The Paddock Prince Returns | Keeneland

All right, welcome to another manscaped edition of the

Horseback Happy Hour, I mean. So much manscaping.

How are you, Michael? I'm good.

And of course, when we talk about like people that we just

think they're going to be manscaped, we have to talk about

the Paddock Prince himself, David Levitch.

How about that little manscape talk?

How about that? Great introduction, that's.

That's the first question. David, I know it's not.

Yeah, that's the good stuff. We are here, we have got, we

finally got a Derby contender that looks like he wants to run

out front, although we've got to wonder.

If he's quickly, how about that? And a quick one little.

Quick one. How about that?

Yeah. So we got a lot to talk about

today as we get into the final weekend of 100 point races and

really just kind of talk about what we saw over the weekend.

Now one thing that's not on the show sheet, Louie.

OK. Is the performance by Forever

Young? In the UAE Derby, yes.

How about that? So just real quick, I know we're

not going to do a replay on that one.

I know that that was your top pick kind of going into the 100

point races he is. Did he do anything to change

that? Did anything happen this weekend

to change that? No, nothing happened this

weekend. Fierceness isn't every other.

He's probably a toss for being in the Derby at this point.

I also think that Florida Derby field was allowance minus and so

it is very good that a good horse look good against bad

horses, but that's the only good part about.

It, Well, I was not. You know, we're going to talk

about that race in a little. Bit yeah, yeah.

OK. No, but people want to put

fiercest at the top of that board, right?

I mean, that's kind of what you're getting at, yes.

I mean, he's the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner.

I think that's natural to want to do that.

At the same time, I actually think the fact that his field

was not very strong made his performance in some ways even

more impressive. Like Pat, Kelsey did a better

job at Charleston last year than Cal did at Kentucky, getting a

three seed because he was at Charleston rather than at

Kentucky. Sure, yeah, how about that.

But ultimately, like, just the fact that, you know, fears just

broke away from the pack. He ran his race, you know, still

ran a good time when we've seen just just incredibly.

Slow. Give me the UAE Derby winner

right now, I was about to say. I've got.

I've got that clip if you want it.

You got the UAE Derby. Yep.

Listen, Zach's professional. I mean, is he?

It's not on the show. Chase and he gets it up anyway.

Why don't just hear like, what the hell am I doing?

I I got to say, listen. To everybody dog fierceness.

You haven't hear me dog him yet. I'm.

No, you like fierceness. I like him.

You should and I and you know, whether it's in every other or

whether we just toss the first prep race, you know, that's what

we got to think about. So there you go.

I mean, if he shows. Up.

I prefer an undefeated 3 year old like I.

I do as well. All right, let's go ahead and

let's look at this UAE Derby. Let's talk about meters.

Nelson Bay deeper out, Navy SEAL.

Not play Panda gate still with. They said that.

As they get into the running here, Autobahn takes over.

Forever Young on the one right near but balances up now comes

up to the outside of Autobahn, who has to be brave.

It's forever young though. For Japan, who comes up to the

outside of Autobahn goes past by a length forever young, drawing

away here in the late stages. And it's another Japan

domination in the UAE Derby Auto.

Zach, who we got to thank for this video clip.

I can't read it. I think that's just the Dubai

folks that's Racing Dubai, Racing Dubai.

Thank you Racing Dubai for that clip.

We've heard enough about what Louis thinks about forever.

Young I want to hear what the. Paddock Prince thinks about

forever Young and keen Shipper win the Derby.

No, I mean, he's a good horse, I think, but I'm not going to

endorse these horses until they actually do something in the

Derby. I mean, I don't know, He's kind

of like a grinder. And I don't know about the

horse. I mean, he's a good horse, but I

don't think he'd beat that much in Dubai.

But I mean, I guess one day Japan will win one of these

races. But as of now and this year's

field's not that great. So he's probably going to be, I

mean, he's going to be under 8 to one.

I would think. I would say 8 to 1 range,

probably 7 to one. I mean, it depends on this

weekend, obviously what Sierra Leone and some of these horses

do. But I think a lot of people are

going to gravitate to this horse.

And I just, I don't know. I'm not going to bet one of

these horses until they win. OK, let me.

Listen, we we we used to never have Japanese pitchers in the US

either, but now they kill. Yeah, they're, they're.

They're it's going to happen. No, no, I think Levitt just said

we're going to get a winner of one of these.

It's just they're going to have to do it before he bets on it.

That's it, right? Yeah, no, I think he's a good

horse. But I mean, I don't know, I I

can't endorse these horses until they wouldn't do something.

Middleton is the shipper that's had the most buzz ever out.

Of all Thunder, Snow had some too, but.

I think Thunder Snow had a lot, but I still feel like Middleton.

Had Middleton was taught because then he went by like 15 or

something crazy like in the Dubai?

$3,000,000 purchase. I mean the whole thing.

Yeah, all of it. All of it was hype.

Hype. Yeah, are we going to get

Mendelssohn type type hype with this horse?

I I think the fact that this is a Japanese horse and not a

European bred feels different. And I think the Japanese horses

are just getting a lot more respect.

Yeah, As far as, especially as far as dirt races, yeah.

So I think potentially more than Mendelson.

More buzz than Mendelson. Perhaps, yeah.

Different buzz, though it's going to be different.

But the fact that fierceness ran a What was it with the 1:10?

Well, let's while we start, you know you keep on.

Want to talk about the race? Let's go ahead and.

Why would we follow the shoshi? Yeah, let's go ahead and watch

fierceness Win the Florida Derby and one may run to the five

Sixteenths and Fierceness. Thanks to NBC for this replay.

Catalytic is second. Grand Moe the 1st is third on

the outside. Frankie's Empire.

Conquest Warrior at the rail. But they all have too much to

do. Fierceness is putting on a show

in Hallandale today. Fierceness the.

Real. Fierceness has showed up to

South Florida, and he's crushing them in the Florida Derby.

Fierceness geared down and on his way to Louisville Fierceness

authoritatively in the Florida Derby.

He never had it. I mean number was written and I

I'm just going to say that last week you didn't pick them fair.

Who could the? Dog in the field.

What's that? Who could you?

Who'd you pick? Hades, I guess.

Was the OR the? Yeah, and then a Conquest

Warrior. Yeah, Conquest Warrior.

I liked him that spot, too, Yeah.

So I mean when we consider that those three are are decent

horses and I just think the. Fact.

He made Hades look like a chomp. I agree with that.

When he hits that top of that stretch and he's open links and

on the link and he pushes it into another gear and he's never

ridden, that's impressive. Like, that's to me, that's the

most impressive prep race we've seen, so.

Far I have two quick thoughts. The 1st is good on NBC keeping

the local announcer in for that race.

They should do that for all the races.

Every single time. All of them.

Because Stone's really good. Dave Rodman's awesome and they

got good announcers in New York too.

Justin FYI, even with Johnny I officially retiring today.

Shout out to Johnny, but no. There's good announcers around

and they should give us the full experience of getting the track

call from from Travis Stone for example, or from Dave Rodman at

Pimlico. Like they should do those

things. Second thing, it's impressive.

It's OK to say huge number all those things and look if you

think that he's going to be able to do it again 3rd the form

cycle right comes back off the layoff.

This is second off the layoff. If he's able to do it in third

form cycle, I wouldn't be stunned, but I I think he's, I

think he's not going to. Win the Kentucky dairy.

David Wood says you. I think if he gets 1/2 decent

post I think he's a very likely winner at this point because if

you look at his right, he also beaten courses like muted by

like 5 links in the Breeders cup.

So it's not like he'd be. He did beat a bad field in the

Florida Derby. I mean it was there was a lot of

allowance horses and the horse that came second and never even

been two turns and was never even.

I don't even think he'd run into the stakes race at this point.

But I think if he gets 1/2 decent post post and breaks

well, I just think he has way more upside in ability than all

these horses and he has speed. And I think the Derby, I mean I

could be wrong about this. I feel like speed is so

important in the Derby and and long as they're not going 45

again like they did a couple years ago but I feel like you

want horses that can be forward. I don't can anybody else run a

110 in the race if he runs it again it is a big if I don't and

you know people say he needs the lead.

He also raided in the Breeders cup.

It's not like he has to have the lead he just has the break half

well because in the champagne he didn't break very well and then

in the Holy Bully didn't break well.

He clearly is a horse that if he doesn't break well, he kind of

just throws his head in the air and says forget it for the day,

But you all saw what he can do like everybody else if he breaks

well. I I'd like the horse a lot.

I mean, I think you're right though.

That 110 Equibase speed figure, when we look at maximum

security, ran a one O 6 Always Dreaming ran a one O 5 Nyquist

with A1O6 or with a 98, Of course that's not maybe.

The What did known Agenda run? Big Brown did run a 112.

What did known agenda? Run 111?

How about that known agenda Was not a very good Florida Derby

winner. Faster, faster than this one.

Which is hard to believe, But it's very hard.

No, it's very hard to believe. I know, I get it.

He never did a thing really before that or after that,

right? Yeah, nothing's fair.

I don't know, man. I that.

I mean, I. Think hey, I want to be clear.

All the connections make sense. Ownership, trainer, jockey, all

of it makes sense. I'm not saying it doesn't make

sense. I think he's in every other

type. I think in a 20 horse field he

gets bumped in the gate, he's done.

The other thing about him is I don't know if really what other

speeds are in the Derby this year.

That's the real question. Like, I don't know what I don't

know who has a bunch of speed to where if he breaks, well, like,

I mean somebody's going to have to be flying to keep up with

him, I would think to. I don't know what horses have a

lot of speed to begin with in this race.

And you know, and we're dog in this field but what other races

had a good field besides the bluegrass, which we're going to

talk about here in a little bit. The Woods got a pretty decent

field, but the. Wood has a good betting race.

I don't. Know, but I mean.

How good the quality Arkansas Derby.

Wasn't a great field, you know, Emberley Derby definitely wasn't

a great field, right? So when you look at the fields

of of of who he's beat, I mean, no one's really beat anybody,

you know? I I guess my larger point on

that would be take the race for what it is, but not that he beat

the horses by X number of lengths.

Take his performance as standalone, rather than what he

did against those horses. Because I think if you don't

like him, you can use them in anything because he's kind of an

all or nothing horse. Like if you like him, you

probably single him. If you don't like him, you don't

even use him. I don't even know if you defense

use him because he's kind of an all or nothing type horse.

He's never really fought on for a second or third, Like he

doesn't really fight on. That's actually true.

Yeah, that's that's a very good point.

Absolutely. OK, well, now we're going to

move on to Oak Line. Our man Matt Dennerman, who was

on the show last week on his first ever call for an Arkansas

Derby winner. Let's watch him use.

For grade one, how about those? Win the Arkansas Derby. 4th turn

there goes Muth to challenge. Timberlake in the race is on

now. Muth on the outside strides

level Timberlake back in second as Muth takes command.

Muth and Juan Hernandez have a quarter mile board again and

Hernandez gives him the cue to go and muth off the turn still

at front Timberlake second just steal 3rd that Mystic Dan who

tries to rally on Furlong to go it's Muth just steal running

huge and 2nd Timberlake third Muth with a 16th to go.

He's opened up by three, and it's Muth coming down the

stretch at Hot Springs to win it.

Muth, the son of good magic, wins the Arkansas Derby.

No points from Muth in that race yet.

Very good horse, he. Is a good horse, I agree, and

Hernandez did a really nice job too.

Worth mentioning. All right, First off, Matt

Dennerman, other news this week, I mean, getting them on the job.

Congrats. And Matt Dennerman.

We love Matt. He's going to.

Cross second, beyond that Youth has his performance and then we

get this lawsuit and I don't think any of us really want to

like go on and on about this lawsuit and get on your show.

Sure. What's your take on the lawsuit?

By the way, if you haven't listened to it, I did release my

interview with John Sherva on this podcast platform.

So if you want to hear about the the lawsuit itself, you can go

back and. Listen to that.

Not about what you were going to say.

I thought you were going to talk about how Matt Jennerman another

career made by his by his appearances in The horse.

Race. Oh, I don't have to do that

anymore. It's so obvious.

Yeah, right. Yeah.

No, no, everyone just knows that no, it's look, it's an awesome

performance and it's set up what we've all talked about all year,

which is that the Preakness is going to be awesome in a 10 for

long Belmont's going to be fire as far as a betting race.

I mean, like those things are just true.

And and so I mean, I appreciate, you know, Zadon this, this

lawsuit I like more than the others because I think the

reasoning is more reasonable. In other words, coming to a

judge and saying, yeah, just coming to a judge and saying we

bought these horses a year and a half ago under the assumption

that we'd be able to run them this year.

And then we were told in January all of a sudden that that

wasn't. Going to happen.

I think that's a more reasonable tact than they've had in the

past. And and Baffert's name isn't on

this thing, right? All they need is 1 judge to say,

you know what, I kind of see what they're saying here.

That's all they need. Do they need the injunction

really? That's what I'm getting at.

They just need injunction and and then the inability to to

fight it before Derby day. Levitt, you want to have

anything? About this, about the lawsuit or

the race itself? Let's take the lawsuit first,

and you can you can decline the comment if you want.

No, I I mean, I I think, yeah, I mean I just don't disagree with

Churchill letting not letting horses like Batford Run, but

that's all another story I think.

I think you just want to see the best horses in the race.

I mean I think it's a little late for the lawsuit, obviously

did it right after Muse won the race maybe you know a month or

so ago. But it's just kind of it's kind

of takes some of the alert from the race itself when you don't

get to see horses like Muse run against, you know, fierceness.

I know nice those got hurt. But horses like that, that,

that's really. I mean, I don't think the

lawsuit's going to work. It seems a little too late.

But like he said, we said, I mean Louis, I mean, whatever.

I I don't. I I.

I think the time is very strategic.

Yeah. It is kind of strategic because

it's so close and he just won. So maybe it's like we'll get him

in. Yeah, right.

Other news out of the Arkansas Derby and then we can talk about

muse performance. Timberlake rolled out of the

Kentucky Derby after very lackluster performance.

Pat Day, Mile baby. So yeah, Ash is running there

too. Yeah, it's going to be loaded.

Yeah, that Pat day mile. If we've been listening to this

show for a while, Yep, should be firefighter.

Might be the best race of the day.

It. Kind of The American turf's

going to be dope. Like dope.

Dope. Yeah, right.

Yeah. So what would you all take of

would you take out a muse performance?

David. I think he's a really good

horse. I mean, obviously he will

probably be in the Preakness. He's got good speed.

He's AI think he's just a very talented horse.

I mean, I think just Steel is a cool horse that came second.

I don't think he's going to want to get the Derby distance, but

he's a really cool horse and I think when he shortens up a

little bit to a mile 7 furlongs, he's could really have his day

one day. But he's a really cool horse

that shows up all the time and Lucas is back in the Derby.

I feel good for Muth and the connections winning this kind of

race. You don't really get to hear

small trainers like Bob Baffert winning the Arkansas Derby all

the time, ownership groups like the Zon Racing Stables.

So you just feel good for the little guy there.

They only paid $2,000,000 for this horse, so I you know, it's

a nice thing to see them get a third of that money back.

Same connections as American Pharaoh, how about that if you,

you know, if you want to get what Louis throwing out there.

So yeah, I know, we'll see. We'll see what happens if they

get to that injunction at the horse races.

Do you want them to get an injunction?

No, I want Ripoli to win Derby 150 because I think he's going

to be off the wall like that. That press conference we might

delay. Well, we're not doing a post

race show. I will.

Beat them? Well, I was going to say not

yet, but yes, if you win, you might just jump in.

Might have to. Yeah, we.

Might just, you know, yeah, I mean, it is.

It would be cool. It will be.

It'd be crazy. And then and then Pletcher's got

to be forced with the decision. Does he run in the Preakness or

not? Never won the Preakness.

Well, I mean, he hates the he hates the short layoff, right?

So. I mean, if my horse ran a 110

then won the Derby, you obviously probably have to run

in the Preakness, but that would be a tough ask.

I mean, you kind of have to though.

Yeah, you do. Kind of.

I mean, but it's, it's, it's definitely something he does not

want to do. So.

Oh, that's right. Yeah, yeah, that's right.

Yeah. All right.

So let's talk about our points. Anything else you want to add

before we go into the the where we stand?

No. I think that's it man, for the

especially for last weekend's races, yeah all.

Right. We'll start with the Oaks

horses. So our top Five Oaks horses

right now as far as points go, Tarifa's number one with 150

points, Still not your number one choice there, right?

No, Tarifa is my number one choice.

I I don't understand for other people how she isn't the number

one choice for people. That's what I don't understand.

All she does is win. If if people like fierceness,

they should love Tarifa. And I'm not kidding.

David, are you taking Teresa? Oh good dude.

Sorry, my phone. You know, my phone's dying, so

so I apologize. But better we.

Can't hear him right now. We'll.

Yeah. Did you hit the mute button

there, Dave? Can you check out it for us?

There we go. Sorry, my phone was dying and it

would have been way worse if my phone died.

And it did. No, you're.

Good, Philly, But I agree with what he just said.

I I mean, I think she's the favorite going into the race,

but I don't like anybody in the Oaks.

I think the Ashland is a big race to see how just what FYI

does, see how Impelle does handling winners or space

company, see if Leslie's Rose can rebound, see how Candy does

off the bench. So I think that race is going to

be a big tell in how the Oaks plays out because right now I

think the Cox filly from the fairgrounds has kind of

separated herself. But I mean, if Jeff Seflyi comes

back with a huge race, she's probably going to be the

favorite because she's going to be 4 for four.

And I don't know, We'll see. I think there's a lot to be.

You know what, The Oaks, I don't think it's.

I think fierceness stands way out in the Derby at this point

right now, just on speed figures.

But in the Oaks, spread out, unless the dud, I guess, if the

Ashland winner was a dud somehow.

But I don't see that happening because it looks like there's

four or five legit horses. On there, I agree with that.

I I totally agree with that to the point that I think like a

Jody's pride who's 8 to one on the morning line has a serious

shot in the Ashland. Yeah, she's a very she is.

And if Brad Cox wins this race with Impel, I don't think any of

us would be surprised. The the, the headline, you know,

the storyline. I'll be watching David and Mike

is coming out of that Remsen, how good those horses have been.

Obviously the 7th place finisher in domestic product wins the

Tampa Bay Derby, right? The 1st and 2nd place finishers

are Door Knock and Sierra Leone. I don't need to put out their

bona fides. They're racing against one

another again here in the Bluegrass.

So maybe a horse like Jody's Pride coming out of that

butcher, Is that the horse coming out of Aqueduct?

Are we going to see it on the Philly side as well for the

Oaks? I think she's got.

I think Jody's Pride is going to surprise tomorrow at Keeland.

Jody's pride in 5th place in points right now in the Oaks,

and again that's without running her hundred point race.

W Omaha is in fourth Thorpedo. She's skipping.

What's that? She's skipping.

She's skipping. Yeah, she's going Black Eyed

Susan, so that takes W Omaha out.

And then Power Squeeze is the #2 point getter right now for the

Phillies. So if we got if West Stone hauls

out then Fiona's magic would be the the fit horse and points

with 60 points and then we're just going to start watching

that cut line. You know right now that cut line

is for the Oaks because they run 14 is at 45 points.

Wow. Man, that's really high, right?

It's it's all time high this year, but I want everyone to

remember they raised the point values for not winning and they

raised the number of horses that get points in the races right,

so it the thresholds were going to raise at some point.

And for the Derby. Right now it's at 30 points, but

it'll be much higher than that after this weekend.

The top five in the Derby leaderboard.

Fearson's with 136 points, catching freedom with 125.

Forever Young got his hundred point win this weekend endlessly

with 100 points and then track Phantom at 70.

But again, we have some major, major 100 point races.

David, if you if you owned endlessly and he looked as good

as he did in the Ruby, would you try him in the Derby or would

you go back to the American turf and be the favorite?

Hey, the owners are pushing that.

I I kind of found out 'cause I know somebody in that camp, kind

of the owners are pushing it, 'cause he's never had a horse in

the Derby. I think the smart choice is

obviously to run in the American turf, because I don't think he

trained very well over the dirt. But it is the Derby.

You never know that. I guess the owner's thinking, if

I've never had a horse, this is the year it gets out the

strongest pace without the Bafferts and some California

horses. So maybe they just want to take

a chance. But man, if it was the American

turf 750 now 750 grand. I mean, I.

Sounds right actually. Yeah, top two choice in that

race, probably top three choice, so that would be hard for me to

pass up. But then again, if you don't run

in the Derby, you never know. You could have won the Derby I

guess. Whitmore ran last, and he went

on to an OK career. He did.

Yes, he did. OK.

That's the. Thing like you take your shot

and then you figure out where you go from there, right?

Although that 750 is. It's better than it was.

That's 400K if you win. That's right.

Yeah. No, no, it's not.

It's nothing. It's not nothing for sure.

All right, So we're going to. So after I wanted to ask David,

after fierceness, who are your next, like, two or three

contenders that you think are serious shots?

And how many are running in the bluegrass?

The Bluegrass is an interesting race.

I think Deterministic is the wild card of the Derby so far,

because he hasn't hit the two turns yet, but he's been very

good in two races and he really looked good in the Gotham.

But I guess we're going to find out this weekend about the two

turns. I think he has the one that

could have a real upside in terms of something we haven't

seen yet before. We've seen a lot of and we'll

talk about the bluegrass too. There's a horse I just don't

understand. They're the people like, but we

can talk about that when we get to it.

But I think deterministic. Is the horse.

Deterministic is the one. I want to see what he He'll be

in the wood. Yep.

I want to see what he can do. So right now I would have him at

2:00 and after that I guess Sierra Leone or some of, I think

she he's probably the best, he's probably the best closer in the

race I think right now the best horse with the best late kick.

So I guess I'd throw him in there at this point there.

You go well. So David, Louis and I are in the

second week of of Manscaping. Manscaping.

And if you need clips you know on on how to handle that, you

know if you need help. That's an after the show thing.

Well, I mean, you know, we could teach them on how to get the

ladies. Is that a different?

Is that a different episode of this show?

He put his hand on his head. Look at him.

He's in pain right now. Well, when he said I need tips,

I was like, I don't know where this is going.

Oh, if my tips, I mean stop, Listen to what Mike says and do

and then do the exact, yeah. I've been waiting for a long

time. I've been very happily.

So is Louis. So.

Yeah, one of us is happy. Remember our discount code is

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How about that, huh? I'm touching you while I talk

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There you go. That's awesome.

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Our Louis hasn't actually washed his hands since that.

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So why he keeps on smelling his fingers?

That's kind of disturbing, man. This is like that's

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underwear there. All right.

So we're going to go ahead and we're going to talk about the

racing at Keeneland this weekend.

We're going to talk a little bit Friday, a little Saturday.

Can I real quick just before we get going on this, new updates

on takeout rates at Keeneland, the double S have been lowered

to 15%. So if you just want something a

simpler bet, oh it is from 22% it's a big deal.

Actually 7% drop in the double. So at 15% are the turf pick

three which is a $3 minimum. I love that bet at Keeneland

though. It seems like all the smartest

handicappers are on it so it's always it always doesn't pay

well. But then the win play show bets

are 16% man and then the double S in the pick fives are at 15.

Very playable if you are just getting into horse racing trying

to figure out how to bet a double is picking the winner of

race one and race 2. The first race, the second race

that can. But that can literally be race 5

and race 6. Just back-to-back races

essentially. And.

Yeah. Just to say.

That's another positive thing of the of legalizing sports

gambling where they can actually do that with that take out rate.

What does that mean? Like the fact that sports

gambling has helped offset that, that they can actually give some

money back to the better on the horse racing side.

Oh, I think in in Kentucky, that's the historical racing

stuff. Yeah, but more than.

Anything. The tracks control the sports

betting. Of course, yeah.

So. Yeah.

I don't know on the double part, I think they're just hearing

better say, hey, we'd like to not pay 22% on double s and

that's and I think you're going to see huge double s pulls this

week. David, do you agree with that?

Do you think the double pulls are going to be?

Big sorority. Girl, I think the double S are

the second best bet in racing. So you don't have to.

You don't have to talk to me on the bend. double s.

I love double s. Is is win bet your number one or

is like a pick five your number one?

Big 5 It's not the it's not the smartest bet all the time, but

it's the most rewarding if you hit them.

Yeah, there you go. Let's talk.

Let's talk about that Grade 3 Transylvania first.

This is going off. It's the mile on the 16th on the

turf for three-year olds. It's Race 8.

IPod, $400,000 rates I I wasn't going to.

I thought it was. But you know, again I just read

this. Read the teleprompter.

Ron Burgundy. That's it.

So race 8. Those movies are overrated.

Grade 3 Transylvania Did you say they're overrated?

Yeah, they're not that good. Did you know that San Diego was

German for a whale surgeon? All right, Mile on the 16th on

the turf. 3 year olds. Landscape dot.

Com. Louis, who do you like in?

This one a lot of folks. I man this card, the Saturday

card. There are going to be some

prices. There going to be some horses

that jump up. I think we're going to get some

great paydays here this weekend. I got a 10 to one shot on top

here. No, I got the wrong horse in my

in my handicapping here. Hang on.

Oh, there we go. I'm looking at the wrong day.

I got the 10 horse on top here that is can group.

It is a long shot. Nevermind ran in that Breeders'

Cup juvenile turf. They tried him in the Lecomp to

see if he would be a Derby horse.

Didn't like it. Ran fourth by two lengths under

Flavi and Pratt when the three of us actually were out at San

Anita for that Breeders' Cup, coming back after a win in the

Bourbon last year. So one run, one win at

Keeneland. Seems to like the course you

give me. 12 to one with Flavi and Pratt.

I'll definitely take that. Definitely paid off last weekend

as well. Went to the five after that in

Tennessee. I thought this was in and I

think this was his intention. Brad Cox was going to have this

horse running. The Jeff Ruby stakes didn't draw

in until pointed him to this spot.

Synthetic to turf is not an angle you see a lot with him, so

that'll be something to watch here.

But another huge price for Jose Ortiz 15 to one.

He's moving his tack to Kentucky.

This is going to be sort of his first weekend as a full time

resident of Kentucky going forward.

You love Tennessee going into that race.

I also love Tennessee going into the Ruby.

I thought he'd win the Ruby and so that this for me is is very

much if he likes the turf. As much as he was good on the

synthetic I think he's got a legitimate shot.

And then after that First World War as far as turf horses wins

the kitten's joy. Back in February gets two months

off here runs back at Keeneland. Did run to Keeneland last fall

in that bourbon behind can Group, but I I think he's in

good form right now. This is something that Mark

Cassie does really well. Horses at Keeneland has already

trained at Keeneland. We have a time to run at

Keeneland, so the weather's not going to surprise it like some

of the other horses that are shipping from Florida.

So I went, what was it, 10-5 and six on top there in the

Appalachian? All right, let's go to someone

who understands the Cassie barn. Bloomberg.

You do? That's the wrong Cassie barn.

I know, but when you first started coming up, Norm and Mark

were working together, so you were around that boy.

It was for it was for Mark, but obviously Norman was the one I

had to deal with every day. Yeah, so who do you like in this

race? To add on the five horse,

Tennessee he This horse has an abundance of turf pedigree.

I don't know if you guys looked it up yet, but he's 1/2 to a

horse named Moon over Miami who earned 800 grand on the turf and

then also 1/2 to another mod, Philly.

There was 200 K on the turf. So this horse is definitely the

pedigree play in the race. I don't know if you're going to

get 15 to one, but if he's around that price, he's

outstanding value because it's Brad Cox.

You get a Jose Ortiz as you mentioned.

I think first War is the horse to beat, but if you're playing

pick fives in this race, is this where it starts to pick?

Is this pick third leg? So yeah, I mean if you're in the

pick five, pick four. I would spread in this leg

because this leg looks pretty tricky.

I think the 12 horse, Cugino's a nice horse.

He just doesn't win. He's been chasing slow paces as

the last two starts, but he kind of hangs on the money a little

bit and he did not draw a good post in here.

But I think he's talented. And then you always have the the

Charlie Applebut's in here, the eight, they don't ever look that

great on the program half the time and they come over here and

run like monster. So I guess we'll see.

That's Regulatory's only mound of the day.

Also, I don't know if that was, he's going back to Santa Anita

on Saturday, so he's planning on here to ride this horse and then

he's going back to Santa Anita on Saturday.

So that's probably a horse you want to keep an eye on, but I

think this would be a spread race.

But I would put First World War on top and then use Tennessee,

definitely, and pick fives, pick fours and underneath.

I love that angle, by the way. Just which one?

The the Tory angle, I mean. Oh, I agree.

Obviously just he's not flying in for nothing.

That's right. Yes, I agree.

Yep, Get a paycheck and then go home, right?

And he'd like a bigger paycheck than not.

How about that? Absolutely.

What's up, Dave? I think that was the only mount

I saw. I mean, I could be wrong about

that, but I didn't see another mount for him 'cause I would

even thought to myself, he's coming all the way to ride one

horse for his old boys like a dolphin.

They pay pretty well, I heard. You know, they do.

They have a lot of good horses too.

I don't know if you heard that they have a lot of good horses,

but they have good horses. Another small outfit.

Yeah, small outfit. But you know you have to root

for them. Yeah.

Like that. Like that Baffert Arkansas Derby

win. The Central Bank Ashland Stakes.

The Great One Ashland Stakes is Race 9.

This is your Oaks preview. And this really is an Oaks

preview because this field is just unbelievable.

Oak horses and seven of them are 12:50 or better, You know, it's

incredible just to see these odds.

We've got the Breeders Cup Juvenile Philly winner in just

FYI and. The new shooter at Impelle.

Yes. And just and impelled right now

is the favorite. So and then we talked about

Jody's Pride who's at 8:00 to 1:00 and is in the top five in

Oaks Point. So that tells you how deep this

field is. It's $600,000 purse mile and

16th at Keeneland on the dirt. And we'll go with David first.

David, what did you like in this Ashland?

I don't have the morning line in front of me, but I think

Leslie's rode 4 to one on the line, 5 to 1 on the line. 4 to

1, Four to one. That's the horse I was

interested in here. She did not have a good trip

last time. She was kind of stuck inside,

but if you go to her first two races, they were pretty good.

8788 buyers beat Gunsong and her second star, who came back to

win to validate the race, finally gets two turns here.

I want to give her another shot. I don't know if she's good

enough. She might not be near the

competition level of some of these others, but I think if you

were ever going to bet her, it would be today because she's if

she would have won the last race in the Devona deal.

I mean she's probably 5 to 2 in here because she's pleasure.

She's 3 for three now. You're probably going to get

nine to two. I think it's going to be, I

think just FYI is going to be a little shorter in this race than

three to one. She's 3 for three so I think

she's going to be a shorter so if she can dressed up I drift

up. I think Leslie's Rose is a horse

I'll probably bet in here and then you have Impelle.

I never know what to do with horses like this.

She's getting off Lasix for the first time.

She's facing stakes company and she's going to be running

against much better horses. If you remember Punch Bowl last

year was a Brad Cox horse that was coming into this race that

everybody thought was a lock and she obviously didn't turn out to

be near the Philly they thought, But yeah, I would go Leslie's

Rose in here and then just FY obviously is that see what she

can do. She missed the race, got sick,

has a couple good works it looks like, especially the 1-2 back at

Payson Park. So it looks like Maude got her

going again after she got sick. She's going to be coming off the

layoff, but this is an outstanding race, and if

Leslie's Rose is 9 to 2, four to 1/5 to one that range, I think

she's pretty solid value in here.

I went outside, I went to Jody's Pride on top here, 8 to one.

I think what Jorge Abreu's done with his horse is really is

noteworthy, frankly, because this is a guy with. 5 words the.

The whole year, right? It's worth mentioning her first

time routing was the Breeders Cup Juvenile Philly.

She lost by her neck. I mean like this is, this is

what we're talking about. She goes back to Aqueduct.

Terrible weather beginning of March in that butcher.

Obviously one turn mile up there in the slop but in that deep

slop man she's still able to grind out 2346 one 11138.

I think those numbers they'll be faster at Keeneland just because

of the the you know the course is just not as deep as it is on

Long Island. And so I think she'll be really

she'll take to the course while she's been training at Keeneland

recently after being trained at Belmont at their training

facility before that. I do think Impel's got a serious

shot here. I'll I'll be very cold in my

grave when Brad Cox beats me in an Oaks prep in a longer ticket

And so I think that's interesting and if she runs her

ways I do think just FY IS got a serious shot here.

I think one of the more underrated stats in horse racing

is that Bill Mott wins about 17 to 19% of his his races, but

when he gets into graded stakes, he wins 25% of the time.

And so this is a guy who places his horses well.

He gives them the best shot to win in Grade 6 company.

So I do think just FYI is absolutely an include.

It's ironic, Leslie's Rose is my toss in this race.

I'm fading the three here actually, because she's never

gone two turns and I think you're not going to get much

value on her because of the Irad Todd thing.

So I'm going to try to beat the three in the Ashland.

Some of the former winners of this race include Monomoy Girl,

Malefat Nest, Defining Purpose. So there you go.

That's. See, someday this will be an

important race and it it'll be nice.

Yeah, I I feel bad for the Keeneland folks.

Nothing. Horses winning this race?

Ridiculous. Grade one the.

Truest of grade one prep in. It.

For the oaks, yes. For the oaks.

As we move into Saturday, we're going to talk about the late

pick three here, starting with the Madison David, what do you

make of just the the popularity of trainers wanting to go to the

Bluegrass Stakes when it's been a a really just not a good

indication? Is 91 the last winner to win the

Derby? Yes, yeah.

I mean, it's been a minute. It's. 91.

So what do you make of it? I don't know.

I guess some people treat it as it's a grade one and if they won

a grade one race it creates stallion value.

So I don't know if people are looking at it.

I don't know. I these Derby preps are such

good races for stallions because of some of us are grade one.

I don't know if people even look at them as Derby preps all the

time. It's more like, oh, let's win a

grade one and then see what happens after that.

Because if I win a grade one, then I have a stud deal for the

most part. So yeah, I don't know if it

hasn't been the best success for the Derby, but if you look up

comparable fields to this year, I mean this looks like a pretty

darn good race. I don't, I don't.

I might not win the Derby, but you could see a lot of these

horses going on after the Derby to winning grade ones in Sprint

races, whether it is or, you know, different kind of races,

two turn races. So I think it's a pretty strong

field this year. All right, so the first race

we're going to talk about on Saturday is Race 8, the Resolute

Racing Madison Stakes. It is a grade one and it is a 7

furlong race for Phillies and mares. 4 year olds and upward A.

A little horse named Goodnight Olive won this race last year

$600,000 purse. Do we have a future Goodnight

Olive in this race? Louis I think we we might I I

think red carpet ready is ready for a huge year as a four year

old and I think she's going to be a massive competitor.

This season comes off the bench in early March and here comes

the bride because horse racing has the very best names for

stakes races under Luis eyes. He's up to ride for this one.

That was at 6 1/2. We're going 7 here.

She's not a a get the lead and keep the lead kind of horse so

she's able to do it from second, third position, that kind of

thing. So I'll go with red carpet ready

on top here out of the the Arnold barn there.

See what she's got for us. I went out to the 8 Valva on the

outside. She's won at Keeneland before a

second place. On top of that she won the Raven

run in October. So this is her first race back

after that one for the Sharita Voebarn who is now by the way

fully established. She's winning at 19% in graded

stakes. Shirita Voe knows this is this

is no longer a a cute story. Shirita Voe is or a nice story

or what. I should use the word cute.

I'm sorry but not it's not a nice story anymore.

This is she's she's a legit entry anytime.

There's a great at stakes and I think Valma's absolutely got a

shot under Ired Ortiz for the first time.

So I went to 8 on very top. I'll give a look to the six as

well here in all the star. The longer shot that I like here

is Mary. Quite contrary.

The five horse for Luca Pinichi. Here for the pies of Barn Lucas.

Been on this horse It's been running in grade two.

Grade 3 sorts of insider info grade you know down at

Gulfstream Park. Ran once at Keeneland.

Really liked the track. Almost won this race last year.

Only a length behind Goodnight Olive.

If she runs back to her Keeneland form I think she can

win this race. 12:50's a really nice number.

I'll definitely be using her in any exact or trifecta kind of

plays here. I completely agree with you on

red carpet ready, I think. I almost think I want to say

she's the horse to beat in here but I almost think she's kind of

like the now in form horse that could only get better and has a

lot of upside to move forward. Second time off.

I like the three in here. We have to talk about it.

Norm, Cassie, Horse, I think if we.

I agree. If you toss her last two race,

she clearly wants no part of two turns.

I don't know. There's nowhere else to really

run her, I think was Norman's thinking.

Like you almost have to try it. You're gonna.

I mean, she was. 4:00 to 5:00, Well, what's the Azaria $600,000

race? I mean, it's not like, you know,

I mean, you know, there's a check there too, right?

Yeah, he tried. It didn't work.

If you go back to her at Jaluki at church, the last time she ran

one turn she won by 8 lengths. So she's finally getting back to

one turn. I have to play her in this race.

I don't know if the last two races cooked are going two

turns, but I think she's a horse that's going to create value in

here at least. I mean she's got to be at least

6-7 to one in here I would think with the red carpet ready and

the outside horse for sure. Devoe as you mentioned, but I

got to play this horse in this race.

It's it's a finally gets back to what she's doing.

She has speed. Just can't hope that.

You got to hope that she hasn't been a little cooked up in her

last due and hasn't lost a lot of confidence.

So she wins. Do you sneak into the picture

like would you be? In the no, I actually me and

Norman the year, the year I worked for.

Mark, they had a falling out. Do you not know about that?

No. Yeah, it's been, it's been

horrible. I can't believe you're doing

this right now in front of all these people.

Yeah. No, no.

Me and Norman, well, I always, we always joke, would that be

great works for Norman. He won 22 races with his dad and

they won the spring meet. And I have literally have like

22 winner's circle pictures that I don't want anymore and I have

so many winners. So I've had enough winner's

circle pictures. I used to sneak into them, like,

you know, when Saratoga was there one year and I didn't even

work for him anymore. Finish your drink.

That's not even a humble brag. That's just annoying.

You're annoying, David. Good Lord.

Well, it. Has so many winner circle

pictures I need to get rid. Of them they won like 1 drink.

Oh by the way if anybody was wondering, this is not wine.

This is the only water bottle I could find.

I'm not hugging a wine bottle. This is a vodka, I promise.

It does work for Southern wine and.

Spare there, yeah. Yeah.

It's an Avion model, so if you are wondering why I'm chugging

at 7:50, it's just water. It's it's great Goose.

It's great fun. But no, I don't sneak in a

winner's or two pictures anymore.

We're we're down with those days.

That's the the fun of a live broadcast you just never knew.

What's going to happen? And we got kicked off.

And so now I think we're back on and so yeah, there that's what

we got going on Louis. So we were talking a little bit

about the the. Stakes on Saturday.

Yep, the Shaker Town. The Grade 2 Shaker Town Stakes

is what we were on. So talking about how little

horse named Caravel won. This horse won this race last

time. Louis, who did you like in the

caravel? You think that happens

eventually? What's that?

Rename this race after something else or shake your town.

I'm sorry, the Shaker town. Who did you like in?

Shake. No.

No, I I no. But you did that on purpose,

which is all good, but I mean like.

You know, we're we're adding people to the broadcast.

Now Oh, that he's back. We're back.

We're back. I'm just glad, David, This is

the. Show that's going to win US in

the Eclipse award. This is it, man.

This is it. Eclipse time.

The Shaker town? How about that?

The last talking about the Shaker town.

Is is Arzac a really good horse or not?

Like that's the real question here.

The six horse, can he run it back?

Can Michael Trombatta get this horse up again like he did in

the Woodford? Like Zach was going to run in

the in the race. Here, I know what Zach's quality

is. Zach is high quality.

But I I want to say one thing David was in the middle of of

pubbing really quick. So I know we don't really pub at

the end. Oh, pub away, an opportunity to

pub, pub, pub, pub. That way we can talk about his

Paddock, Prince Ness, and he can humble brag again about how many

winner circles he's been in. Yeah, well, David, I stood in

the winner's circle at the Kentucky Derby last year.

Did you? No, there's like 300 people in

there, though. You can just walk down.

Oh man, oh. Man, we lost them.

Louis, David's the new host. Sorry.

You're out. There you go.

All right, well, Paradox. Yeah, Yeah.

Can Arzak run it back? Can he run that Woodford again?

He obviously finished two legs back in the Breeders Cup Sprint.

Can he can he run it back here? I think he's the class of the

field here. I do think there's some longer

prices in here. I'm interested.

They brought up Edgar Zayas, Dale Romans did to run on

Coppola here, who has been very good the last couple of times

out. Panther Island is up here.

He's interesting, but if you're looking for longer shots, I

think you can take some, especially in turf Sprint.

Sometimes they just don't go the way you think.

How good is mischief Magic? I don't know.

But Charlie Appleby isn't bringing this horse for nothing.

But I think Beer can man at 8 to 1 is really interesting.

I think the four horse here, Phil D'amato ran in that British

Cup chair Sprint last time, finished seventh by two and a

quarter. Legs 'cause everybody finished

right there behind No Balls and Big Invasion.

But before that was really good in that Woodford.

Yeah, he would no balls. Doesn't mean need manscaping.

How about that? And so there you go.

But beer can man would be my longer shot here.

Bappy Brian likes Keeneland but hasn't won there, so I'll be

interested if that's a horse that can that can get a piece of

the prize to a 12 or excuse me, 12:20 to 1:00.

But David, who do you like in the Sprint here?

I'm going to be honest, I don't like anybody in this race.

It was it's turf sprints really. Or I mean you have a horse like

Arzak who's coming off the layoff.

What are you going to do with him?

The seven horses coming off the layoff, Let my people go.

The 8th coming off the lab, a lot of horses coming off

layoffs. It's a turf Sprint which are

already hard enough to pick in the 1st place.

So I don't like any of the Florida horses and I kept going

through the race. Mischief.

Magic, I'm guessing. Is he the morning line favorite?

He's got to be. I don't have it in front of me.

He's probably the George priced I would assume but.

Seven to two. Yep, that is the favorite,

right? That.

Is it? He did win the Breeders Cup,

juvenile turf Sprint on, so that has to be a little bat in the

bit of back of his mind, obviously.

And Charlie Appleby sending this horse back over, he's coming out

of a couple good races overseas and all these other horses are

all layoffs. And I'm like he's shipping this

horse here. I'm just going to probably

single this horse in the pick five, close my eyes and and just

close my eyes and hope I make it past.

Because it's one of those races where if I don't use him, I mean

if I just use, don't just use him.

I'm using like 7 horse in this race.

I have no feel for this race, to be honest with you.

There you go. All right, we're going to move

on to the the main event, the million dollar Grade 1 Bluegrass

Stakes with AI. Don't want to say a loaded

field, but the top three is legit, right?

We have a top. Three.

Who's your top three? In this list or on this race?

Excuse me, Sierra Leone, OK. I love door knock, OK?

And then just just a touch. You don't like door knock now?

That's the horse I was talking about earlier about I just, I

don't, I know I don't want to hate on your horse door knock.

But now go ahead. Sorry, hate on it, man.

I just don't like this horse. I don't think he's very good at

all because if you go back to his Rimson Super Gold rail in

Aqueduct when that day, and that's why Sierra Leone's race

was so impressive and that race that was that super gold rail.

And then if you want to talk about a bad field in the

fountain of youth, that was that was the race where I'm sure, I'm

sure you all remember every good horse in the race scratched,

including Speakeasy at the gate and it kind of left him alone.

And also, have you all seen that they're going to try new tactics

with him by making him chase horses instead of sending the

lead? I'm not a big fan of trying new

things, I guess. Maybe 100 point, at least right

before the Derby. But I don't want to hate on

everybody who likes door knock. But I don't understand this

horse at all. But I've been very wrong before

and I'll be very wrong again, so I guess he could prove me wrong.

I'm usually wrong, so it's it's. It's oh, it's OK most I'm wrong

70% of the time. So it's OK maybe.

You think this 30% horse racing is killing?

Maybe I was going to say it's probably 80% actually, so,

right? What you think Sierra Leone just

takes this one and runs with it is it is like almost a single on

here? I think he's the most likely

winner. I like just the touch.

I think he's the horse that he's never run on a fast track.

He's obviously been touted since day one, broke his main short

odds, came back in the Gotham was favour over Deterministic,

who I already mentioned that I really like.

I want to see this horse going two turns on a fast track

because I think he has a lot of ability and he was kind of he

was making up ground running on determination, just ran past him

because he was very good on that day.

I want to see what he can do going two turns and he's going

to be good value in this race because like you mentioned

Sierra Leone or Sierra Leone is going to be a short price near

at least probably 9 to 5, two to one.

I want to see what he can do and then I want to mention one other

horse. I know I've talked a lot about

this race. I'm very curious to see what BU

does going two turns because if you're a buyer speed figure

person. His last was huge.

I think he's the fastest in the race in 96, but can he translate

it to two turns is a big question because he's always

been a horse that's been touted. He lost the just deal on debut

couple grade ones after that, finally got the maiden broken

last time out, so I want to see what he can do now that he has

some confidence. Going with Fletcher and Rapoli,

that's the second. Fletcher underneath would be.

I would use that horse. Underneath.

I think he's a horse. Maybe sneak underneath good

odds. All right, Louis.

I agree with him on top. I disagree about door knock.

I think he's a better horse than whatever trash heap David just

threw him in. But I do think, no, you're good.

The luckily the horse, the horse doesn't speak English.

Look, good money's in this race and I don't know what to do with

him, but I liked him ahead of the Tampa Bay Derby and he

almost won the damn thing. His first time going, he really

did. Now that was a slow frickin

race, but it was also his first time going two turns.

So I'm interested actually in him at 20 to 1.

Javier Castellano had as good a big race year last year as I can

remember in recent modern history between the Belmont, the

Travis etcetera, like he had a really terrific year.

And so interested to see that horse back here under Javier

Castellano. And then the other, I mean the

Turfway shippers coming in for this one, How good is Encino?

I just don't know. And by the way, Turf.

Buyer increase, I don't know. It's like from 6568 all the way

to an 89, so it was just a huge increase, so.

Interested in him? Epic ride comes in here out of

that Battaglia as well. And before that it won the

Leonardis Go in two turns. So this horse has tons of two

turns experience. You know can John Ennis

translate that success? He had a Turfway Park down to

Keeneland. I I don't know.

But that's a really nice horse. Son of blame.

It's not like, you know Giopati on the mom's side.

It's not like he's not built for this.

Blame. Blame.

Oh, what is a blame? Is that?

Better. OK.

There you go. So, yeah, no, I mean like all of

those things sort of add up that if you're looking especially

like David just mentioned, still on a trifecta or something like

that. And even the one horse.

When does Chad Brown run maidens in grade ones after off Maiden?

He's an allowance condition guy that kind of likes using it.

That's worth his million Dollar Horse broke his maiden on debut,

throwing him right to the wolf right off the bat.

He was really good in that one turn mile of Gulf Stream.

Yeah, he was. I also you don't see Chad Brown

debuting on dirt at a mile very often either.

That's kind of the Military Rd. too.

That's a he's a pretty good horse.

So I mean, yeah, he's another. I mean, this might be too much

too soon, but why can't he hit the board at 15 to 1?

So there's this could be a, a, an exact or a trifecta that

could pay a little. Oh, I think there's potential

money. Yeah, for sure.

Yes. Especially if, you know, let's

say, you know, they try with door knock to make him a

different horse and he's like, screw you, I'm going out front

and he fades. If any of these horses catch up

with him, especially, you know, like if a good money goes out

front with him, for example, let's say and he's conditioned

better and he's ready to go this time, you know, third in the

form cycle here. Why can't good money be fast at

the door knock on Saturday. I'm not sure he hasn't been to

this point in his career, but as far as like taking steps forward

and being a better horse this spring, I think he can

definitely do it. David.

Does it bother you guys that Track Phantom ran so bad in the

Derby that maybe track Phantom's just not as good?

He's not as serious to turn 9 furlong 10 furlong horse and the

horse, I mean Syria ran him down.

Does it bother anybody as much as a little Bothers me because I

guess he did be catching freedom in there who came back obviously

to win the Louisiana Derby. So I guess there's been some

proof to that race that it was strong, but I don't know.

He's short. It's closer.

I didn't know Louisiana Derby had finished yet, I.

Thought they were, I thought. They were still running.

Yeah, that was. I actually came second.

The horse, I bet came second there.

I had no clue the horse was inside the Honor Murray horse.

I had no clue that was the horse inside of Catching Freedom

because he got no calls and I didn't.

I didn't miss it. Yeah, I was, yeah, our Van

Dooley there. Be rather be better, John, Come

on. And of course, you know David

does hate Doorknob, who was the full brother of the Continue

Derby winner last year. That's all good.

He is, Yeah. He.

Is good magic by the way won this race.

How about that? There you.

Go he finished second or third in that one second.

Second in the Derby? Derby.

Yeah, second in the Derby. I thought he had justified

turning for him for a second. He kind of made a run at him and

then. Audible look good as hell in the

stretch too. That's just well, that was a

good race. Although justifies a hell of a

sire right now, too good magic's got justified now, I mean.

Oh, he's catching up. And he could be.

Oh, the people that got in with good magic at 50 are feeling

really good. Yeah, right.

Yeah. All right, David.

Thank you for tonight. I'll.

Ping you on Saturday, You going to be out there?

Saturday's TBD tomorrow for sure.

Friday. Going to be there Saturday.

The weather's not great. I don't have the cold weather.

It's. Going to be cold tomorrow,

Saturday's like mid 50s but at least going to be sunny so I can

handle. That that's where like I'm just

thinking about going to watch the Reds this weekend and I just

don't know if I want to sit up there in the. 50s Yeah, yeah,

just not fun. The track's different.

You can move around. You know you can.

So got those? Yeah, adult beverages to warm

you up. That kind of stuff, you know?

Yeah, yeah, it's good. You have fun.

I'm not going to the Reds game though, That's too cold.

Dave, you want to go and pub your stuff one more time, yeah,

please. Yeah, Horse Racing Nation.

If you go under expert picks, you'll find me at Paddock,

Prince, Keeneland Aqueduct, Santa Anita this weekend, going

in the spring at Churchill. And yeah, we'll have all the big

days covered every day. Do you have a Santa Anita Derby

quick pick? That yeah, that race.

I don't like imagination at a short price.

The other Baffert's always scare me, but overall I don't think

it's the best feel in the world. So I think Baffert's going to

run 1-2. It's something probably, but

we'll see which one it is. I wouldn't surprise me if it's

other one. But no, honestly, it's not.

It's not the best race. So but.

It's not, I agree. All right, man.

Thanks a lot and we'll we'll take some.

Appreciate you, guys. Thank you.

Yeah. Bud.

See bud. All right.

Louis, did you want to go back to those previous races?

Oh, sure. If you want to talk

Commonwealth, sure, yeah, we'll talk about the Commonwealth.

And the Appalachian real quick, maybe do like kind of a quick

pick. So this is.

Let me ask Zach here, Appalachian.

Appalachian. Which one is Zach, 'cause I know

what I know. You're Appalachian.

I'll. Probably.

Say both honestly, Zach. Do you have a preference?

You know that. Both.

I don't say Appalachian. Dictate that we can basically

chameleon choose which one we want, right.

Like so, right. So I I grew up in Chicago where

it's Appalachian, right. But I spent a lot of time on the

each East Coast where it's Appalachian and in Texas no one

cares. So there you go.

There you go. I I would say Appalachian.

Like, if I'm just not paying attention.

There you go. I've become an Appalachian guy.

I don't know. I think that's just living here.

But no. But it starts with the

Commonwealth. By the way, all stakes pick five

on Saturday at Keeneland. Usually that means you're not

going to get a ton of payout. Sure, I think you're going to

get a ton of chaos in this series.

So it's gonna be fun. So, quick pick, who's your

Commonwealth pick on this? One Commonwealth I landed on the

make sure I get the races right. The four horse Reyes, Kane, do

you remember before the Perryville, which he won at

Keeneland? I said, man, I think Ben

Colebrook's really doing the right thing and turning it back

in distance, but I'm going to let him try once and then he

won. And so I think he's on top here.

Man, he loved Keeneland last time.

He's two before Keeneland, obviously a Derby alum of last

year, but I think they've really found what they want to do with

him. I think he's a good frankly a

good example for what they could do with oh gosh who did they

just with Timberlake. I think he could be that kind of

horse. I think Timberlake probably a

little better of a horse overall as a three-year old, but I do

think there's a good shot that he'll be developing in that way.

The 9 horse then is Minnesota ready on the outside will be the

horse that will be the favorite in this race but three for 9

lifetime on dirt. They tried this horse a bunch on

the turf and it just didn't win. 4 for 22 lifetime is getting the

five to two favorite. I don't love that.

So I think that's a horse that I'm going to use.

But I think it's one that you could beat.

And then the seven horse and hear hear me song.

I don't know what to do with this horse.

I I really don't so I just good luck with.

That then, let's go to race seven, was just the Apple

option. Manny was in this race under

Flavi and Pratt is probably going to win because he's 5 for

44. Lifetime and just mess with

that, yeah. All right.

Let's go on to the Grade 2 Appalachian 8 Furlongs on the

turf. So that's the one on the quarter

by the way, this mile, mile, I mean it's one mile, yes, mile on

the turf. Oh, did I ride a furlongs?

No, you did ride. I'm a bad person.

I apologize. I promise you in 2021 I would

stop doing that. Oh, OK, one mile on the turf

here, Louie. Who did you have in this race?

All right, Michael Columbus has has requested a raising cane

style race analysis. People on the horse racing happy

hour don't know what that is. Has Mike Gandalfo heard me do a

Kane's raid? I have.

It's been a little bit, yeah, you're and you're you're getting

to it. By the way, I love if they want

to sponsor us. You're raising Cades guy.

I think it's the best chicken. Really.

Yes. How about that?

I don't think it's close. Like, I think Mike has never

eaten real chicken raising canes.

I'm talking about fast food, chicken fast.

Food. Oh, Raising Cades is fine.

It is. It's fine.

Yeah. Yeah.

No, no, it's fine. No wing.

Stop. The sauce is good.

Kentucky Fried Chicken. Wing Stop is disgusting.

Wing Zone wingzone.com 3 area locations in Louisville Check

them out. Wing Zone is awesome.

I like the Louisville Wing Zones.

Yeah, it's actually I will take, I will take everything you

mentioned. I will take.

Go ahead. Do your read.

But in the Appalachian, welcome, friends.

Wait, I'm going to. I'm going to throw out some

fighting words here. Raising Canes is the in and out

of the South. Oh jeez.

Go ahead Louis and. Welcome back to the Appalachian

Friends when you think of racing at Keeneland I.

Might be getting erection. You think of turf, You think of

green jackets, You think of stonework, beautiful paddocks,

barns as far as you can see, beautiful rolling hills,

manscaped people, beautiful manscaped people, and hopefully

manscaped ladies. Are those blendscaped?

Yes. Femmescaped.

How about that? We don't really care on this

show what your background is, but there are a lot of nice

Phillies in this race. It is for three-year olds and.

You lost your. Picks.

I did not lose my picks, but I landed on the 10 here and that's

pounce for Javier Castellano. Mark Cassie won a race, so going

a mile and Gulfstream Park last out.

Oh my. God, and here comes the bride.

I thought that was a fine race and I think she's really primed

here. What's the background?

Music that you would normally have for this.

It's from the movie. Oh gosh, What's that?

Werewolf. The werewolf movies?

No, the girl won Twilight. Yeah, Twilight.

It's from Twilight. I'll do that next time, Michael.

We'll get the background music next.

Time but you feel good for this breeding group looking at lucky

$10,000 Stuffy 10 What do you announce?

This horse is already earned over $200,000.

It's just kind of story that makes my nipples hard, but I lay

it on the 10 on top here, pounce and then went to the four.

And if you're looking for value in this race, this is the second

time starter out of the Chad Brown bar this.

Is the. And when I think of turf, I

think of Chad Brown. We get Flavia and Pratt flying

in for this one, and they've won three their last eight mounts at

that beautiful, sexy Keeneland racecourse.

Raising kings. All right, that's.

With Grecian Goddess The Four, I love that 10 to one prize and if

you don't love 12:50 prizes, I can't help you.

Is that good enough? That's good.

That's good. All right, Kai Ryu is in this

race as well. The five horse coming in over

from overseas. Sridevo doesn't do this very

often. She's done it once.

Brought a horse in, first time starter in North America, one

essentially 14 to 1. So this horse I think has a

serious shot 2 for three lifetime.

We tried her at Dundalk last time over 7 furlongs.

The only real question about the five here, who I think I'm going

to try to beat, is that this horse has never gone two turns.

And so in a group of horses that have already, a lot of them have

this kind of experience already, including, say a Grecian goddess

who broke her maiden at Tampa, But she did it going two turns.

She at least already has that experience and so I'm going to

leave it on her instead. And so to do 10436 and maybe the

9, here I put a question mark. Next to the nine with Buchu

coming off a layoff since that Breeders' Cup.

Juvenile Philly turf for Phil Bauer.

He is 5 for 11 to start the year as Phil Bauer.

Very few starters but boy when they start they win 45%.

These two have won two of their four starts at Keeneland.

This is for Martin Garcia, of course, who flew out for

Breeders' Cup to ride this horse after she won both adjustment at

Keeneland and then the a maiden special going two turns on the

turf at Churchill Downs. So if this is the horse that you

want to use, Buchu I think does have a shot here.

I just don't know how she's going to be off the layoff.

But that is something that Phil Bauer, very limited numbers,

does very well. So there you.

Go. OK.

Are we done tonight? We're done.

It's time to go do other things. I want to hear about the wood.

Tomorrow. Tomorrow on Louie's show 11:50

What time is? 11 o'clock 11:00 So Matthew

DeSantis jumping on at 11:00. I'm going to talk to Dan Cronin

at 11:20. He grew up with the new U of L

coach in Cincinnati so I want to get his thoughts on the

Keeneland races. But Mick Cronin is his brother.

Oh brother, brother. So Dan Dan is brother and we're

going to have Dan Cronin On tomorrow.

He's Doctor Keeneland. Dan is what he goes by fat ball

guy racing. Of course we'll have him on at

11:20 so we'll do a 40 minutes of horse racing.

Honorable we're going to get. His contract and how it's not a

big boy contract. Yeah.

OK anyway. It's not a big boy contract.

It's OK, all right, But he's not a big boy.

It's OK. He's 5-6 but he could be right

and I think that's what they're hoping for.

Listen, they'll have to pay. He's a lot of confidence and got

to marry a woman who's taller than you.

That's all I'm going to. Say, how many guys you know like

that? Your boy Nick's one of those

guys, right? Not, not a whole lot of them.

Not a whole. Lot of them pretty short.

Nick my my buddy Nick is his wife's not taller than.

Him. Oh, she's just that short.

She's. Short too.

Got it? I mean, I, my short friends,

marry short girls. There you go.

You know, so all right, we're going to head out.

We're going to pay tab. Get out of here.

Thanks for listening to another manscaped edition of the horse

racing happy hour. I will not be here next week.

Louis will be doing you'll you'll have a couple guests.

I. Don't know.

It'll either be ISL or Kranaki. I can't.

I can't have it. Nailed it.

Down I'll be drinking lots of bourbon at.

Birmingham. So, and by the way, if you're in

Louisville and you don't want to listen to this show, there you

go. You want to go to Bourbonville.

We still have a couple tickets left.

It is going to. Be Oh, it's Fireman the.

Chain 17 distilleries plus Tito's plus 5O2 winery.

All you can eat, all you can drink for.

Your mom's going to be there. My mom probably is not going to

be there. Oh, but I'll be there.

And the pink jacket rocking it. Got it?

Comes opposite of Keeneland. It is.

But man, I love that pink jacket.

I get my Cadillac on Monday. Wait, wait.

Wait, wait, wait, wait. You can't just throw that in and

go away from the show. What the hell do you get a

Cadillac for? What the The official, official

vehicle that can tell you Dirty Festival.

You get to drive it. Yeah, I'm, I'm on the executive

board, man. Do the Cadillac people know

about this? I have to pay an insurance

rider. Yeah.

OK. I'm happy to hear that.

There you go. All right, there you go.

So there it is, yeah. You riding anything else this

weekend? Probably not, because I'm.

Always out there. You go.

That's it. All right guys, have a great

day. Have a good weekend.

Hopefully it's a profitable weekend.

If you're heading out to Keeneland, by the way, on

Saturday, ping me on Twitter at Radio Louie.

Let's get the. Hat.

I'll have my hat on the whole thing.

Yeah, yeah, you'll find. There you go.

All right and enjoy the beautiful scenery of Keeneland

later. Beautiful.

Pack What do? You think of please out, Zach.