Kentucky Derby 152 Preview Show | ESPN Louisville

Well, let's get after it. A Flemi Stark to Derby dance.

It's the horse racing gap. Yeah, I rang it out with Barry

Spears. My name's Lou Revo.

Danner. Bruna Best.

So by the glass, hanging out with us, making sure everything

stays on the air for us. 437-9680, 502-437-9680 is our

UPS jobs tax line. Would love to hear from you.

No matter where it is that you are listening to us from around

the country, around the world, wherever it is that you're

spending your Derby day. Thanks for starting up with us

here at ESPN Louisville. We've got you For the next three

hours. We'll be joined by our friend

Danny Brewer, the the stud from Smyrna.

I don't know how appropriate that is and I don't know that

his wife likes me calling him that, but he'll join us at

11:20. Get a little of that Tennessee

twang. He's the finest turf rider in

the state of Tennessee. Steve Kornacki, NBC Sports at

noon today. And of course, our guy from the

Three O 5, Carlos Morales will join us from agentes Tres Cerro

Cinco. That'll be at 12:40 today,

Barry. And I'll take you home in the

final hour of this one as well. Again, 437-9680 would love to

hear from you. Not a very not warm Derby day.

Barry, how are you? Hanging in there, it's freezing.

Such a Florida guy, I love it. Yeah, man, you can take the the

sniper out of Florida. Can't take the floor you.

Can't take the. Floor your blood at this point

is very thin cables tomato salad like he just really is.

You just have no chance. At least Tanner has some some

modicum of of the northeast still left in his body.

He still hangs out in ice rinks like he's still got some of that

stuff. But Barry, you're done like

you're done done. If it's low 80 I don't hear from

you like it's. Oh yeah, I stopped moving.

I'm like the opposite though. If I go to floor like you go to

Florida, you're left in Charleston.

Like not too long ago, not even Florida weather.

And I was still like, OK, so here's the thing.

I think Barry would even say this.

Like there's a humidity thing in South Carolina that just doesn't

exist in other places. Like it's offensive.

Like it it sticks to you like it's not OK.

I do remember one time, like I was exiting an airport with my

wife. I think it was Fort Lauderdale.

And it was, it was July, OK. And I said, I need you to know

it's not just going to be hot. Like the ground is going to be

hot. And she was like, sure,

whatever. And we get outside and she's

like, why are why are my ankles this warm?

I'm like, oh, yeah, no, it's, it's stupid.

Like none of this makes sense at all.

Barry, you and I took of the races yesterday.

Of course. Man oh man, I we thought it was

wide open Oaks. Yeah.

I thought we got 3 logicals at the end.

Yeah, but look, I in a in a wide open field, Chad Brown, third

time starter, always a runner, will try to turn around and do

exactly that with emerging market in the Kentucky Derby

today. Her win yesterday, I thought, by

the way, a really nice addition to the yolks, really well

learned race. Yeah, that that was a really

good rendition a a nice race. It was very competitive.

I I think always a runner got the trip of a lifetime and

capitalized. She was really good, ran down a

a really nice horse in Meaning and Explorer, so things are

looking up for a horse like that.

Lots of people asking about the bet share.

Let me shoot some text and see what's going on.

But I would just keep following at ESPN 680 at 93.9 Deville just

ahead of those things. I'm sure the guys will get those

tickets up there. There's way too much bragging

with Ed Derosa on the line for them not to do that.

So they go. The texture isn't this great

Derby weather, though. Get to stay outside all day.

The sun will be out today. I will.

I will take hold of not raining. Barry will just not take cold.

Like there's just a line for Barry that just it can't be

done. But I appreciate everybody

taking. The time rain is is, yeah.

You left Boston for a reason. And Boston, by the way, is a

special kind of cold. Yeah, February in Boston is So

what I did, I did a grad grad school visit in in Boston in

February by a senior of college. No, thanks.

Yeah. It was very click.

I was like, oh, we can go to Bloomington instead.

All right, we can do that. Let's go figure that out.

Oh man, 437-9680 keep coming on the UPS jobs tax line.

But she does win the Oaks again. Barry, I think a lot of the

stuff we talked about before the races went off yesterday as far

as how the track was playing and whatever else, all that came

true. The only thing I haven't seen, I

don't think yet Barry is a front runner in on the turf course of

any kind winner race, whether it be a Sprint or a route runner.

That's fair, but. Otherwise, I think you can you

can win your way. Like if you're, if you're a

Knights Bridge today, go to the front.

Like don't change your tactics because of how you think the

track is working. Just go to the front.

That's that's exactly right. So I don't think much of that

will change for today. Who won Race 1, Barry?

And go ahead and pull that up on the computer as well.

Make sure we've got that ready. For power shift the 11.

Oh, good. Am I on top pick there?

Yeah, well, that'll do. 3 was second in a photo for the third

between the six and the four. What number was second?

3. Oh, my third pick.

Interesting. In your top pick?

Yeah. Oh, it's interesting.

It's almost like if you had started with me, you'd be live

in the pick three right now. Yeah, such as you went if you

went left to right. You can't sweep the card, Barry,

without getting the first race, right.

You understand me? Yes, Sir.

That's how you start Derby Day. That is on top Winner with Power

Shift. Yeah, even from the outside a

mile of 16th, which is why I know you had him third.

That's correct. He got good position.

I I saw the race, he. He's a nice horse, actually.

Yeah, no, he's a good. Horse, by the way, I want to be

on record and Barry and I were talking about this coming in.

I think this second race will produce a runner in one of the

Triple Crown races. It's possible. 3 year olds which

have never run away, won a race, blah blah blah blah blah.

So you've got Steele in here, who is Triple Crown nominated

Memory, a Baffert runner who just broke his maiden at Santa

Anita. If he runs off the page today,

Barry I I'll call it right now. That horse is either in the

Preakness or because it's a Starlight horse, it's either in

the Preakness or in the Belmont. OK, so everybody next race, odd

Derby day, you might see a horse that runs at a Triple Crown

race. Make My Day is also Triple Crown

nominated. There was one other I thought,

yeah, a spirit of Royal on the outside.

Probably not a winner here. But look, man, this is I think

where you find that next level of kind of horse because all

they're doing Barry is running for $127,000.

That's. It a mere 127.

That's it. So in California we call that a

grade 3 plus 437968 UPS jobs tax line for sure.

Anyone else stand out? Yesterday I I thought some

interesting performances. Nice to see in the last couple

of days. Horses like Cyfair get back to

form. Anyone else that caught your eye

yesterday? Yeah, Cyfair definitely stands

out that that race was really good yesterday.

Yeah, not so much. I think there was some good

performances. Nothing that that wowed me per

SE, but. What do you make of corporate

power winning the alley Shiva? I thought that was a really

tough effort. He, he's supposed to do that.

Honestly, he, he ran his race, got the trip he wanted and, and

finished it off. That was a, you know, a little

bit jostling there at the end with, with Skippy and I, you

know, I, I thought they were bumping each other and they made

the right call. Right what continues?

Just an excellent year for Skippy, even with the second

place finish. Just another spot for a. 7 year

old, he's really. Top 2 and and and the greatest

stakes still going at that point, by the way, in the

modesty yesterday. You have to feel pretty good

about that one. Yeah.

I mean, Catherine Mercer, right? Oh, yeah, yeah, definitely.

So Gazora gets upset there. What do we make of Gazora moving

forward, though? Just when you think she'd get

back to more distance and more of her kind of races, I think.

Longer is better. I think so too.

Not that that got her beat yesterday, I I just think she

probably needed she. Race.

She was second best yesterday, right second.

Thought about that's it, you know, she ran really good and

just got beat by her stable mate.

We'll talk with Danny Brewer up next the the stud from Smyrna,

the smartest stud. What do we call these days?

What are we working on? I don't even know I.

Don't know man. Smartest Smyrna grill man.

Does many things, I said sports bro on the socials if you want

to go find him with his coverage there.

But yes, it's a an interesting race coming up in Race 2, but of

course getting into the card later on.

Is there an undercard stake that you're especially looking

forward to? Barry?

I'm fascinated with the trio of runners coming back in the turf

Sprint today that all were in the top three of the Shakertown

last out at Keeneland. I have all three of them

repeating that performance, Barry, believe it or not, in my

handicapping. I just thought that much of that

race and I think all those horses are in great form.

Is there another race on the early card this?

Day I thought the Knicks go might be an interesting race to

to watch the sixth race and. We'll preview that race at 1:00

today. I, I'm, I'm interested in seeing

crude velocity run. I, I, I mean, I'm not really

interested in that race per SE, but I do want to see crude

velocity. Just see him go, right?

Yeah, yeah. You know, brother Kenny breaks

from the inside and that Knicks go.

He's an interesting horseman. Yeah, remember we saw that horse

up at Horseshoe last year and and he ran a great race that day

behind. 3rd 3rd in the Indiana. Doug Thomas and.

Coal Battle, Well, they came here and they ran him in that,

that three-year old Bourbon flight, the mile on a 16th or

about 316th. Excuse me, He picked that one

off. Then he went to ZA Park, picked

off the ZA Park Derby, and then they tried him in the Pan

American over the turf because he moved to the D Angelo Bar and

no dice. Yeah, I, I don't know if you saw

it, they they put out a video of when they paraded that horse for

that race, the owners and they said it was an experiment.

They were just trying to see what it was so.

What I'm saying, he's getting back to it today and I mean, 15

to one, that's that on big days, that's the kind of horse we

wanna see is drop it back into these.

Something with a question mark that could go either way.

That's that's usually a good sign there's there's a potential

for a nice long shot. Pay off, texter Louis, I think

an ironic statement is I'm feeling good about the modesty.

It's pretty. It's a little bit of ironic.

Yeah. No, it's a good job by you. 437

I am now, but yesterday I was fairly modest about it.

You were fairly modest about it. Fairly.

All of our stuff is up at horseracinghappyhour.com,

totally free to you. You could also follow along with

all of the programming that we do around that around horse

racing, Frank, She ends up at that spot.

Kind of an easy catch all for the things that we work on.

Anybody else stand out yesterday for you, Barry?

I thought the Lachuan, for example, shred the NAR boy, oh

boy. Just a breakout performance for

her. Maybe the one that we look back

on and go, OK, we have a new, a new member, a real one of that

distaste. Division.

I like that performance. Visually it was very exciting

and and pleasing to the eye, but I don't know how much that horse

can run like that and still win a lot of races.

She runs very, very hard up front and I I think that's going

to catch up with her. Her running style.

I don't know if they're they have plans to cut her to like

one turn miles. I'd like to see that too, but

we'll see. She's she's definitely a, a, a

real tough, tough foe on top. Yeah, I'm trying to find the

speed figures from yesterday, see if Shredenar took a step

forward. I gather she did that was that

was a pretty quick race. Well, and frankly, the day, the

last race she was in, in the Royal Delta, she was way, way up

the track there at Gulfstream Park.

You know, it's interesting, man, watching these horses that we

think are going to be good at Churchill Downs, who just didn't

love it at Gulfstream recently. And, you know, credible stands

out in the Derby as one of those for sure.

But Royal Delta, man, she was doing all kinds of things.

And and the the reason that that race was so impressive to me is

I just usually I think of Gulfstream Park as translating

really well here. So that Royal Delta was just so

bad. I threw her into my ticket,

Barry, because it was one of those everyone else sees

something I don't and once in a while I have to bet on those

horses. That just is what it is.

Yeah, brother, Kenny's scratched.

Of course he is. There it is.

Thank you. Yeah, I bet everyone else is

scratched too, Boo. Luckily he's not my

handicapping, but I do like that horse.

Yeah, we'll get him. We'll get over there.

We'll get him. Yeah, we'll get over there for

sure. Hey, let's do a quick stakes

preview. Let's look at race 4 today,

Barry. Early in the card will be the

the Derby City Distaff. Sort of sort of a short field of

6 here for this one. You and I landed in the same

spot, but we get to see the return of Ways and Means Grade 2

winner last year won the Grade one test as well in the mud at

Saratoga. If it were a wet day at

Churchill Downs, I think she might be one of the early keys

that you would look at for the early part of the card.

You sure about that? Man, who else in this field

would be good in the in the slot?

Besides, I don't know our disaster.

I I wouldn't think some Splendora wouldn't like the the

wet track. I I think she'd be OK.

I think we learned last year to stop discounting California

horses in the slob. Yeah, because they they never

run on it. But I I would think there's some

monsters out there that actually could run on it.

You and I both landed on Splendora in here.

Why did you do that? Her performance in that beholder

mile was absolutely fantastic. We haven't seen her since, but I

gather she was just so superior than all of those horses.

I, I think she can translate out here.

This isn't a huge field by any means.

Four horses because I believe Hall and I scratched.

So it looks like a dominant affair between the the five

Splendora and Ways and Means. Splendora's just spectacular.

I I think she can do it again. Scratched out of this race you

point out is Holland Ice and so do not use the two horse in your

handicapping for that race. I went 546.

Barry went 5-4 and won Ways and Means second.

Watch Usha scoop them both and and win this race.

Can Usha win this race? Yeah, she just certainly can.

She just needs a trip. And she might be able to get it,

depending on how fast Ways and Means wants to go up front and

how much Splendora wants to pressure that lead it, it could

set up for Usha Usha. Was really good in the La Brea,

but that field stunk. Yeah, it really strongly Larosa.

Couldn't compete in this field. No, Oh my goodness, no, no, go

win that thing by 5, which is what she did.

But at the same time, I mean, that's more of a workout than

anything else. And so not, not the not the

competition level that she's going to get here.

If someone told you they were going to lean on Ways and Means

based on Chad's performance yesterday, you would say.

It's not a bad idea, I just want.

A good idea? I just want to make sure because

I had a buddy text me yesterday. He was like, I think I'm just

playing Chad Brown tomorrow. I'm not bad at that take.

I just. You can't.

Big weekends, bro. Like that's what it is.

His greatest stakes number is now back up over 22% for Chad

Brown, who commonly in graded stakes on the turf at least will

have upwards of three runners in the same race.

Barry hurting his own percentages and still winning at

over 20% with that. Took the exact yesterday in the

modesty of all places. How, How very advantageous of

him in the modesty. What words are we trying to use

instead of honesty? Advantageous.

How selfish of him. In the modesty self-serving the

Finnish 1/2. By the way, Barry Spears and

Tanner, you need to know this. So it's, I think you're going to

be producing some shows for us moving forward and you're going

to have to deal with Barry. By the way, it's time to check

in to your flight if you haven't done it yet.

I have not so do it right. Yeah, I was at the, I was at a

bar last night and I had the news on and it was like Spirit

Airlines shuts down. I go, Oh no, Barry, Barry's

flight for tomorrow. Go on.

Barry texted me about 10 days ago and just said, hey, man, I'm

worried about my flight home. And I was like, you know what?

That's reasonable. Let me look around.

And I found a flight out of Cincinnati tomorrow for like 100

bucks to back to Orlando and I was like, you know what?

100 bucks buries my guy, click and now we need it.

There you go, we need it. And actually we get the discount

because we get the money back from Spirit.

So there you go. I think allegedly, I'm kind of

not counting on that 200 bucks. I just kind of assumed that

money's gone. But man, I was like, oh, you

got? To send me my confirmation.

Oh, I got to send it to you. OK all.

Right. And then I can check in.

Got it. Let me try to do it from here.

437-9680 UPS jobs text line keep them coming on there.

We will talk to we'll talk to Barry Spears.

Barry Spears. We'll talk to Danny Brewer.

Up next, our stud from Smyrna get his thoughts on the day for

sure. Carlos Morales is going to join

us in the 12:00 hour. 1240 Barry.

And he's a guy I bet he has seen if you take out the foreign

runners in this field and you have the 16 that are left,

Carlos has probably seen 10 or 11 of these run, right.

I mean, he's just that kind of guy.

He travels. I mean, he's at all these races.

Yep. And we'll have seen other horses

on the cart as well. And so interested in his

thoughts as well. And of course, Steve Kornacki, a

friend of ours from the Horse Racing Happy Hour will join us

NBC Sports, of course, he'll be part of their TV coverage today.

Let's take a quick break here. Let's get Danny a little bit

early. I think he'd like that. 437968

our UPS jobs text line again, we're presented today by a bunch

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anything last minute that you you might need today.

And of course, our friend Chet Maze at doctor Chet Maze on all

the socials and hair transplant kentucky.com always hanging out

with us during our Derby coverage here on ESPN 681057

Horse racing Happy hour. We do more of a talk to Danny

Brewer next. All right, welcome back in horse

racing Happy hour Kentucky Derby day edition of the program.

Thanks for hanging out with us here on ESPN 680 and 105.7

alongside Barry Spears, Lugermo Cater B back at the studio,

making sure we are on the air. Appreciate him hanging out with

us. 437-9680, Appreciate you hanging out with us.

That's our UPS jobs text line if you would like to get in on the

show. 502-437-9680. Thanks for making us part of

Kentucky Derby Day 152. Danny Brewer joins us from the

track. Of course, our guy from, you

know, look, the smartest stud, the stud from smart.

I don't even know what we're calling him these days, but back

a horse to get paid. Danny, how are you?

Hey, man, I'm doing great, Louis.

Man, I appreciate you boys having me on.

That's no. Problem at all?

Danny, of course. Find him at

horseracingscoop.com. He's a contributor to Forbes as

well. So if you're reading any of

Forbes is Kentucky Derby coverage, that is coming from

our guy Danny Brewer. You were out there yesterday.

Any impressions from yesterday? I thought a really fun rendition

of the Oaks. Happy Saturday.

Outstanding races all day. You know, if you think about the

76 races, the largest margin of victory was a length and 1/2.

That was by all time girl Brad Cox elected a lot of close

races, a lot of very competitive races.

The six races were fantastic and always a runner was very

impressive because she closed and the the the closing speed

was not there. The the front end speed held.

She was one of the horses that closed, one of the only horses

that closed from back. She was like 8 or she she was

further back and she closed in very nicely.

Impressive run. For sure.

I was telling Barry earlier that the only thing I haven't seen

yet this weekend and frankly throughout the week, and it's

one of the things that I appreciate about Churchill

running all week during Derby week, is we get to see the track

set up is I have yet to see a single front runner on the turf

take down a race. Do you think that changes today

or do you think that kind of continues Because I'm bad boy, I

am reticent to to bet a front runner on the turf right now.

I think that that the closers, I think that that more the

stalkers in the closers do have the benefit because it however,

you know, this, this new quote UN quote new turf course, it

looks really fantastic and it's a huge improvement because they

had a few problems with it. But no, the the the front end

speed has not been holding on the turf.

So now I'm I'm with you. Stick to the stalkers and the

closers on the turf. Yeah, the turf for sure.

Danny wanted to ask you about a couple of different stakes races

today, but didn't want us take away any that you think are

especially interesting or maybe you have a long shot play today.

Do you have a favorite undercard race today?

I think that the Churchill Downs is magnificent.

When you look at that race. It's got Knights Bridge in it.

It's got a cornucopian. The Bob Baffert barn, another

Bob Baffert Barner, who I think is one of the best in the

country, is imagination. You know, he went over there and

to the Middle East and was just knocked the lights out of it on

the Saudi Cup day. So, you know, you've got

imagination there. It that race to me is flat

loaded Knights bridge. I mean, you know, good Lord,

what that force has done. So I think that it's it's really

really a stacked race and and you know, disco time.

How about disco time? You know, we there's all kinds

of that are logical plays in this thing.

So I think that that race probably has the most top five

horses talents as far as the top five, probably the most talented

are in that race. I mean, Hall of Fame's in the

race, he's a great at stakes winner Bear.

He's 20 to 1 and you'll get every bit of 20 to one on him.

Yeah, it's amazing because that horse is really, really good and

they they got their hands full. That's a really good field,

really good race. I can't wait to see.

This Danny, were you surprised? Yeah, that Todd Pletcher left

Disruptor in this one. I mean, you know, you just you

want to take a swing. I mean, you know, it's one of

those things where, you know, I mean, yes and no.

I mean, the horses is, you know, 2 for two this year.

So why not take a swing, especially when you get Irad

Ortiz in the irons. So, you know, and the same way

with, with, with some of these other runners, you know, you

think, wow, would you run Cornucopian and imagination in

the same race? But they are, it's a Grade 1.

I mean, it's a Grade 1 and, and it, it carries a lots of

prestige. So, you know, when you think

about the the history of this race in the last few years,

we've seen a bunch of good runners come out here a bunch.

No doubt about it. I'm really happy that one horse

is especially in that race, Danny, and that's point Doom on

the outside won the Carter beat Bucham Dano in that race has now

won three in a row since January.

And I just, I'm so glad that Tim Kreiser brought him here because

this is but like you said, you know, once in a while we, you

know, we're so focused on the Derby and that kind of stuff.

This is a guy trying to get that grade one with his best horse.

Yes, and and this is a fantastic because if you beat this field

and point this, he's he's alive, he's alive, he's very alive.

If you beat this field on this day, wow, what an achievement.

Let's get your thoughts on the Turf Classic right before the

Derby race. 11 here, Barry as well.

Get your thoughts here. You know you've got a favorite

here is program. I know rhetorical's going to be

the favorite here yet to race at Churchill Downs.

You get a four to one second favorite in program training who

hasn't won in a couple years, Danny.

So I'm just kind of wondered when that horse might break back

through. I think there are a lot of

different scenarios that you could play out in your head and

one of them, Danny is and you know me long distance race.

Your boy loves to try to get a front runner in these things.

Corruption makes a lot of sense as far as being a front runner,

but we just haven't seen those horses.

What do you like at Race 11 today?

I'm with you, Louis. I think corruption is one that

I've looked at at a price, you know, gold.

Phoenix is a horse that I like. He's he's a veteran.

I mean, the guy's been out 31 times, you know?

He's so honest. He is so honest, Andy.

What a great horse. Yeah.

You're right, Irish bred out of field, Amato Barman.

He he runs his eyeballs out every time.

You know, is he somebody who might could get there?

Maybe you know, Hector Barrios, a very underrated turf rider.

So I really love Hector and you know what's he going to do here

at Churchill? Don't know we'll find out.

But but gold Phoenix is another potential price play in that

race. That that, that Mike will do a

little something something. Hector Barrios, of course,

riding the seven in Race 11 and then he'll be aboard Intrepido

in the Kentucky Derby in the next race.

Corruption will break from the 1 hole in the race, but looking at

Hector's ride, he will be in the excuse me, I lost him in the

seven with Gold Phoenix, 12:50 on the morning line here.

We'll see where he ends up as far as the betting goes.

Got to get into the Derby with you, Danny.

Which preps did you get to attend in in person this year?

I know you were at the Bluegrass.

Yeah, and that that was it. I, I, the bluegrass was it for

me. So, so that that was it.

I, I, you know, I wanted to make a Jeff Ruby, but I couldn't

quite get there. Just had some family commitments

and whatnot, but the bluegrass was it.

And of course, what a performance we.

Thought, yeah, you may have seen the best performance on the

Derby trail. Obviously Barry was alongside us

for those shows. I mean, how much are you like me

and you can't you get tainted. I shouldn't use the word

tainted. You get affected by watching

horses you know, do a good, you know, run a good race in person

and you kind of glom onto them. Oh, absolutely.

I mean, you know, because you feel connected to them, because

you've seen it. And the thing about it is you

can look at numbers and you can watch replays, but when you sit

with your own eyes live, it makes a difference.

It really does. What do you make of his chances

today? I think he's obviously very

live. Oh, he's, he's my top pick, You

know, I mean, I was on silent tactic a couple weeks ago.

And then of course, the injury and I was just kind of taking a

swing of silent tactic just because of his closing ability

and his big turn of foot. But I'm I'm a further ADO guy

that that's who my top pick is in this one.

Barry, you were saying this morning and Barry was on the

Puma all week and yes, we, we can make all the jokes.

And I told I, I told him Danny, that this, that he's finally

having a real Derby experience, which is you tell a couple

thousand people in, you know from your media spot that you

like a horse and that's who you're going to bet in the

Derby. And they scratch the morning of.

That's the full Derby experience.

Everyone has had that moment before.

But then I also pointed out, Barry, that I was on Rodriguez

last year. He scratches out.

I picked Sovereignty. Here we are today.

Puma out Puma. Did further ado move up in your

book? Yes, absolutely.

I I thought or think that those two horses were probably going

to try to vie for the same kind of trip and having one of them

out definitely helps Further ADO and and also moving in a little

bit, a couple of spots also helps further ADO.

So I think that horse can get in the number.

You know, I've moved Chief Wallaby up to the top of the

grid there and using Further Ado, Potente and Commandment

behind them. OK, there you go.

Danny, who else do you like in the field?

And before we actually, before we get to that, how much are you

putting a line through Renegade by drawing the one in this

Kentucky Derby? You know, I don't think that the

one hole is a complete disaster for him because of his running

style, you know, because he likes to come from from, from

further back. Now the he can get squeezed, you

can't get bumped. There's all kinds of bad things

that can happen to you from that rail draw.

But with his running style, I don't think it's maybe as much

of a factor for him. One of the questions I do have,

though, is, Barry, did you have Puma baskets when you were

hooping when you were playing basketball?

It's it's the Puma. And yes, Pew P/E W because it

stinks. All bad.

His dad was a converse guy. Come on, be better.

Yeah. Oops, sorry man, it's a good

stuff for. My weapons.

I was wearing the weapons. Yeah, 'cause I know I had some

Puma baskets and so I, I, I know I did back in the day.

So you know. Danny, I wanted.

For Converse. I've kind of been asking people

at Danny Brewer with us at Sports Brew, all the socials you

can find him as part of our pretty regular horse racing

happy hour programming. Danny's probably on between 6

and 10 * a year. I've I've been telling people

all week that something that really stands out to me about

how the Derby's being talked about is that I think 10 years

ago Danny Commandment would have been the favorite and we just

would have moved on from conversations about the field.

Wins as a 2 year old here at Churchill.

Goes down to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby route, wins the

Mucho Macho Man at a mile, tries two turns for the first time,

gets that done in the Fountain of youth.

Wins the Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth.

The gallop out is good. He's by into mischief out of an

orb dam. And then you've got the 14 and

the 15 in this race and Patente in his fourth ever start in

emerging market. My pick in the Derby in his

third ever start, we see Chad Brown do it yesterday in the

Oaks. I I think there's it's not a, a

forever change Danny, but I think it's a trend that we need

to watch. If a horse like Potenza Emerging

Market wins the Derby after Mage and after justifying all the new

trends that we've seen, I I think we kind of need to

acknowledge that we're just fully into a new era of

three-year old racing. I think there's without

question, you know, for, for many, many, many years it was

like, well, you, you can't win if you don't start at least if

you don't run at least four times before the Derby.

Well then it was, well, you can't win if you if you don't

run as a 2 year old, you know, so there's all these kind of

things, all these cants have been dispelled.

And I think in this day and age, anything is possible.

And you just have to know your horse and be able to navigate

the proper path for him, whatever that date may be,

depending on his talent level, his health, his endurance, all

those kind of things. And nobody knows that better

than the conditioner. And I think that obviously Chad

Brown knows what he's doing. We found that out yesterday.

So maybe emerging market because you know, that was a question

that I had. Well man, you know this joker,

he run enough. Maybe he has.

You know what I mean? Commandment, though, from the

six, I mean, how he's, he's a serious contender, yeah.

Oh, no doubt about it. I mean, like you said, you just

laid down his his PPS and it tells us that, you know, like

you said, if this were were five or six years ago, he's a slam

dunk favorite here. You know, I mean, Luis Saez,

Brad Cox, you know, wins the Florida Derby, wins found to

youth. I mean, come on, What's not to

like about this guy? I think it's because he hasn't

been super flashy in his win. He's just one.

And I think that contributes a little bit to people maybe not

being, you know, as as high on him.

But I think there's no doubt that commandment is a very

serious contender here. Danny Brewer with us.

You find him in Forbes and of course at horseracingscoop.com.

Does anybody off the also eligible list catch your eye

between the gigantic great white?

That horse, My God, Danny, I've been around that horse a couple

times. I, I keep a distance.

I'll be honest. Like that's a guaranteed injury

to your boy. If that thing gets anywhere near

me. The maiden in Osali will break

from 22. Robusta did much of the work in

the San Felipe before you before before being caught by Potente

in that one. Any of those stand out as ones

that might hit the board for you.

Well, I I think great white and and you're you're absolutely

correct. The joker is massive.

He's a very large horse. The the size doesn't do.

It's because my daughter called me yesterday and say, dad, I

heard great whites in we need to bet him.

And back in the day when she was a little girl.

She's she's she's 25 now. When she was when she was a

little girl, man, she was, she was, she could pick them like

nobody's business. So she says Great White.

There you go that's good enough for me.

I I don't need anything else than than Danny's 25 year old

daughter deciding that we're putting great white in our super

factors. I'm into it.

No, it makes sense to me. Book it.

What else are we doing? Yeah no, that's exactly right.

Danny Peru. That's fine.

Forks and of course horse racing scoop.com.

Is there a long shot otherwise that that you do like it you

know at least like a 15 to 1 morning line.

You know, someone like maybe a Dan in bourbon is so happy an

incredible to wonder Dean. I was also pretty high on silent

tactic going into the weekend, obviously with his scratch

things changing there, but anyone else?

Maybe a golden, a golden, you know, a golden tempo, something

like that. I think Golden Tempo can get a

piece because of his running style and I think we're going to

have a hot pace because we always have a hot pace.

What about incredible? Let me get you boys thoughts on

incredible. You know, he's a guy that's two

for two here. He he looked really good in the

Virginia Derby, had a big move there.

His work, he had a work early in the week where he was like

second out of 73 at the distance.

I think a 47 flat for four furlongs.

What do you think about incredible?

Because he's a horse that I find very interesting.

Jerry, what do you think of Incredible?

I don't like that race. The the Virginia Derby I thought

was a little bit soft, incredible did bounce back,

which I I really appreciated. But you know, him not running

well against nearly who who didn't make the Derby.

It it just put a little damper on what I think his chances are.

I mean, I still think he's a good horse, maybe underneath

might be a minor award, but that's all I can think.

About, you know, his his line matches a bit what counting

stars was coming into the oaks having done where you had to

draw a line for a terrible race and accept the results of others

to get him or get her there. Excuse me and frankly, that's

what I did right. So I should make the case from

incredible. So maybe it's you know, once

bitten twice shy whatever here, but I I'm going to leave this

one out. I question if this horse,

frankly, on two turns at Churchill and this kind of crowd

is going to be fast enough. Was that a great white pun

there? Did I?

I think so. Help.

You know, Kevin, two horses in the Derby, huh?

See what I did there? Switched it up two and 11.

Elvis. How about that?

But incredible is Sean Collins's pick and I.

I don't. Interesting.

Yeah. I don't know.

I'm not going to. I'm not going to dog that guy.

By the way. He won the street sets.

You know what the street sets last year?

Sovereignty. Sovereignty.

Yeah. There you go.

I, I, I. Look, if you told me you were

out of credible, I wouldn't fight you, man.

Yeah, well, then, then this one, I think he's I think he's worth

a play. I will play him.

I think that he he's a horse that likes it find interesting.

Another one Pavlovian you know now.

The. Speed, the speed made.

But the thing I like about Pavlovian, 10 career starts and

the joker, he's like Joe Frazier.

He will get in there and he will fight you to the finish, you

know. So I think Pavlovian is another

very interesting horse. Edwin Maldonado, great gate

jockey, I don't think he needs be on the lead, but if he can be

up there in the first flight and if they turn for home, you know

he's going to give you all he's got going down the stretch.

Edwin Maldonado into ride from California.

And Barry, this is kind of a reminder Danny too.

Just because you're a Cal bred doesn't mean you want to run in

California. It doesn't mean it always is

good for you, right? No, but you know you and I do

you and I look at you know you and I look at the past

performances in California every week.

It's amazing how often a Florida breds win in the races out

there. Whatever else, right?

It doesn't mean that a Cal bred has to run well in those Cal

bred races. Gets out of the gets out of

California, wins the Sunland Derby, run 2nd and Louisiana

Derby and everybody thinks a ton of emerging market.

Why can't you think a bunch about Pavlovi?

And of course Doug O'neilly, 2 time winner of the Kentucky

Derby as well. Edwin Maldonado gets them out

here for him. So you are on the 18 today.

Further ADO, are you happy he got out of the 17 hole?

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think it's all good,

you know, it's all good. It's all good indeed.

Well, Danny, have a great day today, buddy.

I hope to run Indy out there and then give everybody a little bit

more. You're at Sports Brew and horse

Racing Scoop. Yeah.

Yeah, at Sports Brew on Twitter, horse racing, scoop.com is my

website. You can catch me on forbes.com

and you're you'll just guys remember if you got a hunch, you

bet a bunch you're back a horse and get paid.

There it is. And I want to, I want to find

out where your your grill master show is.

Yeah. What are we doing?

Where are we doing that? So that'll be on my YouTube

channel, TuneIn. That'll be a sidebar off of the

Horse Racing Scoop channel. So, so here we go have our our

Green Egg feature. They'll be coming up for for

Preakness because I can't, I won't be able to join you some

family commitments and stuff like that, but I will have the

Green Egg feature on the horse racing scoop so y'all can check

that out. Horse racing, smoking hour.

I'll do cigars, he'll do meats. I think that sounds good,

actually. There you.

Go yeah, let's do. It, I'm just telling you.

All right, we'll get it together.

Danny, you're the man. We appreciate you very much.

Have a great Derby. Thanks guys all.

Right there you go, Danny Brewer down there in Smyrna, TN.

But of course, up here hanging out considers Churchill his home

track. I like that.

Similar from any of us. Yes, well, there you go All

right, 437 not you, but people 437 that's.

In between 2 tracks you. Really are on the other end.

We'll wrap up the hour, talk a couple more races, get you ready

for race. Where am I, out of my show

sheet. Here we are.

I'll get you ready for a race of race 3 as well, which will come

up right around noon. We'll do a quick pick for that

one. We'll talk to Steve Kornacki

from NBC Sports at noon, Carlos Morales from Ahente, Trey

Cerocinco at 12 O 40 and roll along through the one O clock

hour with you as well. We've got you till 2.

This is the Horse Racing Happy hour Kentucky Derby preview show

on ESPN. 680-1057 Taxer Republic paid 1.1 million for the six

horse in that race. Yikes.

And I feel I feel bad when I lose a $10 bet. 437-9680 UPS

jobs tax line. So let his third start.

He'll be fine. He's already got to win.

What are we doing here? 437-9680, 502-437-9680 UPS jobs

tax line. Make sure you get it in with us

that way. Noon, we'll talk with our guys,

Steve Kornacki from NBC Sports and of course at 12:40 with our

friend from down there in the three O 5, Carlos Morales, the

hardest working man in a horse racing.

That's probably actually in media, cuz look, I'm not putting

a backside worker down. We're not doing that today.

But as far as media, no one's more everywhere than Carlos

Morales. Yeah, like I don't think it's

close. Nope.

I met his lady, by the way. That's an understanding human

being. He's got to be.

That's an understanding human being.

Yeah, my guy Carlos is underwear.

It's ridiculous. ANYWAYS, literally everywhere.

Literally everywhere. I'm kind of convinced there's

actually two of them and he's one of those guys.

Say that to me and I go, how about that guy?

How? About that guy, that's exactly

right. Race 2 in the books at church

Rachel Downs and I said that I thought we might get a Triple

Crown race runner out of it and I think out of the woods

absolutely fits into that. A son of constitution 3 year old

gelding John Velasquez rides here.

You were saying, man, go to the Preakness.

I think we'll see this one. I I don't know why Phil the

model wouldn't try the bell model with that horse if it it

because this field is good right.

This is a good secondary 3 year old field of later developers.

I don't know that watch, just remember the name.

Out of the woods constitution, I mean.

I'm just saying all of the things are there.

Yeah, that's 100 and whatever $20,000 race.

I mean, like that. It's not a schmuck race, man.

That's all I'm saying. And so.

You can some good horses. Fantastic.

Was basically on. Essentially a great 3 minus

there and so go try the Belmont after that would not be so

surprising if they ended up doing that before 37968 UPS jobs

text line. Let's go ahead and give out a

pick for Race 3, Barry, which is one of the better races on the

card. 14 field of 14. I like this race.

I like this race too. They're going the mile, one turn

mile I should say here and they're running for $134,000.

You and I both have the four and the tenant are handicapping, but

in different orders. You landed on the 10 on top here

in Vibe. Yeah, that's a by the way,

that's a word not allowed on Rabo and Co.

OK, I note to self. The vibes are Immaculate.

Like thing I can't do. It's not, it's not a.

That's not my. I may just be a little too old,

Barry Spears. It might just be one of those

things. I'm not sure.

That's not my vibe, but whatever.

One of those things. Oh man.

Vibe is 2 for two or two for his last two, two for three overall.

Brooke has made an at Gulfstream going a mile after being

transferred to Todd Pletcher. Yep.

And then built upon that. Came back off that layoff from

April 20, April 19th, 2025 to March 14th, 2026.

Came back again, came back running.

I like that. Yep, he sets himself up.

This. This horse is going to run

today. I've got vibe second in my

handicapping. We're talking Race 3 coming up

next. 12 O 5 out there at Churchill Downs.

Kaport is going to be my top pick.

It's my long shot play for the early sequence.

Barry is a horse that we saw early in its two year old

career. Really great across the street

at Churchill Downs, Bashford Manor and all of that.

The Juvenile at Ellis Park was the breakout race for this

horse. Try the Iroquois in the fall

before trying the Breeders Cup. Juvenile just wasn't ready.

Slop at Keeneland was not a good thing for this horse.

Gets Lasix for the first time, which I love.

We're throwing the blinkers on. Try to get this one to settle

into a better trip. I'm going to try to get a shot

with with Jose Ortiz here and Eddie Canneilly, who's off to a

really good start this. Yeah, I I think this horse has a

really good shot, especially with the class relief here.

Didn't like the the mud over at Keeneland April 3rd.

I'll forgive that. Getting blinkers, getting Jose

Ortiz, it spells like this horse is going to do some running to.

This to me is a Derby day kind of race where you've got

fourteen horses. You can look at a 15 to 1 and

feel confident and frankly, if you're a casual better, you

could bet the four across the board today.

It's still make money. It's still make money.

A show bet on the 4:30. By one right now.

There you go. So I'm just telling you like,

you know, if you're a $10 a race player, 3 bucks across the board

and comport is not a ridiculous play today at all.

That is a lovely one. It's frankly why I love this

day. Yeah, exactly.

You could have a lot of fun trying to pick off a couple of

those horses today. Again, we'll talk with Steve

Kornacki, NBC Sports up next. I I got, I got some for Steve.

We got a problem. Not a problem I don't like.

I. We got a problem.

He said meeting all this week. Yeah, we got a problem.

We got, I got, we got a problem with Steve Kornacki.

It's OK. We'll talk about it next.

We'll get there. I'm not happy about it.

I don't like it either. We both like Steve.

I don't like it. He was on the Derby draft this

year. By the way, I should pull up the

results of the Derby draft right now.

That's actually what we should do.

So on Sunday we had the Derby Draft, our 6th annual Kentucky

Derby draft with our on the horse racing.

Oh, my horses are out. So you had the Puma?

Puma. OK, well, Chief Wallaby's

running, Pavlovian's running, Dan and Bourbon's running.

Right to party is back. Oh, Sally's running.

Boy, you got a bum draft, dude. Now I was looking good draft

day, you know what I'm saying? Steve has further ado.

So happy. Full effort litmus test golden

tempo in Corona del Oro. So he's really leaning on

further ado and so happy. Fell into a good trip here.

Mac, our friend Mackenzie Pfeiffer at Maryland Jockey

Club, Renegade, Incredible emerging market.

Wanderdean Robusta at 6 speed all of the race.

I needed those those those glasses.

I feel like she had. I needed those glasses.

She had to see into the future. I've got commandment patente.

You guys take an emerging market from me.

I thought I was going to get him later.

Silent tactic. Bach.

Intrepido. Let's call it Bach.

Elvis, let's call it Bach. But I got great white.

Great White's the rich striker this year.

He's the rich coming off the synthetic.

I just went in the number honestly.

I do too. John is such a good guy.

John Ennis is such a good trainer.

If he's in the top four, that's fantastic.

If he's top three, it's life changing for John Ennis, It

really is. It's just John.

It's life changing, it really is.

So I wouldn't hate that at all. John's really good guy.

Literally you were here and you know, we hear you know.

Hey. Oh, who scratched out then?

Oh, it was it was silent tactic. Silent tactics scratched out

great whites in the field. I text John.

Can you jump on radio? And he's like, yeah.

I was like, is is is 11 OK. Yeah.

Could you do Would you prefer Ted 40?

Yeah, I'd prefer Ted 40. Both jumped on called him great

stuff. So I appreciate him jumping on

one of our guys based year round here in Kentucky.

We even talked to him the other day.

Barry. And this is when you realize

what the Kentucky Derby really does mean to trainers.

And he's like, yeah, well, yeah, you move here to win this race.

Yes, absolutely. That's awesome.

That's a good stuff. That's.

A really good, you know, quotable line there.

But it's it's very, very true. You talk to anybody on the

backside. You know, honestly, a lot of

people have either gotten into the sport, especially betters,

and you know, just with the idea of winning the Kentucky Derby

for betters is is placing that bet.

For trainers, it's getting that horse ready for it, for jockeys

riding the winning horse, and for horses it's all the

peppermints you can handle. Being screamed at by about

125,000 people. Yeah, that's exactly right.

Oh man 437-9680 UPS jobs tax line.

Steve Kornacki will join us in about 10 minutes.

Our picks in race three are also up at horseracinghappyhour.com.

All of our picks are up there for free.

All week long we've been doing that a bunch of pick 3 plays

from me. Barry's got a pick 3, three win

place bets at a daily double for you to check out at the site as

well cost you nothing like I said, so if we're wrong, deal

with it. That's funny.

That's funny. And that was actually for my

buddy David, who I know is listening and is is like, wait,

are people complaining about you doing free work like?

Need to get out. We we gave out some winners

yesterday. Where's the Where's the guy?

Where is he? Where are you?

Where's the guy? Where are you gave out the try

on the oaks? Didn't we?

You did. Oh, you did.

You personally did. Yeah.

What are we doing? I don't give me any credit here.

We were going through earlier stakes early today, Barry, but

you know, going through the the fifth race here in the turf

Sprint, we didn't really get into it too hard.

I said I'm interested in those Shakertown runners.

Did you land on somebody though ear in Race 5 coming up in just

about an hour? Well, Race 5I mean these early

races are actually really good. Usually you kind of get these

lopsided events. Yeah, some superstar just shows

up and yeah, right goes. Yeah, like race.

Well, that happened yesterday. Too because our showed up didn't

win so. Race 4, for example, is kind of

one of those races where Ways and Means and splendor kind of

dominate that event. Fair enough.

OK. But the.

Techs are the guy abides. He's right there.

Yeah, the. Turf Sprint is wide open man.

Like we saw a lot of these horses run in in the Shaker town

over at Keeneland. But I'm going to go with the

horse that I like that day that just didn't get out of the gate.

And it's it's Bourbon 30. I'm going back to this horse.

I liked him that day. He didn't get out of the gate

and really just lost all chance at the at the start.

May have needed that race anyway.

Getting back on the turf after the synthetic, Yeah.

Yeah, and and. But this is one that's won at

Churchill over the 5 1/2 minute 3.

He's 2 for four at the distance. I I think he's gonna be flying

way under the radar. Here this horse before it got to

the Shakertown was running lights out and it made sense why

they entered this one in that race.

Go second in the four go. That was a loaded 4 go.

It was. A loaded GT500's in there banjo

Chris is in there that's a loaded version of the four go,

which is a weird thing to say out loud but yes it was a great,

great version back in February right before Valentine's Day but

the yeah the comeback in that race second essentially up off

that layoff here see if Jeremiah Ward can get it done well

Machado. Hey man, he's he's as good as

anyone on the. Support No, they just didn't get

a great start and that's what compromised their chances.

I I liked them that day and I'm going to like them here again.

Yeah, 69 and eight for Barry. In the Shakertown, I went 3-9

and seven. So we agree on the 9 horse

there. I landed on the three.

I'm going back to that Shakertown.

I think the horses that ran best there will do it again.

Jose Ortiz has enjoyed his mounts aboard My Boy Prince, who

was second in the fourth Star or fourth in the four-star Dave

last year, if you remember him there did a lot of the work in

that race before just running out of gas and what was a very,

very good mile race. But he'll get back to the

distance this year at 5, five and a half and he's been great

in all of those races. He'll come from slightly off the

pace here. Barry, who do you think sets the

pace it race? That's a tough one, too.

There's a lot of speed horses in here.

You got horses like Full disclosure, who's a big long

shot that has a lot of speed. Joe Sheisty is probably going to

be on the end. I think he's trying to get,

he'll try to get the lead. He was really good. the Shakers

out too. Man, he certainly was.

He got we. Were there for that one.

He's a good horse. Man, he got to the front.

I I'm not really sure if turf is really what his bag is.

I I think he's more of a synthetic horse honestly.

But he's a good turf horse, too. Yeah, he's, he's certainly

formidable on turf. He has a lot of speed.

You leave him out there by himself, he'll he'll make you

pay. No, it's exactly right for

Fernando de la Cruz. Almost, said Francisco de la

Cruz. That's not his name.

Fernando de la Cruz keeps them out here.

Hasn't been to Churchill for a race yet, but that is for Eric

Foster. Eric Foster, trainer of.

Rich Strike. There you go, Rich Strikes

trainer back in here on Derby day in Race 5 with A10 horse Joe

Scheiste. We'll talk to Steve Kornacki

next from NBC. Get his thoughts on the Derby

field itself. Barry.

Let's go back though. Back going back to the future,

we Doc Brown and Marty. Horses on the Derby trail that

you have seen in person? We go to Renegade first.

You saw him in the Sam? Yes.

How good is this horse? He's very good.

I mean, he finished up so strong and it it got my attention.

Like literally, I was standing at the at the wire and I was

like, wow, that horse flew home. And then sure enough, he goes to

Arkansas and you saw it. You see it?

I seemed to. Yeah, think I.

Said I heard it. I heard it from our guy Matt

Dinnerman as well. Called the race down there.

I am the thing with running. Express reference.

I like that. I like that.

I wonder with Renegade Man, especially the one hole.

So something we talk about a lot at sports talk radio is winning

cures everything, right? And so, you know, you know, Bill

Belichick could be prickly as he wants in Boston as long as the

the Patriots are winning, right? And David can yell at people at

Alabama, as long as they're winning, whatever it is, right?

And, and I'm not saying that those are they're bad guys or

whatever else. It's just, you know, you could

be whatever you are. Danny Hurley's a psychopath, but

his teams go deep in the tournament all the time.

So we just let it go, OK? Dude's a psycho.

It's OK. Clearly.

Are we, are we making the one hole excuses this year in the

Derby because we think Renegade's really good?

I think we are, yeah, of course, I think that's why, because

before this we would have just been like line, line.

Every other pleasure loved him for every.

Other pleasure 3 out of 6, whatever he's giving us the stat

that's been in the one, we've just been like we're done.

Renegade, I feel like is the first horse in the Derby that

we've really given a shot coming out of the.

Yeah, yeah, a real, a real chance.

But I love it because of the fact that I don't think they

have a shot. I told you I learned my lesson

with known agenda a couple years ago.

They either have to try what explorer did last night and go

to the front and get cooked that way or try to loop the field.

Just two terrible options for a short priced horse.

No thank you. He could beat me.

I mean he's talented enough to overcome this and if there is a

horse that could it's definitely renegade.

But not with my 2. Dollars, all right?

Not with your two dollars 437-680 our UPS job site.

Remember that I want my $2.00. Let's take a break here on the

other end. Better off dead there's.

So many references. It's OK.

Like I just have you. Seen that movie Better Off Dead?

How? Long does that go?

Did that come out? Oh man, Oh, before you were

born. Pull.

Thank you. It's German.

I'm trying to have a nice day. What are you doing?

More references next in this field.

And so maybe this one could try to work out a trip here.

And do you know why I like the spot Barry is because think

about Point Doom trying the Churchill Downs.

That horse is 15 to one in the in the Churchill Downs.

I think that's the right number for that horse, right?

And that's not putting down Point Doom at all.

I just think that's where they're at.

I think this spot being the restricted stakes, that kind of

thing makes a lot of sense for being here.

Yeah, they definitely do. They're they're going to be

tough in this is race, but I think this race in general is

tough. I just don't like that running

style that BU employs because I think they're just going to be

too far out of it. A little bit off the layoff for

Chris Block here in Moonlight. Barry on the outside.

Jose Ortiz keeps the mount one on this one in the Cherokee Mile

right here at Churchill after Thanksgiving last year, going

that one turn mile. I think getting back to the

distance makes a ton of sense. 3 for five at Churchill Downs

Moonlight, I think a real, real competitor.

Yeah, a lot of class relief here.

This this horse drops in to a very winnable spot.

You can see in the past performances that this horse

comes from way out of it, but that was at a tougher class

level. They're going to be a little bit

closer to the pace this time. Again, it's tough to be out

there trying to close, but Jose Ortiz is just hot as a pistol

so. It's unbelievable how good he's

been this meeting. Don't.

Coming into Oaks Day, he was 5 for 12 with four third place

finishes. He was in the money 9 of 12

races to start the week here at Churchill Downs.

We're talking race 6 right now. I've got the in race 6 I went

411 and 10. Barry, the tennis capital idea

Junior Alvarado for Bill Mott, Go Zappers second place

finisher. I think getting back to the one

Turner here will be really good one for one lifetime at

Churchill as well. I just think getting back to the

mile itself where the horse is 3 for six makes a ton of sense.

After the 6th horse you had the 11, but then you went to the two

horse toward the inside in Dragoon guard.

Like I said, I agree with you. This is 1/4 of my handy.

Capping, yeah. I mean the way the track is

playing Dragoon guard should be even money.

People haven't been passing yet but it's still early in the

card. Maybe get a little raindrops and

might change some things but as of right now Dragoon guard might

have the the little bit of an edge.

All of our picks up at horse racing happy hour a.com.

I'm actually using that as a guide through right now.

Race 7 today Barry starts a little after 230 the Distaff

turf mile Distaff. If you hear that term means the

ladies are running. This is for Phillies and Bears 4

and up. It's a grade 2 Barry, a million

on the line and a couple in here that people may you've seen

before, including Sweet Rebecca, winner of the Sand Springs.

That horse, My gosh, I don't know why, but every time that

horse gets done working out, gets a bath, they throw the Sand

Springs winner. You know, the blanket on the

horse every day. So the horse must love the

blanket, which is very funny. Or Brandon Walsh is randomly

proud of winning the Sand Springs.

They're randomly proud or the owner, you know, maybe

Resolute's like, hey, we want a stakes race, keep that.

On there, yeah, Beef Stew, probably, but. 2 for two this

year, both of those at Gulfstream Park and I gotta say

the turf form has travelled well out of Gulfstream this year and

has been good at Keeneland, it has been good at other places.

I expect Sweet Rebecca to run really well here.

Yeah, and the dirt form hasn't, honestly.

Isn't that interesting? Yeah.

And we've talked a lot about that Florida Derby.

A lot of people are gonna have a lot of money based on that

Florida Derby today. Yeah.

So it's, it's really tough read, but you're right about the turf

horses. Although I I do like Sweet

Rebecca as a horse in general, I just don't like them in this

spot. And almost certainly in your

case at 5:00 to 2:00, you wouldn't like that kind of

number. Definitely not OK, not not

coming off that kind of a win. It it, you know, I was there

that day she won the Sand Springs and she was completely

exhausted. I actually put up a video of her

coming back and you'll see that horse was just huffing and

puffing, which didn't really I I was kind of put off by a little

bit, but she she definitely, it's not like she's not fit.

She could win this race for sure, but I I just just doesn't

seem right. I landed on portfolio duration

here. Every Chad Brown horse today

looks excellent. And I mean this as nicely as I

can. I, I just think he's doing

something different than everyone else is doing right

now. And I this weekend especially,

I'm going to stop. I'm going to stop pretending

that I'm smarter than what's in front of me.

And Chad Brown's having one of those weekends, man, I'm leaning

on the three here in Race 7 in the Distaff.

She's never been in stakes company.

She has two wins and one of them's in a 32 allowance at

Tampa and I'm just assuming she's going to step in here and

be fine. Am I out of my mind?

Well, you know how he's a good judge of talent, especially on

the grass. Unbelievable.

So you got to think automatically this horse can

step up and win a race like this, but he can't win them all.

That's that's my view of it and. So are you tossing the two and

the three? In here I'm not tossing, I'm

tossing the two. I'm using the three.

OK, you landed on the six in here at a Peschitsa piloted Vina

Arana, an Irish bred Jack sisters and trains 5 year old

daughter of make believe eve. That's out of the mock feline

and Teo Filo on the damn side. Grass grass grass grass grass

grass grass grass grass. I assume that's at least part of

why you like this horse. Yeah, absolutely part of it.

But this horse's story since they've been in the United

States really paints the picture of why I like this horse.

They want to race at Churchill going this mile distance back in

November pretty easily at a decent price at 7:00 to 1:00

that day and and beat a a nice field.

Then they went to the My Charmer at Turfway, which I don't think

this horse has won any part of the synthetic.

That that horse has very clearly shown even overseas that they

wants nothing to. Do not want any.

Part I agree. So.

That was at Dundalk, where they like that people hold up that

synthetic. That's that's a tough place to

to win races. So you can put a line through

that one. They laid the horse off, came

back April 10th of this year and ran a nice race off the bench.

Obviously with this race in mind, I think this horse can

step up because that horse came back running in that April 10th

race at Keeneland and and should be running again here.

We'll probably get a better trip because they're not so close to

the rail being right in the middle of everything is, is

probably where this horse wants to be.

I think they're going to be. If you want to know what Jack

Sisters thinks of this horse, don't forget that my charmer is

one of the synthetic championship races.

Yeah, so he put this horse in a race in December on a surface

that it's not great on and lost to Caitlin or Greatness, who by

the way is a synthetic monster. OK, I worry about no Lasix with

this horse. I don't know why, but it's

something I worry about with this horse.

Obviously was fine in the Mukta the the mood of Makena, excuse

me when she ran at Leopardstown in May of 2024, but man, that

was a long time ago. It's been on Lasix since.

The only time she wasn't was in that My Charmer where she

finished 7th by 14 1/2 Lanksbury leaning on the 6th there.

A long shot sort of play of the day.

The four horse though, temptable, I think it's an

interesting one here. What do you like about her?

This was one that Francis Henri Grafar brought over with Gazora

for the Breeders Cup and ran on that undercard in the Goldacova

where she was nowhere to be found.

Why do you think she can bounce back here?

Well, it was caught on the way outside.

They were the 11 of 11 horses that day.

Didn't get the best of trips. Gets way better post relief here

no doubt and has some races to go back to.

Those races overseas were no slouches.

I mean, there were stakes races they were winning, a few of them

very competitive and all of them some against the boys.

They beat the boys back in July of last year.

I think they're going to be really tough in this spot.

Little flying under the radar because you know, the past

performances look like they do from overseas.

You don't know really what you're going to get unless you

kind of dig in and and watch some video. 3rd of my

handicapping is pin up Betty Mike Maker barn.

I thought he did some good work in the Jenny Wiley, especially

being the first race in about 5 months.

Barry. Last out at Keeneland, a Grade 1

I think actually a little bit of class relief in this race of all

things and so I think he'd get back to that good form.

You and I have been singing his praises.

Why would I not go back to Juan Hernandez, who, by the way, was

aboard this horse last year in this race, Barry, I lost my

neck. That was to simply in front who

got up at the very last moment. Pin Up Betty was in this race,

of course, alongside move moving on up, who's also in here.

Once again, I'll take Pin Up Betty in the third spot.

Mike Maker, winless so far in the meet at Churchill Downs, but

his off to a great start, 17% around the country with his

many, many starters there. Move on to race 8.

We're previewing the undercard here at Kentucky Derby Day.

It's a horse racing happy hour. Barry Spears, Luis Rebeau,

Taylor, Bruno Meso hanging out with us as well.

Back behind the glass there at ESPN 680-1057, the Pat de Mile

one day on one day, one mile on the on the on the dirt here,

$750,000. By the way, this is where we

need to pause the show and not so you can say Pat de Mile like

Brian Lynch once again, we're not doing that today, but I need

to be. I need to be transparent on this

show. We had Brad Cox on.

It's one of my favorite things that that's happened to be at

2026. We had Brad Cox on Blood Horse

Monday a couple weeks ago and he was talking about where his

horses would be placed. And you know, it's that time of

year, Barry, where you're like, hey, this horse just ran in this

prep and they ran second. What are you thinking about now?

Instead of obviously go to Oaks and Derby and one of those other

stuff, please come out of the air.

Tell me what's going on. We're going to a post here post

time. Oh, post time.

All right, here's. Them so Full disclosure breaks

right out in stride. Joe Scheiste hustled out of

there from the far outside my boy Prince and litigation and

yellow card. It's Bourbon 30 Wendelson down

inside in tight was Bear River and then it's Mondo gets buckets

second to last early and the trailer is Posi Lamente Joe

Scheiste from the outside post to the rail as they head for the

far turn. Joe Scheiste leads yellow card

is up into second and perched out three wide litigation in

third. Full disclosure broke on top

back forth inside my boy Princess 5th Bear River 4 wide

trying to move up from 6th. It's bourbon 30 in a bit tight

there, 7th and then farther back in the field, Mondo gets

buckets. Angles to the far outside as

Wendelson sticks to the rail. Top of the stretch.

Joe Scheiste confronted by yellow card and litigation and

Full disclosure, trying to hang tough inside.

My boy Prince trying to come through between horses.

Joe Scheiste and litigation and yellow card and my boy Prince

and posi blemente driving finish.

Yellow card, got it. Yellow card up late.

Joe Scheiste right there. Posi blemente litigation, my

boy, Prince and Mondo gets buckets.

Oh, there you go another great finish on the turf Derby day

here the was that the 9 or the seven that got up there?

I saw the seven horse just got up in yellow card third in my

handicapping here was part of the pick three.

Had we gotten to that point. But yes, 7 horse goes ahead and

wins in race 5. What was the final number on

him, by the way, 5? To two.

OK. Five to two in that one, was he

the favorite at the time? We got no litigation choice.

OK, second choice. OK, there you go so the payouts

on that one very likely the double will pay 28 to 1 and the

wow pick 3 will pay almost 400 to one for that one pick 3

plays. So I pay the that's why I play

the pick threes on Derby day. This is really my 50 centers

are. Worth a lot and if you can.

GO-333 in those races, it's 10:50 to play them and you can

kind of roll through that way. Before that race though, Barry,

we were talking about race, Race 8, the Pat Day Mile and I wanted

to go back because in the 8 bells yesterday, Brad Cox wins

the race. OK.

And after and and with a girl with a horse named on time girl,

an on time girl. She she won the forward gal,

which was at 7 furlongs right the grade three event at

Gulfstream end of January. She runs third in the Devona

Dale, which is A1 turn mile. And and I said to Brad, I said,

look, you know, it didn't work out.

Maybe try her the Pat Day Mile, she said.

You know what? The bells will be just fine.

Louis, how about I trade horses and you and you worry about

radio? OK, One of the great moments of

my life. And then you know what she did?

When's the a bell? When's the a bell?

That's the good stuff for sure. I texted Charlotte College

yesterday and all I said was this Brad Cox guy.

But I know a little bit about this stuff, huh?

Just a little bit smidge smidge. Buddy, but there you go, the Pat

Mile. Had to do it today you and I

Very excited to see a third time starter.

His name is Crude Velocity. He'll break from the 6th in Race

8, the Pat Day Mile. Yeah, I'm really excited to see

this horse run just super fast. I like when fast horses run fast

and they show it on the big days.

I mean it's like shred the NAR actually yesterday.

I like when horses cool and they just take it cool yesterday and

and just finish things off. It's just a great thing to

watch. Crude velocity will break from

the 6th. The son of Bo Liam quarter

$1,000,000 purchase at the OBS sale in March of last year.

And I I man not March excuse me but in 2025 this is a horse

Berry. I always watch the Baffert lines

when I see 3 year olds especially doing 6 furlong

works. I know that's a horse that

Baffert really is trying to get more fitness.

Yes. And so this one bullet at 5

pulls back to four. Last work before the ship is a

six furlong bullet at Say. 111. I mean, that's a winning time

today. Right.

And that's just work on run 111, no?

They just don't do it. And so I'm I'm very much looking

forward to seeing crude velocity in that race.

But we get a set of milers this year, Barry, that is actually

had a pretty good miler, 3 year old class, right?

And I'm sure some of them will turn into sprinters and some of

them may stretch out to 8 and a half, 9 furlong kind of horses

here. But crude velocity seems to fit

in that group where we're going to try to figure out.

I think the only question here is does he want to do any

furlongs? Yeah, that's the only question.

Yeah, because otherwise he's very there.

Who's your second spot here in the Pat, Damon?

You know, this was, this was a really strange race because the

horse that I really liked is actually running in the Derby,

which is Great White. I really wanted to see Great

White run in this race, but we're not going to do that so.

Like the only scratch on this one.

By the way, we will have an 11 horse field for the Pat de Ball,

Yeah. There it is, Stop the car and

Secured Freedom. Really other horses that I like

underneath at prices more so Secured Freedom because of the

fact that I like this horse out there on the Derby Trail.

But it just kind of looked like after the San Felipe that this

horse doesn't want to go around the ground and and cutting back

would be the right thing to do. Tim Yaktine, who I personally

think is as sharp as any trainer in the United States, gets this

horse in this spot and I think they they have a good shot to

run behind Crude Velocity here. A third place finish in the the

rubber B Lewis behind the Trepido.

Yeah, and they got a wide trip that day.

For Tark as well, who was the the buzz horse of the Baffert

barn at the time, ran behind Patente, of course in the San

Felipe, but was fourth behind Patente Robusta and so happy.

Guess where those three horses are going to be today?

Derby. Yeah, the Derby.

That's exactly right. Secured Freedom 20 to one on the

morning line, as he mentioned. Tim Yachteen, the move to John

Velasquez. Do you like that for this race?

Kazushi's in town. Which would you have preferred?

Johnny V Yeah, me too. OK, nothing against Kazushi, but

I mean Johnny VS in in in the the rebirth renaissance of his

career and just he, he put a a nice ride on him earlier today.

The Lafayette winner for Greg Foley, trouble calling his in

here broke his maiden at the fairgrounds.

We saw some of that fairgrounds for him really translate

yesterday on the card. Barry up here at Churchill.

What do you make of trouble calling in this spot?

Neither of us have him in our handicap.

It's a tough read because he's going to have to be part of the

pace. I think that's one of the

reasons why Louis Size is a board.

But you got a really fast horse and Englishman inside and I

think this pace might heat up a bit and whoever is in that

second flight is really going to have a good shot to win this

race. But I don't think trouble

calling is going to be that kind of horse because if they let

Englishman go besides that with with crude velocity, who I think

is going to be right on that flank, I don't think they really

want the lead unless, you know, Bob just tells Florent just go

for it, right. And that, that's certainly.

That case exists, right? That's that's possible, but I

think he's going to try to stick to their flank and and and

overpower him in the stretch. But either way, I just don't

think the two really has a good shot to win this race.

Races 9:10 and 11:00. We will preview those in the

next segment. We'll go through the Derby field

and give you our final picks at 140.

Wrap up the show thanks to our friends at Derby Box at

derbybox.com, Kentucky H, BPA, KYHBP, a.com, and of course, our

friend Doctor Chet Mays at Doctor Chet Mays on the socials

in Kentucky, hair transplant, kentucky.com as well.

Three more races in the next segment.

Derby Talk to close it out. We do it next, early returns on

the prime time Oaks. By the way, a total handle on

the Kentucky Oaks smashes the previous record up about 17 1/2

percent, up 19 1/2% versus last year.

Under the lights, probably for a while.

Barry Spears on the oak side of things, 437-9680 is UPS jobs

text line. We're going through the

undercard here. Kentucky Derby Day, Happy Derby

152 to you and yours. Horse racing happy Hour, hanging

out with you for about another half hour.

The American turf, one of the races we always look forward to

every year. Barry, the Grade one event, 4

three-year olds mile on the 16th on the turf here at Churchill

Downs. Stark contrast is in here,

Barry, and a horse that you and I have been lucky enough to see

a couple of different times. A second place finisher in the

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, frankly, was part of that pace

throughout. Kazushi Kimura loses the mount

here. Flavian Pratt picks it up.

I'm obviously not mad about that.

This is a horse that I really, really like.

I think the only question is does he want the 8 1/2 furlongs?

Yes. And yes.

This is much like Crude Velocity, another horse that I

really want to see run today because I think this horse has

the potential to put on a show. Crude velocity of course in race

A in the pad de mile will move on now and we're talking about

the American turf race 9 stark contrast last seen in the Jeff

Ruby Stakes the aimerman's own this horse Barry so there was

legitimate question if he would go in the Derby or not as they

owned endlessly a couple of years ago.

Frankly, this horse and his results feels a lot like

endlessly. Should be interesting to see how

he runs here and where they move him moving forward.

Because the real question for him if he does win today, which

I think he, well, I want to be clear is how good is he and

where does he go next? Because if he's out in

California, how many races are there where we think of him as

running against other horses in his quality?

Or is a guy like Michael McCarthy going to have to put

him in Saratoga this summer and try to figure it out?

Yeah, I think he's going to have to kind of go with that circuit

with the with the major horses at this level.

I will say if he likes in here, he might run again here in,

right. I mean, that's a real

possibility. Michael.

Just leave him here. Yeah.

Michael McCarthy leaves a string at Churchill so.

He's got a serious part here. You've seen him.

Right, right. So I think this horse would fit

right in. Get a couple prep races and then

look towards the Breeders Cup. If this horse runs anywhere near

that stod race we're gonna he might run away from this field.

Yeah, and that's what I'm hoping for today.

Yeah, it would be fun. That exactly was a very, very

good one for me in the Breeders company now.

But man, he packed it right up in the Eddie Logan.

Burgundy. I love that they brought him

back in the Eddie Logan. They were like, he's ready to

go, It's January. We know it's a list of stakes.

We don't carry, goes ahead. He wins that one easy, and then

he comes back in that Jeff Ruby Stakes, finishes behind Full

Effort, who, if he were running in the Derby today, I think

would be what, 6th, 7th favorite, eighth favorite,

something like that, and he'd be right in that.

Group half of the field. For sure, My goodness, yes.

And frankly, I think by the time we got to post, if a bunch of

people saw him around 2224 to 1, you might see some money coming

in on him. Like if I get 20 to one on a

Brad Cox trainee who finishes who finished as well as he did

on synthetic might be able to, you know, get a.

Value. I mean, you would think that a

horse like Stark Contrast wouldn't really enjoy the

synthetic enough to win over it in a in a race like the Ruby,

and they didn't, but they ran awfully good.

And now getting back to the preferred surface, this source

should be. 4:10 and 12:00 for me Brendan Walsh trains Vasi in

here. John Velasquez picks up the

mount out of that third place finish in the Transylvania by

3/4 of a length one the goal of the Colonel Liam before that.

I just like that this horse is always there.

We heard our our friend Steve Kornacki in the previous hour

say going to be there at the finish.

You know part of the equation stealing words for me.

But yes, I think I think the 12:50 price makes a lot of

sense. You know daughter excuse me a

son of space Blues here like Vasi makes a lot of sense.

You want a different spot in the number two, You're going to go

to the rail with the horse and St. beast.

Yeah, I thought St. Beast is actually flying a

little bit under the radar here because of the fact that this

horse ran in that synthetic race or two synthetic races and one

one of them. Did win the Leonidas and by the

way, who beat beat who? Where full effort be full effort

in that race. That's right.

You know, and then came back, lost a great white and full

effort in that Battaglia, which you can kind of toss.

It just didn't really get settled.

I I don't know. Yeah, Horse was like rattled in

the gate. There was something going on

that day. He did not like that day.

Yeah, and, and, and it showed. He ran like it, then came out of

that and ran into Transylvania, went right to the lead and faded

late. I think this horse has a little

bit of a pace advantage. There's not much speed in this

race. It should be pretty slow up

front and it looks like him in stark contrast might be 1-2 all

the way around. Race 10 will start the pick

three leading into the Kentucky Derby.

It's the Grade 1 Churchill Downs.

This race last year, Barry was one of the great races in all of

2025. That blanket finish of four

horses, Nice O back off, Nice O's off the layoff banishing

there. And of course, in that group as

well was the horse that's back this year.

Boy, now what? Now I'm definitely forgetting

where is that brace, but not in here.

Of course is mind frame, but Nisos vanishing back in here 12

to 1. Barry.

I know both of us are happy to see him back sprinting.

Knightsbridge in here though you are.

You and I are taking a different tact.

I'm going to be leaning on him in this spot.

You're going to try to beat him. Why are you trying to beat him?

Other than value? Why would you try to beat

Knightsbridge here? I I have a lot of reservations

on the competition that he's been facing and stepping up into

this particular spot. You know, you got an

international horse in imagination who won going in the

Riyadh Dirt Sprint back in February on Valentine's Day and

Knightsbridge hasn't been facing the best of company.

I mean, as good of a horse as super Chow is isn't this caliber

same thing with steel sunshine. This the source beat those 2.

Not very many big fields or anything, or really hasn't seen

a horse in a while in front of him really, and I think they

might do that today. So I think that opens this race

up quite a bit. Texts are asking if the

synthetic is slower or faster than dirt.

Essentially how it works is the fastest surface we have in North

American racing is grass of all things.

Actually, turf racing tends to be a little bit faster.

Certainly the sprints, the mile races are faster on turf.

Barry. We usually expect mile races at

high level in the turf to be one 33134 dirt races, closer to 136,

something like that. But synthetic, we would expect

around like 138 for good synthetic races.

So it's the slowest of the three, which is why full effort

coming in off a sub 159 furlong Jeff Ruby Stakes, you could kind

of look at that and go, man, if he likes the dirt at all well.

Not only that. I mean, he might be fast enough

to win this thing it. Wasn't super cold and we've

talked about how. It's a good text by the way,

from the texture. I appreciate it.

It's a great question today. The synthetic track constricts

and expands with the weather and when it's cold it gets really

tight and fast. But it was sort of a normal day

when full effort won and that horse was blazing.

That's why I'm I'm kind of disappointed they're not in the

Derby. 437-9680 Our UPS jobs text line.

We're talking about race 10, the Grade 1 Churchill Downs, since

you're going to try to beat him with the 9 horse here in Crazy

Mason. We talked about him a little bit

before, but boy, never been to Churchill Downs was in the money

seven of eight runs last year. Second off the layoff.

I imagine you're trying to just continue the form cycle out of

that Commonwealth of Keeneland. Yeah, that's that's really the

idea. They it seems like they were

pointing towards this race and they finally get a setup that

they got when they won the card Carter way back in April.

And you saw a crazy Mason that day finished right behind Saudi

crown. Yes, absolutely.

And and this horse came running, just didn't get the setup.

I mean, that race, that Saudi crown won at Keeneland the day

we were there in the Commonwealth, it was just almost

set up for that horse to win that race, but did it

impressively and Crazy Mason had no shot to win it.

You've got imagination, second off the bench here or First off

the bench, I should say. Back from the Riyadh Dirt Sprint

winner there under Flavian Pratt, who gets them out again

here last race on Valentine's Day.

Been a little bit of time, but I think for Bob Baffert, obviously

not a huge deal. We used to talk about the

Arabian Peninsula bounds, right? Coming back.

Just travels tough for horses, you know, readjusting to

everything and the timing in the tracks and all that kind of

stuff. Horse never been to Churchill

Downs, but was a good second place finisher in the Breeders

Cup Sprint. Is this the overlooked horse of

the day? I don't think so.

Like sitting next to Knightsbridge.

I mean, just because this horse. Think this horse is going to

take some action and Knightsbridge is going to come

off that nine to five. I don't think they're going to

get bet like that. I think it's going to be a lot

closer in the odds with Imagination and Cornucopian.

Those 3 should take a lot of money.

Between the three of them, I would say that Knightsbridge is

probably going to be the favorite.

More like 2 to one. Oh OK.

Not 9:00 to 5:00. Get a good number on nice bridge

then. Right.

And I if. You like nice bridge.

That's a good number, right, Right.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, probably the best

number you're going to get on them.

It's probably right for a while. No doubt about it.

Talking through the undercard here, we'll get into our final

Derby conversation at 11 for the The Turf Classic is the race

before the Kentucky Derby race. 11 a mile and an eighth on the

turf course. $1.5 million on the line in the Grade 1 Old Forester

Bourbon Turf Classic. You and I are going to go

different ways in these kinds of races, Barry.

We both have the one in our handicapping.

You happen to have that horse in corruption on top.

Mark Cassie trains. John Velasquez gets them out

again after a neck loss in the mile and a half Pan American.

We're going to go from the 12 furlongs back to 9 in this one.

This horse got the lead last time, Barry, and set fractions

that I think could work in this space. 47 and four, 112 and 2,

two minutes for the for the mile and a quarter itself.

Those are good times, man. And by the way, when people ask

about synthetic turf and dirt, there's a good example in a mile

and a half race, they ran the mile and 1/4 at 2 minutes.

The Derby is going to go over that today, for example, dirt,

right, that kind of thing. And so even that race in a Grade

3 of the turf was faster. Did that horse get the lead and

keep the lead, Barry? I hope so, but they're versatile

enough to actually write off it as well.

They did that in a mile and a half race, but way back when in

in a lower level claimer back in Gulfstream, they they went a

mile and a half and sat off the pace a couple of times.

So it's not like they're it's foreign to them.

So if somebody gets in front of them, it's not the worst thing

in the world. But I just don't see anybody

going in and I think Corruption inherits the lead and hopefully

Johnny V can do exactly what he did in the second race today.

By the way, the the station bet share is up.

It is 78 bucks a share. I see it on Facebook right now,

so if you're looking for it, it's on the Facebook page, which

makes me almost just assume that it is back on for back on for

Twitter and all those things as well yes, excuse me yeah, sorry.

I just saw very sad. I made the mistake of of of

pulling. I was trying to find to see if

the the best share was up and then I saw a very sad post after

that. So I apologize for seeing the

sad post getting distracted in here.

I also threw the 10 in my pick five pick 3 here Barry play in

this race in the turf classic and make me king.

We talked about it with Steve, one that I think if if it gets

the jump has a real shot here too.

Yeah, this source could be any kind.

Those races they were running overseas were very, very tough,

probably tougher than what they're facing today, and this

horse could actually run away with this race.

Quick break so that we can make sure we get out of here on time.

We talk through the Derby field. We do it next.

All right time to fire through the Derby field here on the

Horse Racing Happy Hours Derby 152 preview on ESPN 681057

presented by the Kentucky HPPA KY hppa.com, our friends at

Derby Box and derbybox.com and of course our guy Doctor Chett

Mays at Hair Transport kentuckya.com.

Grade 1 Kentucky Derby 5,000,000 bucks on the line 3 year olds

and here bear going the 10 furlongs mile and 1/4 on that

historic dirt course Churchill Downs Renegade breaks from the

one. What is a fair odds on Renegade

and where would you have him ranked in the top contenders

that can win this race even all things considered 1 hole in all

the things. I'd say 8:00 to 12:50 is

probably I think. That's fair.

Yep. And I'd say more than an average

chance only because of the fact I know this horse is talented,

just needs a a good trip and they're not going to get 1 so

it's tough. Yeah, it's a tough one for sure.

I will still break from the 2 hole.

Another one of those that came through Tampa like Renegade did,

but out of a maiden win like Emerging Market did.

Stepped up into 100 point race wins right away in the Wood

Memorial. Shout out, by the way, a a

double double for the Pin Oak stud people with Elvis and

Incredibles and for Riley Mott with both of those horses as

well. So shout out to Riley, who by

the way, I have gotten to know a little bit this week.

I got to meet his wife at the draw and all the things.

Shout out to Megan, but it's out of y'all.

Pone here. What does the race look like if

Elvis wins it? Complete meltdown where?

Rich Strike style win for Elvis. Everybody's backing up.

Yes, I think that's exactly right.

How about Intrepido? I think the win for him looks

like what he did in his maiden win and then what he did in the

American Pharaoh where for whatever reason, Barry, he

breaks the best of those inside horses and gets to be the speed

on the inside. And then he just gets the lead

and doesn't look back. Somehow I don't see it

happening, but I think that's the scenario in which he wins.

Yeah, I was thinking more like a did Mystic Dan type run could

be. Good for that.

Well, that's more realistic. Yeah, if they can get it, you

know, it's tough getting out of the gate, getting that kind of

position. You know, depending on what

Renegade does it it, it could be really difficult.

Hector Barrios rides there litmus test for the Baffert

Barn. His one of two runners.

I'd like to point something out, Barry.

Litmus test is 26 to 1 and Potentes 20 to 1.

I mean this as nicely as I can. One of those horses should get a

lot more money than the other. And I'm so sorry, Starlight

people, but that ain't a litmus test.

Not for me. I think when you put Martin

Garcia up, you're saying what? Something very, very specific

about a horse. Yeah, he's fast.

He's fast and that's what you're going to go for.

Is that what the scenario is? Old school Bafford, Get the

lead, keep the lead. Yeah, he's got to go.

He's got to step on the gas. Martinez got to get there and

and it might serve kind of as a rabbit for a pretente, so.

In the the five hole, we got a scratch for right to party 6

hole. Commandment is now the favorite

in the Kentucky Derby at 5:00 to 1:00.

And Barry, we've talked about it all week on this show because I

refuse to let it go. In most years he would be the

favorite. I think Barry, frankly, just

resume wise, I'm totally OK with him being a 5 to one favorite.

I'm glad to see a Derby again. And by the way, we got it with

the Oaks yesterday where we're not just getting pounded

favorites for no reason, right? Where people just bet the

favorite to bet the favorite and feel like they're going to be on

a most likely win or whatever it is.

I think we're going to get all of five to 1A Commandment at

worst, nine to two by the time we get to the gate.

And I think, by the way, for a favorite in this year's Derby,

it makes sense. Commandment A worthy favorite.

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.

He's got two triple digit buyers coming into this race.

Both of those races were really, really good.

He galloped out well, all signs point to him running a decent

race, but just not for me. I I think if this horse gets any

kind of stoppage during the race where they have to kind of

change plans or move a certain way, I'm not really too sure

this horse can pick it back up, get back into to running as fast

as they can and and get there. So 5 to 1 as a favorite seems

like a great price, but just not for me.

Commandment 3rd in my handicapping, 4th in yours 5th

in your handicapping is the seven to non bourbon son of

Maxfield a Keeneland Sale graduate.

Nishimura into ride 4 trainer Manabu Ekzoe.

Excuse me, not Ekoe Ekzoe winner the Fuku Rayu, which is the

Japanese prep in Japan. This is a horse that's only go

on right-handed Berry and I know for so many of our colleagues,

especially ahead of the Breeders Cup, they just don't care about

that. Yeah.

They're like, oh, if a horse goes to the right, he goes to

the left. Who cares?

We can do these things, man, all that kind of stuff.

But this is son of Maxfield, man, we got tap it on the damn

side. This isn't like we got to go

deep in the pedigrees and figure out how this horse is related to

Seattle Slew or something. Like we have to do that.

This is just a keeneling grad. This is a 20 and one horse, I

think a worthy 20 to 1 horse. Yeah. 5th in your handicapping.

Would you throw them in a like a trifecta play?

Yeah, absolutely. There you go.

I think so too. Absolutely.

Those horses I, I I would think have stamina the way they train

them it, it seems like that's what their deal is.

I mean, this horse won a 16 horse race first time out and

then. Moved to a mile and three

sixteenths immediately and one for fun.

Yes. That's got to count for

something. Did not bourbon down to 14 to

one out of the Ikazoe Barn there.

Potential Co favorite here. So happy 5 to 1 was 15 to one on

the morning line was probably a little high there.

I think a fair price for me on so Happy is around 12:50.

Barry. I, I think that's totally fair

cuz you do still get Mike Smith. You still do get a horse that

put it together in the, in the San Anita Derby.

I mean, he was great. Let's not we don't have to put

that down at all. He was great in that race.

And if you care about those hundred point races, So happy

makes a lot of sense. I'm just not there at 5:00 to

1:00. No, that I think that price is a

little too short, especially because the horse needed a trip

in order to get that done and they got it and thanks to

Potente kind of going to the lead there.

That's what really set it up. So happy for me.

It's hard to get to. I, I, I don't think this horse

has been consistent enough. I know he has one buyer there

that 7 furlongs at 96 and then 100 going a mile and an eighth.

But I I really don't know if this horse really wants to go a

mile and a quarter being out of run Happy you might be limited

distance wise the 9 Puma has. Scratched out here, Barry, I

told you you would not have had a full Derby experience until

you are on air and tell thousands of people that you're

betting the Puma and the Derby and then he scratches the day of

the race. Welcome to my world with

Rodriguez. Welcome to my world with Omaha

Beach. Those were earlier in the week

though, so I was able to adjust. Does it adjust the totality of

the race for you, or does it just move people up on the

rankings? For you, I think it it, it

changes the race slightly because there's other horses

that wanted to get that same trip that the Puma was projected

to get. So other horses like Further

Ado, I think benefit from it. Potente also benefits from this

scratch. But largely it it doesn't really

change the shape of the race, just who slides into what spot.

Wonder Dean breaking from the 10.

What do I make a Wonder, Dean? It's a total mystery, just a

tight question mark and and you know, it's one of those feasts

of famine. Either this horse is going to

finish in the money or finish dead last.

I don't know which one. I know the horse that beat them

in the Saudi Derby, Al Haram is, is a very, very good horse.

Obliteration is no slouch, but it was only going a mile.

Now they're going a mile and 1/4.

They went in the UAE Derby. They ran really well in that

race, going a mile in three, 16th, but again it was

restricted so tough one. I'll go, I'll go this way.

I'll I'll explain it very simply for me.

If you take put those three horses side by side Danon

Bourbon, Wanderdean and of course the third in Why am I

blanking in Excuse me in 6 speed.

If you gave me the last two, I would I would take the non

bourbon against the other two. Yeah, like I.

I I totally. Agree.

I would have the seven ahead of those two by a long enough

distance that I wouldn't even consider them even if you gave

me them both. Incredible.

Will break from the 11. Our buddy Sean Collins has this

one on top. You heard Danny Brewer as well

today, really singing his praises.

Kind of an under the radar almost second buzz horse in this

race. Yeah.

I think he ran pretty good in in at Colonial in the Virginia

Derby, but not for me. He just hasn't been fast enough.

Chief Wallaby, I know you like a lot.

Down to 6 to 1, Barry. One win all time.

And Chief Wallaby is 6 to one in the Kentucky Derby within a

dollar on your bet of commandment.

That's incredible to say out loud.

But it's Bill Mott. It's Junior Alvarado.

We've seen this story before. Yeah, you finished the neck off

a commandment in the Fountain of Youth and needed the experience.

I think in in the Florida Derby, sets himself up well, gets

blinkers on that workout. The last workout on April 26th,

I know it's this 49 and one breeze, but if you look at that

workout, this horse was well within himself and just looks

like he is ready to pounce. The Derby wind pool just went

over $16,000,000. Chief Wallaby breaks from the

12. No horse in the 13.

Silent Tactic out earlier this week.

Patente breaks from the 14. Son of Into Mischief Going for

yet another Derby win is Into Mischief by Awesome Again on the

damn side. Bob Baffert.

Juan Hernandez 20 to 1. I watched Medina Spirit from the

14 do something exactly the same as this.

I got potente second of my handicapping.

Yeah, this one is definitely a horse on the improve and you can

see it in the buyers. You can see it every race, the

longer the better. They went to the lead last time,

which was kind of puzzling. And then this fast work, I think

it's throwing people off. I think this horse is going to

sit a really good trip. 14 for Potente, 15 for Emerging market.

Another horse who's seen his morning line almost halved.

He's from down from 15 to 9 to 1.

My top pick in this race. If you read Eric Mitchell stuff

at bloodhorse.com, he makes the dosage argument for emerging

market in this field. We also watched Chad Brown pick

off the Oaks yesterday with a third time starter.

Barry, I know you are not as high on emerging market as I am,

but is he with a chance today? Yeah, absolutely.

Especially the way his counterpart and stable mate ran

yesterday, she ran excellent. She was fantastic.

If they get any kind of trip like that, emerging market might

be really tough to. Beat Emerging Market ridden by

Flavian Pratt, his last 12 Triple Crown races outside the

top four only once. So Flavian Pratt almost certain

to be part of your trifecta play today.

That is the 15 in Emerging Market.

Pavlovian comes in Cal bred in the race here, winner of the

Sunland Derby. Berry 2nd place to Emerging

Market in Louisiana Derby 46 to one man.

If you like Emerging market, you like a horse with a bunch of

experience. This is the only one with double

digit starts. I think if you like emerging

market, you got to like Pavlovian.

I don't. This horse has a lot of fighting

him. He's got the most lifetime

starts out of anybody in this field.

That's got to go a long way here.

You know, even when horses start backing up, this one's probably

still going to be running at the end.

I'm putting this horse in a lot of exotics.

My friend Sean Collins has a great piece up about Edwin

Maldonado's first ride in the Derby, his 25th year as a

professional jockey. His first ride in the Kentucky

Derby. And all he said to us was I'm so

glad I'm doing it now. I wasn't ready when I was a

younger man. 6 Speed will break from the 17 for Seymar Bupat

second place finisher in the UAE Derby 50 to one, but boy they

booked Brian Hernandez junior this one now down to 33 to one

here's the thing I think this horse is going to be part of the

early pace or right off of it. Maybe get to sit right behind

Robusta now that that horse has drawn in and then Brian's going

to try to cut the corner. Yeah weirder things than 6 speed

picking off this Derby, but I'll I'll play against there's.

Definitely no weirder thing other than 6 speed winning this

Derby, 6 speed wins I. I think we all might need to

hang it up. No more.

Handicapping of 6. Seats further ado, though.

He wins this thing. I don't think any of us are

surprised. Six to one on the morning line,

That was his. That's his number right now as

well. Yeah, he's he's a really tough

read here, but he's in the precarious position of being

able to not run as fast as he did in his last race and still

win this one. It's just a matter of how much

lower or how much he can actually regress.

I don't think he can pair up one O 6 as he might be able to, but

I still think this horse is going to get a fantastic trip.

Being wide and clear is probably where it's at.

His his run in the Bluegrass kind of hinted to it.

You'll see the horse was about four wide going down the

backstretch settled in nicely, horses around him, and then he's

pushed the button and it was over.

Golden Temple for Sheree Devoe getting some late buzz to hit

the board based on his late run in the New Orleans race there,

the Louisiana Derby. What do you mean to go to the

Golden Temple here? Not on my tickets.

No, not on my tickets, but the horse gets probably the the

setup they haven't gotten since that lecomte back in January.

There should be a lot of pace up front.

I suspect this horse is going to be rolling late.

Great White, Ocelli and Robusta off the also eligibles list.

Great White down to 22 to one. How about that?

So getting. Some money because he's.

Pretty I I think the Gray horse thing does do that right for

sure Ocelli the maiden in for wit back man.

Of course Tyler Gaffalion picks up the mount there.

Robusta probably going to try to press from the outside, get a

break from the 19 gate here Barry is, is Robusta the the

biggest game changer out of that group because that horse is

going to be speed. Yes, he's going to inject some

more speed into this pace, so it should be interesting.

Race. All right, very on top for you

is the 12 horse in chief Wallaby.

You made that change after the Puma went ahead and scratched

out. So you are 12/18/14.

You need a lot of double digit horses here.

Yeah. Yeah, we're going big.

The old 1218 exacta. There you go to the hoop, to the

hoop. Louis will go 1514 and six on

top. I'll go 13 and 18 after that.

Barry and I very much hoping that outside of the 10 is where

the winner comes from on the race card day again, horse

racing, happyhour.com for all of our picks.

Everything's up there free. Make sure you get in on that

with us. We'll wrap up the show next.

Taylor, how much time do we have left back there, buddy?

On the about a minute 45 until music.

All right, perfect. All right, so we got a couple

minutes here. But Barry, thanks so much for

making the trip, man. Again, you and I will be at

Laurel Park in a couple of weeks.

If you happen to be listening in Maryland, excuse me, the Friday

of Black Eyed Susan. We're going to try to keep that

tradition going. And by try, I mean we're going

to, we'll be at Jimmy's Seafood Friday night doing our annual

seminar up on the 2nd floor. Just ask for the horse racing

happy hour. You're there for the Preakness

get together. We'd love to see you that Friday

night. Barry's going to go to a farm

party the day before. When I look at you, I see farm

party. I don't know why you're

laughing. I, I used to wear overalls when

I was a kid, you know, in high school.

One strap kind of thing like the one strap on strap with the you.

Know with the flat top the kid. In play and stuff.

Oh yeah, yeah, man, you had a flat top.

How good was the flat top? Excellent, damn, excellent damn.

I mean, this is what I don't need in my life.

Derby day. I'm trying to have a nice day.

I'm sitting across from you. You look younger than me.

You're older than I am sitting across from Tanner, who's just

covered in hair. I mean, it's just covered.

I mean, top, bottom, everything. I just terrible.

It's just tons of hair and then I'm just bottom hair.

That's a lot. That's not.

Even a thing last name is brutal Mesa.

What are we doing here? It's not a question, man All

right, we'll have a great day out there.

If you are doing that your Derby parties, all that kind of stuff.

Much, much more coverage throughout the day here on ESPN

680 and one O 57. Essentially, man, we're going to

take you right up to and through the Kentucky Derby.

So if you need something on in the background at your Derby

party, if you're driving around, maybe you're working today,

whatever might be going on, go ahead and do all of those

things. Nick Valvetto say, man, I'm

enjoying and listen to you and Barry, we've had a great time

this week. The station pick 5 is up at ESPN

680 on the socials. You can go find that.

It looks like a shares are 78 bucks today.

They are doing a Derby pick five trying to lead into that race.

And boy, if they don't hit this one, Barry, they they they got a

lot of coverage. It's a lot of coverage.

A lot of coverage I'm just fist pumping over here because toward

player just won. How about that Sixth race?

Sixth race? Which number?

6 and I gave out the exacta 611 how about that?

Well, Barry Spears bringing the money.

Yes, Sir. My next pick, three starts in

Race 7. Again horse racing.

happyhour.com. For all of that cover with the

Barry and Tanner and Louis, thanks for hanging out with us.

Happy Derby 152. We'll see you next time on the

Horse Racing Happy Hour.