Stephen Foster Preview Day | Kevin Kilroy

Lock and awful, but we kept the music.

This is the horse racing happy hour.

It's a May 29, 2025 edition. So glad to welcome in Brenda of

the show. Kevin Kilroy from over there at

Churchill Downs. We're going to be previewing

part of the card here on Saturday.

I'll be out there, of course, my annual seizure for this day.

If you would like to come hang up, I'll be up at 3:20.

And yes, I will have a scar for you.

Kevin, welcome back to town, Man.

As far as racing and all of the things, how the, you know, we're

essentially a month into the meet.

How have you found the meet to this point in church?

Yeah, Louis, thanks, man. Thanks for having me on the

show. Had a meet.

It's been eluding me, I'll say it that way.

Some of the. Payback for last last fall, I

guess, huh? Yeah, payback, hold the hell off

yeah, I'm trying to figure out what it is and I think, you

know, I've been having some success betting them in terms of

top picks hasn't been going so well.

I think I'm seeing the races OK and I'm doing all right with the

the multi race wagers and having the right horses on the tickets,

but finding that one to bet to win has been a little bit a

little bit tricky so. That was my Derby week.

A lot of seconds for me on top picks.

Derby week, yeah. For sure.

Oh, man. Yeah, yeah.

No, that's that's the day you want to get them all home too.

That's right, exactly. Good.

News is I did give out the journalism, the sovereignty

journalism straight exact on Derby day and I told people to

provide in their in their trifecta.

So that worked out at least that part for me.

But otherwise, yeah, I was I was picking 2nd until sovereignty

made me look real smart that Derby.

And look, I here's here's what I think happened to me this year,

Kevin. Last year's Derby was just so

different. It was so exceptional.

It was so everything. And then we had the race this

year and I, I don't know, I don't want to say I enjoyed it

more because it's every Derby's a little different.

But it's one of the rare times, Kevin, where we say, hey, these

five horses are going to go to the front and they do.

These five horses are going to stalk and they do.

These eight horses are going to deep close and they do.

And these two horses probably shouldn't be in the race and

they should have been, you know, I kind of think.

And it just, it felt like we actually, I don't want to call

it a form full Derby, but we were able to predict this one

fairly well. Yeah, it it was.

You know how it goes. You look at these horses for for

weeks and they all start looking a little bit better or different

as you keep on looking. But it was really your first

blank. I think is is what is how it

played out. Just the best ones ran well and

the the worst ones did not run very well and Martin Garcia did

something stupid and all the things that you would expect

all. The normal things, That's

exactly right. Kevin Gowry with us, Rob

Churchill Downs. The fallout from that race.

Of course they could. Often folks deciding sovereignty

not going to make the trip to Baltimore.

You are a fan before you are a handicapper or anything, a

public handicap or any of those things.

Kevin did it. How much did it bother you that

he didn't go to? Baltimore no false I'm I'm a

gambler first handicapped. I didn't even know class I

didn't care steaks. I was just at Hawthorne Benton

animals running around in circle.

I just love the action and the culture around it and I've had

to had to learn the the sport. But I am a big fan of the horse

for sure. It didn't bother me at all.

I don't, I mean, listen, it's what are you going to do?

I mean people are making their decisions.

People make their decisions. That's what you got to learn.

You know, in the world people make their decisions.

So I'm a big fan of keeping the races close together because

what other time how's we going to keep the media at large

actually in tune and paying attention?

If we have 5 weeks or whatever in between, they're going to

forget. They're not going to pick it

back up. They've got the momentum from

the Derby, they cared for it, to the Preakness to Belmont.

People want to know, let's leave it at that.

Whether we get triple count winners or not, I don't care.

You said you're a gambler first. Is a short field in the Belmont

going to bother you as a gambler or are you excited for this

rematch? I mean, I, I think it's going to

be journalism sovereignty. So I don't think there's gonna

be much meat on the bone there. And is it looking like the

field's gonna be pretty? Short, like six horses.

Yeah. Yeah.

But well, and here's here's what happened, Kevin, you know, with

the Matt Wayne and with, you know, other these Midwestern

Derbys are all graded now, man Indiana, Ohio, Iowa, West

Virginia, you can get a graded stakes win for your colt by

doing that. And, and I think a lot of owners

are looking around going, maybe I don't need to shift to

Saratoga. Maybe I don't need to shift to

Baltimore. I can I don't have to put Gosger

back in the Belmont, for example, even though he looked

outside of journalism like easily the best horse at the

Preakness. And I I think they look around

and they see those other greatest stakes opportunities.

Goss has already won the Lexington, for example.

I could see him running in another grade 3, just multiple

graded stakes winner. I mean, that still matters on

their side of things. And so I wonder less of a shot,

you know, say up in Saratoga at the Belmont and more, you know,

those horses will start to spread out, which they usually

do this type of year anyhow. Yeah, that makes sense.

Then that win looks like it's going to come up pretty well so.

Salty. Yeah, it's great.

Yeah, I'm pretty excited about it for sure.

But tomorrow is a preview day for the Stephen Foster and I

have not looked yet young Kevin Kilroy, but a couple of years

ago this went from a Grade 1 to a grade 2.

Have we re elevated this race yet?

Do you know top of your head still grade 2?

I don't know. Oh, you don't know.

OK, that's even better. Yeah.

Steve Foster got put to a grade 2 and I just you know what's

going to happen, Kevin? Is is.

I think part of what happened was the graded sticks committee

reacted to what the older dirt male crops were rather than if

those races were the best of that version of the race, right?

And now we've got this 4 year old, 5 year old group that's

just spectacular. The Matt mile's going to be out

of control. Great, you know, this kind of

stuff. And so I wonder if we're not

getting a little bit of a return to some of these races being

regarded a little better just because we've got better horses

in them. It's a Grade 1.

Oh, good. OK.

Well, OK. Thank God.

All right, good. It's my Grade 1.

You understand that I live around here.

This is my this is my grade one. I need that, you know, I'll get

to live near Saratoga. I got to live near Churchill

Downs. So give me give me these grade

ones, Kevin. That'll be great.

Preview day tomorrow. I have said many times this week

I've become a massive fan of these preview days, whether they

are at the same track in Churchill Downs or in Ells Park

and a Kentucky Downs, this kind of stuff.

I love these preview days. Getting a sense of which horses

are pointing for these races. Does it change how you handicap

at all Kevin, as we get into these, maybe they're not going

to be ready totally cranked up for a grade 3 and they're

looking at the grade two, grade one opportunity in a month.

Or are you just looking for the best horse and and kind of

handicapping these like you would any other race?

I think my sense more is, is, is kind of they want this race,

they're they're in this for for the purse.

This is the one that they want. And maybe we'll see them in the

in the big day or maybe not. You know, if they're here with

the spacing that we see. I mean that back to that same

conversation of of sovereignty, etcetera that we might not see

the most wanted, you know, in the blame, but will we see him

in the Stephen Foster, you know, the way that Cox handles his

maybe not. So yeah, I think they're, I

think they're here to run for sure.

Yeah, you and I are going to go through the late pick four.

There is an Aristides graded stakes before that with Hear Me

Song, Skelly and World Record in there.

Happy as the choice is in there. Ray Lou back in time to ride for

a day. Nice to see his name on the past

performances as well. But even the autoban, these

kinds of races as well. Kevin, I love this extension

that Churchill's really invested in as far as, and we've got the

American turf on Derby Week. Hey, a month later, we're going

to run the autoban. We're going to run these races

so you can keep your turf horses around here.

I think it's been a really nice development down there at Church

Knots. Yeah, yeah, the turf course

seems like it's doing great too. It really does.

They've got it dialed in, so that's a fantastic.

It takes moisture. I love that.

You know, you don't have to worry about going off.

It takes moisture very well. Yeah, thank goodness.

I was so worried. I remember a couple weeks ago it

rained and I thought, oh, man, here comes Kevin.

Here comes Kevin. Christine horse racing KK with a

tweet. Nope.

Turf. Good.

All right, let's go. All right, we'll do it.

We'll take that for sure. Kevin Kilroy with us from

Churchill Downs. Late pick four starts with race

8 out there on Saturday. And this is the Grade 3 Shawnee.

We're going a mile and a 16th on the dirt there at Churchill

Downs. If not the most common dirt race

at Churchill Downs, it's certainly amongst them.

We'd love to do that slight start right behind the 16th

pole, take two turns around Phillies mare Sport and up

$275,000 is the Kitty for the great threes this year. 5 to 2.

Kevin on Where's my ring? And this is where we start to

get into these races where we have horses that have been in

spots, good spots before. Where's my ring?

A Gazelle winner, for example, on the way to the Kentucky Oaks

ran a good third in that Apple Blossom behind Torpedo.

And I don't think anybody that's going to hold a race against

Torpedo and against them. But does she deserve A5 to two

favorite? Here No, I think she ran a good

race 2 back and she she wired that field of optional claimer

M1 XS. You know, she ran a big figure

right? And then she she didn't finish

very strong, but maybe has an excuse the way the track and

that race shape was there in the apple blossom.

But we got to try to beat this one at 5:00 to 2:00.

I mean, First things first, the rail going this distance, mile

and 16th over the last 29. It's not happening at mile

distance as well. It's just it's just not

happening. I'm not sure what the deal is

with that, but it's enough. And I I think we just have to

think that she's got a little bit of a draft number with Peter

Miller. Does that change?

Does that give us any more insight to this one?

Not for me. I mean, coming out of

California. Yeah.

You know, I think I think she wired that field had a

comfortable lead and maybe did a little too much.

Maybe Arietta shouldn't have kept on asking when he was

clear. I've seen that from a few races

recently where you're like, just wrap up your horse.

You know, just you don't need it to to lay it all on the line

right here when you're when you've got, you know, three legs

at the 16th pole. So, yeah, I think we can try to

beat this one. And the next one, I think Alpine

Princess might be the. Favorite.

That's a nice prize, too. 6 to 1 here.

Any chance we get 6 to one on a Giroux Cox combination to

Churchill Downs by the time we get to Saturday?

Absolutely not. I mean just look at the way

she's going back. I mean in the Azeri she she was

8 to one against torpedo Anna, right?

But that's a whole different money situation.

And other than that you can just see the asterisk Spire name the

stars by her name. I guess that's just said for

favoritism. So no, I don't think so.

And I think she's got excuses. She's never liked wet tracks

quite as much and that's what she's been on the last two and

the speed favoring track there at Aqueduct.

And that's what headline numbers did, you know, which is 7 to 5

in that race. So it was the second choice even

there was just four. Had a little bit of trouble in

that first turn as well. So Alpine Princess is 1.

I don't want to get too excited about in terms of Keene, but I

do not want to lose to Alpine Princess back on a fast track,

assuming that's how it plays on Saturday.

I wish the speed figures were a little bit better, but I do

think wild about Hillary is interesting here because I think

there's a chance in this field, in this group, Kevin, that she

gets the lead. And you know, coming out of the

five, that's at least far enough away from the rail that she can

make that kind of move. We've seen her win to buy a Co

at a Grade 3 level at Oaklawn Park in the past.

These are pretty unknown connections as well for folks up

here at Churchill Downs. And so my sense is we might be

able to sneak one in here. I think 12 to one is every bit

of what you're going to get on that horse and it might be

significantly longer. 15/18/21 That kind of.

Yeah, I know these connections well, they are stinky.

They do get there. Tanner Tracy, he's not afraid to

take his shots and and put his horses in tough spots.

And while while Hillary, you know, when in the the Pago hop

was sort of an example of that. We didn't think that she was

going to be that dangerous. But that was on a sloppy track.

CJ McMahon as well. The jockey, I call him the

patron St. of long shots down at down in New Orleans and he

brings them home. He brings them home and you

don't see him coming. So CJ can ride for sure and he's

definitely a good forward rider. I think we'll have a little more

pressure than it than it might seem.

I think, you know, we've got some, we've always got serious

jocks, but we've got Irad in here, we've got Flavian in here

and we've got Louie in here. And I think they're going to,

they're going to keep that one company.

And I mean, I think Royal Spa, Royal Spa, Royal Spa is the one

that might make things most uncomfortable for Hillary, May

even beat that one to the front. And with Lobby and Pratt's on on

the lead, forget about it. Yeah, we saw Jinjin and that

double dog there too, get real close to the front under Jose

Ortiz and I, One of my favorite angles, Kevin, coming out of

that, that specific course there at Keeneland with that short

stretch, seeing horses that pulled away or were able to

close into the short stretch. I love them coming to Churchill

Downs, a place like that where they get a longer stretch on to

play with. And so I think Jinjin's

absolutely part of it here. Can a horse that's had really

good success at Churchill refind herself here?

You talking? About a little bit more.

Yeah, please. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

I mean, I'm gonna let Jinjin beat me.

I I think that's that that was just a gift wrapped race.

Remember, just FYI, was, was on the lead, right, and just took

back was eased and basically everybody but a cult was

affected by that. Jinjin and a cult.

So Jinjin inherited the lead forward track at Keeneland.

It looked good doing it visually looked good, but that just gift

wrapped. So where did that form come from

too? You know, I mean, when she was

doing great, it's hard to move a horse up like that from Brad

Cox. I mean, Brendan Walsh is is

fantastic. But that was that was, it's hard

to expect to see that again. I'd love to see it again,

because then we'd have maybe a, a more competitive interesting

division here. But I think we got a, we got a

beat off of that one. That's seems like it's a mirage

until it's not. All right, who's your Philly

back in here? 3 lifetime wins at Churchill

Downs. I think her run as a 2 year old

in the fall, Kevin was one of the best I've seen by a juvenile

at Churchill Downs in any condition.

She hasn't won since she was at fairgrounds.

You were probably there, frankly the day after Christmas there.

Can she get back to form at Churchill or her best running

days? Probably a little bit higher.

She's just, it's hard to know what to do with Hoosier Philly.

She loves the track at Churchill.

She's got good success here. Obviously, as you mentioned, her

two year, 2 year old runs, her last win in the Broussard, she

just had a very soft easy lead. And I think that's the same deal

with her last stake win here right in the what she win the.

I mean, before that she won the the dig a diamond at Oak Lawn

over a mile there. When was her last win here?

Oh, at Churchill, I think I. Think it's all three in that 2

year old campaign. I think it's been that long.

That's why I'm asking about it, because it's been a solid 2 1/2

full year since she won, even at Churchill Downs, you know?

But to be fair, I mean Tommy, it's shipping her all over the

place. Yeah.

She's running everywhere. Santa Anita, Houston.

I mean like she's running everywhere.

Yeah, she, she ran. She ran great in the in the

ladies classes down at Houston and didn't get it done.

You know, I don't know. I, I never I'm so I'm so tied

into her. I thought she was I, I bought

the hype and then I never know what to do with Hoosier Philly.

Now I I love her. I think she's got a very nice

cruising speed. You watch her works recently.

She's just you're like, oh, so that's got to be very slow and

you look at the time you're like, Oh my gosh.

So it's it's all about. Yeah.

And she can have that great spot.

She could have that that capered seat behind wild about Hillary.

She could be a little forward in this one.

I don't want to lose to her for sure and I think maybe a little

bit of an excuse last time with majestic oops had that one pin

had her pinned in and got the jump on those forward 2 and we

were just chasing majestic oops home.

But we're facing better than majestic oops here today.

That is correct. Yeah, that's right.

We never even mentioned free like a girl on the outside over

4 lifetime at Churchill Downs. I wanted to mention her.

This is her 52nd career race. She has 21 wins already has run

five times this year with three seconds.

I I get it. I get it If you if people are

looking at her as oh, good to play against, that's fine,

Kevin. I'm just a fan of horses that

run all the time and and stay in this kind of form.

I think she's awesome. She, she is awesome.

She she definitely is. And you know, she was outside

chasing, tracking throughout and facing, facing some good ones

trying to get that jump on Torpedo Anna.

But I I don't think you want to draw a line through.

I think Leper Roof fits her a little bit better than than Jose

Ortiz, who maybe grew a little bit aloof, especially when that

turn was dull coming coming into the stretch.

One of my favorite follows as far as track biases on Twitter

is Ryan it was by Ryan Pip under score.

So at Ryan Pip under score, 51% of dirt routes have been won by

post 4 through 6 in the early part of the Churchill Downs

meet. And so that would be in this

race. Who's your Philly wild bow,

Hillary and the aforementioned Alpine Princess.

So there you go. The Arlington is a grade 3.

It'll be race 9 start the late pick three, $275,000 and the

Kitty for this one mile and the 16th on the turf course is 4 and

up. And we see some very, very nice

horses in here that people will certainly know.

We get a Gante in here for example, at 12:50 under Jose

Ortiz. Seen him many times all over the

place, his 23rd. A career run I should say.

Cameo performance in the two for the up and coming Ben Curtis

Bridge lady here go. Good luck with this one by the

way. Yeah, I mean, what are we going

to do? We got a lot, a lot of speed on

the outside. Silent Heart, Mercante, Call

protection, Scott got the the ability to get forward.

We had a nice trip last time and didn't do it Hershey.

Are we going to get forward? Are we going to relax and just

work out that real trip? I mean Mercante is the one that

and that was a good run. Unbelievable.

Got us right. The form has been been great the

past two. We held it from the from the

Turfway Park to to Churchill and and that was a hot pace.

All the rest of the forward runners were were near the back

of the pack. So Mercante and you can see the

price is going to be pretty short.

I think that's the one that we want to lean on the most.

Bertie had a great set up last time.

Hershey's second start as a four year old.

They're going to sleep on on Gigante for sure.

They're going to sleep on Laganos and and maybe Asmussen's

got the secret duo right there, but Gigante didn't want the lead

unless we were trying to do dueling it out with Mercante

last time. So you can see Jose back aboard.

Yeah, I think, I think Mercante is the one I want to use most.

But then also I want to use Herchi and Laganos and I don't

want to get beat by Gigante and Brilliant Birdie.

Yeah, brilliant Birdie is always a trouble and frankly she when

she breaks from the outside she's a little bit better.

It's funny to watch her numbers. Last time she was in the 8 out

of a nine horse field, she'll be on the outside of the 9 horse

field here. Laganos made me look really

smart when he was over the year going into the Commonwealth turf

and I told Tony Kalo he was going to win that race and then

he just boom, he was gone and it made me look really, really

smart. Of course following that up in

the wood chipper over sloppy go. I love that about Laganos.

I think it's just a horse that figured it out at the end of the

year, but he needs to be later in the form cycle to do his best

running. And I wonder, third up here,

Flavian's in town, you know a place at Churchill, he's hit the

board four or five runs. I do wonder if it's a Laganos

that gets back to his form here. I don't know if we'll get 9 to

two. We should frankly, because he

doesn't. He's a very good runner, right?

He's 11 times in the board in 16 races.

But he only has won four of those, right?

So as far as a win bet, putting him on top in this race, it

would be a pretty difficult case to make.

But I don't know. When he fires, man, he's he's

really, really good. When Flavian's in the zone like

he is right now, it's it's hard to bet against.

Yeah, I think he draws better in here and he's got options, you

know, I think he's got tactical options and he's got Flavian to

to figure out how they break and who's going forward and what the

pace is. So I think he's very talented 4

year old that probably has a lot more to show us.

Call protection is in here for Mike Maker, back-to-back winner

at the optional claiming level. One of those on at Turfway.

One of those got a mile an eighth on the turf course there

at Churchill Downs and I I know it shows him in the past

performances being in 6th place for much of that race.

But if you watch it, the optional claim the last out of

Churchill, I apologize. He was right there.

Just a couple of likes was actually a very bunched field in

that group and was able to make the move at the top of the

stretch under one Hernandez. Well, things came in from

California showed himself very well at Churchill during Derby

week. I read gets the mount here.

Do you like the move from Hope from Wanda?

I read I know it's not like, oh, Juan's in town and they're just

choosing to run. I read or something, but rather,

is that a positive for him? Yeah, I think he's in good hands

either way. But definitely I rat on the

turf. I think he's he's fantastic on

the turf, you know. So yeah, I think that's the

question is where he where is he going to be?

We've seen him show speed. Is he going to prompt it?

Is he going to, is he going to try to follow Hershey or whoever

sort of gets in that forward position, Mercante and make that

first move? He definitely got the jump on

event detail. It's hard to take those two.

They've got the figures looking at third Rep.

I think they've got the figures, but hard to take them in terms

of the class. Coming out of that race, even

though it was a good race but Mike Maker 4 year old looked

good last time, wouldn't be surprised to see him hold for.

Maker and I read right now hitting at 15% together.

That is a limited sample size, but when they do get together,

it's usually got a chance. Grade 3 blame will be up next

race 10 start of the late double mile and an eighth on the dirt

course here. And this is for four year olds

and up. This is the official Stephen

Foster preview as Kevin mentioned to open the show.

And Kevin, I've been in love with these races this year as

far as what we're getting for fields for older dirt males.

The two turns I think we took for granted how good the

affiliate mayor crop was the last couple of years and and

just kind of leaned on those races.

But some of the other fields didn't come up as well.

But Alexander Helios and antiquarian in here and

obviously the return of the Derby winner in Mystic Dan, his

first run at Churchill Downs since the Kentucky Derby win.

He'll what is your sense of him? Let's start with Mystic Dan with

the Derby winner, because he's going to catch a certain amount

of money just by the nature of being in this race and having

been the Kentucky Derby winner. Where do you place him in this

group, though? You know, he tries the Pegasus.

They ship him down to Oaklawn, runs really well in the Lake of

Cheetah. Like what?

Where do you think he fits? Yeah, he ran great in Oaklawn.

I mean, he got back to to run his best, his new top there -1

he was over his head, you know, going straight into the grade

one company, I think in terms of going out to California and, and

Gulfstream, But they've, they've taken, taken their time since

then. I mean, it's going to be an

underlay. Like, I mean, what you're

mentioning that they're going to bet this one hard.

I think I, you know, I, I, I think his form in that last

race, if he holds it, I don't see why he wouldn't.

I like the spacing since that last one that he he's a threat

in here, but he's. Not a talented, I think the

distance fits him very well and the distance is a question for

some of the horses that might be more talented than him, right.

Like a post time's in here. That's a really talented

Breeders' Cup runner. He's a really good horse.

Milan and 8th might be the Max of what that horse wants to do.

We know Mystic Dan can do that. And so at at least in that play,

Kevin, or in that way, I should say he might be a play because

I, I know he's going to get the mile on an eighth.

That part I'm not worried about, but it is the it's the talent

aspect, a horse like most wanted.

I, I do do we forget that as a three-year old he almost won the

Clark? Like I feel like we just, we

gloss over that he should have won that race.

Obviously rattle and Roe comes flying late and they ship him to

Saudi after that. But like I, I think we kind of

forget how good most wanted was in the fall And, and frankly,

he's followed it up. I I would imagine with what are

considered to be disappointing performances to stop start, but

behind Pierson, who sets the track record, it's getting long

stopping. He's running on his eyeballs

out. I mean, so at this point, is he

a favorite here just because the company is completely different

than those two horses I just mentioned?

Yeah, I mean, he he's the one that I like the most in here.

I mean, he's just such a he's such a Trier.

I mean, he just doesn't stop at this pace.

Could could get very hot, you know, and I don't think that

bothers him. I don't think he he just doesn't

stop. He never throws in the towel.

There's no, there's no, there's no pause button on him.

So I love him and I think he's he's as game as they come and I

think he draws nicely in this spot.

So hard race to think about singling, but I think he will be

be the favorite in there. So I might I think the majority

of my money in this pick 4 will be tickets that have him on top

to to win it. I think Hall of Fame and

vanishing are the other two. I've loved Hall of Hall of

Fame's form. Hall of Shame, Hall of Fame, You

know, he's, he's been, he's been fantastic.

How about that Steve Hall of Shame?

Deal with that, I. Did not say it.

And I think, you know, last race exiting that same race, yeah,

he, he just he, he brings it in in a good way.

Touch Upon Star ran huge. He was chasing him throughout.

Maybe he was a little bit maybe should have tried to engage that

one a little bit sooner, but Touch upon Star just just pushes

him back. We saw how good Como Rubino

Moyde is winning the what he win down in Sam Houston right for

for Deodoro. So Hall of Fame.

I think 4 year old that's got more to show us vanishing.

What do you do with them? Doesn't doesn't stop doesn't

stop running hard to love those two as much as I love most

wanted. But those are the three that I

would use post time. I think it's going to be too

long, but it's interesting to see that they're they're taking

the swing and trying to get them to go this distance.

They think he maybe can. I like it a lot, frankly, son of

Frosted, I think the distance makes sense if he's able to do

it. He just hasn't done it.

It's really the question, right? So we saw him in the Whitney

behind Arthur's ride. No one was catching Arthur's

ride that day. And then, you know, he's at

Laurel. He's running these optional

claimers against horses that are not of his caliber.

And so certainly Brittany just getting him back, trainer

Brittany Russell getting him back on the track just to get

his legs underneath him. I, I, I'm very fascinated by him

this weekend. I, I'm how you feel about most

wanted? I think I feel about him.

I think he's, I think he's the class here.

And I think there's a chance that he wins this thing.

And we go, oh, is this our Stephen Foster horse?

Oh, is this an addition to that very, very good four and five

year old crop that's going to be in a Breeders' Cup classic?

But if Brad Cox wins this race, like are we really going to be

surprised? Is that really a thing that

catches off guard? My sense is absolutely.

Not, yeah, that's right. No.

Longer shot in here, maybe for the exacta.

Can an antiquarian get up for this one?

Yeah, I like antiquarian. I like to stretch out.

I mean distance is definitely what he's he's bred to do.

And they they got a nice prep in him that was a sharp effort

there over Shaq Diesel. So antiquarian and then

Tennessee Lamb. I mean, distance is no problem

for him at all. It makes the pace interesting.

I mean, but Louise, Louise is going to have him relax and and

off off those and try to get first run on the closers is my

sense for Tennessee Lamb. So he keeps on coming and he's

maybe has more to show us. So underneath he could be

interested for 3rd. And Aquarian last out in an

optional claimer at 7 furlongs under Edgard Zayez.

John Velasquez picks up the mount on Saturday there.

At Churchill Downs, the closer is Race 11.

It is another Grade 3, an unusual close to the Churchill

card we usually get. We usually get a We usually get

a maiden to close cards at Churchill.

It seems to be. We'll call it a tradition, but

it seems like something. Like, well, something, yeah,

something that's a little bit more sort of you're wondering

like, who's going to bring their form and how, how deep should we

spread? That's exactly right, but this

is a mile and an eighth on the turf.

This for Phillies, for three-year olds in this one in

the regret, $275,000. Like all grade threes at

Churchill Downs, Classic Q is in here.

Coming out of a win in an allowance at Churchill Downs.

Totally justified in here. Lush lips ran behind Nitrogen,

who showed right back up in her last outing as well.

An interesting field here. How much are we going to be

spreading at the end of your pick?

I don't think we need to spread too much classic Q that was just

amazing last time. That was such a huge effort.

By far the fastest horse in the field.

And you you got to always pause and say, all right, was last

race the race. Are we going to be able to to

hold hold that form And you know, I think we've got a

three-year old that's that's quite impressive.

Expatriate yes, indeed. I thought the track was playing

fairly forward in terms of the fourth in terms of in terms of

the turf and the way we close though was such a was such a

great kick. It was just one of those turf

moves where you're like this is a turf horse.

You know, this is how you you just break the hearts of a

field. So Jose Ortiz back aboard Mark

Cassie and him. I think I think this is the

goods. I think if you can beat this

one, then then you can you can you can take a good swing at

trying to figure out who The Who else would be on your ticket

because it just kind of drops off quick.

It's him or sorry, it's her and then it's the rest of the deal.

Who could could could be right there.

They all kind of the same profile, looking at their their

speed and then who might move forward, who might not.

So what's your sense? Classic Q Is that the?

Is that the 10? She's very, very good in this

and this is a good this. This sets up well for her as

well because she's going to want to be just off pace and there's

enough of it for her to run at. I think another one that's

interesting to me who is another one that was running in in

different places but came up here last out 100 Lewis size

Irad gets them out here for here for a good time.

The 2 comes out of an optional claiming win doesn't get Lasix

here. I always wonder about the

medication question with three-year olds especially.

They're trying to figure this out.

Obviously as 2 year old, she runs without it, but she has

been able to run with it. But we see these justify so

often. Kevin two turns on the grass

just so so good and I wonder if she's growing into that under

trainer Brendan Walsh. And so I, I think if you look at

her last race at a mile and a 16th, the, the splits were 22

and 3 and 46 and two. If it gets fast up front here,

she's the type that can keep four or five paces, you know,

lengths between her and the leader and be right there when

it's time to make the turn at the end.

And who better than I read for that kind of thing.

And so I think it's 6 to 1 and I think you'll get the 6:00 to

1:00 because the speed figures are just not there.

I think you'll get every bit of that with her in a minute. 40

finishing time at Churchill on the on the turf course in a mile

and a 16th is every bit of good enough to win this race.

Yeah, she she had that perfect set up.

She she had the rail. She was able to fly home.

Scatitude was stretching out that was crazy from Sprint to

route and it almost held very, very game effort from Scatitude.

But that was a perfect set up and she was able to take

advantage of it. And you have Love and Poetry who

had a horrible break. So I think that one would have

won with a different set up. Do you think the pace is going

to be super hot in here? I'm trying to, I'm trying to

think who's who's going forward. Well, yeah, I think there'll be

a couple that'll try to get it. I think Lush Lips will be

amongst them. I think that Flavia Pratt's

going to try to get the lead and I wonder if anyone will push

her, because if they don't, good luck to everyone catching Flavia

Pratt rating on the front. Not a good idea for other

jockeys to let her get away. I think Lush Lips though, based

on some of the form, especially that we saw in Florida at Tampa

and Gulfstream, I think that's what they're going to try to do

with. Her yeah, and I do like lush

lips and I know I know the barn think there's there's definitely

there's more there. I think tough field last time,

obviously with nitrogen and maybe we were seeing it just how

ranked she was got a little bit of trouble because of that.

Maybe she does just want to be on that lead and when she is her

her move into the turn is is just just heartbreaking.

It's just she just she surges in a big way.

I love those type of forward horses that they don't just hang

on. They don't just try to run away

from them. They they get in that good spot

and then they they've got an extra kick when they when they

see that finish line that they they've got that hard for it.

So yeah, lush lips I think is dangerous.

Fiona, I think it's interesting, especially if you're talking if

there is a pace. I think she's got a very big

late kick for Cox. So and who in terms of in terms

of prices, in terms of long shots?

I got what I like. I got 1.

Fixing to be totally justified. You know, I think we got to look

to look to Rusty Arnold for and I don't know which one I I want

in in there to use underneath or or to maybe even to upset at

all. What about you?

I was going to go to the 10 here actually with Golden Sunshine.

This is a Hardy Shemano combination.

Underrated graded stakes trainer is Owen Hardy with with.

He's won three of his last 15. He's a very fine trainer in

these spots. This is a horse that took a step

forward in that allowance last out.

If you look at her running style there, Kevin, I think she might

be the one that tries for the lead here.

And I wonder if they're not going to try to change up the

the running style at least just a little bit.

And look, this is one that you know, breaks her maiden at

Turfway Park. But before that was trying the

Keeneland route as a 2 year old and almost got there over a mile

course on the turf. I think she's really set up

here. And how many Medalla Doro kids

did we hear about over and over Derby week, Preakness week,

etcetera? He's getting hot as a sire too.

And I wonder, I think, I think we forget with him that, that

his, his sire is El Prado, right?

He's an Irish horse, right? An Irish bread.

And so I I think we forget with Medallia Dorr, just because

there's been so much success on the dirt side that he can be a

really, really fine turf sire as well.

Yeah, You know, I think going mile and 316th helped, helped to

get to that forward spot, so I'm not.

Yeah, it was not a fast race. You're totally right.

Yep. Hardy, he's got 2 in here.

It's interesting, right? It's interesting they they drew

poorly. Golden sunshine just just a

headshot. Yeah.

What do we need here? Vince still looking for him to

sort of come on at the meet. But but man, I mean, this is

just another one that I think just as soon as you get away

from classic Q and get away from what lush lips could be is a

sort of our feel for what lush lips is Golden sunshine that's

as good as any of them. So I mean, the more we got to

mention totally justified Saez. He can ride, he can keep on

riding here for a good time if he wants to, right?

And he's going to pop on this 12:50 with speed.

Yeah. Who's the?

Avalachian has come out real salty.

Those parts have come out real good out of that one.

Yeah. And second start after that 260

day break probably needed that one to some extent.

So watch out for for Totally justified as well.

There you go. Fiona is the only one I think we

didn't mention that I think has an unbelievable shot.

What do you make of for Raza Roux starting to meet 4 for 51.

That's a stunning number. Yeah, it's it's been can't.

Last, that's what my my brain says.

Not going to last. That one's that'll flip itself

at some point. Yeah, he'll have a four way day

soon. The clocks bar has been has been

slow to go. You know, this is spring isn't

isn't their meat as much as the fall is.

But Florence is a big part of that.

Yeah. You know, I mean, I don't know.

I mean, I didn't like his ride that he gave to Hoke Rd.

I mean, too sharp, very fantastic to get to the forward

and was loose. Nobody thought she was going to

be, but he's just kind of SAT waiting too long to make that

move while she was running away. And you just kind of get you got

to get your horse into it. And that's what I love about

Louis, right? He just picks up his horse and

says, let's go get in this race and want your want your mind to

stay in it. I want your heart to stay in it.

I want you to have a shot, you know, and and when you let the

front runner go like that and you're sitting back behind, it's

a little bit of a difficult situation, especially with the

way the track was playing. So he's got a lock in though.

I mean, I love flow. He's a fantastic writer and he

works his butt off every morning.

That's why I don't expect those numbers to stay down.

Where they are, yeah, but it gives you a pause, for sure.

And Fiona, yeah, good late kick, for sure.

She can. She can fly.

Yeah, she's got a serious shot. And to be fair to Floral Guru, 6

seconds and 8 thirds, it's not like he's missing the board or

not trying or something. It's just not hitting.

Their first so far in the meet at Churchill Downs.

Well, you'll see him on screen on Saturday over there at

Churchill Downs for Stephen Foster Preview day.

Good old preview day. Enjoying the preview day around

here, but you can find a Matt. Trust your luck on the socials

as well. His name's Kevin Keller.

We always appreciate when he stops by.

Let's do it again in a month, buddy.

Sounds good, Louis. Let's make some money.

Hopefully we can we can cash some tickets and help people out

on that one. I need to stop by the set.

I actually need to come admit that I know you and like, these

are things. And you have to be like, yeah,

I've heard he's on radio here. I don't know him, but you know

it's just a you. Know you know all the guys,

right? I too know everybody.

Everybody's been out there. You guys are so, so kind.

When I ask for, you know, radio hits or whatever, you guys are

great. So no, no, no issues at all.

Yeah, man, come on up and and tease us with the beer you're

drinking or whatever. I don't.

Know cigar or something? Yeah, that's exactly right.

Yeah. All right, Kevin, be good buddy.

All right, later, Louis. Thanks all.

Right buddy, we'll see you Saturday.

His name is Kevin Killer, of course, at Trust Your luck on

the socials. Go find him there as well.

Lit pick four out there at Churchill Downs.

I'll be out there. Section 320.

Got a cigar for you from our guy Jay Shepherd as well.

So make sure you stop on by and say hi to us that day.

Stephen Froster preview on Saturday, of course on Friday,

Tomorrow we will have SoCal Saturdays ahead of the Saturday

racing out there at Churchill Downs.

Meet Barry Spears every single Friday.

If you haven't joined us yet, we would love, love, love to have

you as part of that as well. You can always find Blood Horse

Monday here. When the Kentucky Racing

Spotlight gets kicked again, we'll have it on the platform as

well. Your vote for Kevin Gilroy.

Thanks so much for joining us here.