Stephen Foster Day Preview | Matthew DeSantis

I asked. No, Gandolfo, but we're stuck

with this music. This is the horse racing happy

hour, hanging out with Matthew DeSantis.

My name is Louis Rabo. You know where we are.

Studios of ESPN 680 and 105 coming here in Louisville, KY

Happy. Of course, they're on Long

Island. We're getting ready for races

that will happen about a mile where I'm sitting here under the

Twin Squires on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

We have an actual grade one of older horses.

I can't believe it. We'll get into that one, of

course, in the Steven Foster, but six stakes races on the card

for them graded. I think only Woodlawn has more

graded stakes over the weekend, but we will get into the pick

six there at Churchill on Saturday.

I mentioned Matthew from Naira Bets.

Any good promos we need to know about up at your place?

Yeah, we got some 10% exacta boosts actually all weekend

long. So for your vertical players,

make sure to opt in and very simple, just opt in, play some

exactas and get a little extra money, yeah.

I like that a lot, frankly. So there you go.

I assume I will be seeing you in New Jersey in a few weeks.

Yes, at the Haskell presented by Naira Bets and I will yes, be

there with bells on and always loved to make it down to the

Garden State and a really great race last year.

Of course, thrilling victory by Dornick over mind frame who not

to get too far ahead of ourselves, we're going to be

talking about a little bit on this episode, and that's Stephen

Foster. We have a very stirring edition

of buy or sell for this week's version of Foster.

It's going to be spectacular. I think you will appreciate the

very, very minutiae detail that Louis would have to to get ready

for Stephen Foster day. But hey, man, I wanted to open

just, you know, you're up there in New York.

You're on the ground there. I was not at Saratoga this year

for the Belmont yet to make the trip.

I'll have to do it next year since I know at least I'm really

hoping it's the last time they do it because I do love Belmont

Park that much, but that is neither here nor there.

The experience over that weekend, man, I just wanted to

ask you, you've been to both now.

How is it different this year? Yeah, I think last year there

was a sense of, Oh my gosh, we have to get here for this.

It was the first time there was a lot of excitement and it

resulted in just an absolutely packed environment.

I mean, if you've ever been to Saratoga, anybody listening, it

usually is a pretty free flowing place.

There's a lot of room in that picnic area.

You know, you can walk around with your family.

It's really approachable. I remember last year on Belmont

Stakes Day, it was a nightmare walking around.

It was just packed. And this year the crowds were a

little bit diminished. But interestingly enough, I

think people had a better time because there wasn't 150 person

line to go to the bathroom. And you know, it was

interesting. I actually talked to someone who

said we sold more Belmont this year than we did last year

because people weren't turned off by waiting in a little bit

in line like they might have been.

So it was a, it was a really fun weekend.

Obviously unfortunate about some of the weather, but overall it

was still a great weekend of racing.

And yeah, we're going to do it one more year next year.

And then we're moving just right down the road from me to Belmont

Park. We can't wait for the new

Belmont to be open. Yeah, I was just talking with

John Cat, who's the CEO over a Breeders' Cup on Monday and just

the you could even feel it amongst the BC folks about how

excited they are to get to the city into the new place.

He talked. You know what's interesting,

Matthew caught me off guard a little bit about how he talked

about it was he's convinced. And it's interesting to hear

because all of us who are in this and especially in, in the

major markets, there are round tracks that are older, right?

So I'm around Churchill, I'm around Keeneland, I'm around

even a place like Ellis Park is really, really old, right?

And so we get some of the new rebuilds.

You know, I think of Turfway as the first one of this generation

that went back from the ground, right?

Getting with Belmont and Pimlico for sure.

And you know, I guess before that I should include Gulfstream

Park for sure as part of one of those rebuilds that have not a

renovation, but rather a rebuild as well.

I I don't think I got to old Gulfstream.

I never did, Yeah. I just, I don't think I did

that. And I think that's why I didn't

register for me in my mind, but it's a it's a thing where he

talked about sight lines for on track patrons.

And I thought, Oh my gosh, we're actually talking about worrying

about what people are going to see when they show up to the

place. And I one of the things I always

hate Matthew, is when something lulls in horse racing, we just

assume it's gone forever. We can never get it.

It's gone forever. It's like, or, or we could do

things like, I don't know, renovate the darn places, make

them nice or make up places that people want to hang out.

Hopefully that's what Belmont will be.

I, I think that is exactly what Belmont is going to be.

And there are a few things that frustrate me more as, and I'm

sure bettors can kind of speak to this as well.

When you're watching a race replay, when you're watching a

race live and then they just disappear behind a tree for the

better part of 5 minutes and you're just like, what the heck

is going on right now on the backside?

Because I can't see anything. They're running behind a giant

side, they're running behind a screen, they're running behind

trees. And you just, you miss out on

the actually, quite frankly, as a fan.

And when you're there on the day of the race and you're trying to

watch a race, I mean, it's one of the reasons not to go too far

afield on this. But why?

A city like Washington, DC is one of my favorite cities

because it was designed from the ground up with these beautiful

sight lines where you could just look down these boulevards that

go for 2 miles in any direction as opposed to Boston,

Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York, better cobbled together

cities that kind of grew over time.

And so just being intentional about the design of the new

Belmont Park, I think is something this really exciting.

And obviously, putting patrons first is always a good thing.

Look, the the the story of the weekend of Belmont was, of

course, sovereignty winning after the rest and journalism

running second again. But how good is raging Torrent?

I think is the more interesting question coming out of that race

because, you know, we try to figure out these, you know,

these Breeders' Cup fields, as I just mentioned, and you try to

figure out who it is that's going to be that horse, whatever

that is, and why it is so fun to talk.

Stephen Foster in a in a mile and an eighth race and

eventually the classic in those things.

Yeah. What are races on that Breeders'

Cup under card too that are one turn or one mile or less, that

kind of thing as well? Where does Raging Torrent fit

for you right now? You know, you rarely see a horse

packets form quite the way that he has, you know, winning the

Malibu, going overseas to win the Kodafin Mile and then coming

back to New York to win the Met Mile.

I mean that those three races back-to-back to back put him up

there with anybody. I mean, we just saw a horse like

Rebels Romance win at Royal Ascot last week.

And we always, you know, marvel at his ability to kind of go to

Hong Kong, go to, you know, Dubai, go to Europe, come here

to North America and win and run his best race.

And for a horse like raging toward to do it for trainer Doug

O'Neill. I I think that horse, when he

gets out on the front end, I heard one of the owners say it

to O'Neill. He goes, man, when that horse

gets out up front, he's a stubborn son of a gun and you

know it. He really is.

When he gets out up front, he's a different type of runner and

you know, he's certainly only going to be somebody you got to

look for in that Breeders' Cup mile.

Now it's going to be interesting.

That's a two turn race out there.

So it'll be interesting to see how that changes some of the

dynamics. But yeah, he's a good one.

And then I'll be honest, the other one who it was a three

horse field. You don't want to get too crazy,

but man alive does Mark Cassie have a good one in Nitrogen,

that horse. I mean, she, you don't want to

overstate it, but if I was Cassie, I know he's going to

keep her on the turf, but I'd run her against some of the

Phillies in the three-year old division on the dirt as well,

especially with good cheer. Having not returned to the work

tab, Immersive looks like she might need a race or two to get

back into top four. That three-year old Philly

division looks wide open and I she's the best 3 year old Philly

I've seen to this point. Yeah, I I agree with that

assessment especially. Did you find yourself rooting

for journalism just because he was the one who took the trip to

Baltimore? Well, he's also my top pick, so

yes, I found myself reading good journalism.

It's a good reason. That's a solid reason, but no.

I did you know, he you respect a horse that tries all three and

he was the only one that that did.

And you respected even more when you see how the connections

handled him that they clearly had a plan in place.

Mike McCarthy had that horse looking fantastic leading up.

And I will say I was watching the walk over with my colleague

Kaylee Shapiro. And she's a big sovereignty

supporter. That was her horse since last

October. Journalism has been my horse

since the low S futurity. And she looked back at me after

they all walked by and she goes, our two horses just look better

than everybody else. And I said, yeah, they do.

And sometimes it's that simple. I think Baeza is a really nice

horse, but probably still need some time to grow out as a

little bit more of a late developing type.

But yeah, journalism hard not to root for that horse.

And, and hopefully we see him back here in, in the Travers or

something along those lines here in the East Coast coming up.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if they choose to ship them

back East, right, if he ends up in in one of those races or if

it's a hey, we're thinking Breeders' Cup with this horse.

And we're just going to, you know, we're going to do the

we're going to do the the big cap and we're going to do those

races or the Pacific Classics. Excuse me, I want to do that

and, and kind of get him into that.

He just doesn't, he doesn't strike me as a horse that's

going to want to take months off between races.

I think he wants to, I think he wants the action to be involved

in races. I think he does too.

And McCarthy kind of lamented the point that there's not

better spots for him out West right now at the Del Mar meet

and that he probably would have to ship to the Haskell, to the

Jim Dandy, to the Travers if he wants to keep running.

And I mean, the problem potentially is you keep running

up against Sovereignty, who just, you know, appears to be

the class of this group. And so maybe you can manage

things where, well, maybe Sovereignty skips the Jim Dandy

and just goes to the Travers. And maybe we pop in for the Jim

Dandy and get a Grade 2, get a win and maybe we, you know,

focus on, you know, the Pennsylvania Derby, maybe after

that or something along those lines.

So, you know, there's some ways that he can maneuver if, if you

don't want to go against older horses, maybe before that

Pacific Classic. Yeah, I, I, I think we'll see

journalism almost certainly in the Pacific Classic.

It just makes too much sense for having the connections where

they're based on all the things. Plus it's a lot of money and

it's a winnable race for them. All right, let's be really clear

about what it is, right. And shipping to Philadelphia is

different than shipping from LA to San Diego.

Yeah, No. And I got to say, Matthew, it's

funny that you mentioned, you know, being with Kaylee at

Saratoga and, and you see these horses and you say that's it.

That's when I saw sovereignty for the Derbies, when I saw him

in the mornings. And just, I just saw him and I

went that's, I'll tell you I, I by exact, I got a text right

after the Derby from Mike Adolfo, who was on the show for

years. And all it was was him putting a

heart on a tweet from or a text from Tuesday that I sent him

that said sovereignty got that ass on him.

And that's all I wrote. Him all, I wrote.

Him was sovereignty got that ass on him and then the horse used

all of it and got to the front. And then again in the Belmont

for sure. Just in general, yeah.

You've seen a lot of these three-year olds, you've been to

Belmont's and all these things. How good is sovereignty to you?

He's one of the best 3 year olds I've seen in the last 10 years.

He's that good. I mean, he's he's yeah, he is a

ridiculously talented horse. And I think what really made it

stand out even that much more in the Belmont was that he showed a

different dimension, sitting so much closer to the pace than he

had previously. And I think that's why I always

sided with journalism a little bit because I thought he's going

to have that cushion. He's going to have that.

He's going to be up 3-4 lengths on sovereignty.

But here's the thing, if those two are anywhere close to each

other coming at the top of the stretch, sovereignty is going to

win every single time. Journalism's got to have a 4-5

length cushion and then maybe he can hold off that late charge.

But if they're on relatively even terms or Sovereignty's two

lengths back, it's over. I mean, that horse just has.

And you feel bad for a horse like journalism who is so

clearly better than everybody else in this crop outside of

Sovereignty. And it really does feel a little

bit like a secretary at Sham situation where it's like Sham

would have been this amazing horse if not for the fact he was

born in the same year as Secretariat.

And so it's really interesting to see.

But Sovereignty incredibly talented.

You felt so good for Bill Mott too.

I think, you know, just winning that Kentucky Derby, but then

coming back to win the Belmont Godolphin.

Obviously they have big plans for this horse.

And you know, from a pedigree standpoint, this horse is a

monster. And you know, it has a big

future off the track as well already.

You know, the, you mentioned the the Godolphin angle and part of

this, and it's why when we heard they weren't going to Baltimore,

I was 0% surprised, right? I'm just that that part of that

story was not surprising to me. But frankly, I remember back

Auguste Rudin, who just ran in the Bears and how the Irish talk

about the bloodline there, what they're trying to build with

their bloodlines as far as those kinds of horses, what he means

as the next great horse. You get the sense with Godolphin

that after Into Mischief, they're looking for that type of

horse. And they do think that

sovereignty is it, right? Yeah.

They think he's the next in whatever they're personally

building in their thing. I don't want to compare them to

the entire breeding program, like Ireland or something, but

frankly, they might be just as big.

But frankly, just how much access they have to the top, you

know, brood mares in the world and those sorts of things, what

they'll be able to build with a horse like sovereignty, at least

what they're hoping they're going to be able to build.

That's what that's what they're thinking right now.

And that's why would Baltimore decision happen. 0% for me.

Yeah, no, you're absolutely right.

They have their eyes on a much bigger prize.

And it's not even just on the track.

It is building a whole new generation of bloodlines that

they're going to have. And and we all had talked about

how Godolphin was in search for that Kentucky Derby victory that

had kind of been so elusive for them.

And then finally getting it. Obviously they knew this was the

one that they had there in mind the entire time.

And listen, these things aren't by accident.

I remember talking to my colleague who I know you know as

well, Darwin Viscaya, last year at Saratoga.

And Darwin came up to me on a random Thursday in July and

said, Bill, Billy Mott's got this horse that junior's riding

in the morning. Sovereignty Junior says he's the

best horse he's ever been on. These things don't just happen

out of nowhere. And the Godolphin people have

known that this horse was a monster for a while.

And you know, I've been trying to play against him because he's

got that off the pace running style that like a little bit

like Sierra Leone that you're like, is he going to get home?

Is he going to get the trip? You know, etcetera.

And you know, I'll, I'll now I'm just, I'm, I'm giving up trying

to beat him, which is now exactly when you want to play

against him, because so once I on the bandwagon, then that's

the curse that kisses death. So.

Well, the hope was yeah, he gets the Saratoga graveyard of

favorites, you know, that kind of thing.

You know, maybe here in the Belmont.

I picked him anyway just because he's got that ass on him.

But you know, just but no, but I look the time off to all the

things. But anyways, I the real reason I

picked him Matthew, was we talked to Junior the Monday

before. Yeah.

And he was, he was, I'll just use the word he was arrogant.

Like he's we're winning this. Like we're, we're done here.

Like we're winning. If he shows up at all, we're

winning this race. And I was like, oh, and I got to

ask the follow up question. If this were at Belmont Park

going a mile and a half, he's like, oh, we'd win by 10.

Like he's just like we'd we'd win by 10.

And by the way, he's probably right.

Yeah, 'cause he. Journalism.

Wasn't making up ground and you know, he was going to keep

rolling and and he looked ears pricked up and ready to roll and

coming across the wire. So he was he's just such an

impressive horse. And one of the things that Mott

mentioned, which was surprising because you, again, you don't

hear Mott make many big time quotes.

You know, a lot of times when you talk to the media, very

grounded guy, very realistic. A lot of times when he talked

about how this horse came out of that Kentucky Derby, more

aggressive training, even better than he had.

I saw journalism the Tuesday, I want to say, before the Belmont

Stakes. And I thought, man, that's as

good a looking horse as I've seen.

I then saw Sovereignty train on or come into the paddock on

Wednesday. Sovereignty walked into the

paddock. His ears were pricked, his

muscles were rippling, and he just looked like he owned the

track and he just had that. You don't see many horses have

that. And he just had that aura about

him and it was, it is something special to see and I hope fans

can appreciate this because we don't see horses like this come

along. Not even every year.

Every five, every every 10 years.

Why Debarrio and Fierceness were the favorites in that Met Mile

before Raging Torrent got the lead kept the lead worried about

either of them. Not really.

I, I think it was kind of inevitable.

Fierceness might bounce a little bit off of that effort and the

alley Sheba coming off the bench and running that huge race.

And you know, that was also one of those where I think

fierceness too. I've always said he's a little

bit post dependent. I'd never like him when he's in

an inside post position. He likes to be outside of other

horses kind of in the clear. It was a short field, so it

wasn't like he had a bad trip by any stretch, but I just think he

needs the right type of set up sometimes.

Why Debarrio? I, I talked to the owners

actually right after the race. They said he just never took to

the track, you know, with the conditions that day and just

looked like a kind of A1 paced horse.

And they said we'll be back in the Whitney and, and seemed

very, very confident that the horse came out of the race fine.

So I, I think long term, I also think why Debarrio is better

going a little bit longer. I I don't think a mile is really

his best distance either. Now I'm with you.

I think they were hoping that like 1 1/2 turn thing there at

Saratoga would play to it and I just, it just wasn't enough.

And frankly, no, I don't. You would have to find a pretty

short list of horses that were gonna beat Raging Turin on that

day. I mean, that's the other part of

this too. I don't ever be very clear about

this. I'm not sure either of those

horses would beating Raging Turin in that race.

And I don't know that you could have brought over Niso said his

best or any of those kinds of, I mean in general, you would have

been hard pressed, maybe a mind frame, maybe, maybe mind frame

at his very, very best in a mile.

Yeah, no, I would agree Mind frame and Nicos are the two that

come to mind who could have done it maybe at a mile at you know,

again, if they fire their a race and and they they really get

their spot. You know the horse that I it was

funny because I had the right idea on the wrong horse.

I was against Pierce since I was against white Barrio.

I like just a touch quite a bit ran 3rd and you know, so it's

one of those things where you're, well, I beat the 2 short

prices and then just didn't have the right one up top.

But you know, right idea, wrong horse.

Yeah, no, I've never been there, Matthew.

I can't imagine how. That, Yeah.

No, I have no idea. I can't relate.

Yeah. Never something that ever

happens to be every single day. Well, by the way, today's

episode if you are heading to Foster Day here in Louisville,

presented by J Shepherd Cigars over there, 1429 Bardstown Rd.

in the Highlands. Easy stop on your way to the

track. And if you mention this show,

mention me. Whatever you got to do.

Free cigar with any purchase over there.

Our friend J Shepherd over there as well.

We'll get into our handicapping now.

Now take out rates at Churchill Downs.

If you are not familiar with our circuit here in Kentucky,

different track to track. The CDI tracks are different as

well. So you have to actually pay

attention place to place turfways, take outs different

than Churchill's, for example. But 15% on the pick fives here

are very playable, 17 1/2 on win play show and they are going to

have Matthew on Saturday and Sunday like they will the entire

Ellis Park meet a turf pick three, $3 minimum 15% take out.

I tend to like those bets, Matthew, but I tend not to play

them because I feel like only the very best handicappers are

in those pools. And so for repair beautiful

purposes, all the smartest people are playing those, you

know, that play because they all think like me.

They're like, oh, high, high minimum, low take out.

Oh, this is going to be great. And then all of the best people

are in there and I never get paid as much as I want to if I

actually do it. One of those things.

So, but that'll be happening this weekend.

That will start with Race 8, as will the Pick 6, the Tepin.

It is for a three-year old Phillies.

We're going a mile on the turf course there, which by the way I

have made fun of in the past. Not this year.

It's been spectacular this meet. They have done a great job with

the turf course here in Louisville at Churchill Downs.

And so actually, I'm sorry, I said the Tepin, we're starting

with Race 7. That's the fertile lead that

starts the Pick 6, the turf. The Pick 3 will start in the

next race. Return of Torpedo Anna here.

How are you handicapping that last race?

I was against her that race. I was actually single.

I was single to Raging Sea. And so I looked smart that day.

But you know, that was it was 1 where I just, I had a feeling

they were going to do exactly what they did, which was I had a

feeling Chad's horses were going to gang up on her and Randomizer

was going to make it tough on the front end and Raging Sea was

going to count and sweep up the mess on the back end.

And what I didn't expect is for her to turn in.

That bad of a performance and be just completely empty.

Although you look back at that race, man, she took quite a bump

going into that first turn. And I remember if you remember

back a couple years ago when fierceness ran in that holy

bull, he got sandwiched between two horses coming out of the

gate and kind of was empty coming from home.

And I think a lot of that was maybe got his wind knocked out

of him, just didn't really get never got comfortable.

Seemed like Anna might have had a similar situation there.

And you know, it's one of those it's so bad, you almost just

want to draw a line through it and go back to the drawing

board. But there is no denying the

numbers that she's gotten progressively slower since

running against the boys in that traverse last year when she

almost beat fierceness. So for me, the mile and an

eighth and all of that, it it's tough, especially it's such a

short price in the morning line at 3:00 to 5:00.

And you know, she's going to take a ton of money.

And you have a couple of horses that seem to be, you know, in

good form in terms of Jinjin as well as Royal Spa.

So for me, I'm going to try to beat her again and and try to

use those two horses to do it probably.

Is there any chance in this race just try to figure out what the

pace scenario is going to be? I imagine, frankly, in this one,

Ryan's going to try to get Brennan as Junior, of course, is

just going to try to get Thorpedo Anna to the front so

she doesn't have to deal with that stuff again.

Right, 100%. Yeah, I and I think that's what

he's going to do. Is there any chance there's a

horse like Taxed that goes with her is right there?

Is it a Jinjin like you mentioned?

Because I think a lot of people had questions after that double

dog dare. And I think it's legitimate

because that mile and a 16th at Keeneland is so different with

that first finish line and the mile and a 16th, for example, at

Churchill where you get the full stretch when you run those

races. But I thought she showed herself

well in that, in that, excuse me, in the Shawnee here at

Churchill Downs royal spot, picking up the pieces at the end

there. Are there horses that can go

with her? And do you agree that they're

just going to try to get her in front?

They're going to get her in front.

I I think that's the plan if you're Brian Hernandez junior,

just if when you have the best horse, just keep the horse out

of trouble that that's the, you know, name of the game.

So I think that's the plan. I do think a horse like Jinjin

can go with her to some extent, especially drawing to her

outside. And then a horse like royal

spawn, that horse has shown good speed going a mile before and

that inside rail draw. You figure there's going to be

some intentionality there to get out on the front end.

So you know, one of the things that Richie Migliore, who's one

of our great analysts up here at Naira always talks to me about

it is he goes in short fields. That's when favorites get in the

most trouble. He goes because everybody knows

who's the favorite and everybody just zeroes in on that horse and

makes it as tough on them as possible.

And I could see Royal Spa and Jinjin trying to make it tough

for Thorpedo to get out there on the front end.

And maybe Brian uses a little bit more of her early than and

then he wants to. And you have a horse like Jinjin

or Royal Spa kind of pressing her the entire way, you know,

And again, the mile and the 8th, you know, the fact that she came

up empty at a mile and a 16th last time.

Now we're going a mile and an eighth again.

I just think I find myself rooting for her.

But as a player, I I'm going to be playing against her, I think

in this spot. OK, there you go.

He's Matthew DeSantis. He's with Naira Bets.

And of course, I'm Lou Rabo. This is the Horse Racing Happy

Hour. Thanks for hanging out with us.

We had to race 8 now at Churchill Downs.

I should have my overlays. You know what I do?

I do these very nice scrolling banners for my other shows and

then I get lazy when I do the horse racing happy Hour, which

is unacceptable. If Barry Spears were on here,

I'd be serious. But Matthew's on here so I'm not

being. Serious.

I'm not ridiculous. We're going a mile on the turf

and race 8 for three-year old Phillies.

It's called the TEP and it's a quarter million bucks on the

line as well. Fun field in here, Matthew.

I thought this was a really, really cool 1.

You get lush lips out of that Edgewood Vixen, of course, also

ran in the Edgewood, ran third. I wanted to ask, essentially,

there's no nitrogen. Do we just run back the Edgewood

here? You know, in some ways I think

so. And I think the The thing is,

there's a fair amount, there could be a fair amount of pace

in this race with regards to Lush Lips.

And you have a horse like 9th Island on the outside who's

going to want to go pretty forward as well.

And even something stronger is a horse that's stretching out from

sprinting last time. And so a horse like Lush Lips,

it's interesting. I think when she's at her best

is when she's up on the front end.

Now she showed last time she can pass horses coming from off the

pace and that Edgewood, which is good.

But because of that, I really kind of like the other Cassie

horse Vixen, who I always feel is just in the shadow of her

stable all the time and if not for her, might have had a couple

more wins. And so I think just you know,

it's splitting hairs in terms of nine to five on lush lips, 2 to

one on vixen in the morning line.

But I'll I'll lean towards the other Cassie runner in this one.

But I do think the top two from the Edgewood that are running

back here are kind of clearly the top 2 in this race.

Yeah, it's hard to to find too many other places to go.

I think. For example, Love You Anyway is

5 to 1 because Luis Saez is aboard, right?

Like I think he's fine to 1:00 because of who he is and how

well he's been riding. And by the way, I'm not mad at

that. I, I, I get it.

He's he's won races at Churchill this meet that aren't just okay,

Louis was on the best horse and he won.

No, no, no, no. Louis was on the best horse for

so many of these wins, frankly, and is already 44 wins on this.

He and Jose Ortiz certainly going for the riding title this

spring. There something I'm gonna ask

you about, and it's gonna be something that we ask about in

other races as well. Some of these California

shippers. So favor to you on the outside.

Antonio Frazu just won the riding title at Santa Anita,

comes to Louisville 4 the day Phil d'amato's got a bunch.

He's got a string out here in Kentucky.

Now. We see this all the time in

California where these horses go 6 furlongs and then suddenly

they turn into milers on the and they do it at like $1.34 at

Santa Anita because apparently the grass is made of lightning.

I had no idea but and I'm not making up any of that

especially. No, you're not so.

Yeah, but how do we handicap a horse like that?

Because this is an angle, frankly.

Sprints around 2, sprints around, especially 20%.

They do this all the time in California.

Could that be the long shot here?

Well, it's interesting. That's the worst.

I actually have second OK too. So I think that horse has a real

shot in this race. And it's interesting cuz

normally it's an angle I play against and the angle I play

against is just West Coast turf horses coming to the Midwest and

the East. And it's just cuz, like you

said, the turf courses out there are just different.

And maybe you could compare it to Gulfstream Park in terms of

very similar sort of a setup. But when they come to Saratoga,

when they come to the old Belmont Park, when they come to

Aqueduct, when they come to Churchill and Keeneland, it's

just a deeper turf course. It's a thicker turf course.

You can't go 23 and 46 and, and expect to finish as strong as

they do. And stretching out from six

furlongs isn't going to work when you have these horses with

this massive turn of foot that start coming at you.

And so I just, I, I think she's real live in this particular

spot. I really like her, but I am a

little cautious playing her up top.

But I think I had a little bit of a price.

She's she's easily the most interesting alternative I think

to the top 2. Filled a Model 3 for 12 this

meeting at Churchill Downs with seven of his horses hitting the

board in those races. We moved to Race 9.

This is the start of the late pick four there again, that was

the start of the late, excuse me, of the turf Pick 3IN Race 8.

We'll do the late pick 4 here. Pretty playable, 22% take out on

the pick four. You're better off playing the

pick 5 for sure. The Kelly's Landing 6 1/2

furlongs here. It is a grade three $250,000 in

the Kitty in this one. Man Booth is clearly the class

to me. Matthew in this race.

We watched him get it done at Pimlico.

Steve Asmussen's numbers are down at Churchill Downs, and I

don't mind saying that once in a while nepotism gets in the way.

And I think there's a bit of Asmussen Asmussen combinations

that are not working at a super high level right now at

Churchill Downs. They worked last year and I

think they do work in some spots, but we're talking about a

grade 3 here. Certainly it's a Sprint.

We don't have to do like a mile and 1/2 on the turf or anything.

And there's a lot of timing issues and whatever else is the

class. Is he worth singling?

What are you thinking? He is the class.

He reminds me a little bit of a horse like sovereignty for me, a

horse like in Italian, if you remember her from a couple of

years ago, horses that I try to beat all the time and then I

just give up and I all right, fine, you know, just because I

was convinced I was going to miss horse.

A little submission I elbow from our guy boots the booth elbow.

That's exactly the Booth Elbow. Yeah.

I mean, I was so against him and I was all over epic ride in that

last race and just thought that, you know, he'd get pressed a

little bit more for fractions and then he got loose in the

lead and it's just same song, second verse.

And it it it's tough. I mean, I I want to like a horse

like Doctor Venkman quite a bit for Mark Martin, Antonio Freizu.

That's the kind of obvious alternative.

And that's the horse I've always liked a lot out in the West

Coast going back to, you know, even that, you know, San Diego

Handicap, you know, going out there there in the tropical

blend from a couple years ago, you know, is second back from

the layoff lost in ISO. So I don't think there's any

harm in saying that that was a good loss, especially coming off

that long of a layoff. And I, I think if you're going

to try to beat Booth, it's going to be with him.

I, I don't really see not a lot of create, create other creative

ways to go. But I I do think I agree with

everything you said leading up to this race in terms of the,

you know, the the angles that are just not really playing off

for Asmussen right now. And, you know, Eric does seem to

have a good handle on this horse in particular.

And he kind of made pretty straightforward just get to the

front and go and and he knows how to do that with him.

And you know, it makes him dangerous in this race.

And, you know, the question is, can a horse like the four roll

on Big Joe really apply pressure?

Can auto the conquer apply a pressure?

And will they, you know, will they kind of fall on their

swords to some extent? And will they kind of go and

press this horse and maybe lose the battle and lose the war as

well, but but soften up booth enough for a horse coming from

off the pace to be able to win. And I think that's always the

the calculation that jockeys and trainers are making of like how

much we use up our horse to beat the favorite if we know we're

not even going to be the ones who ultimately benefit from

that. So, you know, or are we going to

get some more timid rides of people just kind of tracking off

a booth, in which case it's over?

I tend to think of jockeys and their influence on a race, like

I think of a manager in Major League Baseball over an entire

season, which is in 162 games, a manager might be worth 6-7 wins,

something like that. Fair with jockeys.

I, and I'm getting at this because of Durante on the

outside. And yes, I'm saying Durante

because we're going back to Del Mar for the Breeders Cup this

year. Jose Ortiz got them out last

time for David Jacobson, and this horse was just a little bit

different. Broke unbelievably quickly out

of the gate in that one. And the the the splits on that

race are absolutely absurd. But he was part of all the race,

all the things. Did that just work out where he

was in your mind at least? It was just so fast he was able

to pick up those pieces and get away with it.

Or is this a repeatable kind of performance?

I lean toward the latter, frankly.

So my concern is whether David Jacobson horses have repeatable

efforts and you know, that's always been an issue with him is

can his horses stack up 3-4 really good wins in a row now

we've seen it do it with a horse like Banishing who who really, I

was kind of always a little hesitant to support and that

horse kept getting better and better and better until that

last time out. But I mean, that horse really

strung together, you know, 567 really good starts.

So he's just a horse that has a hard, I have a hard time kind of

grappling with because if you look at the speed figures,

they're still pretty light compared to the rest of the

field. You know, he only got an 88 for

that Aristides. And so you look at Doctor

Venkman, you look at the booth, you look at Roland, Big Joe,

they all got bigger numbers than that.

And you go, you know, can you get faster off of that?

I do think drawing to the outside, having Jose up again,

all positives for sure, especially a little bit of a

price at 8:00 to 1:00. What do you think of like an out

of the Conqueror? Hasn't been great the last two

times but does like Churchill Downs gets Flavi and Pratt in

this spot. Any shot for him?

15 to one for Steve Asmussen. It's a horse that I always like

going back to that springboard mile.

I thought that was just such a gutsy effort going back to that,

you know, that race. That was a long time ago now.

But I always thought, man, when they cut this horse back to

sprinting, he's going to be real dangerous and just hasn't really

quite worked out the way that I had hoped.

And you know, he's a big price, obviously.

I think he's a horse again. Could sit a decent trip, maybe

sitting just off the pace of Booth and you know, maybe pick

up some pieces again. Maybe you enrich your vertical

wagers a little bit, throw them in some exactos and tries at a

big price. Race 10 starts the late Pick 3

here. Wise Dan.

It's a Grade 2 mile and a 16th on the turf course for four and

up. We're still running FOUR and UPS

here in Kentucky, in case you were wondering.

Good for you guys, you know. I think we're the last place.

How about that? We're we're holding back the

three-year olds. How's that grade two half

billion bucks here, Matthew? Are we potentially overlooking

Fort Washington is the first question I have in here.

He'll break from the 8 here. Junior Alvarado in for Saturday

to ride here. This is a horse that won the

Canadians hurt for the dinner party. back-to-back over

frankly. Very different conditions in

South Florida and then in Baltimore.

We're looking at Miami type conditions here for Saturday.

Very, very hot thunderstorms, random pop up showers.

Any chance Fort Washington is actually the the six to one got

to include in this race? Yes, is the short answer to that

question. Listen, if I ever, if you ever

see me on the side of the road and I've hit hard times, it's

because I've been on too many Sugar Mcgahee horses on the

turf. I will always bet Sugar on the

turf, especially going along on the turf.

I love this horse. I I had him last time out in

that dinner party. I just it was all over this

horse. He is, he's got a big late kick

and I think maybe you question whether or not he gets the pace

to run into in this race. You know, that might be a little

bit of the question of whether or not a horse might be able to

control things up front and maybe not give him the

conditions that he would like in terms of closing into it.

But man, it's tough. I I like that he's so consistent

too. He just turns in every effort to

a strong one. And you know, honestly, those

last couple of races are more than good enough to win here.

I think it's 6 to 1. And when you're playing, if

you're playing horizontally, in terms of those, pick five, pick

6, he says. He's a must and glue for me.

All right, so right next to him is brilliant birdie, who I think

has a chance to inherit the lead in this one was on the lead for

all of the Arlington until the very last moment when Mercante

overtook there. By the way, we're seeing the in

this part of the country, at least not a name I'm sure on the

East Coast, West Coast, whatever that people know terribly well

did have amount for Whit Beckman in the Derby this year.

But Joe Ramos, who is the leading rider currently at

Horseshoe Indianapolis of all things has been riding down here

in some interesting spots as well has been riding Merconti

for Brian Nippenburg here and I it's interesting to watch Joe he

he was also up there for the Ohio Derby day and those kinds

of things. We're seeing him get more of

these sorts of spots Matthew and obviously I'll be up there for

Indiana Derby week next week. I, I'm interested in him and he

is really he and Mercanti. The timing and everything else

just seems to work really, really well.

But brilliant birdie I think might inherit the lead.

Do you expect Mercanti and, and A and a brilliant birdie to be

on the front? And then a horse like, you know,

Fort Washington who likes to close from a bit back is just

going to have to do that even in a mile, mile, mile on 16th.

Yeah, I think so. I mean, that's when I look at

kind of how the race shape plays out.

I mean, that certainly seems to be the case that those two are

going to be up there on the front end dictating terms and

and, you know, maybe there's another, you know, runner who

goes up there up on the front end, but I could see those two

battling things out. It's so interesting about Bernie

Birdie because the wins that this one's had are coming from

off the pace. But like you said, kind of

inherited the lead last time and ran really well.

Didn't get lost in the lead or anything like that.

Just got overtaken by Mercante and I know I noted that Joe

Ramos change as well that when this when Ramos took over this

horse, they just seemed to really have a good connection.

Won three out of four and the one loss was by less than a

length. And so this is a horse that I

think maybe a surprise, some people kind of come out of

nowhere a little bit. I mean, again, Brian Nippenberg,

not exactly a household name. And so this is 1 where, you

know, you expect, well, Cherie Devoe and Shook Mcgahee and you

know, the other big names in the spot.

And then then you got Nippenberg and Ramos coming in with a with

a horse like Marcante. And you know, listen, he hasn't

really done much wrong. I mean, I think the the only

concern is the price. I mean, if if you just go, do I

really want to take 5 to 2 on a horse like this?

Or do I want to take Brilliant Birdie at 3:00 to 1:00?

Or Fort Washington at six to one?

Or even a horse? I that I also like that I feel

like I've been chasing for a while.

Laganos at 6:00 to 1:00. I agree, of course.

That I've always been high on. Those are, I think, better value

plays from a standpoint of percentage odds of winning the

race. Yeah, Laganos made me look

really smart in the Commonwealth in November, like really smart.

That horse came in O for 9:00. For the year and.

I was like, yeah, but, but but that Bryant station, it was such

a good race at Keela. Did you see how how he galloped

out? It's gonna happen.

And I remember Tony Kaylo being like, yeah, sure, buddy.

He's yeah, there he goes there, there he goes.

He's so. Yeah, and and listen, you know

you. Look, never gonna miss the

board. That's really the thing about

Laganos. Like just throw them in your

exact, throw them in your tries, Just do it.

And frankly, in route turf races, I, I tend to bet those

horses, Matthew, that I know are going to be there at the end.

Well, exactly. I mean, that's why I think of

Fort Washington. That's why I think of Laganos in

61. Doesn't make a lot of sense

because you know they're going to be there.

They don't turn in bad efforts. And if things break their way

and they get the right trip and maybe the fractions get a little

too fast up front, then suddenly, yeah, you're talking

about a horse that can bring home, you know, and get home at

a little bit of a decent price. And when you're talking about a

sequence where maybe some favorites do pretty well,

getting a 5 to 1 six to one winner is really all you need to

really make the sequence pretty profitable.

No, that's exactly right. We moved to the late double.

It starts with a race called the Stephen Foster.

It's a grade one. Of course, was not always a

grade one, but I'm glad that it's back to that level, $1

million on the line here. And Matthew, the last race was

very American level grade 2 turf race.

I'm not hating on it at all. It was very grade 2, very though

things. This is a grade one plus man for

the time of year for all of the things this is this is the kind

of race, frankly, those of us who who love this crazy thing

called horse racing and everything else in this country

especially, we've been begging for this, what we used to call

the older dirt Haiti cap division.

We've been begging for this to get races like this man and

we're getting them over and over this year.

I, I'm, I'm not even gonna call it getting spoiled because

frankly, we've put in the work for the last 10 years of not

getting these. Races and so.

Again, so we're going to play our game that we always play on

this show, the buy or sell, can he win or not?

And it's a Stephen Foster theme. If you did not know, Stephen

Foster of course, wrote My Old Kentucky Home, for which of

course they named this race after him.

And we sing that. Of course, before the Derby.

He also wrote Oh Susanna and Camp Town races, and by the way,

these are 100 and like 70 year old songs that all of us still

know. All the words too.

Bangers, bangers a good word. I agree.

All right, so it camped out races.

Of course, it's about wagering. So what does he encourage the

crowd to do? Bet the Bay.

OK, so if we like the horse today, we're going to bet the

Bay. And if he can't win today, it's

a bobtail nag, all right? So those are all options.

Today are Bet the Bay or Bobtail Nag Louis Riveau thinking too

much about these things. We're going a mile and an eighth

on the dirt at Churchill Downs. 1,000,000 bucks on the line, a

grade one. I got to talk to Brooke Smith on

Monday, who is the owner of Sierra Leone.

I don't know what they're doing with this horse and I'm not sure

he does either. I'm just kidding.

Brooke, Hi. It's nice to see you, but he is

back in this field as as the Breeders Cup.

The the reigning Breeders' Cup Classic winner mind frame

obviously in here coming off back-to-back winds and graded

stakes end the pad day mile and then in the Churchill Downs, of

course, excuse the great, the ghost St.

Park mile, not the pad day Mile, Ghost St.

Park mile and then of course, the Churchill Downs.

A Grade 1 here over 7 furlongs. We get Skippy long stocking in

here coming out of the gold great, the Gold Cup, a grade 2

that he won. Mystic Dan wins last time out of

the blame the prep for this race.

He's the Derby winner from last year moves him to three for four

lifetime at the track. And oh, oh, by the way, hit

shows here and all he did was win the Dubai World Cup.

So let's meet the field 1 by 1. When we go to 1st mission who I

didn't even mention on the inside, comes in with A1O. 9

biker in this last. Race.

Oh what a grade one let's go. Oh my God I'm so excited we

actually got a Grade 1 here. First mission, bet the Bay or a

bot tailed egg. I think he's a bet to pay.

I like this horse a lot. I think he is, you know, you

could look at it maybe as a Skippy long stocking light in

terms of, you know, when he's gone up against grade one

company, it's he's always come up short, but he's starting to

collect these grade two, grade 3 victories kind of up and down.

But I think he's just gotten better as a 5 year old, quite

frankly. And I think, you know, he's just

a horse that's always been so lightly raced and lightly

managed. I like him though.

I think he sits the perfect trip.

I think he's going to sit behind the pace in this one and he's

going to have the rail and I think he's absolutely a four to

one, a very playable horse in this spot, a very winnable race.

My biggest concern is if you look the last two times he ran a

career best buyer speed figure, there was a big drop off in that

next race. So that is something to keep in

mind after that huge one O 9 in that Oklahoma handicap.

But I think he sets the trip. I think he's got the talent,

he's obviously got the connections and I think it's

4:00 to 1:00. It's worth a shot, certainly, to

bet the pay. I'm a bet the Bay on him as

well. And, and here's one of the

angles that I was worried about with him was we have seen horses

come up with good performances at Oaklawn that have not

translated to Churchill this year.

I'm not worried about that with him.

He's got a ton of experience here.

His works here have been totally fine.

He's obviously got a very comfortable home in the in the

Cox barn here. And so I'm very much not worried

about that part. It's more of what you just

described. We're coming off of about a

month and a half, you know, a little over actually a little

over two months now than I'm looking at my calendar properly

here. Uptime off for him.

That's not always the best angle for him.

But to be fair to him, usually he comes back in a massive spot

World Cup or they're trying to straight away in the Razorback

against a horse like Alexander Helios or a banishing or what

have you. It's it's usually that kind of

spot. But I'm with you.

He's one of the few horses here where the rail just doesn't

bother me because, like you said, as long as he gets it

doesn't fall out of the gate and he's able to stop and be in

position. They'll they'll work out the

trip later in the race. My frame comes in at 7:00 to

2:00. What a great price that would

be. But to be fair, at the distance

he is over. Did run a one-on-one in the

Haskell last year over the mile and an eighth was in the stretch

run Dornick last year. No one was out stretch running

that horse last year. It just was what it was.

Comes in like I said, off of back-to-back grade 2 and grade

one wins here. We bet the Bay.

Or is he about to tell back? He is a Bethe Bay and my top

pick actually in this race. He is a horse that I just have

fallen in love with really more and more.

I've watched him over the last couple of months and you don't

see horses like this anymore. Louis that can win at 7, they

can win at 8, they can win 8 1/2, they can win at 9:00.

They I mean, if it wasn't for Dornick, he'd have a win at 9

prolongs and 10 prolongs. You know, he was he's never

finished out of the exacta. I still don't know what his best

distance is. That's the crazy part.

And I think I think a mile, an eighth might be his best

distance and he showed last time that ability to really come from

off the pace and that Churchill Downs was such a thrilling race.

The other thing to keep in mind, Nicos came out of that race, ran

a 99, came back to Ronald 108 and then you see Bucum Dano

came, ran a 98, came out of that race to run A1O2, winning the

true North So that those buyers are getting inching upwards and

northwards for horses coming out of that race.

I think that's a positive mind frame just for me.

I think this is the coming out party nationally that maybe he's

been waiting for a little bit in terms of that older handicapped

division. You know, obviously winning that

Churchill down Sprint, big deal. But I think this is a race that

could set him up for a really big summer obviously up here in

Saratoga. And then the Breeders got beyond

that. If someone wanted to make the

case that the most consequential race to this point of the year

is that Churchill Downs, I would listen to them.

It would put the absolute nail in that conversation.

If mine frame means it would, it would end the conversation

altogether. The best gathering of horses

this year would have been in the Churchill Downs.

That would be a question at this point.

I'm with you. We're getting back to whatever

Todd Pletcher was before like a two year low in these kinds of

races where he used to just be able to ship horses and it was

like, oh, Todd's here, OK. They're they're just get the

trophy ready like it used to be, you know, when he came,

honestly, he came to Churchill with horses like this.

Sorry, Brad, sorry everybody else here.

Like it doesn't matter. I'm gonna bet the pay on this

one as well. He's not my top selection here.

But I do agree with you that it is fascinating that he's this

good Matthew and we're not quite sure what what all he can be big

best at. I should say that we know what

he can do, which is everything right?

And frankly, if you look at these performances we talked

about that Belmont at 10 furlongs lost by 1/2 length.

I think we we think of like Dornik is like kicking away from

him in that race. They just happen to be so far

apart from each other on that Saratoga surface that we forget

that that was actually like right there and we and.

We also forget that was his third race and he was brain as

all get out in the stretch and if I if dad didn't startle him

by going to the left-handed whip, he probably would have won

that race potentially. I mean, maybe nobody out

finished his dormant, but you really saw he was so green and

gave up so much ground going drifting further and further out

in the stretch run that day. I, you know, just a supremely

talented horse and one where I kind of almost throw the speed

figures out because when your eye sees it, you just go, yeah,

that horse has it. Here we go, we move on in the

field. The Skippy long stocking 33rd

race of his career will be the Stephen Foster on Saturday.

As far as I can remember, he has never won a grade one but does

have multiple wins in graded stakes.

Almost picked off the Woodward in the mud last year at

Aqueduct. Of course wins the challenger at

Tampa last year or this year, excuse me as well.

And of course went out won the Gold Cup out West.

He's very difficult for me to handicap Matthew.

He reminds me frankly and and I, I'm starting to love this about

Saffy. He's turning into a little bit

of a Kenny Mcpeek with just spectacular chest hair and that

he's just willing to show up with these horses.

Man, I love this. I love that Skippy's in this

race because I'm I'm going to go ahead.

I'm going to call him Bob Tailnag here in this in this

company, but he's not that he isn't.

And I expect him to get a good check on Saturday.

I expect an honest effort from him and frankly, that's why this

division is so good, because in past years he'd be the favorite

in this race. He would be.

Two years ago he would have been the favorite in this race.

And so it's good to, it's good to have a field deep enough for

me that I could call Skippy, who has 11 freaking career wins and

a bunch of great at stakes, A bobtail nag in this kind of

field because it's so grade Oney.

Where'd you land on Skippy? Bobtail nag and and that kills

me about it too, because I'm just like you.

I mean, this is anybody who listens to any of my stuff on

our bets knows I love this horse.

I this is, this is a horse that you used to have a lot of, you

know, are they running great? We'll show up.

We'll, we'll throw our name in the hat and see what happens.

And 11 career wins, $37,000 purchase who has won $3.6

million. Not a bad return on investment.

And this is the sort of argument you, you see for running horses

and just can't keep running them.

They and and skipping just keeps getting better and keeps running

well, and I don't think he's ever going to be that Grade 1

winner I, which is too bad because I would love to see him

get that added to his resume at the end of the day.

But you're right. He just man, he cashes checks.

He's honestly the horse. I think Midnight Bourbon would

have been a better version of him maybe, but he reminds me a

lot of the late Midnight Bourbon who was just always 2nd and 3rd

and just always picking up checks and just always running

honest every time. And, and yeah, but Skippy a

great horse and I think he's going to set up probably a

pretty nice trip. He could be controlling speed

actually up up on the front early and you know, but I just,

I don't think he's quite good enough.

And this group is just, I think, so talented that he's just a

little bit of a bobtail nag. Yeah, it's he's a third, first,

third first so far this year. I would not be surprised to see

him in 3rd place again in this race.

Oh. I don't want one another.

Yep, Sierra Leone comes in in the four hole here.

Second race this year after the New Orleans Classic and frankly

A disappointing New Orleans classic.

Touch upon A Star gets the win down there.

He's behind Hall of Fame as well.

A bunch of time off. We're not used to this kind of

work. Tab for him taking this amount

of time off in his career. Matthew, how do you handicap him

here? Is he a bet that they are a

bobtail nag? Well, as a top pick, I already

said I'm going with mind frame. So on a certain level he's a

bobtail nag. But for me and for if you're

playing horizontally, I'm going to probably hedge a little bit

and say bet the Bay. He's a tough horse to handicap.

I agree. Because you go, is he pace

dependent and you go, well you look at that Risen * and he ran

behind 114 and change fractions and he closed like a freight

train at fairgrounds. Well, yeah, but here's the

thing, he's not running against Honor Marie and Resilience and

Track Phantom anymore. This is Deeper Waters.

So you look at the other two grade ones, he got the Bluegrass

and the and the Breeders Cup Classic.

They ran almost a identical 6 furlong fractions in those two

races, 110 and four basically. Is he going to get 110 and four?

I don't think he will. So, you know, there's a level of

me where it goes. Maybe he's a little pace

dependent. There was always the buzz that

he just didn't like Saratoga, that he didn't like the surface

up there. Chad had made reference to that,

that he just, you know, it was a little 2 speed favoring.

He didn't really take the track as well.

I think it was particularly notable in the Travers where

Torpedo Anna is out finishing Sierra Leone in that race to

actually track down fierceness, while Sierra Leone's kind of

leveling out a little bit in the stretch.

Then he goes to the Breeders Cup Classic and I joke Chad Brown

should buy Derma Sodagake and just take those two around the

country together because Derma, I hope you got a piece of that

winner's check because he absolutely helped Sierra Leone

win that day when you go that fast up.

Front in the Breeders Cup Classic and you, you set it.

Up it's over and Pierce just ran the best race and Sierra Leone

won and it's one of those things where you know, I I.

So it's hard for me to judge. What I will say is a lot of

times when I'm handicapping turf races and I see a deep closer

coming off a long layoff, I always go, well, you know,

sometimes I'm always hesitant to bet deep closers off long

layoffs if that kick isn't necessarily there that first

start back after a long layoff. But we still rarely see that

same running style and dirt male male dirt route races.

And I just didn't apply that really that same kind of logic.

And I wonder maybe he just needed one under the belt.

Chad's gotten the screws tighten a little bit more.

I wouldn't shock me if he ran big, but I'm going to

tentatively try to play against him.

But I think in the pick five sequence I'll probably just play

go too deep with him in mind frame.

I want to say this, I'm a little surprised to see the work tab is

entirely on Long Island. I know this.

Yeah. OK, You you're not surprised

they didn't ship him to Churchill for even 11 work?

That doesn't shock me with Chad necessarily.

And the horse seems to really like Belmont and working out

there. So I, I think he's, he's always

been a temperamental horse and he likes things the way he likes

things and you just kind of let it go.

I think he wins on Saturday. How do you do wins on Saturday?

He's never missed the board at this distance.

The 3rd place was absolutely his worst race maybe in his career.

And I just I, I watched his dad grow up.

I watched I biggest win bet I've ever placed was on a one to two

gun runner in this race and he won by 1000 is 1 of and and so

no, I I expect him to grow up here and I expect him to win

here and Sierra Leone will be back and we'll all go yay.

This division's awesome. So there you go on that one.

Mystic Dan, the Derby winner is in here in the five hole, 3:00

to 1:00 in the morning line. I do not think he'll be 3 to 1

by the time we get to post. I think you'll get much better

money on him than that number. But an interesting show because

he was great in the blame at Matthew.

I was there or no that one. I was not there for I had the

flu. But no, he was spectacular in

the blame and just a a a fun, fun moment here in Louisville

for that horse to get back to the winner's circle.

Everybody get to see the Derby winner in the winner's circle

across the track from the the Derby winner's circle here.

Bet the Bay. Or is this one about Tailnag?

Bob Tailnag for me on Mystic Dan, I know and he's just

listen, the best horse he beat last time was Antiquarian, who

I'm a huge fan of by the way. I'm like maybe the president of

the Antiquarian fan club. I love that freaking horse and

have for a long time since back before the Louisiana dirty where

he broke through the starting gate.

I loved that horse for a while and but the reality is that's

the best horse he beat and this is much deeper waters.

One thing I will say, here's a little trivia for you and I have

to shout out my colleague Kaylee Shapiro, who pointed this out

first time since 1992 that the top 2 finishers in the Kentucky

Derby are facing off as 4 year olds The subsequent year.

The last time it happened, Nick Zito trained Strike the Gold and

best pal in the Pimlico special. So it's been a minute and to

your. Best pal win the Pimlico

Special. Yeah.

And no, strike the gold one, yeah.

Hold again. OK.

All right. Yeah.

Yeah, striking 1 so. But yeah, so it's great to see

these two horses come back to the sight of their amazing

finish to layout last year. And I just think he's maybe a

little in over his head at this in this race and a ton of

respect and thrilled that he won because the ongoing bit that I

had about how many days it was since the Kentucky Derby winner

won a subsequent race now is at 0 again.

So it is, you know, it was 12155 days.

And he's the one who broke the streak.

And six days later, Sovereignty did it.

And so, you know, hey, it's pretty and not bad.

So. Mystic Dan, I have a ton of

respect for Kenny. I love the new tattoo but I'm

going to be playing against him as a Bob Tail nag here.

I will say not give my opinion on the tattoo.

I'm going Bob tail nag here. I remember talking with Lance

Gazaway after the race, who's the owner of Mystic Dan and just

asking him, man, the mile and an eighth thing.

Did you think this was going to happen?

And he said that he had personally gone to Kenny and

said, Are you sure he's a mile and an eighth.

He really feels like a miler da da da.

He said no, no, no, no. He just needs, he needs to get

back, give him some time. They ran him in that Pegasus.

He was nowhere to be found. That was after having the van

out for the Malibu, all that stuff.

So I'm taking December and January with this horse,

Matthew, and I'm completely discarding it.

As far as looking at his year, I think his better race was

actually in the Lake of Cheetah against Saudi Crown in that mile

where he had to be on his game. He's off the bench four months

in, that one shows up like a bat out of heck, comes up here and

wins. Weirder things have happened

than Mystic Dan winning the Stephen Foster on Saturday.

I just want to say that, But I'm with you.

I, I think the top three in this race are just a step better than

he is. I just think they are.

And so that's where we are in Race 11.

We're going through the Steven Foster field.

We are playing a spirited game of Bet the Bay or a bobtail nag

with our guy Matthew DeSantis from Naira Bets.

Hit Show comes in and that this is this is where I am not good

at handicapping and this is when horses come back from the

Arabian Peninsula, whether they've had success or not.

I'm used to that Arabian Peninsula bounce and then we get

Raging Torrent. We get these other horses that

seem to just come back. No big deal.

Hit Show coming out of a win in the Dubai World Cup.

Florence Giroux keeps them out here for Brad Cox, Bet the Bay

or Bob Taildeck. He's Bobtail nagged for me and

of course, I always liked a lot and honestly reminded me a

little bit again of like a skippy long stocking type until

that last race. I just I never thought he'd get

that kind of grade one to some extent and finally got it in

such a huge effort. But for me, that's that's The

thing is that effort almost felt anomalous.

It felt like that's not really the type of horse that he

normally is. And so I do worry about that

bounce coming back. You mentioned, though, Raging

Torrent a horse a couple years ago, Casa Creed used to do this,

you know, come back from overseas and run huge.

So you can I absolutely see it. I do think it's interesting.

Casa was a sprinter, raging Tory, Lance and Miller.

I do think going a little bit longer takes a little bit more

out of you and I just I worry about that.

And these are deep waters. I mean these this is not just,

you know, him coming back and you know, and no disrespect,

because I know they just started for entries, you know, like

Saudi crown when he came back and ran in that what RA Cowboy

Jones, you know, at Ellis Park. And it's like this is a tough

landing spot for a horse like hit show to do it off the bench.

I mean, he looks great. I just saw him emphatic

schooling this morning, but still for me in this field, he's

a bobtail nag. I want to be very clear, the

opinions about the Cowboy Jones are Matthews and Matthews only

one. Of my favorite.

Of any instincts, right so you can go ahead and close your

mouth right now I'm talking but the the.

You shut your mouth and you're talking to me.

Your mouth, you're talking to me.

We will have Ellis Park preview hour on Rabo and Co this coming

Wednesday. star-studded. By the way, we've already

confirmed our first interview will be Tyler Gottfalon coming

back off the bench. How about that?

So that's spectacular. Happy to see.

Very, very happy to hear from Tyler and and that was one of

those man, I I don't even know what to send the guy.

I don't even I legitimately Matthew, I had no idea what to

say to Tyler because it was so the timing could not.

I mean, I can't I cannot imagine being in those shoes.

You you have a sense of who your Derby mount's going to be in all

the things and it just this sport, man.

This sport is really good to you.

I'm going to say bet the Bay on him, man.

And I raging torrents doing to me.

But you know what really did it to me is the work the other day

this past weekend. I got the video of the work.

He looks really comfortable and ready to go with Churchill Downs

this weekend. I'm going to be hoping that that

that 59 and change work that he just threw in is actually a

harbinger of how well he's going to run this weekend.

And so I will run with Hit Show as a bet.

The Bay in this spot, believe it or not, ahead of Mystic Dam,

which hurts my soul. All right, so let's get into

Ashcroft. We'll break from the outside.

We see the Lucas name next to him.

Do you happen to have a Wayne Lucas story by chance?

Did you get to spend much time with the coach?

I never got to spend much time with him.

My only story, though, was last year I was at the Pennsylvania

Derby 4 sees the greatest victory and I the memory that I

have of just. First of all, you have to

understand I'm 44. We're about, we're.

Close to the same age. Growing up, there were three men

that defined the Triple Crown. It was the coach, Bob Baffert

and Nick Zito. And I'm fortunate enough to have

gotten to meet, you know, Nick quite a bit over the last couple

of months. Got to meet Bob Baffert recently

and that was a great interaction and coach, I remember being just

so starstruck standing in the paddock probably about 6 feet

away from him and just being like there's the coach there he

is and just being like there's the legend.

And and I just remember that was of course when sees the grey

one, it was my racehorse. There were so many owners that

they couldn't fit in the winner's circle at parks, which

is a big winner's circle. It's it's three times the size

of aqueducts, that's for sure. And so it's a huge winner's

circle and they had to go out onto the track to take the

winning photo because there were so many people.

And there was the coach with with you know, with with sees

the Grey. And it was just that was AI was

so glad to see that. And I was also so happy to see

his late career renaissance because it exposed so many new

fans to this great human being and this great trainer who

really revolutionized our sport in a way that maybe he would

have been more forgotten if he hadn't had horses like Secret

Oath and Sees the Grey An American Prom.

Listen it. Was great to, it was amazing to

see him and, and I know when I was down at Churchill, there was

a great moment early in the morning where he and Billy Mott

were sitting on the saddle next to each other watching the

morning works. And it was.

That was a really special moment.

Yeah, we get spoiled down here for sure.

And that that you know that Lucas Gap and everything that we

have down here at Churchill Downs, the other.

You know, Basnickel taking over it, it's fascinating to watch.

And now unfortunately, we've got two of these, Matthew up north,

your place in the Clemal stable there.

Obviously with Miguel taking over, we're seeing these

succession plans. It's something I pointed out on

Monday on the show was it's so interesting when these things

happen and the plans are so obvious and they are seamless.

Everybody's ready to go on the next stage of these of these,

you know, how these barns are going to operate and everything

else. And it it's a credit to the two

men that we've lost from the sport between Cleman and Lucas

that they were ready for this moment, right?

And they're absolutely ready for this moment.

And so kudos to both. I hate to lose them both in the

same year for sure, but I got a great, a great note from friend

of the show, Steve Kornacki. And he said, I don't know why,

but I just always assumed Wayne would be around.

And I get it. I that's exactly how I felt was

all that stuff. We were really lucky the Sunday

before Preakness this year, Sean and I got to sit down with him

in his office and 20 minutes, something like that.

And and just just a, a spectacular time.

We got to and there was no script.

There was no, you can't talk about this.

It was just, hey, let's sit down and talk.

We'll figure it out. It was it was awesome.

So I miss having them around for sure.

But the legacy indelible. We talk about coaching trees in

other sports. His trainer tree is as good as

it gets for sure. So Ashcroft will break from the

outside. Julian Leperoux will get them

out. This horse's last win came at

Santa Anita in April of 2024. I'm not going to put Bobtail Nag

on the screen out of respect, but this horse to be pretty much

up the track here. Matthew Similar.

Yeah, similar, but let me just say there's not going to be a

dry eye in the house if this horse manages to win this race.

I mean, I forget about it. I mean that just just stop

racing for the rest of the year. If he puts a word to the horse,

just don't just mail it in because if this horse wins,

that's as good as it gets. And you, you you can't script

it. I mean, it's just but yeah, I

mean a hard, hard horse to come up with in this sort of a race.

But but he's got a couple of other words.

You know, Wayne's got a couple of horses listed throughout the

card on Saturday. He's got a horse in the very

first race, $575,000, son of Charlatan, who's who's come off

as a good first crop sire. Wouldn't be shocked if he does

get a win which which would be really special whether it's in

the first race or the Stephen Foster.

There you go. Anything on Foster Day is an

important race down to hear. The American Derby will close

the card. Race 12.

We're going to mile on the 16th. This is the boys version of the

Tepen. This is for three-year olds.

Quarter million bucks in the line here.

Matthew and Freedom's Not Free is in here and we've got some a

bunch of horses who really, really love to run late.

Any chance this one just gets the lead and runs away?

It's possible because you're right, there isn't a lot of

speed in this race. And when you look at it, there

are a lot of late runners, you know, Antonio Freisu, you know,

it's notable, you know, it doesn't really run Churchill

very often. So again, it we talked about

that earlier with another horse, you know those fractions out of

Santa Anita. It's a little bit different when

you're going up front with those fractions.

And if you get, if you try to run that fast at Churchill,

you're going to come back to everybody late.

But from a pay standpoint, the horse listens more than good

enough from a speed figure standpoint to do it.

It's just a matter of whether you can really divvy out the

fractions and hold off some of these late chargers.

But I I think from a pace dynamic and anybody who's a pace

capper, that one stands out like a sore thumb in this race.

Yeah, he certainly does. Tastic is getting back to the

turf here, but in a very unusual way.

This is a horse that qualified for the Kentucky Derby on dirt,

but before that broke his maiden and then ran back.

How many days apart was it? 6 days. 9 days 9.

Days apart at Kentucky Downs where everybody shows that you

could run a horse on two weeks rest every year at Kentucky

Downs, but the rest of the year it's not OK, by the way, can't

do it. Muddy talks and and so he does

that. Do you consider Kentucky Downs a

turf course? Real.

But now you're really after what I said about the RA, Cowboy

Jones, now you're really trying to get me in trouble.

You're. Never going to be allowed back

at this stage, No, because I don't.

Not for this, not for the purposes of this race, not for

flat racing, I don't. I.

Think that is if a horse is the idea of horse for course is

Kentucky Downs like that is the example.

Like if there is a horse that is only one at Kentucky Downs, then

I need to see that horse. That horse is going to have to

beat me at another track before I trust it.

Conversely, if I see a horse just throws in a clunker at

Kentucky Downs, invites him throwing a clunker, I just go,

OK, he didn't like Kentucky Downs, we'll move on to the next

race. So it's fantastic.

It's hard. You know, it's been a minute

since he's come back. He was a 2 year old in those

races. Other horses have gotten better.

I I just don't think you can assume he's just going to pick

up where he left off. And you know, in the turf racing

and especially when you have a horse like Reagan's wit for

Cherie on the inside, who I think's a nice horse.

And I'll be honest, the other one that I like who I know you

and I have talked a little bit about was Flying Mohawk for

Whit. That horse is at 8 to one.

That horse is on all my tickets at the Bay all the way.

Yeah. Steven Foster get a lot of free

advertising on their show. The guy owes me a check.

I don't know about this. Yeah, Flight Mohawks is

fascinating to me because he was on the rise as a turf horse

before they tried the Ruby, and he was really, really good in

the Ruby. I don't want to take anything

away from him qualifying for the Derby, doing all those things,

but we watched last year and one of the things you and I argued

about in 2024, probably our one big argument last year, was

endlessly in the Derby, right. Oh yeah.

By the way, boy, oh boy, have you been right about that.

My goodness. And because we have not seen the

best of him since then, unfortunately, by the way,

because he was, he was a very fine horse before the Kentucky

Derby last year. And he concerned about Flying

Mohawk with that. A little bit, certainly a little

bit. I, I just, I, I'm glad he wasn't

quite as aggressively campaigned maybe in some ways.

And, you know, they took a shot and it just didn't work out.

And once, Joe. Knew they weren't going to win

that race. Joe pulled off and was dumb.

So that's was. It's not like endlessly who

finished like 7th or 8th I think.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I.

Was driving at the end and really trying.

I feel like that this was almost a bad workout for him or

something. In a lot of ways, yeah.

I mean, it was kind of running towards the back of the pack

pretty early and just said, OK, we're just going to, you know,

call it a day and one of those things.

But I think this horse, I think he can get back.

I like the fact they've given him a little bit of time off,

you know, and certainly, you know, plenty of time to recover

from that Kentucky Derby. And I think this one, again,

when you look at price relative to talent, I think this one kind

of stands out. And I remember, yeah, we were

talking this was one who was kind of on the rise going into

that, you know, race at or the what's the one called Jeff Ruby

Stakes. And I thought reign a really

good race and notable a final gambit came back to run fourth

in the Kentucky Derby. So, you know, lost to an

outstanding horse there. And I just think you're getting

back on the right surface and again, at a longer price.

Absolutely willing to use this horse in my exotics, in my, in

my horizontals. Get your opinion on Minaret

Station before we log off. This is a son of Instilled and

Instilled Regard did win the Bourbon at Keeneland as a 2 year

old in October. We haven't seen him since.

How are you handicapping him here?

Really hard I mean I I he's a bit of a toss for me.

I think in this spot. It certainly would not shock me

if you won will Walden, you know popped down that I mean will

Walden is it's such a good trainer and a trainer I I really

have come to like a lot and have a lot of respect for.

Obviously the story was plus the broken, but even beyond that,

there was a great feature he did with Gabby Gaudet where he was

imitating all of the he was imitating Mike Maker doing an

interview. He was imitating Todd Pletcher.

He was imitating Brad Cox, who and he's got a sense of humor,

which is honestly, we can't say that about many trainers

anymore. But like he's got a big

personality. I find myself rooting for him as

a younger guy in the sport. And so he's he's someone I like

and any his horses are always well turned out.

They're always, you know, ready to roll.

But this one just feels maybe like it needs a race.

And you always wondered about that two to three first start as

a three-year old this late into the season that that's a lot to

do for horses that I think are in pretty prime condition.

Force out on all bets at Churchill.

Closing day is Sunday. We are talking about Saturday.

They're at Churchill Downs. Well, you know what?

Whatever we have Matthew on, we bet the Bay.

I'll tell you what, We appreciate him jumping on here

on the horse racing happy hour. When do I?

So yeah, you know what, less than AI get to see you in less

than a month. That's, you know, that's God's

work right there, there. We go.

That's fantastic. In New Jersey, None.

The less, you know what, just just dark hair and pizza.

Just, you know, I was saying to a friend, there's very few

places in the country that I go and it's just obvious there's no

chance I'm from there. And New Jersey's one of those

places. Yeah, yeah.

I was in Jamaica, Queens, visiting Aqueduct.

You know what? No chance Louis grew up around

there. Like, just it's not gonna

happen. I go to New Orleans.

They know Louie's not from Louisiana.

It's totally fine. Like there's a couple spots in

this country. It's really obvious I'm not from

there. Yeah.

What's funny is I look like I'm from those spots, particularly

the 1st 2, New Jersey and Long Island.

I'm an Italian guy with a big nose.

So everybody, you know, just assume the second I open my

mouth and and the second people talk to me, they're like, oh,

you're not, you're not from around here.

You're like, you're yeah, but I'm told about Telnag and it's

so funny because, you know, you know this about me, Louie.

I grew up in Pennsylvania, but I, I lived until I just

recently, until two years ago, I lived in the South my entire

adult life. And when I talk to people who

are up here, they go, oh, you have a bit of a, a Southern

accent. I go, I can't hear it at all.

But like, OK, according to you, I do.

And when I do these types of things, I tend to have more of

an announcer voice. But like, yeah, I guess when I,

when I start getting kind of lazy, IIA little bit of a twang

comes out. And so, yeah, usually pretty

quickly that knows that I'm not from Queens, I'm not from New

Jersey. Yeah, it's not laziness, by the

way, it's comfort. It is.

Comfort. You're absolutely right.

It's too damn hot to be, you know, so formal about things

all. Right, we'll bet the babe

people's name's Matthew DeSantis Finamat failed a menace on the

socials again. Doing the exacta boosts up there

at Naira vets. Yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun

and we got content for you everyday, you know, races across

the country, across the world, Irish Derby this weekend we got

content for you, so make sure to check it all out on our events.

There's a ton going on. Laurel's closing weekend is this

weekend. Church's closing this weekend.

So lots of mandatory payouts coming down the Pike here at

lots of different places. We're hoping like this that the

pick 6 doesn't get picked off by somebody at Churchill.

That was before Sunday. I think that thing could hit

1,000,000 1/2 bucks by Saturday and it new money easy 56 million

on Sunday. So it could be a lot of fun.

It could be. I'm hoping if there is I'll have

a ticket that's for. That's how that goes.

All right, Matthew, appreciate you, buddy.

Have a great weekend. All right.

Thanks, Lou. You too.

All right, Matthew DeSantis at failed the menace on the

socials. Appreciate him jumping in here

on the horse racing happy hour. We'll be out there on Saturday.

If you see me say hey, you know where to find me as well,

usually in section 320 with one of those cigars from J Shepherd

cigars. So if you are so inclined, head

on over and say hi to our guy Jason there.

I'm Bart. Down Rd. 29 on your way to the

track to get in on the map with him.

Get a free $2.00 with any purchase after your bow.

He was matched with the Sandis. That's been another rendition of

the Horse Racing happy hour. Sorry John Sherba.

Yes, it was an hour and 11 minutes, like the rush the

novel. We'll be back next week.

Hope you are too. Update the editor, Get ready.