Withers, SF Davis, & El Camino Real – Matt Dinerman & The Sniper join

All right, welcome to another episode of the horses and happy

hour is on the Derby Trail and we're going to be brought to you

by Special beer, the Italian style logger Gianna.

My butcher town are worried, not Pub, which I'm really richer

sound Brewing. How about that guy, Andy?

How about that? There's Allen hear about your

got Andy after Sweeney's like it's not that Andy.

It's at the brewery. I know I know.

No. No the Brewer and he had butcher

town and I holds a place. I understand, I understand

Andrew. Yes, Andiamo friends.

He's running this week. I thought we'd start with the

Italian pilsner you'll give it a try.

I've already tried it. What's your?

Give us a letter grade there. Oh uh glass!

Yes Steven I like it actually. I like it.

There's no real aftertaste. I mean it's nice and refreshing

for a light year. It's really it's really good.

Got that Peroni field in it. Yeah, I'm digging it huh?

Yeah. What are you is this what your

style of beer? Like what is your last year?

This is it Milagro pilsner guy, for sure.

What is your cheap beer of choice?

I know you told us this before on the show I've got a couple if

it's if it's if I'm doing phone cal, I'm going Stroh's, if I'm

going like collar and going Bush, hydros Alex from Stroh's

the gold. Retriever dog or whatever it was

that ha ha ha. Well yeah I bought I've had many

to appearance do lights. Women act producers act for sure

because that was the dirty 30 and Bloomington we were there.

So I don't know that Astros the funny thing about tonight.

So I get a text from my neighbor, who is in the booze

Biz. He's like, hey man.

I've got some very, very, very single single malt.

If you want to try it and in my neighborhood that means just

come on over. Don't ask just show up.

So I before I came Hoosier I tried three different $1000

couches. Oh, all right.

So your boys in a mood. Let's go.

Okay, he drove here as well. Everybody know that.

Um, yeah, so so try and I didn't say chug, come on, we are here

on, by the way Coast to Coast. I'm hosting a show.

Are we liking to pull the string on the Louis?

Just let him go or what? I mean, it's too late

Coast-to-Coast. Show I taped with our guy.

Matt determined earlier today. He'll jump on.

Yes, needless dispersion, I agree.

We thank you very much. It's not me.

This was freshman zag to talk about, by the way, when we

start, as a Believer bow show, Number one, the El Camino Real

Derby was not a win a name for the Preakness and number two, it

was not a derby prep in its now it's both.

So I don't know what my folks with her is what I thought.

It wasn't waiting around for the pregnant.

Was it a derby? But not a Preakness.

I thought it was a previous but not a derby.

Okay. All right.

This is our fourth time and it is already, yes, right.

And so, so that's fun. This will be Matt sixth, El

Camino Real Derby, the Royal path.

If you will, is literally the name of the race and our guide,

very Spears. The urban handicapper the sniper

whenever you want to Him. He'll join us at 8:30, he's

going to be on track of Tampa, covering the cmf Davis.

For the tip today, folks on TV, just really say, Matt Davis is

Suncoast, is better raised. Some Coast is awesome.

There's two ladies in that race that are one of them's Triple

Crown nominated. One of them isn't?

I think it will surprise people to learn which one Julia shining

is true economy. How about that?

What's in a while Pletcher? Gives you the clues?

Yeah, all right. Somebody awesome.

I agree. I mean, I think you get to legit

Oaks contenders going head-to-head this early in the

rail. I mean, it's gonna be a great

race on the first try. Didn't think after last year

Mike that we would get this kind of contingent for the Oaks

again, for a couple of years and we're getting a runaway, by the

way. Just just so people know about

the Suncoast Nest actually won the Sun comes last year.

I mean, this is, this is a major major Oaks race.

It's always kind of fun to see how the Oaks Trail can differ,

from the Derby Trail. Like, you know, the Arkansas.

For example, the Arkansas path to the Oaks is like the probably

the most serious path to the Oaks.

I guess Arkansas is probably of Florida is for the boys.

Yeah. Before the Derby is a really,

really good indicator of his vanity does probably about the

California is probably about the same for both.

I was going to say, I think the Florida Senator about the same.

Next level is saying the Louisiana Derby or the Arkansas

Derby. Yeah, that's right.

Especially recently, the wood was, but it's been 20 years

since it was relevant as a derby prep, was the last time, at

least us to predict her. What's up?

When's the last time you had wood?

I'd like five seconds ago to start the show.

I had some some ride while I'm actually married.

That's the kind of stuff you get here in the horse race.

And happy are the kind of in-depth.

So, let's let's go ahead high-level discourse that we

bring in no one else does. Essentially, is what it is?

Yeah, well, how are you made fun of today for brunch riding

shotgun in your van. So that's, you know, that's what

is it? Yeah, by the way, it was in my

station wagon. That's right.

Lex. Yeah.

Station wagon. How about that?

Mike was driving the station wagon when the three of us

almost died. How about that?

Almost Away Breeders Cup. Yes.

I mean if you have ever seen the headlights of a large pickup

truck and Kentucky coming toward you, let me tell you that's an

experience that it makes you want to break.

Like that's a hashtag drink every time.

So, the last time we were here, I had a Flash before my eyes.

It's only happen to me right there.

You know, I had to trim the beard though, by the way, Louis,

because we're exactly our sort of look a little too much alike.

So Zach, it's bad for one of you and I'm going to let you figure

it out. Yeah.

It's by the way in the meeting we had the other night, they did

comment and say wow it's a queue of a really nice beard so they

didn't say that about Mike. All right, let's go.

All right, let's take a little Holy Bull.

We're going to see now I believe that one of us talked about it.

This winter on the show. Oh you rotten Rock.

Rocky can hear shines in the Holy Bull and let go in the red

colors as they run to the top of the stretch, it's rocket tan who

comes away with the lead for the outside shadow dragon.

With an upset threat Cyclone. Mischief needs to do better than

that Legacy aisle is next in there, at the top of the stretch

rocket can tries to finish it up, shadow dragon, take same

16th to go. It's Rakuten responding on the

outside and Shadow Dragon, they come to the Finish, its Bill

Mott. It's Junior albarado again.

It's rocket. All right.

So Rocky can wins the Holy Bull. I think there's two stories

here. Obviously, the first story being

that we just, we see kind of Dale, Romans horse kind of just

not show up when we were kind of hoping that he would be back.

I think you know it's good for horse racing to be back and for

him to be involved at least I don't more people involved.

Yeah sure. I will say that he looked really

good man. That dudes lost a ton of weight.

Over 100 pounds. Yeah, it's crazy.

So I actually heard him on another program the other day

and he said something like he's quit drinking and they made the

comment. Well, if you know, your horse

ends up winning the Derby, will you have a drink and go see out,

by the way rocket cancer kind of horse that you look for on the

Derby Trail. Maiden last year comes back and

open company. Loses goes second, but every

race, all three of them going to turns.

They've never knock on two terms of this horse.

It's an Infamous gif. If?

You get Belmont Junior Alvarado by the way.

That's, that's back-to-back weekends, that's art collector

and then it's Rocky. Can that guys feeling it right

now? He's got a horse in the Pelican

at a that we're going to talk about that.

I really trust you and you're on.

So he's gonna be able to Tampa this weekend, but it's the kind

of horse. You're seeing develop right

front of our eyes. Loves the two turns has tons of

experience at it already. So we'll definitely be seeing

this horse in the Florida Derby coming up later.

But I mean like I mean that's the kind of performance in

February where you go okay, this this horse figured it out.

Right? Because he started to ask the

horse to go in the turn. The horse was like, oh yeah, of

course, no problem. I'll pass all these horses.

And that's, that's the mentality of the young three-year-old.

Yeah, I mean, again, I'm looking for Style here.

That's probably the thing I'm looking for the most.

And, and I want to see pace and I want to see what I think the

competition is. I don't know if the competition

this race was fantastic, but Rocky can't definitely did what

he was supposed to. He stalked the entire way,

really, even though they had him as being in fifth place of the

half-mile who was only a With or Trudeau off the lead.

It wasn't like he was far back there and he came through and

ran the ran the race. You'd expect to see from a Derby

winner. Now, do I think he's at everyone

or no, do I think this is a horse that could surprise some

people and hit the board at a, at a 12:45.

Probably is where this horse could probably end up.

Absolutely. And it could be a fifteen to

Twenty. One Shot.

We'll see what happens. Based on the breeding in the

training, man. I don't know.

I might disagree with you there. I think there's a chance that

this is the horse. He's 45 21 in the Florida Derby,

any wins. And then we're talking about a

very different way. Well if he wins the Florida

Derby, there's no question. We talked about him differently.

My question is, does he does? He went if he's wins the Florida

Derby, we're talking about him. As, you know, he started to hit

all the, you know, going back to the, the strike system, which I

love, which is not been very relevant lately.

I don't, at least, I don't think so.

Well obviously struggling, you expect him to run back and found

to be with? Yeah, I would think so.

Yeah, right. Yeah, and but we'll have some

new Shooters start coming through that that Pike review,

right? So we'll send this kind of see

how that all shakes out. If he went, I have a feeling

that this is a horse that probably, it's the board in the

Florida Derby and that's where I think he kind of ends up at

12:45 Chuckles, 20 points. If he can finish second or third

evens in in the prime of Youth always and yeah, he's at 40 35

points, right? Something like that.

And then if he can hit the board again in the Florida Derby, he's

obviously and safely and correctly.

So, where are you at, then? On the On leaning with the

Derby, the Derby winner that you're gonna bet on needs to be

undefeated as a three year old. I think that's still relevant.

I think that if you can win your two races leading in or three

races leading, I think it's relevant.

And I think I've always liked rocket can.

If he goes undefeated as a three-year-old coming down the

stretch, like, you just mentioned that.

Matt speaking, go bowling ball. If you can sweep the floor

races, that's incredible and he's probably not going to do

it, right. He's probably not going to do

it. I understand that.

But what I'm saying is if he even hits the board in all three

and or wins two of the three, I'm going to take him pretty

seriously. When he gets up here to

Kentucky. I right now, I, if I had

rankings for the Derby, I would have him ahead of instant

coffee. For example, I would because of

the running style, I just think it's much more playable being a

stalker and being able to pounce like that, that that turn a foot

in the term. The final turn to me, speaks to

a horse that is going to be able to get that tent for a long

distance, and be comfortable doing it.

And I I just think right now, if we're talking about jockeys in

2023, that are capable of winning the Derby and the list

is probably 10, 12 guys, Junior Alvarado's made it on that list

and I think he's proven that the last couple of weeks at culture,

100%. Yeah, 100% that right on the

right on Art collector was perfect.

I mean legit perfect in that field with the pace set up the

whole thing could not have been better out of him so now he's

writing as well as anyone. Now, I do think the gap between

Arabian Night, I hear you. Can I hear is significant?

So of course we gotta we don't know what batter horses were

going to see if any will find out sooner or later telling you

got 19 days till those horses got to be moved or a Court

ruling made. So that ago.

Well what do you think? How long do you think I judge

takes? I think it's close of business

tomorrow. Oh, really?

You have some inside knowledge on that?

I think that that judge knows the timeline that's been put out

there. That's what, that's what makes

me think it's gonna be closer to the end of the deadline though.

Okay, fair enough, you know, they'll play the NCAA rule.

Let me get away. Sweat.

Tell me now the old sanctioned by not sanctioning.

Right? Right, that's it. 100%.

All right, so let's we're going to move on then.

I think we've I don't want to beat that horse.

We got three minutes to talk about this on strepsils.

All right, let's talk about Let's go down to the red carpet

carpet, ready in the Ford. Gal.

I'd undervalued asset is now in the second back to third twice.

As sweet atomically is being asked a quick and while racing

forth and angling to the clear for a run Positano.

Sunset is next, an apropos and they're at the top of this

Ridge, the opening half was 45 and for Luis saez asking red

carpet ready to kick away and she's doing just that with an

eighth of a mile to go undervalued asset.

Second anatomically is down the stairs inside but with a 16th to

go red carpet-ready indeed. She's looking good.

She wins by three. In the end, undervalued asset

was second. And remember who won this race.

Two years ago who won the forward.

Gal, two years ago, girl know that.

She'll Sasha, do, you know, the longest race she won in her

life, seven, furlongs, am I okay at Belmont, one turn.

All right. I think red carpet-ready is

going to get nowhere near the Kentucky.

Oaks, okay. I I really don't understand the

path to the Oaks at all. I don't know what they're doing.

They're running two turns in New York in the fall and then

they're running seven furlongs for 20 points, a Gulfstream Park

there is just that as big of a deal they just don't put as much

thought process into it as they do the Derby.

Well that's why they don't have a triple crown for the for the

girls, you know. Okay.

That's just so so the athletes that that sticker on the longest

in our sport, we don't care about just checking you know

that's what you and I feel that way.

Okay. Just checking but that's not how

the sport feels. Be better.

Churchill Downs, be better, that's why I agree.

The finger literally, I we need to be way better on the Oaks

Trail than we are because it's not 20 points for a seven for a

long race. In February is embarrassing, be

better. So our boy, Matt Danner man at

Golden Gate Fields who usually would come on the on the show to

talk about the El Camino, Real dirty, real big-time, this, just

because, you know, that's what post-op.

And even though, like we're the ones who, you know, like just

helped him come to prominence and where the whole reason why

he's popular right now but he'll be the next track announcer

Delmar correct. It will be So Louis had to sit

down with him earlier today to kind of get some thoughts on the

big day at Golden Gate Fields. So we're going to play that

right now for you. Aren't welcome in special tapes

Edition horse racing, happy hour with the man who's been on this

show. As much as anyone whose name is

Matt, gentlemen, he is out there on the, on the Albany side of

the bridge and the Bay Area. Matt, how are you?

I'm great Louis. How are you doing?

I'm I'm very good. I have to say, I am very pleased

to see your featured race on Saturday, your featured.

This is your future three-year-old race of the Year

know. Absolutely.

It is its signature races. I mean, every year it's a very

prestigious race. So, yeah, yeah, really.

Not only just a big three-year-old race but just one

of the big races of the year for us really here at Golden Gate.

Yeah. So the El Camino Real derby win

in for a spot at Pimlico in the Preakness, of course.

And hey, I love it. Popped up on the Derby Trail,

man. Getting 10 points out of that as

well. That's pretty cool.

Yeah, 10-point, Kentucky Derby race and the Preakness

incentive. We saw Rombauer use it.

He won the El Camino Real Derby and he came back actually to win

the Preakness. All-expenses-paid trip there so

you get to ship it. The entry fee, there is none.

You they pay for your shipping everything.

So it's a good incentive and obviously, if you want to start

things off the right way, going a mile and an eighth, which is

something not a race, really that we don't see that too many

races at the moment that arm. Lemonade for the three year

olds. A lot of them are my own a 16th.

So if you want to start out going a mile and an eighth, for

example, you get that opportunity and if you win, you

get 10, Kentucky Derby points. So a lot of incentives with this

race for sure. Yeah, plus nothing wrong with a

hundred thousand dollars per. So there you go.

We do have a couple of Triple Crown nominated horses on

shockingly. They are from the Starlight

group with Bob baffert. They are going to Anchor.

Each side of the group there between Gilmore who of course is

coming out of made. Away win at La Salle.

We see Bob try to ship a fair number of courses from La Salle

to Golden Gate. Frankly we see a lot of

strippers between those two tracks depending on the time of

year. So it's not unusual that a horse

would do well there, and then make his way up and no larb or

is coming up out of a Knoll Arbor?

Is that what? You're calling that horse?

I think so. I still need to do my homework.

To try to go the mile and an eighth here.

Bob baffert terrible event. Of course a 27% it's totally

into that. Do you like the one-mile?

Are you a guy that likes the to turn experience coming into a

race? Like that will you lean more on

a Gilmore for that reason? I think I'm going a mile and an

eighth. I would like to see a horse that

has to turn experience. I think going on Mi might be a

little bit easier on horses with a bob baffert training.

He I think it might in a way be a little bit different.

You have to sort of have confidence that a horse like

Like that is in the right spot. And obviously, Bob must think

this horse wants to go a mile and an eighth, or he wouldn't be

putting them into re so. But but generally, yeah, I would

rather see a horse in this particular race going, a mile

and an eighth I'd rather see them have a little bit of to

turn experience. Like we have a horse named

Harrison was a very nice horse who's in this race but he's only

run six furlongs. So it's not going to be an easy

task for a horse like that to stretch out, three extra,

furlongs and be proven Routers and nice routers at that.

I'm interested in this race mad because you know, obviously

you're going to get some locals that do the track and know the

surface then, obviously you're going to have those those

frankly, I mean a horse like Gilmore comes in with with

numbers that make sense that this could be the horse that is

going to be the best in the field.

I imagined when the morning lines come out that he'll be

either the favorite or right there.

What do you lean on here? Have you seen In the last couple

of years. How many, by the way, how many

easy RDS have you called now? I've called 5, this will be my

sixth. Look at first, the first dear, I

called El Camino, Real Derby. A Philly actually one pave at

the time. We didn't have the Preakness

incentive, right? Incidentally trained by Michael

McCarthy who also trained Rombauer as we mentioned.

And then you know, most recently we saw Blackadder for the

Starlight racing group and Bob baffert win.

And We'll talk about that in a little bit here, but yeah, it's

been a good run. El Camino De I mean it's a fun

day at the track every day and people are really excited and

you get a lot of coverage and we're going to have a lot of

coverage this year as well. The real that's great.

Yeah. Um you know I you know you got

other horses you know a couple of them have been running up

there change the chaos happy does you can have possible Rondo

in this in this race as well. They've kind of been beating

each other up with these races right?

You know and they in the figurative sense of course.

So you know kind of Of switching, who gets to win those

races. All those all those local ones?

Do you think there's one that stands out to you?

I wouldn't say that there's a standout.

I think there are a couple that are pretty evenly matched.

I definitely think on class past the Rando has the class

Advantage. He's a multiple cowbridge Stakes

Winner, he obviously likes this track.

I think he's going to love a mile and an eighth, but I

actually picked chase. The chaos.

Is my top pick in this race hopeful to know.

I think, I think Gilmore is the one to beat.

I think no. Larbre for examples of total

play against on the other hand, I think Gilmore is a Eight

percent use. I think he's probably going to

be favored and I think he's going to really like a mile and

an eighth, I think he's really gonna like the to Peta.

He's by twirling candy was very successful on synthetic surfaces

but she's the chaos is a horse that just keeps getting better

for trainer Ed mode. Your Junior for those who know

Ed, you probably know him from training stiletto.

Boy, who ran third in the Pegasus.

I actually saw him yesterday in the barn and Chase.

The chaos is a horse that just continues to improve.

He seems to just Thrive over this synthetic.

All right, well, we lost we lost the the stream there.

I don't know why. I don't know the exact drop Zach

might have dropped, so, you know, we'll see what happened.

Okay, yeah. But you know, that's okay.

So, you know, some good stuff there for our man from and Matt.

Damon, what did or your book essentially his?

Yeah. Essentially, his comment was the

most likely winner and Gilmore, sure.

But if you're going to use a local, if you go to lose a local

horse, chase the chaos as play. You get Armando.

I use those a very fine job. Aki in the Bay Area.

Really knows the track knows as Matt described later on.

He knows how to be patient at that track and it mats

convinced. And in frankly, I got no reason

to doubt him. He thinks one of the the reasons

that jockeys come out of Northern California, come out of

the Bay Area at Golden Gate, and then translate so well, in other

places is because they learned that patience.

And so, you see a Juan Hernandez who was just terrific right now

in Southern California, came out of the Bay Area has one This

race as a jockey, right? And so he's really convinced

that there's something to the Essentially, the ability to be

patient to know the timing to know the course that way for

these horses, you know, we've talked about it before and

there's something about this surface that lends itself to

being really productive. Once you get to Pimlico Zack,

you can turn that off and it's all right.

And the, you know, he gets into it, you know, he thinks if you

wanted a longer shot, by the way, harson who's going to be

the final one right now is not much a long shot but everyone.

Okay. Yeah, the lines were not when I

taped it with Matt. And so, actually stretching out

Gilmore's. The third choice behind Sheikh

behind, chase the chaos and behind pass.

A Rondo. Has a rhombus is a two-to-one.

Favorite chase. The chaos is at 321 and

Gilmore's a four to one, okay? So Gilmore's 421 pounds at leap

out of it. Yeah.

And I mean saying pound the bleep out of it.

Here's another prediction. That's not going to happen and

so that no way back Michael. Order one, no way.

There's no way. And if you can get chased the

chaos at like 4 or 5 2, 1 3, 2, 1, 3 0, I know, but he's gonna

move. Yeah, wow, that's stunning.

Okay? So something people need to know

if you don't follow West Coast Racing intimately, as far as

especially at night, or in thousand-yard races or four, and

a half hour, long races, whatever at low cell.

The conversion rate back and forth between Golden Gate and

low cell is super high. So it makes sense.

That Bob baffert would grab his best to Turner from La Salle and

send them up for this race. I get it.

He's only one at the main level rocket can, by the way, had only

one of the main level before he won the holy volt, that means

nothing with young three-year-olds.

Remember they were to literally 39 days ago.

That's the point of this. Okay.

Correct. And so and frankly, a lot of

these were born at a point where they're not.

I mean, Gilmore was born in a Oh, he's not three.

I mean technically. And so that's my point here.

I would, if I were a betting, a longer sequence here and the

lake pick by this really interesting at this, at this

juncture because the last race is a total crapshoot and races

five and six are the highest level optional climber that they

have a Golden Gate smaller Fields but a pretty playful

sequence with a decent take out, right?

And so if you're looking at that, that you're going to have

to go shorter in this race because there are, I think More

likely winners, do it. If pass a rando is the is the 21

is the favorite here and because of the Gold Rush, mmm-hmm I

would leave out, that's what they pass Rondo out.

I would if that's the favorite on the morning line because it's

buried in the sequence in the fourth race, I would leave that

horse out for Steve specs. Who's a very?

I mean I'll find Tramp nothing wrong 24 percent last year hits

about that, number Golden, Gate key and And and Frank Alvarado

hit at 28% at Golden Gate. There's your opportunity to skip

a very high-level horse in this race.

Play the one in the to move on. You know what?

I think we should do really. We should start any time and I

know you didn't like really besmirch him here.

You didn't besmirching. But we have besmirched horses

horses in the past and always something every time that

happens. What have the horse goes all,

they went for sure. Yeah.

So what Shelly box on the horse that we must merge.

No, I think we should invite the trainer on her service merch.

Just like quickly, shame us, like, you just like give them

there. Any way I can meet ya at let him

win and then just give them 30 seconds to publicly shame us.

They can just say whatever they want.

You know, I think that's what would you just Good.

How do you love me? Yeah, but even I mean, I think

the reason he talked about a horse and you mentioned that

horse being 5 and 1 billion times, Georgie the third is on

that horse, and he's a local 21%, he's going to be leading

Rider, they're probably, you know, a horse like in honor of

autism is coming out of the Jonathan Wong.

Barn, his head trainer Francisco is out there and is still Wong.

Has moved his family to Kentucky and he's still hitting it. 26

percent this week that horse and he spread the word by the way.

I mean that means Francisco. Doing the damn thing, right?

And so, that's the point once in a while.

It is the assistant trainer that makes the number wherever they

are and even though the Wong Barnes a little bit smaller, it

doesn't mean they're not hitting and so on. for me, that's if you

want a long shot here, in honor of autism as we play, Alright,

let's talk about the withers real quick.

Only we can why not let her mother away?

All right. Delayed by weather until this

week. It's stunning that it doesn't

get delayed more often. By the way, it really gives its

high because the drama kidding early, early, February, who

knows? Ya Rabbi we never know what

we're going to get here. Like, just today, we woke up

here, we woke up, it was 60 and then these, like, winds and

rain. And I got up at quarter of 5:00

today to finish some stuff up and it was 66 degrees up, right?

And when we went to bed, by the way, it was not warm.

No. But you're warmed up overnight.

Yeah, so weird. So, so freaking weird.

It was windy like it should be for a day that was 66 and from

work. So imagine this Lou we got a

heavy well actually it's not a heavy favorite.

We got to to heavy favorites in this race.

Yeah, one of the Blackhawks worse, imagine that in New York

so what Franco aboard? Hit the other cylinder ice.

I don't know how she's still training their.

I don't understand rules. So, so yeah.

So what do you make of this this, you know, almost match?

Race between these two horses. I know we've got another horse

in their junk fourroux junk Pharrell.

That is at a 4 to 1, but it really seems to kind of come

down to those those to hear. What are your thoughts that I

would bet young 4001 from? Yeah, that's where I would go.

Is that nearly a great rap name like if you're a rapper,

wouldn't Jungfrau? Yeah, I think that's fantastic.

You throw out here the young, which for Colt, might not be a

great German name here but I always The only interesting

thing is, they have the horse training in Florida.

Brakes hiss made in a Gulfstream, bringing them up to

Aqueduct. For this one did run an aqueduct

before was okay. And only broke his made because

the disqualification, but it's Triple Crown nominated.

Like I said, Son of arrogate. We've seen the irrigates do

really, really well. I think there's a chance Mike

that the era Gates We look back and that's one of the Lost

opportunities of a horse that you are way too young and stud

unfortunately. And so I think that's actually

the case but I think your horse the weekend is in this race has

enough Mike at a really good price my horse at the weekend.

Yeah and the 7th hole there is that not a Andiamo offering.

Say you mean the reason that I got butcher Town Brewing, small

batch craft beer to hook us up with the Italian style logger,

which is, by the way 12:48 and offerings a so free money free.

Free money, people, free money absolutely free money.

Even if the horse is not won, since August of 2012, play

buddy. Let's go free money.

By the way, Arctic air Gates, is in this race.

What we'll talk about the same at Davis later and he'll come up

again. As to why the favorites going to

win in that race? The horse goes back out of the

Jerome lost by half a length of living night and then you do get

You know, the other if you wanted actually, I mean, to be

fair, if you wanted a horse coming out of the Jerome that

ran reasonably, okay? Just faded at the end, General

Banker, the five was like like 922, no, no, five 2's, he is me

going off in the Jerome, that was just one turn.

Maybe the two terms of work out here, but I, I don't know.

I think the one in the for your place here, for sure.

And then the Three, maybe, whoa, don't let anybody on the show,

I'll tell you what. All right, our goddess divers

here is things. Barry Spears, the urban

handicapper on Twitter, I mean, we're talking about the, I'm

sure you've looked at it, we're talking about the with, I'm

loving the Hat, by the way, get ready for, get ready for the

Davis. You'll see him Trackside for the

coverage there. I love.

This is very spigot it open. I have covered the Tampa Bay

Derby and do a good job and the Tampa Bay's like well we gotta

prep for the Tampa Bay Derby. Why don't we have Barry in for

that as well? See, my man is just figuring out

like you do good one time you do well and then you move on to get

two races. The next year next you're going

to build on this man. It's going to be really think

I'll be been you doing okay. Yeah man you know trying to keep

this Florida cold with her off my back but what How cold?

Yeah, 6000 it was 66 here today so when your father that's nice.

It is nice. It looks nice.

I was like, like at 3:00 in the morning, you know?

So when I took my kids to schools, like 64 years.

Yeah. All right.

So I'm, you know, we're looking at this Withers.

I mean, are you are you a fan of any of the favorites here?

Is Arctic arrogance or hit show a favorite for you?

In this racer is no especially this time of year, you know like

a source of this go in and out of form.

You know, you'll see, even even the better horses sometimes just

in a lot of these properties, just run a bad race.

For, who knows, what reason? Then they're back the same way

they were before, so it just saw the whole thing.

Yeah, it's just tough to take short prices and races like

these, even though lately they've been winning but

hopefully that that Trend see other direction for the Bettors

at least. All right, well let's talk to a

man, I gotta get my Withers his 30 because hey, I mean this has

been around since 1874, right? Is this the second oldest race

in the United States? I can't know.

I don't think so. Where is this way out?

There's like top itself there. Yes, one of the oldest races but

of course, it hasn't really been relevant for a long time, but

listen to some of these horses that have won this race, Sir,

Barton ack, ack, Manowar, native dancer.

Basically if you have a Street and Lexington named after you ha

ha ha more than likely and actually Sir, Barton won, the

Derby, won the Preakness Stakes, then one the withers before

winning Being the Belmont Stakes said when you say actually be

after the after the Preakness to complete the triple crown and

Count Fleet then did the exact same thing.

So, native dancer, I mean, just some incredible horses of one,

this obviously lately hasn't been as as featuring top horses

as much as it did in the past. But yeah, yeah, yeah.

It's right now, we go to know once in a while.

There's a chance you'll get frozen out of running it, so

they had to move it. A weeks of might have something

to do it when you know what? You're gonna get at Gulfstream.

Let's go down, man. Let's What's on Coast?

Let's talk. Let's talk Davis, man.

Mike, and I are of the opinion if you want to see the stars of

the weekend. You watch the Suncoast.

How do you feel about that? Yeah, it's really good race.

You know, it doesn't have well, it has these star, but not a

star-studded field, but Wonder Wheel, looks like Far and Away

better than the rest of the horses in the field.

Oh wow. Fan of Julia's shine.

Being actually, I don't think he's that quick.

I she's gotta do some more for me before.

I give her a shot. But, yeah, I think Wonder Wheel

and a couple of long shots. Actually.

Don't look too bad fast-tracked. Horse from the Mid-Atlantic

circuit. Yeah doesn't look too bad has

had some experience in sticks company so that's a plus and you

know, coming off a layoff like that.

Anything can happen. The horse can improve for sure

so I just don't want Julia shining finish second.

That's really where I'm at with it.

Anybody but her your sequence here, what our will is your is

would be a solid. Be a little bit, you know about

the weather. I always taught, you know,

whatever. I see rain in the forecast in

Florida and I see like 30% to me.

That means it's going to rain for 30 minutes.

What what's your expectation for press?

Is that essentially what? It's just going to be that

afternoon, right? And that happens in Florida.

They're predicting like more thunderstorms.

Probably like 6:00 7:00. So okay, we might get sprinkles

throughout the day but I don't think it's going to be, it's

really good. Not going to affect like the

conditions at all as far as you know, the surfaces.

Should be all good. Okay, yeah.

All right. And then going on to the Davis

man. I mean this is a It's an

interesting field day, Mike who's come out of the Davis

before. Is there a signature winter

coming out of here? Because, you know, we've we've

seen that, the Tampa Bay Derby can be a pretty serious

indicator of good horses and maybe not for the Triple Crown

Trail but for you know later success in the three-year-old

season four-year-old season, that kind of thing.

So tons of Triple Crown nominated horse is made with all

the Exotic. Alright, so that's what hit the

board and everything. He's the governor of my

generation. That's right.

We're cracking. Well, we open one year, we're

actually flame only one and two thousand, two thousand eighteen.

But Captain, we came in second, you will also have to be a great

Sprinter and then Vino Rosso came in third.

So that was a, that's a pretty good, feel wrong.

That's and then the winner last year even though didn't have a

greater career ended up being a great Turf, horse with classic

Causeway, so that's not there it is.

Thank you. Yeah.

I mean, I think that's where everyone wondering.

Yeah. So there's some horses who have

come out of this Race. I guess they're probably had

more of some staying power. Then you know, then just racing

is the three old and going to stud.

So I think I felt as good for any horses I did for classic

Causeway last year that they actually figured out what that

horse wanted to do so and he got out front stayed out front

performed on the grass of those. It was nice.

Who would you lay down here? Are you trying to beat the

favorite here? Yes.

Yeah. Okay.

I don't like that horse at all. I don't know.

These races are usually really tough because you're getting

horses that are you know, first second time off the layoff and

you know, it's hard to see what kind of improvement they're

going to have from their two-year-old season.

So you know these horses just improved so fast that it's hard

to take a short price. I mean, I just don't feel right

taking a short price when I can see everybody's kind of doing

the same thing. It's a matter of who.

Just going to improve more, and if you can predict that you're

going to, you're going to do. Well, that being said, horse

like, Groveland really caught my attention.

Once once that horse went to turns, just dramatic

Improvement, speed, figure was and everything.

So I think that can continue which will be a good thing.

Obviously, for that horse, you know, in good hands, good

connections. Got a local horse to knows.

The course ready to get a local. Doctor knows the course as well,

right? Yeah, exactly.

Champions dream was another, that that kind of stood out to

me, that, that could improve off of that, January, 14th race,

going seven in the Pasco. And then now stretching out.

I think that's what this horse wants to do.

I mean, it's justifies with the stretch out makes sense.

In that case, for sure. What is it about?

WL you don't like. Is it more just the wet form or

what? I think that that December 3rd.

Race was a little overstated. Okay.

In this, in the speed figures and such, I don't think that

race was that great? I mean, the buyer was a 90 and I

don't think it was that fast. God, I really don't care right,

by the way. That means the withers.

Go against the favorites. No question that right?

Yeah, that's perfect. That's what we do.

I love you. So who would you have on top

here? Then you thinking the Davis once

you get to Saturday, That's like you're spreading.

Yeah definitely going to spread, but if I had to pick one right

now, I'd probably go Groveland, okay?

I think litigate coming out of a Gulfstream Park, is going to

have something to say in this race especially with Todd and

Louis and that 521 number. I don't know if we're going to

get it and it would be an interesting one for blame,

right? I mean, as far as breeding and

all those things, getting a good and graded Stakes, here I am

wondering. If that horse stretching, at

least go into turns, I don't you bury our of the opinion.

It's not the turns, it's the distance.

It's right. So going a mile before that only

adding a sixteenth of a mile here at Tampa.

I'm wondering if That horse can repeat some of that.

Previous form, didn't run great last time out, but was getting

to know that longer distance did put in a bullet.

The other day has been training, staying in South Florida.

So if I was going more than more than three two, one I'd be

looking at litigate. So that one I was, I was kind of

hesitant because he lost a cyclone Mischief, who came back

and just ran a complete bomb now.

Yeah, well, I'm wondering to eat, you know, it's the Holy

Bull last week. Rocket can wins I wanted Ask you

about this. To me, that's a horse to watch

really closely because I loved those horses break their

maintenance to. But come back as three-year-olds

and look, wave proved Belmonts, only run that horse over two

turns in a mile. And a sixteenth were you

impressed by rocket can? Or were you unimpressed by the

field? Yeah, it wasn't a good feel that

I okay, that race is going to come back.

All that fast, it's definitely something to build on for sure

though. It wasn't like it was a total

waste of race or anything like that, but they weren't super

fast. So, I'm still on the lookout for

for somebody else to step up, okay?

You don't need you, you haven't found a Derby horse, that you're

really high on yet. Like you're no.

No not at all. Not yet, huh?

Okay. How about on the outside of you

outside of Wonder Wheel? Do you like anybody?

No, not really head and shoulders right now right now.

Yeah, but I don't know if you Too much further.

Going on for a long as you. Yeah, I think we'll find out

when we see who's your Phillies. It is your field, I think who's

your family. When she gets on the trail,

we're going to find out because Mike and I are very, very high

on this 30 Philly, classes, interesting, that your your kind

of wanted done there. It's a I did say I'm interested

in this too with you, very red carpet ready with the seven for

a long race. Zaj L will not raise two years

ago. She never won anything longer

than a mile. Did you take much out of that

forward? Gal.

I should say it was anyone at this point?

The Wonders kind of at least with Rocky and got a perfect

trip and suddenly the Philly so you know it's hard to gauge

because they're getting better and I think there's there's

horses out there that we haven't.

Seen that a pretty good, so I'm waiting for something like that.

Hoosier, do you think do you think baffert has the top three

year old male right now? Yeah, absolutely.

Absolutely night. Yeah, there's no question right?

No doubt about it. Do you think that horse wins the

Derby? If he has to move Barnes?

Yeah. Okay.

Do you have a favorite in the Pelican that isn't Willie Boy,

or sibelius? Longer than seven furlongs and

synthetic. If you take those races out and

you see the progression sources right there with these guys last

time, I'll dr. Oscar for example, the six horse

12:50 here with Canon has aboard runs a 110 and 10 over six

furlongs that's a winning time in this race, right?

Yeah, maybe a tick faster than that.

But okay, he'd be 19 and three that kind of thing.

Yeah. I mean, is this patient heat up?

And that's why I kind of like those two inside inside horses?

So no kid, no one popular speaker.

Yeah. A little Jose Ortiz and Tyler

Gaffney Leon, I guess you can't go wrong there.

Anybody else on this car that really stands out to you because

I know you're always looking for that long shot that you want to,

you want to use as a key in a the sequence horse that I kind

of like is in the First stake race there in the minaret 7?

Yeah, the inside horse griffa Aros.

Okay, I like that one quiet. Yeah, on win streak right now

and done. Nothing.

Wrong down a Gulfstream and I'll put Mama that.

So are you like me? Do you like it when a horse just

no matter where they run? They just win?

Yes, I'll take it on the road. It's hard.

That's yeah, but the ones that do I And to follow them.

Let me go. All right very well you ain't

looking for you. Yeah I want to know what

it was so we made and perfectly kept.

I never had a shit like it's It kept his form all the way

through until I finish it and then you just saying hanging

out, Ybor City, chickens everywhere and you know,

enjoying the scenery and loving it man.

Let's see. And then, yeah, we did the

little haunted tour that one night.

It was a lot of fun. So do you come in the wintertime

or summer time? We came in the wintertime

winter? Yeah.

Yeah, it was great. The other.

Yeah, we're trying to, we're trying to get out of this crap

up here. Look you've been at a sea of

course I have. Yeah, I'm actually st.

Pete Beach man. I think is an underrated like

undiscovered. I'm that people north of STP,

that's nice. It's not a river there.

Riverfront area to is really kind of and it's sweet.

So, I had dinner restaurant their camera with the name of us

but was good. So how can people follow you

this weekend, man? What are you going to be home?

I'm going to be on the track feed on Saturday, for Tampa Bay

Downs. Typically, I do my podcast going

in circles. We do podcasts every money.

When the show comes out on Monday, but people don't really

get to it to Wednesday night, right?

What's up? You guys have.

Yeah. Okay.

You truck Simon crushing it up on a pretty much.

I mean if it's like a marathon, it's way too long.

We gotta cut it down but by the way, I have to admit that I

would suggest you watch this show on Thursdays and then on

Monday you follow up the weekend with our be previewing and

there. Following up the weekend with

the big circles on money. That's an easy one to it.

That's enough entertainment through Monday.

You gotta 30, take these, you pick the winners on Monday,

right? Record it, we're doing this

backwards for sure. Yeah, that's right.

Well, he is very Spears man. A turbine handicapper on

Twitter. He is the sniper Berry, man.

I always appreciate when you jump on, dude, good luck this

weekend and I'm sure you'll be great on the call to see him.

I, but thanks. Here's me.

That was Barry Spears. By the way, reminder to people

listening his weird life claim to fame is that he was teammates

with Ben Wallace in college. That's right.

We talked about that last time. Big Time.

There is actually a, yeah, pretty much Mount Union.

Is that correct? Virginia Virginia?

And yeah, I think they were D2 at the time.

They were they because they, they were definitely D2 at the

time. They were in the berries, Dead

bears that play pro ball. So yeah, long long history,

basketball his family. Yeah.

Well, they're yeah, I think that's his fourth appearance on

the show. Maybe I remember working some

repeat customers here. I like it.

Well yeah, it's not bad. We haven't really tapped into

the new in TWA be debuted. Not tapped into the seven year

olds that are available to us and they don't you will get to a

couple of them. There's something they're not

all seven year, olds, you know, Gaby got that's not a

seven-year-old person. By the way, back through Faro's

pick was Santino aboard in the minaret solids.

Start off the pick five there. Kind of attractive.

Not going to lie, it's pretty good.

All right, like it, Louis, what else you got going on?

I think, you know, we got we got to pick three in the sheet this

weekend, we should mention our friends at Green Street Racing's

racing.com. I have I put in my pick three

this weekend, I will tell you I disagree with Barry about the

same at Davis. I think there's an obvious

favorite in that race. I agree with him about Wonder

Wheel in the Sun Coast and I disagree with him.

About the Pelican. And so if you agree with me, I

have a ten dollar pick three that cost 20 bucks that I'm

going to try to hit of all the graded, races leading, 8, 9 and

10 are into the same of Davis that last race.

Is some is a maiden 27. It's a maiden special weight

down there and I like to first timers and I don't want to give

out a ticket based on first-timer, so I hear you and

frankly the take out rate for the Pick. 3 is the same as the

pick for. Oh wow, at Tampa.

So to me Cameron, he's our decision.

I think what our Wheels you're most likely winner of the Year.

Mike you and I talked about this year over year this is our

fourth year. Talking about it you are much

more likely to see a filly translate her form from The

Faults and spring. You have the male's Rocky cans a

perfect example of a cult that did the opposite.

And so I think she's the most likely winner.

I do think the favorite in the Davis with with wnl.

I don't think it's closed at. That's the best horse in this

race. So he and I disagree there.

I think, with a little bit of moisture in that track to hell,

he could, I do think that's absolutely the case.

I don't think Jose Ortiz comes in to ride that horse for no

reason. I'll put that.

And I and I do think that, you know, if especially if litigate

is the second choice, that's not good one, huh?

I'll ciampino time to dream his dream and then, um, but yeah,

I've questions about litigate as well, to me, but many times.

You're there. That's in the consistency with

pretty good speed figures 92, spit for years and both races.

We'll just see if that's a teacher and course or not.

I'm, I don't, I will disagree with Barry.

I do think it's more about the turns in the distance on that

you and I agree on that. And it's an interesting.

It was fun to watch that. Go back and forth on Twitter

because it is, I think 50, 50 people care about distance or

people care about turns. And I think the ability to

switch lead to the ability to You, you know, especially in the

in a final stretch when that when that lead leg is tired to

be able to switch back to that lead leg eventually in the

longer stretches, like added Churchill, or at an Oak Lawn or

the second Finish Line at Keeneland, whatever it might be.

I think there's something there and so I disagree with him on

that but I wanted to bring it up tonight just kind of smile

because you and I disagreed on Twitter and I'm not thinking

that the best illustration of the Louis is really that.

Is that At that Turf Sprint that we see in the Breeders Cup, the

juvenile Church Sprint, you know where the European horses are

used to just going straight straight line and it's the same

distance for a lot of those horses going straight as it is

the ones from a North America, they're going 1, / / one turn.

And it was until this year we had a European horse.

Come up and win that race you know.

So 146 now whatever is yeah right?

Yeah so I think that's a really intimately.

We know that European horses dominate those Turf races in the

Breeders Cup so I didn't give it in the sheep and if anyone wants

A horse in the final race of Tampa.

Financial advice is a French. Bread, is the five Chad Brown?

Jose Ortiz, to me the giveaway on days like this, if a guy

sticks around after the Sam F, Dave is to ride in a maiden for

27 Grand. It means that he has ideas about

writing this horse in the future and so look for Jose Ortiz,

whose horse just random Bullet at Payson, on February 3rd.

Financial advice is not entered. Here by accident and by the way,

if not no big deal aggressive Florida so I think the five is

your favorite. They're almost no questions

asked and and then after that I like another first-timer which

was cirilla the three toddler definitely on Christoph coma and

Chris talked about 90% first-timers.

I don't another French bread. I don't think it's an accident

that those two Riders are staying on Long.

Shot here that really caught my eye, Lois sighs, a stain on sea

witch. The two in a twenty seven

thousand dollar race. I don't know.

There's out of them once in a while those catch my eye.

I don't know why Louisa is would bother with a race where he can

win trolls. Once she gets, only one that one

kind of stands out to me as why is he still riding that horse?

Maybe there's something there. But so, did you see the latest

on the back for trial? Go ahead.

The the judge I guess yesterday came out and basically gave like

a three-page smack on the hand to baffert's odd because

Bradford said was attorneys. Yeah, yeah, Fabrics.

I was trying to say that there was inappropriate conversations

going on between the the court in Churchill Downs, officials.

So, stay tuned. And of course, you know, that

all that to me, also lends. I think we're going to see it.

Take a little bit longer to have a decision, so we'll see.

We'll see what happens. But hopefully that stuff gets

squared away soon, so we can figure out who's going to train

you in the derby. And all right.

Producers act, join the show. I want to start a new segment

here by the way. I want after the Derby, I'm

officially not a record. I want, what did producers act

learn today as the final segment of what we do here on the horse

racing happier because we have our roots in hanging out with

people who are either new to or learning about horse racing.

Exact obviously, he's been hanging out with me since I got

a new horse racing, but Doesn't nerd out like I do on it.

So Zach, what did you learn today?

Mmm. I'm totally putting them on the

spot here, by the way. Yes, I'd say that.

What I didn't realize was that a lot of these Oaks qualifiers are

not Oaks length, but I would have assumed for Derby and Oaks

in order to be a qualifier, you would have to be a simulation of

that race. Otherwise, why are you qua?

It'd be like wow, Usain Bolt qualifying for the marathon by

running a Sprint like no that's not what you do.

You have Him run the marathon. That's what makes this Derby

unique. Do you actually literally do

something that horses will rarely do in, and actually the

three loads of never done this sort but never run in a twenty

horse field and the Derby side and then they the first time

they've all mostly you've gone them all and quarter.

So that's that's a huge difference, right?

But yeah. Like I would think that distance

is a measurable thing. Like I know, different tracks of

different. Actual distances went from the

Finish Line, you know? 74 a long race in one track

could be one turn instead of to I mean.

But if you have the world record, if you're the fastest,

whatever, human animal at a distance that is how I would

think you would measure your viability.

Yeah, I think the race it seems. Yeah.

Anyway. Yeah.

But typically build up the distance.

I think I'd look at it more like we had the.

Yeah. What's sacks point is well

taken, I mean that's seven for a lungs before and getting 20

points for the Oaks is not, is that what we should be doing?

And I'll show you what I agree with that part for girls to be

in a mile. I mean just should be it is what

it is. I mean and and because otherwise

you're just inviting sprinters who can go a little bit longer

to invade your race. Take the points I journal.

For example and how do you how do you okay this is like a

really deep data nerd question. If somebody spends a life in the

data for work, right? How do you actually measure

predictability? In a sport where every horse is

running different distances before they run the one

distance. So you can say as much as you

want. Like this so race that makes the

most Derby winners, but that from a data perspective, is

total BS because there's the horse.

The horse is not being measured by the same measuring stick.

I do the BS thing that you just mentioned and I would say that

that is especially like a think. One thing that's overlooked

twos. Even though they're all, if

they're all run on dirt which they're not we have some that

are even run on synthetic like you know this weekend at go and

Gates going to be around synthetic, it's not going to be

run on dirt and because use last year's winner came out of a

synthetic or a synthetic race, which is unusual and blueberry

will never see again. But well, you say that Animal

Kingdom did the same thing. Man, that's true.

I hate to tell people like that's 20% of the last 11

Derbies. I mean, it's so weird to say and

people don't want to hear those stats, but it's a legitimate

thing and it's two different surfaces as to determine Yeah.

That's yeah. That's the other part.

Yeah, it's wild. It's why?

So no. But the dirt compositions, even

of these tracks are completely different.

Yeah, 100% get that. But like you could argue that.

That's true about any racing sport that like the the chemical

composition of Daytona is significantly different from

Joliet racetrack in Chicago, right?

Like they have to survive different weather events and

sure and they get repaid. Paved with different chemical

compositions like you can make all those arguments.

But like in my head there was the assumption that you

wouldn't. You wouldn't want to run a horse

at a different length from the race, your dress.

So the the Derby's different because of that. 10 for a long

thing, a mile and a quarter but with the Oaks at a mile and an

eighth, I mean many of them, but they will run run it.

Yeah. But they're already running

behind an aqueduct, the fall. I mean, like That's a thing.

And so it's a little It's where if someone was serious about the

Oaks and I don't know who that person is they would clean up

the Oaks Trail. It's embarrassing right now.

Yeah Ford gal is 20 points is embarrassing when they run when

they run nine furlongs at aqueduct in the fall to come

back and run. Seven is not okay, it's not

okay. And by the way, naira as part of

the problem, they're running nine furlongs in the fall and

then they come back in the acorns, it's a mile.

Right? No, no.

And then you run the Alabama, 10.

At Saratoga? No.

No, that's okay. It's always Zach.

I mean it's your questions. Horse racing.

That totally is not mean. Every sport has its stuff.

You know. Like you think about baseball

stadiums, right? Like it's a great event, like

the Home Run. That's a great example.

Yeah. But you know there's there's

some amount of like, listen if you're hitting it out of the

park at Wrigley like out of the out of the park, there is no

Park in the United States, long enough to stop.

You're going on, right? Whereas, you know, like I got

when I go into the Derby and stuff and I'm picking my own

horses and I'm looking at the PPS and I'm, I glanced the

handicapper and they have their like, for pics.

I'm going back through the distances and saying, sure how

did they do it this distance? And so, if I could qualify for

that race, you know, that be like in my head and this is a

really dumb comparison but it'd be like being like well, mouth,

that is an amazing Sprinter. So There's Derby points.

Let's do it like, well, the interesting part 2, and Matt

talked about this in our interview is that the El Camino,

Real Derby is a mile and an eighth.

It's only a sixteenth of a mile longer the Preakness.

That's why it's actually a good predictor of that race.

That's why as a, you know, get ready for that race, the surface

to, you know, we've talked in the past about horses kind of

skipping over the Pimlico surface and it's why Rombauer

did well on both. It's sort of an interesting

correlation between both. Distance and surface, that way,

whereas on the Derby side you're looking at Gulfstream.

You looking at San Antonio, you're looking at you know

Fairgrounds you're looking at Oaklawn to be your for launching

points at this point, it doesn't mean eventually and I do think

this will happen at some point that New York will become a

place where three of seven Derby winners come out of the wood

because I think that will come back around eventually that

stuff just comes back around. You know I do because the

Derby's I don't know 149 years old and those things have

happened before speaking. Yeah those Trends eventually

kind of fact it's exactly right eventually you run a horse that

you think is lesser and he shows up big time in the withers well

that boom wouldn't own argument. I would have against that is

that I just think the trails completely changed where it's

like I don't think Florida was this prominent back when the

when those yeah you're right. And in 20 years it could be

different again. I mean could be but I don't

think I'm giving the weather. Mario's, I don't think they're

about to close Aqueduct. It's going to go away the

weather's, going to be running belma horse is going to get used

to surfaces, he's going to transfer here.

I'm just saying, I mean, we assume people think things won't

go away aqueducts about to go away.

We need to be realistic about it.

And they're going to run those races of Belmont.

Things are going to change that way.

The withers isn't going to be right about at aqueduct in two

years here in a no conversation, maybe next year, I don't know,

it might happen sooner. So those Trails change horse

racing changes over time. Don't tell me about the

Hollywood Derby doesn't exist. At Hollywood Park.

They run it at Santa Anita. All you need is like, don't tell

me about Hialeah. They run those races at

Gulfstream Park. Like those things, in holes in

horse racing, they change over time and so that path to the

derby is going to change as well.

If you had told me when I moved here, that Turfway Park was

going to have a derby prep of any kind.

I would have laughed so long that you would have left my

house because you couldn't talk again, at all, if you had told

me, they would have had a win. And in to the Kentucky Derby, I

would have died from laughing. They were running nickel

claimers every race and I knew that and I don't need her ten

thousand dollars. Yeah, exactly.

On Wednesdays now they're running three races for 70 plus

K right horse racing changes and we need to know it's in the

middle of probably arguably. It's big as change in history

with the Advent of the pandemic and the online, betting, and atw

wedding. Yes, right, yeah.

Where the money is coming from is changing and With sports

betting. I'm imagining that we're going

to see a transition to those big companies like FanDuel and

DraftKings that they're starting to take a piece of horse racing

as a business. Meaning like they're invested as

a partial owner in a large Horse Racing Association.

Now is going to do something big because I think at the end of

the day, if I've got a horse who I think is going to win, could

win the Kentucky Derby. And what that means from a stud

fee perspective, Going to a place where the weather is a

bigger variable than other places is going to would deter

me heavily from racing, my horse in New York.

So actually with all the Florida and California 100% party from

Louisiana. Yeah, that's saying that those

places don't have bad weather from time to time.

It's just not as much of a variable.

No. I mean.

New York is a bad scene from October to May.

Yeah, I hear you. Like they're met.

By the way. Fandom will already bought the

track in st. Louis, it's called the FanDuel

sports book in horse racing. I mean, like they already did.

I mean, it's not a future thing, it's a now thing.

So I mean, I don't know. I imagination already came true.

Why would I argue you're having you're having two different

conversations. Could the trail change?

Yes. Does it mean it doesn't?

I mean that New York's and be relevant again, you know, we'll

see. Oh no, oh yeah, yeah I'm gonna

guess. Yes, just because the horse

racing money, New York is legitimate the but they've

already got. They've already got their period

of time in June, July and August, where they're relevant,

and I think they're and where they're actually, the show would

like. Once the investment is in

Saratoga, I'm not going to you and I will never argue about

this. Yeah, but the shift from having

Aqueduct, which everyone looks down their nose at yep.

To it, being at Belmont is going to be different.

The going to look at it. Differently and better or worse

because I think aqueducts a totally bearable product.

I think they do a great job but once they move those things,

year-round outside of those three months at Saratoga to

Belmont it's going to be a different landscape in it.

Just I don't disagree with that. I'm just saying that their show

is the Belmont to the Traverse and the Alabama and all that

stuff that happens. I think that's right.

Just don't give a shit. They don't give a shit as much

about the what happens before the Derby can I throw?

Something that's all the way out there here.

Yes. Out there.

What's to stop? FanDuel in 10 years from having

a 10 million dollar purse, so they can get full coverage on

their race track. Nothing Stops anybody.

That's right. And that's what I'm saying.

Like, man people you as a recovered races and st.

Louis Litt because if FanDuel does that, if DraftKings does

that if they say oh you know we're going to Do.

We're going to invite her out a pegasus and st.

Louis. Yeah, for sure.

Yep. And not only that the person is

going to be 10 million dollars, and so that's more than every

race. Every major race in North

America. Yep.

Even if they were 25 million, all right.

Sure. Yeah.

And we're kind of seeing that even what goes down at Kentucky

down. So maybe they just made a

purchase. So big that even if the surface

is not great, they're bringing them.

So, the big difference for me is They own a TV network.

Right? They can outright create their

own feed. Sell it to ESPN, sell it to

whoever they want. And that's the or keep it for

themselves for bedding purposes. And not allow other people to

run a shirt, of course. Yeah.

But I mean like like when we talked about in previous

episodes about like the promotion of the sport and how

does it Grow from here? Like that kind of money could

grow it of its own volition. Sure looking are legally, but

they try to do it down. The pace is likely, brother,

Pegasus run the pace st. Louis.

Then they try to do it with the Pegasus takes something where

they train at 12, noon million dollar race and it's just kind

of ended up withering away again because now it became more.

They went for a while. They went from people paying for

the purse money to having to pay for the person minute.

Right. You know and just you know the

other day Day. Yeah, but FanDuel is also the a

company that has very little exactly.

Answer your question, they could do it.

It will be interesting to see if they're willing to lose two

million dollars. Five million dollars on that

day, to do it. Yeah.

Because that's what's gonna happen.

Yeah, I mean that's that's a drop in the bucket to them.

It's rebates and in two weeks to them, but it'll be interesting

to see, we'll get a good gauge of how they care about horse

racing. Well, I think is Zach's Zacks.

Major Point those Much. Can money overturn tradition?

You know, we'll have to wait and see.

Yeah, absolutely right. But like, arguably the first

decade of the MLS was dominated by four teams because they were

the teams that were going to pour money in.

Right? And like, you know, the soccer

talking to Thursday. Yeah.

Exactly. And so, I mean, in my mind horse

racing, as a sport is driven by Dollars and if right and if you

know, if FanDuel wanted to say, you know, we're going to do,

we're going to screw up the Triple Crown.

And in June, we're going to have a 10 million dollar race You

know, like they could do that. And yes, there's The Prestige of

winning the Derby but If you could well, and that's the thing

with with a three year olds, the purses don't matter.

As much as the what happens on the other side of the stud fee

and debris, inside the person's job.

So matters much, but until they run until they run a race for

ten million dollars, silly resin, you can intervene.

That's right, that's right now, it could happen for sure, but I

will believe it when I see it as far as the Turning of the taker

around, that is horse racing for.

Yeah, right. And by the way, the people

moving Kentucky, I don't think care to poops about, who's

running in the derby as long as they don't it.

The Derby could be the Derby could be 20 on Leon's horses and

it wouldn't matter to because most people couldn't tell you

anything about those horses anyway.

Yeah, that's the people in Kentucky.

They couldn't tell you about and most people couldn't tell you

about any bowl. That Wasn't the Rose Bowl and

the Orange Bowl, or the one on was in Europe.

And now there's 45 bowls, and people are dead set on seeing

them and they watch them. Yep.

Three million and retired on. Yeah.

And the metal all right fellows enemies with yeah, let's play.

The music was pay the tab. Get out of here.

This has been the horse-racing happy hour.

Open up.