Virginia Derby | Pick 6

Oh man, Oh, I hope it's not. It's good.

Y'all of course racing happy hour, hanging out with you on a

Thursday edition of the program. Josh Rodriguez, Barry Spears

alongside. We're talking Colonial this week

as they will have the Virginia Derby this weekend, Virginia

Oaks right before that, of course, doing lots of one turn

miles this weekend. It's almost like Aqueduct S

Josh, how are you, man? I'm doing all right, yeah.

And you know it. It was interesting to look at

all these one turn races here. You know, I love the turf course

at Colonial Downs, the the dirt, the dirt course, you know, still

still in progress, I think, but should be fun weekend.

Hopefully we'll figure it out together.

Barry Spears spent the weekend with me in Los Angeles and we

still talk to one another. Barry, how are you?

Yeah, I, I, yeah. I was surprised that we were

still on speaking terms, but yeah, no, everything's

excellent, man. Loved it out there in Santa

Anita, and I'm also glad to be back home and not in Colonial or

at Colonial where it was snowing today.

Couldn't handle that. But man, Carlos Morales,

breaking weather news, That's what we need in our lives.

Is Carlos Morales just dominating the weather in in

central Virginia? That's what I have to give him.

Credit I loved his gente three O 5 winter jacket.

That was pretty sweet. Aw, he's crushing, dude.

Look, there are levels of horse racing, podcasting, and then

there's Carlos. And it's just, yeah, it's a

different thing. It's all, you know, we all want

to keep up, but we can't. We're presented today, by the

way, by our friends of Stockton Mortgage hanging out with us

throughout the Derby trail, getting you ready for the

Kentucky Derby that first Saturday in May.

I, I can announce today that if you've been to the seminar

before at Blind Square, we're going to be back there this year

Tuesday night of Derby week. We've got our usual spot on the

2nd floor there at Blind Square. We'd love to see you once again

if you happen to be in Louisville that week.

Cost you nothing, Dinner's free, drinks are on me.

Not kidding. Open bars, come on by and hang

out with Louis at a Derby prep, at a Derby seminar, I should

say. Blood Horse will be there.

Lots of giveaways. And whichever ADW decides to

attach themselves to it this year I'm sure will be very happy

that they did. But Colonial pick 6 here, the

$0.50 pick six, non traditional, or excuse me, traditional, non

jackpot. I should say I like it a lot.

Barry, are you down with that? Yeah, it's always good to take

swings on big days because you know there's going to be a lot

of money in the pool. Hopefully there's a carryover,

but I don't think so. But hey.

Here's for hope. Leading into the day, you mean?

Yeah, right now that would be great.

Josh. I'm kind of of the mind man.

Don't give me the $0.20 with a with a jackpot.

Give me $0.50. Make me work for it.

Yeah, I think $0.50, yeah, I, I think it makes it much more

approachable for people. Even the dollar pick 6 gets gets

really expensive, especially if you get some big fields, $2.00

is near impossible on on a budget that I'm playing on.

But yeah, I I like the $0.50. Yeah.

Now in the traditional pick six, give me all of it.

Take those jackpots out of our game, please.

Would be a very nice thing. I'm not.

You don't need to introduce more of them.

That's all I'll say about that. Barry Spears, Josh Rodriguez, My

name is Louis Robot. Thanks for hanging out with us

here. Odd of the horse racing happy.

I wanted to ask you guys to this point if you had a Oh my gosh,

Derby favorite. To this point, it's been kind

of, I don't know, I think a mixed bag of results from a lot

of the different preps. Josh, throughout this year, of

course, we were out to see Potente last weekend in the

Santa Anita Derby, and I'll be really clear about him.

Only a second race. Josh, I have no idea what's on

the table for him moving forward, but if more distance is

part of it, he might be just fine, especially out West in

that group. Anybody stand out to you, though

so far? Maybe a paladin or something

like that. I mean, I thought Paladin,

actually Paladin really surprised me last time he ran

out. I I was definitely against when

he ran last time and you know, he, he proved me wrong.

He he looked really, really good.

Obviously you look at the breeding on him.

I I think he he's going to like that.

I think a horse like silent tactic, I think is going to get

better with more distance distance there.

So those are the the two that I'm I'm kind of most interested

in, although honestly, I I know the rule is never get fall in

love with the Tampa Bay Derby winner, but the Puma the Puma

looked pretty, pretty interesting last weekend.

So. I was fascinated by Canaletto in

that race moving forward, maybe not as a Derby horse, but maybe

as a, you know, pick off the Preakness kind of thing.

Barry, where you at with us? See, I and and this just goes to

show you what kind of year it is.

I like further ADO. Perfect love again and.

And Chief Wallaby is the other horse that.

Yeah, I like him a lot. Quite a bit.

He he ran pretty good even though he lost to commandment.

I think that was just a factor of experience more than anything

else. Yeah, it's interesting these

different years, Josh, where, you know, those of us who play

don't mind a a mixed bag of horses coming into the Derby,

right. We we so often want that star

coming in, whether it's a journalism and a sovereignty

last year, whatever it might be. I'm totally down if we've got

like a star or two and then 18 like live shooters in this thing

for sure, yeah. And it's, and it's different now

too, right before you would see these horses run in all three of

the preps or two out of the three of the preps, right?

And you'd, you'd see these horses longer, but really now

you have no clue really until those last preps are run.

You know, I, I mean, who knows what the heck is going to get

unleashed that in the, that last set of preps.

You know, we see some of these horses now come in with one or

two starts and then they're like, all right, we're going to

go for 100 point prep and, and see what happens.

And, you know, I'm sure we're going to get a couple of

surprises here in the next couple weeks.

No, I think that's exactly right.

Let's go ahead and start awesome handicapping.

We'll start with Race 5 there Saturday at Colonial.

Everything's 100,000 except for the last race, which is $85,000

or more. The Royal New Kent is race 5A

mile on the dirt here, 4 and up in this one, and we go to Berry

first for this one. A horse I saw a couple years ago

win the Indiana Derby over Grade 1 winner Stronghold, by the way,

is Dragoon Guard. Hasn't been quite the same since

then. And boys, only one win without

Lasix and that was in the Indiana Derby.

We're going to try to beat him here, Barry.

I I really want to, but I think this field shaped up so poorly

that there really is no other direction to go.

I mean, there is that possibility that that the pace

gets hot up front and he won't like it.

And the only other horse I could see that would pick up pieces

like that would be Tor player. Those are the really the only

two horses I kind of settled in on.

I I kind of like the Japanese horse a little bit, but I'm not

really sure what they want to do with this horse.

He's been running way longer and doing a lot of different things

and you have some speed on the inside with Rolando.

So I think this this pace may get hot and it it kind of sets

up for those outside horses. Yeah, Camoro being A0 0DA won

that, won the stymie last time at Aqueduct and it was first

time in the Rob Actress barn. He's kept this horse since then.

I do wonder Barry, if if Rob just thinks he's a one turn

Miller, right, if he's just going to try to pick off spots

either at Aqueduct, eventually to Belmont, even at Saratoga,

whatever. But pop in for races like this.

I wonder if they do think there's something there.

We try to beat the favorite, Josh.

You know, I'm I'm definitely using it.

It's just tough because you look at the figures, even though they

were losing efforts, I mean, they're just much faster than

what a lot of these horses have run off Lasix.

And I, I think you mentioned the only other horse that you know,

is in the same ballpark in the comorbino Amoyed the two there.

And you know, this is, this is a horse that's taken the banishing

route apparently, where they don't know what, what distance,

but it doesn't matter cuz the horse shows up.

It doesn't matter if it's six furlongs or a mile and an eighth

or anything between. But you know, you look, you look

at a couple of those back figures.

I mean, you look at last year's Steve Sexton mile.

I mean, if he can get back to that, which was also run off of

late 6, I mean, he, he totally fits in here.

I I'll tell you, I think I've seen enough of of a horses like

tour player, you know, first time off Lasix, that horse

progressed a a ton. So I I think at least the two is

shown a little bit of ability off Lasix and and the six, while

the six is only one once off Lasix Dragoon guard.

I I think the figures are are are too hard to ignore there.

Dragungard, of course, trained by Brad Cox.

I read Ortiz in to ride him. I'm interested in Rolando.

The only horse that has experience at the track, by the

way, one for one is that horse running this distance, by the

way, that was in a similar stakes in August.

And so interested to see if that horse takes to the track again

or if the snow makes Colonial different enough that perhaps it

doesn't quite work out. The Sandy Bottom is divided into

two divisions this year, race six, the first of the What would

you guys rather have one race with 14 horses or two races with

7 Berry? Easy decision one Race 14.

Let's go. Could not agree more.

Josh, are you the same? Yeah, for sure.

Especially when you kind of look at these two divisions, I feel

like 1 is a little bit more stacked than the other.

Would have been interested I think to see all the horses in

the same same run. My sense is it is the first one

that is a little bit more stacked for you, young Josh.

You get to go first here. Who'd you land on in the first

version of the sandy bottom? Yeah, I actually really like the

one passage east in this spot. Sheldon Russell is riding here

for Hugh McMahon. And you know, this is the horse

that went off Lasix for I believe the first time last time

out and absolutely just popped, you know, I mean, ran a a 93

buyer in that that effort. And you know, I I if you can get

7 furlongs a mile shouldn't be too, too big of a difference.

And this is just a horse that's just kind of step forward, step

forward, step forward. And I think it is going to be

coming into this race with with, you know, obviously off of a

nice stakes win. The only other horse I was

interested in was on the outside horse, the seven.

Her laugh I thought was an interesting horse.

That was another one that's just after switching barns and coming

into Riley Mott's barn. Just took that huge step forward

and has been making these incremental increases each time

out. We're going to get a little bit

extra distance coming in off of three straight bullet works and

gets Johnny V, which is never never a bad thing when there's a

any type of big time race. So I I like the one in the seven

in this spot. Yeah, the seven Her Laugh did

win and on 1st asking against winners in the Untappable

Stakes, go to mile 70 at Fairgrounds.

Yes, A2 turn a mile there, but essentially the same distance

there. Barry, where'd you land in Race

7? Here.

It's funny because, sorry, yeah, myself and Josh have landed on

totally different horses. I I I'm totally against the

inside horse, the one the favorite there passage EI think

there's a lot of question marks with that horse.

The distance. I'm not sold that this horse

wants to go this far and the rail draw.

You know how I feel about that there.

There's enough speed in here with a horse like running away

that could make things a little bit problematic for passage.

EI know he probably isn't going to want the lead, but he'll have

to get out of there because Zdorsky isn't as bad as the

morning line suggests. And I think they may in fact

line up across and, and have some speed with a mouthy drive

in there and, and it kind of sets up for a bit of a closer.

I I kind of like brown sugar in this spot.

I know they have that bad race at parks, but if you throw that

one out, this horse has been running in good races against

good horses. Lost to Destino de Oro on the

turf, which I don't really believe that this horse really

wants the turf. And then last time lost to Miss

Marinelle. These are these are pretty good

horses lost to Classic Cube. Second time out.

This this horse has some speed and and can run.

I'm guessing Flavian's going to get this horse into the race a

little bit sooner. Not so far back like they've

been the last couple of times. Looks to be training forwardly.

I, I think at 8:00 to 1:00 this horse is, is looking really

good. And the other one is Chaston.

The 6th kind of for the same reasons is, is kind of the hot

horse. I think I I just want to see

Irad get up close or closer than they have been.

Yeah. I was just going to ask you, how

is she going to be able to close into this pace like that from

further back or is she going to have to be closer than?

Your answer, I think so it's this is a pretty big drop in

class, honestly. If you look at the horses that

this horse has been running against, you have simply joking

in there. Bless the broken disco rules,

Liam in the dust. I mean, these horses would be

really, really tough in this spot.

And this is a a bit of class relief, even though they haven't

been running in stake races often.

We saw Jason not run until November a 24 of her two year

old year. She did break her maiden one of

those high level races at Churchill Downs on one of the

two year old futures days ran back in the silver bullet day

after that. We have not seen her in stakes

company since moving on to race 7 with Josh Rodriguez from the

on the wrong league podcast and my friend Barry Spears who you

see way too often alongside me. I'm movie Ramone.

This is the horse racing happy hour presented buy Stockton

mortgage. Go check them out if you need to

refinance or if you're looking for a home all up and down the

middle part of the country. Our friends at Stockton to

Mortgage appreciate him hanging out with us.

Time for the second division of the Sandy Bottom.

Another mile on the dirt here. Phillies and mares forward up.

100K on the line here. Barry.

I'm interested in runaway diva in Race 7 here as part of this

field. I think she's an interesting 1.

Julian Leperoux picks up for Michelle Hemingway.

This is one we saw in the wayward last.

Last out at Tampa going 2 terms, but before that does have a win.

A pair of wins actually at Colonial, two of them at the

distance. Who'd you land on a Race 7?

Fine, landed on the three. Think fast.

I love horses like this that come off the bench running.

They were out off a layoffs from November 29th to February 4th.

Ran a really good race in a race they should have won and they

did. That's to me spells improvement.

And this race isn't all that strong, at least not as strong

as the last one. And the favorite here is a

little bit shaky. I'm not really sure how classy

that horse is Ran good at Tampa since the the barn switch.

So I I imagine this horse is going to be on the engine, but I

think runaway diva the seven will be glued to that horse's

hip and it kind of opens it up to have think fast fall into a

really great trip 6 to 1. Is is is a really good number

here? I doubt we'll get that.

I I think this horse might end up going off second choice.

Josh Conch fried rice will break from the four.

Would you try Conch fried fried rice?

Because I would. I I think, Oh yeah, it sounds

delicious. OK, I just want just want to

make sure that we're all on the same page as far as the fried

rice. Where'd you land on this one?

You know, I, I think the interesting part of this race is

the four you have to make a decision.

Do you believe the last number? Or do you know?

If you believe the last number, everyone's running for 2nd and I

think I'm going to pay to find out, especially if we get a

little bit of a price there on the four conch Fred Rice.

But I have I have her as my second choice.

My top choice is actually the inside horse, the one Queen

Azteca here. You know, Rudy Brissett trained

here for a horse that has, has been kind of going longer every

time and and we've seen these sharp Aztecas, you know, they've

run really well in these kind of route distances, one turn

distances. So I actually really like the

fact that this horse is cutting back, coming to one turn is

obviously a tactical horse. We've seen this horse run come

from off of it and be close to it.

So I, I think he's going to have, you know, governor have

his choice on what he's going to do gets Christian Torres, who's

a really underrated jock in my opinion here.

So yeah, I, I really, there's a lot to like, I think for the 1

Queen Azteca, obviously, you know, we talked about the four a

little bit. I mean, I don't know what to do

with the six. I mean, the six is going to be

super short, you know, obviously last time, you know, it came up

a little short when off Lasix. So was it the Lasix?

Was it the distance? Is the cutback going to be good?

Yeah, and it's going to be a short price.

So I, I have the horses and include for for a horizontal

type thing. But I, I really I, I have it as

my third choice in here. So there's probably not a ton of

value going with horse like the six.

Barry is Eumonia, the six here, the six to five kind of favorite

to play against in this whole sequence.

Well, I, you know, if you ask me that on any day, I'm going to

say. Yes, but.

It it it's tough this race because I can see versions of

this race where the the six gets a really easy lead and kind of

skates home and and can't ignore that, especially getting Pratt,

who's a really good judge to pace.

But I thought if the three could fall into that trip we were

talking about and maybe get sultry last to to kind of push

the six a little bit. I I think the three has a lot of

upside and will probably be a decent price enough.

Sandy's better than the favorite.

Enough sandy bottoms, let's get to the Oaks Trail. 50 points on

the line in the Virginia Oaks quarter, $1,000,000 as well.

We're going 8 1/2 furlongs a mile on a 16th over the one turn

there at Colonial. Obviously 3 year old Phillies in

here. Josh, you go first in this one.

I love seeing dazzling Damon here.

Ironically, so do you. What do you like about her?

You know, I look through this field and I see you got a couple

of maiden Breakers or heck, even maidens in this race.

And then, you know, I mean a Bob Baffert coming from Sunland.

I just, I mean, if, if we want to talk about just horses to bet

against the short price, that's the type of horse I'll I'll take

a shot against. So so I ended up on the one

dazzling Dame. You know, it's been working

really well here and you know, it is once again, it's another

kind of tactical type has come from just is sat just off of a a

faster pace, like in the Pocahontas where she finished

fourth or has gone wire to wire, where last time at Aqueduct

ended up winning by, you know, 11 1/2 lengths and and just, you

know, knocking everyone off their off their feet there.

Now once again, when they're Aqueduct figures, I mean, might

as well, you know, might as well be rainbows sometimes.

So, so it's, it's tough to tell if that's a real, real number or

not, but that Delaware figure at least fits.

I'm just going to say just backed it up, yeah.

Right. So so yeah, I I think I'm just

going to take a shot with this one dazzling Dame.

It's going to be my single. It's going to be kind of what

I'm going to be keying my, my day around.

And, you know, I, I, I think, I think my, my friend, Mr. Barry

Spears is going to disagree with me very strongly here.

Oh yes, I wanted to point out, by the way, that this part of

This is why we love horse racing is that two Bros can just say

you're an idiot about this and the other guy could say you're

an idiot about this and then you go get a beer and watch the next

race. You know what I mean?

Like it's. Just Oh, absolutely.

Barry, who'd you land out of the oaks, brother?

Yeah, I'm I'm going to have to give the stamp of approval on

Batav Rouge here. This horse really has been

keeping outstanding company. You see the really the only race

that she didn't run all that well was the Breeders Cup.

Juvenile Phillies lost the Super Corridor and Explorer Percy's

bar. Any one of those horses would be

probably odds on in the spot and and would push bottle Rouge to

the second choice. But I think this horse is just

getting started. I think the one turn miles right

up this horse's alley. There's really not much in this

field. If you know, dazzling Dame might

be OK if they can just get away, but I I really don't think

they'd be able to because bottle of Rouge is awfully quick.

If Cadabra gets out there too, then it's a party and and I

think that sets it up even more for bottle of Rouge.

So that's the horse I'm leaning on.

I I would give hit parade a second look and and just toss

that last race didn't really have a great trip was it was a

little bit wide and and. I think the one turn mile fits

this horse a lot better than going two turns at Oakland, so

that makes a lot of sense to me. But they're both going to be

short prices and this is just one I think obviously, I think

bottle of ruse is the most likely winner on the card.

So I'm I'm going to you know, when we go back over some plays

later. I like this horse a lot to start

and finish some bets. Barry's best bet on the day here

in race 8 will be in fact, bottle of Rouge.

I was going to ask you about hip hurray.

Josh and Barry walk through that a little bit.

Started her career on the turf. But I remember talking to Brad

Cox about her and he essentially said that's where we could get

her in. That was the condition that

fits. So we, you know, we, we, we

slapped her in that race and, you know, kind of went nowhere,

Did finish a decent third, got a check at least.

But, you know, they move her to Churchill.

They move her to a maiden 50 of all things, and she goes ahead

and wins that thing. She's allowed to go into, you

know, starter allowance kind of company.

And then they move her up to the untappable.

She does the darn thing under Luis Saez.

What do you make of Hit Parade? This is the daughter of a Derby

winner in street sets. She's been good at Churchill

Downs. I mean, they got to be thinking,

just get through this race and get back to Churchill, right?

Yeah, it's, it's interesting. You know what happened that last

race, right? I mean, you saw a huge.

You saw a huge, you know, regression that last race where

they went a mile and 16th. They're going to be going a mile

and 16th here again. Maybe they think, hey, we're

cutting back to one turn here like we were running at

Churchill. Maybe this is going to be, you

know, a little bit better for us.

But Even so, I I think you, you still need a pretty big jump

forward from those, those races last year to, you know, to catch

up to here. But I'll tell you, I've bet

against many slow Brad Cox horses, including in last year's

Oaks. And that came back to bite me

where, you know, last year I was like, oh, his horse is too slow,

too slow. And yeah, she made me look

foolish so. All right, it is time to talk

Derby and young Barry Spears. Do you know what the Virginia

State motto is? Virginia is for lovers.

That is correct and on this show we love to play, buy or sell.

If you think a horse in the Derby can win yet, it's

Virginia's for lovers and if not, Virginia is for haters.

All right, so here we go. We'll play Virginia's for

lovers, Virginia's for haters on the horse racing happy hour.

Yet another very special thing that I'm sure Stockton Mortgage

wants to be affiliated with. We're going a mile and an eighth

on the dirt course there at Colonial Downs.

Half 1,000,000 bucks on the line. 3 year olds running in

this one. A spot in the Derby on the line.

Butane makes the trip from the West Coast.

Barry, we will go to you first here.

Butane lover, hater. Hater.

I don't. Know this doesn't seem like a

horse that that can get a mile and a quarter honestly, at least

not yet. I haven't seen it.

How about for this race? For this race.

No, I don't I don't like it this horse here either.

I I I hate the one draw and I don't think this horse is as

good as the reputation. OK.

All right. Josh lovers are haters here.

Oh, I hate this horse. This is, you know, you know,

this horse is, this is going to be a Pat de Mile type horse, I

think. Yes, yeah, I can see that.

I suggested Brad Cox run one of his Phillies in a in the Pat de

Mile and he told me to just stick to radio.

I got the old shut up and dribble.

Grittiness will break from the 2.

The name Pletcher is next to this horse, which makes me look

twice and also ran in the Withers Josh to no avail.

Grittiness I I don't, I don't think of you as a very gritty

guy, but we'll move on from that.

Is he though? Is.

He though. Yeah, I mean.

Yeah, I mean. These jazz guys, they kind of

hang out in those neighborhoods. Hey, you don't know what

happened at 2:00 AM after Jazzer reggae gig.

Man, Yeah, no, no, I that part's removed.

What is all this stuff? The bathroom.

The the two grittiness. No, not for me.

Yeah, I'm a hater on this one. All right, Barry Grittiness.

Yeah, I'm a hater of the year on this one.

Thank you. Yet to break his maiden has

tried the mile twice. Best finish was in a maiden

special go second behind courting who's not a bad horse

himself, but probably not good enough in this field.

Epic desire will break from the three.

We last saw this one in the Sam F Davis.

But wait up the track broke his maiden before that at Tampa.

Josh Sheldon Russell rides this one.

Sammy Camacho had the the ride last time.

Let's say you about this one, lover hater.

I'm a hater on this one too. You know, Didn't really run that

well at at the Sam F Davis. Like I said, these are all these

are all real nice horses, horses I would love to own.

But this, this one I don't think is is with the rest of the

horse, the horses. Uncle MO Giant gizmo on the damn

side. What?

You know, man giant. Gizmo Berry lovers or haters?

I wish they would just put this horse back on the turf.

Honestly don't need this horse on the dirt.

Ultimate hater. Just hater of the year again.

He's going to go home and put some water in your mom's dish.

All right, Work is up next. Break it from the board.

Doug O'Neill brings this one in off of a 6 1/2 furlong turf

Sprint because he's Doug O'Neill.

Barry, lover or hater. I, I I'll go ahead and do this.

This is for me. This just some Doug O'Neal

mischief. I'm always in the mood for Doug

O'Neal the Doug O'Neal mischief. I love it.

I think it's great. I think it's fantastic for horse

racing. I don't think the horse has any

chance here, but I love it. Barry, what do you got?

This. I need a an old school flip

phone for this one because yeah, we're hanging up on that.

It's terrible. Josh, what you got on the line

by the time this one gets to the gate, what are we what are we

paying to watch to get this horse to win?

What's the what's the number 70 to 1 even in this field?

I. Mean yeah, maybe, probably I I,

I don't know if I've ever bet a 70 to one horse at it with with

any type of like actual seriousness, but yeah, I, I

don't know, I, I think if this horse was anything we would have

seen this horse at turn way, I think, I think yeah.

You're right about that. So work not gonna work for us.

High camp, 9:00 to 2:00 on the morning line.

Johnny V and Will Walden. This one broke its maiden going

7 at Gulfstream. Josh, what do you make of him?

Love it. Finally, finally a horse I can

say I can say I love. Yeah, this is this is my top

choice in this race. You know, I, I, I love seeing

these lightly raised horses showing up in these mid level

preps. You know, William Walden gets

Johnny V to to come and, and ride this one again.

You know, I, I mean, you look at the trainers in this race.

I mean these guys, Johnny V to ride for any of them.

So the fact he ends up here on the horse he's ridden a couple

times, love to see that. And yeah, you know, I saw the

Instagram on top and I was like, oh, like, I'm, I'm sure all his

progeny are just winning that sprints, right.

You know, Instagram was was a flash in the pan was a really,

really, you know, came out and then, you know, kind of fizzled

a little bit. But you look, he is his prodigy

are 20% routing on the dirt, which is just a body number with

the amount of of of horses that that Instagrams have been out

there running. So I think that this is a horse

that's just going to get better with distance.

Uncle Moe on the bottom. So I mean, I think this horse

takes a step forward and and this is my top pick in this

race. Awesome high camp for you,

Barry. Finally, myself and Josh agree.

I I like high camp here. I am definitely not a hater.

I'm a lover of that one. There's a lot of upside there

and I I think the stretch out makes a lot of sense.

This horse is training well coming into this race and you

know, we'll see. I I mean it's tough when they're

just breaking the maiden and and you see them in stakes company

like this. It's always kind of a crapshoot,

but I I think this horse has run two really solid races and

there's a lot of upside here. So at a price I I like high

camp. Where does that?

Where does that? What's that threshold for you?

4 to 1, seven to two? Yeah, yeah. 4 to 1, four to one.

4 to one. OK all right, OK.

The six is Lock, Stock and Pharaoh, which is not just a

great name, it's also a horse that's performed pretty well in

his first two races. 2 for two, both of those at the

aforementioned Turfway Park. Berry, son of American Pharaoh

here. Nyquist on the damn side.

If you wanted to win the Derby, I guess 15 and 16 is an OK way

to go. What say you about Lock, Stock

and Pharaoh? I like this horse, but not on

the dirt. I I would love to see this horse

run on the turf. I think they're eventually going

to get there once they get thumped on Saturday in this

race, I think they're going to go to the turf, but we'll see.

I I think there is some upside here.

I can't. I don't love this horse and I

don't hate this horse. I I guess I'm somewhere in the

middle. I would have loved to have seen

this one in the Ruby, but I understand trying to push up the

speed here. Josh, I saw your reaction.

I imagine you agree with me on this one.

What do you say about Lock Stock and Ferrell?

Yeah, I I would have thought the same thing.

And you know, especially with this horse, I mean, well this

horse is 1 from off and and on the pace.

But you know, you know what Turfway man, once it starts

getting warm and those those rubber tires get a little get a

little hot down there, speed just tends to carry.

So I would have thought that this horse would have loved to

try and run the Ruby and try and take them wire to wire.

So interesting why why they came here.

But yeah, not for me on the dirt.

I think they're trying to find out and I think what Barry said

is accurate that if they if it doesn't work here he goes runs

in a decent race in Keeneland on the turf.

Like, you know, those Pharaohs do really well on the turf.

And so I would not be surprised if that's the next step for him.

We're going horse by horse. Virginia's for lovers.

Virginia's for haters here on the horse Racing Happy Hour,

Josh Rodriguez and Louis Robot Incredible, The winner of the

Street Sense. Last year's winner of the Street

Sense, of course, was Sovereignty, breaking his maiden

in that race before going on to winning the Kentucky Derby, the

Belmont Stakes and the Traverse Stakes.

Incredible, though in the Holy Bowl ran about as well as I did.

Josh, where do you land on Incredible?

You know at at 1st, at first look I was an absolute hater on

this horse, but that last race was so bad was too bad to

believe. Correct.

I mean, I I didn't have this horse on my ticket at all, but

you know what, I think that this might be a horse that kind of

sneaks in as AB type for me. So you know, I we'll say lover.

We'll say lover at a price on this one.

OK, 12:50 on the line. Barry, what say you about him?

I I liked his form over the mile of Churchill.

Yeah, I I think that's his only saving grace here.

I'm I'm not a lover this horse, but I'm not a hater.

But I I do think there's some upside here.

This horse ran good last year, probably needed that race in the

Holy Bull and it was a tough spot.

There was there was some scratches in there and nearly

got the trip of a lifetime. So I can forgive that effort,

even though, you know, this horse kind of just did the Pepe

Le Pew around the track. But I still think that that

there's some redeeming qualities on this horse.

Stretching out might actually do this horse some good.

But we'll see. I I, I don't like this horse in

particular in this race, but going forward this this horse

might be OK, especially if they run an improved race here.

Yeah, I'd hate to think this horse was a flash in the pan in

that street sense because he was so forceful and passing horses

and finishing the way that he did.

I would love to see that version of Incredibles again because

frankly, we just haven't had a ton of those right in in the in

the Derby trail. And so it would be lovely to see

one on Saturday. They're in Virginia, but

incredible again. 10 to 1 Riley Mott trains there had an

unbelievable 2025. Should be fun to watch him go

forward. Preakness winner Jaime Torres

picks up them out once again. Has been aboard for all four of

his lifetime races. Confessional comes in off of a

similarly disappointing Sam F Davis broke his made not first

asking at Keeneland at 7 furlongs Josh, but then tried an

optional claimer at Gulfstream. Just kind of hasn't been there

yet. You're going to give him a shot

on Saturday. I I'm a lover on this one and I

don't know if I'm just getting fooled here, but I mean that

first effort at Keeneland was just was great and you thought

the Sky's the limit for this horse.

Interestingly, Brad Cox puts him into a race with Lasix and you

know, I obviously backs that effort up runs a runs a nice

second in that race. You nearly won that race was a

nice horse and take him off Lasix run and honestly that you

know, DRF has got that track is kind of a closer type track.

That day on Sam F Davis day, he was up close to the pace and

then just kind of faded. So I don't know if it was just a

really tiring track what was going on with there.

But the fact that Irad gets the board here.

This is a horse that's been running like working very, very

well, just fired a bullet work. I mean, I think there's

something here and I think that maybe he's just found a soft

enough spot where he's going to be able to pick up, you know, 50

points here. So my second choice in this

race. I'm a lover here on

confessional. All right, confessional for you,

Barry Spears. Yeah, I'm a lover.

I, I mean, I, I, I don't think the Lasix was the issue in the

Sam Davis. I think it was the blinkers.

I I don't understand why they took the blinkers off unless

they really didn't think that this horse was ready for that

and they saw this race down the line as as more of the target

than the Sam Davis and that would make sense given the

timing. Getting Irad definitely piques

interest. I'm definitely a lover of this

horse going forward. Who's the best essential quality

going right now? I'm trying to think about that.

I'm trying really, by the way, I'm not not trying to be

negative, but like, you know, oh, it's the Puma, the.

Puma I am. What I'm getting at is we've

already seen the essential qualities get the distance, so

the mile on and they think it'll be a thing for him on Saturday

for sure. We move on in the our Our Lovers

and Haters segment. A very important thing that

Stockton Morgan's definitely wants to be affiliated with.

Ocelli will break from the 9. Joe Ramos in to ride for wit

Beckman. He was aboard on debut for this

horse who has yet to break its Maidenberry.

What do you make of Ocelli in this field?

If I had a door to close right now, I would do it.

This is not a horse that I like at all, sorry.

Shout out to wit, Beckman. Josh, what do you say?

Yeah, I, I'm, I'm against here. I had no interest whatsoever

hater. By the way, we lost Wade Lucas

last year. This is a Wade Lucas esque move.

No, it's a good three-year old I'm going to throw.

This is some Wayne Lucas bleep dude.

And if if wit's going to step in and fill that role for us here

in Kentucky, I'm all about it. I mean, I'll take every single

random runner that he wants to try and fill these gates.

Let's go. I'm in favor of all of it.

You're damn right they do shoot clockers.

But man, who's more of a long shot in here for you guys.

The Doug O'deal trainee in work or Ocelli who's never won a

race? Who who you got is the longer

shot? Who finishes first of those two?

I honestly would take work I think I don't take.

Ocelli now all. Right what a random terrible

question. All right, the tennis clockers

special buried I we're just at clockers corner.

We almost died there in the wind.

I'm just kidding. I'm sorry but.

Not this time. Second off the bench here.

It did break his maiden going 6 1/2 at Ellis last summer before

returning in Oaklawn last time for Rudy Brasay.

Josh, what say you about Clocker Special?

I'm fascinated by this horse. Yeah, not, not for me, although

it is a little interesting seeing this horse cut back to,

well, not cut back but go to one turn right.

You know, it's a fascinating thing about Colonial Downs that

that they go one turn for a mile and 1/8.

So I I wouldn't be surprised if this horse takes a step forward.

But to win this race, not for me.

Barry. See, I have the opposite.

I'm a lover of this horse. I, I, I like that this horse is

lightly raced. I like the fact that they came

off the bench running. Usually that means there's

another step up in improvement. I, I hit horses like this all

the time. I think this horse has has some

upside, especially in this race. I think they could get a good

trip just being forwardly placed and and kind of hanging around.

I don't know what this horse is going to finish like, but I I

think they're going to be much improved.

Their their training like it and I think the the distance isn't

really a concern. I think this horse is is flying

a little bit under the radar. Let's almost get into this.

Let's get into our picks for the day then, Barry, and I'm going

to you first here. You know what?

We got another race to talk about.

Definitely. That's right, Louis.

We sure do move. On two race 10 closer on the

card here at a fun one indeed, an optional claimer 50K is the

claiming price, $85,000 the purse a mile and a 16th on the

dirt here for horses that have never blah blah blah.

All right, so in the closer here, Josh, an interesting one

man Mclean's Rook, I think is really tough of the spot.

Where'd you end up playing it? Yeah, I, I landed I think on the

2 short prices in this race and, and the seven Mcleans Rook and

the eight lure him in. The 8 has got an angle that

we've talked about on this show before.

Very, very good jockey who for some reason is sticking around

for the last race. And Blake Pratt has decided,

hey, you know, I, I guess since I'm here, I might as well

collect another check and, and sits here to ride the 8:00.

You could probably say the same thing for the six of Freedom Rd.

where I ride has ridden his horse a a couple times before.

But you know, I I just really thought that both the seven and

the eight in this race had a a bit of a speed figure advantage

over the rest of the group and just seemed like especially the

seven I thought, you know, just just look like a horse that's

just got a bunch of races that absolutely got this field.

So I'm going with the seven, the 8, the seven, maybe my top pick

just just at the local angle. But I think 8 Loriman makes a

ton of sense in here as well. Yeah, we've got a winner over

the track there, but on the turf side of things, the Colonial,

certainly we've seen Maclean's look really good at Laurel Park.

Berry, Wedge, Land and last one. So you know, I'm going to

reference your statement about the Doug O'Neill shenanigans.

I really like the four doctor Ruben M in this race.

I don't think this horse has actually run a bad race.

I mean look at the races that this horse performed poorly. 1

was against Cole Battle, who at that time was on the rise.

Yes, was it? Yeah, John Hancock and own

Almighty in the Sam Davis, which was a tough race at that point.

Then they went to the the synthetic clear, the horse

wasn't liking that and then they got into a tough heat at

Keeneland where Gun Metal won that race.

That was that was a pretty tough event.

Came off the bench and went into synthetic, which this horse

clearly does not want. Went over to Mahoning Valley and

and ran them off their feet. I think this horse is sitting on

a really good race. Another one honestly there,

there's really not much in here and this horse should stand to

get a really good trip. I don't know what kind of price

we're going to get. Hopefully it is that 8 to 1,

maybe a little bit higher, but I I think this horse has a really

good shot to win this race. Interesting.

Yeah, That is a very deep dive into the mind of Spears

handicapping. That was the good mind of

Spears, not the BS one that you get on Fridays.

No, not that. Yeah, no, you don't want that

crap. Let's.

Give you AI do have one thing I want to jump in and add real

quick if it's still snowing and just or it's just very muddy.

I think you do upgrade a horse like the four who did freak out

freak in the slop last time out. I actually think there's a

couple of bombs in here that you can use if it gets real muddy.

I think the one seeking unity is a horse that's run very, very

well in the slop and then the outside horse and nine power

speakers. Another one.

I mean you look at that Tomlinson figure 435.

Now that's a wet right there. There's no snow Tomlinson,

unfortunately, so I can't tell you I.

Can't tell you. How he's going to run if it's

snowing but. Tomlinson, yeah.

Right, but I I think I think you can get some nice prices in this

last race if if we do get him an off track.

So just just something to keep in mind.

All right, so let's go through your best plays of the day.

Josh, we'll go to you first here.

A pick 5 starting in race 6. So this is the late pick 5, by

the way, really solid take out all the longer wagers there.

Pick fives are 12, excuse me, 15% and the excuse me 12% for

the pick 5 and 15% for the pick 6A non jackpot there.

So a really, really great take out rates.

Josh, they're in both Virginia and Maryland on the pick fives a

a couple wide. You went with the single there

in the middle and dazzling Dame your best bet of the day.

Yeah, I I just really, like I said, I really liked dazzling

Dame in that spot. And, and honestly, like, if you

really want to get cute, I wouldn't, I wouldn't hate keying

around the one Queen Azteca in race 7 as well.

You know, Rudy Broussette's putting the blinkers on.

He's 40% when he puts blinkers on it.

It's just just like an insane gaudy number.

So I, I just think that, you know, maybe there's something

there with Queen Azteca. And like I said, you can do

something in Queen Azteca and the dazzling Dame, maybe even

just a a old pick one on on Queen Azteca at a good price.

We'll pick one talk, Barry. Rudy Broussey, of course, rides

his own horses during the works in the morning, so he knows when

to throw those blinkers on if they happen to be looking around

during workouts. Probably going to be looking

around when there's people at the track.

Barry, your pick 3 here is late in the sequence.

Did you price this out? I'm looking at it like about 45

dollars, 3030 dollars, 30 bucks. Oh yeah, single the first one.

Sorry. Yes.

And so you're going to go ahead and single in that first race in

the 8th with the three horse here.

Of course, that is Bottle of Rouge in the Oaks.

After that though, a little bit more spreading, but not too

much. Yeah, You know, in the ninth

race, I really, you know, honestly, if I'm really going to

try to nail this, I'm going to play a 310 four straight for

like 20 bucks and try to cold deck this this late pick three.

But gotten used to those, those $3 pick threes out at Santa

Anita. So it it I, I, I like those

plays, but I think there there's a way to get around butane.

So we're going to do that and and go with High camp

confessional and Clocker special and then using STEEZ and Doctor

Rubin in the last race. I thought STEEZ is actually

another one that that has some upside is is a real a speedy

horse kind of handy and they can be where they want to be.

And I think that horse has a good shot and we're trying to

beat the favorites there in the 9th and 10th and it it might

pay. OK, we'll see.

But we're going to hit it. So we'll, we'll definitely see.

Jump in and find out with Barry is what he is saying.

That wraps us here on the Horse racing happy hour.

Of course, we'll be back next week.

We'll be back next week and. Santos tomorrow morning at 10:20

ahead of his own trip to the Virginia Derby.

Hey, Matthew, by the way, we love you.

I hope everything's great where you are, my friend, and I hope

you have a spectacular Saturday there at Colonial Downs for

Barry, for Josh. My name is Louis.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.

Have a great night everybody.