Withers, Holy Bull, Lewis | Matthew DeSantis

Matthew DeSantis is his name. He joins us from Naira Bats at

failed to Menace on the socials. Go find him there. 3 Derby preps

tomorrow. How?

How is the weather there at Aqueduct?

It is raining like crazy here, but Matthew, the temperature

starts with A5, so I'm not mad about it.

Well, the temperature up here starts with a four and that is

thrilling for us in New York. There you are little, little

overcast, but we are fast today. We are expecting maybe a little

bit more rain but not quite as much as we initially thought.

So we had some overnight but like I said with the track goes

fast and expecting a really great day of racing tomorrow

too. Matthew DeSantis with us.

As I mentioned from Naira bets at failed to Menace on the

socials, we've got the three Derby preps tomorrow, but I kind

of wanted to start with something a little bit more

generic. Have you seen anyone in the past

couple of weeks that has especially caught your eye,

frankly, either on the Derby or the Oak side?

You know, not really, it's been, it's been interesting.

It's been, you know, one of those things where I'm kind of

waiting for a horse to pop. You know, I feel like we saw

Barnes and the San Vicente really make a statement and that

was certainly one to take notice of.

But I feel like some of these other favorites like a Patch

Adams from last weekend or something like that, you know,

kind of disappointed, quiet sigh, kind of disappointed, you

know, the last week in the preps at Oakland.

So, you know, honestly, one of the horses that might have been

the most impressive over the last couple of weeks, and I

don't know how much his future has, is Cold Battle winning,

winning the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn about a month ago.

And I bring that up because the horse that he beat at the

springboard Miles speaking, came back to win the Southwest.

So clearly that's a pretty good horse and one that has very, you

know, obviously smaller time connections with trainer Lonnie

Briley. But that's a horse that actually

I thought looked really impressive in that race in

Oaklawn. So excited for this weekend

because I think we might have a chance to see a couple of really

big performances that really pop off the screen.

It's interesting you bring up that springboard mile, Wow,

because it might end up being one of those linchpin races this

year the way that the Remsen was last year.

And it's a nice reminder to those of us who do this and

follow it. The way that you and I do,

Matthew, is you got to pay attention to all of it.

You never know where those performances are going to come

from. Right now, I'm being very

serious. And the other one I'll say I

have. I have one that's popped one,

but it's on the Philly side. And her name is Simply Joking.

That's Whit Beckman's horse down there at Fairgrounds.

First time out, started her at a stake and then came back in the

Silver Bullet day last out and just got the lead, kept the

lead. And I get it.

It's early and horses are going to develop and they're going to

close better than they do now. I understand all of it.

And is a mile and an eighth for her.

I don't know. But man, I I think he's got

something there and watching him, watching him, you know,

work with Otto Marie last year, getting to the Derby with him

and those sorts of things, it gives me it gives me hope that

he's able to do it again. Just on the Philly side here.

Yeah, I hear you. Went to a trainer that I find

myself rooting for a lot. Obviously has a ton of

experience being an assistant for Todd Pletcher and Chad

Brown. And someone, like you said last

year had an honor, Marie so understands the the the rigor of

going through these races and getting a horse ready for these

big spots. And yeah, he's got a nice one

down there at the fairgrounds. Was simply joking.

So that's one Again, we'll see what happens when she faces

maybe a little bit more pressure up on the front end.

And, you know, she continues to stretch out.

But yeah, it's definitely one to keep it an eye on them, the

Philly side for sure. And you know, Bob Baffert's got

a couple of running on Sunday in the last for Janice.

You know, you might want to keep an eye on too, in terms of Tenma

and Chipriani. Yep, Tenma returns on Sunday in

that race as well. By the way, just for those

interested, sat down with John Lindo yesterday.

We did the Robert B Lewis card, at least the middle part, the

four stakes out there for Saturday on the Horse Racing

Happy Hour. You're welcome to go check that

out, but we're talking with Matthew DeSantis here on Rabo

and Co on ESPN 681057. Dan Isel at 11 today to talk

about Cal's return to Rupp Arena.

Let's start at your neck of the woods there with the Withers.

This is a mile in an eighth race up there, 20 points for the

Kentucky Derby. Race 7 starts the late pick

three up there. Quarter million bucks in here.

Very rare. David Aragona Co second

favorites at 3:00 to 1:00 with Elko Jim and low quality.

Captain Cook gets the five to two favoritism here after a

massive performance in the slop, but that was in the norm Cassie

Barn. We've moved to Richard Dutrow

here. What do you expect going two

turns with this one? Yeah, I, I don't know.

I mean, it's a practical joke, so I'm always maybe a little

skeptical of about going a mile and an eighth, but I think they

can get that distance if necessary.

Stretching out from 7 furlongs. I do think you can question

whether or not of course, that poke it's made and so

impressively over a sloppy sealed track at 7 furlongs is

going to want to stretch out potentially over a dry track,

but keep Manny Franco aboard, which I think is notable because

there's the Brad Cox horse in this race that Manny is opting

not to run ride. I would imagine you would have a

first chance of first or feudal for Brad Cox up here.

So you know, the fact that it's a Dutcher horse and one that was

privately purchased as well for about $400,000 after that debut

effort. So even though that debut effort

for Norm Cassie was not really that great, then comes back and

wins that second race for, as you mentioned, Rick Dutcher

Junior's barn, which is starting to heat up, I still am going to

try to beat this work. I think there might be a little

bit of a regression after that last race.

All right. Then who is it in this field

that you think could do it? Is it potentially Omaha?

Omaha on the outside? I will.

I think that you can look at the four, the five or the seven and

Omaha. Omaha is the horse that was

closing in Jerome and closing behind slow fractions.

I think that's what's particularly notable is this

horse just makes its run every single time You figure the horse

is going to like the distance 1 going two turns, Laurel going a

mile and a 16th. So the mile and Nate should not

be a problem at all. And the key is just staying

within earshot, quite frankly, of at the beginning of the race

and not falling so far back. I think going two turns might be

a benefit there for Omaha Omaha. I also think a horse like Uncle

Jim for Brad Cox has every chance to move forward this next

time out. Had a little bit of a tough go

last time and ran behind a horse Cyclone State, who we saw come

back to win the Jerome. So you know, was running against

very good quality horses. Went only a 68 fire a little bit

light but I think can move forward.

Then finally, low quality finish, second to the

aforementioned Cold Battle in that Smarty Jones.

Trainer Chris Davis brings this horse up to Aqueduct now to run

them in New York to try to get some more Derby points.

But that one I do have some questions on the mile and mates

with the Motown sire. That one I'm not sure once a

mile on an existence, but we'll see.

Uncle Jim, the Brad Cox training written by Jose Lescato, who has

already won 21 times, a 22% win at Aqueduct to this point in the

meet. Holy Bull will be race 11 in the

start of the late double there at at Gulfstream Park.

Excuse me, a mile and a 16th on the dirt there In this one, we

see that the return of Ferocious who finished fifth in the

Breeders Cup Juvenile at Del Mar.

Obviously a little bit of time off in the Gustavo Delgado barn.

We see some other ones in here though in Guns Loaded coming out

of that mucho Macho Man where he won under Luis Saez, switching

Jock there to Irad Ortiz Junior. I think Louise riding on Tappan

St. in this one. Interesting race here because we

get a bunch coming out of maiden wins and we get a bunch that

have tried other things. How do you look at these races,

Matthew? Do you care about class

experience at this point in the three-year old season, or are

you kind of just looking for the best horse?

You know, I still am looking a little bit of class and and

ferocious has that class edge. I mean, you look at the names

that he's running against since the best of this generation at

this point, Chancellor Patrick and Citizen Bowl and East Ave.

these are excellent horses and he's largely never run a bad

race. Even that Breeders' Cup Juvenile

was not a bad effort concerning how far back he was and God was

the only worst to make up ground late in that race.

I love that they're putting the blinkers on him.

One of the things I said after that Breeders Futurity, I said

get this horse out of trouble. I could get this horse up on the

lead and he's going to do a lot better and I think that's what

they're finally going to do. I think he's probably in a

little bit better conditioning, honestly, than he was leading up

to that Breeders' Cup Juvenile he shipped out to the last

possible day. I'm not sure he was 100% cranked

for that effort. This one, it feels like he's a

little bit more ready, but I'm very high on Tappan St. and I

think you mentioned that Luis Saez off guns Loaded and goes to

Tappan St. for Brad Cox. He wrote them in debut.

Very impressive. That 7th for a long win usually

is an indication that these horses like to continue to

stretch out some nice work leading up to this one.

I'm a little hesitant about guns loaded, who you mentioned,

barely wing that mucho macho man who was able to set everything

up on his the front end his own way, went very slow by church,

by Gulfstream Park standards in that race and almost lost.

You know, yes, picks up I rad, but he's going to face a lot

more pace pressure up front this time going a little bit longer.

So he's a little bit of a play against for me.

I love Burnham Square on the outside in this one, not because

he's on the outside, but rather because you do get Edgard Zayas

and that's a guy. If you look at the numbers with

him, he essentially hits the board.

I I think well over half his race is so 333535 and 241 start

so far. He's just a guy really knows the

course brace is made in the last time going those two turns.

Exact same course by the way, at Gulfstream Park before that

almost did it at the very highest level here at Churchill

Downs in November. And so I think one that's just

building son of Liam's map. We've seen these kind of do lots

of different things, but they went, you know, as soon as they

could second race to a mile and a 16th trying to get the two

turns for that one. So interesting.

At least include for your exact, exact or trifed.

No, I couldn't. Agree more.

I, I think include that one in your horizontals too.

That was just my second choice in that race.

I I like that was a lot can pass.

Other horses can go to the front.

So I, you know, Edgar's got a lot of choices and, and you're

going to get a good price because it's not Brad Cox, it's

not Bill Mott, it's Ian Wilkes who's the trainer down there.

But it's not as much of a big name.

And I I think you're going to get a much more fair price on

offers like Burnham Square. Seven of Ian Wilks starters.

Four wins, 3 seconds. All of them in the top two of

his 22 starters so far. They're at Gulfstream in the

championship meet. The Robert B Lewis will be race

four starts the middle pick four there at Santa Anita tomorrow.

It's a mile on their dirt course.

It is a mile dirt course. So start line, finish line will

be the same for this. It's Baffert, Baffert, Baffert,

Ward and Mendoza in here for you.

How are you approaching this race?

Because I, you know, when I was talking with John Lindo from

Thurber in LA yesterday, we were talking about the pace set up

for this one and how it might be Matic hit Rd. who might be the

only one that's really set up to be off the pace behind, frankly,

three other horses here, Citizen Bull, Rodriguez and Clock Tower.

Are you seeing it that way or are you just going to look

'cause I think I'm starting to lean toward just give me

Rodriguez and give me the the pure talent and speed in a mile

race and just run with that. Get out of my mind the 10

furlongs that we've got to do in three months.

Just worry about tomorrow. Yeah, I, I think especially in

California, how many times do we look on paper and go, well,

there's a lot of speed and then all of a sudden going into the

first turn, there's one horse that's just out up front by

themselves and, you know, two out of off behind.

So and so many times that Santa Anita main track can just carry

speed so well. So I, I tend not to overthink

the speed dynamics in these types of races sometimes.

And Rodriguez super impressive last time out.

One note of caution I will give you was on Lasix for that effort

and is now facing, you know, winners obviously for the first

time. Citizen Bowl really very similar

story to ferocious in the whole has absolutely the best back

class had never lost with jockey Martin Garcia aboard and have

the patented double bullet 6 furlong, 5 furlong workout

pattern. And you see Bob Baffert have for

those big efforts. So I this horse is a physical

beast. I mean when you see Citizen

bullet, he is just a big horse. He's got a big hind and he's got

the ability to really run and endurance.

He's a very impressive horse. But I think Rodriguez is

probably faster in the first term, particularly Hernandez

award. Kind of a yes or no question,

but of course you're welcome to elaborate.

Yes or no. The Kentucky Derby's better when

Bob Baffert is part of the road to the Derby.

Is there an answer beyond yes? Maybe.

Hell yes? Absolutely yes.

Yeah, it is better because a, it brings in more fans, quite

frankly. I mean, he is easily the most

recognizable face in our sport, no matter what you might think

of him. The blue tinted glasses, the,

you know, the white hair. Everybody knows who Bob Baffert

is. And he's got the best horses

every year. And the fact that he doesn't

have to transfer them to barns and do all sorts of other

things, it's better with him in it.

There's more star power with him in it.

And one of the things you and I have talked about is, listen,

the last couple of winners in the Kentucky Derby haven't

really gone on to do big things. One of the things that we see

from Bob Baffert is when his horses win the Derby, they tend

to go on and win other races. And that's a good thing for the

Kentucky Derby, and that's a good thing for a horse racing.

Yeah, I tend to agree with you and I even when you know Barnes,

you know, they ship Barnes into running the maiden special here

because they happen to pay 180% more for maiden races here than

they do in Southern California. And and he runs past Lucas's

horse in in the stretch who's come back and won since then, by

the way, both those horses coming out of that race really,

really. Well, just the general feeling

around it was like, oh, OK, we can have this again.

OK, good. Like this is this is a good

thing to have it. So you can just kind of tell.

I mean, even amongst the folks at Churchill Downs, there was a

real sense of readiness, as far as I can tell, that that people

are ready to move on, you know, close the chapter on that And,

and you know, get the Derby back to, you know, having those kinds

of great contenders in them. And it's, it's been weird

having, you know, the, the frankly, the San Anita Derby

winners we've had in the last couple of years.

It's, it's hard to figure out who they are and what they're,

what they're good at, etcetera. So it'll be hopefully whoever

does end up winning that. And by the way, it doesn't have

to be a Baffert trainee because there are several good 3 year

olds as well in that group out West.

But I think we're going to get a better sense of how good the San

Anita Derby winner is this year. I couldn't agree more.

And I mean, between a horse like barns, between obviously a horse

like Citizen Bowl and Rodriguez, even of course like Romanesque,

I think is a very nice horse that finished second of barns.

And then you have a horse like Journalism who's not a Bob

African horse who I'm very, very high on as well out there.

There's a lot out in California. I think that's the other thing

is honestly the Kentucky Derby the last couple of years felt

like an East Coast Midwest race. There just wasn't a big

California presence in general. You had built the motto with

Stronghold, obviously you had yakking with a couple of horses

that got transferred to him from Baffert, but it just felt like

we were excluding California from this race and it's really

great to have the whole country back in it.

Obviously it's going to help just increase the viewership

that much more this year and the hopefully betting interest not

much more and what is truly the greatest race in our sport.

I do want to defend a little bit who was in the race last year

only because Stronghold did, you know, goes to the Indiana Derby

and Dragoon guard takes him out, you know, this kind of stuff.

So I'd say, you know, it was, it was the quality was east of the

Rockies last year. It's OK to say.

But part of that is the Baffert effect for sure.

And so it's better when, you know, both sides of the Rockies

are represented in that race, as you mentioned, who you got the

Pro Bowl. Oh, the the Pro Bowl.

Jesus, I didn't even know that they're playing that.

You know, I, I, I'm going to take the NFC because I'm a

Philadelphia Eagles. Fan, I was making the Pro Bowl

joke to make the Super Bowl joke.

How you feeling a week out? Nervous, and that is, I'm very

nervous, but I listen, I'm a Philadelphia.

I, I, like I said, lifelong Eagles fan and I, you, I am

accustomed to bad things happening to the team that I

root for as a Philadelphia sports fan.

But you know, honestly, feeling, jokes aside, feeling pretty

good. I've got the offense figured out

a little bit against the Commanders and definitely feel

like they are on the right track heading into Super Bowl 59.

Hey, if it turns into a track meet, you've got Saquon Barkley

on your team, so you might be. OK, we got A.J.

Brown, we got Devante Smith, we got, yeah, we, we got a squad.

So football. Talk dragon horse racing, say.

But you like that, Zach Antrell. I know you like that.

How about that little eagles talk?

Do you love the mayor of Philadelphia not knowing how to

spell Eagles? That's the most Philadelphia

thing I've seen all year. That's I, I love everything

about it. It speaks to the quality of the

Philadelphia schooling system that it speaks to.

It speaks to just the overall insanity that we have and just a

bunch of mongos that root for the eagles and just, you know,

the guy pushing the shopping cart through the parking lot

while roasting a pig. I mean, it's just said, listen,

we are caricatures of ourselves. And that's The thing is like, I

know on camera I'm very dressed up and I have a little cap and I

have a tie and it's and it looks all very nice.

If you ever seen me root for a sports team, you would think I'm

a raving lunatic. So it is we we all have that

inside of us. And it was great to see.

Yeah, that's when I saw that. I was like, those are my people.

The good thing around here is that Kentucky basketball fans,

Louisville fans, they're all, they're all very sane people,

very rational. Yeah, very rational.

Very. Kind, it's great.

It's great. To never overreact or anything,

yeah. At Failed to Menace if you want

to find our guy Matthew DeSantis on Twitter, of course, at Naira

bets as well for all of his content.

Tons of stuff up right now at their YouTube page as well

previewing all of those races. Matthew, we appreciate you buddy

and I'm sure we will talk very soon.

Absolutely. So good talking to you, Louis.

All right, Matthew.