Stephen Foster Preview w/ Kevin Kilroy (@TrustYourLuck)

We welcome to man is Davis. Kevin Gilroy joins us here at

his little Louie here at ESPN. 680, 1057 at trust your luck on

Twitter, he's always wearing a hat.

He sleeps in a hat, man. You need to know this.

And he hasn't a fully, shaved, his face since the age of

eleven. Kevin.

How are you this morning? I'm gonna go grab a hat.

Actually don't have one on right now.

He's ready. It's easy enough.

I'm not sure if I have it in my office here.

Dan Lewis, how you guys doing? Things have me off?

Okay, Kevin Kevin. Is that the word First

introduction you have ever. I hope not people get me better

than that. Geez, but much worse things in

the world and we're had everywhere.

I go Kevin and Dan have history. They were in the derby draft

together, this year. Yeah.

Hanging out for, at least a mile away.

Yeah. I think who did win that a guy

named Dan Issel had Maids with the eighth.

You think how about you very much?

Thank you had Maids. I had To Phil's.

I had disarmed. I mean, what was the criteria

there? I feel like I've had some no

better efforts into Phil's, obviously, ran the better race.

So we can count that too, right. Hey Kevin, we have to say on

this show. We always acknowledge that Dan

drafted. Raef lafrentz in the top five

and so whenever he can win a draft, we let him have it.

You understand me? We love to have fresh.

So we're going to let him have this one yet.

I'm a day. We have that in common too cab

Your Lovin Jayhawks. Oh, yeah.

Yeah. Dan is, Dad's personal friends

with Bill self. So, we had bill on during a

derby week and all that kind of stuff.

We, I went I made Kevin. I made my very first trip to the

fog in February. They played West, Virginia won

by yeah points. And, and I Made missed mr.

Self, they gave me four, Kansas t-shirts and so I made, I made

the mistake of wearing one of the Kansas t-shirts to the gain

and was shown on national TV. And so I, I will never for the

rest of my life. I will never live that down.

You can't go back. So I'm just going to no no, no,

I'm all-in. Absolutely.

All in rock charcoal. These are coming in, I'll talk

to you. How about the fog, a mirror.

It talks about it, but you can't beat that place to see it to see

a lot. I got to grow up going there.

It's it's a special gift. All right.

Well, he's boys. Kevin kill Reagan at trust.

Your luck on Twitter, you can go find his stuff there.

You can also find him now as our newest contributor to first gen

Sports 1st 1st Gen sports.com, Kevin's doing a weekly pieced

and that I really like called they didn't know.

And so in horse racing when a horse goes from a long odds to

assure Todd's, we say well they knew their everybody knew and

they didn't know is Kevin's. Most recent work with us and it

points out where we might have missed the obvious Trends in.

Bedding and different things with horse racing, he'll be

doing that every week, but he also has to Stephen Foster

preview up at the site as well. Ellis Park hosting, its first

ever grade 1 Kev because of the obvious track issues at

Churchill Downs. In the move out to Henderson

makes the race a little bit different in my mind.

Does it change much for you? Yeah it definitely does me the

way that Ellis Park has been playing been so speed.

Favoring, it will get in all the handicappers heads for sure.

And now we've got the extra wrinkle of The weather coming

through. It looks like it's sunny there

right now but I know the tracks still wet and it looks like

maybe for rain is in the forecast.

So there will be a couple uncertainties which would

hopefully create a little bit of volatility there and some good

prices to go after, you know, horse like proxy.

I think at Churchill, he's in the best form of his, his ninth

career so far and he would have been much more lives at

Churchill and I think all the way gets the rail which is a

good spot to be on that track. I think coming from off the

pace. Be tough for him in this one.

Yeah, Ellis Park. It's been it's been speed,

favoring. And but I still had, I want to

go, what do you guys think this to speed bias?

Number 3 is 12 1, the morning line, Luis saez, chooses to ride

him, instead of those are the guy Last Samurai, hilly, road

last time. It seems like you should be able

to get a good trip and go to the lead and the price might be

right. I'm still, I think it might be a

little bit of under leg because everybody is hit to the speed

bias of the track. It would be a A fitting Punch

play to bet this poor. Same speed bias on the speed

bias track, but I think he's not going to take another step

forward. I think we've seen him move

forward nicely and three races in a row and I'd be surprised to

see him be able to compete with some of these really classy top

Runners from the division, but he has to think about that speed

bias. Well, you know, it's certainly

something you have to look at, but it's been, it's been my

experience that if you start putting too much emphasis on the

track bias, it's going to jump up and bite you.

I still think you make an interesting point, Kevin,

because I think only two horses in this race have ever raced it

at Ellis Park and that's West will power.

And Last Samurai and they both have one race there and it's

Certainly is a different track than Churchill for sure.

I'm kind of thinking this might be the Brad Cox pick for.

I think, I think he's got, I think Brad's got a great shot of

winning, all four of these steak races.

What do you think? Yeah, I think he's been a little

bit of cold though, recently. I mean at Ellis, you know, for

him, right? He's 13 out of 16.

Just a, you know, a bigger, 19 percent, but in these big races

is born. Has been firing to get it done

very well but of of those four races, West willpower, I give I

give the best shot to for sure. I mean, that last race and all

these Runners are exiting common races in one way or another.

Whether it's the the blame or the Pimlico special, or the obon

handicapped. But the alley sheep, I think

it's the one that we really want to focus on West will power, got

the lead there and he, you know, had smile Happy who broke right

to his outside with able to From every step of the way and

talking to Pratt after that race.

He said, you know, my horse ran better than he did when he won

the New Orleans classic and just fold it from being pressured, by

smile happy. And this time, they reverse, we

got West will power braking to the outside of smile happy and I

wouldn't be surprised to see Kratts break in sharp.

Give a little bit troubled, a smile happy there and get a

better trip that he did. Last time, I think he runs

better with a Target early, just pressure and somebody else and

then making a big move and gaining Confidence from that.

So I do give Wes willpower, huge shot but that smile happy his

form is unlockable. He might be sneaking up as the

top runner in the in the division it's a murky division.

Right? Who's the best older male going

long and smile happy. If he wins this one dominantly

he'd be at the top of the cliff, the list from being.

Yeah, I was last three races. The only one where he didn't,

quote unquote fire. Was that a shorter distance was

out of miles? Obviously this is a horse that

wants to go a little bit further as well.

That's the five smile happy some of the horses we were talking

about proxy is Kevin pointed out drew the rail.

He's the one tomorrow speed bias.

That 12:48 horse that Kevin likes and frankly a lot of

people like his speed bias, the three horse for.

I'm okay, Louis sighs. Has he mentioned?

I was there. Kevin and I know five other

people who were standing right next to me at Pimlico for that

Pimlico special, who are still convinced that speed by his won

that race, that's Rattle and Roll.

If you think, if he picks Us off that race.

What do you think he is on the morning line here, if he's not

12 to 17 one? I think he's the one horse that

actually picks off a Rattle and Roll.

I'm saying theoretically if he wins that had Bob is he's more

like a second one kind of horse. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah. Oh absolutely.

I was surprised the Rattle and Roll at 12:56, you know, he's

been running big races when in them in a row, but hasn't taken

a huge step forward in terms of looking at the numbers and speak

bigger, sir grass all that. Yeah, I think so.

I mean, but yeah, baby Bisons game there and battle roll

seemed like he was going to just pass them, you know, by multiple

lengths, but he dug in and huge huge way.

So What a difference in those make.

If it does give you Value there. And you really do feel like he's

the one to get it done. You got science upper best

finisher in the game. In my opinion, there's something

there. But I do think it's a big class

test. I do think we've got two of the

best in here with less World, pirate smile happy.

And I'd be surprised to see speed by its get it done, but I

won't be surprised to see him hang around for a piece with the

way the tracks been playing. And that's kind of the way I'm

thinking about it is really using those three runners

aggressively, my Exotics using Westville, power smile, happy

and kind of interchangeable between the to, I do want to

give the nod a smile happy with my win money as long as the

values, right? But you speed bias in that third

or fourth position and a super vechta and some of the other

logicals 2:00 up for a piece, try to make a big swing with a

pretty, you know, pretty precise ticket so that it's a low cost

but give me a good payout. Kevin.

Let's talk about some of the other races on the card.

The eighth race is afford to lie, Mile, and an eighth grade 2

for 400 thousand dollars. And as I said earlier, the 825

Morning Line. Favorite is a more a who is

coming out of a couple of grade 1 races aside from a more Ada

give anybody else a shot in that race.

Yeah there's some forceful runners in here that Hardy

Constitution has been looking well for Josie We've got

Pauline's Pearl has been disappointing ripeness, put some

good efforts together and see the assets as Barn has been has

been hot as they get. Let's see, you know, those two I

think are interesting but I think I'm a single in here.

Against a more, a with royal take charge that Al stall.

Four-year-old Philly, lightly raced, three wins at a four

tries one, second place finish and was racing down the

fairgrounds there look fantastic.

Like beat non-violence, who will see Ron today.

I believe running over at Ellis Park and couldn't get it done

against jump into the fire but was the favorite.

There looks great in that next one of over jungle juice and I

think really poised to take another step forward at a good

price. So that's a type of a situation

where entices me to play the pick five, pick six, pay for

whatever, I use this Runner with, but well, take charge.

I think could be sneaky here. We're going to get a good price.

You're the last six winners of this race.

She dares the devil Le true ska midnight.

Bisous be late blue prize in Forever unbridled.

If the graded Stakes committee has ever gotten a race wrong,

it's this one. This is a great one.

No questions asked because the winners of this race are some of

the finest Phillies and mares that we've had the last decade.

It's, I really don't understand that.

Being at Ellis, does change things a little bit here.

I think that if the track sweat at all, Kevin, I think you lean

into the old. The old reliables here and in a

more a inning Pauline's, Pearl to 6 and the 5 here just because

they do have good wet numbers are able to run that off.

There are you worried at all about the class step for a

horse, like royalty charge, which is a degree, the looking

at take charge row half there was, it was a nice Stakes

Winner. I'm not a class guy too much,

I'll use it if it finds me value as an angle, but I really like

looking at the figures more and just looking at third ratsy and

These Runners compare you guys look at look at their graph.

It's a sheet of that that I like to look at to to get a good

sense and maybe get a little bit of different narrative that I'm

seeing with the buyers or is that speed figures.

But more has been running to the last two and of course the lower

the number, the better with their grass and will take charge

ra7 finishing second to back step forward nicely to a 3 in

that last effort and you know they've got a nice deal with

patterns where they project whether they're going to run a

new best figure or like matchup. But they did before and 41% the

time Runners with this pattern, run a new top and a new top

definitely puts real take charge in the mix.

So I like the form and looking at the form of projecting

forward to find Value more that I liked meeting on class or even

what a race horse. Had done the last race, so, but

I'm always been fantastic. That was a tough ride last time

from being off, the pace should be more forward in this one and

you know, and cock Giroux, we trust but I'm gonna take a swing

again. Louis?

What was the mayor's name? Blue point.

That one. The fleur de lis.

Oh, blue. Prize Booth.

Yeah, yeah, ironically, her was the one who ran that very close

second in the, in the distaff last year.

Yeah, ironically, her very first.

Foal is in today at at Elmo, she went through the fasig-tipton

sale and xox tables bought. I think they gave five million

dollars for or and her first, foal is in a maiden race today

at Ellis. How about that?

Okay, the next race, the ninth race tomorrow on sale, in which

you ran in the, she won the distaff at us and indeed I

apologize. God is the Wise.

Dan a mile is 16th on the grass grade 2 for 400 thousand

dollars. And Again, Brad Cox has the

morning line. Favorite.

Kevin, does anybody beat set piece in this race?

You know, set-piece look good and I last win but also run Kill

the find trouble coming from from office from the back.

So I'm I don't want to completely fade but I do want to

use some of these prized horses that I think could be

interesting to hear what this number two touch Revenge 12:40

on the morning line seven-year-old been on the dirt

for the past few been sprinting. We look at the turf numbers and

they fit their clothes. We see Sharp bullet Works coming

in. I love seeing that when I see an

equipment change like hers, all liquors off.

Off face Kelly last time you know when the best Runners out

there and just we do seven lengths back, couldn't get it

done there, but we're moving back to the turf.

Francisco Ariat has been riding fantastic Cuts revengeance,

super interesting to me can't cope.

I think probably put it together.

Last out, Cowboy Justice seems interesting Harlan estate kitten

set so I really want to spread with those price horses and for

the majority of my money and I can see says he's getting dust

to I don't want to completely pay that writer.

Man, I went out. It's funny what you?

What you like and don't like, I like a different long shot.

Play hear it, play action, pass the five, I love Tyler, getting

back aboard here. I think she looked tired.

I should say, not ready to run the full mile last time out.

We get her second off the layoffs here.

I think that the 242 lifetime at Ellis is really attracted to me

as well just because so many of these horses because we're

talking about this upper level of grated company haven't run at

Ellis in the way that we're going to be seeing them this

week and play action pass keeps Tyler in the eye.

It's your love that his percentage analysis year has

been really great. And so I think he'll be able to

time this race really well and dropping back to 118 in the

weight. As well has won twice at that at

that amount. And so interested to see if she

can get the kind of excuse me, he can get that kind of trip

that I think he can just a four-year-old here.

I think is going to figure it out this year might be one of

those lost by two and a half lengths last time out in that,

that race you mentioned with Camp, hope who I thought I agree

with. You really put it together that

race. Can we see play action pass put

it together here at 12:48? My guess is is that set?

Piece is going to win the race and I'll have to use someone

like like him underneath, Dan, where Julian here?

Yeah, this just a single. I'm gonna I'm gonna spread in

the other three races that guy in the pic for.

So I'm singling play action pass by the way, owned by coach Bill

Parcells his August dong farm. And so, that's where the Neo

sleazy. You got a horse to bet on them?

That's where he came from. But now I'm I just, you know, if

you're going to if you're going to spread in some of these other

races, you got to find a single someplace and this was my single

here. Do you have a quick pick for the

last race? Kevin.

The, the tap into and 25k, they're going a mile, it's 43,

year-old Phillies. I think it's another one that we

want to play against that, that favor and I think I should Gary

is going to get bet hard look good and eat too much.

Last time. We got back.

Basically the whole field looks like.

Turquoise it to step forward Saturday.

I think this is a sneaky feed Margolis horse on the rail there

and working lights out, and he takes a while with his horses.

He doesn't have them ready to roll in the first few starts.

I think there's a fifth start and go into distance.

That makes such a pedigree. It's a Fein Heavenly Sunday

looks great. Last time.

Girl named Charlie has trip excuses, the past two and

Calhoun brought stand up a gold over to the turf last race.

Those me the second time of the turf makes sense.

If we see another step forward, With that one.

So I'm going to take a swing against your gear in that leg as

well with those those five price horses.

I know, it happened we found a little bit short there but those

are the five that I like. I'll be interested to see the

for wonderful lady. Who's four to one in the line

again with Tyler and Brendon. Walsh one last time at Churchill

in that optional claimer, that you mentioned where Santa Fe

gold tried to turn for the first time under vents on Chamois know

who is not a board here, but we pick up Tyler, which I'm not mad

about. And so third start North,

America should be ready to go in.

This one. Did you land on anybody here?

You know, I was pretty chunky in this.

I thought that the five horse. Excuse me is your aura.

You know what, last year, broke his broker Maiden at Saratoga.

Yep. As a two-year-old and and came

back and and just got dusted in the in the Breeders Cup race but

Wonder first first start back, she'll be, you know, making her

second Start of the year. So I thought her and Brad Source

kind of stood out here, like we don't hold the Derby against

horses. We tend not to hold those

Breeders Cup. Juvenile races against horses

that are he's Kevin. Kilroy, he's at, trust your

luck, he's off first gem Sports as well, right?

For us doing all that stuff. Is preview, is called the

Stephen Foster preview smile, happy and West willpower

rekindle their Feud. Kevin, we appreciate the time,

you and I are going to be hanging out the next little bit

preview in Ellis over the next couple of shows.

But I think instead of doing that, you should probably just

come on this show. So I have less prep to do

appreciate you. Appreciate you.

Enjoy the Stephen Foster. Kevin.

Thank you. I will thank you.