime is real comparable

to the 50,000 state bred ranks. I don't know if that's going to

translate as good here that it's open company, but speed figure

wise, this horse fits to a tee. So we're going to use that one

in second and then we're going to round it out with the six

traveling show. Just kind of a consistent sort

that that's been getting better. And this is probably a really

good spot on the flat 6 for a long turf.

Yeah, it was really good last time on the flat 6 for a long

turf. I appreciate that three that you

bring that up three finishes going in 2nd place.

So half of this source is starts at San Anita have been either a

win or a place in travel in show news at 10 is interesting in

here at 8:00 to 5:00. I left that one out of my

handicapping as far as Pigsbury because of the price, but not

because I don't think the horse can't win.

I just I would rather take a shot like you on the four horse

here at six to one that get eight to five on a horse that

didn't win last year in seven tries.

And I can get a horse and Mr. Leisure who's already won this

year right. And so I it just a little bit of

a mentality shift for me there as far as not just obsessing on

talent, but rather just, hey, what have you done for me lately

here? Yeah, 2 two things, though news

at 10 is better on the flat, but it just seems like this horse

really doesn't want to go 6 furlongs or needs a a little

class relief because I think this horse there, there's

something that that's just not clicking to get this horse over

the hump. And it might be just this class

is just a shade to. Too much.

Yeah, right. I mean, the source had seven

chances and and couldn't seal the deal.

I I don't know how that trend changes.

I would also think that this horse wouldn't be favored.

I, I think by the time we get to the post, I think you're right.

I, I think that's probably going to come down unless people just

stick on speed figures and they get stuck there.

If they get stuck on speed figures, they're going to stay

with that horse. But this horse again has not won

since it was in Dundalk. So in North America, this course

is over. And I'll just I'll, I'll play

against at 8:00 to 5:00 for sure.

With that, when we move on to Race 4, we're previewing the

Saturday card at Santa Anita. If you happen to be new with us,

he's very I'm Louis. We hang out here every Friday

and talk through the Saturday card, including the feature

which we'll talk about later on in the card.

In Race 7 in the San Luis Rey, a mile and a half turf race over,

over, over that downhill turf and then a little, little jaunt

on the dirt and then we stay back on the grass the rest of

the way there at Santa Anita. Race 4 is a mile race on the

dirt, common distance there. Same start and finish line for

this one, $38,000 purse and a $50,000 optional claiming price

in here. Barry, I'll let you go first on

this one. It's some names that we've seen

before that tried higher levels or at least have been bouncing

around in the maiden ranks that you and I have seen in this one.

Shorter field of five. There is a six to five favorite

in here. Where did you land?

I ended up throwing one sort of downfield.

I know this is a short field, but I went to the 4 Malibu

rocks. I think this horse his his

journey, his career has been kind of interesting and his his

form's a little bit muddied up, especially when you look at that

October 12th race where he faced Miramati going long for the

first time and the source kind of ran off and and just drilled

him. Then they went to the turf,

which is not this horse's preferred surface.

As you can see from the two starts, Comes off the bench

January 23rd, runs lights out in the maiden, then comes back and

runs a a really good race. Despite what the the line says.

I thought this race was pretty good against some hard knocking

types. Didn't get the best of trips,

was a little bit slow, and this pace scenario kind of fits this

horse's running style. Anything short of a a bad start

like last time, this horse should be right there.

I landed on the three looks rare out of the O'Neill barn, just

because this is such a classic O'Neill move.

The horse was looking good on dirt.

And then 23 ends. He brings us needs.

The horse needs a year off, comes back a year later in

September of 24. And he's like, you know what

we're going to do? We're going to go long on the

turf. And then he brings the horse

back in March. So this year it says we're gonna

go along on the turf again. The horse runs out of gas.

And poor Jose Ortiz was in to drive that day for big gap day.

And now we get back to dirt, where I think this horse does

its best work. And if you look, the maiden wind

was over this course, over this surface, etcetera.

I think, you know, the three finishes in the top 4 for this

horse on dirt at San Anita are good enough for me to take this

horse on top, especially Barry because I think I am going to

get a full 2 to one on this horse even in A5 horse field.

So I landed on the three on top, Barry with the four in this one.

Mr. Disrespectful will be the favorite, the five horse here,

Barry, by the time we get to post winning like 3:00 to 5:00

on the five, something like that.

Yeah, probably about that, maybe even 2:00 to 5:00, which, you

know, I, I would love to play against this horse for that.

Reason. But you got to wonder how far

the connections on the five Mr. Disrespectful will let looks

rear get away. And that's why I kind of lean

towards the horse I did because of the fact that I think those

two, it might get a little fast up front and Malibu Rocks could

be sitting, you know, a great trip alongside resemblance.

Close out the early pick five with race 5.

It is a turf race, 6 furlongs on the flat, on the flat there on

the turf. It's an optional, excuse me

allowance optional. Clever AOC 67,000 in the purse

here, Barry. 50K of people want to put their horse up for the

tank. It's for non 2 lifers at a

higher level. So we do have a couple of horses

that have won multiple races. We have a great second place

finisher in Player B, the four horse who is three runs this

year already and has finished second in all three of them.

In this race though, I I actually give, I give him a

really, really good shot here. I think Player B is an

interesting one in this spot. But money makes money, which is

the theme of this show. By the way is the three horse in

here for Kazushi Kimura and Mark Platt I thought looked really

good coming down the hill last time.

Did its best running though in a maiden breaker over the flat

over 5 furlongs at Del Mar. And if that horse could put

together that kind of stalking trip against Barry, I'll take

the seven to two all day. Trust Kazushi in this spot as

well coming off the layoff here. The second off the layoff.

I should say that's a 17% angle for Mark Ladd as well.

So I'll I'll go ahead and run with that and he, Kazushi Kubura

by the way, 4 for their last 17 at Santa Anita as well.

Good number there. So I'll land on the three in

this one. Yeah, I went to the 8

Schwerzmeier with the idea that this horse can press from the

outside and and kind of force money makes money to to kind of

really outrun him. And I think that kind of trip

might be OK here just for the fact that, you know, honestly,

if I were to or if this race were to be run down the hill, I

would totally pick Dancing Rinka.

But it's not. And I think Dancing Rinka can

get in the way of money makes money And then that might make

all the difference as to who wins and who doesn't because

agency, I would think will try to force the issue as well.

And that kind of puts money, makes money in a precarious

position of either going on with it and trying to force the issue

upfront or pulling back slightly.

And just that sort of decision. It's, it's just puts this horse

in a bad spot where I know, or I think I know that Schwarzmeyer

is going to be pressing from the outside and get a better

stalking trip that way. And that's really the difference

of me picking the 8 versus the three.

And then Player B finishes second all the time.

So logically, the 843 makes a lot of sense.

There you go. I think Zeus is where the five

here is really interesting and I want to give the connections

credit because this is a horse that's run on dirt much of its

career. Tried her for the first time,

last out. It was very, very good.

SL Espinosa gave this horse a serious shot, so don't look at

that. Missing the board altogether,

This horse was right there to blanket.

Finished with four other horses, or three other horses, I should

say. Excuse me in that case, and I

actually was four of the horses. There are five of them right

there at the finish line. That was a field of nine.

I think I can get that done as well.

So I have the five in the third spot.

So I went 3-8 and five. I got the four in the fourth

spot. But we know you're right, that

four horse is going to find a way to finish in the top 2.

Leave that one out of your out of your your exact as a

trifectas at your own your own peril.

Closes the early pick 5. Let's talk a little bit about

that sequence, Barry, just because you know, some shorter

fields for sure, maybe some bigger favorites as well.

But I thought some opportunities as well for, you know, if you

wanted to play sort of a less expensive ticket, let's put it

that way. For the early pick five, I think

there's an opportunity to either play it for a buck and really

try to press some opinions or, you know, pick a race, like

literally a race where you really spread.

Like keep that ticket around, you know, 30-40 dollars

something like that. How do you think you would play

the early pick 5 if you would play the early pick 5?

Well, there's a horse I like in the last race that that I would

actually single. And then beyond that, it's tough

because you know, you don't want to chalk it out because that

will never happen or does happen, but rarely and and it's

probably a payout you don't want anyway.

So Race 6, it is probably a race that I would think is going to

be a lot more straightforward. OK, so for the late pick 5 then.

Yeah, and. I would say race.

Eight yeah, race 8 would be the the the spread race.

I I think that one's wide open. And then race 7 you could

probably nail a a non favorite there.

OK. And get something you know and

be in position to to to make a decent score.

Got it. All right, well, we'll start the

late pick 4 here with Race 6 at Santa Anita on Saturday.

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The horse player Race 6 is a maiden 26 and 1/2 hour alarms on

the dirt course here. This is for 3-4 and five year

olds, the older horses carrying 126 and three-year olds carrying

118 lbs. Barry, I'll let you go first

here. A 2 to one on a horse that

hasn't won in 12 tries. I don't even need to look at our

collective show sheet here to know that you're not playing

that horse. Absolutely positively never will

I bet that horse or any like it in that. 2:00 to 1:00, What are

we doing? Oh my God. 2 to one.

Yeah. There's no way.

Bad. Bad.

Morning, Line maker. Bad.

No, we're not. We're not doing that.

Yet, and honestly, a lot of these horses are almost kind of

established themselves as as chronic second, third, fourth

place finishers. So I'm gonna go to somebody

that's a little bit outside of the box to #1 Black is my heart

with the idea that this horse is switching services and goes to

the lead and and wires this field.

The September 5th race on the turf going a mile on the lead

gives me indication that this horse might have a little bit of

speed. There's a couple workouts in

there, namely the March 16th work on the dirt that was pretty

decent in comparison to to the rest of this field.

So at 8:00 to 1:00 in a race that that's a little strange in

and out of itself, I'll I'm very comfortable taking a horses like

Black is my heart to take it all the way start to finish.

How black is your heart bearing spirits?

How is is is it pretty black? You doing OK?

Actually, I'm more like a care bearer.

You are type. I agree.

It's not black, you know. What do you remember those

things used to, like, shoot out of their chest?

Yeah. That's what I do.

They had heart ratings man. Like this was a heart lasers.

That's crazy bleed man. See, that's, that's the thing.

I didn't have a heart attack last year.

It was a thing to, you know, harness the power of, of what I

got in my chest. That's a heart, people.

Heart, Heart special. But heart in his chest.

I landed on a different horse and that is the four horse here

in this one. I should probably have my notes

in front of me for this show. Aeromax.

Why not? A son of Arrogate is trying for

the 11th time. Barry, there you go.

But I get 9:00 to 2:00 on this one and I get Victor Espinosa is

why I feel different about it. Tried maiden 20 at this distance

on two back and finished third by a head.

Almost didn't qualify for this by virtue of that race wasn't as

clean, excuse me, as as he did last time out.

And so I'm hoping we'll get more of that form we saw in January.

A little bit of time off here and, you know, the two of them

have won three of their last 12 races together, and Steve Knapp

and Victor Espinosa. So I'm hoping we'll get every

bit of 9:00 to 2:00 on that horse just because of the

repeated sort of failures for that one.

The three horses interesting in here to me as well.

Stepbrother Austin is running for the third time.

They stretched him out, tried the mile last time.

If you go back and watch the early part of that race for this

Doug O'Neill trainee, he's very much part of the equation early.

He does a lot of the work very of over the first four, the

first six furlongs. Excuse me?

I think if he could put that kind of race together,

ironically in one where he finished sixth, I think he can

at least hit the board and more than likely be very much part of

the top one or two in this race as well.

SO43 for me here, but I'm with you.

This is a tough one to figure out.

Yeah, you. Know you got a horse like

toppers wager who I picked for second who's O for 20, but the

cut back here makes a ton of sense.

I I would never put this horse on top, but in in a race like

this, that's not a huge field, you know, horses get tired and I

can definitely see this one get in good position early and

holding on for a piece of this. If you want a ridiculous long

shot play, just turn three first, start at three.

First time getting Lasix Sawyer speed the seven.

If you don't love this pick Barry, we're not friends

anymore. No, I.

Didn't want this horse just worked lights out at Pleasanton,

right yes had the lead in his last race at the maiden 20 level

at Pleasanton needed the time off here.

Gets Camacho Flores in the mound here now all of it sets up you

get Jose Aguila who's over in this meet as a trainer.

You got Camacho Flores who's over in this meet as a jockey.

You're going to get very even in this ridiculous field.

You're going to get like 35 to one on this horse.

I'm not saying he's yes, I think he's not a win.

He's just a finer. The Last Buyer's 2220.

Yeah, but the speed. The splits are obvious.

You and I look at that. You and I look at that.

The buyer figures in bold. The splits are not my friend.

There's a reason. OK, True.

I'm telling you, you're going to get that.

You're going to get that horse easily. 25 plus the one I I, and

I think at that point, that's worth a $10 wager.

No question about it. Yes.

No. Especially in this sequence

where you know, you're, you're trying to find somebody to

separate yourself with. That's the perfect horse to be

honest with you. You know, you got to have a

little intestinal fortitude to throw that horse on your ticket.

But those are the, I call horses like that heroes because they

separate you when they do win and when they it's exactly, they

make your ticket and the upside is totally there.

So you got to include horses like that.

All right, let's get into the feature for the day.

It is race 7. It is the grade 3 San Luis Rey.

It's a mile and a half. They start at the very bottom of

the hill on the downhill turf course.

This is for four year olds and up $100,000 in the Kitty for

this one. Barry, I don't know if you're

like me, but there are, you know, I look, I'll watch any

kind of horse race. If it's a 5 furlong Sprint or if

it's a mile and a half, whatever, I'll watch it.

I get it. But there's something about

these longer turf races where I, I think jockeys come into these

races more than they do, say in a Sprint.

And that's probably unfair because once in a while you

watch a are you, who's texting you dog, who's doing, who's

somebody crouching you on the show?

What are we doing? Yeah, no, I, I, I, we sent my my

daughter to get a haircut. So, yeah, OK.

All right. So she's not watching us.

I handicapped this ridiculous race, OK, But some interesting

ones in this. And you made the case earlier

that this might be a spot even with some proven horses in here,

horses whose names we know from high, higher, higher level

stakes in this grade, twos, grade ones, that kind of thing,

who are dropping into this company at this distance.

And Easter comes to mind. You're going to try to beat that

horse, I assume in the sequence, yes.

Not Easter, but Gold Phoenix. Sure.

OK, OK, got it. But honestly, the the you really

can't separate the two. They look very similar on paper.

They have similar running styles.

I think Easter may get the jump and that's the only reason I put

that one ahead of Gold Phoenix. But I think they run 1/2 here

and I think I threw the two in for 3rd at a big price.

Who you know, Mike Smith. I have to respect the way that

he'll probably ride this horse in this race because he probably

won't have a shot or think they'll have a shot.

So it's kind of going to be one run and that might do it to get

this horse into third and and, and hopefully for my sake, he's

in the try. Yeah, it's interesting because

you think of of mile and a half races as being exclusively the

company of more plotting closer types, right?

You really do, except in American turf racing, it's

amazing how often someone's able to raid on the front and just

hold on. Most recent example I can think

of in a super high level race like this was the United Nations

get smoking at at Monmouth Park last year.

Just got the lead and Fernando De La Cruz just wrote them all

the way in. And so I'm I'm with you, Barry.

I think pace is an underrated part of these races in that if a

Hector Barrios or something like that can get the lead and just

keep it, I think he could be a real problem, which is why I'm

going to try Atitlan. The 8 horse on the outside here

was last seen in the San Marcos and that was a a rare case where

the turf course was listed as good.

Otherwise I'm firm this horse is considerably better.

Five times hitting the board in seven runs.

I if we go back to that Twilight Derby that was at Santa Anita,

it was over a mile and an eighth last year in the Grade 2.

If we get that kind of performance out of this horse

where he is literally sitting right behind the leader, I think

Hector Barriers can could pilot this one in and I think 8 to one

is more than a fair price for John Sheriff's trained a horse

integrated states like this. Am I crazy to think that horse

has a spot, Barry? No, no, not at all.

Because if you look at the way the race shapes up on paper, the

four balladeer and mid Mike Mammoth, the five should be out

in front by a lot. And and and it's really after

that where everybody else kind of aligns themselves to attack

those two top horses. Your horse, the 8 will probably

get first run, right. So that's not, you know, and,

and if first run, it could mean a lot of different things, but

if the source could be just way out in front of everybody as

soon as he takes over the lead and and that could be all, she

wrote. And I've seen it happen a lot at

Santa Anita in that same way. So it's not out of the question

at all. Yeah, the other one that's

interesting here too is De Vent Propo, the seven horse here of

the Jimano Gonzalez combination. This horse was very good in a

mile and three ace optional claimer at Del Mar last year.

And then they moved his horse straight into just the toughest

races in Southern California over two turns on the dirt.

And Gonzalez gets them out here for the first time once in a

while. The change does you good, as we

learned from Sheryl Crow many years ago.

And I do wonder that's Yeah, you're damn right that's a

Sheryl Crow reference in 2025. You're damn right.

I I wonder if that's, that's the kind of horse.

I don't think it wins, Barry, but I think that's the kind of

horse that can really splice something exactly.

Yeah, absolutely. Find things like that, that to

kind of create value in, in these kind of races where on

paper at least it looks like the the favorites are going to

dominate. So yeah, finding a horse or two

that can kind of run up and and finish in the money is is a very

valuable thing. Late double starts with race 8

on the card here, $20,000 claimer for non 3 lifers.

We're going 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt running for $26,000 in

the purse. We see Havoc and Navy Man in

here at shorter Oddsbury at the ones and twos.

I'm going to try a longer shot here with the 8 horse.

And by longer shot, of course I mean seven to five.

I'm just kidding. Jerry Spirits in here.

I have a feeling you're going to disagree with me on this one,

but hear me out. I think this one at this level

and at this distance makes a lot, a lot of sense and this is

a big drop in class actually from the starter allowance.

This horse was in last time and was the favorite in last time.

I do wonder with Aguilar and I think this is a good fit.

I think this is the kind of horse once in a while a jockey

just fits. I think that's what's going on

here. We're now second off the bench.

Last time this horse was second off the bench, was out of a

maiden win win against winners and still finished third, a good

third going a a mile for the first time.

So this horse is just a game. We've gotten back to sprinting

with this one, the last three out.

I think when we got to the later parts of 2024, this horse was

just tired. They gave the horse two months

off, comes back in February. Wins immediately over the Santa

Anita dirt at the $50,000 optional claiming level.

Dropping in for 20 here. Barry, tell me why 8's not going

to win. Oh man, just the fact that this

horse is dropping in class off of a win is not healthy for my

psyche. I, I, I just have a lot of

question marks about this horse in this spot.

It's, it's like I, I was saying earlier how the 20,009 winners

of two kind of fit with this $50,000 level, but only in the

state breadth. This is open company, so it

might be a little bit different. I I tend to view it as a

negative, but honestly if you look through the the horse's

past performances hasn't proven to be worth more than 20,000.

I agree. I agree.

Plus he's yelded. I mean, I, yeah, he's gelded.

I, I think actually the, the likelihood of him getting

claimed. I mean, what does he earn?

Lifetime $42,000? We're running for a $26,000 per

say Barry. I actually think this is a

reasonable spot for him where he could just pick up another win,

maybe get some, get some confidence there too.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him.

Has he run at LaSalle before? He has.

I would not be surprised to see that horse in in.

They've started to do more like 1000 yard kind of well, like

$50,000 sort of stakes might. Be perfect for that, right?

And that's why I'm betting against them.

You know, I, I just don't think, you know, I, I just don't want

that. Not, not in this race and not,

you know. So who do you have on top?

Then more opportunities. I have the 10 on top.

OK, I'm. Throwing one downfield a little

bit, tequila talking, I think this horse gets a good trip from

the outside to press and stalk the pace.

Ran a real good race last time at this level and then even 3

back ran a pretty good race at the same level.

It's just a make or break here or there as far as where you

know or when this horse wins. But I think being in position

makes all the difference, especially in this race where

there's going to be some speed up front.

And I think if this horse inherits the lead at the top of

the stretch, they're not going to catch him.

And and that's ideally what I'm looking for and the price also

12 to one that'll. Be I have a different different

long shot. Second is is the 9 rogues son

ran at this level last time is going to drop a little bit of

weight here, but I thought looked good and and and was lost

at the beginning was tipped out a bit and then kind of made some

progress later on. But if you look at the last time

this horse won, it was with Kazushi Kumar and it was at Los

Al was disqualified in place third.

But the best running this horse has done is under Kazushi a

first, a second and a third with him.

So I am interested to see him getting back aboard for Craig

Lewis and I, you know, I, I think 15 to 1 is probably the

right price, Barry, but I I think that's one that I'll

probably try the old 8-9 exacta in this spot on the closer the

closer here. You love cold.

If people don't know, my man Barry Spears loves the cold

exacta. He just does loves the cold

exacta. Trust your opinions.

That's that's my guy Barry. So there you go.

You know, Dad, it's funny, just just as a as like a handicapping

journey sort of thing. You know, as I went through

learning how to play the races and play it better, I learned

that sticking to your opinion and pressing your opinion is

probably the best way because being indecisive will cost you

money because you add on tickets and you try to back yourself up

and so on and so forth. So me, I am very comfortable

playing it straight and then moving on.

If I don't hit, I don't hit and then I'm on to the next race and

and executing my plan. So doing that actually helped me

stick to the plan when I go to the races and play the races.

So that's why I tend to do stuff like that.

Yeah, set your budget and and run with it.

That's exactly right. The closer on the car is race 9.

It's an optional claimer here for non twos mile on the turf

course here $67,000 in the Kitty.

We will see Philly's mirrors for and off in this one and a a

solid field of nine here. I know you like a second time

starter on the outside Barry. What is it about a second time

starter that us handicappers just love?

Because I do too. I I'm with.

You. Yeah, because you know the horse

is going to get better. I mean, just even in your own

personal life, you do things once, you're probably not as

good as the second time you did it.

There you go. The same happens with horses.

Defiance ran a really good race. First time out was really wonky,

didn't get the best of starts was out wide, then back inside,

then back outside. I think part of that was the

rider too. So and and still managed to win

despite all of the nonsense. Right.

I saw this tour school last week.

You know how like John Wick they have like the the the Assassin's

network. Well, we got a snipers network

and I got I got the video and everything.

This horse looks amazing and well behaved.

So I expect this horse to be a lot more quote UN quote put

together this time and run lights out.

Honestly, if I didn't have to pick two other horses, I would

have just picked the 9 and called it a day.

Love it. OK, that's awesome.

OK, that's a really strong opinion.

That's the good stuff. The other part is we use the

term professionalism a lot with horses, right?

And, and when you can see a horse that gets it this early in

their career, Barry, I mean, for ownership, for trainers got to

be super exciting, number one. But for horse players as well,

when one of the things I, I would say this, if I, if I

follow a horse, Barry, and I bet on it multiple times, it's

because I expect that horse to give me an honest effort every

time, right? It's that kind of thing.

And so with a horse like this in the 9 horse defiance, you're

you're banking on the first race being emblematic of what this

horse is, but also that that work in the paddock where the

horses getting used to race day conditions and does a good job

of it means that the horse is also very likely to rebound and

run well again. The second time I have that

horse in second spot, I have the 6th one spot ahead Barry.

The only difference here is the 9 horse went down the hill last

time and is moving to a mile. I'm not arguing with that angle

at all because we've seen that work so many times at San

Anitas. So I'm not going to argue with

that angle. I just think eternal Rain has

done it twice, won the maiden special weight race and then

came back and gets winners. Last time it looked really,

really good. Did lose to Prancing through

Paris last out by a neck, but I think you get back to that kind

of form again. I would only use the 6th and the

9 nice in this ticket to move on as well.

But if you're looking to fill this one out, I think the four

horses interesting here in Word play.

The English bred here the the daughter of Saxon warrior.

What's the last time you heard the name Saxon Warrior?

How about that? Barry?

That's a good one, but comes in here for Hector Varios as well.

I really mostly just like the price here. 6 to one horses won

third place three times in three attempts at the distance.

So maybe I do a cold 69694 try. Why not?

Let's go in the last race there at Santa Anita after those top

2. Barry, do you have, do you have

someone else that you think can can pick it up and go ahead and

unmute yourself? Yeah, the three needlepoint I I

think this horse could have used that last race and was way far

back was off slowly, you know, looked like a horse that that

ran a race that he needed should probably be better this time.

I do expect this horse to be closing late and you know, there

there's some scenarios where this horse could win.

So don't don't take too lightly. But yeah, I like I like the

three to round out this, the six, the 963 try cold.

Yeah, yeah, a little cold try. I just, you know, we talked

about second time started, that's a horse with a second

time start in North America, right.

So going to be more familiar with things and with the course

itself and walking out, you know, doing the schooling in the

paddock and all that stuff. So hopefully get some value up

there. I think I would be remiss to not

at least ask you what you're watching for those Derby preps

tomorrow. I'll give you quick ones.

Can John Hancock get the distance Louisiana if he can, we

got another Brad Cox monster great.

And if and then built on paper far and away the most consistent

horse of Louisiana. Can he come back and run again

was magnitude simply a freak for a day and other horses catch up

and then and in the Ruby posters coming out of that Remsen and

hasn't run since then making a debut at 100 point race.

I don't love it like California Burrito.

Can that horse go ahead and win again after his win in the

Battaglia really cement his spot and be the best office in

Setting since what, 2 pills a couple years ago?

I think those are the headlines for me this weekend, Barry.

Yeah, no, you definitely nailed it.

I I just think Brad Cox is holding all the cards in

Louisiana Derby. I like both his horses there.

John Hancock stretching out. I mean he out gained Owen

Almighty who is is a tough horse.

He he's been a runner since day one and for that.

Hold on a second, it's OK to say he's.

On the yeah, he is awesome and and on the stretch out for the

first time in a stake race, he outgamed that horse.

I I think that goes a long way. The only question mark for me is

whether or not that horse can pass horses.

And that's I, I don't know if we're we're going to see that,

but it's definitely there. And then in the Ruby, I like

flying Mohawk the five. I agree.

Gosh, man, 15 to one, we're getting none of that.

We're getting like, I'm just going to worry.

We're like 4. To one not.

Now you keep. Touting it No, I mean I'm

touting you. You settle down over there.

By the way, horse racing happy hour live at Turfway tomorrow

around noon Eastern Time, 9:00 Pacific so you can TuneIn for

all that coverage as well. He's Barry Spears live blue air

bow. This has been another edition of

Soul Cal Saturdays with our friends at AM wager.

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Barry Spears. I'm Lou Rabo, thanks so much for

spending part of your horse racing weekend with us.

Good luck with all those wagers tomorrow at Santa Anita.