Wood Memorial 2024 w/ Matthew DeSantis

We welcome in front of the show Matthew DeSantis.

He's up there at naira. Naira bets, go check him out at

Failed to Menace on Twitter. Matthew, it is your big day, my

friend up there at Aqueduct. How are you man?

I'm doing well and just, you know, suffering through a 4.8

magnitude earthquake in New York petrol area.

But glad to report everybody is doing great up here at Aqueduct

and ready for a big weekend to raise.

It OK, so the aqueduct did not collapse on itself despite the

reports. Absolutely not.

We are still standing strong and we are ready to rock'n'roll.

It's going to take a lot more than a 4.8 to get us to to knock

us down. So it's it was quite a way to

jolt the morning and I don't know if I'm going to need my

Mountain Dew anymore, but this was, yeah, quite an interesting

way to start the day. But yeah, like I said, we have a

great day of racing on Saturday. The weather is cleared out, it's

going to be nice fast track on Saturday, so we're really

excited about it. There you go, a bunch of options

up there on wood Memorial Day at Naira, up at Aqueduct, and so

go. Make sure you check them out as

part of lots of bets of the Cross country bet with the three

preps. Do you like that?

Yeah. So the big three pick three is

the one with the the three preps that you can do a lot of fun, $3

minimum bet and you can do the Oak Lawn or you can do, I'm

sorry, the Bluegrass, the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood

Memorial. I'm a big fan of that.

I think there's some potential to find some value in that

field, so in that sequence. So I like it a lot.

There you go. You've got a nice card up there

at your place. Don't forget people as we talk

Derby prep, Derby prep, Derby prep and Oaks prep's going on

too. And that's a big day around here

for sure. The Gazelle is Race 8.

We'll get right into it at Aqueduct.

Start at the start line. Finish at the same line, mile

and an eighth there on their Oval up there.

Some names that people probably have heard this year.

Live talk will be in this field again for the pleasure Barn.

Jinjin is in here for Brad Cox. She won previously in the

Busanda on a muddy track. First off, what are we looking

for? For weather.

Besides earthquakes of course. And then second, who do you like

here in the Gazelle? Yeah.

So like I said, the weather, it rained a lot earlier in the

week, but it stopped yesterday morning.

It's been clear and a little windy the last couple of days.

And so it's going to continue to be clear.

We should have a really nice day of racing.

Temperatures should be in the low fifties and track should be

fast rated as fast today. So we're not expecting any

moisture between now and tomorrow.

So we're good to go in that regard.

And yeah, the Gazelle is an interesting race.

I have a hard time trusting life talk after that really very head

scratching performance in the Suncoast where she just came up

completely empty. And I know Todd Fletcher is

going to the blinkers now and I I just at 3:00 to 1:00.

I'm not willing to necessarily take that big of a swing on on a

horse that like I said had really questionable effort last

time out. I call me crazy, but I really

like the maiden in this race Val Brinker off is bringing where's

my ring into New York for this race from California.

This is a horse that ran second to Kinza last.

I'm out in the Santa Isabel, and that's a horse, Kinza, who if

not for Bob suspension from Churchill Downs, would be

probably one of the top two betting choices in this year's

Kentucky Oaks. She's an outstanding Philly.

So where's my ring is, listen, graded stakes placed and she's

got that tactical speed. I really think she at 7:00 to

2:00 is an interesting bet. And then the other horse that I

have my eye on this one is a little further to the outside of

Butcher Reed's horse, Carmelina, who finished second in the

butcher. She could very well get out on

the front end and she's got really good speed.

And it would not shock me if she got out on the front end, was

able to wire the field. I think she's got this nice.

Underrated horse in here and Matthew DeSantis with us from

Naira at Failed to Menace. Regulatory risk is 12 to one in

this race for Chad Brown. Dylan Davis.

She's been running in on off tracks recently but been

training very well on dry tracks.

Do you think she's got any chance at least to hit the board

here on this weekend? 100%, I think 12:00 to 1:00 in

the morning line is a very generous price.

I don't know if you'll get that because of the connections that

you might end up getting closer to 8 to one, six to one.

But she's running against great horses.

W sunset, tarifa value area. You know, she finished fifth

that last time out in the Bush or that was a really bad

condition that day. A lot of rain seal track.

I can draw a line through that effort.

And these are connections you can absolutely trust.

Love the Omaha beach sire up top and she's been training great.

So I think great value at 12:00 to 1:00.

The Bayshore's the next race, ninth race.

Just filling in the card here ahead of the 10th race, Wood

Memorial. The Bayshore's a listed stake, 7

furlongs on the dirt there $150,000.

This is for three-year olds, so this is for the horses that we

might see in the pad de miles something like that.

Who out of this crew do you think is the most likely to win

and then make a make a splash in the Pad de Mile?

Yeah, you know, I'm going to go to another butchery horse here,

Maximus Meridius, the two to one favorite in the spot.

I think this is a really nice horse who's cutting back from

running at a mile in the Gotham and finished fourth in that race

behind Deterministic and Just the Touch and El Grande who

we're going to see in the Wood Memorial.

So absolutely held his own in that spot and I don't really

outran his odds. That day was 25 to one and

finished fourth. This is a horse that's, you

know, run well over a good fast track before.

So I think he can handle the conditions and has great

tactical speed. I will say for a little bit of

value if you're looking for a horse that maybe to use

underneath or potentially just as an upset pick.

I do think the number 2 classic joke at 8:00 to 1:00 is another

really interesting horse that's run against some really nice

horses. If you look at the last race,

this horse beat a horse being catalytic who just finished

second in the Florida Derby to fierceness and that was second

by 13 1/2 lengths, but it was still second.

And you know you go back and look at this horse is running in

some really nice competition in the Mid-Atlantic and then

Florida has fired off bullet workouts and I think it 8:00 to

1:00. Nice generous price there.

In that race there are a couple of longer shots and and this is,

you know, with ten horses you got a good chance that, you

know, maybe a nice hit in the exacto trifecta, something like

that. Are there other horses standing

out here? I love a horse coming out of the

maiden win. That's just a personal angle

that I really like. Chad Brown's got reasoned

analysis in this race. Do you think he's got a shot?

You know, it's going to be interesting the trip that he

sits because he showed a lot better gate speed last time out

and was able to really sustain his run a lot better.

And I think if this horse can take another step forward, I

think an 8 to one, you know, he's certainly a better value

than Chad Brown's other horse proprietary trade.

He's also coming out of a maiden win, but only getting 3:00 to

1:00 on that horse. So I think if reason analysis

can show that added gate speed and sit doesn't need to be on

the lead but can sit more of a tracking trip, I think that's

really going to be the key for him with Eric Cantsell aboard.

And make sure that he, I think can come from off the pace.

And I think the faster the pace is, the better chance he's got

to close into it. And like you said, maybe just be

a part of the trifecta if you're looking to add some horses

underneath. The Wood Memorial is the 10th

race. It's a grade 2 mile and an

eighth. We have not had a Kentucky Derby

winner from the Wood Memorial since FUSA Ichi Pegasus in 2000.

I want to go big picture for just a second here, Matthew.

We'll get back into the handicapping The Wood Memorial

route has not been one of great success, but to be fair, neither

has the Bluegrass 1991 as its last winner in the Kentucky

Derby. Two winners all time in the

Louisiana Derby. I think eventually we'll just

get a winner out of the out of the wood because it'll just

happen. We watched, you know it just

will, it just it'll just happen right.

It's just one of those things just statistically it's going to

happen at some point. But more more interestingly this

year to me, Matthew, is that we had that Remsen in December and

three of the horses in it have won Derby preps, Let me say that

out loud again, they have one Derby preps, domestic product

wins the Tampa Bay Derby door knock goes down and wins, Sierra

Leone wins those, you know we get two of them in the Bluegrass

here. Is there any chance that just

how aqueducts sets up this year? How how those horses leaving

Long Island have have shown up? Is there a chance that the

winner of the Kentucky Derby's in this race because of that set

up this year? Oh that's interesting.

You know it it's it's possible I mean the the ramps of your eyes

been that's been the key race this entire Derby prep season.

It feels like couple years ago I remember with the Kentucky

Jockey Club no question had like white barrio and smile happy and

horses like that. And this year it's absolutely

been the ramps and with those horses you mentioned and even a

horse like Ladon Bro and others, you know, showing up and run

well response. And so yeah, this is I think a

really strong wood memorial field.

And I think you're right statistically it's going to

happen one of these years. And I think it's interesting

that certain trainers are, you know, a trainer like Bill Mott,

I feel like is very strategic in this year bringing in a horse

like Resilience into this spot. And I I feel like there's this

is a really nice prep and I wouldn't be shocked if you saw

the eventual winner of the Kentucky Derby potentially

coming out of this race because you know, this is, I feel like

this is a really strong prep that we have here and I think

this is going to get whoever wins at a lot of momentum going

into this year's Kentucky Derby. Not for any reason other than I

just don't. I don't think of Christophe

Clemont as a Derby trainer and I probably should start because he

has deterministic in this race. Joel Rosario in to ride.

You mentioned Bill Mott. He has resilience in this race.

John Velasquez in to ride that horse.

I pointed this out on our podcast last night, Matthew,

That the thing about Bill Mott, that always stands out to me, he

wins between 17 and 19% of his races every year.

It's what he does. But he wins a fourth of his

graded stakes. That guy's as good as placing

horses in graded stakes company as any trainer in North America.

I mean, I I think resilience obviously has a shot here, but

do you give a a nod to deterministic in this field and

if he does win, I mean we're looking at a horse that's going

to get some buzz and is probably a 1012 to one kind of play on

Derby day. Yeah, I I would agree.

Listen, if Deterministic is able to pull this off, he absolutely

goes into the Kentucky Derby as one of the top, I'd say 5 or 6

bags in that race. And you know he is in many ways

the exception to the rule this year on the Derby trail and that

we have seen so many high profile last out maiden or

allowance winners fall flat when they step up into these Derby

prep races. I'm thinking of horses like

Conquest Warrior or Dynamatic or Change of Command and etcetera.

Deterministic is kind of the exception to the rule.

He broke his maintenance. Saratoga went to the bench for

six months, came off the bench and won a great three.

Gotham, I mean that just you don't see that happen every day.

That's it. I have some questions about

whether he's going to be able to handle the two turns in the

distance. He's got the right running style

for it, but he, it seems like he's more of a traditional

Miller. And so as a result, my topic is

resilience for Bill Mott. I love this horse and a six to

one on the morning line. You're getting a really fair

price. And his horses run against the

best competition of anyone in the field and he ran against

locked. Drumroll please.

Stronghold Nash Sierra Leone track phantom catching freedom.

I mean this horses run against the best in the crop and has

held his own. And I think that fourth last

time out in the Risen star was really strong.

You mentioned Bill Mott knows how to place his horses.

Blinkers go on. Johnny Velasquez aboard inside

rail ground saving trip. I just think there's a lot to

like there for the price. Uncle Heavy is on the outside

and he's the winner of the Withers.

If he wasn't in the 13, would you feel a lot better about his

chances? 100% I I love this horse and

when I was I was there for the post draw and as soon as they

said 13 Uncle Heavy, I just thought, well there goes his

chances, you know, It's just it's a really tough draw for him

because he doesn't have good tactical speed and he prefers to

sit. He's not really a deep closer.

He prefers to sit more of a mid pack trip, but the problem is

he's not. He's either going to get hung

extraordinarily wide or he's going to get shuffled really far

back. And if you look the one time he

got shuffled really far back, he didn't fire particularly well.

So I just don't know the trip that Michael Sanchez is going to

be able to carve out for him from that 13 post.

And it's too bad because I think he's the genuinely talented

horse who who could, if he was drawing in the 6th hole, would

be, in my opinion, would be 5 to one or nine to two or something

like that. I think you would have much

better chance, but that 13 post just absolutely crushes them I

think. I love stories like that where

they breed the horse for five grand.

He's already made almost $300,000 and if that horse can

get into the Kentucky, I just. I love those kinds of stories.

I'm just soccer forum in that case, looking at the points by

the way, to qualify for the Derby Uncle Heavy sitting in the

27th spot with 20 points. I think a third place finish

puts them right on the border to where where they're going to

have to ship them to Churchill and either wait it out or maybe

they get like because a reminder to folks you know they're the

the winner of the Fukurai who has already grabbed their spot

from the Japanese route. So we're really we're looking at

19 spots in the Kentucky Derby starting to get you haven't

mentioned Tuscan Sky was coming out of an optional claimer for

Todd Pletcher down at fairgrounds did break his maiden

at Aqueductus. Only run in the butter in the

slop. Do you give the nine horse in

this field much of a chance? You know, he's obviously very

talented, but I do have my questions and he's switching off

Play 6 for the first time. Pletcher is not necessarily

great with those numbers in graded stakes races with

three-year old switching them off, I think only about 14% over

the last five years. And the other thing to keep in

mind is this is a horse that has in two career races beat a

combined seven horses. He beat A6 horse field in debut

and he beat a three horse field last time out of paragraphs.

I mean so this is a really big test and yes he beat a horse

like Nash last time out, but I think those really small two and

three horse fields that you'll see run occasionally.

I just those results can be so cloaky and it's hard for me to

put too much stock in it. And at 4:00 to 1:00 there's a

horse that'll take a lot of money.

Todd Fletcher's won this race 7 times, so people are naturally

going to gravitate to his horses, and I'm just willing to

kind of take a little bit of a swing against him and try to use

a little bit of a price. But obviously it has done

literally nothing wrong and is certainly, I think, a legitimate

horse to be considered in this race.

All right, resilience in in the wood.

His name is Matthew DeSantis at Failed to Menace on Twitter.

Who do you have in the other two?

Let's try to fill out that, that, that pick three, give us

two horses in each race. Let's do that.

Let's get two horses from the Bluegrass, two horses from that

Santa Anita Derby that you think are real likely winners of their

races. Yeah, so I'll go out to the

Santa Anita Derby first. I think the top two are the if

it's up to in the morning liner you're most likely stronghold in

imagination. I have stronghold up top I

that's a worse it just keeps getting better every single time

out And then in the bluegrass listen, hey it might be seem

very basic but I'm going to cover my bases with the closer

and with the horse that's going to be up on the front end.

So Dornik and Sierra Leone, I think those two look really,

really good. If there is an upset, I think BU

is the interesting upset candidate.

Now I think the the longer shot that I cannot figure out is good

money in that race because he did run a really good Tampa Bay

Derby. This is his second chance to go

routing, so we'll see if he improves at all.

But his name is Matthew DeSantis at Failed to Menace on Twitter.

He's with Naira Bets and we appreciate him joining us here.

I have to ask a couple things real quick before we get you out

of here. Keeneland opens today.

Say something nice about Keeneland.

Oh, it's it's a beautiful track. It's one of those places you

walk into it, you just feel like you're at home and it is truly

just the way racing should be. It's very similar, It's a little

bit different from Saratoga, but a very similar feel to.

So I think when I walked into Saratoga the first time,

gorgeous track and it's just great racing to full fields.

I love the two year old races in the spring.

Obviously all got Bet Wesley Ward in those spots and you know

some great racing today in the Transylvania.

I'll be honest that Lafayette Stakes is absolutely loaded as

well. And you know the Ashland is

going to be a lot of fun watching a horse like just FYI

Candy and Impel go at each other.

So it's just a great day of racing and love, love Keeneland

and love following at this whole meet.

And do you make the trip for the Kentucky Derby?

I actually have never asked you that before.

I have before. I will not be doing it this

year, but I have before made the trip.

I was there the year Animal Kingdom 1, so that's why I've

always been a fan of Grand Motion ever since so.

There you go. He's Matthew DeSantis.

He's up there at Naira on Long Island.

He'll be there for the wood memorial tomorrow.

Appreciate your time here today, Matthew.

Good luck with all your Voyagers this weekend.

All right. Same to you, Louis.